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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental determination of hydrogen isotopic equilibrium in the system H 2 O (l) -H 2(g) from 3 to 90 °C

Molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) is found in a variety of settings on and in the Earth from low-temperature sediments to hydrothermal vents, and is actively being considered as an energy resource for the transition to a green energy future. The hydrogen isotopic composition of H 2 , given as D/H ratios or δD, varies in nature by hundreds of per mil from ∼−800 ‰ in hydrothermal and sedimentary systems to ∼+450 ‰ in the stratosphere. This range reflects a variety of processes, including kinetic isotope effects associated with formation and destruction and equilibration with water, the latter proceeding at fast (order year) timescales at low temperatures (<100 °C). At isotopic equilibrium, the D/H fractionation factor between liquid water and hydrogen ( D α H2O(l)-H2(g) ) is a function of temperature and can thus be used as a geothermometer for H 2 formation or re-equilibration temperatures. Multiple studies have produced theoretical calculations for hydrogen isotopic equilibrium between H 2 and water vapor. However, only three published experimental calibrations used in geochemistry exist for the H 2 O-H 2 system: two between 51 and 742 °C for H 2 O (g) -H 2(g) (Suess, 1949, Cerrai et al., 1954), and one in the H 2 O (l) -H 2(g) system for temperatures <100 °C (Rolston et al., 1976). Despite these calibrations existing, there is uncertainty on their accuracy at low temperatures (<100 °C; e.g., Horibe and Craig, 1995).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2019

Scaling the impacts of pore-scale characteristics on unstable supercritical CO 2 -water drainage using a complete capillary number

Geological carbon storage in deep aquifers involves displacement of resident brine by supercritical CO 2 (scCO 2 ), which is an unstable drainage process caused by the invasion of less viscous scCO 2 . The unstable drainage is greatly complicated by aquifer heterogeneity and anisotropy and regarded as one of the key factors accounting for the uncertainty in storage capacity estimates. The impacts of pore-scale characteristics on the unstable drainage remain poorly understood. In this study, scCO 2 drainage experiments were conducted at 40 °C and 9 MPa using a homogeneous elliptical micromodel with low or high anisotropy, a homogeneous/isotropic hexagonal micromodel, and a heterogeneous sandstone-analog micromodel. Each initially water-saturated micromodel was invaded by scCO 2 at different rates with logC a (the capillary number) ranging from -7.6 to -4.4, and scCO 2 /water images were obtained. The measured CO 2 saturations in these centimeter-scale micromodels vary considerably from 0.08 to 0.93 depending on the pore-scale characteristics and capillary number. It was also observed that scCO 2 drainage follows the classic flow-regime transition from capillary fingering through crossover to viscous fingering for either of the low-anisotropy elliptical and heterogeneous micromodels, but with disparate crossover zones. The crossover zones of scCO 2 saturation were then unified with the minimum scCO 2 saturation occurring at logC$_a^*$ = -4.0 using the complete capillary number (C$_a^*$)that considers pore characteristics. For the hexagonal and the high-anisotropy elliptical micromodels, a monotonic increase in scCO 2 saturation with increasing C$_a^*$ (without crossover) was observed. It appears that the complete capillary number is more appropriate than the classic capillary number when characterizing flow regimes and CO 2 saturation in different pore networks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

mathematical models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Refining Principal Stress Measurements in Reservoir Underburden in Regions of Induced Seismicity through Seismological Tools, Laboratory Experiments - Final Technical Report

