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NASA NTRS2014

Development of the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Evolution from MERRA to MERRA2.

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA2) version of the GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System Model - 5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) is currently in use in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at a wide range of resolutions for a variety of applications. Details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the version in the original MERRA reanalysis are presented here. Results of a series of atmosphere-only sensitivity studies are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in physical parameterizations, and the impact of the newly implemented resolution-aware behavior on simulations at different resolutions is demonstrated. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used as part of the GMAO's MERRA2 reanalysis, the global mesoscale "nature run", the real-time numerical weather prediction system, and for atmosphere-only, coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled atmosphere-chemistry simulations. The seasonal mean climate of the MERRA2 version of the GEOS-5 AGCM represents a substantial improvement over the simulated climate of the MERRA version at all resolutions and for all applications. Fundamental improvements in simulated climate are associated with the increased re-evaporation of frozen precipitation and cloud condensate, resulting in a wetter atmosphere. Improvements in simulated climate are also shown to be attributable to changes in the background gravity wave drag, and to upgrades in the relationship between the ocean surface stress and the ocean roughness. The series of "resolution aware" parameters related to the moist physics were shown to result in improvements at higher resolutions, and result in AGCM simulations that exhibit seamless behavior across different resolutions and applications.

AGCM↗

NASA NTRS1991

Surface temperature/heat transfer measurement using a quantitative phosphor thermography system

A relative-intensity phosphor thermography technique developed for surface heating studies in hypersonic wind tunnels is described. A direct relationship between relative emission intensity and phosphor temperature is used for quantitative surface temperature measurements in time. The technique provides global surface temperature-time histories using a 3-CCD (Charge Coupled Device) video camera and digital recording system. A current history of technique development at Langley is discussed. Latest developments include a phosphor mixture for a greater range of temperature sensitivity and use of castable ceramics for inexpensive test models. A method of calculating surface heat-transfer from thermal image data in blowdown wind tunnels is included in an appendix, with an analysis of material thermal heat-transfer properties. Results from tests in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel are presented for a ceramic orbiter configuration and a four-inch diameter hemisphere model. Data include windward heating for bow-shock/wing-shock interactions on the orbiter wing surface, and a comparison with prediction for hemisphere heating distribution.

Buck, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Newly found evidence of Sun-climate relationships

Solar radiation cycles drive climatic changes intercyclically. These interdecadal changes were detected as variations in solar total irradiances over the time period of recorded global surface-air-temperature (SAT) and have been restored utilizing Earth Radiation Budget Channel 10C measurements (1978-1990), Greenwich Observatory faculae data (1874-1975), and Taipei Observatory Active Region data (1964-1991). Analysis of the two separate events was carried out by treating each as a discrete time series determined by the length of each solar cycle. The results show that the global SAT responded closely to the input of solar cyclical activities, S, with a quantitative relation of T = 1.62 * S with a correlation coefficient of 0.61. This correlation peaks at 0.71 with a built-in time lag of 32 months in temperature response. Solar forcing in interannual time scale was also detected and the derived relationship of T = 0.17 * S with a correlation coefficient of 0.66 was observed. Our analysis shows derived climate sensitivities approximately fit the theoretical feedback slope, 4T(sup 3).

Kim, Hongsuk H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Venus O2 visible and IR nightglow: Implications for lower thermosphere dynamics and chemistry

The National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric general circulation model for the Venus thermosphere is modified to examine two observed night airglow features, both of which serve as sensitive tracers of the thermospheric circulation. New O2 nightglow data from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) star tracker (O2 Herzberg II at 400-800 nm) and ground-based telescopes (O2 IR at 1.27 microns) yield additional model constraints for estimating Venus winds over 100-130 km. Atomic oxygen, produced by dayside CO2 photolysis peaking near 110 km, and transported to the nightside by the global wind system, is partially destroyed through three-body recombination, yielding the O2 Herzberg II visible nightglow. This emission is very sensitive to horizontal winds at altitudes between 100 and 130 km. Other trace species catalytic reactions also contribute to the production of the very strong nightside infrared (1.27 microns) emission. This paper examines the dynamical and chemical implications of these new data using the Venus thermospheric general circulation model (VTGCM) as an analysis tool. Three-dimensional calculations are presented for both solar maximum and solar medium conditions, corresponding to early PVO (1979-1981) and PVO entry (mid-1992) time periods. Very distinct periods are identified in which zonal winds are alternately weak and strong in the Venus lower thermosphere. VTGCM sensitivity studies are conducted to assess the impacts of potential changes in thermospheric zonal and day-to-night winds, and eddy diffusion on the corresponding nightglow intensities. It appears that cyclostrophic balance extends above 80 km periodically, owing to a reversal of the upper mesosphere latitudinal temperature gradient, and thereby producing strong zonal winds and correspondingly modified O2 nightglow distributions that are observed.

