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At least 217 records · Page 12

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We study a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and will be required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and a bias correction of forecast anomalies. In brief, the distortion is determined by minimizing the objective function by varying the displacement and bias correction fields. In the present project we use a global or hemispheric domain, and spherical harmonics to represent these fields. In this project we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically we study the forecast errors of the 500 hPa geopotential height field for forecasts of the short and medium range. The forecasts are those of the Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation system. Results presented show that the methodology works, that a large part of the total error may be explained by a distortion limited to triangular truncation at wavenumber 10, and that the remaining residual error contains mostly small spatial scales.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Utilization of STRAT Data

One of the goals of the STRAT mission was to improve our understanding of transport in the stratosphere. We have used our coupled 2-D model to analyse transport between the tropics and midlatitudes using aircraft measurements of (CO2) and (N2O) made during the SPADE and ASHOE/MAESA campaigns (Boering et al. 1994) for model validation. We have further used the model to estimate errors in the experimental determination of the age of stratospheric air that arise from nonlinear increases of real tracers such as (CO2) and (SF6). The interpretation of measurements made during STRAT is still in progress. Most of the work performed under this contract has been described in the second year progress report, submitted in April of 1996. In the following, the research is summarized and some additional work that has become relevant in the meantime is described. We have developed an interactive model of the dynamics, chemistry and radiation of the stratosphere with partial support from this contract. The dynamics module integrates the primitive equations on a sphere. Lower boundary zonal winds and eddy geopotential heights are specified from observations. Chemistry and tracer transport are done in two dimensions. The chemistry model is a family model. Long lived species are transported and short lived species are determined in intervals of 5 to 10 days by assuming photochemical steady state. Full diurnal integrations with the fast species are performed periodically and diurnal coefficients, derived from the explicit integration are used to determine the steady state solution. Heating rates in the stratosphere are calculated from model ozone and the model temperatures and circulation fields are used in the chemistry transport module.

Source record↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has several important applications, including the model assessment application and the objective analysis application. In this project, we have focused on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP), the 500 hPa geopotential height, and the 315 K potential vorticity fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. The forecasts are generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system with and without ERS-1 scatterometer data. A great deal of novel work has been accomplished under the current contract. In broad terms, we have developed and tested an efficient algorithm for determining distortions. The algorithm and constraints are now ready for application to larger data sets to be used to determine the statistics of the distortion as outlined above, and to be applied in data analysis by using GEOS water vapor imagery to correct short-term forecast errors.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Improving Assimilated Global Data Sets using TMI Rainfall and Columnar Moisture Observations

A global analysis that optimally combine observations from diverse sources with physical models of atmospheric and land processes can provide a comprehensive description of the climate systems. Currently, such data products contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. In this study, we show that assimilating precipitation and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the large-scale circulation produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS). In particular, assimilating TMI rain improves clouds and radiation in areas of active convection, as well as the latent heating distribution and the large-scale motion field in the tropics, while assimilating TMI TPW heating distribution and the large-scale motion field in the tropics, while assimilating TMI TPW retrievals leads to reduced moisture biases and improved radiative fluxes in clear-sky regions. The improved analysis also improves short-range forecasts in the tropics. Ensemble forecasts initialized with the GEOS analysis incorporating TMI rain rates and TPW yield smaller biases in tropical precipitation forecasts beyond 1 day and better 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts up to 5 days. Results of this study demonstrate the potential of using high-quality space-borne rainfall and moisture observations to improve the quality of assimilated global data for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Interannual Fluctuations in Atmospheric Angular Momentum Simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Medium Range Forecast Model

An earlier study established the existence of globally coherent interannual fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In this paper, we pursue the origin and the structure of these fluctuations using an ensemble of experiments generated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, medium range forecast model version 9. In the control experiments, where the observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were used as the lower boundary conditions, the model captures the characteristic V-like structure in time-latitude plots of zonally averaged AAM, while experiments with climatological SSTs and those with either perpetual warm or cold ENSO conditions superimposed on the climatological SSTs failed to reproduce this structure. The numerical results indicate that these AAM structures are related to SST variations associated with transitions between different phases of the ENSO cycle and have both propagating and standing components. The largest zonal wind contribution from the levels studied (850, 500, and 200 hPa) is at 200 hPa, where the tropical convective outflow is the strongest. Composites of zonal wind and geopotential height show a clear relationship between the stages of the global AAM oscillation and the ENSO cycle. The strong similarity between the simulated and observed AAM series attests to the model's ability to realistically simulate the interannual response of the atmosphere to ENSO SST anomalies.

