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At least 217 records · Page 12

Estimation of Supersonic Stage Separation Aerodynamics of Winged-Body Launch Vehicles Using Response Surface Methods

A collection of statistical and mathematical techniques referred to as response surface methodology was used to estimate the longitudinal stage separation aerodynamic characteristics of a generic, bimese, winged multi-stage launch vehicle configuration using data obtained on small-scale models at supersonic speeds in the NASA Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The simulated Mach 3 staging was dominated by multiple shock wave interactions between the orbiter and booster vehicles throughout the relative spatial locations of interest. This motivated a partitioning of the overall inference space into several contiguous regions within which the separation aerodynamics were presumed to be well-behaved and estimable using cuboidal and spherical central composite designs capable of fitting full second-order response functions. The primary goal was to approximate the underlying overall aerodynamic response surfaces of the booster vehicle in belly-to-belly proximity to the orbiter vehicle using relatively simple, lower-order polynomial functions that were piecewise-continuous across the full independent variable ranges of interest. The quality of fit and prediction capabilities of the empirical models were assessed in detail, and the issue of subspace boundary discontinuities was addressed. The potential benefits of augmenting the central composite designs to full third order using computer-generated D-optimality criteria were also evaluated. The usefulness of central composite designs, the subspace sizing, and the practicality of fitting low-order response functions over a partitioned inference space dominated by highly nonlinear and possibly discontinuous shock-induced aerodynamics are discussed.

Erickson, Gary E.↗

Hubble Space Telescope Images of Nearby Luminous Quasars: Results for Eight Quasars and Tests of the Detection Sensitivity - 2

Observations with the Wide-Field Camera of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) are presented for eight intrinsically luminous quasars with redshifts between 0.16 and 0.29. These observations, when combined with a similar HST study of the quasar PKS 2349-014, show that luminous nearby quasars exist in a variety of environments. Seven companion galaxies brighter than M(V) = 16.5 (H(sub 0) = 100 km s(sup -1) Mpc(sup -1), Omega(sub 0) = 1.0) lie within a projected distance of 25 kpc of the quasars; three of the companions are located closer than 3'' (6 kpc projected distance) from the quasars, well within the volume that would be enclosed by a typical L* host galaxy. The observed association of quasars and companion galaxies is statistically significant and may he an important element in the luminous-quasar phenomenon. Apparent host galaxies are detected for three of the quasars: PG 1116+215, 3C 273, and PG 1444+407; the hosts have an average absolute magnitude of about 0.6 mag brighter than L*. The agreement between the previously published major-axis directions in ground-based images and in the present HST images of 3C 273 and PG 1444+407 constitutes important evidence supporting the reality of these candidate host galaxies. Upper limits are placed on the visual-band brightnesses of representative galactic hosts for all the quasars. These limits are established by placing galaxy images obtained with HST underneath the quasars and measuring at what faintness level the known galaxies are detected. On average, the HST spirals would have been detected if they were as faint as 1 mag below L*, and the early-type galaxies could have been detected down to a brightness level of about L*, where L* is the Schechter characteristic luminosity of field galaxies. Smooth, featureless galaxy models (exponential disks or de Vaucouleurs profiles) are fitted to the residual light after a best-fitting point source is subtracted from the quasar images. The results show that smooth spiral galaxies brighter than, on average, about L*, would have been detected. These upper limits, or possible detections, are consistent with, for example, the eight luminous quasars studied in this paper, occurring in host galaxies that have a Shechter luminosity function with a lower cutoff in the range 0.01-0.1 L*. Tests are performed to determine if our failure to detect, in some cases, luminous host galaxies could be an artifact caused by our analysis procedures. These tests include comparing the measured point-spread function (PSF) for our HST observations with the PSFs used in previous ground-based studies of host galaxies, measuring the fluctuations in the sky signals that were subtracted from the quasar images, evaluating empirically the effects of using different stellar PSFs in the analysis, carrying out the subtraction of the stellar (nuclear) source in different ways, creating and analyzing artificial active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with known surface brightnesses, and fitting the observed quasar light to an analytic model that includes a host galaxy.

