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At least 217 records · Page 12

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of 37-90 billion and investment of 1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate change impacts the spread potential of wheat stem rust, a significant crop disease

Abstract Long range atmospheric transport is an important pathway for the spread of plant pathogens, such as rust fungi which can devastate cereal crop health and food security worldwide. In recent years, serious concern has been caused by the evolution of new virulent races of Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici , a pathogen causing wheat stem rust that can result in close to 100% yield losses on susceptible wheat cultivars in favourable weather conditions. We applied an Earth system model to compare the suitability of the current climate and a business-as-usual climate scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2100 for wheat stem rust. Although there are large uncertainties in modelling changes in disease spread, we focus in this paper on the changes which are likely to be robust to model assumptions. We show that the warmer climate with lower relative humidity and enhanced turbulence will lead to ∼40% increase in the urediniospore emitting potential of an infected field as global average. The main predicted changes in the atmospheric long-range transport include reduced connections between Europe, Africa and South Asia, and increased frequency of spores crossing the mid-latitude oceans. Due to reduction in subfreezing conditions, the overwintering areas of the fungus will expand. On the other hand, projected drier conditions will reduce substantially the probability of an infection starting from deposited spores, except in irrigated fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗

Bioeconomic benefits of managing fishing effort in a coexisting small- and large-scale fishery game

Abstract Fishing systems provide employment, income generation, poverty alleviation, and food security. The coexistence of small-scale fisheries (SSFs) and large-scale fisheries (LSFs) increases management complexity. Management actions have ecological and social implications that must be addressed carefully. We applied a bioeconomic game-theoretical model to the four-gear mullet fishery in southern Brazil—one industrial LSF (purse seine) and three artisanal SSFs (gillnet, beach seine, and drift net). All fishing gears target adult individuals during mullet's reproductive migration. First, we explored whether the current fishing efforts of all fishing gears could persist over time. Second, we investigated their interactions through a non-cooperative game. Finally, we studied the response of these interactions when fishing effort was restricted. We found that when the current fishing effort was maintained, the stock reduced to 26.4% of its capacity in 25 years. In addition, under non-cooperation, the traditional beach seine fleet exited the fishery. Interestingly, the constrained scenario had a coexistence output with increasing values for the final stock size and the per capita labour income, suggesting that limiting fishing effort can maintain all fishing gears in the fishery with social and ecological benefits.

de Azevedo, Eric Zettermann Dias (ORCID:0000000323↗

Perspectives on improving photosynthesis to increase crop yield

Abstract Improving photosynthesis, the fundamental process by which plants convert light energy into chemical energy, is a key area of research with great potential for enhancing sustainable agricultural productivity and addressing global food security challenges. This perspective delves into the latest advancements and approaches aimed at optimizing photosynthetic efficiency. Our discussion encompasses the entire process, beginning with light harvesting and its regulation and progressing through the bottleneck of electron transfer. We then delve into the carbon reactions of photosynthesis, focusing on strategies targeting the enzymes of the Calvin–Benson–Bassham (CBB) cycle. Additionally, we explore methods to increase carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration near the Rubisco, the enzyme responsible for the first step of CBB cycle, drawing inspiration from various photosynthetic organisms, and conclude this section by examining ways to enhance CO2 delivery into leaves. Moving beyond individual processes, we discuss two approaches to identifying key targets for photosynthesis improvement: systems modeling and the study of natural variation. Finally, we revisit some of the strategies mentioned above to provide a holistic view of the improvements, analyzing their impact on nitrogen use efficiency and on canopy photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DIRT/3D: 3D root phenotyping for field-grown maize ( Zea mays )

The development of crops with deeper roots holds substantial promise to mitigate the consequences of climate change. Deeper roots are an essential factor to improve water uptake as a way to enhance crop resilience to drought, to increase nitrogen capture, to reduce fertilizer inputs, and to increase carbon sequestration from the atmosphere to improve soil organic fertility. A major bottleneck to achieving these improvements is high-throughput phenotyping to quantify root phenotypes of field-grown roots. We address this bottleneck with Digital Imaging of Root Traits (DIRT)/3D, an image-based 3D root phenotyping platform, which measures 18 architecture traits from mature field-grown maize (Zea mays) root crowns (RCs) excavated with the Shovelomics technique. DIRT/3D reliably computed all 18 traits, including distance between whorls and the number, angles, and diameters of nodal roots, on a test panel of 12 contrasting maize genotypes. The computed results were validated through comparison with manual measurements. Overall, we observed a coefficient of determination of r 2 > 0.84 and a high broad-sense heritability of H$_{mean}^{2}$ < 0.6 for all but one trait. The average values of the 18 traits and a developed descriptor to characterize complete root architecture distinguished all genotypes. DIRT/3D is a step toward automated quantification of highly occluded maize RCs. Therefore, DIRT/3D supports breeders and root biologists in improving carbon sequestration and food security in the face of the adverse effects of climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Biotic Interactions Are More Important than Propagule Pressure in Microbial Community Invasions

