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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Finite-time correlations boost large voltage angle fluctuations in electric power grids

Abstract Decarbonization in the energy sector has been accompanied by an increased penetration of new renewable energy sources in electric power systems. Such sources differ from traditional productions in that, first, they induce larger, undispatchable fluctuations in power generation and second, they lack inertia. Recent measurements have indeed reported long, non-Gaussian tails in the distribution of local voltage frequency data. Large frequency deviations may induce grid instabilities, leading in worst-case scenarios to cascading failures and large-scale blackouts. In this article, we investigate how correlated noise disturbances, characterized by the cumulants of their distribution, propagate through meshed, high-voltage power grids. For a single source of fluctuations, we show that long noise correlation times boost non-Gaussian voltage angle fluctuations so that they propagate similarly to Gaussian fluctuations over the entire network. However, they vanish faster, over short distances if the noise fluctuates rapidly. We furthermore demonstrate that a Berry–Esseen theorem leads to the vanishing of non-Gaussianities as the number of uncorrelated noise sources increases. Our predictions are corroborated by numerical simulations on realistic models of power grids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning based unfolding of x-ray spectra from filter stack spectrometer data

We demonstrate the application of neural networks to perform x-ray spectra unfolding from data collected by filter stack spectrometers. A filter stack spectrometer consists of a series of filter-detector pairs, where the detectors behind each filter measure the energy deposition through each layer as photo-stimulated luminescence (PSL). The network is trained on synthetic data, assuming x-rays of energies < 1 MeV and of two different distribution functions (Maxwellian and Gaussian) and the corresponding measured PSL values obtained from five different filter stack spectrometer designs. Predicted unfolds of single distributions are near identical reproductions of the ground truth spectra, with differences in the values lower than 20% at the higher energy end in some cases. The neural network has also demonstrated robustness to experimental measurement errors of < 5% and some capability of performing unfolds for linear combinations of the two distributions without previous training. The network can perform unfolds at rates > 1 Hz, ideal for application to some high-repetition-rate systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examining ICARUS Cosmic Muon Signal Shapes

In the search for new physics, such as sterile neutrinos, we must compare our experimental data to the case where this new physics does not exist, which is provided by simulations. However, our detectors and simulations are not perfect, so we need to be able to differentiate imperfections in our simulations, detector effects, and unknown unknowns from new physics. Thus, we need to quantify ICARUS detector systematic uncertainties; in other words, we need to know how much difference between experiment and simulation we can expect due to only detector systematics, so when we see differences greater than this, we can be confident they are due to new physics. To calculate this uncertainty, we study the signals produced in ICARUS by cosmic muons, since these muons are well understood. Ideally, we want to fit these waveforms as Gaussians and compare the fits from experimental data to fits from simulations to calculate the uncertainties, but first, we need to know how accurately these curve s can be described by Gaussians. We examined the peak and the full width at half maximum (FHWM) of signals from simulations, and we produced plots of the distribution of peaks and FHWMs for these signals. We further studied how the peaks and FHWMs varied depending on where the signal came from in the detector. Ultimately, by comparing the actual distribution of peaks and FHWMs to the distribution predicted by the Gaussian fits, we hope to determine how well these signals can be described as Gaussians.

Patino, Nicolas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Momentum power spectrum of SDSS galaxies by massE cosmic ruler: 2.1×improvement in measure of growth rate

