Results for “Computational Margin” — Page 12

DOE OSTI2024

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report (Rev.2)

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty propagation in pore water chemical composition calculation using surrogate models

Performance assessment in deep geological nuclear waste repository systems necessitates an extended knowledge of the pore water chemical conditions prevailing in host-rock formations. In the last two decades, important progress has been made in the experimental characterization and thermodynamic modeling of pore water speciation, but the influence of experimental artifacts and uncertainties of thermodynamic input parameters are seldom evaluated. In this respect, we conducted an uncertainty propagation study in a reference geochemical model describing the pore water chemistry of the Callovian-Oxfordian clay formation. Nineteen model input parameters were perturbed, including those associated to experimental characterization (leached anions, exchanged cations, cation exchange selectivity coefficients) and those associated to generic thermodynamic databases (solubilities). A set of 13 quantities of interest were studied by the use of polynomial chaos expansions built non-intrusively with a least-squares forward stepwise regression approach. Training and validation sets of simulations were carried out using the geochemical speciation code PHREEQC. The statistical results explored the marginal distribution of each quantity of interest, their bivariate correlations as well as their global sensitivity indices. The influence of the assumed distributions for input parameters uncertainties was evaluated by considering two parametric domain sizes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Contaminant Investigation and Pre‐Processing Opportunities for Textile‐To‐Textile Recycling

Millions of metric tons of textiles are landfilled or incinerated each year in the United States, with less than 1% of textiles recycled into new clothing or fabrics. To counter this trend, a growing number of companies and researchers are exploring how a circular economy can be applied to support textile‐to‐textile recycling. A significant barrier they face comes down to quickly and efficiently extracting pure feedstock material from post‐consumer garments that feature a mix of natural and synthetic fibers. Textile recyclers prefer pure feedstocks, as working with mixed sources typically means lower throughput, higher risk of equipment failure, and diminished business margins. To facilitate a circular economy for textiles, methods, and technologies are needed that can efficiently separate out materials and contaminants from end‐of‐life textiles to increase the flow of pure feedstocks to recyclers. This paper summarizes findings from interviews with a cross section of textile recyclers and from a review of literature to define basic feedstock requirements. In addition to our qualitative research, we deconstruct a bale of post‐consumer textiles and analyze them using computer‐vision imaging, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and machine learning. The resulting data are used to set system‐level design inputs for an automated contaminant removal system to process post‐consumer clothing into appropriate feedstocks for recycling. To set the system's levels for automated real‐time near‐infrared analysis, we identify the minimum percentage of primary material that any single garment in a load of used clothing must contain for the average of the full output stream to meet the target purity levels of recyclers. Here, the envisioned automated system can also address undesirable trace materials that might contaminate the processed stream by using imaging cameras coupled with artificial intelligence to identify sections of clothing for de‐trimming. Proof‐of‐concept machine learning algorithms are evaluated to locate and identify trims or garment areas with hidden contaminant materials. Integrating these methods into automated textile cutting systems can provide a cost‐effective means for increasing feedstock purity from used clothing, which can advance circularity for textiles by helping recyclers to reach production volumes and quality targets that were not possible solely with manual dismantling operations.

Parsons, Ryan [Rochester Institute of Technology, ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Flattening the Radial Temperature Profile across the Transformational Challenge Reactor Core

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is demonstrating an agile development approach to advanced nuclear reactor design, which has traditionally utilized a linear design process. In leveraging artificial intelligence, additive manufacturing, advanced materials, and cutting-edge modeling and simulation, the TCR program aims to minimize the high cost and lengthy deployment timelines now standard in the nuclear industry. Within a relatively short period of time, a robust and mature advanced gas-cooled reactor was iteratively designed under the TCR program, using these cutting-edge technologies. The TCR is a 3 MWt gas-cooled microreactor fueled with uranium nitride (UN) tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles. Though manufactured via traditional means, these UN TRISO particles are loaded into additively manufactured silicon carbide (SiC) cans [4]. Once loaded with TRISO particles, the SiC cans are densified using a chemical vapor infiltration process. The additively manufactured SiC enables significantly more freedom in the design of the fuel form than could ever be achieved using traditionally manufactured SiC. The helium coolant, pressurized to 5 MPa, enters the core at 300°C and nominally exits it at 500°C. Typically, the most thermally limiting components in any reactor design are the fuel assemblies in the core center. To provide a wide thermal margin in these central fuel assemblies, the flow may be biased toward the center of the core to more effectively cool these fuel assemblies with more power deposition and flatten the core’s radial temperature distribution. An analytical fluid model of the TCR core was developed to explore methods for biasing the flow away from the cooler outer fuel assemblies and towards the hotter inner ones. Higher-fidelity models developed in STAR-CCM+ 2020.3.1, a computational fluid dynamics code, were then utilized to verify the analytical model’s findings.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling gas–shell mixing in ICF with separated reactants

