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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

FY21 Progress Report: SRNL Analysis of ICCWR LCM and WAMS data for Corrosion and Cracking

The development of algorithms for machine learning and data analysis for the 3013 Surveillance Program is a collaborative effort by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and the University of South Carolina (USC). For corrosion detection, Laser Confocal Microscope (LCM) or Wide Area 3D Measurement System (WAMS) data is extracted from large binary files, with software written to convert the data to physical attributes (e.g., height, color and grayscale values; all as functions of a location in a plane projection). A user-friendly Matlab Graphical User Interface (GUI) that reads data from either LCM or WAMS files was developed to integrate input data with software developed for processing and evaluation. The GUI can selectively download binary data, interrogate data attributes, label data, flag significant features, execute Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, output parameters for trained ML algorithms, report ML model accuracy with respect to labeled data, and generate graphical representations for various analyses. Features can be called out by user-specified thresholds, manual labeling or machine learning algorithms when they have been completed. The ability to rapidly label data is important because of the volume of data required for training machine learning algorithms. The GUI has the flexibility to allow addition of improved ML algorithms, methods for data visualization, and statistical computations. Statistical analyses via the GUI include areas of pits within a defined range of pit depths, correlations between Red-Green-Blue (RGB) or grayscale intensity and relative surface height, covariances between values associated with features, and feature histograms. The development of supervised machine learning algorithms, however, has been hindered by a lack of training data. The machine learning algorithms for crack identification are being refined but require improvements to the true positive rate for crack detection. This shortcoming is an artifact of the limited training data currently available, perhaps more so than the structure of the neural networks. At present, the best results are had from a consensus over an ensemble of randomly generated Deep Neural Network (DNN) or Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) algorithms. Although the consensus accuracy method has yielded optimum true positive and true negative rates in excess of 80%, additional validation testing is necessary. In addition to the suite of LCM data that was initially used, and which represents the majority of the work presented in this report, WAMS image data was also reviewed at a preliminary level. The review included a comparison between image resolution and dynamic range for each method. WAMS (ZON file) image data was found to have a pixel pitch of 3.69μm compared to 1 μm for the LCM (vk4 file) data, which implies a lower resolution for the WAMS images. Conversely, the ratio of dynamic range of the WAMS data to the LCM data was approximately 41:20 for height data, suggesting that information from WAMS should more accurately determine the depth of pits. At present, the significance of the greater dynamic range of the WAMS data relative to the LCM data has not yet been evaluated.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of tensor couplings with scalar mixing on covariant energy density functionals

The recent pioneering campaigns conducted by the Lead Radius Experiment (PREX) and the Calcium Radius Experiment (CREX) Collaborations have uncovered major deficiencies in the theoretical description of some fundamental properties of atomic nuclei. Following a recent refinement to the isovector sector of covariant energy density functionals we present here additional improvements to the functional by including both tensor couplings and an isoscalar-isovector mixing term in the scalar sector. Motivated by the distinct surface properties of calcium and lead, we expect that the tensor terms that generate derivative couplings will help break the linear correlation between the neutron skin thickness of these two nuclei. Moreover, the addition of these new terms mitigates most of the problems identified by Reed et al. in describing the properties of both finite nuclei and neutron stars. While significant progress has been made in reconciling the PREX-CREX results without compromising other observables, the final resolution awaits the completion of a proper calibration for this new class of functionals. As a result, we expect that powerful reduced basis methods used recently to create efficient emulators will be essential to accomplish this task.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Tutorial for Generating Correlated Random Samples in the Context of Replica Cross Section Data Used in the Propagation of Uncertainty (Second Edition)

The following sample problem write-ups are designed as a tutorial for generating correlated random samples (e.g., replica multi-group cross section data) for use in propagation of uncertainty problems. These problems were set up and solved in MATLAB, but any programming environment with basic statistical functions can be used to generate similar results. Since linear sample problems were chosen, helpful comparisons to the “sandwich” rule propagation of uncertainty are available and were used.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1995

