Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Confidence”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

Preliminary analysis of STS-1 entry flight data

A preliminary analysis of data acquired during the first shuttle orbiter reentry is presented. Heating levels were higher than predicted. Variations in measured versus predicted lift to drag ratio and trim are discussed, as are plots showing time histories of control surface and jet activity. The confidence felt in the stability and control derivatives is only fair. Confidence in the derivatives extracted for Mach numbers below 3.5 is especially weak, because these derivatives were affected by sideslip data contaminated by wind and turbulence, nonindependent rudder motions, and buffet. The sources of the data used are described. Recommendations are presented for changes to the Aerodynamic Data Book, and for planning future flights.

Source record↗

Flight test of a pure-tone acoustic source

Static and flight testing of a pure-tone acoustic source were conducted in order to: (1) determine if a 4-KHz tone radiated by a source in flight and mixed with broadband aircraft flyover noise could be measured on the ground with a high degree of statistical confidence; (2) determine how well a comparison could be made of flight-to-static tone radiation pattern and a static radiation pattern; and (3) determine if there were any installation effects on the radiation pattern due to the flight vehicle. Narrow-band acoustic data were measured and averaged over eight microphones to obtain a high statistical confidence. The flight data were adjusted to an equivalent static condition by applying corrections for retarded time, spherical spreading, atmospheric absorption, ground impedance, instrumentation constraints, convective amplification, and the Doppler shift. The flight-to-static results are in excellent agreement with the measured static data. No installation effects were observed on the radiation pattern.

Mueller, A. W.↗

Polarization of the cosmic background radiation

The technique and results of a measurement of the linear polarization of the cosmic background radiation at a wavelength of 9 mm are discussed. Data taken between 1978 May and 1980 February from both the Northern Hemisphere (Berkeley latitude 38 deg N) and the Southern Hemisphere (Lima latitude 12 deg S) over 11 declinations from -37 to +63 deg show the radiation to be essentially unpolarized over all areas surveyed. Fitting all data gives the 95% confidence level limit on a linearly polarized component of 0.3 mK for spherical harmonics through third order. A fit of all data to the anisotropic axisymmetric model of Rees (1968) yields a 95% confidence level limit of 0.15 mK for the magnitude of the polarized component. Constraints on various cosmological models are discussed in light of these limits.

Lubin, P. M.↗

Consistent Tolerance Bounds for Statistical Distributions

Assumption that sample comes from population with particular distribution is made with confidence C if data lie between certain bounds. These "confidence bounds" depend on C and assumption about distribution of sampling errors around regression line. Graphical test criteria using tolerance bounds are applied in industry where statistical analysis influences product development and use. Applied to evaluate equipment life.

Mezzacappa, M. A.↗

An evaluation of the NASA/GSFC Barnes field spectral reflecometer model 14-758, using signal/noise as a measure of utility

A Barnes field spectral reflectometer which collected information in 373 channels covering the region from 0.4 to 2.5 micrometers was assessed for signal utility. A band was judged unsatisfactory if the probability was 0.1 or greater than its signal to noise ratio was less than eight to one. For each of the bands the probability of a noisy observation was estimated under a binomial assumption from a set of field crop spectra covering an entire growing season. A 95% confidence interval was calculated about each estimate and bands whose lower confidence limits were greater than 0.1 were judged unacceptable. As a result, 283 channels were deemed statistically satisfactory. Excluded channels correspond to portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) where high atmospheric absorption and filter wheel overlap occur. In addition, the analyses uncovered intervals of unsatisfactory detection capability within the blue, red and far infrared regions of vegetation spectra. From the results of the analysis it was recommended that 90 channels monitored by the instrument under consideration be eliminated from future studies. These channels are tabulated and discussed.

Bell, R.↗

A comparison of measured and estimated meteorological data for use in crop growth modeling

Gridded spatial estimates of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, prepared for agricultural use from World Meteorological Organization surface reports and enhanced by polar orbiting satellites were compared with daily meteorological data measured at various agricultural research facilities across the United States to determine their level of accuracy. Preliminary results indicate that daily maximum temperature can be determined to within 9.1 degrees Celsius with ninety percent confidence. With similar levels of confidence, daily minimum temperature can be determined to within 6.7 degrees Celsius, daily solar radiation to within 231.2 cal/sq cm min, and daily precipitation to within 9.7 millimeters.

