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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Real Time 3D Observations of Portland Cement Carbonation at CO2 Storage Conditions

Depleted oil reservoirs are considered a viable solution to the global challenge of CO 2 storage. A key concern is whether the wells can be suitably sealed with cement to hinder the escape of CO 2 . Under reservoir conditions, CO 2 is in its supercritical state, and the high pressures and temperatures involved make real-time microscopic observations of cement degradation experimentally challenging. Here, we present an in situ 3D dynamic X-ray micro computed tomography (μ-CT) study of well cement carbonation at realistic reservoir stress, pore-pressure, and temperature conditions. The high-resolution time-lapse 3D images allow monitoring the progress of reaction fronts in Portland cement, including density changes, sample deformation, and mineral precipitation and dissolution. By switching between flow and nonflow conditions of CO 2 -saturated water through cement, we were able to delineate regimes dominated by calcium carbonate precipitation and dissolution. For the first time, we demonstrate experimentally the impact of the flow history on CO 2 leakage risk for cement plugging. In-situ μ-CT experiments combined with geochemical modeling provide unique insight into the interactions between CO 2 and cement, potentially helping in assessing the risks of CO 2 storage in geological reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Remote Sensing Detection of Growing Season Freeze-Induced Defoliation of Montane Quaking Aspen (Populus tremuloides) in Southern Utah, USA

Growing season freeze events pose a threat to quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), leading to canopy defoliation, reduced vigor, and increased mortality, especially for declining montane populations western North America. Detecting the spatial distribution and progression of this damage is challenging due to limited in situ observations in this region. This study represents the first attempt to comprehensively resolve the spatial extent of freeze-induced aspen canopy damage in southern Utah using multispectral remote sensing data. We developed an approach to detect the spatial and temporal dynamics of freeze-damaged aspen stands, focusing on a freeze event from 8–9 June 2020 in southern Utah. By integrating medium- (~250 to 500 m) and high-resolution (~10 m) satellite data, we employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to compare post-freeze conditions with historical norms and pre-freeze conditions. Our analysis revealed NDVI reductions of 0.10 to 0.40 from pre-freeze values and a second flush recovery. We introduced a pixel-based method to evaluate freeze vulnerability, establishing a strong correlation (R values 0.78 to 0.82) between the onset of the first flush (NDVI > 0.50) and the accumulation of 100 growing degree days (GDD). These methods support the potential for retrospective assessments, proactive forest monitoring, and forecasting future risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gut microbiome dynamics and associations with mortality in critically ill patients

Abstract Background Critical illness and care within the intensive care unit (ICU) leads to profound changes in the composition of the gut microbiome. The impact of such changes on the patients and their subsequent disease course remains uncertain. We hypothesized that specific changes in the gut microbiome would be more harmful than others, leading to increased mortality in critically ill patients. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of critically ill adults in the ICU. We obtained rectal swabs from 52 patients and assessed the composition the gut microbiome using 16 S rRNA gene sequencing. We followed patients throughout their ICU course and evaluated their mortality rate at 28 days following admission to the ICU. We used selbal, a machine learning method, to identify the balance of microbial taxa most closely associated with 28-day mortality. Results We found that a proportional ratio of four taxa could be used to distinguish patients with a higher risk of mortality from patients with a lower risk of mortality (p = .02). We named this binarized ratio our microbiome mortality index (MMI). Patients with a high MMI had a higher 28-day mortality compared to those with a low MMI (hazard ratio, 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–4.3), and remained significant after adjustment for other ICU mortality predictors, including the presence of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score (hazard ratio, 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.4–4.7). High mortality was driven by taxa from theAnaerococcus(genus) andEnterobacteriaceae(family), while lower mortality was driven byParasutterellaandCampylobacter(genera). Conclusions Dysbiosis in the gut of critically ill patients is an independent risk factor for increased mortality at 28 days after adjustment for clinically significant confounders. Gut dysbiosis may represent a potential therapeutic target for future ICU interventions.