Bougher, S. W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Efficient Parametric Uncertainty Analysis of an Earth Entry Vehicle Concept Using Least Angle Regression

The objective of this work was to outline and apply an efficient and accurate parametric un-certainty propagation approach to the analysis of convective heating on an Earth entry vehicle concept. The described approach was based on Least Angle Regression used to solve a sparse and underdetermined linear system in the point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos surrogate method. This approach involved an iterative process to computing the non-zero terms of the underlying polynomial chaos model using only enough samples to converge uncertainty interval predictions and Sobol index values based global nonlinear sensitivity estimates. The Earth entry vehicle was analyzed at three points along a representative trajectory for a Mars return mission. 329 sources of uncertainty were identified in the computational fluid dynamics model used to predict the forebody convective heating. These included uncertainty in flow field chemical rates, collision integrals, heats of formation, surface finite rate char model reaction rates, wall roughness height, and the turbulent Schmidt number. Results from this study showed that convective heating uncertainty as high as 50% of the nominal was predicted with only about 50 evaluations of the computational model. This was far fewer than would be required for a sampling-based approach or a full basis polynomial chaos model, which would have required over 50,000 samples. Additionally, results showed that over 90% of the total convective heating uncertainty was due to uncertainty in the N2catalytic rate on the surface, while the remainder of the uncertainty was attributed to the turbulent Schmidt number and the wall roughness uncertainties.

Thomas K West IV↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Reynolds Number Testing of the NATO AVT-298 SWiFT Configuration at the National Transonic Facility

A high Reynolds number wind tunnel test of the NATO AVT-298 Swept Wing Flow Test (SWiFT) configuration was conducted in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center during the summer of 2023. The SWiFT research model geometry has relevance to both blended/hybrid wing body (BWB/HWB) and unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) configurations, and the test campaign was the culmination of an international collaboration under the NATO AVT-298 research task group. The main objectives of the test were to investigate Reynolds number scaling effects on low-speed stability & control characteristics and to examine the onset and progression of flow separation on the wings particularly near the wing crank. Force & moment and surface pressure data were acquired at Mach numbers from 0.2 to 0.8, Reynolds numbers from 2.5 to 34 million, angles of attack from -3 to 20 degrees, and sideslip angles from -10 to 10 degrees. Boundary layer transition detection techniques utilizing static pressure taps, unsteady pressure transducers, and sublimating chemicals were used on the model in a free/natural transition state or a forced transition state using trip dots. Pressure sensitive paint was used to obtain a global surface pressure profile on the model and an advanced laser velocimetry technique was used to obtain velocity measurements in the wake downstream of the wing crank. The results from the test showed clear Reynolds number scaling effects on the maximum lift coefficient and pitching moment coefficient at Mach 0.2, while also capturing significant hysteresis effects. The data acquired from the test will ultimately help improve computational aerodynamic analysis and design tools for application to future BWB-type vehicle configurations.

NATO AVT-298↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Reynolds Number Testing of the NATO AVT-298 SWiFT Configuration at the National Transonic Facility

BWB/HWB↗

NASA NTRS1980

Energy-balance climate models

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

North, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Energy balance climate models

An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

North, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Space Geodesy Project and Radio Frequency Interference Characterization and Mitigation

The Space Geodesy Project (SGP) development by NASA is an effort to co-locate the four international geodetic techniques Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR), Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) into one tightly referenced campus and coordinated reference frame analysis. The SGP requirement locates these stations within a small area to maintain line-of-sight and frequent automated survey known as the vector tie system. This causes a direct conflict with the new broadband VLBI technique. Broadband means 2-14 GHz, and RFI susceptibility at -80 dBW or higher due to sensitive RF components in the front end of the radio receiver.

Lawrence, Hilliard M.↗

NASA NTRS1996

NASA Space Missions to Asteroids: Protecting the Earth from NEO Impacts

There is now a general recognition of the hazard of impacts on Earth by comets and asteroids, but there is yet no consensus concerning international actions that should be taken to protect the planet from such impacts. An essential step in the analysis of the situation involves estimating the relative hazard posed by comets and asteroids of different sizes and orbits. All recent studies agree that the larger impacts pose the greater danger, and that our primary concern from the perspective of total risk should be on impacts that are large enough to cause global ecological catastrophe. These global catastrophes are also of special interest, since they (alone among natural disasters) have the potential to destroy civilization. Studies of the sensitivity of the Earth's environment suggest that the energy threshold energy for causing a global catastrophe is at about 1 million megatons, corresponding to impactor diameters of 1.5 to 2 km. This information leads naturally to a strategy of concentrating on the larger NEOs, say those 1 km or more in diameter. This is the rationale for the Spaceguard Survey, which must be the highest priority in mitigation efforts. The second question concerns the value of developing standing defensive systems that could deflect or destroy an incoming NEO. In the case of the asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter, no such system is needed, since there will be ample time (at least several decades) between the discovery of the threatening object by Spaceguard and the requirement to take action against it. In the case of objects smaller than 1 km diameter, development of defensive systems is not cost-effective; there are many greater dangers to persons and property that are much more urgent. Only in the case of large long-period comets is there a rationale for standing defense systems. The question is also raised whether the risks inherent in developing and maintaining a defense system might be greater than the impact risks it is intended to guard against. These and related issues are the focus of much current international debate on defense of the planet against NEO impacts. Meanwhile, the most critical issue remains the expansion of the telescopic search for NEOs.

