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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Scaling Laws of Graph Neural Networks for Atomistic Materials Modeling

Atomistic materials modeling is a critical task with wide-ranging applications, from drug discovery to materials science, where accurate predictions of the target material property can lead to significant advancements in scientific discovery. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) represent the state-of-the-art approach for modeling atomistic material data thanks to their capacity to capture complex relational structures. While machine learning performance has historically improved with larger models and datasets, GNNs for atomistic materials modeling remain relatively small compared to large language models (LLMs), which leverage billions of parameters and terabyte-scale datasets to achieve remarkable performance in their respective domains. To address this gap, we explore the scaling limits of GNNs for atomistic materials modeling by developing a foundational model with billions of parameters, trained on extensive datasets in terabytescale. Our approach incorporates techniques from LLM libraries to efficiently manage large-scale data and models, enabling both effective training and deployment of these large-scale GNN models. This work addresses three fundamental questions in scaling GNNs: the potential for scaling GNN model architectures, the effect of dataset size on model accuracy, and the applicability of LLM-inspired techniques to GNN architectures. Specifically, the outcomes of this study include (1) insights into the scaling laws for GNNs, highlighting the relationship between model size, dataset volume, and accuracy, (2) a foundational GNN model optimized for atomistic materials modeling, and (3) a GNN codebase enhanced with advanced LLM-based training techniques. Our findings lay the groundwork for large-scale GNNs with billions of parameters and terabyte-scale datasets, establishing a scalable pathway for future advancements in atomistic materials modeling.

Li, Chaojian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000340309777)↗

Graph Neural Networks for Particle Reconstruction in High Energy Physics detectors

Pattern recognition problems in high energy physics are notably different from traditional machine learning applications in computer vision. Reconstruction algorithms identify and measure the kinematic properties of particles produced in high energy collisions and recorded with complex detector systems. Two critical applications are the reconstruction of charged particle trajectories in tracking detectors and the reconstruction of particle showers in calorimeters. These two problems have unique challenges and characteristics, but both have high dimensionality, high degree of sparsity, and complex geometric layouts. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are a relatively new class of deep learning architectures which can deal with such data effectively, allowing scientists to incorporate domain knowledge in a graph structure and learn powerful representations leveraging that structure to identify patterns of interest. In this work we demonstrate the applicability of GNNs to these two diverse particle reconstruction problems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Identifying environmentally induced calibration changes in cryogenic RF axion detector systems using deep neural networks

The axion is a compelling hypothetical particle that could account for the dark matter in our universe while simultaneously solving the strong CP problem in quantum chromodynamics. The most sensitive axion detection technique demonstrated so far makes use of a high Q cavity immersed in a strong magnetic field, where axions are converted to microwave photons. This is called an axion haloscope and has primarily targeted the 1–10 GHz range. As searches scan up in axion mass, toward the parameter space favored by theoretical predictions, individual cavity sizes decrease in order to achieve higher frequencies. This shrinking cavity volume translates directly to a loss in signal-to-noise, motivating the plan to replace individual cavity detectors with arrays of cavities. When the transition from one to (N) multiple cavities occurs, haloscope searches are anticipated to become much more complicated to operate, requiring N times as many measurements but also the new requirement that N detectors operate in unison, which can be achieved by locking them to a common frequency. To offset this anticipated increase in detector complexity, we aim to develop new tools for diagnosing experiments using neural networks. Current experiments monitor scattering parameters of their receiver for periodically measuring cavity quality factor and coupling. However, off-resonant data remain relatively useless. In this paper, we ask if it is possible that off-resonant information contained in vector network analyzer scans could be used to diagnose equipment failures/anomalies and measure physical conditions (e.g., temperatures and ambient magnetic field). We demonstrate a proof-of-concept that AI techniques can help manage the complexity of an axion haloscope search for operators.

Engel, Andrew W. [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

nn-PINNs: Non-Newtonian physics-informed neural networks for complex fluid modeling

Time- and rate-dependent material functions in non-Newtonian fluids in response to different deformation fields pose a challenge in integrating different constitutive models into conventional computational fluid dynamic platforms. Considering their relevance in many industrial and natural settings alike, robust data-driven frameworks that enable accurate modeling of these complex fluids are of great interest. The main goal is to solve the coupled Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) consisting of the constitutive equations that relate the shear stress to the deformation and fully capture the behavior of the fluid under various flow protocols with different boundary conditions. Here, in this work, we present non-Newtonian physics-informed neural networks (nn-PINNs) for solving systems of coupled PDEs adopted for complex fluid flow modeling. The proposed nn-PINN method is employed to solve the constitutive models in conjunction with conservation of mass and momentum by benefiting from Automatic Differentiation (AD) in neural networks, hence avoiding the mesh generation step. nn-PINNs are tested for a number of different complex fluids with different constitutive models and for several flow protocols. These include a range of Generalized Newtonian Fluid (GNF) empirical constitutive models, as well as some phenomenological models with memory effects and thixotropic timescales. nn-PINNs are found to obtain the correct solution of complex fluids in spatiotemporal domains with good accuracy compared to the ground truth solution. We also present applications of nn-PINNs for complex fluid modeling problems with unknown boundary conditions on the surface, and show that our approach can successfully recover the velocity and stress fields across the domain, including the boundaries, given some sparse velocity measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Neural-network based collision operators for the Boltzmann equation