This project developed methodologies to measure the in-situ principal stress in the deep subsurface through use of multiple independent, but complementary, seismic methods, laboratory verification, and development of theoretical frameworks. By leveraging existing regional and local datasets we developed, tested, and refined a set of diagnostic tools for determining the in-situ stress state with reduced uncertainty at and below reservoir depths (1.5-6 km). A set of novel tools was produced that are scale independent, such that their utility is equivalent on regional, field scale, and near borehole monitoring of principal stresses in reservoir underburden for carbon storage projects. During a 4-year Department of Energy (DOE) and Southern Company funded project, carried out by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the University of Oklahoma (OU), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the project team developed methodologies to measure the far-field in-situ principal stress in the deep subsurface, leveraging induced seismicity data from waste-water disposal projects. These methodologies consisted in the use of well-established and technically advanced seismic processing methods, such as virtual seismometer method-moment tensor (VSM-MT) and shear wave splitting (SWS), that are adept at recovering the stress orientation and certain components of the stress tensor. These methods were applied to robust seismicity catalogs created with matched filter techniques near sites of active fluid disposal—a proxy for carbon storage sites where such datasets are more limited. Estimates of the stress orientation made with seismic processing tools were considered along with laboratory acoustic emission experiments conducted on rock samples from the region of interest. Stress orientations in the studied region do not vary significantly across distances of ~100 km, nor are they found to rotate through time as a consequence of local wastewater disposal, as previously speculated. Finally, the project team investigated the trade-offs among the different seismic methods and evaluated the range of uncertainty that is generated with these methodologies, which led to a practical use and refinement of the VSM-MT technique when it is applied to field datasets. Understanding the trade-offs between these different methods highlighted the potential benefits of improved quantification of uncertainties on stress field estimations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scale-Dependent Value of QPF for Real-Time Streamflow Forecasting

Incorporating rainfall forecasts into a real-time streamflow forecasting system extends the forecast lead time. Since quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are subject to substantial uncertainties, questions arise on the trade-off between the time horizon of the QPF and the accuracy of the streamflow forecasts. This study explores the problem systematically, exploring the uncertainties associated with QPFs and their hydrologic predictability. The focus is on scale dependence of the trade-off between the QPF time horizon, basin-scale, space-time scale of the QPF, and streamflow forecasting accuracy. To address this question, the study first performs a comprehensive independent evaluation of the QPFs at 140 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitored basins with a wide range of spatial scales (~10 – 40,000 km 2 ) over the state of Iowa in the Midwestern United States. The study uses High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecasting System (GFS) QPFs for short and medium-range forecasts, respectively. Using Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) as a reference, the results show that the rainfall-to-rainfall QPF errors are scale-dependent. The results from the hydrologic forecasting experiment show that both QPFs illustrate clear value for real-time streamflow forecasting at longer lead times in the short- to medium-range relative to the no-rain streamflow forecast. The value of QPFs for streamflow forecasting is particularly apparent for basin sizes below 1,000 km 2 . The space-time scale, or reference time t r ) (ratio of forecast lead time to basin travel time) ~ 1 depicts the largest streamflow forecasting skill with a systematic decrease in forecasting accuracy for t r > 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1996

An Inversion of Gravity and Topography for Mantle and Crustal Structure on Mars

Analysis of the gravity and topography of Mars presently provides our primary quantitative constraints on the internal structure of Mars. We present an inversion of the long-wavelength (harmonic degree less than or equal to 10) gravity and topography of Mars for lateral variations of mantle temperature and crustal thickness. Our formulation incorporates both viscous mantle flow (which most prior studies have neglected) and isostatically compensated density anomalies in the crust and lithosphere. Our nominal model has a 150-km-thick high-viscosity surface layer over an isoviscous mantle, with a core radius of 1840 km. It predicts lateral temperature variations of up to a few hundred degrees Kelvin relative to the mean mantle temperature, with high temperature under Tharsis and to a lesser extent under Elysium and cool temperatures elsewhere. Surprisingly, the model predicts crustal thinning beneath Tharsis. If correct, this implies that thinning of the crust by mantle shear stresses dominates over thickening of the crust by volcanism. The major impact basins (Hellas, Argyre, Isidis, Chryse, and Utopia) are regions of crustal thinning, as expected. Utopia is also predicted to be a region of hot mantle, which is hard to reconcile with the surface geology. An alternative model for Utopia treats it as a mascon basin. The Utopia gravity anomaly is consistent with the presence of a 1.2 to 1.6 km thick layer of uncompensated basalt, in good agreement with geologic arguments about the amount of volcanic fill in this area. The mantle thermal structure is the dominant contributor to the observed geoid in our inversion. The mantle also dominates the topography at the longest wavelengths, but shorter wavelengths (harmonic degrees greater than or equal to 4) are dominated by the crustal structure. Because of the uncertainty about the appropriate numerical values for some of the model's input parameters, we have examined the sensitivity of the model results to the planetary structural model (core radius and core and mantle densities), the mantle's viscosity stratification, and the mean crustal thickness. The model results are insensitive to the specific thickness or viscosity contrast of the high-viscosity surface layer and to the mean crustal thickness in the range 25 to 100 km. Models with a large core radius or with an upper mantle low-viscosity zone require implausibly large lateral variations in mantle temperature.

