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At least 217 records · Page 12

Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change

Abstract The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3 ∘ C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3 ∘ C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline.

de Lima, Cicero Z. (ORCID:0000000297005435)↗

Supplementing biofuel mandates with a carbon mitigation policy can lead to water quality co-benefits

Biofuel mandates can impact the environment in multiple ways that may be positive or negative, including affecting life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuels, affecting soil carbon stocks due to accompanying land use change, and water quality due to changes in fertilizer requirements and the mix of crops used as feedstocks. To achieve desired environmental outcomes in the presence of a biofuel mandate, additional policy instruments must be adopted to supplement the mandate. We develop an integrated and spatially explicit ecosystem-economic modeling framework to analyze the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies to achieve desired targets for GHG emissions reduction from the agricultural and fuel sectors in the USA and nitrate leaching reduction in the Gulf of Mexico below the levels that would be achieved by a corn ethanol and/or a cellulosic ethanol mandate in the USA. We find that while a corn ethanol mandate lowers GHG emissions, it increases nitrate leaching due to the expansion of corn production; a cellulosic ethanol mandate lowers both GHG emissions and nitrate leaching relative to a corn ethanol mandate, but the additional carbon and nitrate prices are needed to achieve anticipated GHG reduction and nitrate reduction targets. We also find that accompanying a biofuel mandate with a GHG reduction target alone leads to substantial nitrate reduction co-benefits, but a nitrate reduction target alone is less effective in reducing GHG emissions. Combining a GHG standard with a nitrate standard can achieve GHG and nitrate reduction targets at lower carbon and nitrate prices as compared to implementing each of these policies independently. Furthermore, our findings show that disregarding policy co-benefits can overestimate the GHG and nitrate prices needed to achieve policy targets and higher policy costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Self-Aligned Selective Area Front Contacts on Poly -Si/SiO x Passivating Contact c -Si Solar Cells

We report both polarity poly-Si/SiO x passivating contacts in a front/back device configuration may represent the next solar cell architecture after tunnel oxide passivating contacts (TOPCon) cells, but high parasitic absorption in the front poly -Si layer often limits its performance. This work explores a wet etching technique to remove the front poly -Si in the nonmetallized regions using self-aligned metal grids as an etch mask. We systematically examine various dielectric layers (SiN x ,Al 2 O 3 , and stacks thereof) to study the repassivation of the etched n + surface, and find that an SiN x /Al 2 O 3 passivation stack can effectively repassivate the etched surface, which we attribute to field-effect passivation from the positive fixed charge from the SiN x layer, and excellent chemical passivation property from Al 2 O 3 in the form of atomic H. We demonstrate a front/back poly-Si/SiO x passivating contact device, with an open-circuit voltage (V oc ) of 690 mV, short-circuit current density (J sc ) of 39.8 mA/cm 2 , fill factor of 78%, and power conversion efficiency of 21.4%. Furthermore, simulations using SunSolve and Quokka 3 show good agreement with both the optical and electrical properties of the experimental device. The power loss analysis reveals improvements in the optical loss from the back Ti adhesion and front SiN x layers would lead to a 23.5% device. Lastly, a techno-economic model compares the production cost of this improved cell with the current TOPCon cells. Our results highlight that further cost reductions in single-sided doped poly -Si layers are needed to compete with mainstream passivated emitter and rear cell, and TOPCon technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Simulated Evaluation of Powder Flowability Through a Partially Obstructed Consumable in Blown Powder Directed Energy Deposition Systems

