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DOE OSTI2022

Editorial for the Virtual Special Issue of Journal of Power Sources “Low temperature fuel cells and electrolysers” - Science and engineering: Let's play this game hand in hand!

Electrochemistry is already and will increasingly be amongst the major drivers of our energetic mix decarbonization, so to fight anthropogenic global warming. The hydrogen economy vector (ideally produced in water electrolysers using renewable electricity and transformed back into electricity in fuel cells), in parallel with the conversion of carbon dioxide and nitrogen gas into value-added products are seen as pillars of the so-called green and sustainable Energy Revolution. The hydrogen technologies presently attract increasing interest, their momentum growing irremediably in Europe, Asia and Americas. Here, this Virtual Special Issue (VSI) gathers the latest scientific results of major research laboratories worldwide, all addressing various aspects of electrochemical energy and material conversion processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Climate Models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on the planet, with far-reaching global impacts. It is therefore key to evaluate ENSO simulations in state-of-the-art numerical models used to study past, present, and future climate. Recently, the Pacific Region Panel of the International Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR) Project, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), led a community-wide effort to evaluate the simulation of ENSO variability, teleconnections, and processes in climate models. The new CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package enables model diagnosis, comparison, and evaluation to 1) highlight aspects that need improvement; 2) monitor progress across model generations; 3) help in selecting models that are well suited for particular analyses; 4) reveal links between various model biases, illuminating the impacts of those biases on ENSO and its sensitivity to climate change; and to 5) advance ENSO literacy. By interfacing with existing model evaluation tools, the ENSO metrics package enables rapid analysis of multipetabyte databases of simulations, such as those generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 models are found to significantly outperform those from CMIP5 for 8 out of 24 ENSO-relevant metrics, with most CMIP6 models showing improved tropical Pacific seasonality and ENSO teleconnections. Only one ENSO metric is significantly degraded in CMIP6, namely, the coupling between the ocean surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, while the majority of metrics remain unchanged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Climatology and Life‐Cycle Characteristics of Atmospheric Fronts and Their Associated Precipitation

Abstract Atmospheric fronts are one of the main sources of mid‐latitude variability. We employ a novel method for identifying and tracking fronts and frontal precipitation. Thermal and dynamical variables are used to identify fronts as areal objects in space, which are tracked in time using the open‐source TempestExtremes software package. Precipitation objects are co‐located to identify frontal precipitation. The method is subjected to validation and sensitivity tests using manually curated data from the National Weather Service. Climatologies of fronts and frontal precipitation are computed from reanalysis and observations; fronts are present upwards of 14% of the time in the storm tracks, and represent the majority (up to 90%) of total and extreme precipitation. Novel aspects of the method are showcased through the lifetime characteristics of fronts across North America. Three sets of warm and cold fronts were discovered, and their duration, distance‐traveled, and translation velocity are examined. Plain Language Summary Mid‐latitude low‐pressure systems and weather fronts are important for our day‐to‐day experience of weather events, particularly in the mid‐latitudes. This work makes use of standardized atmospheric data and creates a method of automatically tracking these important atmospheric features and their precipitation to quantify their relative role in global precipitation. Weather fronts are persistent in the mid‐latitudes and are associated with the majority of precipitation–particularly the most intense precipitation. Trajectories of fronts over North America are categorized to create a set of archetypal fronts that occur in that region. The differences between these types of fronts are characterized. Key Points An automated, efficient, and skillful frontal detection algorithm is developed and validated Fronts contribute a larger fraction of extreme precipitation than all precipitation in mid‐latitude storm tracks Fronts across North America have substantial variation in characteristics depending on their origin location

extratropical cyclone↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of annealing temperature on the magnetic properties of highly crystalline biphase iron oxide nanorods

