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At least 217 records · Page 12

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimal Strategies for Hybrid Battery‐Storage Systems Design

As stationary hybrid energy‐storage systems (HESS) for power systems applications have recently drawn interest due to their enhanced performance and decreasing cost, developing systematic approaches for HESS design while considering controls is gaining traction. Herein, a method is presented to optimally design hybrid battery storage by proposing a mathematical modeling framework, formulated as a mixed integer linear programming model. The optimization is capable of handling multiple subsystems of batteries, considering their economic and technological performance. Decisions involve sizing of the batteries, optimal temporal and strategic dispatch to end uses, and energy sources for charging each battery. The applicability of the model is tested on four case studies for three battery chemistries representing distinct objectives: high‐power, high‐energy, and second life. Compared to traditionally designed battery storage with a homogeneous battery, optimally designed hybrid systems can save 12%–26% of system costs, depending on the nature of the dispatch profile. Findings point to design preference toward the second life battery supplemented with some high‐power or high‐energy battery capacity, or both. With the utilized electricity price structure, customers can experience approximately 10%–35% reduction in their bills.

Koleva, Mariya↗

Multi-stage charging and discharging of electric vehicle fleets

Fleets of electric vehicles will likely shift electricity demand, and the effect of upstream charging emissions will come from generation sources that are dispatched in response. This study proposes a multi-stage charging and discharging problem to translate low-cost energy transactions into vehicle dispatch decisions. A day-ahead charging optimization problem minimizes electricity purchases and marginal emissions damages, with energy transactions becoming targets in an optimization-based dispatch strategy for an on-demand shared autonomous electric vehicle (SAEV) fleet. The framework was tested for Austin, Texas, using an agent-based simulator. Fleets can schedule charging to lower daily power costs (averaging 15.5% or $\$0.79$/day/SAEV) while reducing health damages from generation-related pollution (2.8% or $\$0.43$/day/SAEV). Finally, fleet managers can increase profits ($\$8$ per SAEV per day) by adopting a multi-stage charging and discharging strategy that can serve more passengers per day than price-agnostic dispatch strategies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Distribution Feeder-Scale Fast Frequency Response via Optimal Coordination of Net-load Resources Part II: Large-Scale Demonstration

This work is the second of a two-part series in which we develop and experimentally demonstrate a hierarchical control solution for optimally coordinating thousands of deferrable loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) to provide fast frequency response (FFR) from an entire distribution feeder. In Part I, we developed and proved practical algorithms for fast, cost-based optimal dispatch and for determining the optimal amount of headroom to operate solar inverters with to support FFR dispatch while minimizing opportunity cost. Simulation results in Part I demonstrated the advantages of the hierarchical dispatch approach in being able to maintain fast solution times needed for FFR even when the problem size increases. In Part II, we implement the algorithms developed in Part I in a novel, large-scale power hardware-in-the-loop experiment including embedded controllers and more than 100 powered appliance loads and DER connected to a simulated real-world distribution system with more than 10,000 controlled devices. Experimental results from multiple scenarios confirm that the optimal FFR dispatch approach scales well and can optimally coordinate more than 10,000 net-load resources across a distribution network while achieving hardware response times within 500 ms, which is not possible using state-of-the-art optimal coordination approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

GT Flex: A Coordinated Multi-Building Pilot Study

Buildings are a significant and untapped resource for providing utility electric grid services. Recent studies have estimated that buildings could reduce the peak demand on the electric grid in the U.S. by almost 25% through effective combinations of energy efficiency (EE) measures and load flexibility strategies (Langevin et al. 2021). The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has established a goal to triple energy efficiency and demand flexibility in both residential and commercial sections by 2030 compared to 2020 levels (Satchwell et al. 2021). Such findings place buildings alongside electric vehicles, photovoltaics, electric batteries, and other distributed energy resources (DERs) as primary technologies needed for supporting high renewable energy generation grids. Coordinating and optimizing multiple buildings and other DERs is more beneficial and valuable when compared with individual buildings and DERs operating as siloed resources, uncoordinated with others (Olgyay et al. 2020). A pilot study at the Georgia Institute of Technology (GIT) was conducted to evaluate value propositions of a multi-building scale project seeking carbon reduction, energy efficiency and grid-interactive capabilities, by demonstrating the means by which stakeholders can determine the technical and financial merits of grid-interactivity and energy efficiency technologies coordinated across multiple assets. The study focused on analyzing technical feasibility of deploying thermal load flexibility strategies at the multi-building scale, coordinated to not exceed existing infrastructure constraints at the pilot site. Results show that campus can provide 3-3.5 MW of potential load shed over a 4-hour event window through coordinated dispatch of thermal cooling load flexibility without exceeding existing infrastructure capacities. Under future high renewable scenarios, this thermal flexibility resource is also valuable when coordinated to reduce curtailment of intermittent renewables. Economic analyses were performed to effectively communicate various value propositions of grid-interactive and efficient building (GEB) thermal flexibility strategies. Load flexibility presents a financial value proposition to the campus today. By conducting rationalized, coordinated dispatch in response to real time price (RTP) fluctuations, the campus can benefit materially from daily price arbitrage. The RTP signal acts as an aggregating mechanism between the utility and customer to call on demand flexibility resources, with a large portion of the benefit deriving from a relatively small number of days. Realizing and maximizing this benefit with thermal load flexibility requires careful attention to the timing of pricing signals and parameterization of dispatch to overcome efficiency penalties. Grid value and signals are expected to evolve over time, and thermal load flexibility shows potential to adapt dispatch logic to support intermittent renewable generation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Release a public version of HERON (HERON 2.0) with improved algorithms for the treatment of energy storage