Mixing between fuel and shell materials in ICF implosions can affect implosion dynamics and even prevent ignition. We use data from a series of separated reactant experiments on the National Ignition Facility to calibrate and test the predictive power of gas–shell mix models. Two models are used to estimate fuel–shell mix: a Reynolds-averaged turbulence model and molecular diffusion. Minor uncertainties in capsule manufacture, experimental conditions, and values for mix model parameters produce significant variation in simulation results. Using input/output pairs from 1D simulations, we train Gaussian process surrogate models to predict experimental quantities of interest. The surrogates are used to construct posteriors for mix model parameters by marginalizing over uncertainties in capsule manufacture and experimental conditions. Mix models are calibrated with a subset of experimental data (neutron yields, ion temperature, and bang time) and tested using the remaining data. In general, both the diffusion and turbulence model correctly predict experimental DT and TT neutron yields. Despite having more free parameters, the turbulence model underpredicts ion temperature at high convergence ratio. Furthermore, the simpler diffusion model correctly predicts these temperatures, suggesting nonhydrodynamic gas–shell mix. The computational model consistently overpredicts DD neutron yield, indicating possible shortcomings outside of the mix model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

cerf: A Python package to evaluate the feasibility and costs of power plant siting for alternative futures

Long-term electric power sector planning and capacity expansion is a key area of interest to stakeholders across a wide range of organizations because it helps in making informed decisions about investments in infrastructure within the context of potential future vulnerabilities under various natural and human stressors. Future power plant siting costs will depend on a number of factors including the characteristics of the electricity capacity expansion and electricity demand (e.g., fuel mix of future electric power capacity, and the magnitude and geographic distribution of electricity demand growth) as well as the geographic location of power plants. Electricity technology capacity expansion plans modeled to represent alternate future conditions meeting a set of scenario assumptions are traditionally compared against historical trends which may not be consistent with current and future conditions. We present the `cerf` Python package (a.k.a., the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility model) which helps evaluate the feasibility and structure of future, scenario-driven electricity capacity expansion plans by siting power plants in areas that have been deemed the least cost option while considering dynamic future conditions. We can use `cerf` to gain insight to research topics such as: 1) under what conditions future projected electricity expansion plans from models such as GCAM-USA are possible to achieve, 2) where and which on-the-ground barriers to siting (e.g., protected areas, cooling water availability) may influence our ability to achieve certain expansions, and 3) how electricity infrastructure build-outs and value may evolve into the future when considering locational marginal pricing (LMP) based on the supply and demand of electricity from a grid operations model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Emission from hadronic and leptonic processes in galactic jet-driven bubbles

ABSTRACT We investigate the multiwavelength emission from hadronic and leptonic cosmic rays (CRs) in bubbles around galaxies, analogous to the Fermi bubbles of the Milky Way. The bubbles are modelled using 3D magnetohydrodynamical simulations, and are driven by a 0.3 Myr intense explosive outburst from the nucleus of Milky Way-like galaxies. We compute their non-thermal emission properties at different stages throughout their evolution, up to 7 Myr, by post-processing the simulations. We compare the spectral and spatial signatures of bubbles with hadronic, leptonic, and hybrid hadro-leptonic CR compositions. These each show broadly similar emission spectra, comprised of radio synchrotron, inverse Compton, and non-thermal bremsstrahlung components. However, hadronic and hybrid bubbles were found to be brighter than leptonic bubbles in X-rays, and marginally less bright at radio frequencies, and in γ-rays between ∼0.1 and a few 10s of GeV, with a large part of their emission being driven by secondary electrons formed in hadronic interactions. Hadronic systems were also found to be slightly brighter in high-energy γ-rays than their leptonic counterparts, owing to the π0 decay emission that dominates their emission between energies of 100s of GeV and a few TeV.