Mo, Kingtse C.↗

A Three-Wave Model of the Stratosphere with Coupled Dynamics, Radiation and Photochemistry

A zonal mean chemistry transport model (2-D CTM) coupled with a semi-spectral dynamical model is used to simulate the distributions of trace gases in the present day atmosphere. The zonal-mean and eddy equations for the velocity and the geopotential height are solved in the semi-spectral dynamical model. The residual mean circulation is derived from these dynamical variables and used to advect the chemical species in the 2- D CTM. Based on a linearized wave transport equation, the eddy diffusion coefficients for chemical tracers are expressed in terms of the amplitude, frequency and growth rate of dynamical waves; local chemical loss rates; and a time constant parameterizing small scale mixing. The contributions to eddy flux are from the time varying wave amplitude (transient eddy), chemical reactions (chemical eddy) and small scale mixing. In spite of the high truncation in the dynamical module (only three longest waves are resolved), the model has simulated many observed characteristics of stratospheric dynamics and distribution of chemical species including ozone. Compared with the values commonly used in 2-D CTMs, the eddy diffusion coefficients for chemical species calculated in this model are smaller, especially in the subtropics. It is also found that the chemical eddy diffusion has only a small effects in determining the distribution of most slow species, including ozone in the stratosphere.

Shia, Run-Lie↗

Performance of the GEOS-3/Terra Data Assimilation System in the Northern Stratospheric Winter 1999/2000

As part of NASA's support for the Terra satellite, which became operational in January 2000, the Data Assimilation Office introduced a new version of the GEOS data assimilation system (DAS) in November 1999. This system, GEOS-3/Terra, differs from its predecessor in several ways, notably through an increase in horizontal resolution (from 2-by-2.5 degrees to 1-by-1 degree), a slightly lower upper boundary (0.1 instead of 0.01hPa) with fewer levels (48 as opposed to 70), and substantial changes to the tropospheric physics package. This paper will address the performance of the GEOS-3/Terra DAS in the stratosphere. it focusses on the analyses (produced four times daily) and the five-day forecasts (produced twice daily). These were important for the meteorological support of the SAGE-3 Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment, based in Kiruna, Northern Sweden, in the winter of 1999/2000. It is shown that the analyses of basic meteorological fields (temperature, geopotential height, and horizontal wind) are in good agreement with those from other centers. The analyses captured the cold polar vortex which persisted through most of the winter. It is shown that forecasts (up to five days) tend to have a warm bias, which is important for the prediction of polar stratospheric clouds, which are triggered by temperatures of 195K (or lower). The importance of accurate upper tropospheric forecasts in predicting the stratospheric flow is highlighted in the context of the evolution of the shape of the stratospheric polar vortex. A prominent blocking high in the Atlantic region in January was an important factor determining the shape of the distorted lower stratospheric vortex; the predictive skill of these features was strongly coupled in the GEOS-3/Terra system.

Pawson, S.↗

Improving Global Analysis and Short-Range Forecast Using Rainfall and Moisture Observations Derived from TRMM and SSM/I Passive Microwave Instruments

The Global Precipitation Mission, a satellite project under consideration as a follow-on to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) by the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) in the United States, the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) in Japan, and other international partners, comprises an improved TRMM-like satellite and a constellation of 8 satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers to provide global rainfall measurements at 3-hour intervals. The success of this concept relies on the merits of rainfall estimates derived from passive microwave radiometers. This article offers a proof-of-concept demonstration of the benefits of using, rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) information derived from such instruments in global data assimilation with observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and 2 Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instruments. Global analyses that optimally combine observations from diverse sources with physical models of atmospheric and land processes can provide a comprehensive description of the climate systems. Currently, such data analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. We show that assimilating the 6-h averaged TMI and SSM/I surface rainrate and TPW retrievals improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the upper tropospheric moisture in the analysis produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System, as verified against radiation measurements by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and brightness temperature observations by the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) instruments. Typically, rainfall assimilation improves clouds and radiation in areas of active convection, as well as the latent heating and large-scale motions in the tropics, while TPW assimilation leads to reduced moisture biases and improved radiative fluxes in clear-sky regions. Ensemble forecasts initialized with analyses that incorporate TMI and SSM/I rainfall and TPW data also yield better short-range predictions of geopotential heights, winds, and precipitation in the tropics. This study offers a compelling illustration of the potential of using rainfall and TPW information derived from passive microwave instruments to significantly improve the quality of 4-dimensional global datasets for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Troposphere-Stratosphere Dynamic Coupling Under Strong and Weak Polar Vortex Conditions

