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At least 217 records · Page 12

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) concept definition study. Volume 2, part 2: System engineering

The latest technical and programmatic developments are considered as well as expansions of the Rockwell SPS cost model covering each phase of the program through the year 2030. Comparative cost/economic analyses cover elements of the satellite, construction system, space transportation vehicles and operations, and the ground receiving station. System plans to define time phased costs and planning requirements that support major milestones through the year 2000. A special analysis is included on natural resources required to build the SPS reference configuration. An appendix contains the SPS Work Breakdown Structure and dictionary along with detail cost data sheet on each system and main element of the program. Over 200 line items address DDT&E, theoretical first unit, investment cost per satellite, and operations charges for replacement capital and normal operations and maintenance costs.

Hanley, G. M.↗

Optimization Using Metamodeling in the Context of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME)

Predictive Design Technologies, LLC (PDT) proposed to employ Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) tools to help the manufacturing industry in the United States regain the competitive advantage in the global economy. ICME uses computational materials science tools within a holistic system in order to accelerate materials development, improve design optimization, and unify design and manufacturing. With the advent of accurate modeling and simulation along with significant increases in high performance computing (HPC) power, virtual design and manufacturing using ICME tools provide the means to reduce product development time and cost by alleviating costly trial-and-error physical design iterations while improving overall quality and manufacturing efficiency. To reduce the computational cost necessary for the large-scale HPC simulations and to make the methodology accessible for small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), metamodels are employed. Metamodels are approximate models (functional relationships between input and output variables) that can reduce the simulation times by one to two orders of magnitude. In Phase I, PDT, partnered with Mississippi State University (MSU), demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed methodology by employing MSU?s internal state variable (ISV) plasticity-damage model with the help of metamodels to optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost for tube manufacturing processes used by Plymouth Tube Company (PTC), which involves complicated temperature and mechanical loading histories. PDT quantified the microstructure-property relationships for PTC?s SAE J525 electric resistance-welded cold drawn low carbon hydraulic 1010 steel tube manufacturing processes at seven different material states and calibrated the ISV plasticity material parameters to fit experimental tensile stress-strain curves. PDT successfully performed large scale finite element (FE) simulations in an HPC environment using the ISV plasticity model in Abaqus FE analyses of the tube forming, sizing, drawing, welding, and normalizing processes. The simulation results coupled with the manufacturing cost data were used to develop prototype metamodeling (quick response) codes which could be used to predict and optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost relationships. The developed ICME metamodeling toolkits are flexible enough to be applied to other manufacturing processes (e.g. forging, forming, casting, extrusion, rolling, stamping, and welding/joining) and metamodeling codes can run on laptop computers. Based on the work completed in Phase I, in Phase II, PDT proposes to continue to refine the ISV model by correlating and incorporating the uncertainties in the microstructure, mechanical testing, and modeling. Following the model refinement, FE analyses will be simulated and will provide even more realistic predictions as they include an appropriate window of uncertainty. Using the HPC output (FE analyses) as input, the quick-response metamodel codes will more accurately predict and optimize the microstructure-process-property-cost relationships. Furthermore, PDT propose to employ the ICME metamodeling toolkits to help develop a new tube product using entirely new high strength steel. The modeling of the high strength steel manufacturing process will replace the costly and time consuming trial-and-error methods that were used in the tubing industry previously. This simulation-based process prototyping will greatly benefit our industrial partners by opening up new market spaces due to new products with greater capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis 1.3.5.200

The objective of NREL's Algal Biofuel Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) project is to provide process modeling and analysis to support Algae Program activities, utilizing TEA models to relate key process parameters with overall economics for cultivation, processing, and conversion of algal biomass to fuels and coproducts. By quantifying economic implications of key process metrics, TEA models highlight the technical requirements to achieve future program cost goals as well as enabling a means to track progress towards these goals. This project provides high impact and relevance though generation of critical cost data tied to funded research, with our analyses subsequently exercised by BETO to guide program plans, FOA priorities, and other directives. This includes costs for both algal biomass production and downstream conversion, most notably to support BETO's fuel cost targets below $2.5/GGE by 2030. To mitigate a key risk/challenge in constraining our work to academic analyses rooted only in future projections, our work also seeks to provide near-term value to today's algae industry through frequent industry engagement, while maintaining close ties with other BETO collaborators. This project has made numerous accomplishments since the 2019 peer review, including a continued focus on opportunities for value-added products, with related analyses for new pathway opportunities to achieve BETO cost goals and notable State-of-Technology (SOT) improvements over prior cost benchmarks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Water Impacts of High Solar PV Electricity Penetration