Kiefer, Walter S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Review of Coupled Geochemical–Geomechanical Impacts in Subsurface CO 2 , H 2 , and Air Storage Systems

Increased demand for decarbonization and renewable energy has led to increasing interest in engineered subsurface storage systems for large-scale carbon reduction and energy storage. In these applications, a working fluid (CO 2 , H 2 , air, etc.) is injected into a deep formation for permanent sequestration or seasonal energy storage. The heterogeneous nature of the porous formation and the fluid–rock interactions introduce complexity and uncertainty in the fate of the injected component and host formations in these applications. Interactions between the working gas, native brine, and formation mineralogy must be adequately assessed to evaluate the efficiency, risk, and viability of a particular storage site and operational regime. This study reviews the current state of knowledge about coupled geochemical–geomechanical impacts in geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), underground hydrogen storage (UHS), and compressed air energy storage (CAES) systems involving the injection of CO 2 , H 2 , and air. Specific review topics include (1) existing injection induced geochemical reactions in these systems; (2) the impact of these reactions on the porosity and permeability of host formation; (3) the impact of these reactions on the mechanical properties of host formation; and (4) the investigation of geochemical-geomechanical process in pilot scale GCS. This study helps to facilitate an understanding of the potential geochemical–geomechanical risks involved in different subsurface energy storage systems and highlights future research needs.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1987

Recent data quality and earth science results from the Landsat thematic mapper

The results of the NASA Landsat Image Data Quality Analysis (LIDQA) program are reviewed. Landsat-4 and Landsat-5 TM data quality with regard to image geometry and radiometry are discussed. The results indicate that the TM provides excellent imagery that can be used in the form of satellite image maps meeting cartographic standards at scales of 1:100,000 or smaller. These data can be used to locate features or guide the revision or updating of maps for scales up to 1:24,000. The TM sensor is also providing data of good radiometric quality and stability, with radiometric uncertainties of 1 percent or smaller. The temperature dependence in the absolute radiometry is on the order of 1 to 5 percent of full scale. In terms of bidirectional reflectance estimated at the satellite, the error is estimated at under 6 percent and commonly 3 percent. Preliminary results also corroborate the utility of the TM data for geological or geographical studies.

Salomonson, Vincent V.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Thermal Evolution and Internal Structure of Saturn's Midsize Icy Satellites

