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At least 217 records · Page 12

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extreme high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled by BC $\times$ 10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) (a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three sub-regions including East Asian, South Asian, and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land-sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation; whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extreme high BC level, that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lattice theory of three-dimensional cracks

The problem of the stability of a three-dimensional crack is analyzed within a lattice-statics approximation. The consequence of introducing a jog into the crack face as well as the effects of various nonlinear-force laws are studied. The phenomenon of lattice trapping (upper and lower bounds on the applied stress for an equilibrium crack of given length) is again obtained. It is possible to obtain some physical insight into which aspects of the force law are critical for crack stability. In particular, the inadequacy of a thermodynamic approach - which relates the critical stress to a surface energy corresponding to the area under the cohesive-force-vs-displacement curve - is demonstrated. Surface energy is a global property of the cohesive-force law. Crack stability is sensitive to much more refined aspects of the cohesive-force law. Crack healing is sensitive to the long-range portion of the cohesive force. Crack expansion is sensitive to the position of the maximum in the cohesive-force relation.

Esterling, D. M.↗

Global relationships in tree functional traits

Due to massive energetic investments in woody support structures, trees are subject to unique physiological, mechanical, and ecological pressures not experienced by herbaceous plants. Despite a wealth of studies exploring trait relationships across the entire plant kingdom, the dominant traits underpinning these unique aspects of tree form and function remain unclear. Here, by considering 18 functional traits, encompassing leaf, seed, bark, wood, crown, and root characteristics, we quantify the multidimensional relationships in tree trait expression. We find that nearly half of trait variation is captured by two axes: one reflecting leaf economics, the other reflecting tree size and competition for light. Yet these orthogonal axes reveal strong environmental convergence, exhibiting correlated responses to temperature, moisture, and elevation. By subsequently exploring multidimensional trait relationships, we show that the full dimensionality of trait space is captured by eight distinct clusters, each reflecting a unique aspect of tree form and function. Collectively, this work identifies a core set of traits needed to quantify global patterns in functional biodiversity, and it contributes to our fundamental understanding of the functioning of forests worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of the ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extremely high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled BC×10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E; a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three subregions, including East Asian, South Asian and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land–sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation, whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extremely high BC level: that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New efforts in improving numerical aspects of atmospheric physics parameterizations

This is an invited article for GEWEX Quarterly, the newsletter of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program which is a core project of the World Climate Research Programme (https://www.gewex.org/resources/gewex-news/). The article introduces recent research results and ongoing activities being carried out in a SciDAC project funded by DOE that focuses on identifying and addressing numerical issues in physics parameterizations in global atmospheric general circulation models.

global atmospheric model↗

Approaches to investigate crop responses to ozone pollution: from O 3 -FACE to satellite-enabled modeling

Ozone (O 3 ) is a damaging air pollutant to crops. As one of the most reactive oxidants known, O 3 rapidly forms other reactive oxygen species (ROS) once it enters leaves through stomata. Those ROS in turn can cause oxidative stress, reduce photosynthesis, accelerate senescence, and decrease crop yield. To improve and adapt our feed, fuel, and food supply to rising O 3 pollution, a number of Free Air Concentration Enrichment (O 3 -FACE) facilities have been developed around the world and have studied key staple crops. In this review, we provide an overview of the FACE facilities and highlight some of the lessons learned from the last two decades of research. We discuss the differences between C 3 and C 4 crop responses to elevated O 3 , the possible trade-off between productivity and protection, genetic variation in O 3 response within and across species, and how we might leverage this observed variation for crop improvement. We also highlight the need to improve understanding of the interaction between rising O 3 pollution and other aspects of climate change, notably drought. Finally, we propose the use of globally modeled O 3 data that are available at increasing spatial and temporal resolutions to expand upon the research conducted at the limited number of global O 3 -FACE facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building surrogate models of nuclear density functional theory with Gaussian processes and autoencoders

From the lightest Hydrogen isotopes up to the recently synthesized Oganesson (Z = 118), it is estimated that as many as about 8,000 atomic nuclei could exist in nature. Most of these nuclei are too short-lived to be occurring on Earth, but they play an essential role in astrophysical events such as supernova explosions or neutron star mergers that are presumed to be at the origin of most heavy elements in the Universe. Understanding the structure, reactions, and decays of nuclei across the entire chart of nuclides is an enormous challenge because of the experimental difficulties in measuring properties of interest in such fleeting objects and the theoretical and computational issues of simulating strongly-interacting quantum many-body systems. Nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is a fully microscopic theoretical framework which has the potential of providing such a quantitatively accurate description of nuclear properties for every nucleus in the chart of nuclides. Thanks to high-performance computing facilities, it has already been successfully applied to predict nuclear masses, global patterns of radioactive decay like β or γ decay, and several aspects of the nuclear fission process such as, e.g., spontaneous fission half-lives. Yet, predictive simulations of nuclear spectroscopy—the low-lying excited states and transitions between them—or of nuclear fission, or the quantification of theoretical uncertainties and their propagation to basic or applied nuclear science applications, would require several orders of magnitude more calculations than currently possible. However, most of this computational effort would be spent into generating a suitable basis of DFT wavefunctions. Such a task could potentially be considerably accelerated by borrowing tools from the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence. In this paper, we review different approaches to applying supervised and unsupervised learning techniques to nuclear DFT.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Thermal and Albedo Mapping of Mars During the Viking Primary Mission