Latitudinal distribution of black carbon soot in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Black carbon soot from the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere has been systematically collected at latitudes from 90 deg N to 45 deg S. The measured latitudinal distribution of this soot at 10 to 11 km altitude is found to covary with commercial air traffic fuel use, suggesting that aircraft fuel combustion at altitude is the principal source. In addition, at latitudes where the commercial air traffic is high, measured black carbon soot values are high even at 20 km altitude, suggesting that aircraft-generated soot injected just above the tropopause may be transported to higher altitudes. During the volcanically influenced period in which these samples were collected, the number abundances, total mass, and calculated total surface area of black carbon soot are 2-3 orders of magnitude lower than similar measures of sulfuric acid aerosol. During volcanically quiescent periods, the calculated total surface area of black carbon soot aerosol is of the same order of magnitude as that of the background sulfuric acid aerosol. It appears from this comparison that black carbon soot is only capable of influencing lower stratosphere or upper troposphere chemistry during periods when the aerosol budget is not dominated by volcanic activity. It remains to determine the extent to which black carbon soot particles act as nuclei for sulfuric acid aerosol formation. However, mass balance calculations suggest that aircraft soot injected at altitude does not represent a significant source of condensation nuclei for sulfuric acid aerosols.

Blake, David F.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variance-Reduced Accelerated First-Order Methods: Central Limit Theorems and Confidence Statements

In this paper, we consider a strongly convex stochastic optimization problem and propose three classes of variable sample-size stochastic first-order methods: (i) the standard stochastic gradient descent method, (ii) its accelerated variant, and (iii) the stochastic heavy-ball method. In each scheme, the exact gradients are approximated by averaging across an increasing batch size of sampled gradients. We prove that when the sample size increases at a geometric rate, the generated estimates converge in mean to the optimal solution at an analogous geometric rate for schemes (i)–(iii). Based on this result, we provide central limit statements, whereby it is shown that the rescaled estimation errors converge in distribution to a normal distribution with the associated covariance matrix dependent on the Hessian matrix, the covariance of the gradient noise, and the step length. If the sample size increases at a polynomial rate, we show that the estimation errors decay at a corresponding polynomial rate and establish the associated central limit theorems (CLTs). Under certain conditions, we discuss how both the algorithms and the associated limit theorems may be extended to constrained and nonsmooth regimes. As a result, we provide an avenue to construct confidence regions for the optimal solution based on the established CLTs and test the theoretical findings on a stochastic parameter estimation problem.

Lei, Jinlong↗
NASA NTRS1992

The processing of the Viking Orbiter range data and its contribution to Mars gravity solutions

The processing of Doppler data has been the primary method for deriving models of the Mars gravity field. Since the Mariner 9 and Viking spacecraft were placed in orbit about Mars, many models from degree and order 6 to degree and order 50 have been developed. However, during the Viking mission, some 26,000 range measurements to the two Viking Orbiters were also obtained. These data have not previously been used in the derivation of Mars gravity models. A portion of these range data have been processed simultaneously with the Doppler data. Normal equations were generated for both sets of data and were used to create two solutions complete to degree and order 30: a nominal solution including both the range and the Doppler data (MGM-R100), and another solution including only the Doppler data (MGM-R101). Tests with the covariances of these solutions, as well as with orbit overlap tests indicate that the interplanetary range data can be used to improve the modeling of the Mars gravity field.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Correlation, Cost Risk, and Geometry

The geometric viewpoint identifies the choice of a correlation matrix for the simulation of cost risk with the pairwise choice of data vectors corresponding to the parameters used to obtain cost risk. The correlation coefficient is the cosine of the angle between the data vectors after translation to an origin at the mean and normalization for magnitude. Thus correlation is equivalent to expressing the data in terms of a non orthogonal basis. To understand the many resulting phenomena requires the use of the tensor concept of raising the index to transform the measured and observed covariant components into contravariant components before vector addition can be applied. The geometric viewpoint also demonstrates that correlation and covariance are geometric properties, as opposed to purely statistical properties, of the variates. Thus, variates from different distributions may be correlated, as desired, after selection from independent distributions. By determining the principal components of the correlation matrix, variates with the desired mean, magnitude, and correlation can be generated through linear transforms which include the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix. The conversion of the data to a non orthogonal basis uses a compound linear transformation which distorts or stretches the data space. Hence, the correlated data does not have the same properties as the uncorrelated data used to generate it. This phenomena is responsible for seemingly strange observations such as the fact that the marginal distributions of the correlated data can be quite different from the distributions used to generate the data. The joint effect of statistical distributions and correlation remains a fertile area for further research. In terms of application to cost estimating, the geometric approach demonstrates that the estimator must have data and must understand that data in order to properly choose the correlation matrix appropriate for a given estimate. There is a general feeling by employers and managers that the field of cost requires little technical or mathematical background. Contrary to that opinion, this paper demonstrates that a background in mathematics equivalent to that needed for typical engineering and scientific disciplines at the masters or doctorate level is appropriate within the field of cost risk.

