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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Endpoint Use Efficiency Comparison for AC and DC Power Distribution in Commercial Buildings

Advances in power electronics and their use in Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) in buildings have resulted in increased interest in using low-voltage direct current (DC) power distribution as a replacement for the standard alternating current (AC) power distribution in buildings. Both systems require an endpoint converter to convert the distribution system voltage to the MELs voltage requirements. This study focused on the efficiency of these endpoint converters by testing pairs of AC/DC and DC/DC power converters powering the same load profile. In contrast to prior studies, which estimated losses based on data sheet efficiency and rated loads, in this study, we used part load data derived from real-world time-series load measurements of MELs and experimentally characterized efficiency curves for all converters. The measurements performed for this study showed no systematic efficiency advantage for commercially available DC/DC endpoint converters relative to comparable, commercially available AC/DC endpoint converters. For the eight appliances analyzed with the pair of converters tested, in 50%, the weighted energy efficiency of the DC/DC converter was higher, while, for the other 50%, the AC/DC converter was. Additionally, the measurements indicated that the common assumption of using either data sheet efficiency values or efficiency at full load may result in substantial mis-estimates of the system efficiency.

AC/DC converters↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical Investigation of High Delta T Sensible Storage Integrated CO2 Heat Pump: Preprint

To assist building heating electrification, this paper numerically investigates a load flexible heat pump system for commercial buildings. The system consists of a CO2 vapor compression cycle, a sensible thermal storage tank, and an air handling unit. The thermal storage medium is inexpensive, non-toxic and stable anti-freeze solution (30% potassium acetate). The air handing unit has an indoor coil and a ventilation coil. The system can be used to manage building electric load. During peak hours, the heat pump is off and the hot solution water is discharged from the tank to heat up the indoor air and ventilation air. During the hour of charge, the heat pump delivers hot solution water to the tank and to the air. The tank can also stand by while the heat pump provides space heating directly. We selected a medium sized office building located in Minnesota as the representative building and used EnergyPlus to obtain its 24 hour load data. We designed three storage tank volumes assuming 50 degrees C, 65 degrees C and 80 degrees C tank temperatures to independently provide the building load for 4 hours in the morning. The higher the tank temperature, the smaller the required volume, and thus higher energy density. The effective energy density is 78 with an 80 degrees C tank, and 40 kWhth/m3 with 50 degrees C. We simulated the tank integrated heat pump performance subjected to the 24-hour building load profile and ambient data. The baseline is the same system without storage tank. There was a trade-off between the storage energy density and the charging COP. The charge hour COP was 2.77 to charge the tank to 80 degrees C, and 3.01 to 50 degrees C. The proposed system could shift building load from the peak hours (8:00 - 12:00) to off-business hour (23:00 - 7:00+1). It eliminated 100% compressor electricity use during the peak hours, and avoided a peak electric power of 34 kW. The 65 degrees C tank saved 9.5 kWhe (4%) considering all day operation, which was the best balance between energy density and the system operation efficiency among the three options.

CO2 heat pump↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure into Commercial Buildings and Mixed-Use Communities: Design, Modeling, and Control Optimization Opportunities: Preprint

This paper discusses modeling and field studies of controlled EV charging that have been performed with the goal of minimizing requirements for infrastructure upgrades, minimizing building peak demand charges, and maximizing the use of on-site generation. We present a large-scale workplace charging pilot of a demand-controlled scheduled EV charging system with over 250 active daily commuters, successfully demonstrating management of aggregate charging power to avoid new infrastructure investments, mitigate peak demand charges, and provide cost-effective workplace charging to users. In addition to understanding opportunities for demand management, integrating these controllable loads into the energy modeling process for new buildings will also be necessary. This paper then presents an example energy modeling process that evaluates the potential effects of EV charging on building load profiles and infrastructure requirements for a mixed-use community. Finally, we discuss an illustration of how EV charging can be controlled to be synergistic with other building loads and distributed generation.

buildings↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven method for electric vehicle charging demand analysis: Case study in Virginia