ABSTRACT Peculiar motion of galaxies probes the structure growth in the universe. In this study, we employ the galaxy stellar mass-binding energy (massE) relation with only two nuisance parameters to build the largest peculiar-velocity (PV) catalogue to date, consisting of 229 890 ellipticals from the main galaxy sample (MGS) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We quantify the distribution of the massE-based distances in individual narrow redshift bins (dz = 0.005), and then estimate the PV of each galaxy based on its offset from the Gaussian mean of the distribution. As demonstrated with the Uchuu-SDSS mock data, the derived PV and momentum power spectra are insensitive to accurate calibration of the massE relation itself, enabling measurements out to a redshift of 0.2, well beyond the current limit of z = 0.1 using other galaxy scaling laws. We then measure the momentum power spectrum and demonstrate that it remains almost unchanged if varying significantly the redshift bin size within which the distance is measured, as well as the intercept and slope of the massE relation, respectively. By fitting the spectra using the perturbation theory model with four free parameters, fσ8 is constrained to fσ8 = 0.459$^{+0.068}_{-0.069}$ over Δz = 0.02–0.2, 0.416$^{+0.074}_{-0.076}$ over Δz = 0.02–0.1, and 0.526$^{+0.133}_{-0.148}$ over Δz = 0.1–0.2. The error of fσ8 is 2.1 times smaller than that by the redshift space distortion (RSD) of the same sample. A Fisher matrix forecast illustrates that the constraint on fσ8 from the massE-based PV can potentially exceed that from the stage-IV RSD in late universe (z<0.5).

Shi, Yong (ORCID:0000000286146275)↗
DOE OSTI2022

KaRMMa – kappa reconstruction for mass mapping

ABSTRACT We present KaRMMa, a novel method for performing mass map reconstruction from weak-lensing surveys. We employ a fully Bayesian approach with a physically motivated lognormal prior to sample from the posterior distribution of convergence maps. We test KaRMMa on a suite of dark matter N-body simulations with simulated DES Y1-like shear observations. We show that KaRMMa outperforms the basic Kaiser–Squires mass map reconstruction in two key ways: (1) our best map point estimate has lower residuals compared to Kaiser–Squires; and (2) unlike the Kaiser–Squires reconstruction, the posterior distribution of KaRMMa maps is nearly unbiased in all summary statistics we considered, namely: one-point and two-point functions, and peak/void counts. In particular, KaRMMa successfully captures the non-Gaussian nature of the distribution of κ values in the simulated maps. We further demonstrate that the KaRMMa posteriors correctly characterize the uncertainty in all summary statistics we considered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Generation of arbitrary probability distributions from chaotic dynamics

A framework is developed to derive nonlinear dynamical systems that chaotically generate arbitrary multivariate probability distributions with smooth, deterministic trajectories. Herein, the ideas are used to extend the Nosé-Hoover thermostat methodology to three-dimensional cases where the momentum distribution is nonisotropic and/or non-Gaussian. Toy models that generate several well-known distributions in physics are given as pedagogical examples.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Connecting galaxy evolution in clusters with their radial profiles and phase space distribution: results from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations

ABSTRACT We study the population of galaxies around galaxy clusters in the hydrodynamic simulation suite IllustrisTNG 300-1 to study the signatures of their evolutionary history on observable properties. We measure the radial number density profile, phase space distribution, and splashback radius for galaxies of different masses and colours over the redshift range z = 0−1. The three primary physical effects which shape the galaxy distribution within clusters are the galaxy quenching, angular momentum distribution, and dynamical friction. We find three distinct populations of galaxies by applying a Gaussian mixture model to their distribution in colour and mass. They have distinct evolutionary histories and leave distinct signatures on their distribution around cluster haloes. We find that low-mass red galaxies show the most concentrated distribution in clusters and the largest splashback radius, while high-mass red galaxies show a less concentrated distribution and a smaller splashback radius. Blue galaxies, which mostly quench into the low-mass red population, have the shallowest distribution within the clusters, with those on radial orbits quenched rapidly before reaching pericentre. Comparison with the distribution of galaxies from the Dark Energy Survey survey around Sunyaev–Zeldovich clusters from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and South Pole Telescope surveys shows evidence for differences in galaxy evolution between simulations and data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Membership Inference Attacks under Distribution Shifts

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) exploit machine learning models to infer whether a data point was in the training set, posing significant privacy risks even with limited black-box access. These attacks rely on the attacker approximating the target model’s training distribution, yet the impact of distribution shifts between target and shadow models on MIA success remains underexplored. We systematically evaluate five types of distribution shifts —-cutout, jitter, Gaussian noise, label shift, and attribute shift —- at varying intensities. Our results reveal that these shifts affect MIA effectiveness in nuanced ways, with some reducing attack success while others exacerbate vulnerabilities, and the same shift can have opposite effects depending on the type of MIA. This highlights the complex interplay between distributional differences and attack performance, offering critical insights for improving model defenses against MIAs.