Morrison, David↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Next Generation of Mars-GRAM and Its Role in the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Plan

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM 2010 is currently being used to develop the onboard atmospheric density estimator that is part of the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Plan. In previous versions, Mars-GRAM was less than realistic when used for sensitivity studies for Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) MapYear=0 and large optical depth values, such as tau=3. A comparison analysis has been completed between Mars-GRAM, TES and data from the Planetary Data System (PDS) resulting in updated coefficients for the functions relating density, latitude, and longitude of the sun. The adjustment factors are expressed as a function of height (z), Latitude (Lat) and areocentric solar longitude (Ls). The latest release of Mars-GRAM 2010 includes these adjustment factors that alter the in-put data from MGCM and MTGCM for the Mapping Year 0 (user-controlled dust) case. The greatest adjustment occurs at large optical depths such as tau greater than 1. The addition of the adjustment factors has led to better correspondence to TES Limb data from 0-60 km as well as better agreement with MGS, ODY and MRO data at approximately 90-135 km. Improved simulations utilizing Mars-GRAM 2010 are vital to developing the onboard atmospheric density estimator for the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Plan. Mars-GRAM 2010 was not the only planetary GRAM utilized during phase 1 of this plan; Titan-GRAM and Venus-GRAM were used to generate density data sets for Aerobraking Design Reference Missions. These data sets included altitude profiles (both vertical and along a trajectory), GRAM perturbations (tides, gravity waves, etc.) and provided density and scale height values for analysis by other Autonomous Aero-braking team members.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Basic Mechanisms of Solar Variability

In order to simulate the behavior of a changing Sun in a realistic way, researchers have used a perturbation analysis (the results are summarized in Endal et al. 1985). In this approach, they use a standard solar model and then vary several of the model parameters to mimic the sudden or gradual change of some physical property within the Sun. The evolution following the perturbation is followed in a physically self-consistent way, that is, hydrostatic and thermal processes occur in their normal timescales. This treatment has allowed us to determine the sensitivity of the various global parameters to physical processes affecting the solar interior, and it has guided us in defining the least complex global solar model which can address the question of climatically significant variability. Not surprisingly, magnetic fields play the crucial role. The current status of the model, what researchers have already learned from it, and the future prospects are discussed.

Sofia, Sabatino↗

NASA NTRS1993

Is Large-Scale Low-Frequency Variability Satisfying Linear Barotropic Vorticity Dynamics?

What is the dynamics governing the sea level variabilities at spatial scales larger than the mesoscale and periods longer than a few weeks? This question is investigated using the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data. For periods shorter than a decade, it is believed that the large-scale variabilities in the open ocean should be barotropic and can be described by the barotropic vorticity equation. To avoid the error-sensitive Laplacian operator, the above equation was integrated over a large area. Preliminary analysis was performed in the northeastern Pacific, where the eddy energy is relatively low and the bathymetry is relatively smooth. Good correlation between the two sides of the equation was obtained at periods longer than 60 days. The largest error in the data is suspected to be the ocean tides. Empirical correction for the ocean tides will be performed for further analysis. Preliminary results of a global calculation will be presented.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

NASA NTRS2023

Modeling Dust Mineralogical Composition: Sensitivity to Soil Mineralogy Atlases and Their Expected Climate Impacts