The relationship between Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropospheric and stratospheric wave-like anomalies of spherical zonal wave number (ZWN) 1 is studied by applying Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). A lag-correlation technique is used with 10-day lowpass filtered daily time series of 50- and 500-hPa geopotential heights. Generally stratospheric circulation is determined by ultralong tropospheric planetary waves. During winter seasons characterized either by any anomalously strong or weak polar winter vortex different propagation characteristics for waves of ZWN 1 are observed. The non-linear perspective of the results have implications for medium range weather forecast and climate sensitivity experiments.

Perlwitz, Judith↗

Impacts of ENSO on the South American Summer Monsoon During 1997-1999

Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis, and CPC Merged Analysis Product (CMAP) rainfall, we have compared and contrasted the anomalies of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) during two extreme years of 1997/98 (EI Nino) and 1998/99 (La Nina). The results are assessed against a "canonical" ENSO response (CER) pattern for the SASM obtained from empirical mode decomposition based on a previous period (1980-1995). Overall, the SASM anomalies compare well with CER, but with some important differences. Anomalies occurring in the warm phase of the 1997-98 El Nino are very significant and robust, while those occurring in 1998/99 La Nina, appear to be reversed from 1997/98, but are relatively weak and less well-defined. The most pronounced signal in DJF 1997/98 is the development of drought conditions in northern Brazil, excessive rainfall over northern Peru and Ecuador, and over Uruguay and southern Brazil. The tropical rainfall anomalies are associated with the eastward shift of the Walker circulation, which is represented by pronounced low-level anomalous westerlies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and easterlies over northern Brazil. The easterlies are deflected sharply southeastward by the steep topography of the Andes, enhancing the low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the Andes near 15-20 S. The LLJ penetrates deep into the extratropics, yielding rainfall anomalies further poleward compared to CER. During DJF 1997/98, the eastward expansion of the warm tropospheric temperature over the Nino-3 region causes anomalous geopotential height to develop in the upper troposphere above the Altiplano, leading to a strengthened Bolivian High. An upper-tropospheric jet anomaly maximum is found over the subtropical continent near 30 S, due to increasing meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature, as well as teleconnection patterns linking the South Pacific and the South Atlantic. Consistent with the CER, the South Pacific High is weakened, and the South Atlantic High is strengthened in DJF 1997/98. However, rather than appearing as a coherent large scale signal over the entire Atlantic as in CER, the South Atlantic High anomalies in DJF 1997/98 split into two separate high pressure centers; one located south of the Amazon basin, and another over the southeastern South Atlantic. The former is induced as a Rossby-wave response by ENSO-Induced sinking motion over nor-them and eastern Brazil, and the latter may be associated with extratropical teleconnection signals. Anomalous convection observed over equatorial western Africa may also have contributed to the different circulation response over the Atlantic in DFJ 1997/99 compared to the CER. Comparison of the evolution of the SASM anomalies in 1997-99 with their corresponding annual cycles, suggest that the anomalies are phase-locked to and represent either enhancement or reduction of the annual variations. Results suggest that, from a system perspective the SASM was strengthened during the 1997/98 El Nino and weakened, albeit to a lesser extent, during the 1998/99 La Nina.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: The Climate of the FVCCM-3 Model - Volume 20

This document describes the climate of version 1 of the NASA-NCAR model developed at the Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model consists of a new finite-volume dynamical core and an implementation of the NCAR climate community model (CCM-3) physical parameterizations. The version of the model examined here was integrated at a resolution of 2 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude and 32 levels. The results are based on assimilation that was forced with observed sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 1979-1995, and are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and various other observational data sets. The results include an assessment of seasonal means, subseasonal transients including the Madden Julian Oscillation, and interannual variability. The quantities include zonal and meridional winds, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, stream function, velocity potential, precipitation, sea level pressure, and cloud radiative forcing.