The behavior of Mars as observed by the Viking infrared thermal mapper (IRTM) is considered. The IRTM is a 28-channel, 4-telescope radiometer that operated in six spectral bands. The studies considered include observations from the interplanetary phase through data collection on November 7, 1976. During this interval, thermal mapping of the whole Martian surface has been possible. Attention is given to polar temperatures, global albedos, predawn temperatures, a thermal inertia contour map, geometry considerations, clouds, aspects of predawn warming, and observations of earth.

Kieffer, H. H.↗

Space manufacturing III; Proceedings of the Fourth Conference, Princeton University, Princeton, N.J., May 14-17, 1979

Papers are presented on the various technological, political, economic, environmental and social aspects of large manufacturing facilities in space. Specific topics include the potential global market for satellite solar power stations in 2025, the electrostatic separation of lunar soil, methods for extraterrestrial materials processing, the socio-political status of efforts toward the development of space manufacturing facilities, the financing of space industrialization, the optimization of space manufacturing systems, the design and project status of Mass Driver Two, and the use of laser-boosted lighter-than-air-vehicles as heavy-lift launch vehicles. Attention is also given to systems integration in the development of controlled ecological life support systems, the design of a space manufacturing facility to use lunar materials, high performance solar sails, the environmental effects of the satellite power system reference design, the guidance, trajectory and capture of lunar materials ejected from the moon by mass driver, the relative design merits of zero-gravity and one-gravity space environments, consciousness alteration in space and the prospecting and retrieval of asteroids.

Grey, J.↗

The effect of brokenness on cloud-climate sensitivity

A study has been made of the effect of brokenness on the infrared and albedo feedback of clouds in climate models using a simplified treatment of broken cloudiness. It is shown that the individual feedback terms computed using the plane-parallel assumption differ markedly from the computations performed for a regular array of cuboidal clouds. If the cloudiness changes such that clear areas become cloudy but the nature of the broken cloud field remains unchanged, then both the feedbacks are magnified, the infrared more so than the albedo. However, if individual elements in the cloud field are increased horizontally in a constrained area, the feedbacks can be enhanced or diminished depending on the cloud fraction and aspect ratio of the elements. It is also shown that, in the global average, the ratio of the change in outgoing infrared flux to global albedo, as deduced from satellite measurements, will be larger than model simulations using planiform clouds.

Harshvardhan, MR.↗

Long-Life Catalyst

STC Catalysts, Inc. (SCi) manufactures a noble metal reducible oxide catalyst consisting primarily of platinum and tin dioxide deposited on a ceramic substrate. It is an ambient temperature oxidation catalyst that was developed primarily for Carbon Dioxide Lasers.The catalyst was developed by the NASA Langley Research Center for the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder Program (LAWS) which was intended to measure wind velocity on a global basis. There are a number of NASA owned patents covering various aspects of the catalyst.

Source record↗

Using Historical Precipitation, Temperature, and Runoff Observations to Evaluate Evaporation Formulations in Land Surface Models

Key to translating soil moisture memory into subseasonal precipitation and air temperature forecast skill is a realistic treatment of evaporation in the forecast system used - in particular, a realistic treatment of how evaporation responds to variations in soil moisture. The inherent soil moisture-evaporation relationships used in today's land surface models (LSMs), however, arguably reflect little more than guesswork given the lack of evaporation and soil moisture data at the spatial scales represented by regional and global models. Here we present a new approach for evaluating this critical aspect of LSMs. Seasonally averaged precipitation is used as a proxy for seasonally-averaged soil moisture, and seasonally-averaged air temperature is used as a proxy for seasonally-averaged evaporation (e.g., more evaporative cooling leads to cooler temperatures)~ the relationship between historical precipitation and temperature measurements accordingly mimics in certain important ways nature's relationship between soil moisture and evaporation. Additional information on the relationship is gleaned from joint analysis of precipitation and streamflow measurements. An experimental framework that utilizes these ideas to guide the development of an improved soil moisture-evaporation relationship is described and demonstrated.

