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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity-Informed Bayesian Inference for Home PLC Network Models with Unknown Parameters

Bayesian inference is used to calibrate a bottom-up home PLC network model with unknown loads and wires at frequencies up to 30 MHz. A network topology with over 50 parameters is calibrated using global sensitivity analysis and transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC). The sensitivity-informed Bayesian inference computes Sobol indices for each network parameter and applies TMCMC to calibrate the most sensitive parameters for a given network topology. A greedy random search with TMCMC is used to refine the discrete random variables of the network. This results in a model that can accurately compute the transfer function despite noisy training data and a high dimensional parameter space. The model is able to infer some parameters of the network used to produce the training data, and accurately computes the transfer function under extrapolative scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Maximized Information Gain of Next Generation Pulsed Power Using Optimized Design of Z-Machine Experiments

This project develops a Bayesian optimization approach to extracting insights from Z Machine experimental data to determine if and how these insights can be used to extrapolate to a larger facility. The primary goal is to address the scientific challenge of informing how confidently experimental conditions can be predicted on a next generation facility, the design of which requires the reliable extrapolation of current high energy density technologies to regimes yet unobserved, except by costly high-fidelity computational models. Maximizing the use of presently available data and understanding how it informs future endeavors is critically important to enable transformative pulsed power and the science of extreme conditions. We explore a Bayesian optimization approach to experimental design which combines information theory, experimental data, and computational modeling to explore how information gain can be maximized.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Physiologically Based Model of Creatinine Renal Disposition to Integrate Current Knowledge of Systems Parameters and Clinical Observations

Creatinine is the most common clinical biomarker of renal function. As a substrate for renal transporters, its secretion is susceptible to inhibition by drugs, resulting in transient increase in serum creatinine and false impression of damage to kidney. Novel physiologically based models for creatinine were developed here and (dis)qualified in a stepwise manner until consistency with clinical data. Data from a matrix of studies were integrated, including systems data (common to all models), proteomics‐informed in vitro – in vivo extrapolation of all relevant transporter clearances, exogenous administration of creatinine (to estimate endogenous synthesis rate), and inhibition of different renal transporters (11 perpetrator drugs considered for qualification during creatinine model development and verification on independent data sets). The proteomics‐informed bottom‐up approach resulted in the underprediction of creatinine renal secretion. Subsequently, creatinine‐trimethoprim clinical data were used to inform key model parameters in a reverse translation manner, highlighting best practices and challenges for middle‐out optimization of mechanistic models.

Scotcher, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2023

Absolute cross section of the C 12 ( p , γ ) N 13 reaction

Solar neutrino measurements have recently reached a level of sensitivity such that CNO fluxes can now be experimentally determined. While these first measurements are still only sensitive to the higher energy neutrinos resulting from the β + decays of 15 Ο produced by the 14 Ν ⁡( p ,$\gamma$)⁢ 15 O reaction, future measurements will work towards detection of neutrinos from the β + decay of 13 N from the 12 C ⁡( p ,$\gamma$)⁢ 13 N reaction. Here, this paper reports on a recent measurement of the 12 C ⁡( p ,$\gamma$)⁢ 13 N reaction covering a broad laboratory energy range between 1.0 and 2.5 MeV. The measurement was made to better determine the overall normalization of the absolute cross section and to explore the interference effects between the two broad, overlapping resonances at proton energies of 0.460 and 1.689 MeV and the direct capture to the ground state of 13 N in the framework of a multichannel R -matrix analysis. This work takes into account previous radiative capture as well as elastic 12 C ( p , p ) 12 C scattering data, making uncertainty estimations using a Bayesian framework, to determine a reliable extrapolation of the low energy S factor towards the stellar energy range of CNO hydrogen burning. These new experimental results, and a detailed investigation of the past literature data, suggest that the resonant component of the cross section should be 30% lower than previously accepted.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Search for new non-resonant phenomena in high-mass dilepton final states with the ATLAS detector

A search for new physics with non-resonant signals in dielectron and dimuon final states in the mass range above 2 TeV is presented. This is the first search for non-resonant signals in dilepton final states at the LHC to use a background estimate from the data. The data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 , were recorded by the ATLAS experiment in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider. The benchmark signal signature is a two-quark and two-lepton contact interaction, which would enhance the dilepton event rate at the TeV mass scale. To model the contribution from background processes a functional form is fit to the dilepton invariant-mass spectra in data in a mass region below the region of interest. It is then extrapolated to a high-mass signal region to obtain the expected background there. No significant deviation from the expected background is observed in the data. Upper limits at 95% CL on the number of events and the visible cross-section times branching fraction for processes involving new physics are provided. Observed (expected) 95% CL lower limits on the contact interaction energy scale reach 35.8 (37.6) TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Decadal Dynamics of Wetland Methane Emissions Revealed by Knowledge‐Guided Machine Learning