Suarez, Max J.↗

Satellite and Model Analysis of the Atmospheric Moisture Budget in High Latitudes

In order to understand variations of accumulation over Greenland, it is necessary to investigate precipitation and its variations. Observations of precipitation over Greenland are limited and generally inaccurate, but the analyzed wind, geopotential height, and moisture fields are available for recent years. The objective of this study is to enhance the dynamic method for retrieving high resolution precipitation over Greenland from the analyzed fields. The dynamic method enhanced in this study is referred to as the improved dynamic method.

Bromwich, David H.↗

Comparison of Mean Climate Trends in the Northern Hemisphere Between N.C.E.P. and Two Atmosphere-Ocean Model Forced Runs

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure, surface temperature, 850, 500 and 200 mb geopotential heights and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared to those obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction observations. A spatial correlation analysis and mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere (NH) because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the observed regional and NH climate trends makes it reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Lucarini, Valerio↗

Role of Stratospheric Air in a Severe Weather Event: Analysis of Potential Vorticity and Total Ozone

The role of dry stratospheric air descending to low and middle tropospheric levels in a severe weather outbreak in the midwestern United States is examined using ACCEPT Eta model output, Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses, and Earth probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP/TOMS) total ozone data. While stratospheric air was not found to play a direct role in the convection, backward trajectories show stratospheric air descended to 800 hPa just west of the convection. Damaging surface winds not associated with thunderstorms also occurred in the region of greatest stratospheric descent. Small-scale features in the high-resolution total ozone data compare favorably with geopotential heights and potential vorticity fields, supporting the notion that stratospheric air descended to near the surface. A detailed vertical structure in the potential vorticity appears to be captured by small-scale total ozone variations. The capability of the total ozone to identify mesoscale features assists model verification. The total ozone data suggest biases in the RUC analysis and Eta forecast of this event. The total ozone is also useful in determining whether potential vorticity is of stratospheric origin or is diabatically generated in the troposphere.

Goering, Melissa A.↗

Antarctic Polar Descent and Planetary Wave Activity Observed in ISAMS CO from April to July 1992

Antarctic polar descent and planetary wave activity in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere are observed in ISAMS CO data from April to July 1992. CO-derived mean April-to-May upper stratosphere descent rates of 15 K/day (0.25 km/day) at 60 S and 20 K/day (0.33 km/day) at 80 S are compared with descent rates from diabatic trajectory analyses. At 60 S there is excellent agreement, while at 80 S the trajectory-derived descent is significantly larger in early April. Zonal wavenumber 1 enhancement of CO is observed on 9 and 28 May, coincident with enhanced wave 1 in UKMO geopotential height. The 9 May event extends from 40 to 70 km and shows westward phase tilt with height, while the 28 May event extends from 40 to 50 km and shows virtually no phase tilt with height.

Allen, D. R.↗

Satellite and Model Analysis of the Atmospheric Moisture Budget in High Latitudes: High Resolution Precipitation Over Greenland Studied from Dynamic Method

Observations of precipitation over Greenland are limited. Direct precipitation measurements for the whole ice sheet are impractical, and those in the coastal region have substantial uncertainty but may be correctable with some effort. However, the analyzed wind, geopotential height and moisture fields are available for recent years, and the precipitation is retrievable from these fields by a dynamic method. Based on recent Greenland precipitation from dynamic studies, several deficiencies in the precipitation spatial distributions from these dynamic methods were evaluated by Bromwich et al.

Bromwich, David H.↗

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and its Impact on Northern Hemisphere Weather Predictability during Wintertime

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known as the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability and has an important role in the coupled-atmosphere system. This study used twin numerical model experiments to investigate the influence of the MJO activity on weather predictability in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard laboratory for the Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model was first used in a 10-yr simulation with fixed climatological SSTs to generate a validation data set as well as to select initial conditions for active MJO periods and Null cases. Two perturbation numerical experiments were performed for the 75 cases selected [(4 MJO phases + Null phase) _ 15 initial conditions in each]. For each alternative initial condition, the model was integrated for 90 days. Mean anomaly correlations in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (2O deg N_60 deg.N) and standardized root-mean-square errors were computed to validate forecasts and control run. The analyses of 500-hPa geopotential height, 200-hPa Streamfunction and 850-hPa zonal wind component systematically show larger predictability during periods of active MJO as opposed to quiescent episodes of the oscillation.

Jones, Charles↗