Bahcall, John N.↗

Spatially-Explicit Monitoring of Crop Photosynthetic Capacity Through the Use of Space-Based Chlorophyll Fluorescence Data

Plant functional traits such as photosynthetic capacity are critical parameters for terrestrial biosphere models. However, their spatial and temporal characteristics are still poorly represented. In this study, we used satellite observations of sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) to estimate top-of-canopy photosynthetic capacity (maximum carboxylation rate, V(sub cmax) at a reference temperature of 25 deg C) for crops, which was in turn utilized to simulate regional gross primary production (GPP). We first estimate the key parameter, V(sub cmax), in the widely-used FvCB photosynthesis model using field measurements of CO2 and water fluxes during 2007-2012 at seven crop eddy covariance flux sites over the US Corn Belt. The results showed that satellite far-red SIF retrievals have a stronger link to V(sub cmax) at the seasonal scale (R(squared)=0.70 for C4 and R(squared)=0.63 for C3 crop) as compared with widely-used vegetation indices. We calibrate an empirical model linking V(sub cmax) with SIF that was used to estimate spatially and temporally varying crop V(sub cmax) for the US Corn Belt region. The resulting V(sub cmax) maps are used together with meteorological data from MERRA reanalysis data and vegetation structural parameters derived from the satellite- based spectral reflectance data to constrain the Soil-Canopy Observation of Photosynthesis and Energy (SCOPE) balance model in order to estimate regional crop GPP. Our results show a substantial improvement in the seasonal and spatial patterns of cropland GPP when compared with crop yield inventory data. The evaluation with tall tower atmospheric CO2 measurements further supports our estimation of spatiotemporal V(sub cmax) from space-borne SIF. Considering that SIF has a direct link to photosynthetic activity, our findings highlight the potential to infer regional V(sub cmax) using remotely sensed SIF data and to use this information for a better quantification of regional cropland carbon cycles.

Drought↗

An experimental study of light scattering by large, irregular particles

The intensity and polarization of light scattered by a variety of types of artificial partices large compared to the wavelength were measured as a function of phase angle. Shape, surface roughness, absorption coefficient, and internal scattering coefficient were varied systematically and their effects studied. Scattering by clear, smooth-surfaced spheres is in quantitative agreement with the predictions of the geometrical optics (ray theory) approximation to physical optics (Mie theory). The phase functions of almost all of the particles measured have both forward and backward scattering lobes. A two-parameter, double Henyey-Greenstein function generally provides reasonably good descriptions of the data, while keeping the number of free parameters to the minimum necessary. On a double Henyey- Greenstein parameter plot all of the particles fall into an L-shaped area of restricted size in which the location is characteristic of the particle type. Formalisms based on the equivalent slab model are also given for estimating the scattering efficiency of a large, irregular particle. For most dielectric particles the transmitted, forward scattered light is partially negatively polarized. It is this component that is respopnsible for the well-known maximum in the polarization curves of planetary regoliths at phase angles around 100 deg. For phase angles between about 30 deg and 70 deg the internally scattered light is found to be randomly polarized in the particles studied here, so that the only contribution to the second component of the Stokes vector is by Fresnel reflection from the particle surface. If this empirical result is general, measurement of the second Stokes vector of the light scattered from a regolith at these angles may provide a method of remotely measuring the mean refractive index.

Mcguire, Audrey F.↗

A Time-Varying Model for Predicting Formaldehyde Emission Rates in Homes

Recent studies have succeeded in relating emissions of various volatile organic compounds to material mass diffusion transfer using detailed empirical characteristics of each of the individual emitting materials. While significant, the resulting models are often scenario specific and/or require a host of individual component parameters to estimate emission rates. This study developed an approach to estimate aggregated emissions rates based on a wide number of field measurements. We used a multi-parameter regression model based on previous mass transfer models to predict formaldehyde emission rate for a whole dwelling using field-measured, time-resolved formaldehyde concentrations, air exchange rates, and indoor environmental parameters in 63 California single-family houses built between 2011 and 2017. The resulting model provides time-varying formaldehyde emission rates, normalized by floor area, for each study home, assuming a well-mixed mass balance transport model of the home, and a well-mixed layer transport model of indoor surfaces. The surface layer model asserts an equilibrium concentration within the surface layer of the emitted materials that is a function of temperature and RH; the dwelling ventilation rate serves as a surrogate for indoor concentration. We also developed a more generic emission model that is suitable for broad prediction of emission for a population of buildings. This model is also based on measurements aggregated from 27 homes from the same study. We showed that errors in predicting household formaldehyde concentrations using this approach were substantially less than those using a traditional constant emission rate model, despite requiring less unique building information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Effects of Sensor Field-of-View on the Geometrical Characteristics of Sea Ice Leads and Implications for Large-Area Heat Flux Estimates