Dean, Edwin B.↗
NASA NTRS2001

DAO's Next Generation Physical-Space/Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System: Formulation and Initial Evaluation

The Physical-space/Finite-volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS) is the next generation global atmospheric data assimilation system in development at the Data Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. It is based on a new finite-volume general circulation model jointly developed by NASA and NCAR, and on the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) developed at the DAO. In this talk we will describe the general system formulation, the adaptive quality control and general aspects of the error covariance modeling. The NASA-NCAR GCM is a completely new model which replaces the CEOs GCM used in the previous GEOS-1/2/3 Data Assimilation systems. A particular configuration of adaptive Statistical Quality Control and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) are currently implemented in DAO's operational Data Assimilation System. However, the unique finite-volume formulation of the NASA-NCAR GCM, combined with the generality of the observation-space formulation of PSAS, provides for a very simple and accurate model-analysis interface. The system assimilates a variety of conventional and satellite observations. In particular, TOVS Level 1B radiances are assimilated using a 1-D variational scheme, both in clear sky and cloudy conditions. Computationally, the fvDAS runs approximately 10 times faster than the operational GEOS-Terra system. We will show that the next-generation fvDAS has much improved observation-minus-6hr forecast (O-F) statistics, as well as 5-day forecast skills. Top of the atmosphere radiation fields are in closer agreement with CERES measurements, with realistic precipitation and moisture fields. We will also show that the finite-volume formulation of the fvDAS produce assimilated fields which are more suitable for driving constituent transport models.

daSilva, A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1972

On a stochastic control method for weakly coupled linear systems

The stochastic control of two weakly coupled linear systems with different controllers is considered. Each controller only makes measurements about his own system; no information about the other system is assumed to be available. Based on the noisy measurements, the controllers are to generate independently suitable control policies which minimize a quadratic cost functional. To account for the effects of weak coupling directly, an approximate model, which involves replacing the influence of one system on the other by a white noise process is proposed. Simple suboptimal control problem for calculating the covariances of these noises is solved using the matrix minimum principle. The overall system performance based on this scheme is analyzed as a function of the degree of intersystem coupling.

Kwong, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Assimilation of satellite microwave observations over the rainbands of tropical cyclones

A novel Bayesian Monte Carlo integration (BMCI) technique was developed to retrieve geophysical variables from satellite microwave radiometer data in the presence of tropical cyclones. The BMCI technique includes three steps: generating a stochastic database, simulating satellite brightness temperatures using a radiative transfer model, and retrieving geophysical variables such as profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and cloud liquid and ice water content from real observations. The technique also provides uncertainty estimates for each retrieval and can output the error covariance matrix of selected parameters. The measurements from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) on board Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) were used as input. A new technique was developed to correct the ATMS and GMI observations for the beam-filling effect, which is due to small-scale variability of precipitation and clouds when compared with the instrument footprint and also the nonlinear relation between the brightness temperature and precipitation. In addition, the assimilation of the BMCI retrievals into the NASA GEOS model is discussed for Hurricane Maria. The results show that assimilating the BMCI retrievals can influence the dynamical features of the cyclone, including a stronger warm core, a symmetric eye, and vertically aligned wind columns. Two possible factors that may limit the impact of the BMCI retrievals include 1) the resolution of the model (about 25 km), which was too coarse to show the potential of the BMCI data in improving the representation of tropical storms in the model forecast, and 2) the data assimilation system not being able to consider vertically correlated observation errors.