Shi, Yichuan [Massachusetts Institute of Technolog↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble models for circuit topology estimation, fault detection and classification in distribution systems

This paper presents a methodology for simultaneous fault detection, classification, and topology estimation for adaptive protection of distribution systems. The methodology estimates the probability of the occurrence of each one of these events by using a hybrid structure that combines three sub-systems, a convolutional neural network for topology estimation, a fault detection based on predictive residual analysis, and a standard support vector machine with probabilistic output for fault classification. The input to all these sub-systems is the local voltage and current measurements. A convolutional neural network uses these local measurements in the form of sequential data to extract features and estimate the topology conditions. The fault detector is constructed with a Bayesian stage (a multitask Gaussian process) that computes a predictive distribution (assumed to be Gaussian) of the residuals using the input. Since the distribution is known, these residuals can be transformed into a Standard distribution, whose values are then introduced into a one-class support vector machine. The structure allows using a one-class support vector machine without parameter cross-validation, so the fault detector is fully unsupervised. Finally, a support vector machine uses the input to perform the classification of the fault types. All three sub-systems can work in a parallel setup for both performance and computation efficiency. In conclusion, we test all three sub-systems included in the structure on a modified IEEE123 bus system, and we compare and evaluate the results with standard approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitatively Monitoring Bubble-Flow at a Seep Site Offshore Oregon: Field Trials and Methodological Advances for Parallel Optical and Hydroacoustical Measurements

Two lander-based devices, the Bubble-Box and GasQuant-II, were used to investigate the spatial and temporal variability and total gas flow rates of a seep area offshore Oregon, United States. The Bubble-Box is a stereo camera–equipped lander that records bubbles inside a rising corridor with 80 Hz, allowing for automated image analyses of bubble size distributions and rising speeds. GasQuant is a hydroacoustic lander using a horizontally oriented multibeam swath to record the backscatter intensity of bubble streams passing the swath plain. The experimental set up at the Astoria Canyon site at a water depth of about 500 m aimed at calibrating the hydroacoustic GasQuant data with the visual Bubble-Box data for a spatial and temporal flow rate quantification of the site. For about 90 h in total, both systems were deployed simultaneously and pressure and temperature data were recorded using a CTD as well. Detailed image analyses show a Gaussian-like bubble size distribution of bubbles with a radius of 0.6–6 mm (mean 2.5 mm, std. dev. 0.25 mm); this is very similar to other measurements reported in the literature. Rising speeds ranged from 15 to 37 cm/s between 1- and 5-mm bubble sizes and are thus, in parts, slightly faster than reported elsewhere. Bubble sizes and calculated flow rates are rather constant over time at the two monitored bubble streams. Flow rates of these individual bubble streams are in the range of 544–1,278 mm 3 /s. One Bubble-Box data set was used to calibrate the acoustic backscatter response of the GasQuant data, enabling us to calculate a flow rate of the ensonified seep area (~1,700 m 2 ) that ranged from 4.98 to 8.33 L/min (5.38 × 10 6 to 9.01 × 10 6 CH 4 mol/year). Such flow rates are common for seep areas of similar size, and as such, this location is classified as a normally active seep area. For deriving these acoustically based flow rates, the detailed data pre-processing considered echogram gridding methods of the swath data and bubble responses at the respective water depth. The described method uses the inverse gas flow quantification approach and gives an in-depth example of the benefits of using acoustic and optical methods in tandem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large deviations of ionic currents in dilute electrolytes

Here, we evaluate the exponentially rare fluctuations of the ionic current for a dilute electrolyte by means of macroscopic fluctuation theory. We consider the fluctuating hydrodynamics of a fluid electrolyte described by a stochastic Poisson–Nernst–Planck equation. We derive the Euler–Lagrange equations that dictate the optimal concentration profiles of ions conditioned on exhibiting a given current, whose form determines the likelihood of that current in the long-time limit. For a symmetric electrolyte under small applied voltages, number density fluctuations are small, and ionic current fluctuations are Gaussian with a variance determined by the Nernst–Einstein conductivity. Under large applied potentials, the ionic current distribution is generically non-Gaussian. Its structure is constrained thermodynamically by Gallavotti–Cohen symmetry and the thermodynamic uncertainty principle.