Measurement of methane fluxes (FCH 4 ) from natural systems, such as wetlands, has lagged far behind carbon dioxide fluxes. Short and fragmented wetland FCH 4 data limit our ability to assess its long-term dynamics and potential climate feedbacks. Extrapolating short-term FCH 4 records to recent decades remains challenging for both process-based models and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches. Here, we develop a knowledge-guided ML framework that integrates eddy covariance (EC) FCH 4 observations, field warming experiments, and biogeochemical knowledge to reconstruct the long-term FCH 4 budgets and trends. Focusing on the 11 longest EC monitoring sites in the AmeriFlux network, we found considerable variability in multi-decadal trends of wetland FCH 4 , with increases up to 14% per decade from 2000 to 2024. We also found that the strength of these increasing trends declines from high to low latitudes, highlighting the vulnerability of northern wetlands. This work presents novel and robust reconstructions of long-term wetland FCH 4 , offering critical benchmark datasets for bottom-up ecosystem models and advancing fundamental understanding of wetland biogeochemistry.

AmeriFlux site↗
DOE OSTI2020

We Just Want to Pump…You Up! Forecasting Grid-Connected Heat Pump Water Heater Energy Savings and Load Shifting Potential for the Southeast U.S.

Heat pump water heaters (HPWH) can achieve energy savings of 60-70% compared to conventional electric-resistance water heaters. However, even with a favorable simple payback period within the typical product lifetime, HPWHs make up only 1% of all electric water heaters sold in the residential sector. Market adoption is challenged, in part, by the lack of effective energy efficiency programs in the U.S. region with the greatest amount of residential electric water heaters. The recent integration of connected functionality into HPWHs offers the capability to shift load without undue negative impact on customers. This capability can provide value to utilities with peak load constraints, motivating them to promote HPWHs for the first time. This paper will present a methodology to forecast connected HPWH energy use and extrapolate load shifting potential for the Southeast U.S. region. The methodology leverages data from a robust connected HPWH field study conducted in the Pacific Northwest. A coefficient of performance (COP) relationship for HPWHs was developed using ambient and inlet water temperature data to forecast HPWH performance on a month-by-month basis. Using the forecasted COP, HPWH operating hours were calculated for meeting load, which serve as the proxy to extrapolate load shifting potential from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast. As a use case, analytical results are presented for a specific utility. This methodology, in combination with market analysis, facilitates the development of customized energy savings and load shifting forecasts to understand the potential impacts of launching connected HPWH programs in specific utility service territories.

heat pump water heater, energy savings, load shift↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Design Under Uncertainty in Quantum Error Mitigation

Error mitigation techniques are crucial to achieving near-term quantum advantage. Classical postprocessing of quantum computation outcomes is a popular approach for error mitigation, which includes methods, such as zero noise extrapolation, virtual distillation, and learning-based error mitigation. However, these techniques have limitations due to the propagation of uncertainty resulting from the finite shot number of a quantum measurement. In this work, we introduce general and unbiased methods for quantifying the uncertainty and error of error-mitigated observables based on the strategic sampling of error mitigation outcomes. We then extend our approach to demonstrate the optimization of performance and robustness of error mitigation under uncertainty. To illustrate our methods, we apply them to zero noise extrapolation and Clifford date regression in the ground state of the XY model simulated using depolarizing and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Toronto noise models, respectively. In particular, we optimize the choice of noise levels and the allocation of shots for zero noise extrapolation and the distribution of the training circuits for Clifford data regression. While our methods are readily applicable to any postprocessing-based error mitigation approach, in practice they must not be prohibitively expensive—even though they perform optimizations of the error mitigation hyperparameters requiring sampling of a statistical distribution of error mitigation outcomes. By leveraging surrogate-based optimization, we show that our methods can efficiently perform optimal design for a zero noise extrapolation implementation. We then further demonstrate the transferability of learned zero noise extrapolation hyperparameters to other similar circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

How accurate is a machine learning-based wind speed extrapolation under a round-robin approach?

