Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Extreme indices”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

Nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency in buildings: A case study of a nursing home

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. In this work, we conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

J1046+4047: an extremely low-metallicity dwarf star-forming galaxy with O32 = 57

ABSTRACT Using the optical spectrum obtained with the Kitt Peak Ohio State Multi-Object Spectrograph mounted on the Apache Point Observatory 3.5 m Telescope and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectrum, we study the properties of one of the most metal-poor dwarf star-forming galaxies (SFGs) in the local Universe, J1046+4047. The galaxy, with a redshift z = 0.04874, was selected from the Data Release 16 of the SDSS. Its properties are among the most extreme for SFGs in several ways. The oxygen abundance 12 + log(O/H) = 7.082 ± 0.016 in J1046+4047 is among the lowest ever observed. With an absolute magnitude Mg = −16.51 mag, a low stellar mass M⋆ = 1.8 × 106 M⊙, and a very low mass-to-light ratio M⋆/Lg ∼ 0.0029 (in solar units), J1046+4047 has a very high specific star formation rate sSFR ∼ 430 Gyr−1, indicating very active ongoing star formation. Another striking feature of J1046+4047 is that it possesses a ratio O32 = I([O iii] λ5007)/I([O ii] λ3727) ∼ 57. Using this extremely high O32, we have confirmed and improved the strong-line calibration for the determination of oxygen abundances in the most metal-deficient galaxies, in the range 12 + log(O/H) ≲ 7.65. This improved method is applicable for all galaxies with O32 ≤ 60. We find the H α emission line in J1046+4047 to be enhanced by some non-recombination processes and thus cannot be used for the determination of interstellar extinction.

Izotov, Y. I. (ORCID:0000000214166082)↗

Experimental Constraints on Solid Nitride Phases in Rocky Mantles of Reduced Planets and Implications for Observable Atmosphere Compositions

Abstract Astronomical surveys have discovered thousands of transiting exoplanets, revealing that rocky planets are common in the galaxy. A planet's interior chemistry is frequently inferred by average density, described by mass‐radius (M‐R) relationships. However, M‐R relationships give rise to non‐unique interpretations of a planet's interior composition, an issue that limits our ability to characterize far‐away worlds. We present experimental and density functional theoretical results addressing the influence of an ultra‐reducing (oxygen‐poor) interior chemistry on rocky mantle phases and discuss the possible implications for atmospheric observables. We show that silicon carbide (SiC) and molecular nitrogen (N 2 ) react to form solid silicon nitride (γ‐Si 3 N 4 ) at high pressures and high temperatures in a laser‐heated diamond‐anvil cell, consistent with ab initio computations. Si 3 N 4 remains stable under extreme conditions and when quenched to ambient conditions. As SiC is a common compound found under very reducing conditions, these results indicate that nitrogen may form solid phases in an oxygen‐poor rocky planet. If, by sequestering nitrogen in a planet's mantle, the distribution of nitrogen between a planet's interior and atmosphere is altered (i.e., a nitrogen‐rich mantle and nitrogen‐poor atmosphere), these results indicate that there may be atmospheric observables connected to the mantle‐redox state of a rocky planet besides the oxygen‐containing phases ubiquitous in exoplanet literature.

Daviau, Kierstin↗

Possible quadrupole-order-driven commensurate-incommensurate phase transition in B20 CoGe

For this study, the B20-type cobalt germanide CoGe was investigated by measuring the specific heat, resistivity, and 59 Co nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). We observed a phase transition at T Q = 13.7 K, evidenced by a very narrow peak of the specific heat and sharp changes of the nuclear spin-spin (T 2 –1 ) and spin-lattice ( T 1 – 1 ) relaxation rates. The fact that the entropy release is extremely small and the Knight shift is almost independent of temperature down to low temperatures as anticipated in a paramagnetic metal indicates that the T Q transition is of nonmagnetic origin. In addition, we detected a crossover scale T 0 ~ 30 K below which the resistivity and the NMR linewidth increase, and T 1 –1 is progressively distributed in space, that is, a static and dynamical spatial inhomogeneity develops. While the order parameter for the T Q transition remains an open question, a group-theoretical analysis suggests that the finite electric quadrupole density arising from the low local site symmetry at cobalt sites could drive the crystal symmetry lowering from the P2 1 3 symmetry that is commensurate to the R3 symmetry with an incommensurate wave vector, which fairly well accounts for the T Q transition. The quadrupole-order-driven commensurate-incommensurate phase transition may be another remarkable phenomenon arising from the structural chirality inherent in the noncentrosymmetric B20 family.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Trust Your Gut: Comparing Human and Machine Inference from Noisy Visualizations