This analysis provides a detailed national and regional description of the water-related impacts and constraints of high solar electricity penetration scenarios in the U.S. in 2030 and 2050. A modified version of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that incorporates water resource availability and costs as a constraint in each of its 134 Balancing Area (BA) regions was utilized to explore national and regional differences in water use impacts and solar deployment locations under different solar energy cost and water availability scenarios (Macknick et al. 2015). Water resource availability and cost data are from recently completed research at Sandia National Laboratories (Tidwell et al. 2013a). Scenarios analyzed include two business-as-usual solar energy cost cases, one with and one without considering available water resources, and four solar energy cost cases that meet the SunShot cost goals (i.e., $1/watt for utility-scale PV systems), with varying levels of water availability restrictions. This analysis provides insight into the role solar energy technologies have in the broader electricity sector under scenarios of water constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Updated Oregon Floating Offshore Wind Cost Modeling [Slides]

The study provides heat maps showing updated estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for floating offshore wind energy off the coast of Oregon. This project builds on a 2019 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) floating offshore wind power cost study in Oregon (Musial et al. 2019) and a recent NREL California cost analysis (Beiter et al. 2020). Floating wind power cost data, modeling methodology, and resource data are updated and LCOE is estimated through 2032 using 2019 as a reference year. Comparisons are made to the previous offshore wind energy cost studies (Musial et al. 2019; Beiter et al. 2020). The study does not prioritize specific sites or make judgments about marine spatial planning viability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Validation of the NLR Pumped Storage Hydropower Cost Model

The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) first released its pumped storage hydropower (PSH) cost model in 2023 as the most detailed bottom-up PSH cost model available to the public. It is available both as a spreadsheet and an interactive web tool, enabling users with a variety of PSH interests to transparently characterize costs of alternative PSH sites and designs. The PSH cost model cannot replace detailed site-level studies and design, but it is important to validate it against other industry PSH cost estimates. The initial model methodology report validated the cost model for a single proposed site, the Eagle Mountain Project in California. This slide deck documents an expanded validation exercise using cost data from six other sites: Goldendale (Washington), Seminoe (Wyoming), Gordon Butte (Montana), Swan Lake (Oregon), White Pine (Oregon), and Lewis Ridge (Kentucky). It compares itemized costs from Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) applications and other reported costs with NLR PSH cost model outputs after customizing inputs for each site. The validation exercise finds that the NLR model's conservative indirect cost assumptions often drive overall cost overestimation, with direct cost comparisons typically agreeing more closely. All cost model estimates are well within an Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) Class 5 estimation range (-50% to +100%), with five within the AACE Class 4 range (-30% to +50%) and four being within 15%. This result is considered reasonable performance for a parametric model applied at a preliminary design stage.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

EverGREEN 2045: An Energy mix to Decarbonize Washington State

The Clean Energy Transformation Act transitions Washington State to 100% clean energy by 2045. As the future resource mix will likely include intermittent renewables, hydropower, and new, carbon-free, flexible technologies including advanced nuclear reactors and enhanced geothermal systems, we assess the cost and feasibility of the future resource mix with proprietary cost data from our industry partners for new technologies. For plausible future resource mix scenarios, we find that revenues are sufficient to cover variable operations and maintenance costs for most technologies, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will be necessary for new, flexible resources to participate in the future resource mix.