Perry, C. R., Jr.↗

Dark streaks on talus slopes, Mars

High-resolution pictures of talus slopes on Mars show small, dark streaks that characteristically widen downward. These streaks are different from the thin and even streaks of various albedos that stream from cliffs on talus slopes, but gradations between the two streak types occur and not all streaks can be classified with confidence. In order to study the nature and origin of the small, widening, dark streaks, all Viking pictures with a resolution of less than 100 m/pixel were surveyed. To date several hundred streaks were located, but only few are of high enough resolution to be confidently identified as widening downwards. The approximate dimensions of the streaks were measured and their shapes, numbers, position, and spacing on slopes were noted. They were plotted on a topographic map, and their relation to topography, geologic units, and regions of distinct thermal inertia and albedo were studied. Also noted was the season at which images containing streaks were acquired and the direction of illumination. Albedo measurements are in progress. Several streaks can be seen stereoscopically, but none are observed on color images. The observation of small dark streaks on talus slopes on Mars is compatible with an interpretation of their origin as eruptions of small masses of wet debris in places where steep walls intersect aquifers or where seasonal equatorial warming permits the local melting of ground ice.

Ferguson, H. M.↗

Linear and circular polarization of the cosmic background radiation

New data which consist of continued measurements of the linear polarization of the cosmic background radiation as well as the first measurement of the circular polarization are examined. Eleven declinations have been surveyed for linear polarization and one declination for circular polarization, all at 9 mm wavelength. No evidence is found for either a significant linear or circular component with statistical errors on the linear component of 20-60 microK for various models. For linear polarization, a 95 percent confidence level limit of 0.1 mK (0.00003) for an axisymmetric anisotropic model is achieved, while for spherical harmonics through third order, a corresponding limit of 0.2 mK is achieved. For a declination of 37 deg, a limit of 12 mK is placed on the time-varying component and 20 mK on the dc component of the circular polarization at the 95 percent confidence level. At 37 percent declination, the sensitivity per beam patch (7 deg) is 0.2 mK.

Lubin, P.↗

Wide-angle radio tail QSOs as members of clusters of galaxies. II - Direct optical observations and spectroscopy of QSO fields

Deep, direct observations are obtained for the fields of 19 QSOs (redshift values 0.3-1.5) whose 'excess' galaxy counts in 1.17-sq arcmin fields centered on the QSOs confirm QSO redshift cosmological interpretations at the 99-percent confidence level. It is in addition indicated with 97-percent confidence that wide angle radio tail QSOs lie in richer concentrations of galaxies than undistorted QSOs. The results obtained also confirm that the 'excess' galaxies detected in the QSO fields have the same redshifts as the QSOs. These observations indicate that deep CCD observations of the fields of radio tail QSOs would provide a sample of distant clusters of galaxies at known redshifts (those of the QSOs).

Hintzen, P.↗

Cockpit Window Edge Proximity Effects on Judgements of Horizon Vertical Displacement

To quantify the influence of a spatially fixed edge on vertical displacement threshold, twenty-four males (12 pilots, 12 non-pilots) were presented a series of forced choice, paired comparison trials in which a 32 deg arc wide, thin, luminous horizontal stimulus line moved smoothly downward through five angles from a common starting position within a three second-long period. The five angles were 1.4, 1.7, 2, 2.3, and 2.6 deg. Each angle was presented paired with itself and the other four angles in all combinations in random order. For each pair of trials the observer had to choose which trial possessed the largest displacement. A confidence response also was made. The independent variable was the angular separation between the lower edge of a stable 'window' aperture through which the stimulus was seen to move and the lowest position attained by the stimulus. It was found that vertical displacement accuracy is inversely related to the angle separating the stimulus and the fixed window edge (p = .05). In addition, there is a strong tendency for pilot confidence to be lower than that of non-pilots for each of the three angular separations. These results are discussed in erms of selected cockpit features and as they relate to how pilots judge changes in aircraft pitch attitude.