The release of heat from sea ice fractures ('leads') is an important component of the heat budget in the Arctic, but their impact on regional scale climate is difficult to assess without more information on their distribution in both space and time. Remote sensing of leads using satellite data, specifically AVHRR thermal and Landsat visible-band imagery, is examined empirically with respect to lead width, orientation, and area fraction. The geometrical aspects of the sensor are simulated so that the effect of sensor field-of-view on retrieved lead width statistics can be assessed. This is done using Landsat data and simulated lead networks degraded to AVHRR pixel sizes. The analyses illustrate how leads of sufficiently high contrast tend to 'grow' with increasing pixel size and how small or low contrast leads disappear. The relationship between lead contrast and the width/field-of-view ratio is also examined in order to determine the limits of lead detectability, and illustrates the multivalued nature of the problem of lead width retrieval. To help quantify the importance of changes in lead statistics, turbulent heat flux is calculated as a function of lead width and lead fraction. It is shown that pixel size has a substantial effect on estimates of turbulent heat transfer from leads to the atmosphere.

Key, J.↗

An Observation‐Driven Approach to Improve Vegetation Phenology in a Global Land Surface Model

An empirical model calibration approach is presented that aims to approximate missing biosphere processes in a global land surface model without the need for substantial model structural changes. The strategy is implemented here using the NASA Catchment‐CN land surface model and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR). Existing plant functional types (PFTs) of the Catchment‐CN model are divided into three subtypes, based on the bias between the model‐simulated and MODIS‐observed FPAR. Separate sets of vegetation parameters for each subtype are then calibrated at a small number of grid cells with homogeneous, single‐PFT land cover, using MODIS FPAR reference observations from 2003 to 2009. The effectiveness of the empirical approach at improving the realism of modeled vegetation dynamics is investigated with two global model simulations for the period 2010–2016, one using the newly calibrated parameter values and the other using the original values. Globally, the calibrated parameters reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) of the modeled FPAR with respect to MODIS by 0.029 (∼10%) on average. In some regions, substantially larger RMSE reductions are achieved. RMSE reductions are primarily driven by model bias reductions, with neutral effects on the temporal correlation skill. While the empirical approach is suitable for achieving consistent model improvements, it is shown to be sensitive to the characteristics of the model error, specifically a dominance of the bias component in the case of Catchment‐CN. Ultimately, more fundamental model structural changes may be required to achieve better improvements.

J. Kolassa↗

Integrating Cloud Processes in the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 5.

This paper provides a description on the parameterizations of global cloud system in CAM5. Compared to the previous versions, CAM5 cloud parameterization has the following unique characteristics: (1) a transparent cloud macrophysical structure that has horizontally non-overlapped deep cumulus, shallow cumulus and stratus in each grid layer, each of which has own cloud fraction, mass and number concentrations of cloud liquid droplets and ice crystals, (2) stratus-radiation-turbulence interaction that allows CAM5 to simulate marine stratocumulus solely from grid-mean RH without relying on the stability-based empirical empty stratus, (3) prognostic treatment of the number concentrations of stratus liquid droplets and ice crystals with activated aerosols and detrained in-cumulus condensates as the main sources and evaporation-sedimentation-precipitation of stratus condensate as the main sinks, and (4) radiatively active cumulus. By imposing consistency between diagnosed stratus fraction and prognosed stratus condensate, CAM5 is free from empty or highly-dense stratus at the end of stratus macrophysics. CAM5 also prognoses mass and number concentrations of various aerosol species. Thanks to the aerosol activation and the parameterizations of the radiation and stratiform precipitation production as a function of the droplet size, CAM5 simulates various aerosol indirect effects associated with stratus as well as direct effects, i.e., aerosol controls both the radiative and hydrological budgets. Detailed analysis of various simulations revealed that CAM5 is much better than CAM3/4 in the global performance as well as the physical formulation. However, several problems were also identifed, which can be attributed to inappropriate regional tuning, inconsistency between various physics parameterizations, and incomplete model physics. Continuous efforts are going on to further improve CAM5.

