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At least 217 records · Page 12

In-Time Non-Participant Casualty Risk Assessment to Support Onboard Decision Making for Autonomous Unmanned Aircraft

Numerous operational paradigms, technologies, and missions are emerging as newcomers to the National Airspace System (NAS) develop small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS), personal air vehicles and other Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concepts. As the list of applications expands, maintaining the safety of the current airspace system remains one of the core concerns preventing widespread commercial implementation of these concepts. Further, the risks associated with unmanned aircraft operations themselves have to be recognized and mitigated in a timely manner. Safety-critical risks include, but are not limited to, flight outside of approved airspace, unsafe proximity to people or property, critical system failures, loss-of control, and cyber-security related risks. Instead of reacting to accidents, a set of predictive and data-driven risk monitoring, assessment, and mitigation capabilities are envisioned to help capture and eliminate hazards as these systems become operational. NASA’s System-wide Safety project is performing R&D on such a safety assurance concept. As part of this concept, this paper describes an architecture that continuously monitors a diverse set of onboard and ground-based sources to estimate and predict non-participant casualty risk during flight. Timely identification of the changing nature of this risk can inform decision making processes to mitigate current and impending situations.

Ancel, Ersin↗

Systems Health Management and Decision Making

In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. Discuss research approach to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system as well as subsystem levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. In addition a digital twin concept is being implemented in the framework to demonstrate verification and validation of developed algorithms. Note - This presentation is for the short workshop conducted at the same conference and contains all previously approved and published information.

Systems Health Managent↗

An Optimization Approach to Support Science Decision Making for Lunar Surface Exploration

Introduction: Scientific exploration is one of the three pillars of NASA’s Moon2Mars architecture, with crew surface extra vehicular activities (EVA) serving a critical enabling function. Development of surface EVA operational planning and execution, specifically integrating science and flight control teams (FCT), is currently being explored through analog scenarios. This integration, exercised, for example, through the Joint EVA and Hu-man Surface Mobility Test Team (JETT), allows for science input on EVA activities in near real-time through a Science Evaluation Room (SER), or Arte-mis science backroom, which integrates with the broader FCT through the Science Officer. The SER works within the FCT to support dynamic EVA planning in response to changes in operational constraints as well as science opportunities and re-prioritization, increasing the mission science return and accelerating the accomplishment of the Moon2Mars science objectives. The SER works within the FCT to provide recommendations to traverse execution in near real-time. One challenge is the requirement to deliver SER inputs to the FCT on operationally relevant timelines. Failure to do so may result in suboptimal execution of science exploration EVAs or even loss of key science objectives. To close this gap, we present a network optimization tool to allow the SER to provide rapid input to the FCT in response to changes in operational constraints or science opportunities. Inputs are predicated on approved science objectives, and clear rationale must be provided to the FCT for any requested change. Accordingly, this tool incorporates the Science Traceability Matrix (STM), SER prioritization scheme, and station characterization and action planning with operational constraints such as duration, traverse speed, and distance to maximize science objectives based on SER priorities, consistent with FCT operational requirements. Method: As a proof of concept, we used an existing linear programing software package used to simulate optimal routes through cellular metabolism. We built a Demonstrative Model with three STM objectives and four stations on a region of the Moon. The objectives were given an arbitrary prioritization and mapped to the stations through four possible crew actions. (Figs. 1 and 2). This station to STM mapping is consistent with the method used by the JETT5 Science Team to develop analog surface EVA science planning. We used a grid system with the landing site at the origin and the four stations placed across the positive x,y quadrant. Actions were assigned to each station and the accomplishment of those actions resulted in a numerical “reward” based on the ability of that action to achieve science objectives. The aggregate reward from each individual STM objective contributes to a global score (Science Yield), weighted by its priority. Operational constraints included a requirement to start and end at the landing site, 5 minutes each for initial station characterization and “clean up,” and variable total EVA time, traverse rate (fixed to 0.5 meters per second in our example), and time to perform each action (10, 5, 7, and 15 min for actions 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively). Additional constraints and variables will be added in the future (e.g., sample mass, number of stations, traverse route constraints, illumination). Optimization. We converted the connections (arcs) between these stations (nodes) into a mixed integer linear programming optimization problem (arcs = constraints, nodes = variables) with the objective to maximize Science Yield. For any action, the Science Yield is equal to the relevance of that action to an STM objective [3, 2, and 1 point(s) for High, Med., and Low relevance, respectively], multiplied by the STM Objective Priority [3, 2, and 1 point(s) for High, Med., and Low priority, respectively]. This resulted in a model that computes the optimal station and action combination to maximize the Science Yield. These weightings can be adjusted by the SER as desired. Results: We explored three test cases for the Demonstrative Model. First, we set the maximum EVA duration to 120 minutes and computed the optimal route (Fig. 3A). The model suggested per-forming Actions 1 and 2 at Station P01, followed by Actions 1 and 2 at Station P02, and finally Actions 1 and 3 at Station P04 before returning to the Landing Site. Second, we adjusted the STM Objective Priori-ty order and computed the new optimal route (Fig. 3B). Under this situation, the model suggested per-forming all Actions at Station P02 followed by all Actions at Station P03. The previous test cases were relevant to SER planning activities. Next, we explored providing mid-EVA replanning input to the FCT. Scenario: While executing the Route in Fig. 3A the crew finishes at Station P01 and FCT decides that the EVA needs to finish in 45 minutes back at the Landing Site. FCT asks SER to recommend changes to the plan to accommodate this operation-al change. Using the model and incorporating these new constraints (start at Station P01, max. time of 45 min), the model suggested performing Actions 2 and 4 at Station P03 (Fig. 4), requiring 41 minutes to complete and return to the Landing Site. Interestingly, Station 3 was not part of the original route. Using the model, we determined the EVA would need 66 minutes, instead of 45, in order for the original Station P04 to yield a larger Science Yield than Station P03. The parametrization and simulation was per-formed in less than a minute, demonstrating the operational relevance of the approach. Future Efforts: The results from the Demonstrative Model suggest this tool can accelerate SER decision making on operationally relevant timelines. Use in analog activities, such as JETT5 or follow-ons, which have over a dozen stations for a crew to explore and over a dozen actions per station, will provide needed validation of the utility of this tool for planning EVAs, replanning mid-EVA, or planning follow-on EVAs based on previous results. Further integration with FCT execution monitoring tools may provide additional efficiency gains, al-lowing rapid and iterative exploration of operation-al and science decision space by the FCT and SER.