ABSTRACT Microbial probiotics are intended to improve functions in diverse ecosystems, yet probiotics often fail to establish in a preexisting microbiome. This is a species invasion problem. The relative importance of the two major factors controlling establishment in this context—propagule pressure (inoculation dose and frequency) and biotic interactions (composition of introduced and resident communities)—is unknown. We tested the effect of these factors in driving microbial composition and functioning following 12 microbial community invasions (e.g., introductions of many microbial invaders) in microcosms. Ecosystem functioning over a 30-day postinvasion period was assessed by measuring activity (respiration) and environment modification (dissolved organic carbon abundance). To test the dependence on environmental context, experiments were performed in two resource environments. In both environments, biotic interactions were more important than propagule pressure in driving microbial composition and community function, but the magnitude of effect varied by environment. Successful invaders comprised approximately 8% of the total number of operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Bacteria were better invaders than fungi, with average relative abundances of 7.4% ± 6.8% and 1.5% ± 1.4% of OTUs, respectively. Common bacterial invaders were associated with stress response traits. The most resilient bacterial and fungal families, in other words, those least impacted by invasions, were linked to antimicrobial resistance or production traits. Illuminating the principles that determine community composition and functioning following microbial invasions is key to efficient community engineering. IMPORTANCE With increasing frequency, humans are introducing new microbes into preexisting microbiomes to alter functioning. Example applications include modification of microflora in human guts for better health and those of soil for food security and/or climate management. Probiotic applications are often approached as trial-and-error endeavors and have mixed outcomes. We propose that increased success in microbiome engineering may be achieved with a better understanding of microbial invasions. We conducted a microbial community invasion experiment to test the relative importance of propagule pressure and biotic interactions in driving microbial community composition and ecosystem functioning in microcosms. We found that biotic interactions were more important than propagule pressure in determining the impact of microbial invasions. Furthermore, the principles for community engineering vary among organismal groups (bacteria versus fungi).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A roadmap to understanding and anticipating microbial gene transfer in soil communities

Engineered microbes are being programmed using synthetic DNA for applications in soil to overcome global challenges related to climate change, energy, food security, and pollution. However, we cannot yet predict gene transfer processes in soil to assess the frequency of unintentional transfer of engineered DNA to environmental microbes when applying synthetic biology technologies at scale. This challenge exists because of the complex and heterogeneous characteristics of soils, which contribute to the fitness and transport of cells and the exchange of genetic material within communities. Here, we describe knowledge gaps about gene transfer across soil microbiomes. Here, we propose strategies to improve our understanding of gene transfer across soil communities, highlight the need to benchmark the performance of biocontainment measures in situ, and discuss responsibly engaging community stakeholders. We highlight opportunities to address knowledge gaps, such as creating a set of soil standards for studying gene transfer across diverse soil types and measuring gene transfer host range across microbiomes using emerging technologies. By comparing gene transfer rates, host range, and persistence of engineered microbes across different soils, we posit that community-scale, environment-specific models can be built that anticipate biotechnology risks. Such studies will enable the design of safer biotechnologies that allow us to realize the benefits of synthetic biology and mitigate risks associated with the release of such technologies.

bioccontainment↗

Microbial Drivers of Plant Performance during Drought Depend upon Community Composition and the Greater Soil Environment

The increasing occurrence of drought is a global challenge that threatens food security through direct impacts to both plants and their interacting soil microorganisms. Plant growth promoting microbes are increasingly being harnessed to improve plant performance under stress. However, the magnitude of microbiome impacts on both structural and physiological plant traits under water limited and water replete conditions are not well-characterized. Using two microbiomes sourced from a ponderosa pine forest and an agricultural field, we performed a greenhouse experiment that used a crossed design to test the individual and combined effects of the water availability and the soil microbiome composition on plant performance. Specifically, we studied the structural and leaf functional traits of maize that are relevant to drought tolerance. We further examined how microbial relationships with plant phenotypes varied under different combinations of microbial composition and water availability. We found that water availability and microbial composition affected plant structural traits. Surprisingly, they did not alter leaf function. Maize grown in the forest-soil microbiome produced larger plants under well-watered and water-limited conditions, compared to an agricultural soil community. Although leaf functional traits were not significantly different between the watering and microbiome treatments, the bacterial composition and abundance explained significant variability in both plant structure and leaf function within individual treatments, especially water-limited plants. Our results suggest that bacteria-plant interactions that promote plant performance under stress depend upon the greater community composition and the abiotic environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Nomenclatural issues concerning cultured yeasts and other fungi: why it is important to avoid unneeded name changes