Integrated energy systems (IESs) are essential for decarbonizing electricity and industrial sectors and fully exploiting these systems requires sophisticated planning, scheduling, and dispatching tools to maximize their socio-economic benefits. The Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) is a generic software plugin for the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) to perform stochastic technoeconomic analysis of IES with economic drivers. This report summarizes the updates made to HERON 2.0. Particularly, we demonstrate one of the added features, Function-based Control Mechanics, by comparing a price-based dispatch strategy with the original perfect foresight baselines. Our case studies successfully demonstrate that the model is capable to incorporate artificial control algorithm into the dispatch of IES components. In addition, our results from the price-based strategy indicate that the control strategies of IES components are key to the economic and temporal performance of our model; therefore, more sophisticated dispatch strategies are required to improve the model performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Time dependent supervisory control update with FARM using rolling window

This report describes improvements to the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM) component of the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework for analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM supports the HERON plug-in that solves the power dispatch problem. The solution to the dispatch problem involves economically optimal dispatches that satisfy limits on production variables and their rates of variation (explicit constraints) as well as process variables tied to the service life of equipment (implicit constraints). FARM serves to validate or confirm that a HERON solution for explicit constraints also satisfies the implicit constraints. FARM-alpha was released by Argonne National Laboratory in January 2021 followed by FARM-Beta in January 2022 with the latter providing increased flexibility for the user. In this report, FARM-Gamma, the latest version of the code, is described. The major improvement is the implementation of a system identification algorithm based on the Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control (DMDc) coupled with a “Rolling Window” scheme that allows obtaining linear time-varying state-space models. This feature equips FARM with the most accurate approximation of system dynamics, and it relieves the user from the burden of performing an exhaustive off-line characterization of the dynamics. FARM-Gamma capabilities are assessed by solving the power dispatch problem for a representative IES unit. The simulation times corresponding to the different releases are estimated and compared. These values capture the increasing computational burden of the successively higher fidelity state-space models adopted by FARM-Alpha, FARM-Beta and FARM-Gamma. The code implementation provides significant flexibility, i.e., the user can always select the most suitable version of FARM according to the problem to be solved and the available computational resources. It is anticipated that FARM will play a role in addressing several future IES applications. We outline how it can support the coordinated management and safe operation of a nuclear plant coupled to industrial processes to produce hydrogen and synfuels.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

FARM User Guidance and Instructions

The FARM (Feasible Actuator Range Modifier) module is a component of the RAVEN-based FORCE framework for the analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM aids HERON in the solution of the power dispatch problem by evaluating feasible set-point signals to be issued to the control systems of the different IES unit components. Set-points need to satisfy limits on both production variables (i.e., the variables to be optimized such as the electrical power, etc.) and process variables tied to the service life of equipment (e.g., steam flowrate, vessel pressure, turbine firing temperature, etc.). To enforce all these limits, a two-stage approach is adopted. First, the power dispatcher algorithm in HERON module estimates set-points that meet the constraints on the production variables, e.g., power levels and power ramp rate limits. These constraints are called explicit constraints. Then, if necessary, FARM adjusts these set-points to ensure the respect of the limits on the process variables of interest, given the knowledge of the system dynamics acquired through machine learning algorithms. These constraints are called implicit constraints. From this standpoint, FARM constitutes a bridge between the HERON power dispatcher that adopts a simplified description of the IES unit (low-resolution physics) and the HYBRID high-fidelity models (high-resolution physics). In this report, the general workflow and the software requirements of FARM module are summarized, and the detailed instructions for installing FARM software, running built-in example cases, deriving Linear Parameter-Varying (LPV) state-space models, and using FARM for user-defined power dispatch problems are provided.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FARM supervisory capabilities for thermal energy storage