Owen, Ellis R. (ORCID:0000000310526439)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rancor-HUNTER: A Virtual Plant and Operator Environment for Predicting Human Performance

Advances in simulation capabilities to model physical systems have outpaced the development of simulations for humans using those physical systems. There is an argument that the infinite span of potential human behaviors inherently render human modeling more challenging than physical systems. Despite this challenge, the need for modeling humans interacting with these complex systems is paramount. As technologies have improved, many of the failure modes originating from the physical systems have been solved. This means the overall proportion of human errors has increased, such that it is not uncommon to be the primary driver of system failure in modern complex systems. Moreover, technologies such as automated systems may introduce emerging contexts that can cause new, unanticipated modes of human error. Therefore, it is now more important than ever to develop models of human behavior to realize overall system error reductions and achieve established safety margins. To support new and novel concepts of operations for the anticipated wave of advanced nuclear reactor deployments, human factors and human reliability analysis researchers need to develop advanced simulation-based approaches. This talk presents a simulation environment suitable to both collect data and then perform Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate human performance and develop better models of human behavior. Specifically, the Rancor Microworld Simulator models a complex energy production system in a simplified manner. Rancor includes computer-based procedures, which serve as a framework to automatically classify human behaviors without manual, subjective experimenter coding during scenarios. This method supports a detailed level of analysis at the task level. It is feasible for collecting large sample sizes required to develop quantitative modelling elements that have historically challenged traditional full-scope simulator study approaches. Additionally, the other portion of this experimental platform, the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), is presented to show how the collected data can be used to evaluate novel scenarios based on the contextual factors, or performance shaping factors, derived from Rancor simulations. Rancor-HUNTER is being used to predict operator performance with new procedures, such as results from control room modernization or new-build situations. Rancor-HUNTER is also proving a useful surrogate platform to model human performance for other complex systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

D$e^+e^-$ffusion: Capturing the Beam-Beam Physics of $e^+e^-$ Collisions with Diffusion Models

Beam-induced backgrounds at high-luminosity $e^+e^-$ colliders, such as the FCC-ee, are dominated by incoherent pair creation (IPC), and require computationally expensive simulations with dedicated Monte Carlo (MC) event generators. Reliable detector and machine-detector interface studies necessitate event samples that are several orders of magnitude larger than what is practically attainable with existing MC. To alleviate this bottleneck, we present D$e^+e^-$ffusion, a denoising diffusion probabilistic model that operates as a permutation-equivariant, set-valued surrogate for fast IPC simulation. Trained on a small GuineaPig++ sample, D$e^+e^-$ffusion faithfully reproduces the marginal and joint kinematic, angular, and positional distributions of all three IPC production processes. In addition, we assess the fidelity at the detector level by propagating both Geant4 and D$e^+e^-$ffusion events through a Geant4 simulation of the CLD vertex detector and by training a transformer-based two-sample classifier; the classifier achieves an area under the ROC curve of $0.553 \pm 0.016$. The trained model generates events nearly four orders of magnitude faster than Geant4, paving the way for a fast-simulation surrogate for FCC-ee design studies.

Chahine, Antonio [Imperial Coll., London]↗

DOE OSTI2025

ON THE LANGUAGE OF RELIABILITY: A SYSTEM ENGINEER PERSPECTIVE

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences and how likely is it to occur. While this definition makes sense in a regulatory based framework to estimate risk associated to power plants (in terms of core damage frequency and large early release frequency), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant. A possible alternate path can start by redefining the word “risk” to a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision making process. Rather than asking how likely an event can occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. We will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring/diagnostic/prognostic centers, a margin can be described and determined for all type of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We will show how to link SSC margin-based reliability models to system reliability models (i.e., fault trees) in order to assess system/plant health and how to perform margin-based system calculations. These calculations are not solved using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed by any PRA code) but, instead, through metric spaces operations (i.e., distance/margin based approach).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

STAT7 v1.2 User Guide: The STAT7 Code for Statistical Propagation of Uncertainties in Steady-State Thermal Hydraulics Analysis of Plate-Fueled Reactors