Gastroenterology & Hepatology↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability

This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.

petrochemicals↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital Twin for Optimizing Real-time Economy of the Integrated Energy Systems

Economic and safe operation of integrated energy systems (IES) requires real-time optimization (RTO) of the control and actions conducted on each system component. In this regard, digital twins (DTs), which consist of a physical system, a virtual system, and the data communication that occurs between the two, are essential for effective RTO. Through the data warehouse, the virtual system is constantly updated with real-time data from the physical system, and functions as the model in the optimization framework. The reduced-order model of the dynamic process model in the virtual system is used in the optimization framework. The optimization results are then returned, via the data warehouse, as control actions to the physical system. This work demonstrates the software capabilities of DT assets for an IES in the context of preparing a DT for an experimental system comprised of Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Thermal Energy Delivery System and battery system. For the virtual demonstration, the DTs encompass (1) a physical system, including the Modelica models of the Thermal Energy Delivery System and the battery system; (2) virtual optimization via the Optimization of Real-Time Capacity Allocation (ORCA) platform; and (3) the open-source data warehouse software DeepLynx. This work assesses the performance of ORCA, which utilizes a reduced-order model built using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and trained on the Modelica models and real-time data pipeline through the graph database hosted in DeepLynx. The proposed optimization workflow will be an RTO model based on DTs and the data they generate.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing time-resolved x-ray diffraction diagnostics at the National Ignition Facility (invited)

As part of a program to measure phase transition timescales in materials under dynamic compression, we have designed new x-ray imaging diagnostics to record multiple x-ray diffraction measurements during a single laser-driven experiment. Our design places several ns-gated hybrid CMOS (hCMOS) sensors within a few cm of a laser-driven target. The sensors must be protected from an extremely harsh environment, including debris, electromagnetic pulses, and unconverted laser light. Another key challenge is reducing the x-ray background relative to the faint diffraction signal. Building on the success of our predecessor (Target Diffraction In Situ), we implemented a staged approach to platform development. First, we built a demonstration diagnostic (Gated Diffraction Development Diagnostic) with two hCMOS sensors to confirm we could adequately protect them from the harsh environment and also acquire acceptable diffraction data. This allowed the team to quickly assess the risks and address the most significant challenges. Here, we also collected scientifically useful data during development. Leveraging what we learned, we recently developed a much more ambitious instrument (Flexible Imaging Diffraction Diagnostic for Laser Experiments) that can field up to eight hCMOS sensors in a flexible geometry and participate in back-to-back shots at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The design also allows for future iterations, such as faster hCMOS sensors and an embedded x-ray streak camera. The enhanced capabilities of the new instrument required a much more complex design, and the unexpected issues encountered on the first few shots at NIF remind us that complexity has consequences. Our progress in addressing these challenges is described herein, as is our current focus on improving data quality by reducing x-ray background and quantifying the uncertainties of our diffraction measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Templates for Risk Informed Assurance with Curvature Embeddings (TRACE)

We investigate recovery of geometric structure from networks embedded in manifolds with spatially varying curvature, extending the constant-curvature framework of Lubold et al. (2023). Our work supports cascade risk assessment in critical infrastructure through the Templates for Risk-informed Assurance with Curvature Embeddings (TRACE) framework. Simulations on a bi-modal Gaussian surface show that constant-curvature methods yield weighted averages shaped by clique patterns, while hierarchical clustering identifies distinct regimes. Localized estimation, however, reveals boundary contamination in transitional regions. To address heterogeneity, we develop distance metrics for graphs with edge and node features, proving their metric validity, and validate them via deterministic graph generation from canonical tilings. We further propose a diffusion-based anomaly detection approach that treats networks as glued manifolds, using curvature discontinuities to detect structural anomalies. Employing the carré-du-champ operator and scalar curvature, we achieve robust anomaly discrimination, demonstrated on the Singapore Water Treatment (SWaT) dataset with joint network-traffic and sensor features. Integration with TRACE reveals how curvature shapes cascade dynamics: positive curvature impedes, while negative curvature accelerates propagation. This geometric perspective provides interpretable risk metrics and visualization tools for critical infrastructure managers. While full validation remains ongoing, our contributions establish a rigorous foundation for geometric analysis of network resilience and cascade vulnerability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Active High Assurance Authentication Protocol (AHAAP)