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S. will be accelerated by the historic $7.5 billion public investments in EV charging infrastructure. Careful analysis of EV charging demands plays a vital role in understanding the energy requirements, power grid impact, and smart charging management opportunities of EVs. To this end, this paper develops a data-driven trip-chaining-based modeling framework including five steps: Trip data acquisition and preprocessing, EV adoption modeling, travel itinerary synthesis, EV charging demand simulation and EV load profile generation. The developed analysis framework was demonstrated using real-world data for one region in Virginia, U.S. The results show that the proposed modeling framework can work effectively. For the study region in 2040, the predicted number of plug-in EVs is 470,114, resulting in a weekly charging demand of 38,078,127 kWh (55% home, 9% work, and 36% public) in September and 45,920,358 kWh (61% home, 9% work, and 30% public) in February.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Eco-driving Profile Optimization by Dynamic Programming for Battery Electric Vehicles

Although full automation has not yet been achieved, automated vehicles are a valid research area. Not only would automated vehicles provide ultimate driver convenience, but they would maximize energy efficiency by eliminating undesired human driving behaviors and optimally controlling the powertrain. From the perspective of control related to energy saving, speed profile optimization is important for improving system efficiency and satisfying passenger demands. This study employs Dynamic Programming (DP) to solve the constrained optimal problem for travel time, distance, and speed limit by exploring all possible control options. The solutions obtained by DP demonstrate consistent control patterns combining four control modes-acceleration, cruising, coasting, and braking, with cruising or coasting being selective depending on the boundary conditions. Further, this study introduces DP-based simulation results and attempts to provide comprehensive interpretations of the optimal policy by analyzing the essential factors that affect the control problem, including boundary conditions, road load, and powertrain characteristics. Based on these interpretations, the control concepts can be explained as the optimal policy selecting the best control option based on system efficiency and boundary conditions. The results of DP are compared with a human-like driver model to show that the optimal speed profiles can effectively reduce energy consumption.

Autonomous vehicles↗
DOE OSTI2020

Charge Management for an Inductively Charged On-Demand Battery-Electric Shuttle Service with High Penetration of Renewable Energy

This paper presents a charge management control strategy for an on-demand battery-electric shuttle van operating at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) campus and supported by day-time inductive charging at the vehicle's waiting spot. A new control algorithm has been proposed for reducing the demand charge costs incurred from wireless charging of the on-demand shuttle. A custom controller has been developed to monitor the shuttle, wireless charger, renewable energy generation, and various loads at NREL's campus, and regulate charging behavior for demand response. The intermittent renewable generation and sporadic operation of the on-demand shuttle service contribute to a high level of uncertainty in expected campus load profile, which must be carefully managed. The control algorithm predicts energy profile to estimate the mobility needs of the vehicle and maintain uninterrupted service during operation while still minimizing peak demand. The proposed controller has been designed and optimized using a Simulink model for the entire system. Next, it has been implemented and tested in real-time on the NREL campus. Two primary vehicle-use cases, charge sustaining and charge depletion operation, are tested under different load profiles and drive cycles to assess the controller's effectiveness at reducing peak demand and therefore demand charges. The proposed controller showed robust performance under different driving scenarios with high correlation between simulated and experimental data. The results showed that proper demand response can be achieved with an average of 94% reduction of charging loads during peak demand events.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Fidelity Analysis of EV Integration on Real Utility Feeders in Colorado

Residential electric vehicle (EV) charging has the potential to alter long-held assumptions on load characteristics impacting distribution grid planning, operations, and design standards. This study identifies analysis and control methods to increase the affordability of residential EV charging both for Xcel Energy and their customers. The project also provides solutions for more reliable grid interconnection that can support a reliable utility business model prepared for increasing EV charging load in the coming years. For this project, we referenced Level 2 alternating current (AC) onboard charging profiles for various vehicle models and high-fidelity charging data collected at the experimental setup established at the EV Research Infrastructure Laboratory at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Next, we developed EV adoption models for 2030 and 2040 for the Boulder and Aurora regions in Colorado. Moreover, we evaluated different smart charging control algorithms and compared their performance. We developed time-of-use (TOU)-based and grid-aware active EV charging control methods and integrated them within the study region to understand field impacts. Diving deeper, we selected 10 feeders in Boulder and Aurora for high-fidelity grid modeling down to the house level. We executed detailed grid analysis comparing the smart charge management (SCM) algorithms we developed. Finally, we created a novel tool, Electric Vehicle Infrastructure--Distribution System Integration Tool (EVI-DiST), to integrate all the approaches in a single software environment to provide easy integration, fast simulation, and detailed evaluation capability for utility engineers and other stakeholders.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decom- pose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high- level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