The Cassini-Huygens mission is returning new geophysical data for the midsize, icy satellites of Saturn (i.e., satellites with radii between 100 and 1,000 km). These data have enabled a new generation of geophysical model studies for Phoebe, Iapetus, Rhea, Mimas, Tethys, Dione, as well as Enceladus (see Spencer et al. 2009). Here we consider the new model studies that have reported significant results elucidating the evolutionary histories and internal structures of these satellites. Those results have included their age, the development of their internal structures and mineralogies, which for greatest fidelity must be done concomitantly with coupled dynamical evolutions. Surface areas, volumes, bulk densities, spin rates, orbit inclinations, eccentricities, and distance from Saturn have changed as the satellites have aged. Heat is required to power the satellites evolution, but is not overly abundant for the midsized satellites. All sources of heat must be evaluated and taken into account. This includes their intensities and when they occur and are available to facilitate evolution, both internal and dynamical. The mechanisms of heat transport must also be included. However, to model these to high fidelity the material properties of the satellite interiors must be accurately known. This is not the case. Thus, we discuss what is known about these properties and how the uncertainties affect the estimation of heat sources, transport processes, and the consequential changes in composition and evolution. Phoebe has an oblate shape that may be in equilibrium with its spin period of ~9.3 h. Its orbital properties suggest that it is not one of the regular satellites, but is a captured body. Its density is higher than that of the other satellites, consistent with formation in the solar nebula rather than from material around Saturn. Oblate shape and high density are unusual for objects in this size range, and may indicate that Phoebe was heated by Al-26 decay soon after its formation, which is consistent with some models of the origin of Kuiper belt objects. Iapetus has the shape of a hydrostatic body with a rotation period near 16 h. It subsequently despun to its current synchronous rotation state, ~79 day period. These observations are sufficient to constrain the required heating in Iapetus early history, suggesting that it formed several My after CAI condensation. Because Saturn had to be present for Iapetus to form, this date also constrains the age of Saturn and how long it took to form. Both shape and gravitational data are available for Rhea. Gravity data were obtained from the single Cassini flyby during the prime mission and within the uncertainties cannot distinguish between hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic gravitational fields. Both Dione and Tethys display evidence of smooth terrains, with Dione's appearing considerably younger. Both are conceivably linked to tidal heating in the past, but the low rock abundance within Tethys and the lack of eccentricity excitation of Tethys orbit today make explaining this satellite's geology challenging.

Matson, Dennis L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing reservoir performance for geologic carbon sequestration in offshore saline reservoirs

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technological strategy to reduce CO 2 emissions from hydrocarbon-based energy production and non-energy industrial emitters, like fertilizer and cement production. To expand the geographic opportunities for CCS, offshore geologic settings are increasingly considered for saline CO 2 storage, particularly where legacy oil and gas infrastructure may be repurposed for CO 2 transport and injection. In this context, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), United States (U.S.), may offer tremendous opportunity for CCS because the surrounding states are among the largest CO 2 producers in the U.S. and there has been extensive oil and gas development over the last half century. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty in how GoM reservoir/seal systems will respond to industrial-scale CO 2 injections, particularly in the context of meso-scale (1–10s of meters) permeability variations that are difficult to identify prior to injection. Such permeability variations can have significant impacts on CO 2 migration and fluid pressure propagation, both of which govern the overall effectiveness of the CCS project. This research uses ensemble simulation methods to quantify the influence of spatially variable and a priori unknown permeability fields on CO 2 plume development and fluid pressure propagation when CO 2 is injected at 1 MMt per year for ten years. Results show a number of characteristic patterns that reveal the substantial influence of both near- and far-field permeability on reservoir performance. By focusing on basin characteristics that are common among offshore basins worldwide, results from this study suggest that offshore CCS may be a feasible carbon management strategy in regions where offshore basins are proximal to industrial CO 2 sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Isotopic analysis of sub-nanogram neodymium loads using new ATONA™ amplifiers

The long-term gains of the ATONA™ amplifiers are shown to have less than 1 ppm variability. Repeat measurements of the JNdi-1 reference material demonstrate the ability of the ATONA™ amplification technology to make measurements of 143 Nd/ 144 Nd ratios with 23 ppm external reproducibility on 100-pg loads. The effect of increasing integration time on analytical reproducibility is also displayed as increasing integration time from 10 to 30s reduced the external measurement uncertainty from 37 to 23 ppm. These measurements represent an improvement of more than a factor of 3 in external measurement reproducibility relative to previously published 143 Nd/ 144 Nd measurements of 100-pg loads. Furthermore, this new technology will allow for the measurement of smaller samples for precise isotope ratios and open new avenues of research in the geological and nuclear forensic communities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local-Distance Seismic Event Relocation and Relative Magnitude Estimation, Applications to Mining Related Seismicity in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming

Recent efforts to characterize small ( M w < 3 ) seismic events at local distances have become more important because of the increased observation of human-triggered and induced seismicity and the need to advance nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities. The signals generated by low-magnitude seismic sources necessitate the use of nearby short-period observations, which are sensitive to local geological heterogeneity. Local to near-regional distance ( < 300 km ) surface and shear waves can dominate short-period observations from small, shallow seismic sources. In this work, we utilize these observations to estimate precise, relative locations and magnitudes of ~ 700 industrial mining events in Wyoming, using nearly 360,000 observations. The precise, relative location estimates (with formal location uncertainty estimates of less than 1 km) collapse a diffuse collection of mining events into discrete clusters associated with individual blasting operations. We also invert the cross-correlation amplitudes to estimate precise, relative moment magnitude estimates, which help validate and identify disparities in the event sizes reported by regional network catalogs. Joint use of multiple phases allows for the inclusion of more seismic events due to the increase in the number of observations. In some cases, using a single phase allowed us to relocate only 50% of the original reported seismic events within a cluster. Combining shear- and surface-wave phases increased the number of events to above 90% of the original events, allowing us to characterize a broader range of event sizes, source to station distances, and event distributions. This analysis takes a step toward making a fuller characterization of small industrial seismic events observed at local distances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Terrestrial versus giant planet formation

Given a solar nebular surrounding the early protosun, containing dust grains that have already undergone growth through collisions to about centimeter-size, the question of the formation of the terrestrial and giant planets is considered. In contrast to the usual approach of emphasizing how well a problem is understood, the uncertainties and areas where more work needs to be done will be accentuated. Also, the emphasis will be on the dynamics of planetary formation, because profound problems still exist in this area, and because it seems most logical to concentrate first on the dynamical questions involved with assembling the planets before putting too much effort into the detailed chemical and geological consequences of certain formation mechanisms.

Boss, Alan P.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Stability of a Uranium-Contaminated Plume in a Karst Aquifer in Northwest New Mexico - 19574