Kinetic gas dynamics in rarefied and moderate-density regimes have complex behavior associated with collisional processes. These processes are generally defined by convolution integrals over a high-dimensional space (as in the Boltzmann operator), or require evaluating complex auxiliary variables (as in Rosenbluth potentials in Fokker-Planck operators) that are challenging to implement and computationally expensive to evaluate. In this work, we develop a data-driven neural network model that augments a simple and inexpensive BGK collision operator with a machine-learned correction term, which improves the fidelity of the simple operator with a small overhead to overall runtime. The composite collision operator has a tunable fidelity and, in this work, is trained using and tested against a direct-simulation Monte-Carlo (DSMC) collision operator.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Online thermal profile prediction for large format additive manufacturing: A hybrid CNN-LSTM based approach

Large format additive manufacturing (LFAM) is an advanced 3D printing technique that efficiently fabricates large-scale components through a layer-by-layer extrusion and deposition process. Accurate surface layer temperature monitoring is essential to prevent manufacturing failures and ensure final product quality. Traditional physics-based offline approaches for simulating thermal behavior are often inefficient and complex, posing challenges on real-time, in-situ monitoring. Here, to address this, we propose a data-driven hybrid CNN-LSTM model to predict sequential thermal images of arbitrary length using real-time infrared thermal imaging. In this approach, a Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is trained offline to capture spatial features, reduce dimensional complexity, and enhance time efficiency, while a stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is applied online to capture temporal information for improved prediction of future thermal behavior in subsequent printing layers. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, SSIM, and PSNR metrics and is benchmarked against stacked LSTM and convolutional LSTM models, demonstrating superior accuracy and applicability. Additionally, to mitigate noise from moving extruders and gantry backgrounds in thermal images, a fine-tuned semantic segmentation model is implemented offline to extract printing geometry, enabling precise temperature tracking along the tool path for further thermal analysis. The frameworks developed in this study significantly advance temperature monitoring, thermal analysis, and in-situ manufacturing control for LFAM, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and practical application.

Geometry extraction↗

Inductive predictions of hydrologic events using a Long Short-Term Memory network and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

We present machine learning methods to predict hydrologic features such as streamflow and soil moisture from spatially and temporally varying hydrological and meteorological data. Here, we used a temporal reduction technique to reduce computation and memory requirements and trained a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to predict soil moisture and streamflow over multiple watersheds. We show LSTM networks can be trained in a fraction of the time required by complex process-based and attention-based models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and GeoMAN without sacrificing accuracy. We also demonstrate that outside data - sourced from a watershed other than the target - can be used to train LSTM to comparable or even superior prediction accuracy. The success of LSTM in such spatially-inductive settings shows hydrologic features can be predicted with minimal prior knowledge of the watershed in question. Finally, we make all methodologies of this work publicly available as an end-to-end software pipeline that facilitates rapid prototyping of hydrologic learners.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Streamlining Ocean Dynamics Modeling with Fourier Neural Operators: A Multiobjective Hyperparameter and Architecture Optimization Approach

Training an effective deep learning model to learn ocean processes involves careful choices of various hyperparameters. We leverage DeepHyper’s advanced search algorithms for multiobjective optimization, streamlining the development of neural networks tailored for ocean modeling. The focus is on optimizing Fourier neural operators (FNOs), a data-driven model capable of simulating complex ocean behaviors. Selecting the correct model and tuning the hyperparameters are challenging tasks, requiring much effort to ensure model accuracy. DeepHyper allows efficient exploration of hyperparameters associated with data preprocessing, FNO architecture-related hyperparameters, and various model training strategies. We aim to obtain an optimal set of hyperparameters leading to the most performant model. Moreover, on top of the commonly used mean squared error for model training, we propose adopting the negative anomaly correlation coefficient as the additional loss term to improve model performance and investigate the potential trade-off between the two terms. The numerical experiments show that the optimal set of hyperparameters enhanced model performance in single timestepping forecasting and greatly exceeded the baseline configuration in the autoregressive rollout for long-horizon forecasting up to 30 days. Utilizing DeepHyper, we demonstrate an approach to enhance the use of FNO in ocean dynamics forecasting, offering a scalable solution with improved precision.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Edge of Exploration: An Edge Storage and Computing Framework for Ambient Noise Seismic Interferometry Using Internet of Things Based Sensor Networks