In-Situ Blade Strain Measurements of a Crossflow Turbine Operating in a Tidal Flow

This data was collected between October 25 and December 12 of 2022 at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and Atlantic Marine Energy Center (AMEC) turbine deployment platform (TDP). The goal was to collect blade strain data from a crossflow turbine operating in a tidal flow. A table in ('Deployment Schedule.PNG') outlines the various dates when each instrument was operational, and more details can be found via literature listed in 'Related Publications'.txt. This dataset includes zipped folders for each instrument containing data in .csv files for the relevant duration specific to each instrument, along with separate README file for each measurement. Some instrument files are quite large and can pose a challenge for a visual spreadsheet editor to open. A processing software like MATLAB or Python is recommended. All data contained in this submission is unfiltered/unprocessed data unless otherwise noted in the README file. Blade strain was measured using 8 foil-based strain gauges along the span of a single turbine blade. Water currents were measured using Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP's) and Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADV's) both upstream and downstream of the turbine for inflow, wake and turbulence measurements. Electrical power output was measured using the Voltsys rectifier. Shaft speed was calculated based on the Voltsys measurements of the permanent magnet three phase generator AC generation frequency, coupled directly to the cross flow turbine under test (i.e., no gear box). Platform motions were captured using a Yost IMU (inertial measurement unit). Turbine thrust loading was measured using a reaction arm about the turbine deployment platform spanning beam, where two bi-directional load cells were connected to the system via a pinned connection. The TDP is a floating structure moored on the Portsmouth facing side of Memorial Bridge pier #2, which spans the Piscataqua River between Portsmouth, NH and Kittery, ME. The Piscataqua River connects the Great Bay Estuary to the Gulf of Maine and the river currents are dominated by tidal flow with water velocities exceeding 2.5 m/s during spring ebb tides at this site which were previously characterized by Chancey 2019. The turbine under test was a modified New Energy Corporation (Calgary, CA) model EVG-025 4-blade H-Darrius type vertical axis cross flow turbine that rotates in the clockwise direction with a rotor diameter of 3.2m and blade length of 1.7m. The hydro-foil profile was a NACA 0021 with a 10 inch chord length and a blade preset pitch angle of +4deg with a positive angle corresponding with the toe in direction. The standard EVG-025 has a rotor diameter of 3.4m and its rated power output is 25kW at 3 m/s. The rotor diameter was reduced to accommodate the size of the existing TDP moon-pool. A single blade of this turbine was further modified to accommodate 8 full-bridge strain gauges (Bharath et al 2023, Bichanich et al 2024). For power performance and other relevant details on the turbine and its characteristics, see O'Byrne 2022.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below $5\%$ MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Implementation of Smart Wireless Charging of On-Demand Shuttle Service for Demand Charge Mitigation

This paper presents a smart charge management strategy for an on-demand electric shuttle operating at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) campus and supported by an inductive charger at the vehicle's waiting spot. A new control algorithm has been proposed for mitigating the demand charges incurred from the wireless charger. It monitors the shuttle, wireless charger, renewable energy generation, and other loads and regulates charging behavior for demand charge mitigation. Within the control algorithm, an energy prediction is made to estimate the mobility needs of the vehicle and maintain uninterrupted service during operation while still minimizing peak demand. The proposed controller is designed and optimized using a Simulink model for the entire system. It is then implemented and tested in real time at the NREL campus using online cloud services. Two vehicle-use cases' charge-sustaining and charge-depletion operation' are tested under different campus power profiles and drive cycles to assess the controller's performance. In this work, the proposed controller showed a robust performance under different driving scenarios, with high correlation between simulation and experimental data. The results show that proper demand response can be achieved, with an average of 94% reduction of charging loads during peak demand events.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Optimization and Control of a Hybrid Gas Turbine/sCO 2 Power System