Haines, R. F.↗

Space test program of high-voltage solar array-space plasma interactions

Future spacecraft, notably the proposed Space Station, will require power systems much larger than have previously been flown. It is recognized that at higher voltages, and at the relatively high plasma density present at low Earth orbital altitudes, undesirable interactions between the high voltage solar array and the space plasma will occur. Space experiments on high voltage solar array space plasma interactions in low Earth orbit are an absolute requirement for confident design of a higher voltage solar array. Experiments are presently being identified to provide the necessary space data for calibration of ground testing, validation of analytical models, and development of design guidelines required for confident design of high voltage solar arrays in space. A proposed flight experiment program which is designed to obtain the required data is summarized.

Carruth, M. R., Jr.↗

Evaluation of a real-time predictive guidance law for landing VTOL aircraft at sea

A piloted simulation evaluation was conducted to assess the merits of a predictive lull/swell guidance law for landing a vertical takeoff and landing aircraft at sea. Two cases were evaluated. The first was performed by the pilot without the aid of the lull/swell guidance indicator, which indicates a landing opportunity. The second was performed in a similar manner with the aid of the guidance indicator. The pilot was instructed to use the guidance indicator only as a landing aid. The results indicated the pilots were able to visually determine ship lulls and swells prior to landing. However, use of the lull/swell guidance resulted in increased pilot confidence in the existence of a landing opportunity, which resulted in significantly shorter hover waiting times prior to landing. The performance of the lull/swell guidance was conservative, in that it forecast the onset of deck lulls and swells later than the pilot could detect them, but with greater reliability and therefore greater pilot confidence. In no instances did the guidance algorithm predict a false ship lull with which the pilot did not agree.

Paulk, C. H., Jr.↗

Energy dependence of the P(bar)/P ratio in cosmic rays

The antiproton/proton /P(bar)/P/ratio is presented for seven kinetic energy intervals from 4.4 - 13.4 GeV. The P(bar) were observed in 1979 by the New Mexico State University balloon-borne magnet spectrometer. The observations are compared to various models including secondary production in a leaky box. A decline in the P(bar)/P ratio at low energies is expected if the P(bar) are produced as secondaries. The data are consistent with such a decline but the P(bar)/P ratio is much higher than expected. The confidence level is less than 0.0001 for a model based on a leaky box with a mean-matter-traversed lambda of 7 gm/sq cm. The best leaky-box-model fit obtained by varying lambda gives a confidence level of 0.12 for lambda l= 21 + or - 3 gm/sq c. Results are also presented for fits based on the closed-galaxy and other models.

Golden, R. L.↗

A comparison of LANDSAT TM to MSS imagery for detecting submerged aquatic vegetation in lower Chesapeake Bay

LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) and Multispectral Scanner (MSS) imagery generated simultaneously over Guinea Marsh, Virginia, are assessed in the ability to detect submerged aquatic, bottom-adhering plant canopies (SAV). An unsupervised clustering algorithm is applied to both image types and the resulting classifications compared to SAV distributions derived from color aerial photography. Class confidence and accuracy are first computed for all water areas and then only shallow areas where water depth is less than 6 feet. In both the TM and MSS imagery, masking water areas deeper than 6 ft. resulted in greater classification accuracy at confidence levels greater than 50%. Both systems perform poorly in detecting SAV with crown cover densities less than 70%. On the basis of the spectral resolution, radiometric sensitivity, and location of visible bands, TM imagery does not offer a significant advantage over MSS data for detecting SAV in Lower Chesapeake Bay. However, because the TM imagery represents a higher spatial resolution, smaller SAV canopies may be detected than is possible with MSS data.

Ackleson, S. G.↗

Measures of measurement adequacy

The adequacy of a measurement instrument is often characterized in terms of the precision, accuracy, and confidence that can be assigned to the measurements that it produces. The accuracy of the measurement may be defined as the size of the difference between the true and measured values. The precision of the system over a large number of measurements may be defined in terms of the sample standarad deviation. The confidence in an interval-values measurement may be defined as the probability that this interval contains the true value. These concepts are discussed in terms of their mathematical solutions.