People commonly utilize visualizations not only to examine a given dataset, but also to draw generalizable conclusions about the underlying models or phenomena. Prior research has compared human visual inference to that of an optimal Bayesian agent, with deviations from rational analysis viewed as problematic. However, human reliance on non-normative heuristics may prove advantageous in certain circumstances. We investigate scenarios where human intuition might surpass idealized statistical rationality. In two experiments, we examine individuals’ accuracy in characterizing the parameters of known data-generating models from bivariate visualizations. Our findings indicate that, although participants generally exhibited lower accuracy compared to statistical models, they frequently outperformed Bayesian agents, particularly when faced with extreme samples. Participants appeared to rely on their internal models to filter out noisy visualizations, thus improving their resilience against spurious data. However, participants displayed overconfidence and struggled with uncertainty estimation. They also exhibited higher variance than statistical machines. Our findings suggest that analyst gut reactions to visualizations may provide an advantage, even when departing from rationality. These results carry implications for designing visual analytics tools, offering new perspectives on how to integrate statistical models and analyst intuition for improved inference and decision-making. The data and materials for this paper are available at https://osf.io/qmfv6

human-machine collaboration↗

Evaluation of Adaptive Volt-VAR to Mitigate PV Impacts [Slides]

Distributed generation (DG) sources like photovoltaic (PV) systems with advanced inverters are able to perform grid-support functions, like autonomous Volt-VAR that attempts to mitigate voltage issues by injecting or consuming reactive power. However, the Volt-VAR function operates with VAR priority, meaning real power may be curtailed to provide additional reactive power support. Since some locations on the grid may be more prone to higher voltages than others, PV systems installed at those locations may be forced to curtail more power, adversely impacting the value of that PV system. Adaptive Volt-VAR (AVV) could be implemented as an alternative, whereby the Volt-VAR reference voltage changes over time, but this functionality has not been well-explored in the literature. In this work, the potential benefits and grid impacts of AVV were investigated using yearlong quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations. After testing a variety of allowable AVV settings, we found that even with aggressive settings AVV resulted in <0.01% real power curtailment and significantly reduced the reactive power support required from the PV inverter compared to conventional Volt-VAR but did not provide much mitigation for extreme voltage conditions. The reactive power support provided by AVV was injected to oppose large deviations in voltage (in either direction), indicating that it could be useful for other applications like reducing voltage flicker or minimizing interactions with other voltage regulating devices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Performance of Convection-Permitting and Convection-Parameterized Models in Reproducing the Extreme Precipitation Intensity Relationship with Surface Conditions

Here, this study investigates the warm-season extreme precipitation–temperature scaling relationship in CONUS404, a convection-permitting (4 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation over the conterminous United States for the past four decades, and compares it with the WRF-Thermodynamic Global Warming (WRF-TGW) historical simulation at a coarser resolution (12 km) using parameterized convection. We also analyze the NCEP stage IV and NASA Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) datasets as observational benchmarks. We examine how extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) varies with temperature and saturation deficit over representative regions based on hourly data. The stage IV and IMERG data show a similar pattern of EPI variation with temperature and saturation deficit, except that the EPI peak is lower in IMERG than in stage IV. Under dry and hot conditions, EPI decreases too rapidly with elevated saturation deficit in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW compared to observations, but the performance of CONUS404 is superior to WRF-TGW. When the near-surface atmosphere is saturated or close to saturated, both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW produce higher peak values of EPI relative to the observational references; IMERG exhibits scaling rates close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship, while CONUS404, WRF-TGW, and stage IV all demonstrate super-C–C scaling behaviors. Despite marked warming over the past four decades, in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW, the scaling relationship between EPI and temperature in a saturated atmosphere remains stable and robust. This indicates a strong potential for the EPI–temperature scaling rate under saturation to be used as an emergent constraint in reducing uncertainties of future extreme precipitation projection.