CAM5↗

Next-generation yeast-two-hybrid analysis with Y2H-SCORES identifies novel interactors of the MLA immune receptor

Protein-protein interaction networks are one of the most effective representations of cellular behavior. In order to build these models, high-throughput techniques are required. Next-generation interaction screening (NGIS) protocols that combine yeast two-hybrid (Y2H) with deep sequencing are promising approaches to generate interactome networks in any organism. However, challenges remain to mining reliable information from these screens and thus, limit its broader implementation. Here, we present a computational framework, designated Y2H-SCORES, for analyzing high-throughput Y2H screens. Y2H-SCORES considers key aspects of NGIS experimental design and important characteristics of the resulting data that distinguish it from RNA-seq expression datasets. Three quantitative ranking scores were implemented to identify interacting partners, comprising: 1) significant enrichment under selection for positive interactions, 2) degree of interaction specificity among multi-bait comparisons, and 3) selection of in-frame interactors. Using simulation and an empirical dataset, we provide a quantitative assessment to predict interacting partners under a wide range of experimental scenarios, facilitating independent confirmation by one-to-one bait-prey tests. Simulation of Y2H-NGIS enabled us to identify conditions that maximize detection of true interactors, which can be achieved with protocols such as prey library normalization, maintenance of larger culture volumes and replication of experimental treatments. Y2H-SCORES can be implemented in different yeast-based interaction screenings, with an equivalent or superior performance than existing methods. Proof-of-concept was demonstrated by discovery and validation of novel interactions between the barley nucleotide-binding leucine-rich repeat (NLR) immune receptor MLA6, and fourteen proteins, including those that function in signaling, transcriptional regulation, and intracellular trafficking.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Organo-Modified Clay Addition and Temperature on the Water Vapor Barrier Properties of Polyhydroxy Butyrate Homo and Copolymer Nanocomposite Films for Packaging Applications

Polymer nanocomposites, based on bacterial biodegradable thermoplastic polyester, poly(hydroxy-butyrate) (PHB), poly(hydroxyl-butyrate-co-hydroxy-valerate) (PHBHV), and commercial organo-modified montmorillonite (OMMT-Cloisite 10A) were prepared by solution casting method. This work aims to investigate the effect of Cloisite 10A type clay addition on the water vapour permeability properties of PHB/OMMT, and PHBHV/OMMT nanobiocomposite films. Temperature dependence of water vapor permeabilities of the films were also evaluated at various temperatures, and semi empirical permeability models were used to predict the permeability of polymer systems as a function of clay concentration and aspect ratio of nanoplates. Moreover, thermal, optical, and mechanical properties of the composites were examined by using varieties of techniques including differential scanning calorimeter (DSC), thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA), scanning electron microscope (SEM), and thin-film X-ray diffractometer (TF-XRD) respectively. Test results indicated that addition of highly intergallery swollen Cloisite 10A to the PHB/PHBHV, reduced the water vapor permeability up to 41 and 25% compared to native PHB and PHBHV films, respectively. Regarding the all mechanical properties measured, the maximum improvement was achieved for 3 wt% clay loaded samples for both PHB and PHBHV polymer composites. An increase of about 152 and 73% in tensile strength and of 77 and 18% in strain at break was achieved for PHB and PHBHV polymers, respectively. As a result of X-ray diffraction analysis, exfoliated structure was achieved at low clay loaded sample (1% w/w), however at higher concentration (3% w/w) the structure found as intercalated. Therefore, it is an evident that enhancement of characteristic properties highly depend on the dispersion level of clay particles in polymer matrix. The results obtained in this study show the feasibility of improvement of the properties of PHB based polymers with incorporation of nanoclay.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Optimizing the fine lock performance of the Hubble Space Telescope fine guidance sensors