The FARM (Feasible Actuator Range Modifier) module is a component of the RAVEN-based FORCE framework for the analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM aids HERON in the solution of the power dispatch problem by evaluating feasible set-point signals to be issued to the control systems of the different IES unit components. Set-points need to satisfy limits on both production variables (i.e., the variables to be optimized such as the electrical power, etc.) and process variables tied to the service life of equipment (e.g., steam flowrate, vessel pressure, turbine firing temperature, etc.). To enforce all these limits, a two-stage approach is adopted. First, the power dispatcher algorithm in HERON module estimates set-points that meet the constraints on the production variables, e.g., power levels and power ramp rate limits. These constraints are called explicit constraints. Then, if necessary, FARM adjusts these set-points to ensure the respect of the limits on the process variables of interest, given the knowledge of the system dynamics acquired through machine learning algorithms. These constraints are called implicit constraints. From this standpoint, FARM constitutes a bridge between the HERON power dispatcher that adopts a simplified description of the IES unit (low-resolution physics) and the HYBRID high-fidelity models (high-resolution physics). In this report, an overview of the major capabilities of the latest release of FARM is provided, along with a summary of the tool demonstration campaign conducted at the Dynamic Energy Technology and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) facility. These results assess the performance of the control system architecture embedding FARM both as a Validator of the HERON power dispatcher and as a real time Supervisory control scheme. Additionally, the report outlines the areas that FARM might benefit from, along with proposed solutions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Design and optimization of flexible decoupled high-temperature gas-cooled reactor plants with thermal energy storage

Advanced nuclear power plants are well-positioned for future zero-carbon grids, however, the need for flexible power generation will be required over the traditional emphasis on baseload generation for meeting historical demands. To achieve such flexibility, this work examines viable configurations for coupling nuclear energy production with thermal energy storage. Previous designs on nuclear-thermal energy storage configurations for advanced reactor designs, which utilized reactor steam as the heat source for charging the thermal energy storage, are restricted by the heat diversion ratio and efficiency losses, thus their impacts can be limited. In this context, this study proposes configurations for fully decoupling the nuclear reactor from the power cycle and positioning the storage as an intermediate loop, thereby achieving an unconstrained heat diversion ratio and improved efficiency. Compared with a standard high-temperature gas-cooled reactor’s power cycle, steady-state thermodynamic modeling and dispatch optimizations quantify the benefits of a steam reheat cycle within the fully decoupled thermal energy system to separate the plant cycle from the high-pressure primary side. These benefits are further detailed, compatible with required high-temperature and high-pressure conditions, through (1) open-source dynamic transient models that examine the impact of off-design operation on the systems, (2) the investigation of components design and costing and finally (3) sizing and dispatch optimization. The fully-decoupled design achieves a cycle efficiency of 43.1%, an enhancement over the vendor’s standard efficiency of 42.2% (Xe-100 design). Here, the proposed design offers strengthened physical barriers from the nuclear island as well as superior operational flexibility and power boosting. Dispatch optimization and market analysis reveal that thermal energy storage size is highly dependent on the peak patterns of electricity prices and the minimum generation level constraint imposed on the balance of plant. Evaluation of off-design operation demonstrates that the full decoupling design with the suggested fail-safe control mechanisms ensures a minimal impact on reactor parameters, even during rapid power ramping.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Co-optimization of nuclear reactor flexible power operation and maintenance scheduling

As flexible power operation of nuclear power plants becomes more attractive due to the reduction in fossil-fueled dispatchable generation on energy grids, finding optimal power production strategies that balance revenue generation with operational concerns becomes more complex. This article presents a general framework to aid operators in designing economically optimal long term dispatch strategies for nuclear power plants. The principal novelty is the linking of estimated system remaining useable life (RUL) to strategic operational decisions. It is shown that, depending on the relationship between the fixed costs from maintenance and the associated lost revenue from an outage, it can be economically optimal in the long term to delay a maintenance outage and not perform this alongside refueling. For a given relationship between power ramping and degradation, optimal strategies were found that discouraged load following in some situations while minimizing unnecessary maintenance. It is shown that heavy load following can cause maintenance and refueling outages to diverge due to their inverse relationships with respect to load following, potentially leading to a significant loss in capacity factor. As a result, this general framework can be applied to specific reactor dispatch allowing operators to adapt operational strategies as future grid conditions change.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Examining the Economic Optimality of Automatic Generation Control