Atmosphere↗

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation–Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this study, we investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by (a) a control experiment with the present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, (b) P4K, the same as in (a) but with a uniform increase of 4K in the SST globally, and (c) the same as in (a), but with an imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from the outputs of the coupled E3SM forced by a 4xCO 2 concentration. We found that as the surface warmed under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increased. Importantly, there was an increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of the precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than the ocean, and more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation was facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in the vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating, and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation–cloud–circulation organization from the control and P4K to 4xCO 2 . The results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, that is, P4K, was the primary cause contributing to an organization structure resembling the well-known mesoscale convective system (MCS), with increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplified the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increases in the surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 was the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, a fast and large increase in the land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture resulted in a strong reduction in the land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, and more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, that is, the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when it eventually occurs, due to the release of a large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires

Here we report in the spring 2021, Nepal underwent a record wildfire season in which active fires were detected at a rate 10 times greater than the 2002–2020 average. Prior to these major wildfire events, the country experienced a prolonged precipitation deficit and extreme drought during the post-monsoon period (starting in October 2020). An analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that both climate variability and climate change-induced severe drought conditions were at play. Further analysis of climate model outputs suggests the likely reoccurrence of drought conditions, thus favoring active wildfire seasons in Nepal throughout the twenty-first century. While the inter-model uncertainty is large and direct modeling of wildfire spread and suppression has not been completed, the demonstrated relationship between a drought index (the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index) and subsequent fire activity may offer actionable opportunities for forest managers to employ the monitoring and projection of climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales to inform their management strategies for Nepal’s wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heterogeneous catalysis: Optimal performance at a phase boundary?

Most of the industrially used heterogeneous catalysts have been discovered by trial and error, and despite decades of experience, the discovery of new catalysts continues to be extremely challenging. The drive to uncover guiding principles in catalyst design is more present than ever. We share a series of observations indicating that optimal catalysts typically function at characteristic phase boundaries (e.g., abrupt changes in adsorbate coverage, catalyst structure, etc.) accessed in the reaction conditions. The catalyst exploits the associated instability—the desire to exist in multiple states simultaneously—as a driving force for chemical transformations. In other words, phase boundaries are good places to start the catalyst search, and indeed, we should focus on at least two phases at once rather than just one. Here, we substantiate this claim with several studies that combine statistical operando modeling and experiments. Transpiring from these observations is a hitherto unrecognized vector in catalyst discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effects of Dissolution Regimes on Flow Channelization and Solute Transport in 3D Fracture Networks: Insights From Graph‐Based Reactive Transport Modeling

We investigate how mineral dissolution reshapes flow pathways and solute transport in three‐dimensional discrete fracture networks using a computationally efficient graph‐based reactive transport model. The DFNs are inspired by field‐site observations of fractured carbonate and represent realistic connectivity and structural heterogeneity. Flow is simulated with the Reynolds equation, and dissolution follows first‐order kinetics with diffusive limitations captured through an effective mass‐transfer coefficient. By systematically varying two key dimensionless parameters, the effective Damköhler number (Da), governing reaction versus advection rates, and a transport parameter (Da), analogous to the Thiele modulus, distinct flow channelization regimes emerge: mildly channelized at low G, highly channelized at intermediate Da, and extreme wormhole formation at high Da and low G. Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses, including breakthrough curves, particle tortuosity, dispersivity, and flow channeling indicators quantitatively characterize the progression of dissolution‐driven network restructuring. Across all regimes, initial fracture heterogeneity persists. The results underscore how the interplay between this initial structure, advection, reaction, and diffusion critically shapes subsurface flow pathways, with implications for applications ranging from groundwater remediation to enhanced geothermal systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How galaxies populate halos in extreme density environments: An analysis of the halo occupation distribution in SDSS