This paper summarizes the on-orbit performance to date of the three Hubble Space Telescope Fine Guidance Sensors (FGS's) in Fine Lock mode, with respect to acquisition success rate, ability to maintain lock, and star brightness range. The process of optimizing Fine Lock performance, including the reasoning underlying the adjustment of uplink parameters, and the effects of optimization are described. The Fine Lock optimization process has combined theoretical and experimental approaches. Computer models of the FGS have improved understanding of the effects of uplink parameters and fine error averaging on the ability of the FGS to acquire stars and maintain lock. Empirical data have determined the variation of the interferometric error characteristics (so-called 's-curves') between FGS's and over each FGS field of view, identified binary stars, and quantified the systematic error in Coarse Track (the mode preceding Fine Lock). On the basis of these empirical data, the values of the uplink parameters can be selected more precisely. Since launch, optimization efforts have improved FGS Fine Lock performance, particularly acquisition, which now enjoys a nearly 100 percent success rate. More recent work has been directed towards improving FGS tolerance of two conditions that exceed its original design requirements. First, large amplitude spacecraft jitter is induced by solar panel vibrations following day/night transitions. This jitter is generally much greater than the FGS's were designed to track, and while the tracking ability of the FGS's has been shown to exceed design requirements, losses of Fine Lock after day/night transitions are frequent. Computer simulations have demonstrated a potential improvement in Fine Lock tracking of vehicle jitter near terminator crossings. Second, telescope spherical aberration degrades the interferometric error signal in Fine Lock, but use of the FGS two-thirds aperture stop restores the transfer function with a corresponding loss of throughput. This loss requires the minimum brightness of acquired stars to be about one magnitude brighter than originally planned.

Eaton, David J.↗

The evolution of the galaxy rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity function over the first two billion years

We present a robust measurement and analysis of the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) luminosity functions at z = 4–8. We use deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging over the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey/GOODS fields, the Hubble Ultra Deep Field, and the Hubble Frontier Field deep parallel observations near the Abell 2744 and MACS J0416.1-2403 clusters. The combination of these surveys provides an effective volume of 0.6–1.2 × 10{sup 6} Mpc{sup 3} over this epoch, allowing us to perform a robust search for faint (M{sub UV}=−18) and bright (M{sub UV}<−21) high-redshift galaxies. We select candidate galaxies using a well-tested photometric redshift technique with careful screening of contaminants, finding a sample of 7446 candidate galaxies at 3.5 < z < 8.5, with >1000 galaxies at z ≈ 6–8. We measure both a stepwise luminosity function for candidate galaxies in our redshift samples, and a Schechter function, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to measure robust uncertainties. At the faint end, our UV luminosity functions agree with previous studies, yet we find a higher abundance of UV-bright candidate galaxies at z ⩾ 6. Our best-fit value of the characteristic magnitude M{sub UV}{sup ∗} is consistent with −21 at z ⩾ 5, which is different than that inferred based on previous trends at lower redshift, and brighter at ∼2σ significance than previous measures at z = 6 and 7. At z = 8, a single power law provides an equally good fit to the UV luminosity function, while at z = 6 and 7 an exponential cutoff at the bright end is moderately preferred. We compare our luminosity functions to semi-analytical models, and find that the lack of evolution in M{sub UV}{sup ∗} is consistent with models where the impact of dust attenuation on the bright end of the luminosity function decreases at higher redshift, although a decreasing impact of feedback may also be possible. We measure the evolution of the cosmic star-formation rate (SFR) density by integrating our observed luminosity functions to M{sub UV}=−17, correcting for dust attenuation, and find that the SFR density declines proportionally to (1 +z){sup −4.3±0.5} at z > 4, which is consistent with observations at z ⩾ 9. Our observed luminosity functions are consistent with a reionization history that starts at z ≳ 10, completes at z > 6, and reaches a midpoint (x{sub H II} = 0.5) at 6.7 < z < 9.4. Finally, using a constant cumulative number density selection and an empirically derived rising star-formation history, our observations predict that the abundance of bright z = 9 galaxies is likely higher than previous constraints, although consistent with recent estimates of bright z ∼ 10 galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A direct measurement of the mean occupation function of quasars: Breaking degeneracies between halo occupation distribution models

Recent work on quasar clustering suggests a degeneracy in the halo occupation distribution constrained from two-point correlation functions. To break this degeneracy, we make the first empirical measurement of the mean occupation function (MOF) of quasars at z ∼ 0.2 by matching quasar positions with groups and clusters identified in the MaxBCG sample. We fit two models to the MOF, a power law and a four-parameter model. The number distribution of quasars in host halos is close to Poisson, and the slopes of the MOF obtained from our best-fit models (for the power-law case) favor an MOF that monotonically increases with halo mass. The best-fit slopes are 0.53 ± 0.04 and 1.03 ± 1.12 for the power-law model and the four-parameter model, respectively. We measure the radial distribution of quasars within dark matter halos and find it to be adequately described by a power law with a slope –2.3 ± 0.4. We measure the conditional luminosity function (CLF) of quasars and show that there is no evidence that quasar luminosity depends on host halo mass, similar to the inferences drawn from clustering measurements. We also measure the conditional black hole mass function (CMF) of our quasars. Although the results are consistent with no dependence on halo mass, we observe a slight indication of downsizing of the black hole mass function. The lack of halo mass dependence in the CLF and CMF shows that quasars residing in galaxy clusters have characteristic luminosity and black hole mass scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Evolution of the Galaxy Rest-Frame Ultraviolet Luminosity Function Over the First Two Billion Years