The AHAAP Maturation Project involves maturation and evaluation of a patented zero-trust tamper-resistant high-assurance session-less dynamic and active device authentication protocol that simultaneously authenticates identity and provides integrity verification in a single step, substantially reducing the risk of cyberattack, and eliminating the need for costly and complex conventional communication security systems requirements (i.e., cryptography, Public Key Infrastructure (PKI), and key management). These cybersecurity attributes of the technology must be preserved when applying the technology to different cybersecurity solutions, including Command & Control (C&C), Over-the-Air (OTA) update, Common Access Card (CAC), and distributed energy resource (DER) implementations, among others. The technology research objective is to test and verify that the cybersecurity attributes of the technology are not degraded in different cybersecurity applications. The primary technology development objective is to build minimum viable products to demonstrate the technology addresses today’s cybersecurity threats so that prospective investors, strategic partners, regulatory agencies, and commercial customers can interact with and assess the protection assured by the technology. The AHAAP Maturation Project goal is to develop, test, and validate one or more AHAAP implementations. The AHAAP Maturation Project tasks are: (i) engineer AHAAP implementation software, (ii) build a functional prototype that implements the AHAAP software for demonstration, testing, analysis, and evaluation purposes, and (iii) generate a report detailing the results of the AHAAP C&C software and hardware implementation. The final project deliverables are: (i) AHAAP software implementation and prototype, (ii) a report from Sandia National Laboratories detailing the results of the AHAAP implementations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A mechanistic model of a PWR-based nuclear power plant in response to external hazard-induced station blackout accidents

Natural hazard-induced nuclear accidents, such as the Fukushima Daiichi Accident that occurred in Japan in 2011, have significantly increased reactor safety studies in understanding nuclear power plant (NPP) responses to external hazard events such as earthquakes and floods. Natural hazards could cause the loss of offsite power in nuclear power plants, potentially leading to a Station Blackout (SBO) accident that significantly contributes to the overall risk of nuclear power plant accidents. Despite the fact that extensive research has been conducted on the station blackout accident for nuclear power plant, further understanding of these events is needed, particularly in the context of the dynamic nature of external hazards such as external flooding. This paper estimates the progression of station blackout events for a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) in response to external flooding events. The original RELAP5-3D model of the Westinghouse four-loop design pressurized water reactor was adopted and modified to simulate the external flood-induced station blackout accident, including the short-term and long-term station blackout scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of long-term station blackout, examining reactor operation times and analyzing key parameters over time, was also conducted in this work. The results of the analyses, especially the critical timing parameters of key event sequences, provide useful insights about the time during the external flooding event, which is important for plant operators to make timely decisions to prevent potential core damage. This paper represents significant progress toward developing an integrated risk assessment framework for further identifying and assessing the effects of the critical sources of uncertainties of nuclear power plant under external hazard-induced events.

Liu, Tao↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Dynamics and Lithium Plating Detection in High‐Power Li‐Ion Batteries for eVTOL Applications

The rapid electrification of aerial transportation is driving the need for high‐performance Li‐ion batteries that can operate reliably under stringent thermal and safety constraints. The unique mission profile of electric Vertical Take‐off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft necessitates a focused investigation into the thermal behavior and safety characteristics of these batteries. Here, in this study, operando isothermal microcalorimetry is employed to examine the thermal evolution of Li‐ion batteries under cycling conditions representative of eVTOL operations. These findings reveal that high‐power discharge events—such as those during take‐off and landing—shift the thermal response toward exothermic behavior, in contrast to the typically endothermic response expected under near‐equilibrium cycling conditions. Additionally, the results suggest that advanced electrolyte formulations may help suppress excess heat generation, thereby improving battery safety. Notably, the calorimetric results exhibit a distinct thermal signature associated with lithium plating, offering a potential diagnostic for detecting Li plating during eVTOL operation. Overall, this study demonstrates the utility of isothermal microcalorimetry as a valuable tool for assessing thermal risks in Li‐ion batteries for eVTOL applications, and highlights the importance of targeted design strategies to mitigate safety hazards during high‐power demand scenarios.