We report on the effects of annealing temperatures ranging from 225 °C to 325 °C on the magnetic properties of high aspect ratio iron oxide nanorods consisting of a ferrimagnetic Fe 3 O 4 phase and an antiferromagnetic α-Fe 2 O 3 phase in an as-prepared state. Annealing at the aforementioned temperatures under a constant flow of O 2 for 3 h leads to an increment of the volume fraction of the antiferromagnetic α-Fe 2 O 3 phase and concomitant enhancement of the crystallinity of the ferrimagnetic Fe 3 O 4 phase. These opposing effects compete with each other, resulting in a decrease in global magnetization with increasing the annealing temperature. The desirable magnetic properties are achieved for the sample annealed at 250 °C. For all samples investigated, we observed an increase in low field magnetization at low temperatures after the sample is field cooled in the presence of a 1T magnetic field, which we attribute to the ordering of macro-spins of the weakly ordered antiferromagnetic α-Fe 2 O 3 phase in the presence of the cooling field. Our study will pave the way for determining the optimal conditions to enhance the magnetic characteristics in iron oxide nanorods, which will enable its use in spintronics and biomedical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unified understanding of the impact of semiflexibility, concentration, and molecular weight on macromolecular-scale ring diffusion

Conformationally fluctuating, globally compact macromolecules such as polymeric rings, single-chain nanoparticles, microgels, and many-arm stars display complex dynamic behaviors due to their rich topological structure and intermolecular organization. Synthetic rings are hybrid objects with conformations that display both ideal random walk and compact globular features, which can serve as models of genomic DNA. To date, emphasis has been placed on the effect of ring molecular weight on their unusual behaviors. Here, we combine simulations and a microscopic force-level theory to build a unified understanding for how key aspects of ring dynamics depend on different tunable molecular properties including backbone rigidity, monomer concentration, degree of traditional entanglement, and molecular weight. Our large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of ring melts with very different backbone stiffnesses reveal unanticipated behaviors which agree well with our generalized theory. This includes a universal master curve for center-of-mass diffusion constants as a function of molecular weight scaled by a chemistry and thermodynamic state-dependent critical molecular weight that generalizes the concept of an entanglement cross-over for linear chains. The key physics is how backbone rigidity and monomer concentration induced changes of the entanglement length, interring packing, degree of interpenetration, and liquid compressibility slow down space-time dynamic-force correlations on macromolecular scales. A power law decay of the center-of-mass diffusion constant with inverse molecular weight squared is the first consequence, followed by an ultraslow activated hopping transport regime. Our results set the stage to address slow dynamics and kinetic arrest in different families of compact synthetic and biological polymeric systems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Flexible visualization of a 3rd party Intrusion Prevention (Security) tool: A use case with the ELK stack

A difficult aspect of cyber security is the ability to achieve automated real time intrusion prevention across various sets of systems. To this extent, several companies are offering comprehensive solutions that leverage an "accuracy of scale" and moving much of the intelligence and detection on the Cloud, relying on an ever-growing set of data and analytics to increase decision accuracy. Often, they provide tools to visualize the decision workflows in attack prevention (as well as tune the algorithm) but those solutions are not always practical as companies see the problem as "global" that is, from a unified Cyber-security standpoint. However, a key to a successful Cyber-security program is transparency and trust: from an experimental team viewpoint, this specifically means having the ability to immediately see what and from where, who has been blocked and being able to inform the community in case of a revoked access without the need for filing a "ticket" (that may eventually be answered) – in other words, rapid response to their user-base is essential but solutions targeting "sub-groups" in an organization are not often available. We have come up with a versatile solution leveraging the ELK stack (Elasticsearch, Logstash, & Kibana) and an IPS (Intrusion Prevention System) based WAF (Web Application Firewall) from Signal Sciences. Signal Science allows the streaming of detailed logs in a Logstash format suitable for custom solutions for visualization. By combining these two tools, we have strengthened our security posture and enabled individual experiments to monitor their own traffic. Specifically, the IPS WAF provides unique data such as country of origin, protocol, response code, source IP, and paths accessed. In this contribution, we will show how we engineered a visualization solution so experiment groups could access a dashboard with predefined graphs but also, where they can create individual customizable dashboards used to display blocked traffic and troubleshoot latency issues. We will discuss the details and procedures for developing and configuring these tools and how it benefits cyber security postures across our scientific based environment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Spatial Representativeness of Global Flux Tower Eddy-Covariance Measurements Using Data from FLUXNET2015