clean energy, energy policy, energy transition, re↗

Orbital transfer rocket engine technology: Advanced engine study

An advanced LOX/LH2 engine study for the use of NASA and vehicle prime contractors in developing concepts for manned missions to the Moon, Mars, and Phobos is documented. Parametric design data was obtained at five engine thrusts from 7.5K lbf to 50K lbf. Also, a separate task evaluated engine throttling over a 20:1 range and operation at a mixture ratio of 12 plus or minus 1 versus the 6 plus or minus 1 nominal. Cost data was also generated for DDT&E, first unit production, and factors in other life cycle costs. The major limitation of the study was lack of contact with vehicle prime contractors to resolve the issues in vehicle/engine interfaces. The baseline Aerojet dual propellant expander cycle was shown capable of meeting all performance requirements with an expected long operational life due to the high thermal margins. The basic engine design readily accommodated the 20:1 throttling requirement and operation up to a mixture ratio of 10 without change. By using platinum for baffled injector construction the increased thermal margin allowed operation up to mixture ratio 13. An initial engine modeling with an Aerojet transient simulation code (named MLETS) indicates stable engine operation with the baseline control system. A throttle ratio of 4 to 5 seconds from 10 percent to 100 percent thrust is also predicted. Performance predictions are 483.1 sec at 7.5K lbf, 487.3 sec at 20K lbf, and 485.2 sec at 50K lbf with a mixture ratio of 6 and an area ratio of 1200. Engine envelopes varied from 120 in. length/53 in. exit diameter at 7.5K lbf to 305 in. length/136 in. exit diameter at 50 K lbf. Packaging will be an important consideration. Continued work is recommended to include more vehicle prime contractor/engine contractor joint assessment of the interface issues.

Hayden, Warren R.↗

Cost analysis of alternative large-scale high-temperature solid oxide electrolysis hydrogen production facilities

We extend our past cost analysis of gigawatt-scale solid oxide electrolysis (SOE) facilities that produce high purity hydrogen gas from water by estimating construction and operating costs for three new alternative design cases: (1) offsite feed steam generation; (2) near-atmospheric pressure (NAP) stack; and (3) onsite electric boiler feed steam generation. Pressure effects on hydrogen electrode-(cathode-)supported SOE cell (SOEC) stack performance are estimated for the same assumed cell and stack construction and used to determine facility-wide stack capital costs for achieving a fixed H2 production at different pressures. Modular balance of plant (BOP) process equipment capital costs are estimated for each new alternative design case using our past equipment sizing, design, and cost data and scaling relationships. Furthermore, we update BOP equipment sizing and design for the NAP case using Aspen®. Vendor quotes for electric boilers are used to estimate costs for the electric boiler design case. Factory and onsite assembly and installation costs for SOEC stacks and BOP equipment are calculated using our past simplified first-principles approach. First-of-a-kind (FOAK) and N th -of-a-kind (NOAK) production maturity cost estimates are included for all results. The case with NAP stacks offers the lowest facility total capital cost (TCC, ~23% lower than base) while use of small electric boilers requires the highest TCC (~3% higher than base). H 2 production prices decrease from the base of ~$\$2.17$ /kgH 2 to ~$\$1.92$/kgH 2 for 1 GW e DC SIP facilities utilizing NAP stacks supplied by offsites steam situated in large modules and blocks for $\$0.030$/kWh e and $0.009/kWh t prices for electricity and thermal energy, respectively. We report all costs in 2021 US dollars.

Balance of plant (BOP) process equipment↗

Designing a drone delivery network with automated battery swapping machines

Drones are projected to alter last-mile delivery, but their short travel range is a concern. In this study, we propose a drone delivery network design using automated battery swapping machines (ABSMs) to extend ranges. The design minimizes the long-term delivery costs, including ABSM investment, drone ownership, and cost of the delivery time, and locates ABSMs to serve a set of customers. We build a mixed-integer nonlinear program that captures the nonlinear waiting time of drones at ABSMs. To solve the problem, we create an exact solution algorithm that finds the globally optimal solution using a derivative-supported cutting-plane method. To validate the applicability of our program, we conduct a case study on the Chicago Metropolitan area using cost data from leading ABSM manufacturer and geographical data from the planning and operations language for agent-based regional integrated simulation (more commonly known as POLARIS). A sensitivity analysis identifies that ABSM service times and costs are the key parameters impacting the long-term adoption of drone delivery.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Estimating the cost of high temperature liquid metal based concentrated solar power