Li plating↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Robust Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

In order to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are moving from corrective and periodic maintenance to predictive maintenance strategies. Such transition requires changes on the data that needs to be retrieved and on the type of decision processes to be employed. Advanced monitoring and data analysis technologies are essential to support predictive strategies. They can in fact provide precise information about health of a component, track its degradation trends, and provide information of its expected failure time. With such information, maintenance operations for a component can be performed right before its expected failure time. This dynamic context of O&M operations requires new methods to analyze data, propagate component health information from the component to the system level, and optimize plant resources. In this respect, the risk informed asset management (RIAM) project has been tasked to develop and test this new class of methods into a risk analytics toolset. This toolset consists of data analytics tools coupled with reliability methods designed to manage plant assets and performances in a predictive maintenance context. This report shows the latest improvements on such development and the initial testing of our methods on the three main research areas that the RIAM project is focusing on. These areas are the following: equipment reliability data analytics, system reliability modeling, and plant resources optimization methods. We show how the methods developed in these areas can support predictive maintenance strategies by: 1) analyzing equipment reliability data (either in numeric and textual form), 2) assessing component and system health through an innovative margin-based reliability approach, and 3) identifying the most critical components and set optimal maintenance schedule based on plant economic and operational constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Manganese: The overlooked contaminant in the world largest mine tailings dam collapse

Manganese (Mn) is an abundant element in terrestrial and coastal ecosystems and an essential micronutrient in the metabolic processes of plants and animals. Mn is generally not considered a potentially toxic element due to its low content in both soil and water. However, in coastal ecosystems, the Mn dynamic (commonly associated with the Fe cycle) is mostly controlled by redox processes. Here, we assessed the potential contamination of the Rio Doce estuary (SE Brazil) by Mn after the world’s largest mine tailings dam collapse, potentially resulting in chronic exposure to local wildlife and humans. Estuarine soils, water, and fish were collected and analyzed seven days after the arrival of the tailings in 2015 and again two years after the dam collapse in 2017. Using a suite of solid-phase analyses including X-ray absorption spectroscopy and sequential extractions, our results indicated that a large quantity of Mn II arrived in the estuary in 2015 bound to Fe oxyhydroxides. Over time, dissolved Mn and Fe were released from soils when Fe III oxyhydroxides underwent reductive dissolution. Due to seasonal redox oscillations, both Fe and Mn were then re-oxidized to Fe III , Mn III , and Mn IV and re-precipitated as poorly crystalline Fe oxyhydroxides and poorly crystalline Mn oxides. In 2017, redox conditions (Eh: -47 ± 83 mV; pH: 6.7 ± 0.5) favorable to both Fe and Mn reduction led to an increase (~880%) of dissolved Mn (average for 2015: 66 ± 130 μg L -1 ; 2017: 582 ± 626 μg L -1 ) in water and a decrease (~75%, 2015: 547 ± 498 mg kg -1 ; 2017: 135 ± 80 mg kg -1 ) in the total Mn content in soils. The crystalline Fe oxyhydroxides content significantly decreased while the fraction of poorly ordered Fe oxides increased in the soils limiting the role of Fe in Mn retention. The high concentration of dissolved Mn found within the estuary two years after the arrival of mine tailings indicates a possible chronic contamination scenario, which is supported by the high levels of Mn in two species of fish living in the estuary. Our work suggests a high risk to estuarine biota and human health due to the rapid Fe and Mn biogeochemical dynamic within the impacted estuary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. In this work, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality following heat and drought events in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk of exposure. These events underscore the fact that climate change may affect forests with unexpected force in the future. We use the events as examples to highlight current difficulties and challenges for realistically predicting such tree mortality events and the uncertainties about future forest condition. Advances in remote sensing technology and greater availably of high-resolution data, from both field assessments and satellites, are needed to improve both understanding and prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seroprevalence and risk factors for brucellosis amongst livestock and humans in a multi-herd ranch system in Kagera, Tanzania