During phase-I, the project team led by Echogen Power Systems (EPS) had two primary objectives based on investigating the application of gas turbines with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycles. The first objective was to improve the overall efficiency and performance of a hybrid gas turbine/sCO 2 power system through a joint optimization of the two subsystems (gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle) using non-linear optimization techniques that simultaneously evaluate thermal performance of the combined cycle. The hybrid power system included several points of interaction, including (but not limited to) gas turbine exhaust, fuel heating, inlet chilling and turbine cooling. The second objective was to establish a baseline transient response model of the hybrid power system and a notional microgrid and begin steps to integrate the control systems of the three major elements (gas turbine, sCO 2 cycle and grid controller). The project team established a baseline performance for a combined cycle power plant using a production gas turbine and scaled sCO 2 power cycle only utilizing exhaust heat recovery. Echogen’s non-linear techno-economic optimization code was extended by adding gas turbine component models derived from a in-house developed gas turbine design code. With the two cycles coupled by the gas turbine exhaust, design parameters of both cycles were allowed to vary simultaneously to determine performance opportunity versus isolated designs. Returning to the baseline gas turbine/sCO 2 power cycle transient models: Echogen had in-house developed sCO 2 cycle transient model in GT-Suite system simulation software, and had partnered with Siemens Finspång for gas turbine transient model, and Siemens PTI group to provide micro-grid load profile as well as hybrid power cycle generated load (power and frequency) analysis. The transient model for the SGT-750 Siemens gas turbine was a “black-box” functional mock-up interface (FMI) model developed by Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery in Finspång, Sweden. The SGT-750 is a twin-shaft gas turbine that produces 40 MW electricity with an efficiency of about 40% at ISO conditions. At 100% gas turbine throttle (load), the SGT-750 has average exhaust conditions of 114.6 kg/s and 469.8°C. The transient model for sCO 2 power cycle was developed by Echogen in GT-SUITE 1D system simulation software platform. The basic CO 2 flow circuit has single-shaft turbomachinery with net 11.5 MW electrical power output at design conditions. The power turbine has a double-ended shaft with one end connected to synchronous generator through a fixed-ratio gearbox. The other end of power turbine is connected to the compressor through a continuously variable transmission. The major components of the sCO 2 power cycle modeled include air cooled condenser/cooler, CO 2 compressor, recuperator, two waste heat exchanger coils, power turbine, continuous variable transmission, gearbox and generator. Integration of SGT-750 transient model and sCO 2 power cycle transient model was done in Matlab Simulink. In the integrated model, the gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle interacted at two points, first one being the gas turbine exhaust gas flow rate and temperature, which were inputs to sCO 2 power cycle model. The second point was the distribution of micro-grid load demand signal between the SGT-750 generator and sCO 2 cycle generator. For a given combined-cycle load demand, the gas turbine load demand was equal to the total demand minus the sCO 2 cycle power generated. In the present study the integrated model was simulated for two cases of grid load demand: (i) for a step change, both positive-step and negative-step, in grid load demand (ii) for a micro-grid load demand curve provided by Siemens PTI group. Finally, the time series plots representing load demand versus integrated system response were presented including the sCO 2 power cycle control system performance plots. The actual generated power and frequency of both the generators, gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle, was supplied to Siemens PTI group for dynamic grid assessment, results of which are provided in appendices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

UNH TDP - Concurrent Measurements of Inflow, Power Performance, and Loads for a Grid-Synchronized Vertical Axis Cross-Flow Turbine Operating in a Tidal Estuary