Soil dust aerosols are a key component of the climate system, as they interact with short- and long-wave radiation, alter cloud formation processes, affect atmospheric chemistry and play a role in biogeochemical cycles by providing nutrient inputs such as iron and phosphorus. The influence of dust on these processes depends on its physicochemical properties, which, far from being homogeneous, are shaped by its regionally varying mineral composition. The relative amount of minerals in dust depends on the source region and shows a large geographical variability. However, many state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs), upon which climate analyses and projections rely, still consider dust mineralogy to be invariant. The explicit representation of minerals in ESMs is more hindered by our limited knowledge of the global soil composition along with the resulting size-resolved airborne mineralogy than by computational constraints. In this work we introduce an explicit mineralogy representation within the state-of-the-art Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry (MONARCH) model. We review and compare two existing soil mineralogy datasets, which remain a source of uncertainty for dust mineralogy modeling and provide an evaluation of multiannual simulations against available mineralogy observations. Soil mineralogy datasets are based on measurements performed after wet sieving, which breaks the aggregates found in the parent soil. Our model predicts the emitted particle size distribution (PSD) in terms of its constituent minerals based on brittle fragmentation theory (BFT), which reconstructs the emitted mineral aggregates destroyed by wet sieving. Our simulations broadly reproduce the most abundant mineral fractions independently of the soil composition data used. Feldspars and calcite are highly sensitive to the soil mineralogy map, mainly due to the different assumptions made in each soil dataset to extrapolate a handful of soil measurements to arid and semi-arid regions worldwide. For the least abundant or more difficult-to-determine minerals, such as iron oxides, uncertainties in soil mineralogy yield differences in annual mean aerosol mass fractions of up to ∼ 100 %. Although BFT restores coarse aggregates including phyllosilicates that usually break during soil analysis, we still identify an overestimation of coarse quartz mass fractions (above 2 µm in diameter). In a dedicated experiment, we estimate the fraction of dust with undetermined composition as given by a soil map, which makes up ∼ 10 % of the emitted dust mass at the global scale and can be regionally larger. Changes in the underlying soil mineralogy impact our estimates of climate-relevant variables, particularly affecting the regional variability of the single-scattering albedo at solar wavelengths or the total iron deposited over oceans. All in all, this assessment represents a baseline for future model experiments including new mineralogical maps constrained by high-quality spaceborne hyperspectral measurements, such as those arising from the NASA Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission.

Soil dust↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Dependence of Ocean Surface Emissivity on Wind Vector as Measured with TMR

Global TMR brightness temperature observations at 18, 21, and 37 GHz have been colocated with near-simultaneous SeaWinds wind vector data as well as with a monthly SST climatological product. The combined data allow us to study the dependence of ocean surface emissivity, at each frequency, upon both wind speed and direction. Results show a clear two-branch wind speed dependence; weak and linear below 6 m/s with an abrupt increase in sensitivity above that point. Our analysis also shows that the nadir-view ocean surface emissivity depends on the angle between the wind direction and TMR's antenna polarization orientation.

Tran, N.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Variability of Antarctic Sea Ice 1979-1998

The principal characteristics of the variability of Antarctic sea ice cover as previously described from satellite passive-microwave observations are also evident in a systematically-calibrated and analyzed data set for 20.2 years (1979-1998). The total Antarctic sea ice extent (concentration > 15 %) increased by 13,440 +/- 4180 sq km/year (+1.18 +/- 0.37%/decade). The area of sea ice within the extent boundary increased by 16,960 +/- 3,840 sq km/year (+1.96 +/- 0.44%/decade). Regionally, the trends in extent are positive in the Weddell Sea (1.5 +/- 0.9%/decade), Pacific Ocean (2.4 +/- 1.4%/decade), and Ross (6.9 +/- 1.1 %/decade) sectors, slightly negative in the Indian Ocean (-1.5 +/- 1.8%/decade, and strongly negative in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector (-9.5 +/- 1.5%/decade). For the entire ice pack, small ice increases occur in all seasons with the largest increase during autumn. On a regional basis, the trends differ season to season. During summer and fall, the trends are positive or near zero in all sectors except the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. During winter and spring, the trends are negative or near zero in all sectors except the Ross Sea, which has positive trends in all seasons. Components of interannual variability with periods of about 3 to 5 years are regionally large, but tend to counterbalance each other in the total ice pack. The interannual variability of the annual mean sea-ice extent is only 1.6% overall, compared to 5% to 9% in each of five regional sectors. Analysis of the relation between regional sea ice extents and spatially-averaged surface temperatures over the ice pack gives an overall sensitivity between winter ice cover and temperature of -0.7% change in sea ice extent per K. For summer, some regional ice extents vary positively with temperature and others negatively. The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice cover is counter to the observed decreases in the Arctic. It is also qualitatively consistent with the counterintuitive prediction of a global atmospheric-ocean model of increasing sea ice around Antarctica with climate warming due to the stabilizing effects of increased snowfall on the Southern Ocean.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2012

Simulation of the Intraseasonal Variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in Climate Models

During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode. Further analysis illustrates that the observed 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC is closely linked to the eastward propagating ISV signals from the Indian Ocean/Western Pacific, which is in agreement with the general impression that the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC could be a local expression of the global Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In contrast, the convective signals associated with the 40-day mode over the EPAC in most of the GCM simulations tend to originate between 150degE and 150degW, suggesting the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC might be sustained without the forcing by the eastward propagating MJO. Further investigation is warranted towards improved understanding of the origin of the ISV over the EPAC.

Intraseasonal Variability↗