Abstract In the interest of continued industrialization of metal additive manufacturing in modern production environments, cost is often referenced as a primary deterrent to new adopters. Conventional economic models for additive systems, processes, and supply chains often focus on specific process applications with little generalizability, or they neglect significant costs associated with production such as machine maintenance and consumable part replacement. Compounding the latter issue are substantial knowledge gaps in consumable part wear characterization for additive and other convergent manufacturing systems. In coaxial blown powder directed energy deposition systems, gas atomized metal powder is wasted during material deposition at a rate that is partly dependent on present wear phenomena in a consumable nozzle housed in the cladding head assembly. The price and lead time required to replace the nozzle incentivizes its reuse even when visibly worn. Often this initiates a process quality decline in the form of underbuilt geometry and internal defects due to losses in powder catchment efficiency. While depositing H13 steel using a hybrid manufacturing machine tool equipped with such a deposition system, a unique partial clog with a bridge-like structure formed at the consumable nozzle exit when supporting argon gas flows failed mid-process. To further understand coaxial multi-phase powder flow in the event of support gas failure, a computational fluid dynamics simulation is tailored to relevant process parameters, H13 powder material profile, and machine operator observations collected after the incident. The resulting differences in powder flow compared to control gas flow parameters is presented and discussed. The powder flowability and performance of the clogged nozzle is then assessed by using an optical profilometer to extract the profile of the clog and recreate the clog geometry within the simulation environment. In past work this simulation has been experimentally validated for a 316L steel powder material profile and used specifically for analyzing powder stream geometry and catchment efficiency. After the initial powder flow characterization, the clog is removed, and the nozzle is reprofiled. After removing the obstructing clog, the newly unobstructed nozzle geometry, the original off the shelf nozzle geometry, and additional nozzle profiles exploring different consumable refurbishment strategies are reevaluated in the simulation. Powder catchment efficiency for all variant nozzle geometries and relevant flow variables are compared and discussed, along with potential mitigation strategies for optimizing powder flowability with worn consumables. This work expands on the known morphology of blown powder obstructions and wear defects present in consumable coaxial nozzles while discussing pragmatic simulation driven responses to unanticipated subsystem failure in hybrid manufacturing machining platforms.

DeWitte, Lisa↗

Decision Support System

Forest-based value chains involve decisions that begin at the landscape level and extend through processing, product manufacturing, and end-use markets. However, these decisions are often made independently across sectors, with limited visibility into how upstream resource conditions, incentives, and land management choices influence downstream production systems. In forested regions of the United States, wildfire risk, fragmented ownership, and uncertain markets for low-value residues complicate efforts to align extraction, processing, and utilization decisions. Without tools that link these stages, stakeholders may overlook opportunities to improve resource utilization or inadvertently shift impacts elsewhere in the value chain. This repository introduces a decision support system (DSS) that applies a system-impact-analysis approach to forest biomass residues and co-products. The framework integrates forest inventory data, geospatial resource assessments, and economic modeling to evaluate how biomass extraction decisions influence downstream product pathways. By linking regional feedstock avail- ability with market incentives and processing options—such as fuels, wood products, or soil amendments like biochar—the tool allows decision-makers to compare value chain outcomes across multiple utilization strategies.

Davis, Maggie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

pnnl/GeoCLUSTER

GeoCLUSTER is a Python-based web application that provides a collection of interactive methods for streamlining the visualization of the technical and economic modeling of closed-loop geothermal systems.

Buchko, Alex [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

BLEECAM™ (Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials) [SWR-25-125]

The National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials (BLEECAM™) is an open-source, integrated decision-support tool for evaluating the impacts, risks, and trade-offs across U.S. and global materials supply chains. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, BLEECAM supports supply chain and market analysis. The tool integrates multi-objective supply chain optimization, system dynamics, network design, lifecycle assessment, techno-economic modeling, and social impact assessment methods to evaluate how supply chains evolve over time, geography, and deployment scenarios. BLEECAM also supports analysis related to energy infrastructure, data centers and digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors that depend on critical materials.

Khalifa, SherifA. [National Laboratory of the Rock↗

Long-Term Vehicle Speed Prediction via Historical Traffic Data Analysis for Improved Energy Efficiency of Connected Electric Vehicles

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to provide enhanced safety, mobility, and energy efficiency. While abundant evidence has been accumulated showing substantial energy saving potentials of CAVs through eco-driving, traffic condition prediction has remained to be the main challenge in capitalizing the gains. The coupled power and thermal subsystems of CAVs necessitate the use of different speed preview windows for effective and integrated power and thermal management. Real-time vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications can provide an accurate speed prediction over a short prediction horizon (e.g., 30 s to 60 s), but not for a long range (e.g., over 180 s). Therefore, advanced approaches are required to develop detailed speed prediction for robust optimization-based energy management of CAVs. This paper presents an integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data classification and real-time V2I communications for efficient energy management of electrified CAVs. The proposed framework provides multi-range speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The proposed multi-range speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs). The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the proposed data classification strategy over a long prediction horizon. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAVs’ speed predictions, the vehicle-level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal driving (i.e., human driver) and conventional BTM strategy.