The automatic generation control (AGC) system is temporally situated between economic dispatch and synchronous generator dynamics, and its primary role is to regulate frequency within and tie-line flows between control areas. Given appropriate choice of participation factors (feed-forward controller gains that govern the disaggregation of the area-level power requirement to individual generators), the AGC can be engineered to nudge system dynamics toward a steady-state operating point corresponding to economic optimality. This paper establishes necessary and sufficient conditions under which a widely accepted choice of participation factors guarantees the alignment of steady-state synchronous generator outputs with a global minimum of a prototypical economic dispatch problem. In so doing, it resolves several ambiguities and formalizes technical assumptions governing the role of the standard AGC architecture in the context of economic dispatch and steady-state operation. Numerical case studies tailored to a modified version of the New England 39-bus 10-machine test system validate the theoretical results.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Estimating Energy Market Schedules using Historical Price Data

The global climate crisis is expected to reshape the energy generation landscape in the coming decades. Increasing integration of non-dispatchable renewable energy resources into energy infrastructures and markets creates uncertainty as well as new opportunities for flexible energy systems. To conduct proper economic evaluation of flexible energy systems, such as integrated energy systems (IES), advancements in modelling of market interactions, such as bidding, is crucial. This work presents a shortcut algorithm which uses two mixed integer linear programs to compute dispatch schedules (e.g., hourly power production targets) that are constrained by the resource's bid information and characteristics (e.g., minimum up and down times) based on historical locational marginal price (LMP) data. The proposed algorithm is approximately 100 times faster and uses orders of magnitude less data than a full production cost model (PCM). We find the shortcut simulator recapitulates generator dispatch signals for the Prescient PCM with approximately 4% error for the RTS-GMLC test system.

electricity generation↗

The value of hydropower flexibility for electricity system decarbonization

Hydropower is an abundant, dispatchable, clean energy resource that will play an important role in supporting the clean energy transition. In particular, dispatchable hydropower can provide the operational flexibility that will be required in future systems with high variable renewable energy penetrations. However, the theoretical operational flexibility of hydropower can be restricted in practice by various non-power constraints. In this paper, we quantify how increasing the operational flexibility of dispatchable hydropower resources with reservoirs impacts least-cost generation portfolios and supports power system decarbonization. Specifically, we conduct a capacity expansion analysis of a two-zone system: a hydro-dominated region and a neighboring region with aggressive decarbonization targets that are represented by the United States Pacific Northwest and California respectively. We then introduce a quantifiable index for characterizing the operational flexibility of reservoir hydropower and assess how changes in this metric impact the system-optimal generation portfolio. We find that increasing hydropower flexibility leads to more investment in wind generation, less investment in natural gas generation, lower system costs, and lower system emissions. We further demonstrate a substitution effect between the grid services provided by flexible hydropower operation, increased transmission capacity on a congested line, and energy storage resources. Finally, we show that increasing the operational flexibility of hydropower increases the effective load carrying capability of both hydropower and wind resources. This research supports a more nuanced understanding of how hydropower can support electricity system decarbonization and may motivate reassessing the cost-benefit tradeoffs of non-power constraints that restrict operational flexibility.

Capacity expansion modeling↗

Hydropower operation in future power grid with various renewable power integration

Hydropower generation may play an increasingly important role in the power grid under increasing contribution of variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. An improved understanding of the changes to hydropower dispatch under future higher VRE grid conditions reveals research gap that should be informed power grid planning and reservoir water releases policies considering multiple other water uses and varying hydrologic condition. Here this study aims to understand the role of hydropower in a changing power grid by employing a production cost model, PLEXOS, across future power system scenarios, planning horizons, and regions. We explore optimized hydropower dispatch to understand its potential role in minimizing the system cost and renewable curtailment. We also examine the sensitivity of hydropower revenue under various grid scenarios of the Eastern U.S. and hydrology conditions. Results indicate hydropower generation follows net load and compensates for the variability of solar and wind generation. Although energy prices are lower during some periods in the future grid scenarios, there is a potential for higher revenue for hydropower by providing both energy and ancillary services during times of stress. Additionally, hydropower revenue is sensitive to hydrology in the SERC region, which we considered as an example. The feasibility of hydropower dispatching with higher ramps between low and high hourly-capacity factors, as indicated in the optimization model, requires further study to consider other water use and ecology constraints.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