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management monitors groundwater contamination resulting from ore processing operations conducted between 1953 and 1982 at a former uranium mill site on property that is now part of the Bluewater, New Mexico, Disposal Site. The site is located in the Grants Mineral Belt in northwest New Mexico at the base of the Zuni Mountains. It is estimated that prior to mill tailings encapsulation in 1995, approximately 21.6 billion liters (5.7 billion gallons) of tailings fluid seeped from the main tailings impoundment into the underlying aquifers. Today, there is remnant groundwater contamination from the mill in two aquifers: the San Andres-Glorieta (SAG) bedrock aquifer and the Ancestral Rio San Jose alluvial aquifer. Groundwater contamination in the SAG aquifer is of particular concern, as the aquifer is the primary water source in the region for municipal, agricultural, and industrial use. Municipal wells for the region are located as close as 6.4 kilometers (4 miles) southeast of the Main Tailings Disposal Cell. The SAG uranium plume extends east for more than 4.8 kilometers (3 miles) beyond the site's eastern boundary, along the direction of groundwater flow. The plume intersects the Homestake Mining Company site, another former uranium mill site undergoing active remediation. The SAG aquifer contains two formations, the Lower Permian San Andres Limestone and the Glorieta Sandstone. Most of the groundwater moving through the SAG aquifer is in ancient karst features consisting of open conduits where the limestone has dissolved, resulting in flow through solution cavities, solution channels, cavernous zones, and enlarged fracture openings. These features make the San Andres Limestone extremely permeable and capable of rapidly transporting groundwater. In addition, the karst characteristics make the aquifer difficult to evaluate and the uranium plume difficult to characterize. Numerous faults in the area, including two directly under the Main Tailings Disposal Cell, further complicate characterization by impacting groundwater flow both onsite and in the vicinity. A DOE study of the SAG aquifer uranium plume at the Bluewater site, conducted in 2014, indicated that the plume had moved offsite soon after the start of milling and effectively stabilized in its present location prior to the 1980's. An updated study completed in 2018 confirmed previous information regarding general plume stability and provided insight regarding potential localized trends east and south of the Main Tailings Disposal Cell. One such trend may be decreasing uranium concentrations east of the Main Tailings Disposal Cell, potentially attributable to regional groundwater elevation decreases. Both the 2013 and 2017 plumes suggest that the dissolved uranium contamination is derived from the leaching of a secondary mineralized zone derived from seeped tailings fluids in the geologic formations and fault zones below the Main Tailings Disposal Cell at the Bluewater site. In developing the 2013 and 2017 SAG aquifer uranium plume depictions, DOE had to address challenges associated with data quality and comparability. Analytical results used to determine the plume extent were compiled from multiple sources, including the state of New Mexico, Homestake Mining Company, and DOE. Each source used different well identifiers and coordinate systems, and well information between sources was inconsistent. Also, the integrity of some wells was questionable and necessitated review; casing integrity was found to be compromised in multiple wells. Given these uncertainties, some of these wells were excluded from the characterization. Another source of uncertainty is the paucity of wells, particularly monitoring wells, near or immediately downgradient of the leading edge of the plume. Therefore, the exact extent of the SAG aquifer uranium plume is not known at this time. There is, however, no evidence or indication of milling-related contamination in municipal wells. Furthermore, due to plume stability and direction of groundwater flow, the municipal wells are not expected to be impacted. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Cosmic Ray Muons to Assess Geological Characteristics in the Subsurface

Cosmic rays are energetic nuclei and elementary particles that originate from stars and intergalactic events. The interaction of these particles with the upper atmosphere produces a wide range of secondary particles that reach the surface of the earth, of which muons are the most prominent. With enough energy, muons can travel up to a few kilometers beneath the surface of the earth before being stopped completely. The terrestrial muon flux profile and associated zenith angle can be utilized to determine geological characteristics of a location (e.g., rock overburden and density) without having to use conventional methods such as boreholes. This work uses a low-power plastic scintillator-based muon detection system as a prototype for this non-destructive geological assay methodology. Four custom designed 102 cm x 51 cm x 5 cm plastic scintillation panels are used to realize two orthogonal detection planes. Optical photons from each scintillation panel are read using OnSemi J-Series 4x4 silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) arrays in conjunction with preamplifiers. Simultaneous triggers between detectors from two planes indicate a coincidence event which is recorded using the QuarkNet data acquisition system (DAQ) from Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. A custom detector holder was designed to securely mount the detection system and rotate the panels along the zenith to collect data at variable angles. In order to quantify the systematic uncertainties associated with the detector, such as energy depositions and angular resolution of the detector design, a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation using Geant4 is being developed. Cosmic ray flux prediction will be included in the project by adding the CORSIKA MC code to the simulation toolchain. Simulated and experimental data will drive the development and validation of a reconstruction algorithm that, upon completion, is expected to predict average overburden and rock density. Extended detector exposure to muons can be used as a means to understand changes in the surrounding environment like rock porosity. On the experimental front, muons will initially be measured at the surface, establishing the baseline flux. This is followed by recording the muon flux at variable depths and zenith angles, where the data will be used by the reconstruction algorithm to predict the overburden. The result will be benchmarked against geological surveys. The measured flux data will also be used to benchmark independent and established models. Successful proof-of-concept demonstration of this technology can open doors for long term non-invasive geological monitoring. The detector design, experimental methodology, and the benchmarking efforts are detailed in this work.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