Large datasets of carbon dioxide, energy, and water fluxes were measured with the eddy-covariance (EC) technique, such as FLUXNET2015. These datasets are widely used to validate remote-sensing products and benchmark models. One of the major challenges in utilizing EC-flux data is determining the spatial extent to which measurements taken at individual EC towers reflect model-grid or remote sensing pixels. To minimize the potential biases caused by the footprint-to-target area mismatch, it is important to use flux datasets with awareness of the footprint. This study analyze the spatial representativeness of global EC measurements based on the open-source FLUXNET2015 data, using the published flux footprint model (SAFE-f). The calculated annual cumulative footprint climatology (ACFC) was overlaid on land cover and vegetation index maps to create a spatial representativeness dataset of global flux towers. The dataset includes the following components: (1) the ACFC contour (ACFCC) data and areas representing 50%, 60%, 70%, and 80% ACFCC of each site, (2) the proportion of each land cover type weighted by the 80% ACFC (ACFCW), (3) the semivariogram calculated using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) considering the 80% ACFCW, and (4) the sensor location bias (SLB) between the 80% ACFCW and designated areas (e.g. 80% ACFCC and window sizes) proxied by NDVI. Finally, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the representativeness of each site from three aspects: (1) the underlying surface cover, (2) the semivariogram, and (3) the SLB between 80% ACFCW and 80% ACFCC, and categorized them into 3 levels. The goal of creating this dataset is to provide data quality guidance for international researchers to effectively utilize the FLUXNET2015 dataset in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

PDB‐101: Molecular Explorations through Biology and Medicine

PDB‐101 is an online portal for teachers, students, and the general public to promote exploration of the structural biology of proteins and nucleic acids ( pdb101.rcsb.org ). Learning about the diverse shapes and functions of these biological macromolecules helps to understand all aspects of biomedicine and agriculture, from protein synthesis to health and disease to biological energy. Why PDB‐101? Researchers around the world are studying these molecules at the atomic level. These 3D structures are freely available at the Protein Data Bank (PDB), the central storehouse of biomolecular structures. This website builds introductory materials to help beginners get started in the basics of biomolecular structure and function (“101”, as in an entry level course) as well as resources for extended learning. Since 2011, PDB‐101 has been developed by the RCSB PDB , a global resource for the advancement of research and education in biology and medicine. Along with our Worldwide PDB collaborators, RCSB PDB curates, annotates, and makes publicly available the PDB data deposited by scientists around the globe. The RCSB PDB then provides a window to these data through a rich online resource with powerful searching, reporting, and visualization tools for researchers. This information is then streamlined for students and teachers at PDB‐101. Features include the ongoing Molecule of the Month series, educational materials such as paper models, posters, molecular animations, educational curricula and more. The section “Guide to Understanding PDB Data” is a primer for detailed PDB‐specific information: PDB Data, Visualizing Structures, Reading Coordinate Files, scientific methods for structure determination, and more. PDB‐101 also runs annual Video Challenges for high school students. Participants create short videos that tell molecular stories that connect structural biology and medicine. Previous topics have included HIV/AIDS, diabetes, and antimicrobial resistance. The 2022 challenge will focus on Molecular Mechanisms of Cancer. PDB‐101 activities are evaluated using user surveys, feedback from in‐person activities, and website analytics. In 2020, PDB‐101 hosted >850,000 users and >2.6 million page views.