The present levelized cost of electricity from concentrated solar power is too high to directly compete with natural gas under current carbon emissions policies. An approximate 50% cost reduction is needed relative to current power tower technology based on molten nitrate salts, and one pathway to a major cost reduction is to operate the system at higher temperatures, enabling a more efficient heat engine. Here, we consider a future system that can operate at gas turbine inlet temperatures of ~1300–1500 °C by using liquid metals as heat transfer and storage fluids with a ceramic based piping infrastructure. In general, ceramics are more expensive than the current stainless steels, but they are less expensive than the nickel alloys that are proposed to be used in higher temperature chloride molten salt plants. Considering various tradeoffs, it was not clear a priori whether or not the potential gains in heat engine efficiency would be negated by increased material costs or how much net reduction in levelized cost might be possible. This study answers this question by first detailing a base case molten nitrate salt power tower plant with published cost data. Then, a future liquid metal version of a power tower is modeled using similar specifications as the liquid salt plant to determine if there are any obvious costs that might negate the efficiency gains associated with operating well above 1000 °C. The results of the analysis showed that although the receiver and several other sub-systems become more expensive, there is a net cost reduction in the range of 20%–30%, depending upon the heat engine efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Disposal Systems Evaluation Framework DSEF User Manual (V.3.0)

The Disposal Systems Evaluation Framework (DSEF) has been developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to formalize and facilitate the development and documentation of repository conceptual design options for a range of waste forms, geologic environments, repository design concepts, and repository operating modes. DSEF is one component of the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) family of work packages at several national laboratories led by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), in support of the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy, specifically of the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) Campaign within the Office of Used Nuclear Fuel Disposition Research and Development (NE-53). DSEF is a knowledge management system that allows the user to intelligently access and draw data from a case library of hundreds of completed thermal analyses (currently 721 cases in the library), and draw input from databases of material properties and repository development cost data (currently the data in these databases are drawn from more than 100 references). The core functionality of DSEF is provided by a Microsoft Office Excel 2010 workbook with macros and form controls that create a structured environment and walk the user through the steps of creating the input data required to perform disposal system evaluations internally and by interfacing with external programs. The user can choose to work with built-in data from the case library of previous analysis cases, from the material property databases, or can define their own input descriptions and data. DSEF uses the Excel worksheet protection (implemented on a sheet by sheet basis) to prevent inadvertent over-writing of formulas with data. When worksheet protection is enabled, the user can see all underlying formulas, and enter data in unprotected cells (the unprotected cells generally correspond to the yellow highlighted cells). Worksheet protection also prevents restructuring the files (adding or deleting rows or columns) and changing the formatting, as well as preventing access to the Visual Basic Editor to prevent modification of the macros. If the user needs to modify the worksheet structure, formulas, or macros, they can contact LLNL to get the password to unprotect the worksheets. However, care should be taken in making any modifications, since the macros and formulas are dependent in some cases on the current structure, range names, and macro subroutines DSEF is set up to retrieve the results of external thermal analysis program runs, summarize them graphically, and provide a template for adding the new results to the Case Library. The Case Library worksheet in DSEF is set up to create a Case Library data record for each new analysis case, at the top of the list of prior cases. Therefore, a separate DSEF file (with unique name) should be saved for each run that is to be archived. Users should submit a copy of their DSEF files to LLNL so that their results can be added to the overall Case Library and made available to other laboratories and stakeholders. LLNL will maintain the DSEF Case Library and make the most current files available on the SNL SharePoint site. The Revision History sheet documents the file evolution. One of the key objectives of DSEF is to allow the user to compare the results of thermal analyses to the thermal constraints of the design components. These comparisons can then be used to consider design, layout, and operating mode modifications to find combinations that can meet the thermal constraints for a given combination of waste form, geologic medium, surface storage time, and system concept of operation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Water Constraints in an Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Model

This analysis provides a description of the first U.S. national electricity capacity expansion model to incorporate water resource availability and costs as a constraint for the future development of the electricity sector. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model was modified to incorporate water resource availability constraints and costs in each of its 134 Balancing Area (BA) regions along with differences in costs and efficiencies of cooling systems. Water resource availability and cost data are from recently completed research at Sandia National Laboratories (Tidwell et al. 2013b). Scenarios analyzed include a business-as-usual 3 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. scenario without water constraints as well as four scenarios that include water constraints and allow for different cooling systems and types of water resources to be utilized. This analysis provides insight into where water resource constraints could affect the choice, configuration, or location of new electricity technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Potential benefits of a ceramic thermal barrier coating on large power generation gas turbine

Thermal barrier coating design option offers benefit in terms of reduced electricity costs when used in utility gas turbines. Options considered include: increased firing temperature, increased component life, reduced cooling air requirements, and increased corrosion resistance (resulting in increased tolerance for dirty fuels). Performance and cost data were obtained. Simple, recuperated and combined cycle applications were considered, and distillate and residual fuels were assumed. The results indicate that thermal barrier coatings could produce large electricity cost savings if these coatings permit turbine operation with residual fuels at distillate-rated firing temperatures. The results also show that increased turbine inlet temperature can result in substantial savings in fuel and capital costs.