Recent works have shown that the properties of galaxy populations in simulated dark matter halos vary with large-scale environments. These results suggest a variation in the halo occupation distribution (HOD) in extreme density environments since the dynamical and astrophysical conditions prevailing in these regions may significantly affect the formation and evolution of their halos and residing galaxies, influencing the mean number of satellite galaxies. To analyse these effects, we identify cosmic voids and future virialised structures (FVS) in the Sloan Digital Sky Server Data Release 12 (SDSS-DR12) and estimate the HOD within these super-structures using group catalogues as dark matter halo proxies. Our goal is to use observational galaxy data to characterise the HOD within cosmic voids and FVS, explore the different properties of these galaxies populations and compare them with the general results outside these super-structures. We use a publicly available observational galaxy catalogue with information on redshifts, positions, magnitudes and other astrophysical features to build a volume complete galaxy sample and identify cosmic voids and FVS. Using a publicly available galaxy group catalogue as a proxy to dark matter halos, we compute the HOD within both types of super-structures for different absolute magnitude thresholds. We also study the dependence on the results on the main void and FVS properties, density and volume. We also analysed the main characteristics of the stellar content of galaxies inside these extreme-density regions such as the mean stellar age and the galaxy light concentration index. In all cases, we compare the results with those derived from the Field sample, defined by objects outside both types of environments. Inside cosmic voids, we find a strong decrease in HOD concerning the Field results. In the most extreme cases, the mean number of satellites fall to ~ 50%. Inside FVS, the HOD shows a significant increase to the Field, with a ~ 40% excess in the mean number of satellites. These results are present for the different galaxy luminosity ranges explored. In both environments, the differences with respect to the Field increases for the extreme values of the density environments. However, we obtain no signs of variations related to intrinsic characteristics of the super-structures, indicating that the effects depend mainly on the density of the large-scale environment. In addition, we find that the cumulative distribution of the mean age of stars of the central galaxy also varies in the different regions, this suggests that the history of the formation of the dark matter halos may be different. Finally, we explore the HOD for the 25% youngest (oldest) galaxies, based on the mean age of their stars. We find that for the low-mass groups the youngest galaxies are only present inside voids and are generally central galaxies. On the other hand, for the high-mass groups the FVS environments show the same increase in the HOD concerning the Field as previously mentioned. We find that cosmic voids lack a significant fraction of galaxies with the oldest stellar population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Scenario Generation for Built Environment Decision Support under Uncertainty: Case Studies of Airflow Modeling and Climate-Resilient Infrastructure System Design

When confronted with unforeseen challenges, practicing informed decision making is crucial for enhancing resilience in the built environment. While scan-to-building information modeling (BIM) is a well-established approach for creating detailed digital representations of physical assets, its application in assessing and improving infrastructure resilience remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel application of scan-to-BIM, namely, scan-to-BIM-to-digital twin (S-BIM-DT) workflow. By integrating reality capture and digital twin technologies, this workflow creates continuously updated and accurate digital representations of physical assets, enabling the generation of various scenarios. Unlike traditional methods, the S BIM-DT workflow facilitates continuous model refinement, supporting informed resilience strategies. By combining these technologies into a cohesive process, the workflow facilitates decision making under uncertainty, enabling stakeholders to evaluate and respond to various scenarios effectively. We demonstrate the implementation of the S-BIM-DT workflow through two use cases that highlight its capability to enhance resilience at different scales. The first use case involves the Combined Transportation, Emergency, and Communications Center (CTECC) in Austin, Texas. BIM-enriched computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling simulates airflow and develops alternative scenarios for optimizing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. This approach enhances resilience against airborne health threats in a postCOVID context. The second use case focuses on designated areas within Beaumont, Texas, as part of the Southeast Texas Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (SETx-UIFL) research. By developing inundation maps to assess extreme weather events, this modeling aids in preparedness efforts and informs the development of climate-resilient infrastructure in vulnerable neighborhoods. Results indicate that the S-BIM-DT workflow effectively generates scenarios that enhance resilience in the built environment by facilitating informed decision making. Furthermore, this study serves as a bridge between advanced scan-to-BIM methodologies and the practical strategies needed to improve built infrastructure resilience.

Built environment↗

Evaluation of CMIP6 Streamflow in the Arctic

Earth system models (ESMs) serve as the primary basis for projecting future streamflow changes, but they are biased in terms of the their ability to reproduce historical observations of streamflow. Rigorous downscaling and bias-correction procedures, which are time-consuming and introduce uncertainties, are commonly used to address these biases in streamflow or runoff. However, the applicable limits of streamflow projections remain largely untested through direct comparisons with observations. In this work, we compare historical streamflow time series observations with a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ESMs to assess the space and time scales at which each ESM represents historic streamflow observations. We focus our analysis on streamflow across the Arctic given the higher degree of warming experienced over this region, underscoring its importance for understanding the future changes. A series of metrics—volume, seasonality, extreme capturing streamflow variability, drought, and flooding is tested to assess ESM simulation skill for total events and overall distributions. Our results indicate that although improvements are necessary in ESM runoff and streamflow projections, the use of temporal averaging and targeting the best-fit model for comparison to observations when a suite of ESMs is considered can provide robust streamflow projections. Moreover, this work provides a basis for contextualizing the limits of ESM applicability for studies aiming to assess streamflow in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evidence that Ultra-high-energy Gamma Rays Are a Universal Feature near Powerful Pulsars