Zardecki, Christine↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity

Analysis with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and multisector dynamics models (MSDs) of global and national challenges and opportunities, including pursuit of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), requires projections of economic growth. In turn, the pursuit of multiple interacting goals affects economic productivity and growth, generating complex feedback loops among actions and objectives. Yet, most analysis uses either exogenous projections of productivity and growth or specifications endogenously enriched with a very small set of drivers. Extending endogenous treatment of productivity to represent two-way interactions with a significant set of goal-related variables can considerably enhance analysis. Among such variables incorporated in this project are aspects of human development (e.g., education, health, poverty reduction), socio-political change (e.g., governance capacity and quality), and infrastructure (e.g. water and sanitation and modern energy access), all in conditional interaction with underlying technological advance and economic convergence among countries. Using extensive datasets across countries and time, this project broadly endogenizes total factor productivity (TFP) within a large-scale, multi-issue IAM, the International Futures (IFs) model system. We demonstrate the utility of the resultant open system via comparison of new TFP projections with those produced for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, via integrated analysis of economic growth potential, and via multi-scenario analysis of progress toward the SDGs. We find that the integrated system can reproduce existing SSP projections, help anticipate differential economic progress across countries, and facilitate extended, integrated analysis of trade-offs and synergies in pursuit of the SDGs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards natural and realistic E 7 GUTs in F-theory

We consider phenomenological aspects of a natural class of Standard Model-like supersymmetric F-theory vacua realized through flux breaking of rigid E 7 gauge factors. Three generations of Standard Model matter are realized in many of these vacua. We further find that many other Standard Model-like features are naturally compatible with these constructions. For example, dimension-4 and 5 terms associated with proton decay are ubiquitously suppressed. Many of these features are due to the group theoretical structure of E 7 and associated F-theory geometry. In particular, a set of approximate global symmetries descends from the E 7 group, leading to exponential suppression of undesired couplings.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using earth abundant materials for long duration energy storage: electro-chemical and thermo-chemical cycling of bicarbonate/formate

Using hydrogen to store energy in chemical bonds is a key component of the global strategy to achieving a sustainable future and ameliorating climate change. The challenges associated with handling molecular hydrogen can be solved by using liquid hydrogen carriers. In this perspective, we discuss the concept of bicarbonate–formate cycle, where aqueous solutions of formate ions (HCO 2 – ) are used as hydrogen and energy carriers. Such solutions are composed by earth abundant elements and, in contrast to common liquid organic carriers, are non-flammable, and readily convert to the oxide forms (HCO 3 – ) under reaction with water to release hydrogen, or electrons, at moderate temperatures. We discuss thermodynamic aspects of the bicarbonate–formate cycle and show how it offers the opportunity of combining electrochemical and thermochemical operations, as well as of coupling CO 2 capture with energy/hydrogen storage. We emphasize the potential role of electrochemistry in the generation of formate and in the release of energy in the form of electricity. At present, more information on both the fundamental and systems level, is needed to identify the feasible scenarios for using formate/bicarbonate salts for hydrogen/energy storage. It is likely, however, that several strategies, including hybrid electrochemical–thermochemical approaches, will suit different applications. It is also clear that more integration between the disciplines of electrochemistry and heterogeneous catalysis is needed to overcome the challenges for advancing the HCO 3 – –HCO 2 – system as a feasible green alternative for storing and transporting energy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Seasonally Modulated Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Alters the Climate Outcomes

Abstract By reflecting some incoming solar radiation, stratospheric aerosol intervention using SO 2 would reduce global mean temperature. Previous research has shown that multiple injection latitudes can be used to maintain not only global mean temperature, but also interhemispheric and equator‐to‐pole temperature gradients. However, the regional climate response depends not only on where the SO 2 is injected, but also on when. We show here that even with these same objectives and same choices of latitudes, injecting in only one season instead of continuously throughout the year results in significant differences in regional climate, for instance in the magnitude of precipitation changes over India. The differential outcomes highlight the potential for underlying trade‐offs, with different choices regarding deployment leading to a different distribution of benefits or harms. This aspect of climate engineering should be considered in developing governance and emphasizes the need for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying the regional responses.