Koster, Randal D.↗

Plasma self-driven current in tokamaks with magnetic islands

Magnetic island perturbations may cause a reduction in plasma self-driven current that is needed for tokamak operation. A novel effect on tokamak self-driven current revealed by global gyrokinetic simulations is due to magnetic-island-induced 3D electric potential structures, which have the same dominant mode numbers as that of the magnetic island, whereas centered at both the inner and outer edge of the island. The non-resonant potential islands are shown to drive a current through an efficient nonlinear parallel acceleration of electrons. In large aspect ratio (large-A) tokamak devices, this new effect can result in a significant global reduction of the electron bootstrap current when the island size is sufficiently large, in addition to the local current loss across the island region due to the pressure profile flattening. It is shown that there exists a critical magnetic island width for large-A tokamaks beyond which the electron bootstrap current loss is global and increases rapidly with the island size. As such, this process may introduce a size limit for tolerable magnetic islands in large-A tokamak devices in the context of steady state operation. On the other hand, the current loss caused by magnetic islands in low-A tokamaks such as spherical tokamak (ST) NSTX/U is minor. The reduction of the axisymmetric current by magnetic islands scales with the square of island width. However, the loss of the current is mainly local to the island region, and the pace of current loss as the island size increases is substantially slower compared to large-A tokamaks. In particular, the bootstrap current reduction in STs is even smaller in the reactor-relevant high-β p regime where neoclassical tearing modes are more likely to develop.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Infrasonic Detection of a Large Bolide over South Sulawesi, Indonesia on October 8, 2009: Preliminary Results

In the morning hours of October 8, 2009, a bright object entered Earth's atmosphere over South Sulawesi, Indonesia. This bolide disintegrated above the ground, generating stratospheric infrasound returns that were detected by infrasonic stations of the global International Monitoring System (IMS) Network of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) at distances up to 17 500 km. Here we present instrumental recordings and preliminary results of this extraordinary event. Using the infrasonic period-yield relations, originally derived for atmospheric nuclear detonations, we find the most probable source energy for this bolide to be 70+/-20 kt TNT equivalent explosive yield. A unique aspect of this event is the fact that it was apparently detected by infrasound only. Global events of such magnitude are expected only once per decade and can be utilized to calibrate infrasonic location and propagation tools on a global scale, and to evaluate energy yield formula, and event timing.

Silber, E. A.↗

Anomalies of 4d SpinG theories

Abstract We consider ’t Hooft anomalies of four-dimensional gauge theories whose fermion matter content admits Spin G (4) generalized spin structure, withGeither gauged or a global symmetry. We discuss methods to directly computew 2 ∪w 3 ’t Hooft anomalies involving Stiefel-Whitney classes of gauge and flavor symmetry bundles that such theories can have on non-spin manifolds, e.g.M 4 = ℂℙ 2 . Such anomalies have been discussed for SU(2) gauge theory with adjoint fermions, where they were shown to give an effect that was originally found in the Donaldson-Witten topological twist of$$ \mathcal{N} $$ N = 2 SYM theory. We directly compute these anomalies for a variety of theories, including generalGgauge theories with adjoint fermions, SU(2) gauge theory with fermions in general representations, and Spin(N) gauge theories with fundamental matter. We discuss aspects of matching these and other ’t Hooft anomalies in the IR phase where global symmetries are spontaneously broken, in particular for generalG gauge theory withN f adjoint Weyl fermions. For example, in the case ofN f = 2 we discuss anomaly matching in the IR phase consisting of$$ {h}_{G_{\textrm{gauge}}}^{\vee } $$ h G gauge ∨ copies of a ℂℙ 1 non-linear sigma model, including for thew 2 w 3 anomalies when formulated with$$ {\textrm{Spin}}_{\textrm{SU}{(2)}_{\textrm{global}}}(4) $$ Spin SU 2 global 4 structure.

Physics↗

Metal-organic frameworks as effective sensors and scavengers for toxic environmental pollutants

Abstract Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) constructed from a rich library of organic struts and metal ions/clusters represent promising candidates for a wide range of applications. The unique structure, porous nature, easy tunability and processability of these materials make them an outstanding class of materials for tackling serious global problems relating to energy and environment. Among them, environmental pollution is one aspect that has increased at an alarming rate in the past decade or so. With rapid urbanization and industrialization, toxic environmental pollutants are constantly released and accumulated leading to serious contamination in water bodies and thereby having adverse effects on human health. Recent studies have shown that many toxic pollutants, as listed by the World Health Organization and the US Environmental Protection Agency, can be selectively detected, captured, sequestered and removed by MOFs from air and aquatic systems. Most of these sensing/capture processes in MOFs are quantifiable and effective for even a trace amount of the targeted chemical species. The functional sites (ligands and metals) play a critical role in such recognition processes and offer an extensive scope of structural tunability for guest (pollutants, toxic entities) recognition. Whereas on the one hand, the underlying mechanisms governing such sensing and capture are important, it is also crucial to identify MOFs that are best suited for commercial applications for the future. In this review article, we provide an overview of the most recent progress in the sensing, capture and removal of various common toxic pollutants, including neutral and ionic, inorganic and organic species, with brief discussions on the mechanism and efficacy of selected MOFs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