We present a robust measurement and analysis of the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) luminosity function at z = 4 to 8. We use deep Hubble Space Telescope imaging over the CANDELS/GOODS fields, the Hubble Ultra Deep Field and the Hubble Frontier Field deep parallel observations near the Abell 2744 and MACS J0416.1- 2403 clusters. The combination of these surveys provides an effective volume of 0.6-1.2 ×10(exp 6) Mpc(exp 3) over this epoch, allowing us to perform a robust search for bright (M(sub UV) less than −21) and faint (M(sub UV) = −18) galaxies. We select galaxies using a well-tested photometric redshift technique with careful screening of contaminants, finding a sample of 7446 galaxies at 3.5 less than z less than 8.5, with more than 1000 galaxies at z of approximately 6 - 8. We measure both a stepwise luminosity function for galaxies in our redshift samples, as well as a Schechter function, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to measure robust uncertainties. At the faint end our UV luminosity functions agree with previous studies, yet we find a higher abundance of UV-bright galaxies at z of greater than or equal to 6. Our bestfit value of the characteristic magnitude M* is consistent with −21 at z of greater than or equal to 5, different than that inferred based on previous trends at lower redshift. At z = 8, a single power-law provides an equally good fit to the UV luminosity function, while at z = 6 and 7, an exponential cutoff at the bright-end is moderately preferred. We compare our luminosity functions to semi-analytical models, and find that the lack of evolution in M* is consistent with models where the impact of dust attenuation on the bright-end of the luminosity function decreases at higher redshift, though a decreasing impact of feedback may also be possible. We measure the evolution of the cosmic star-formation rate (SFR) density by integrating our observed luminosity functions to M(sub UV) = −17, correcting for dust attenuation, and find that the SFR density declines proportionally to (1 + z)((exp −4.3)(+/-)(0.5)) at z greater than 4, consistent with observations at z greater than or equal to 9. Our observed luminosity functions are consistent with a reionization history that starts at redshift of approximately greater than 10, completes at z greater than 6, and reaches a midpoint (x(sub HII) = 0.5) at 6.7 less than z less than 9.4. Finally, using a constant cumulative number density selection and an empirically derived rising star-formation history, our observations predict that the abundance of bright z = 9 galaxies is likely higher than previous constraints, though consistent with recent estimates of bright z similar to 10 galaxies.

Galaxy↗

THE STELLAR-TO-HALO MASS RELATION OF LOCAL GALAXIES SEGREGATES BY COLOR

By means of a statistical approach that combines different semi-empirical methods of galaxy-halo connection, we derive the stellar-to-halo mass relations (SHMR) of local blue and red central galaxies. We also constrain the fraction of halos hosting blue/red central galaxies and the occupation statistics of blue and red satellites as a function of halo mass, M {sub h}. For the observational input we use the blue and red central/satellite galaxy stellar mass functions and two-point correlation functions in the stellar mass range of 9 < log(M {sub *}/M {sub ☉}) <12. We find that: (1) the SHMR of central galaxies is segregated by color, with blue centrals having a SHMR above that of red centrals; at log(M {sub h}/M {sub ☉}) ∼12, the M {sub *}-to-M {sub h} ratio of the blue centrals is ≈0.05, which is ∼1.7 times larger than the value of red centrals. (2) The constrained scatters around the SHMRs of red and blue centrals are ≈0.14 and ≈0.11 dex, respectively. The scatter of the average SHMR of all central galaxies changes from ∼0.20 dex to ∼0.14 dex in the 11.3 < log(M {sub h}/M {sub ☉}) <15 range. (3) The fraction of halos hosting blue centrals at M{sub h}=10{sup 11} M {sub ☉} is 87%, but at 2 × 10{sup 12} M {sub ☉} decays to ∼20%, approaching a few percent at higher masses. The characteristic mass at which this fraction is the same for blue and red galaxies is M{sub h}≈7×10{sup 11} M {sub ☉}. Our results suggest that the SHMR of central galaxies at large masses is shaped by mass quenching. At low masses processes that delay star formation without invoking too strong supernova-driven outflows could explain the high M {sub *}-to-M {sub h} ratios of blue centrals as compared to those of the scarce red centrals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6

