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Evaluation Analysis of NASA SMAP L3 and L4 and SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture Data in the United States

Soil moisture has a critical role in the development, frequency and persistence of climatic and hydrologic extremes such as drought, heat wave and flooding events. In situ soil moisture data are uneven and sparse in time and space. This highlights the need to utilize other soil moisture sources to fill this spatiotemporal gap. The goal of this study is to validate one satellite-based and two model-based soil moisture datasets with in situ data across the United States. Soil moisture information from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) enhanced level 3 (L3) (SMAP L3) and modeled level 4 (L4) (SMAP L4) data at 9-km resolution and Short-term Prediction Research and Transition-Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) modeled at 3-km resolution were selected for evaluation. SPoRT-LIS is a near real-time, high resolution operational land analysis data. Ground-based data were obtained from the North American Soil Moisture Database (NASMD) for 362 stations. Seven statistical indicators including anomaly, Spearman, and Pearson correlation coefficients, the systematic error (Bias), root mean square error (RMSE), unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), and normalized standard deviation (SDV) were used to evaluate the satellite- and model-derived soil moisture data. In addition, the triple collocation (TC) error model was used to measure the error among SMAP L4, SPoRT-LIS and ground-based data. This study assesses which satellite or modeled dataset is most appropriate for specific times and locations to use as a surrogate for in situ observations. Temporal and spatial analysis demonstrated that, overall, SMAP L4 performed better than SMAP L3 and SPoRT-LIS. Strong agreement was observed between SMAP L4 and in situ observations (ρ = 0.53, Bias = −0.006) in all seasons and most regions with various land covers, especially in winter and in the central regions of the United States. For croplands, SMAP L4 presented the best agreement with in situ data, analyzing all period (ρ = 0.60) and non-winter period (ρ = 0.61) separately.

Tavakol, Ameneh↗

Ceramic oxide reactions with V2O5 and SO3

Ceramic oxides are not inert in combustion environments, but can react with, inter alia, SO3, and Na2SO4 to yield low melting mixed sulfate eutectics, and with vanadium compounds to produce vanadates. Assuming ceramic degradation to become severe only when molten phases are generated in the surface salt (as found for metallic hot corrosion), the reactivity of ceramic oxides can be quantified by determining the SO3 partial pressure necessary for molten mixed sulfate formation with Na2SO3. Vanadium pentoxide is an acidic oxide that reacts with Na2O, SO3, and the different ceramic oxides in a series of Lux-Flood type of acid-base displacement reactions. To elucidate the various possible vanadium compound-ceramic oxide interactions, a study was made of the reactions of a matrix involving, on the one axis, ceramix oxides of increasing acidity, and on the other axis, vanadium compounds of increasing acidity. Resistance to vanadium compound reaction increased as the oxide acidity increased. Oxides more acidic than ZrO2 displaced V2O5. Examination of Y2O3- and CeO2-stabilized ZrO2 sintered ceramics which were degraded in 700 C NaVO3 has shown good agreement with the reactions predicted above, except that the CeO2-ZrO2 ceramic appears to be inexplicably degraded by NaVO3.

Jones, R. L.↗

Flood and Landslide Applications of High Time Resolution Satellite Rain Products

Experimental, potentially real-time systems to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events are described. A key basis for these applications is high time resolution satellite rainfall analyses. Rainfall is the primary cause for devastating floods across the world. However, in many countries, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to insufficient ground networks and absence of data sharing along many trans-boundary river basins. Remotely sensed precipitation from the NASA's TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) operational system (near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg) is used to monitor extreme precipitation events. Then these data are ingested into a macro-scale hydrological model which is parameterized using spatially distributed elevation, soil and land cover datasets available globally from satellite remote sensing. Preliminary flood results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events, with implementation on a quasi-global basis underway. With the availability of satellite rainfall analyses at fine time resolution, it has also become possible to assess landslide risk on a near-global basis. Early results show that landslide occurrence is closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of TRMM rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslides triggered by rainfall is related to rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms. For the purpose of prediction, an empirical TMPA-based rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed and shown to have skill in determining potential areas of landslides. These experimental findings, in combination with landslide surface susceptibility information based on satellite-based land surface information, form a starting point towards a potential operational landslide monitoring/warning system around the globe.