Isaac Moradi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Tundra Polygon Type and Climate Variability on CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes Near Utqiagvik, Alaska

Arctic tundra has the potential to generate significant climate feedbacks, but spatial complexity makes it difficult to quantify the impacts of climate on ecosystem-atmosphere fluxes, particularly in polygonal tundra comprising wetter and drier polygon types on the scale of tens of meters. We measured CO 2 , CH 4 , and energy fluxes using eddy covariance for 7 yr (April to November, 2013–2019) in polygonal tundra near Utqiagvik, Alaska. This period saw the earliest snowmelt, latest snow accumulation, and hottest summer on record. To estimate fluxes by polygon type, we combined a polygon classification with a flux-footprint model. Methane fluxes were highest in the summer months but were also large during freeze-up and increased with the warming trend in August–November temperatures. While CO 2 respiration had a consistent, exponential relationship with temperature, net ecosystem exchange was more variable among years. CO 2 and CH 4 exchange (June–September) ranged between -0.83 (Standard error [SE] = 0.03) and -1.32 (SE = 0.04) μmol m -2 s-1 and 13.92 (SE = 0.26)—23.42 (SE = 0.45) nmol m -2 s -1 , respectively, and varied interannually (p ≤ 0.05). The maximum-influence method effectively attributed fluxes to polygon types. Areas dominated by low-centered polygons had higher CO 2 fluxes except in 2016–2017. Methane fluxes were highest in low-centered polygons 2013–2015 and in flat-centered polygons in subsequent years, possibly due to increasing temperature and precipitation. Sensible and latent heat fluxes also varied significantly among polygon types. Accurate characterization of Arctic fluxes and their climate dependencies requires spatial disaggregation and long term observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using Leaf Chlorophyll to Parameterize Light-Use-Efficiency Within a Thermal-Based Carbon, Water and Energy Exchange Model

Chlorophylls absorb photosynthetically active radiation and thus function as vital pigments for photosynthesis, which makes leaf chlorophyll content (C(sub ab) useful for monitoring vegetation productivity and an important indicator of the overall plant physiological condition. This study investigates the utility of integrating remotely sensed estimates of C(sub ab) into a thermal-based Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model that estimates land-surface CO2 and energy fluxes using an analytical, light-use-efficiency (LUE) based model of canopy resistance. The LUE model component computes canopy-scale carbon assimilation and transpiration fluxes and incorporates LUE modifications from a nominal (species-dependent) value (LUE(sub n)) in response to short term variations in environmental conditions, However LUE(sub n) may need adjustment on a daily timescale to accommodate changes in plant phenology, physiological condition and nutrient status. Day to day variations in LUE(sub n) were assessed for a heterogeneous corn crop field in Maryland, U,S.A. through model calibration with eddy covariance CO2 flux tower observations. The optimized daily LUE(sub n) values were then compared to estimates of C(sub ab) integrated from gridded maps of chlorophyll content weighted over the tower flux source area. The time continuous maps of daily C(sub ab) over the study field were generated by focusing in-situ measurements with retrievals generated with an integrated radiative transfer modeling tool (accurate to within +/-10%) using at-sensor radiances in green, red and near-infrared wavelengths acquired with an aircraft imaging system. The resultant daily changes in C(sub ab) within the tower flux source area generally correlated well with corresponding changes in daily calibrated LUE(sub n) derived from the tower flux data, and hourly water, energy and carbon flux estimation accuracies from TSEB were significantly improved when using C(sub ab) for delineating spatio-temporal variations in LUE(sub n). The results demonstrate the synergy between thermal infrared and shortwave reflective wavebands in producing valuable remote sensing data for operational monitoring of carbon and water fluxes.

Houlborg, Rasmus↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fission Product Yields: SCALE/ORNL Perspective [Slides]

This presentation covers a few key points. First and foremost, that ORIGEN is a consumer of FPY data. Secondly, TRITON and POLARIS are assets which can be used to validate new FPY data, e.g., from existing radiochemical benchmarks and new irradiation experiments. Lastly, this presentation finds that new capabilities with covariance data should be developed, and V and V methods and analysis are also needed for the covariance data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

ECOSTRESS: NASA's Next Generation Mission to Measure Evapotranspiration From the International Space Station