The unambiguous application of fungal names is important to communicate scientific findings. Names are critical for (clinical) diagnostics, legal compliance, and regulatory controls, such as biosafety, food security, quarantine regulations, and industrial applications. Consequently, the stability of the taxonomic system and the traceability of nomenclatural changes is crucial for a broad range of users and taxonomists. The unambiguous application of names is assured by the preservation of nomenclatural history and the physical organisms representing a name. Fungi are extremely diverse in terms of ecology, lifestyle, and methods of study. Predominantly unicellular fungi known as yeasts are usually investigated as living cultures. Methods to characterize yeasts include physiological (growth) tests and experiments to induce a sexual morph; both methods require viable cultures. Thus, the preservation and availability of viable reference cultures are important, and cultures representing reference material are cited in species descriptions. Historical surveys revealed drawbacks and inconsistencies between past practices and modern requirements as stated in the International Code of Nomenclature for Algae, Fungi, and Plants (ICNafp). Improper typification of yeasts is a common problem, resulting in a large number invalid yeast species names. With this opinion letter, we address the problem that culturable microorganisms, notably some fungi and algae, require specific provisions under the ICNafp. We use yeasts as a prominent example of fungi known from cultures. But viable type material is important not only for yeasts, but also for other cultivable Fungi that are characterized by particular morphological structures (a specific type of spores), growth properties, and secondary metabolites. We summarize potential proposals which, in our opinion, will improve the stability of fungal names, in particular by protecting those names for which the reference material can be traced back to the original isolate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

On the variability of the Bering Sea Cold Pool and implications for the biophysical environment

The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2°C) is formed on the shelf each winter as a result of cooling and vertical mixing due to brine rejection during the predominately local sea ice growth. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP) is largely controlled by the winter extent of sea ice in the Bering Sea, which can vary considerably and recently has been much lower than average. The cold bottom water of the CP is important for food security because it delineates the boundary between arctic and subarctic demersal fish species. A northward retreat of the CP will likely be associated with migration of subarctic species toward the Chukchi Sea. We use the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to examine variability of the extent and distribution of the CP and its relation to change in the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea during the period 1980–2018. RASM results confirm the direct correlation between the extent of sea ice and the CP and show a smaller CP as a consequence of realistically simulated recent declines of the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea. In fact, the area of the CP was found to be only 31% of the long-term mean in July of 2018. In addition, we also find that a low ice year is followed by a later diatom bloom, while a heavy ice year is followed by an early diatom bloom. Finally, the RASM probabilistic intra-annual forecast capability is reviewed, based on 31-member ensembles for 2019–2021, for its potential use for prediction of the winter sea ice cover and the subsequent summer CP area in the Bering Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Antibacterial Minerals: A geochemical approach to combating antibiotic resistance

The rapid rise of antibiotic resistant bacteria is seriously threatening our ability to treat lifethreatening infections. As a result, our approach to medicine and agriculture will require significant changes if we are to successfully maintain current levels of healthcare and food security. Certain naturally occurring clays have been shown to harbor antimicrobial properties and kill antibiotic resistant bacteria. These clays have been proposed as a new paradigm for fighting the potentially devastating effects of the post antibiotic era. However, natural samples, by their inherent properties, exhibit variable antibacterial effectiveness and the synthesis of minerals with reproducible antibacterial activity is needed. Our project focused on 3 specific aims; 1) develop synthetic versions of naturally occurring bactericidal minerals to control the chemical purity and antibacterial potency, 2) determine how effective these mineral formulations are at killing antibiotic resistant bacteria and 3) investigate the response of human skin cell cultures to these antibacterial minerals. Utilizing hydrothermal based methods our team was able to reproduce the antibacterial activity observed in natural antibacterial minerals, while eliminating unwanted elemental impurities. Importantly, we were able to create a mineral based bactericide that has reproducible reactivity that could provide a consistent dose response. These antibacterial mineral formulations are effective at killing common hospital acquired antibiotic resistant bacteria while providing minimal toxicity to human fibroblasts. Our research has optimized the antibacterial properties of antibacterial minerals to allow greater efficacy from a public health perspective.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Adapting Agrivoltaics for Solar Mini-Grids in Haiti