Visioni, Daniele↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Review of CCUS in the Context of Foams, Regulatory Frameworks and Monitoring

Greenhouse gas emission into the atmosphere is considered the main reason for the rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature. According to the Paris Agreement, to prevent the rise of the global average surface temperature beyond two degrees Celsius, global CO2 emissions must be cut substantially. While a transition to a net-zero emission scenario is envisioned by mid-century, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) will play a crucial role in mitigating ongoing greenhouse gas emissions. Injection of CO2 into geological formations is a major pathway to enable large-scale storage. Despite significant recent technological advancements, mass deployment of these technologies still faces several technical and non-technical difficulties. This paper provides an overview of technical milestones reached thus far in CO2 capture, utilization, geological storage, monitoring technologies, and non-technical aspects such as regulatory frameworks and related policies in the US and the rest of the world. This paper describes different injection methods to store CO2 in various subsurface formations, the use of foams and the resulting potential gains in CO2 storage capacity, the role of nanoparticles for foam stabilization, and ensuring long-term storage safety. This work also addresses several safety-related aspects of geological storage and subsurface monitoring technologies that may mitigate risks associated with long-term storage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quinoa Phenotyping Methodologies: An International Consensus

Quinoa is a crop originating in the Andes but grown more widely and with the genetic potential for significant further expansion. Due to the phenotypic plasticity of quinoa, varieties need to be assessed across years and multiple locations. To improve comparability among field trials across the globe and to facilitate collaborations, components of the trials need to be kept consistent, including the type and methods of data collected. Here, an internationally open-access framework for phenotyping a wide range of quinoa features is proposed to facilitate the systematic agronomic, physiological and genetic characterization of quinoa for crop adaptation and improvement. Mature plant phenotyping is a central aspect of this paper, including detailed descriptions and the provision of phenotyping cards to facilitate consistency in data collection. High-throughput methods for multi-temporal phenotyping based on remote sensing technologies are described. Tools for higher-throughput post-harvest phenotyping of seeds are presented. A guideline for approaching quinoa field trials including the collection of environmental data and designing layouts with statistical robustness is suggested. To move towards developing resources for quinoa in line with major cereal crops, a database was created. The Quinoa Germinate Platform will serve as a central repository of data for quinoa researchers globally.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Rock Wettability and Mineralization on CO 2 Storage Efficiency in Basalt Reservoirs

Basalt formations have emerged as highly promising targets for geological CO 2 storage due to their abundance of reactive silicate minerals that can rapidly convert dissolved CO 2 into stable carbonate minerals. The efficiency of CO 2 trapping in basalts, however, depends not only on their geochemical reactivity but also on reservoir wettability, which governs how CO 2 partitions among structural, residual, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms. However, wettability and mineral kinetics have largely been examined separately, wettability for plume migration and kinetics in terms of mineralization, leaving their coupled impact unquantified. Here, we systematically integrate th ese processes in a reservoir-scale reactive transport model to quantify the impact of three distinct wettability conditions (water-wet, mixed-wet, and CO 2 -wet) on plume migration, mineral precipitation, pore-scale blockage, and long-term immobilization. Results show that under ideal conditions (no mineralization), water-wet systems exhibited plume aspect ratios up to 28% higher than CO 2 -wet systems and promoted at least 60% greater residual trapping. When mineralization was incorporated, mineral trapping accounted for 57%, 53%, and 46% of the total immobilized CO 2 in water-wet, mixed-wet, and CO 2 -wet systems, respectively. Dissolved CO 2 contributed 43-46%, while residual trapping remained below 5%, and mobile CO 2 was substantially reduced due to mineralization, demonstrating that as the system becomes more water-wet, CO 2 is more effectively converted into stable carbonate minerals, although extensive mineral precipitation may lead to pore clogging. A global Sobol-Morris sensitivity analysis further reveals that the kinetic parameters of reactive minerals are the most influential factor, followed by wettability, while salinity has only a minor influence. Furthermore, these findings highlight that wettability is not merely a flow property but a fundamental control on CO 2 mineralization in basalts, with direct implications for site selection for storage projects.