Recent technological advances have reduced the complexity and cost of developing sensor networks for remote environmental monitoring. However, the challenges of acquiring, transmitting, storing, and processing remote environmental data remain significant. The transmission of large volumes of sensor data to a centralized location (i.e., the cloud) burdens network resources, introduces latency and jitter, and can ultimately impact user experience. Edge computing has emerged as a paradigm in which substantial storage and computing resources are located at the “edge” of the network. In this paper, we present an edge storage and computing framework leveraging commercially available components organized in a tiered architecture and arranged in a hub-and-spoke topology. The framework includes a popular distributed database to support the acquisition, transmission, storage, and processing of Internet-of-Things-based sensor network data in a field setting. We present details regarding the architecture, distributed database, embedded systems, and topology used to implement an edge-based solution. Lastly, a real-world case study (i.e., seismic) is presented that leverages the edge storage and computing framework to acquire, transmit, store, and process millions of samples of data per hour.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Computing water flow through complex landscapes – Part 2: Finding hierarchies in depressions and morphological segmentations

Depressions – inwardly draining regions of digital elevation models – present difficulties for terrain analysis and hydrological modeling. Analogous “depressions” also arise in image processing and morphological segmentation, where they may represent noise, features of interest, or both. Here we provide a new data structure – the depression hierarchy – that captures the full topologic and topographic complexity of depressions in a region. We treat depressions as networks in a way that is analogous to surface-water flow paths, in which individual sub-depressions merge together to form meta-depressions in a process that continues until they begin to drain externally. This hierarchy can be used to selectively fill or breach depressions or to accelerate dynamic models of hydrological flow. Complete, well-commented, open-source code and correctness tests are available on GitHub and Zenodo.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-Informed Neural Network Solution of Point Kinetics Equations for a Nuclear Reactor Digital Twin

A digital twin (DT) for nuclear reactor monitoring can be implemented using either a differential equations-based physics model or a data-driven machine learning model. The challenge of a physics-model-based DT consists of achieving sufficient model fidelity to represent a complex experimental system, whereas the challenge of a data-driven DT consists of extensive training requirements and a potential lack of predictive ability. We investigate the performance of a hybrid approach, which is based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that encode fundamental physical laws into the loss function of the neural network. We develop a PINN model to solve the point kinetic equations (PKEs), which are time-dependent, stiff, nonlinear, ordinary differential equations that constitute a nuclear reactor reduced-order model under the approximation of ignoring spatial dependence of the neutron flux. The PINN model solution of PKEs is developed to monitor the start-up transient of Purdue University Reactor Number One (PUR-1) using experimental parameters for the reactivity feedback schedule and the neutron source. The results demonstrate strong agreement between the PINN solution and finite difference numerical solution of PKEs. We investigate PINNs performance in both data interpolation and extrapolation. For the test cases considered, the extrapolation errors are comparable to those of interpolation predictions. Extrapolation accuracy decreases with increasing time interval.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Predicting Drug Effects from High-dimensional Asymmetric Drug Data Sets using Graph Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Analysis of Multi-target Drug Effect Prediction

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as one of the most effective Machine learning (ML) techniques for drug effect prediction from drug molecular graphs. Despite having immense potential, GNN models lack performance when using data sets that contain high dimensional asymmetrically co-occurrent drug effects as targets with complex correlations between them. Training individual learning models for each drug effect and incorporating every prediction result for a wide spectrum of drug effects is beyond practicality. Such an implication provides a testbed to address this challenge as multi-target prediction problems, aiming to predict all drug effects at a time. We develop standard and hybrid graph neural networks (GNNs)to perform two separate tasks that are multi-regression for continuous values and multi-label classification for categorical values contained in our data sets. Since this step makes the target data even more sparse and introduces asymmetric label co-occurrence, the learning of multi-label classification models becomes difficult and heavily impacts the GNN's performance. To address these challenges, we propose a new data oversampling technique to improve multi-label classification performances on all the given imbalanced molecular graph data sets. Using the technique, we improve the data imbalance ratio of the drug effects better than before while protecting the data set's integrity. Finally, we evaluate multi-label classification performance using the best-performant hybrid GNN model on all the oversampled data sets obtained from the proposed oversampling technique. These results outperform those of other ML models including GNN models when they are trained on the original data sets or oversampled data sets using MLSMOTE (a well-known oversampling technique) in all evaluation metrics precision, recall, and F1 score by a significant margin.