As the size of commercial wind turbines keeps increasing, having accurate ways to vertically extrapolate wind speed is essential to obtain a precise characterization of the wind resource for wind energy production. Recently, machine learning has been proposed and applied to extrapolate wind speed to hub heights. However, previous studies trained and tested the machine learning methods at the same site, giving them an unfair advantage over the conventional extrapolation techniques, which are instead more universal. Here, we use data from four sites in Oklahoma to test a round-robin validation approach for machine learning, under which we train a random forest at a site, and test it at a different site, where the model has no prior knowledge of the wind resource. We quantify how the accuracy of this technique varies with distance from the training site, and we find that it outperforms conventional techniques for wind extrapolation at all the considered spatial separations. We then assess how the accuracy of the machine-learning based approach varies when it is used to predict wind speed in a wind farm far wake. Finally, we explore as case study the performance of the random forest in extrapolating winds during a low-level jet event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variations to the z-Expansion of the Form Factor Describing the Decay of B Mesons

We examine the decay rate of the particle decay B 0 → D -ℓ +νℓ using data collected from the Belle Collaboration. We studied three parameterizations of the form factor which describe the differential decay rate, the Caprini, Lellouch, and Neubert (CLN) parametrization, the Boyd, Grinstein, and Lebed (BGL) parametrization, and the Bourrely, Caprini, and Lellouch (BCL) parameterization. The form factor is a function of the hadronic recoil variable w, and each parameterization contains unique free parameters which are the focus of this work. We test the extrapolations of the form factor by fitting many different subsets of the low w data and then compare the prediction of the fit to the high w data using a χ 2 -metric. By only fitting the low w data we are able to examine the stability of extrapolations which will be informative for lattice simulations.

Simons, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of Pressure on NO x Entitlement and Reaction Timescales in a Premixed Axial Jet-In-Crossflow

This paper investigates the pressure dependency of a lean premixed jet injected into a lean vitiated crossflow with an experimentally verified detailed chemistry computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model and 53 species considered. Experimental data were taken in an axially staged combustor with an optically accessible test section, allowing the use of particle image velocimetry (PIV) and CH* chemiluminescence techniques as well as point measurement of species concentration, temperature, and pressure. The experimental data cases at one, three, and five atmospheres were selected to describe the flame stabilization dependency on pressure and gain the required knowledge for an extrapolation to engine condition. Simulated exit nitrogen oxide levels were validated with experimental emission data, and a global emission trend for the NO reduction at elevated pressure and constant turbine inlet temperature level was defined. The nitrogen oxide benefit at elevated operating pressure was justified with the significantly smaller flame surface area: the analysis of the simulated spanwise and top-view profiles showed a relatively short receded core flame with nitrogen oxide production in the center at high pressure relative to a longer and larger shear layer flame at atmospheric condition that produced NO toward the inner and outer side of the flame. Furthermore, decomposition of the Damköhler number revealed the strong influence of the reaction timescales with higher reaction rates at elevated pressure, along with a moderate influence of the turbulent timescales, showing higher turbulence intensity in the lee-side recirculation zone at lower pressure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Universal diamond edge Raman scale to 0.5 terapascal and implications for the metallization of hydrogen

The recent progress in generating static pressures up to terapascal values opens opportunities for studying novel materials with unusual properties, such as metallization of hydrogen and high-temperature superconductivity. However, an evaluation of pressure above ~0.3 terapascal is a challenge. We report a universal high-pressure scale up to ~0.5 terapascal, which is based on the shift of the Raman edge of stressed diamond anvils correlated with the equation of state of Au and does not require an additional pressure sensor. According to the new scale, the pressure values are substantially lower by 20% at ~0.5 terapascal compared to the extrapolation of the existing scales. We compare the available data of H 2 at the highest static pressures. We show that the onset of the proposed metallization of molecular hydrogen reported by different groups is consistent when corrected with the new scale and can be compared with various theoretical predictions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring toroidal anvil profiles for larger sample volumes above 4 Mbar