This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM), southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the first-order mode interactions are represented in Earth system model (ESM) output from the CMIP6 archive. Several skill metrics are used as part of a differential credibility assessment (DCA) of both spatial and temporal characteristics of the modes across ESMs, ESM families, and specific ESM realizations relative to ERA5. The spatial patterns and probability distributions are generally well represented but skill scores that measure the degree to which the frequencies of maximum variance are captured are consistently lower for most ESMs and climate modes. Substantial variability in skill scores manifests across realizations from individual ESMs for the PNA and oceanic modes. Further, the ESMs consistently overestimate the strength of the NAM–PNA first-order interaction and underestimate the NAM–AMO connection. Furthermore, these results suggest that the choice of ESM and ESM realizations will continue to play a critical role in determining climate projections at the global and regional scale at least in the near term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

First principles modeling of the metal-electrolyte interface: A novel approach to the study of the electrochemical interface

The research objective of this proposal is the computational modeling of the metal-electrolyte interface purely from first principles. The accurate calculation of the electrostatic potential at electrically biased metal-electrolyte interfaces is a current challenge for periodic “ab-initio” simulations. It is also an essential requisite for predicting the correspondence between the macroscopic voltage and the microscopic interfacial charge distribution in electrochemical fuel cells. This interfacial charge distribution is the result of the chemical bonding between solute and metal atoms, and therefore cannot be accurately calculated with the use of semi-empirical classical force fields. The project aims to study in detail the structure and dynamics of aqueous electrolytes at metallic interfaces taking into account the effect of the electrode potential. Another side of the project is to produce an accurate method to simulate the water/metal interface. While both experimental and theoretical surface scientists have made a lot of progress on the understanding and characterization of both atomistic structures and reactions at the solid/vacuum interface, the theoretical description of electrochemical interfaces is still lacking behind. A reason for this is that a complete and accurate first principles description of both the liquid and the metal interfaces is still computationally too expensive and complex, since their characteristics are governed by the explicit atomic and electronic structure built at the interface as a response to environmental conditions. This project will characterize in detail how different theoretical levels of modeling describer the metal/water interface. In particular the role of van der Waals interactions will be carefully analyzed and prescriptions to perform accurate simulations will be produced.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Enhancing Early Systems R&D Capabilities with Systems —Theoretic Process Analysis

Systems engineering today faces a wide array of challenges, ranging from new operational environments to disruptive technological — necessitating approaches to improve research and development (R&D) efforts. Yet, emphasizing the Aristotelian argument that the “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” seems to offer a conceptual foundation creating new R&D solutions. Invoking systems theoretic concepts of emergence and hierarchy and analytic characteristics of traceability, rigor, and comprehensiveness is potentially beneficial for guiding R&D strategy and development to bridge the gap between theoretical problem spaces and engineering-based solutions. In response, this article describes systems–theoretic process analysis (STPA) as an example of one such approach to aid in early-systems R&D discussions. STPA—a ‘top-down’ process that abstracts real complex system operations into hierarchical control structures, functional control loops, and control actions—uses control loop logic to analyze how control actions (designed for desired system behaviors) may become violated and drive the complex system toward states of higher risk. By analyzing how needed controls are not provided (or out of sequence or stopped too soon) and unneeded controls are provided (or engaged too long), STPA can help early-system R&D discussions by exploring how requirements and desired actions interact to either mitigate or potentially increase states of risk that can lead to unacceptable losses. This article will demonstrate STPA's benefit for early-system R&D strategy and development discussion by describing such diverse use cases as cyber security, nuclear fuel transportation, and US electric grid performance. Together, the traceability, rigor, and comprehensiveness of STPA serve as useful tools for improving R&D strategy and development discussions. In conclusion, leveraging STPA as well as related systems engineering techniques can be helpful in early R&D planning and strategy development to better triangulate deeper theoretical meaning or evaluate empirical results to better inform systems engineering solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