Source record↗

Pitch change thresholds as influenced by angular rate and duration of the apparent horizon's displacement

The displacement threshold (DT) during voluntary visual tracking of a line and during fixation of a stable spot located at the initial stimulus position was determined to help in the modeling pilot manual dynamics during the nose-up 'flare' maneuver. Forty-six observers made paired comparison, forced choice judgments of the maximal downward displacements of a horizontal line moving at various speeds for the durations of 0.25, 0.50, and 1.00 sec. The results indicated that the DT is significantly lower, the confidence is higher, and the number of errors and guesses is smaller when a fixation dot is present; moreover, increasing both the stimulus velocity and duration significantly improves the accuracy of displacement discrimination and increases mean confidence.

Haines, R. F.↗

Statistical analysis of failure data on controllers and SSME turbine blade failures

The expressions for the maximum likelihood functions are given when the failure data are censored at a given point or at multiple points, or when the data come in groups. Different models applicable to failure data are presented with their characteristics. A graphical method of distinguishing different models by using cumulative hazard fucnction is discussed. For the failure data on controllers the model is determined by cumulative hazard function and chi-square goodness of fit. Using the Weibull Model the maximum likelihood estimators of the shape parameter and the failure rate parameter are obtained. The confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and B1 are determined. Similarly, for the data on Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) blade failures the maximum likelihood estimators are obtained for the Weibull parameters. The variances, confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and reliability are determined. The analysis is performed under assumption of grouped data as well as randomly placed data.

Patil, S. A.↗

Statistical aspects of solar flares

A survey of the statistical properties of 850 H alpha solar flares during 1975 is presented. Comparison of the results found here with those reported elsewhere for different epochs is accomplished. Distributions of rise time, decay time, and duration are given, as are the mean, mode, median, and 90th percentile values. Proportions by selected groupings are also determined. For flares in general, mean values for rise time, decay time, and duration are 5.2 + or - 0.4 min, and 18.1 + or 1.1 min, respectively. Subflares, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the flares, had mean values lower than those found for flares of H alpha importance greater than 1, and the differences are statistically significant. Likewise, flares of bright and normal relative brightness have mean values of decay time and duration that are significantly longer than those computed for faint flares, and mass-motion related flares are significantly longer than non-mass-motion related flares. Seventy-three percent of the mass-motion related flares are categorized as being a two-ribbon flare and/or being accompanied by a high-speed dark filament. Slow rise time flares (rise time greater than 5 min) have a mean value for duration that is significantly longer than that computed for fast rise time flares, and long-lived duration flares (duration greater than 18 min) have a mean value for rise time that is significantly longer than that computed for short-lived duration flares, suggesting a positive linear relationship between rise time and duration for flares. Monthly occurrence rates for flares in general and by group are found to be linearly related in a positive sense to monthly sunspot number. Statistical testing reveals the association between sunspot number and numbers of flares to be significant at the 95 percent level of confidence, and the t statistic for slope is significant at greater than 99 percent level of confidence. Dependent upon the specific fit, between 58 percent and 94 percent of the variation can be accounted for with the linear fits. A statistically significant Northern Hemisphere flare excess (P less than 1 percent) was found, as was a Western Hemisphere excess (P approx 3 percent). Subflares were more prolific within 45 deg of central meridian (P less than 1 percent), while flares of H alpha importance or = 1 were more prolific near the limbs greater than 45 deg from central meridian; P approx 2 percent). Two-ribbon flares were more frequent within 45 deg of central meridian (P less than 1 percent). Slow rise time flares occurred more frequently in the western hemisphere (P approx 2 percent), as did short-lived duration flares (P approx 9 percent), but fast rise time flares were not preferentially distributed (in terms of east-west or limb-disk). Long-lived duration flares occurred more often within 45 deg 0 central meridian (P approx 7 percent). Mean durations for subflares and flares of H alpha importance or + 1, found within 45 deg of central meridian, are 14 percent and 70 percent, respectively, longer than those found for flares closer to the limb. As compared to flares occurring near cycle maximum, the flares of 1975 (near solar minimum) have mean values of rise time, decay time, and duration that are significantly shorter. A flare near solar maximum, on average, is about 1.6 times longer than one occurring near solar minimum.

Wilson, Robert M.↗