Basalts↗

DOE OSTI2022

Contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons in strategic deterrence and competition: A SOCOM perspective. Part of Section: United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine demonstrates the challenge for strategic deterrence and competition of countering contentious narratives and disinformation about weapons of mass destruction (WMD) during conventional regional wars against a nucleararmed adversary. Moscow uses both tailored, contentious narratives and targeted disinformation about WMD in Ukraine to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in support of its deterrence and competition objectives vis-à-vis the United States and NATO. Since December 2021, Moscow has made a focal point of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons in its efforts to establish a permissive environment for its military buildup on the border with Ukraine and then its military intervention. These information tactics also demonstrate an opportunity for US Special Operations Forces (SOF). They are a case study for considering how SOF can contribute to strategic deterrence and competition objectives, specifically countering adversary gray-zone information efforts to alter regional security orders.1 Such a role is in line with the 2022 Special Operations Forces Vision and Strategy, which provides a framework for the evolution of SOF into “a force capable of creating strategic, asymmetric advantages for the nation as a key contributor of integrated deterrence” (United States Special Operations Command, 2022). This paper briefly examines this strategic challenge and SOF opportunity, focusing narrowly on the distinction between contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and the role of SOF in countering these gray-zone information tactics. The nuclear dimension of Moscow’s contentious narratives and disinformation in the “special military operation” is of particular interest because it demonstrates the distinction between strategic efforts to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in Moscow’s favor. This distinction between influence and disruption is less clear with Russia’s contentious narratives and disinformation about chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine, as disinformation about these two types of WMD appears to overwhelm contentious narratives. We believe this distinction is useful for policymakers and warfighters responsible for countering gray-zone information tactics because it provides a framework for crafting tailored responses to contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and other WMD. The chapter concludes with a discussion of efforts that could be undertaken by SOF in cooperation with other relevant stakeholders to address this aspect of adversary gray-zone information tactics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of hardened cement degradation and estimation of uncertainty in predicted failure times with peridynamics

Modeling the degradation of cement-based infrastructure due to aqueous environmental conditions continues to be a challenge. In order to develop a capability to predict concrete infrastructure failure due to chemical degradation, here we created a chemomechanical model of the effects of long-term water exposure on cement paste. The model couples the mechanical static equilibrium balance with reactive–diffusive transport and incorporates fracture and failure via peridynamics (a meshless simulation method). The model includes fundamental aspects of degradation of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) paste, including the observed softening, reduced toughness, and shrinkage of the cement paste, and increased reactivity and transport with water induced degradation. This version of the model focuses on the first stage of cement paste decalcification, the dissolution of portlandite. Given unknowns in the cement paste degradation process and the cost of uncertainty quantification (UQ), we adopt a minimally complex model in two dimensions (2D) in order to perform sensitivity analysis and UQ. We calibrate the model to existing experimental data using simulations of common tests such as flexure, compression and diffusion. Then we calculate the global sensitivity and uncertainty of predicted failure times based on variation of eleven unique and fundamental material properties. We observed particularly strong sensitivities to the diffusion coefficient, the reaction rate, and the shrinkage with degradation. Also, the predicted time of first fracture is highly correlated with the time to total failure in compression, which implies fracture can indicate impending degradation induced failure; however, the distributions of the two events overlap so the lead time may be minimal. Extension of the model to include the multiple reactions that describe complete degradation, viscous relaxation, post-peak load mechanisms, and to three dimensions to explore the interactions of complex fracture patterns evoked by more realistic geometry is straightforward and ongoing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