Adler, Robert F.↗

The International Summer School on Land Cover Change and Hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin

The La Plata Basin (LPB) in southern South America has been subject to land cover and land use changes (LCLUCs) since colonial times and with an accelerated rate in the last decades and over extensive areas. The work of Ameghino even suggested that there were relations between those land use changes and the frequency of droughts and floods in the region. Despite this early knowledge, not much is known of the potential impacts of LCLUC on the hydroclimate of the La Plata basin. Besides, over the last century much of the La Plata Basin has had a reported increase in precipitation and heavy rains, and these changes along with an increase in population growth - have resulted in more adverse effects from flooding. To draw attention to these issues, during two weeks in November 2009 the International Summer School on Land Cover Change and Hydroclimate of the La Plata Basin was organized at the grounds of the Itaip Hydropower Plant in Brazil. The school was the result of the combination of interests between the La Plata Basin Regional Hydroclimate Project, the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), and the International Hydroinformatics Center (IHC) in Itaip . LPB is an umbrella project endorsed by the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Climate Prediction and Variability (CLIVAR), both of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). LPB has made a priority to train young scientists and promote interdisciplinary collaborations in areas related to Climate, Hydrology, Ecology and Agriculture. The IAI, with a similar agenda, was a natural partner to develop this Summer School, which in turn benefited from Itaipu s interest in relating with the scientific community of neighboring countries. The choice of location (Itaip Technological Park) was made so that participants could relate research usually done at academic institutions to applications and operations at one of the largest hydropower plants in the world. The school was attended by 45 advanced graduate students and young scientists with different backgrounds from seven countries, including less technically advanced ones in the region..

Berbery, Ernesto Hugo↗

The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

Picault, Joel↗

An Ecosystem Simulation Model for Methane Production and Emission from Wetlands

Previous experimental studies suggest that methane emission from wetland is influenced by multiple interactive pathways of gas production and transport through soil and sediment layers to the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to evaluate a new simulation model of methane production and emission in wetland soils that was developed initially to help identify key processes that regulate methanogenesis and net flux of CH4 to the air, but which is designed ultimately for regional simulation using remotely sensed inputs for land cover characteristics. The foundation for these computer simulations is based on a well-documented model (CASA) of ecosystem production and carbon cycling in the terrestrial blaspheme. Modifications to represent flooded wetland soils and anaerobic decomposition include three new sub-models for: (1) layered soil temperature and water table depth (WTD) as a function of daily climate drivers, (2) CH4 production within the anoxic soil layer as a function of WTD and CO2 production under poorly drained conditions, and (3) CH4 gaseous transport pathways (molecular diffusion, ebullition, and plant vascular transport) as a function of WTD and ecosystem type. The model was applied and tested using climate and ecological data to characterize tundra wetland sites near Fairbanks, Alaska studied previously by Whalen and Reeburgh. Comparison of model predictions to measurements of soil temperature and thaw depth, water-table depth, and CH4 emissions over a two year period suggest that inter-site differences in soil physical conditions and methane fluxes could be reproduced accurately for selected periods. Day-to-day comparison of predicted emissions to measured CH4 flux rates reveals good agreement during the early part of the thaw season, but the model tends to underestimate production of CH4 during the months of July and August in both test years. Important seasonal effects, including that of falling WTD during these periods, are apparently overlooked in the model formulation. Nevertheless, reasonably close agreement was achieved between the model's mean daily and seasonal estimates of CH4 flux and observed emission rates for northern wetland ecosystems. Several features of the model are identified as crucial to more accurate prediction of wetland methane emission, including the capacity to incorporate influences of localized topographic and hydrologic features on site-specific soil temperature and WTD dynamics, and mechanistic simulation of methane emission transport pathways from within the soil profile.