Science Operations↗

Data Mining for Understanding and Improving Decision-making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions.

Weather↗

Data Mining for Understanding and Impriving Decision-Making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions. The work reported in this paper is focused on ground delay programs. Data mining algorithms have the potential to develop associations between weather patterns and the corresponding ground delay program responses. If successful, they can be used to improve and standardize TFM decision resulting in better predictability of traffic flows on days with reliable weather forecasts. The approach here seeks to develop a set of data mining and machine learning models and apply them to historical archives of weather observations and forecasts and TFM initiatives to determine the extent to which the theory can predict and explain the observed traffic flow behaviors.

data mining↗

Modeling human decision making behavior in supervisory control

An optimal decision control model was developed, which is based primarily on a dynamic programming algorithm which looks at all the available task possibilities, charts an optimal trajectory, and commits itself to do the first step (i.e., follow the optimal trajectory during the next time period), and then iterates the calculation. A Bayesian estimator was included which estimates the tasks which might occur in the immediate future and provides this information to the dynamic programming routine. Preliminary trials comparing the human subject's performance to that of the optimal model show a great similarity, but indicate that the human skips certain movements which require quick change in strategy.

Tulga, M. K.↗

The application of natural science data to land management decision-making

A natural environmental analysis process which allows the decision maker to know the probable consequences of a decision prior to the act is developed. Emphasis is placed on the fit between the natural environment and the social, economic, and functional attributes of man's communities and the transition from nature in its present state to various forms and intensities of development. Applications of the analysis are examined. It is concluded that the analysis is a workable system for land use management.

Williams, D. L.↗

Sequential decision making and stochastic networks

To solve the problems inherent in working with sequential decision processes, it is proposed to (1) utilize concepts of dominance through bounding in the decision processes (DP) formalism to reduce the amount of computing required. This advocates the marrying of DP recursion and Branch-and-Bound methodology; and (2) relax the requirement of strict optimality in the search over the state space, and be content with a tolerable error.

Elmaghraby, S.↗

NASA Earth Observations Informing Renewable Energy Management and Policy Decision Making

The NASA Applied Sciences Program partners with domestic and international governmental organizations, universities, and private entities to improve their decisions and assessments. These improvements are enabled by using the knowledge generated from research resulting from spacecraft observations and model predictions conducted by NASA and providing these as inputs to the decision support and scenario assessment tools used by partner organizations. The Program is divided into eight societal benefit areas, aligned in general with the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) themes. The Climate Application of the Applied Sciences Program has as one of its focuses, efforts to provide for improved decisions and assessments in the areas of renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency, and climate change impacts. The goals of the Applied Sciences Program are aligned with national initiatives such as the U.S. Climate Change Science and Technology Programs and with those of international organizations including the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). Activities within the Program are funded principally through proposals submitted in response to annual solicitations and reviewed by peers.

Eckman, Richard S.↗

Some implications of the technology assessment function for the effective public decision-making process

A preliminary provisional assessment of the prospects for the establishment of an adequate technology assessment function and the implications of the assessment function for the public decision process are presented. Effects of the technology assessment function on each phase of the public decision process and briefly explored. Significant implications during the next decade are projected with respect to the following phases: invention and development of alternative means (technological configurations); evaluation, selection and promotion of preferred courses of action; and modification of statutory scheme or social action program as an outcome of continuing monitoring and appraisal.

Mayo, L. H.↗

Pilot decision making in a computer-aided flight management situation

An experimental representation of a computer-aided multi-task flight management situation has been developed. A computer aiding program was implemented to serve as a back-up decision maker. An experiment was conducted with a balanced design of several subject runs for different workload levels. This was achieved using three levels of subsystem event arrival rates, three levels of control task involvement, and three levels of availability of computer aiding. Experimental results compared quite favorably with those from a computer simulation which employed a queueing model. It was shown that the aiding had enhanced system performance as well as subjective ratings, and that the adaptive aiding policy further reduced subsystem delay.

Chu, Y. Y.↗