Farhadi, Jafar [University of California, Berkeley↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Driven Construction of Compact Primitive Gaussian Density Fitting Basis Sets

We present a model-assisted density fitting (MADF) basis set generator, an algorithm for generating primitive atomic Gaussian density fitting (DF) basis sets (DFBSs) from a contracted Gaussian orbital basis set (OBS). The MADF algorithm produces DFBSs suitable for accurate robust DF approximation of 2-particle interactions in mean-field and correlated electronic structures. The algorithm is designed to (a) saturate the OBS product space by a large regularized set of primitive solid-harmonic Gaussian shells with nonuniform distribution of exponents, followed by (b) pruning of the shells according to their contributions to the 2- body energy of a correlated atomic ensemble. Building the DFBS generator model almost exclusively on mathematical and physical principles allows one to limit the number of parameters that control the density fitting error to three, with a single set of parameters sufficient for computations with all basis cardinal numbers, with and without correlation of core electrons, with and without scalar and spin-dependent relativistic effects, spanning almost all of the Periodic Table. Performance assessment included basis sets up to quadruple-ζ quality from several major basis set families, using molecules composed of main-group, d-block, and f-block elements. The resulting DF errors in Hartree−Fock and second-order MP2 energies (with relativistic all-electron treatments, when appropriate) were on the order of 20 and 10 μE h per electron, respectively.

Approximation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-Markovian Hole Excess Noise in Avalanche Amorphous Selenium Thin Films

Enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio in avalanche photodiodes by utilizing impact ionization gain requires materials exhibiting low excess noise factors. Amorphous selenium (a-Se) as a wide bandgap at ~2.1 eV, a solid-state avalanche layer, demonstrates single-carrier hole impact ionization gain and manifests ultralow thermal generation rates. A comprehensive study of the history dependent and non-Markovian nature of hot hole transport in a-Se was modeled using a Monte Carlo (MC) random walk of single hole free flights, interrupted by instantaneous phonon, disorder, hole–dipole, and impact-ionization scattering interactions. The hole excess noise factors were simulated for 0.1–15 μm a-Se thin-films as a function of mean avalanche gain. The hole excess noise factors in a-Se decreases with an increase in electric field, impact ionization gain, and device thickness. The history dependent nature of branching of holes is explained using a Gaussian avalanche threshold distance distribution and the dead space distance, which increases determinism in the stochastic impact ionization process. An ultralow non-Markovian excess noise factor of ~1 was simulated for 100 nm a-Se thin films corresponding to avalanche gains of 1000. Future detector designs can utilize the nonlocal/non-Markovian nature of the hole avalanche in a-Se, to enable a true solid-state photomultiplier with noiseless gain.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Quantification for Multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics Closure Relations with a Physics-Informed Bayesian Approach

Multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics (MCFD) based on the two-fluid model is considered a promising tool to model complex two-phase flow systems. MCFD simulation can predict local flow features without resolving interfacial information. As a result, the MCFD solver relies on closure relations to describe the interaction between the two phases. Those empirical or semi-mechanistic closure relations constitute a major source of uncertainty for MCFD predictions. In this paper, we leverage a physics-informed uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach to inversely quantify the closure relations’ model form uncertainty in a physically consistent manner. This proposed approach considers the model form uncertainty terms as stochastic fields that are additive to the closure relation outputs. Combining dimensionality reduction and Gaussian processes, the posterior distribution of the stochastic fields can be effectively quantified within the Bayesian framework with the support of experimental measurements. As this UQ approach is fully integrated into the MCFD solving process, the physical constraints of the system can be naturally preserved in the UQ results. Here, in a case study of adiabatic bubbly flow, we demonstrate that this UQ approach can quantify the model form uncertainty of the MCFD interfacial force closure relations, thus effectively improving the simulation results with relatively sparse data support.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Debye-Waller factor of disordered solids: The case for amorphous silicon