Potter, C. S.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, December 2006

Topic include: Inferring Gear Damage from Oil-Debris and Vibration Data; Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs; User Interactive Software for Analysis of Human Physiological Data; Representation of Serendipitous Scientific Data; Automatic Locking of Laser Frequency to an Absorption Peak; Self-Passivating Lithium/Solid Electrolyte/Iodine Cells; Four-Quadrant Analog Multipliers Using G4-FETs; Noise Source for Calibrating a Microwave Polarimeter; Hybrid Deployable Foam Antennas and Reflectors; Coating MCPs with AlN and GaN; Domed, 40-cm-Diameter Ion Optics for an Ion Thruster; Gesture-Controlled Interfaces for Self-Service Machines; Dynamically Alterable Arrays of Polymorphic Data Types; Identifying Trends in Deep Space Network Monitor Data; Predicting Lifetime of a Thermomechanically Loaded Component; Partial Automation of Requirements Tracing; Automated Synthesis of Architecture of Avionic Systems; SSRL Emergency Response Shore Tool; Wholly Aromatic Ether-Imides as n-Type Semiconductors; Carbon-Nanotube-Carpet Heat-Transfer Pads; Pulse-Flow Microencapsulation System; Automated Low-Gravitation Facility Would Make Optical Fibers; Alignment Cube with One Diffractive Face; Graphite Composite Booms with Integral Hinges; Tool for Sampling Permafrost on a Remote Planet; and Special Semaphore Scheme for UHF Spacecraft Communications.

Source record↗

Building Climate Resilience at NASA Ames

NASA Ames Research Center, located at the southern end of the San Francisco Bay (SFB) estuary has identified three primary vulnerabilities to changes in climate. The Ames Climate Adaptation Science Investigator (CASI) workgroup has studied each of these challenges to operations and the potential exposure of infrastructure and employees to an increased frequency of hazards. Sea level rise inundation scenarios for the SFB Area generally refer to projected scenarios in mean sea level rather than changes in extreme tides that could occur during future storm conditions. In the Summer of 2014, high resolution 3-D mapping of the low lying portion of Ames was performed. Those data are integrated with improved sea level inundation scenarios to identify the buildings, basements and drainage systems potentially affected. We will also identify the impacts of sea level and storm surge effects on transportation to and from the Center. This information will help Center Management develop future Master Plans. Climate change will also lead to changes in temperature, storm frequency and intensity. These changes have potential impacts on localized floods and ecosystems, as well as on electricity and water availability. Over the coming decades, these changes are going to be imposed on top of ongoing land use and land cover changes, especially those deriving from continued urbanization and increase in impervious surface areas. These coupled changes have the potential to create a series of cascading impacts on ecosystems, including changes in primary productivity and disturbance of hydrological properties and increased flood risk.The majority of the electricity used at Ames is supplied by hydroelectric dams, which will be influenced by reductions in precipitation or changes in the timing or phase of precipitation which reduces snow pack. Coupled with increased demand for summertime air conditioning and other cooling needs, NASA Ames is at risk for electricity shortfalls. To assess the anticipated energy usage as climate changes, the Ames CASI team is collecting historical energy usage data from Ames facilities, historical weather data, and projected future weather parameters from the CASI Climate subgroup. This data will be incorporated into the RETScreen model to predict how energy usage at Ames will change over the coming century.

climate↗

Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Environment

Over the past two years, scientists in the Earth Science Office at NASA fs Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have explored opportunities to apply cloud computing concepts to support near real ]time weather forecast modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Collaborators at NASA fs Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the SERVIR project at Marshall Space Flight Center have established a framework that provides high resolution, daily weather forecasts over Mesoamerica through use of the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at Ames Research Center. Supported by experts at Ames, staff at SPoRT and SERVIR have established daily forecasts complete with web graphics and a user interface that allows SERVIR partners access to high resolution depictions of weather in the next 48 hours, useful for monitoring and mitigating meteorological hazards such as thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, and tropical weather that can lead to other disasters such as flooding and landslides. This presentation will describe the framework for establishing and providing WRF forecasts, example applications of output provided via the SERVIR web portal, and early results of forecast model verification against available surface ] and satellite ]based observations.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Recent Changes in High-Latitude Glaciers, Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets

The glaciers and ice sheets of the world contain enough ice to raise sea level by approximately 70 meters if they were to disappear entirely, and most of this ice is located in the climatically sensitive polar regions. Fortunately changes of this magnitude would probably take many thousands of years to occur, but recent discoveries indicate that these ice masses are responding to changes in today s climate more rapidly than previously thought. These responses are likely to be of great societal significance, primarily in terms of their implications for sea level, but also in terms of how their discharge of freshwater, through melting or calving, may impact ocean circulation. For millions of years, oceans have risen and fallen as the Earth has warmed and cooled, and ice on land has shrunk and grown. Today is no different in that respect, as sea levels have been rising at a rate of nearly 2 m per year during the last century (Miller and Douglas 2004), and 3 mm/yr in the last 12 years (Leuliette et al. 2004). What is different today, however, is that tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions of people live in coastal areas that are vulnerable to changes in sea level. Rising seas erode beaches, increase flood potential, and reduce the ability of barrier islands and coastal wetlands to mitigate the effects of major storms and hurricanes. The costs associated with a one-meter rise in sea level are estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars in the United States alone. The worldwide costs in human terms would be far greater as some vulnerable low-lying coastal regions would become inundated, especially in poorer nations that do not have the resources to deal with such changes. Such considerations are particularly important in light of the fact that a one meter sea level rise is not significantly outside the 0.09 to 0.88 range of predictions for this century (IPCC 2001), and rises of this magnitude have occurred in the past in as little as 20 years (Fairbanks 1989). While the expansion of the warming oceans is estimated to be about a third of recent sea level rise, (Miller and Douglas 2004) the greatest potential for significantly increasing sea level lies in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. For different reasons, each exhibits characteristics that suggest they are potentially unstable. In Antarctica, large portions of the ice cover rest on a soft bed that lies below sea level, making it vulnerable to runaway retreat. The Greenland ice sheet experiences considerable melt, which has the potential to rapidly accelerate the flow of ice toward the sea. While smaller ice masses, such as the Alaskan Glaciers and the Canadian ice caps, do not have anywhere near the same potential to impact sea level as the vast ice sheets do, many are melting rapidly, posing a significant near-term threat.

Abdalati, Waleed↗

The Land Surface Data Toolkit (LDT v7.2) - A Data Fusion Environment for Land Data Assimilation Systems

The effective applications of land surface models (LSMs) and hydrologic models pose a varied set of data input and processing needs, ranging from ensuring consistency checks to more derived data processing and analytics. This article describes the development of the Land surface Data Toolkit (LDT), which is an integrated framework designed specifically for processing input data to execute LSMs and hydrological models. LDT not only serves as a preprocessor to the NASA Land Information System (LIS), which is an integrated framework designed for multi-model LSM simulations and data assimilation (DA) integrations, but also as a land-surface-based observation and DA input processor. It offers a variety of user options and inputs to processing datasets for use within LIS and stand-alone models. The LDT design facilitates the use of common data formats and conventions. LDT is also capable of processing LSM initial conditions and meteorological boundary conditions and ensuring data quality for inputs to LSMs and DA routines. The machine learning layer in LDT facilitates the use of modern data science algorithms for developing data-driven predictive models. Through the use of an object-oriented framework design, LDT provides extensible features for the continued development of support for different types of observational datasets and data analytics algorithms to aid land surface modeling and data assimilation.

droughts and floods↗

A GIS approach to conducting biogeochemical research in wetlands

A project was initiated to develop an environmental data base to address spatial aspects of both biogeochemical cycling and resource management in wetlands. Specific goals are to make regional methane flux estimates and site specific water level predictions based on man controlled water releases within a wetland study area. The project will contribute to the understanding of the Earth's biosphere through its examination of the spatial variability of methane emissions. Although wetlands are thought to be one of the primary sources for release of methane to the atmosphere, little is known about the spatial variability of methane flux. Only through a spatial analysis of methane flux rates and the environmental factors which influence such rates can reliable regional and global methane emissions be calculated. Data will be correlated and studied from Landsat 4 instruments, from a ground survey of water level recorders, precipitation recorders, evaporation pans, and supplemental gauges, and from flood gate water release; and regional methane flux estimates will be made.