Background Brucellosis remains a significant health and economic challenge for livestock and humans globally. Despite its public health implications, the factors driving the endemic persistence ofBrucellaat the human-livestock interface in Tanzania remain poorly elucidated. This study aimed to identify the seroprevalence ofBrucellainfection in livestock and humans within a ranching system and determine associated risk factors for disease endemicity. Methods A cross-sectional sero-epidemiological study was conducted in 2023 in Tanzania’s Karagwe District, involving 725 livestock (cattle, goats, sheep) from 10 herds and 112 humans from associated camps. Seroprevalence was assessed using competitive ELISA while epidemiological data were collected via questionnaires. Generalized Linear Models and Contrast Analysis were used to identify risk factors for infection. Results Overall seroprevalence was 34% in livestock and 41% in humans. Goats exhibited the highest prevalence (69.2%), while cattle had the lowest (22.6%). Mixed-species herds (Odds Ratio, OR = 2.96, CI [1.90–4.60]) and small ruminants-only herds (OR = 6.54, CI [3.65–11.72]) showed a significantly higher risk of seropositivity compared to cattle-only herds. Older cattle (OR = 5.23, CI [2.70–10.10]) and lactating females (OR = 2.87, CI [1.78–4.63]) represented significant risks for brucellosis in livestock. In humans, close contact with animals (OR = 7.20, CI [1.97–36.31]) and handling animals during parturition or aborted fetuses (OR = 2.37, CI [1.01–5.58]) were significant risk factors. Notably, no spatial association was found in seroprevalence between herds and nearby human communities. Conclusion The lack of spatial correlation between livestock and human seroprevalence suggests complex transmission dynamics, potentially involving endemic circulation in livestock and human infections from multiple sources of exposure to livestock. This study highlights the need for comprehensive zoonotic risk education and targeted intervention strategies. Further research is crucial to elucidate transmission pathways and improveBrucellainfection control. This includes developing robust methods for identifying infective species and implementing effective strategies to mitigateBrucellainfection in endemic regions.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microbiome dynamics in the congregate environment of U.S. Army Infantry training

Within military training and operational environments, individuals from diverse backgrounds share common spaces, follow structured routines and diets, and engage in physically demanding tasks. While there has been interest in leveraging microbiome features to predict and improve military health and performance, the longitudinal convergence of microbiomes in such constrained environments has not been established. To assess the degree of microbiome convergence, we performed shotgun metagenomic sequencing on swab samples from a military trainee cohort. Samples were taken across four different body sites, three timepoints, and two spatially distinct platoons. We observed evidence of convergence in one platoon, whereby similarity in microbiome composition increased over time, with numerous differentially abundant species. We found no indication of strain transfer between individuals, suggesting that convergence was influenced by external environmental factors, diet, and lifestyle. Microbial shifts observed in the convergence process included a decrease in fungal species, such as Malassezia restricta in nasal cavities, and a decrease in Prevotella species at inguinal regions across time. Shifts in multiple Corynebacterium species were also observed with varying magnitudes depending on the body site. Overall, we provide preliminary evidence of convergence of host microbial communities in military-associated environments that were distinguishable using shotgun metagenomic sequencing approaches. The data presented here on microbiome convergence, dynamics, and stability may inform risk-based mitigation in congregate military settings facilitating development of targeted microbial, dietary, or other interventions to optimize health and performance of military populations.

Biological and medical sciences↗