Abstract With the advent of toroidal and double-stage diamond anvil cells (DACs), pressures between 4 and 10 Mbar can be achieved under static compression, however, the ability to explore diverse sample assemblies is limited on these micron-scale anvils. Adapting the toroidal DAC to support larger sample volumes offers expanded capabilities in physics, chemistry, and planetary science: including, characterizing materials in soft pressure media to multi-megabar pressures, synthesizing novel phases, and probing planetary assemblages at the interior pressures and temperatures of super-Earths and sub-Neptunes. Here we have continued the exploration of larger toroidal DAC profiles by iteratively testing various torus and shoulder depths with central culet diameters in the 30–50 µm range. We present a 30 µm culet profile that reached a maximum pressure of 414(1) GPa based on a Pt scale. The 300 K equations of state fit to our P–V data collected on gold and rhenium are compatible with extrapolated hydrostatic equations of state within 1% up to 4 Mbar. This work validates the performance of these large-culet toroidal anvils to > 4 Mbar and provides a promising foundation to develop toroidal DACs for diverse sample loading and laser heating.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling, analysis, and code/data validation of DIII-D tokamak divertor experiments on ELM and non-ELM plasma tungsten sputtering erosion

Abstract We analyzed recent DIII-D tokamak tungsten divertor probe experiments using advanced, coupled, sputter erosion/redeposition, plasma, and surface response code packages. Modeling is done for ELMing H-mode, and L-mode plasmas, impinging on various size tungsten deposits on Divertor Material Evaluation System (DiMES) carbon probes. The simulations compute 3D, full kinetic, sub-gyromotion, impurity sputtering and transport, including changes in tungsten surface composition and response due to mixed deuterium and carbon ions irradiation. Per our analysis, ELM (edge localized mode) plasma sputtering in DIII-D mostly involves free-streaming high energy (∼500–1000 eV) D + and C +6 ions, with high near-surface plasma density. L-Mode sputtering is due to impurity sputtering (C, W) only, with lower density. All cases show complete redeposition of tungsten on the divertor, with significant redeposition on the tungsten spots themselves, and low self-sputtering. Comparison of ELM plasma gross tungsten erosion simulation results with in-situ spectroscopic data is good, as are code/data comparisons of net erosion using post-exposure Rutherford backscattering (RBS) data for the L-mode probes. The analysis, extrapolated to a full tungsten divertor, implies low net erosion and negligible plasma contamination from sputtering. These results support the use of high-Z plasma facing surfaces in ITER and beyond.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phosphorus alleviation of nitrogen‐suppressed methane sink in global grasslands

Abstract Grassland ecosystems account for more than 10% of the global CH 4 sink in soils. A 4‐year field experiment found that addition of P alone did not affect CH 4 uptake and experimental addition of N alone significantly suppressed CH 4 uptake, whereas concurrent N and P additions suppressed CH 4 uptake to a lesser degree. A meta‐analysis including 382 data points in global grasslands corroborated these findings. Global extrapolation with an empirical modelling approach estimated that contemporary N addition suppresses CH 4 sink in global grassland by 11.4% and concurrent N and P deposition alleviates this suppression to 5.8%. The P alleviation of N‐suppressed CH 4 sink is primarily attributed to substrate competition, defined as the competition between ammonium and CH 4 for the methane mono‐oxygenase enzyme. The N and P impacts on CH 4 uptake indicate that projected increases in N and P depositions might substantially affect CH 4 uptake and alter the global CH 4 cycle.

Zhang, Lihua↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable Reduced Order Model with Discontinuous Galerkin Domain Decomposition

scaleupROM is a scalable, physics-constrained reduced order model (ROM). It aims to provide robust, accelerated physics predictions at extrapolated scales, based on the small, component-level data. This is implemented by combining projection-based ROM with discontinuous Galerkin domain decomposition, in the framework of MFEM and libROM. It currently supports the Poisson equation and Stokes flow equation, and more work is in progress toward general, nonlinear physics systems.

Chung, Seung Whan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Controlling extrapolations of nuclear properties with feature selection

Predictions of nuclear properties far from measured data are inherently inaccurate because of uncertainties in our knowledge of nuclear forces and in our treatment of quantum many-body effects in strongly-interacting systems. While the model bias can be directly calculated when experimental data is available, only an estimate can be made in the absence of such measurements. Current approaches to compute the estimated bias quickly lose predictive power when their input variables are taken far from the training region, resulting in uncontrolled uncertainties in applications such as nucleosynthesis simulations. In this letter, we present a novel technique to identify the input variables of machine learning algorithms that can provide robust estimates of model bias. Our process is based on selecting input variables, or features, based on their probability distribution functions across the entire nuclear chart. We illustrate our approach on the problem of quantifying the model bias in nuclear binding energies calculated with Density Functional Theory (DFT). We prove that building model biases with only Z and N as features leads to highly unreliable extrapolations. Conversely, we show that proper feature selection can systematically improve theoretical predictions without increasing uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