Clark, J. S.↗

Marine Hydrokinetic Energy Site Identification and Ranking Methodology Part II: Tidal Energy

Marine hydrokinetic energy is a promising and growing piece of the renewable energy sector that offers high predictability and additional energy sources for a diversified energy economy. This report investigates the market opportunities for tidal energy along the U.S. coastlines. It is part one of a two-part investigation into the United States' two largest marine hydrokinetic resources (wave and tidal). Tidal energy technology is still an emerging form of renewable energy for which large-scale grid-connected project costs are currently poorly defined. Ideally, device designers would like to know the resource conditions at economical project sites so they can optimize device designs. On the other hand, project developers need detailed device cost data to identify sites where projects are economical. That is, device design and siting are, to some extent, a coupled problem. This work describes a methodology for identifying likely deployment locations based on a set of criteria that tidal energy experts in industry, academia, and national laboratories agree are likely to be important factors for all technology types. Several factors that will affect tidal project costs and siting have not been considered here -- including permitting constraints, conflicting use, seasonal resource variability, extreme event likelihood, and distance to ports -- because consistent data are unavailable or technology-independent scoring could not be identified. As the industry continues to mature and converge around a subset of device archetypes with well-defined costs, more precise investigations of project siting that include these factors will be possible. For now, these results provide a high-level guide pointing to the regions where markets and resource will one day support commercial tidal energy projects.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Systems design study of the Pioneer Venus spacecraft. Appendices to volume 1, sections 8-11 (part 3 of 3)

Power subsystem cost/weight tradeoffs are discussed for the Venus probe spacecraft. The cost estimations of power subsystem units were based upon DSCS-2, DSP, and Pioneer 10 and 11 hardware design and development and manufacturing experience. Parts count and degree of modification of existing hardware were factored into the estimate of manufacturing and design and development costs. Cost data includes sufficient quantities of units to equip probe bus and orbiter versions. It was based on the orbiter complement of equipment, but the savings in fewer slices for the probe bus balance the cost of the different probe bus battery. The preferred systems for the Thor/Delta and for the Atlas/Centaur are discussed. The weights of the candidate designs were based upon slice or tray weights for functionally equivalent circuitry measured on existing hardware such as Pioneers 10 and 11, Intelsat 3, DSCS-2, or DSP programs. Battery weights were based on measured cell weight data adjusted for case weight or off-the-shelf battery weights. The solar array weight estimate was based upon recent hardware experience on DSCS-2 and DSP arrays.

Source record↗

Valuing Residential Energy Efficiency: Analysis for a Prototypical Southeastern Utility [Slides]

The increasing amount of variable renewable energy resources and shifts towards more end-use and vehicle electrification suggests profound changes to power system planning and operation. Specifically, renewable energy is expected to shift net peak demand from late afternoon to early evening and end-use electrification may significantly increase winter peak demand. Residential energy efficiency is likely to align well with these shifts as it tends to produce savings in the early evening (e.g., from lighting measures) and coincident with heating loads (e.g., from envelope and space conditioning measures). Despite the opportunity to decrease system costs and emissions, residential energy efficiency is often limited by static valuation methods and its economic potential is considerably less than its technical potential. Using hourly residential energy efficiency characterizations, utility program cost data, and a capacity expansion model, we estimate the benefits of residential energy efficiency for a prototypical, summer-peaking utility in the Southeastern region. We first establish the cost-effective residential energy efficiency portfolio through “competition” with supply-side resources in a forward-looking capacity expansion model. Importantly, we then evaluate several scenarios intended to drive an increasing amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency through measure cost reductions, increased customer adoption, policy goals (e.g., carbon price), and delivery of an integrated package of measures. The results quantify total system cost and emissions reductions, fossil-fuel plant retirements, and peak demand reductions. Results suggest the design and prioritization of policies and programs to access the untapped amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