This data was collected between October 12 and December 15 of 2021 at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and Atlantic Marine Energy Center (AMEC) turbine deployment platform (TDP). This data set includes over 29 days of grid connected turbine operation during this 65 day time frame. The priority for this measurement campaign was to collect data while the turbine was electrically connected to the grid by means of a rectifier and inverter. The Fall_2021_UNH_Measurement_Timeline.png highlights when each instrument was functioning and the Fall_2021_UNH_Test_Log.jpg indicates the four main regions for analysis available from this measurement campaign. The TDP is a floating structure moored on the Portsmouth facing side of Memorial Bridge pier #2, which spans the Piscataqua River between Portsmouth, NH and Kittery, ME. The Piscataqua River connects the Great Bay Estuary to the Gulf of Maine and the river currents are dominated by tidal forcing with water velocities exceeding 2.5 m/s during spring ebb tides at this site which were previously characterized by Kaelin Chancey (Assessment Of The Localized Flow And Tidal Energy Conversion System At An Estuarine Bridge - UNH MS Thesis 2019). The turbine under test was a modified New Energy Corporation (Calgary, CA) model EVG-025 4-blade H-Darrius type vertical axis cross flow turbine that rotates in the clockwise direction with a rotor diameter of 3.2m and blade length of 1.7m. The hydro-foil profile was a NACA 0021 with a 10 inch chord length and a blade preset pitch angle of +4deg with a positive angle corresponding with the toe in direction. The standard EVG-025 has a rotor diameter of 3.4m and its rated power output is 25kW at 3 m/s. The rotor diameter was reduced to accommodate the size of the existing TDP moon-pool. This project was pursued to quantify device performance for cross flow turbines operating in a marine environment. Accurate physical models, to characterize cross flow turbine performance, require real operational data sets due to the complexity of blade fluid interactions. This data can help support model development which will help predict turbine performance when analyzing perspective project locations in the future. Instrumentation was deployed to measure; water speed/direction, electrical power output, turbine shaft speed, turbine thrust force, and platform motion. Concurrent measurements of these parameters allow for correlations (cause and affect) to be inferred, allowing for characterization of device performance over a range of operating conditions. Water currents were measured using Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP's) and Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADV's) directly upstream and downstream of the turbine for inflow, wake and turbulence measurements. Electrical power output was measured using the Voltsys rectifier and the Shark power meter. Shaft speed was calculated based on the Voltsys measurements of the permanent magnet three phase generator AC generation frequency, coupled directly to the cross flow turbine under test (i.e., no gear box). Platform motions were captured using a Yost IMU (inertial measurement unit). Turbine thrust loading was measured using a reaction arm about the turbine deployment platform spanning beam, where two bi-directional load cells were connected to the system via a pinned connection. This submission includes zipped folders for each instrument containing quality controlled (QC'd) data in daily .csv files for the relevant duration specific to each instrument, along with separate .csv file that contains the units for each variable. Some instrument daily files are quite large and can pose a challenge for a visual spreadsheet editor to open. A processing software like MATLAB or Python is recommended. Note the degree of QC varied between each instrument due to time constraints. Particular time and attention was given to perform quality control tests on the acoustic based instruments that are particularly suscep...

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification and Testing of Electric Vehicle Fast Charger Cybersecurity Mitigations

Fast-charging infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) is needed to enable and achieve the national goals of transitioning the vehicle fleet toward more electrification. Idaho National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have jointly worked to identify, evaluate, and mitigate potential cyber-related consequences associated with fast charger systems. NREL contributed by considering cyberattack scenarios and consequences associated with integrating distributed energy resources (DERs) at fast-charging stations. The dynamic nature of fast-charger load profiles would encourage site operators to incorporate solar for energy cost reduction and energy storage for peak demand cost management at future charging facilities with multiple fast chargers at a site. These energy resources would be monitored and coordinated via a site energy management controller with data exchange between devices and local power metering infrastructure; thus, networking between devices and the design of the system becomes important in the overall cybersecurity posture. In addition, component vendors and system operators might have remote interfaces to any of these systems. It is therefore important to understand the breadth of the cyberattack surface and potential strategies to mitigate impacts. This project has focused on components and protocols expected to be found within a local charging site that includes multiple chargers and DER resources. Our methods and results are summarized in this final report.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Console Water-to-Air Geothermal Heat Pump

Executive Summary Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past several years, the objective of this work is to produce national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover most of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. This measure models the conversion of an existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to a series of “console” water-to-air heat pumps served by a ground heat exchanger. Console water-to-air geothermal heat pumps (GHP) are all-in-one packages that have no or minimal ductwork and serve individual spaces. Properly designed ground heat exchanger-coupled systems can offer benefits in energy efficiency relative to “conventional” HVAC systems, as well as facilitating beneficial electrification. Console GHPs can be coupled to a ground loop on the source side and can directly replace electric baseboard heaters or air-source packaged terminal heat pumps. Console GHPs can also bring in outdoor air for ventilation. This measure will be referred to throughout the document as the “Console GHP” upgrade.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior

To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