Brannon, David P.↗

Geology and landscape evolution of the Hellas region of Mars

Hellas basin on Mars has been the site of volcanism, tectonism, and modification by fluvial, mass-wasting, and eolian processes over its more than 4-b.y. existence. Our detailed geologic mapping and related studies have resulted in the following new interpretations. The asymmetric distribution of highland massifs and other structures that define the uplifted basin rim suggest a formation of the basin by the impact of a low-angle bolide having a trajectory heading S60E. During the Late Noachian, the basin was infilled, perhaps by lava flows, that were sufficiently thick (greater than 1 km) to produce wrinkle ridges on the fill material and extensional faulting along the west rim of the basin. At about the same time, deposits buried northern Malea Planum, which are interpreted to be pyroclastic flows from Amphitrites and Peneus Paterae on the basis of their degraded morphology, topology, and the application of a previous model for pyroclastic volcanism on Mars. Peneus forms a distinctive caldera structure that indicates eruption of massive volumes of magma, whereas Amphitrites is a less distinct circular feature surrounded by a broad, low, dissected shield that suggests generally smaller volume eruptions. During the Early Hesperian, an approximately 1-to 2km-thick sequence of primarily fined-grained, eolian material was deposited on the floor of Hellas basin. Subsequently, the deposit was deeply eroded, except where armored by crater ejecta, and it retreated as much as 200-300 km along its western margin, leaving behind pedestal craters and knobby outliers of the deposit. Local debris flows within the deposit attest to concentrations of groundwater, perhaps in part brought in by outflow floods along the east rim of the basin. These floods may have deposited approximately 100-200m of sediment, subduing wrinkle ridges in the eastern part of the basin floor. During the Late Hesperian and Amazonian, eolian mantles were emplaced on the basin rim and floor and surrounding highlands. Their subsequent erosion resulted in pitted and etched plains and crater fill, irregular mesas, and pedestal craters. Local evidence occurs for the possible former presence of ground ice or ice sheets approximately 100 km across; however, we disagree with a hypothesis that suggest that the entire south rim and much of the floor of Hellas have been glaciated. Orientations of dune fields and yardangs in lower parts of Hellas basin follow directions of the strongest winds predicted by a recently published general circulation model (GCM). Transient frost and dust splotches in the region are, by contrast, related to the GCM prediction for the season in which the images they appear in were taken.

Tanaka, Kenneth L.↗

Geology and landscape evolution of the Hellas region of Mars

Hellas basin on Mars has been the site of volcanism, tectonism, and modification by fluvial, mass-wasting, and eolian processes over its more than 4-b.y. existence. Our detailed geologic mapping and related studies have resulted in the following new interpretations. The asymmetric distribution of highland massifs and other structures that define the uplifted basin rim suggest a formation of the basin by the impact of a low-angle bolide having a trajectory heading S 60 deg E. During the Late Noachian, the basin was infilled, perhaps by lava flows, that were sufficiently thick (>1 km) to produce wrinkle ridges on the fill material and extensional faulting along the west rim of the basin. At about the same time, deposits buried northern Malea Planum, which are interpreted to be pyroclastic flows from Amphitrites and Peneus Paterae on the basis of their degraded morphology, topography, and the application of a previous model for pyroclastic volcanism on Mars. Peneus forms a distinctive caldera structure that indicates eruption of massive volumes of magma, whereas Amphitrites is a less distinct circular feature surrounded by a broad, low, dissected shield that suggests generally smaller volume eruptions. During the Early Hesperian, an approx. 1- to 2-km-thick sequence of primarily fined-grained, eolian material was deposited on the floor of Hellas basin. Subsequently, the deposit was deeply eroded, except where armored by crater ejecta, and it retreated as much as 200-300 km along its western margin, leaving behind pedestal craters and knobby outliers of the deposit. Local debris flows within the deposit attest to concentrations of groundwater, perhaps in part brought in by outflow floods along the east rim of the basin. These floods may have deposited approx. 100-200 m of sediment, subduing wrinkle ridges in the eastern part of the basin floor. During the Late Hesperian and Amazonian, eolian mantles were emplaced on the basin rim and floor and surrounding highlands. Their subsequent erosion resulted in pitted and etched plains and crater fill, irregular mesas, and pedestal craters. Local evidence occurs for the possible former presence of ground ice or ice sheets approx. 100 km across; however, we disagree with a hypothesis that suggests that the entire south rim and much of the floor of Hellas have been glaciated. Orientations of dune fields and yardangs in lower parts of Hellas basin follow directions of the strongest winds predicted by a recently published general circulation model (GCM). Transient frost and dust splotches in the region are, by contrast, related to the GCM prediction for the season in which the images they appear in were taken.