The highest-energy known gamma-ray sources are all located within 0°5 of extremely powerful pulsars. This raises the question of whether ultra-high-energy (UHE; >56 TeV) gamma-ray emission is a universal feature expected near pulsars with a high spin-down power. Using four years of data from the High Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma-Ray Observatory, we present a joint-likelihood analysis of 10 extremely powerful pulsars to search for subthreshold UHE gamma-ray emission correlated with these locations. We report a significant detection (>3σ), indicating that UHE gamma-ray emission is a generic feature of powerful pulsars. Finally, we discuss the emission mechanisms of the gamma rays and the implications of this result. The individual environment, such as the magnetic field and particle density in the surrounding area, appears to play a role in the amount of emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Understanding the Nature of an Unusual Post-starburst Quasar with Exceptionally Strong Ne v Emission

We present a z = 0.94 quasar, SDSS J004846.45-004611.9, discovered in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey III (SDSS-III) BOSS survey. A visual analysis of this spectrum reveals highly broadened and blueshifted narrow emission lines, in particular, [Ne v] λ3426 and [O III ] λ5007, with outflow velocities of 4000 km s -1 , along with unusually large [Ne v] λ3426/[Ne III ] λ3869 ratios. The gas shows higher ionization at higher outflow velocities, indicating a connection between the powerful outflow and the unusual strength of the high ionization lines. The spectral energy distribution and the i – W3 color of the source reveal that it is likely a core extremely red quasar (ERQ); a candidate population of young active galactic nuclei (AGN) that are violently blowing out gas and dust from their centers. The dominance of host galaxy light in its spectrum and its fortuitous position in the SDSS S82 region allows us to measure its star formation history and investigate variability for the first time in an ERQ. Our analysis indicates that SDSS J004846.45-004611.9 underwent a short-lived starburst phase 400 Myr ago and was subsequently quenched, possibly indicating a time lag between star formation quenching and the onset of AGN activity. We also find that the strong extinction can be uniquely attributed to the AGN and does not persist in the host galaxy, contradicting a scenario where the source has recently transitioned from being a dusty submillimeter galaxy. In our relatively shallow photometric data, the source does not appear to be variable at 0.24–2.4 μm in the rest frame, most likely due to the dominant contribution of host galaxy starlight at these wavelengths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Climate Dynamics Preceding Summer Forest Fires in California and the Extreme Case of 2018

Recent record-breaking wildfire seasons in California prompt an investigation into the climate patterns that typically precede anomalous summer burned forest area. Using burned-area data from the U.S. Forest Service’s Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) product and climate data from the fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) over 1984–2018, relationships between the interannual variability of antecedent climate anomalies and July California burned area are spatially and temporally characterized. Lag correlations show that antecedent high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), high temperatures, frequent extreme high temperature days, low precipitation, high subsidence, high geopotential height, low soil moisture, and low snowpack and snowmelt anomalies all correlate significantly with July California burned area as far back as the January before the fire season. Seasonal regression maps indicate that a global midlatitude atmospheric wave train in late winter is associated with anomalous July California burned area. July 2018, a year with especially high burned area, was to some extent consistent with the general patterns revealed by the regressions: low winter precipitation and high spring VPD preceded the extreme burned area. However, geopotential height anomaly patterns were distinct from those in the regressions. Extreme July heat likely contributed to the extent of the fires ignited that month, even though extreme July temperatures do not historically significantly correlate with July burned area. While the 2018 antecedent climate conditions were typical of a high-burned-area year, they were not extreme, demonstrating the likely limits of statistical prediction of extreme fire seasons and the need for individual case studies of extreme years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Staphylococcus aureus vWF-binding protein triggers a strong interaction between clumping factor A and host vWF

The Staphylococcus aureus cell wall-anchored adhesin ClfA binds to the very large blood circulating protein, von Willebrand factor (vWF) via vWF-binding protein (vWbp), a secreted protein that does not bind the cell wall covalently. Here we perform force spectroscopy studies on living bacteria to unravel the molecular mechanism of this interaction. We discover that the presence of all three binding partners leads to very high binding forces (2000 pN), largely outperforming other known ternary complexes involving adhesins. Strikingly, our experiments indicate that a direct interaction involving features of the dock, lock and latch mechanism must occur between ClfA and vWF to sustain the extreme tensile strength of the ternary complex. Our results support a previously undescribed mechanism whereby vWbp activates a direct, ultra-strong interaction between ClfA and vWF. This intriguing interaction represents a potential target for therapeutic interventions, including synthetic peptides inhibiting the ultra-strong interactions between ClfA and its ligands.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