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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗

Quantum Simulations of Vibrational Strong Coupling via Path Integrals

A quantum simulation of vibrational strong coupling (VSC) in the collective regime via thermostated ring-polymer molecular dynamics (TRPMD) is reported. For a collection of liquid-phase water molecules resonantly coupled to a single lossless cavity mode, the simulation shows that as compared with a fully classical calculation, the inclusion of nuclear and photonic quantum effects does not lead to a change in the Rabi splitting but does broaden polaritonic line widths roughly by a factor of 2. Moreover, under thermal equilibrium, both quantum and classical simulations predict that the static dielectric constant of liquid water is largely unchanged inside vs outside the cavity. Furthermore, this result disagrees with a recent experiment demonstrating that the static dielectric constant of liquid water can be resonantly enhanced under VSC, suggesting either limitations of our approach or perhaps other experimental factors that have not yet been explored.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

How can a diverse set of integral and semi-integral measurements inform identification of discrepant nuclear data?

Nuclear data are used for a variety of applications, including criticality safety, reactor performance, and material safeguards. Despite the breadth of use-cases, the effective neutron multiplication factor, keff, of ICSBEP critical assemblies are primarily used for nuclear data validation; these are sensitive to specific energy regions and nuclides and are unable to uniquely constrain nuclear data. As a consequence, general-purpose nuclear data libraries, such as ENDF/B-VIII.0, may have deficiencies that, while not apparent in criticality applications, negatively impact other applications, such as non-destructive analysis of special nuclear material and neutron diagnosed subcritical experiments. Recent work by the Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data (EUCLID) project developed a machine learning tool, RAFIEKI, which uses random forests and the SHAP metric to determine which nuclear data contribute most to predicted bias between measured and simulated responses (e.g. keff). This paper contrasts RAFIEKI analysis applied to keff only against RAFIEKI analysis with keff paired with either LLNL pulsed sphere measurements or subcritical benchmarks. Two examples show that a) including pulsed sphere measurements substantially increases 9Be nuclear data importance to bias between 2 and 15 MeV, and b) including subcritical benchmarks has the potential for disentangling compensating errors between 240Pu (n,el) and (n,il) cross-sections between 0.1 and 10 MeV. These results show that RAFIEKI analysis applied to response sets that include, but go beyond, keff can aid nuclear data evaluators in identifying issues in nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration

A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.

data visualization↗

Integrating solvation shell structure in experimentally driven molecular dynamics using x-ray solution scattering data

In the past few decades, prediction of macromolecular structures beyond the native conformation has been aided by the development of molecular dynamics (MD) protocols aimed at exploration of the energetic landscape of proteins. Yet, the computed structures do not always agree with experimental observables, calling for further development of the MD strategies to bring the computations and experiments closer together. Here, we report a scalable, efficient MD simulation approach that incorporates an x-ray solution scattering signal as a driving force for the conformational search of stable structural configurations outside of the native basin. We further demonstrate the importance of inclusion of the hydration layer effect for a precise description of the processes involving large changes in the solvent exposed area, such as unfolding. Utilization of the graphics processing unit allows for an efficient all-atom calculation of scattering patterns on-the-fly, even for large biomolecules, resulting in a speed-up of the calculation of the associated driving force. The utility of the methodology is demonstrated on two model protein systems, the structural transition of lysine-, arginine-, ornithine-binding protein and the folding of deca-alanine. We discuss how the present approach will aid in the interpretation of dynamical scattering experiments on protein folding and association.

Hsu, Darren J.↗