Tanaka, Kenneth L.↗

Comparative modeling of InP solar cell structures

The comparative modeling of p(+)n and n(+)p indium phosphide solar cell structures is studied using a numerical program PC-1D. The optimal design study has predicted that the p(+)n structure offers improved cell efficiencies as compared to n(+)p structure, due to higher open-circuit voltage. The various cell material and process parameters to achieve the maximum cell efficiencies are reported. The effect of some of the cell parameters on InP cell I-V characteristics was studied. The available radiation resistance data on n(+)p and p(+)p InP solar cells are also critically discussed.

Jain, R. K.↗

Monolithic and mechanical multijunction space solar cells

Monolithic and mechanically stacked tandem solar cells have been fabricated with encouraging AM0 efficiencies summarized as: monolithic GaAs/Ge: 19.1 percent (28 C, 4 sq cm); monolithic InP/Ga0.47In0.53As: 22.2 percent (25 C, 0.296 sq cm); monolithic AlGaAs/GaAs/InGaAs: 27.6 percent (80 C, 0.2 sq cm, 100 X); mechanically stacked GaAs/GaSb: 30.8 percent (25 C, 0.049 sq cm, 100 X); and mechanically stacked GaAs/CuInSe2: 23.1 percent (25 C, 4 sq cm). Significant improvement in tandem cell efficiencies nearing to theoretical predictions has been projected with the improvement in cell material quality and processing. Thin-film cells offer improved specific power. It is pointed out that both the monolithic and mechanically stacked cells have their own problems as to size, processing, current-voltage matching, weight, etc. More information is needed on the effect of temperature and radiation on the cell performance. Proper reference cells and full spectrum range simulators are required to measure efficiencies correctly.

Jain, Raj K.↗

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

Case. Jonathan↗

A Satellite Data-Driven, Client-Server Decision Support Application for Agricultural Water Resources Management

Water cycle extremes such as droughts and floods present a challenge for water managers and for policy makers responsible for the administration of water supplies in agricultural regions. In addition to the inherent uncertainties associated with forecasting extreme weather events, water planners need to anticipate water demands and water user behavior in a typical circumstances. This requires the use decision support systems capable of simulating agricultural water demand with the latest available data. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. In previous work we have demonstrated novel methodologies to use satellite-based observational technologies, in conjunction with hydro-economic models and state of the art data assimilation methods, to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and land allocation. These methods create an opportunity for new, cost-effective analysis tools to support policy and decision-making over large spatial extents. The methods can be driven with information from existing satellite-derived operational products, such as the Satellite Irrigation Management Support system (SIMS) operational over California, the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and using a modified light-use efficiency algorithm to retrieve crop yield from the synergistic use of MODIS and Landsat imagery. Here we present an integration of this modeling framework in a client-server architecture based on the Hydra platform. Assimilation and processing of resource intensive remote sensing data, as well as hydrologic and other ancillary information occur on the server side. This information is processed and summarized as attributes in water demand nodes that are part of a vector description of the water distribution network. With this architecture, our decision support system becomes a light weight 'app' that connects to the server to retrieve the latest information regarding water demands, land use, yields and hydrologic information required to run different management scenarios. Furthermore, this architecture ensures all agencies and teams involved in water management use the same, up-to-date information in their simulations.

Agricultural↗