The STAT7 software was developed to perform steady-state, single-phase thermal hydraulics analysis of plate-fueled reactors based on statistical propagation of uncertainties. Application of the software is for non-power research and test reactors, including conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors such as Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor. Since it can be necessary to repeat analysis during fuel reloading, STAT7 accommodates flexibility in analyzing many realistic aspects of reactor fuel management. STAT7 uses a Monte Carlo approach to model uncertainty in common fuel fabrication parameters and other key reactor operating parameters required for thermal hydraulics analyses of research and test reactors. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux, or onset of flow instability. STAT7 supports water properties based on the IAPWS-IF97 functions (The International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam Industrial Formulation 1997 for the Thermodynamic Properties of Water and Steam) in addition to the fit functions. STAT7 predicts axial profiles of fuel, cladding, and coolant temperature along a lateral stripe that runs the full length of the fuel plate from the bottom to the top. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze all of the axial nodes of all of the fuel plates and all of the coolant channels for one latera stripe of a fuel element. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. By running STAT7 multiple times, full core analysis can be performed by analyzing the margin to onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each fuel element in the core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (CTC) Report

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline training to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), and the test information management system (TIMS).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

TRUST Nonlinear Dynamics (ND) Report

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline training to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), and the test information management system (TIMS).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (TRUST-CTC) Report: FY23

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline training to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), test information management system (TIMS), and [WAVES] Analysis for Verified Engineering Simulation (WAVES).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced multimaterial shape optimization methods as applied to advanced manufacturing of wind turbine generators

Abstract Currently, many utility‐scale wind turbine generator original equipment manufacturers are dependent on imported rare earth permanent magnets, which are susceptible to market risks from cost instability. To lower the production costs of these generators and stay competitive in the market, several small wind manufacturers are pursuing continuous improvements to both generator design and manufacturing. However, traditional design and manufacturing methods have yielded marginal improvements in wind power performance. This work presents novel methods to redesign a baseline 15‐kW wind turbine generator with reduced rare‐earth permanent magnets by leveraging cutting‐edge three‐dimensional (3D) printed polymer‐bonded permanent magnets and steel. Symmetric, asymmetric, and multimaterial‐magnet parametrization methods are introduced for shape optimization. We extend the symmetric and asymmetric methods to the back iron in the stator to further investigate the impact and opportunities for performance improvements with lesser active materials. We employ a design‐of‐experiments approach with parametric computer‐aided design for shape generation and evaluate different designs by magneto‐thermal modeling and finite‐element analysis. We use adaptive sampling technique to identify better performing designs with lesser magnet mass, higher efficiency, and lower cogging torque when compared with the baseline generator. Asymmetric pole designs resulted in a magnet mass in the range of 4.77–5.37 kg, which was 27%–35% lighter than the baseline generator, suggesting that a new design freedom exists that can be enabled by advanced manufacturing, such as 3D printing. Shaping the back iron in the stator resulted in material savings in electrical steel of up to 14.62 kg, which was 20% lighter than the baseline stator. We conducted a structural analysis to evaluate an optimized asymmetric rotor design from the point of view of mechanical integrity and air‐gap stiffness. The magnetically optimal shape profile was shown as having a positive impact on the radial stiffness, and an optimal solution was discovered to reduce the structural mass by nearly 30 kg, which was 29% lighter than the baseline.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Demonstration of the Plant Fuel Reload Process Optimization for an Operating PWR

The United States (U.S.) nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to maintain regulatory-required levels of safety while ensuring economic competitiveness to stay in business. Safety remains a key parameter for all aspects related to the operation of light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) and can be achieved more economically by using a risk-informed ecosystem such as that being developed by the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. The LWRS Program is promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) activities with the goal to maximize both the safety and economically efficient performance of NPPs through improved scientific understanding, especially given that many plants are considering second license renewal. The RISA Pathway has two main goals: (1) the deployment of methodologies and technologies that enable better representation of safety margins and the factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) the development of advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. This report summarizes the research outcomes in FY-2021, which the project progressed from the planning and methodology development phase to the early demonstration phase. The highlights of these activities are: (1) the development of a multi-objective optimization process using Genetic Algorithms (GAs); (2) the development and test of an approach for optimization process acceleration using artificial intelligence (AI) that significantly reduces the computational burden; (3) the demonstration of the fuel reload optimization framework for a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR); and (4) the demonstration of limiting design basis accident (DBA) scenarios for evaluation of the transition from deterministic to risk-informed approach for fuel reload optimization.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