This paper presents a first-principles study of the Debye-Waller factor and the Debye temperature for amorphous silicon (α-Si) from lattice-dynamical calculations and direct molecular-dynamics simulations using density-functional theory (DFT). The effects of temperature and structural disorder on the intensity of the diffraction maxima and the vibrational mean-square displacement (MSD) of Si atoms are studied in the harmonic approximation, with particular emphasis on the bond-length disorder, the presence of coordination defects, and microvoids in α-Si networks. It has been observed that the MSDs associated with tetrahedrally bonded Si atoms are considerably lower than their dangling-bond counterparts—originating from isolated and vacancy-induced clustered defects—and those on the surface of microvoids, leading to an asymmetric non-Gaussian tail in the distribution of atomic displacements. An examination of the effect of anharmonicity on the MSD at high temperatures using direct ab initio molecular-dynamics simulations (without the harmonic approximation) suggests that the vibrational motion in α-Si is practically unaffected by anharmonic effects at temperatures below 400 K, as far as the present DFT calculations are concerned. The Debye temperature of α-Si is found to be in the range of 488–541 K from specific-heat and MSD calculations using first-principles lattice-dynamical calculations in the harmonic approximation, which matches closely with the experimental value of 487–528 K obtained from specific-heat measurements of α-Si at low temperatures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Room-Temperature Mechanical Resonator with a Single Added or Subtracted Phonon

A room-temperature mechanical oscillator undergoes thermal Brownian motion with an amplitude much larger than the amplitude associated with a single phonon of excitation. This motion can be read out and manipulated using laser light using a cavity-optomechanical approach. By performing a strong quantum measurement (i.e., counting single photons in the sidebands imparted on a laser), we herald the addition and subtraction of single phonons on the 300 K thermal motional state of a 4 GHz mechanical oscillator. Further, to understand the resulting mechanical state, we implement a tomography scheme and observe highly non-Gaussian phase-space distributions. Using a maximum likelihood method, we infer the density matrix of the oscillator, and we confirm the counterintuitive doubling of the mean phonon number resulting from phonon addition and subtraction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ab initio studies of the impact of the Debye-Waller factor on the structural and dynamical properties of amorphous semiconductors: The case of a-Si

This paper presents a first-principles study of the Debye-Waller factor and the Debye temperature for amorphous silicon (a-Si) from lattice-dynamical calculations and direct molecular-dynamics simulations using density-functional theory (DFT). The effects of temperature and structural disorder on the intensity of the diffraction maxima and the vibrational mean-square displacement (MSD) of Si atoms are studied in the harmonic approximation, with particular emphasis on the bond-length disorder, the presence of coordination defects, and microvoids in a-Si networks. It has been observed that the MSDs associated with tetrahedrally-bonded Si atoms are considerably lower than their dangling-bond counterparts – originating from isolated and vacancy-induced clustered defects – and those on the surface of microvoids, leading to an asymmetric non-gaussian tail in the distribution of atomic displacements. An examination of the effect of anharmonicity on the MSD at high temperatures using direct ab initio molecular-dynamics simulations (without the harmonic approximation) suggests that the vibrational motion in a-Si is practically unaffected by anharmonic effects at temperatures below 400 K, as far as the present DFT calculations are concerned. The Debye temperature of a-Si is found to be in the range of 488–541 K from specific-heat and MSD calculations using first-principles lattice-dynamical calculations in the harmonic approximation, which matches closely with the experimental value of 487–528 K obtained from specific-heat measurements of a-Si at low temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