With less than 2% of the rural population with access to electricity and almost half the population facing acute hunger, Haiti faces interconnected challenges of energy poverty and food insecurity. One solution to help address energy poverty in Haiti has been the development of distributed solar, particularly solar mini-grids. However, often the land best suited for deploying solar generation is also best suited for agriculture by smallholder farmers, thereby creating a potentially complicated tension between energy access and food security. To address this tension, solar developers, agricultural specialists, and researchers are jointly examining a novel solution called "agrivoltaics." Agrivoltaics is a shared land-use solution that is rapidly expanding in established solar markets like the United States, Europe, and Asia that pairs solar with agriculture, producing electricity and providing space for crops and animal grazing under and between panels. As part of the Energy Access Partnership for Haiti with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) performed an initial feasibility analysis and stakeholder engagement project to evaluate the potential for agrivoltaics in mini-grid contexts in Haiti. The analysis considered typical 100-kW and larger 1-MW mini-grids in towns across Haiti and developed two example agrivoltaic archetypes based on key local inputs, including solar irradiance, production data from the agricultural census, market prices, stakeholder interviews, and existing agrivoltaic research. See NREL/TP-7A40-89399 for the Haitian Creole translation of this document.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Primer: Physical Factors of Agricultural Production & Climate Change

This white paper is a primer on physical factors that influence agricultural production and associated touchpoints to climate change. Agricultural production (which includes both crop and livestock production) is critical for food security and supports other economic products, such as textiles and generation of fuels for energy. Various physical factors influence agricultural production, including the crop types being cultivated and livestock being raised; land area and quality; water access and control; fertilizers, pesticides, and antibiotics; labor; and infrastructure associated with processing, storage, and transportation. These factors are impacted by climate change in both chronic and acute ways, from changing temperatures and precipitation patterns to increased prevalence of extreme events and diseases. We draw on examples from around the world to show the complex ways that agricultural production factors and climate interact with local capacities to influence regions around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Zero-Power Wireless Infrared Digitizing Sensors for Large Scale Energy-Smart Farm

This project, funded by ARPA-E and led by Northeastern University, developed zeropower infrared digitizing sensors to optimize irrigation and enhance crop yields. Traditional water stress detection methods are costly and require frequent maintenance, limiting their effectiveness. Our research identified shortwave infrared (SWIR) transmittance as the most reliable indicator of plant water stress and developed plasmonically enhanced micromechanical photoswitches (PMPs) that operate with minimal power. The sensors offer low-cost, large-scale deployment, auto-calibration across different crops, and a 10-year battery life, significantly reducing maintenance costs. The system achieved 4x greater accuracy than conventional soil moisture sensors while ensuring economic feasibility. By enabling precision irrigation, this technology conserves water, enhances crop productivity, and lowers operational costs, making it a scalable solution for sustainable agriculture and global food security.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

TGCM: (T)rait, (G)ene, and (C)rop Growth (M)odel Directed Targeted Gene Characterization in Sorghum (Final Technical Report)

Understanding which genes control important crop traits could help scientists develop better bioenergy and food crops more efficiently. However, plant genomes contain tens of thousands of genes, and testing each one individually is expensive and time-consuming. This project developed computational tools to predict which genes are most likely to matter, allowing researchers to focus their efforts where they will have the greatest impact. This project developed and validated integrated approaches combining machine learning, quantitative genetics, and crop growth modeling to improve the efficiency of functional gene characterization in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a critical bioenergy and food security crop. The research addressed a fundamental challenge in plant biology: the majority of genes in plant genomes lack experimentally validated functions, making it difficult to prioritize which genes to study using resource-intensive reverse genetics approaches.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Novel Mutant Alleles Reveal a Role of the Extra-Large G Protein in Rice Grain Filling, Panicle Architecture, Plant Growth, and Disease Resistance

Plant growth and grain filling are the key agronomical traits for grain weight and yield of rice. The continuous improvement in rice yield is required for a future sustainable global economy and food security. The heterotrimeric G protein complex containing a canonical α subunit (RGA1) couples extracellular signals perceived by receptors to modulate cell function including plant development and grain weight. We hypothesized that, besides RGA1, three atypical, extra-large GTP-binding protein (XLG) subunits also regulate panicle architecture, plant growth, development, grain weight, and disease resistance. Here, we identified a role of XLGs in agronomic traits and stress tolerance by genetically ablating all three rice XLGs individually and in combination using the CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing in rice. For this study, eight (three single, two double, and three triple) null mutants were selected. Three XLG proteins combinatorically regulate seed filling, because loss confers a decrease in grain weight from 14% with loss of one XLG and loss of three to 32% decrease in grain weight. Null mutations in XLG2 and XLG4 increase grain size. The mutants showed significantly reduced panicle length and number per plant including lesser number of grains per panicle compared to the controls. Loss-of-function of all individual XLGs contributed to 9% more aerial biomass compared to wild type (WT). The double mutant showed improved salinity tolerance. Moreover, loss of the XLG gene family confers hypersensitivity to pathogens. Our findings suggest that the non-canonical XLGs play important roles in regulating rice plant growth, grain filling, panicle phenotype, stress tolerance, and disease resistance. Genetic manipulation of XLG s has the potential to improve agronomic properties in rice.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