Engineering↗

Tandem particle-slurry batch reactors for solar water splitting (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Economically, particle slurry reactors are projected to be one of the most promising technologies for solar photoelectrochemical hydrogen production, according to a 2009 techno-economic analysis commissioned by the US DOE and performed by Directed Technologies, Inc. The Fuel Cell Technologies Office’s Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration (MYRD&D) goals and targets are to reduce the cost of H 2 produced from renewable sources at the plant gate (i.e. not including delivery, dispensing, or storage) to < $2.00/gge, equivalent to ~$2.00/kg H 2 . Research results from our techno-economic modeling research suggest that this target could be met using particle slurry reactors assuming STH efficiencies in the range of 5 – 10%, materials lifetimes of < 1 year, and nanoparticles that cost up to 20 times more than projected costs of TiO 2 -coated Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticles. Although most large worldwide research efforts directed at solar photoelectrochemical hydrogen production focus on wafer-based designs, the projected lower cost for a particle slurry reactor at these disparate projected STH efficiencies clearly suggests that particle slurry reactors could be a scalable and deployable technology, assuming several challenges are overcome. These major technological challenges include the demonstration of a vertically-stacked-vessel architecture that is capable of operating sustainably while mostly relying on diffusion and natural convection to mix the redox shuttles between the vessels, and the demonstration that photocatalyst particles can operate at an overall 1% STH efficiency or larger when incorporated into this two-vessel design. Our research adds to the understanding of photocatalytic reactors for solar water splitting through numerical modeling results and experimental results. Numerical models were developed to simulate relevant device physics including particle and reactor dimensions which affect optical, transport, and rheological properties, electrocatalytic and photovoltaic properties of particles at various temperatures, and properties of redox shuttles and separators. Moreover, theoretical maximum solar-to-hydrogen efficiencies for ensembles of particles like in photocatalyst reactors were modeled and simulated and shown to equal or exceed those of photoelectrochemical designs under most scenarios. These results help determine constraints on the reactor that will enable more optimal designs for future prototypes. In parallel, experiments were performed to identify the most effective redox shuttles and to empirically validate the numerical models and simulations. Toward the latter, state-of-the-art light-absorbing particles and electrocatalysts were synthesized and characterized physically and photoelectrochemically for water electrolysis and redox chemistry with redox shuttles in the form factor of mesoporous electrodes and free-floating particles. The most promising materials candidates were used in a suspension reactor to evaluate performance toward photocatalytic H 2 production and results from the two measurements were compared. Predominantly, state-of-the-art cocatalyst-modified Rh-doped SrTiO 3 and BiVO 4 particles were further characterized to assess for their ability to perform visible-light-driven H 2 and O 2 evolution, respectively, and results were similar to those reported for the state-of-the-art in the peer-reviewed literature. Outcomes from this work inform the public of the effectiveness and promise of solar photocatalytic water splitting for clean and renewable hydrogen production. This work may also help increase research interest and funding for photocatalysis projects, which will accelerate development of a technology that will benefit the public by generating fuel while emitting few greenhouse gases and pollutants.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Spatial Atomic Layer Deposition to Scale Manufacturing of Robust Catalysts for Biomass Conversion Applications: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-17-715

This CRADA will facilitate technology maturation for NREL-developed ALD-coated catalyst materials that are tailored for durability during harsh biomass conversion chemistries. This project will address optimizing process parameters for scale-up of Al2O3 ALD-coated catalysts, demonstrating ALD-coated catalyst performance for muconic acid hydrogenation, and validating economic models that project significant cost benefits for ALD-enhanced catalytic processes. This work will strengthen private-public partnerships in the area of advanced catalyst manufacturing for energy-related technology. Critical information will be collected to elevate the Technology Readiness Level and increase our competitiveness for cooperative R&D agreements and licensing. Success of this work will be crosscutting as it can facilitate advanced catalyst development for both renewable and conventional processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Electrochemical conversion of carbon dioxide into chemicals and fuels

CO 2 electrolysis could provide a route to recycle waste CO 2 back to useful carbon-based products that are the basis of today’s economy. Opus 12 worked together with LBNL staff to further develop their CO 2 conversion electrolyzer. Improvements were made to catalyst testing throughput and long-term testing up to 1000h. A basic techno-economic model was constructed to estimate the product cost of CO 2 -derived compounds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Advanced Gas Turbine and sCO 2 Combined Cycle Power System (Final Report)