Abstract The ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) was launched to the International Space Station on 29 June 2018 by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The primary science focus of ECOSTRESS is centered on evapotranspiration (ET), which is produced as Level‐3 (L3) latent heat flux ( LE ) data products. These data are generated from the Level‐2 land surface temperature and emissivity product (L2_LSTE), in conjunction with ancillary surface and atmospheric data. Here, we provide the first validation (Stage 1, preliminary) of the global ECOSTRESS clear‐sky ET product (L3_ET_PT‐JPL, Version 6.0) against LE measurements at 82 eddy covariance sites around the world. Overall, the ECOSTRESS ET product performs well against the site measurements (clear‐sky instantaneous/time of overpass: r 2 = 0.88; overall bias = 8%; normalized root‐mean‐square error, RMSE = 6%). ET uncertainty was generally consistent across climate zones, biome types, and times of day (ECOSTRESS samples the diurnal cycle), though temperate sites are overrepresented. The 70‐m‐high spatial resolution of ECOSTRESS improved correlations by 85%, and RMSE by 62%, relative to 1‐km pixels. This paper serves as a reference for the ECOSTRESS L3 ET accuracy and Stage 1 validation status for subsequent science that follows using these data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large-Scale Inference of Multivariate Regression for Heavy-Tailed and Asymmetric Data

Large-scale multivariate regression is a fundamental statistical tool with a wide range of applications. Here, this study considers the problem of simultaneously testing a large number of general linear hypotheses, encompassing covariate-effect analysis, analysis of variance, and model comparisons. The challenge that accompanies a large number of tests is the ubiquitous presence of heavy-tailed and/or highly skewed measurement noise, which is the main reason for the failure of conventional least squares-based methods. For large-scale multivariate regression, we develop a set of robust inference methods to explore data features such as heavy tailedness and skewness, which are not visible to least squares methods. The new testing procedure is based on the data-adaptive Huber regression and a new covariance estimator of regression estimates. Under mild conditions, we show that our methods produce consistent estimates of the false discovery proportion. Extensive numerical experiments and an empirical study on quantitative linguistics demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method over many state-of-the-art methods when the data are generated from heavy-tailed and/or skewed distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1975

A study of sound generation in subsonic rotors, volume 2

Computer programs were developed for use in the analysis of sound generation by subsonic rotors. Program AIRFOIL computes the spectrum of radiated sound from a single airfoil immersed in a laminar flow field. Program ROTOR extends this to a rotating frame, and provides a model for sound generation in subsonic rotors. The program also computes tone sound generation due to steady state forces on the blades. Program TONE uses a moving source analysis to generate a time series for an array of forces moving in a circular path. The resultant time series are than Fourier transformed to render the results in spectral form. Program SDATA is a standard time series analysis package. It reads in two discrete time series and forms auto and cross covariances and normalizes these to form correlations. The program then transforms the covariances to yield auto and cross power spectra by means of a Fourier transformation.

Chalupnik, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the Variation and Covariation of Cloud Microphysical Properties and Implications for Simulation of Subgrid-scale Warm-Rain Processes in Earth System Models (Final DOE-ASR Report)

Warm marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds constitute an important component in the global climate system, and precipitation plays a central role in controlling the water budget, radiative effects, and lifetime of these MBL clouds. Unfortunately, because of the relatively coarse effective grid resolution of the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs), the variety of cloud microphysical processes occurring inside an ESM grid cell are often oversimplified or unconstrained by observations. For example, the warm rain processes (e.g., autoconversion and accretion) are usually parameterized as nonlinear functions of grid-mean cloud properties. Because of the nonlinear nature of these functions, neglecting variability within the ESM grid volume can lead to substantial biases in precipitation production, cloud cover, and surface radiative fluxes. In state-of-the art ESMs, the influence of subgrid-scale variability is represented as an enhancement factor (EF) coefficient to the autoconversion, and accretion rates calculated from the model variables. However, EF is typically taken to be a constant or even used as a knob to tune model cloud properties to match observations, an ad hoc approach that may yield a desired cloud outcome yet introduce compensating errors. In this project, we used the combination of in situ cloud microphysics measurements from the ACE-ENA field campaign and large-eddy simulations (LES) to characterize and understand subgrid-scale variations and co-variations of cloud microphysical properties and use the results to evaluate and improve the representation of subgrid warm-rain processes in ESMs, in particular the EF used to tune the autoconversion and accretion processes. In this final report, we summarize our research activities and main findings in Section 2, provide a list of publications (Section 3) and presentations (Section 4) resulted from our research, and briefly discuss the student activities supported by this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