The team of Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), Hanwha Power Systems Americas (HPSA), and Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar) has worked to develop a modular, highly efficient combined-cycle power system consisting of a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 )-based waste-heat recovery system (WHRS) coupled to a Solar Titan 130 gas turbine (GT). During Phase 1 of the project, the project team used advanced thermodynamic cycle and techno-economic modeling to find an optimal sCO 2 WHRS bottoming cycle and machinery configuration for a Solar Titan 130. In addition to this, a conceptual design of the machinery and overall system layout was created and technology gaps were identified.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Flexible Nuclear Energy for Clean Energy Systems

As part of the Nuclear Innovation: Clean Energy Future initiative, this report describes flexibility in nuclear systems, the value it can bring, and international experiences surrounding flexible nuclear energy. Flexible nuclear energy for this report is defined as “The ability of nuclear energy generation to economically provide energy services at the time and location they are needed by end-users. These energy services can include both electric and non-electric applications utilizing both traditional nuclear power plants and advanced integrated systems.” Flexibility in nuclear systems is enabled by three main mechanisms: core ramping, integrated energy systems with multiple byproducts, and thermal storage. The value of this flexibility on a $\$$/MW and a $\$$/MWh basis can be estimated through a combination of physics and economics modeling. International agencies describe their experiences in operating flexible nuclear systems and describe their plans for increasing nuclear flexibility in a clean energy system, likely with a high penetration of variable renewable energy.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The Argon Power Cycle, a zero emission, flexible and reliable power generation technology

The proposed project was aimed at assisting in the development of the Argon Power Cycle (APC), a zero emission, flexible, and efficient power generation technology. In the effort of bringing the APC to the market, NTS proposed in the scope of this project several partial but key activities to advance the development of the APC. These tasks encompassed 1) the analysis of the market, developing a techno-economic model with integrated market inputs, 2) further optimization of our chemical kinetics models for more accurate simulation of the process and 3) scale up of our original prototype to a larger, commercially viable platform. NTS expanded on this scope of work to secure additional R&D funding in amounts north of $7M, carry out customer discovery with the sponsorship of the NSF and grow the team’s engineering talent.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Energy Storage Financing: Project and Portfolio Valuation

This study investigates the issues and challenges surrounding energy storage project and portfolio valuation and provide insights in to improving visibility into the process for developers, capital providers, and customers so they can make more informed choices. Energy storage project valuation methodology is typical of power sector projects through evaluating various revenue and cost assumptions in a project economic model. The difference is that energy storage projects have many more design and operational variables to incorporate, and the governing market rules that control these variables are still evolving. This makes project valuation for energy storage more difficult. As the number of operating projects grow, portfolios of these projects are being developed, garnering the interest of larger investors. Valuation challenges of these portfolios can be even more challenging as market role and geographical diversity can actually exacerbate the variability, not mitigate it. By proposing additional visibility of key factors and drivers for industry participants, the US DOE can reduce investment risk, expanding both the number and types of investors, plus helping emerging energy storage technology into sustained commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Enhanced Catalyst Durability for the Oxidative Production of Biobased Chemicals (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

This CRADA will facilitate technology maturation for NREL-developed atomic layer deposition (ALD) coated catalyst materials that are tailored for durability during the oxidative production of biobased chemicals. This project will address optimizing process parameters for scaling aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) ALD coated catalysts, demonstrating ALD coated catalyst performance for biomass oxidation, and validating economic models that project significant cost benefits for ALD-enhanced catalytic processes. This work will strengthen private-public partnerships in the area of advanced catalyst manufacturing for energy-related technology. Critical information will be collected to elevate the Technology Readiness Level and increase our competitiveness for cooperative R&D agreements and licensing. Success of this work will be crosscutting as it can facilitate advanced catalyst development for both renewable and conventional processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An Integrated Platform for Wind Power Plant Operations: From Atmosphere to Electrons to the Grid (A2e2g)

The research objective for the Atmosphere to Electrons to the Grid (A2e2g) project was to design a platform that merges forecasting tools with aerodynamic and economic models. The value proposition is that expanding wind power plant operation to include grid services allows those plants to operate in markets for grid services as well as energy markets, increasing revenue streams for wind plant operators while contributing to reliable grid operation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