Bose, Avishek [ORNL]↗

5G Enabled Energy Innovation: Advanced Wireless Networks for Science (Workshop Report)

Rapidly expanding, new telecommunications infrastructure based on 5G technologies will disrupt and transform how we design, build, operate, and optimize scientific infrastructure and the experiments and services enabled by that infrastructure, from continental-scale sensor networks to centralized scientific user facilities, from intelligent Internet of Things devices to supercomputers. Concurrently, 5G will introduce, or exacerbate, challenges related to protecting infrastructure and associated scientific data as well as to fully leveraging opportunities related to expanded infrastructure scale and complexity. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science operates scientific infrastructure, supporting some of the nation’s most advanced intellectual discoveries, spanning the country and including 30 world-class user facilities from supercomputers to accelerators. Along with field experiments and remote observatories, every aspect of DOE’s scientific enterprise will be affected by 5G, which amounts to a complete renovation of the underpinnings of the nation’s information infrastructure. In this report we explore the scientific opportunities and new research challenges associated with 5G, ranging from scalability to heterogeneity to cybersecurity. The rapid commercial deployment of 5G opens the opportunity to rethink and reinvent DOE’s scientific infrastructure and experimentation, from intelligent sensor networks at unprecedented scales to a digital continuum of cyberinfrastructure spanning low-power sensors, high-performance computing embedded within and at the edge of the network, and DOE’s large-scale user instrument and computing facilities. New programming paradigms, workflow and data frameworks, and AI-based system design, operation, and autonomous adaptation and optimization will be necessary in order to exploit these new opportunities. Field deployments and centralized scientific instruments can also be revolutionized, moving (without traditional performance penalties) from wired to wireless connectivity for data and control systems, improving flexibility, and opening new sensing modalities, including the use of the 5G electromagnetic spectrum itself as an environmental probe. For DOE science, in contrast to commercial 5G applications and settings, devices will be deployed in extreme environments such as cryogenically cooled instrument control systems and in remote settings with harsh conditions, requiring the design of new materials for RF communication and edge processing to operate in these regimes. Concurrently, 5G infrastructure comprises both hardware and sophisticated software systems - currently closed and proprietary. The cybersecurity challenges to 5G-empowered reinvention mirror the complexity and variety of new 5G features, from virtualization to private network slices to ubiquitous access. Research is also needed in order to accelerate the development of secure and open 5G software infrastructure, reducing reliance on hardware and software produced outside the United States and providing the transparency and rigorous evaluation and testing afforded through open software. Twelve broad research thrusts are laid out in four chapters, with a companion fifth chapter (and three additional research thrusts) underscoring the needs and opportunities for an aggressive testbed program co-designed by networking experts and scientists involved in the 15 research thrusts. The urgency of undertaking this research is fueled by a global, accelerating deployment of new telecommunications infrastructure that is designed for entertainment and commercial applications - barely scratching the surface of what 5G can do to extend U.S. leadership in scientific discovery.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NSFnets (Navier-Stokes flow nets): Physics-informed neural networks for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations

In the last 50 years there has been a tremendous progress in solving numerically the Navier-Stokes equations using finite differences, finite elements, spectral, and even meshless methods. Yet, in many real cases, we still cannot incorporate seamlessly (multi-fidelity) data into existing algorithms, and for industrial-complexity applications the mesh generation is time consuming and still an art. Moreover, solving ill-posed problems (e.g., lacking boundary conditions) or inverse problems is often prohibitively expensive and requires different formulations and new computer codes. Here, we employ physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), encoding the governing equations directly into the deep neural network via automatic differentiation, to overcome some of the aforementioned limitations for simulating incompressible laminar and turbulent flows. We develop the Navier-Stokes flow nets (NSFnets) by considering two different mathematical formulations of the Navier-Stokes equations: the velocity-pressure (VP) formulation and the vorticity-velocity (VV) formulation. Since this is a new approach, we first select some standard benchmark problems to assess the accuracy, convergence rate, computational cost and flexibility of NSFnets; analytical solutions and direct numerical simulation (DNS) databases provide proper initial and boundary conditions for the NSFnet simulations. The spatial and temporal coordinates are the inputs of the NSFnets, while the instantaneous velocity and pressure fields are the outputs for the VP-NSFnet, and the instantaneous velocity and vorticity fields are the outputs for the VV-NSFnet. This is unsupervised learning and, hence, no labeled data are required beyond boundary and initial conditions and the fluid properties. The residuals of the VP or VV governing equations, together with the initial and boundary conditions, are embedded into the loss function of the NSFnets. No data is provided for the pressure to the VP-NSFnet, which is a hidden state and is obtained via the incompressibility constraint without extra computational cost. Unlike the traditional numerical methods, NSFnets inherit the properties of neural networks (NNs), hence the total error is composed of the approximation, the optimization, and the generalization errors. Here, we empirically attempt to quantify these errors by varying the sampling (“residual”) points, the iterative solvers, and the size of the NN architecture. For the laminar flow solutions, we show that both the VP and the VV formulations are comparable in accuracy but their best performance corresponds to different NN architectures. The initial convergence rate is fast but the error eventually saturates to a plateau due to the dominance of the optimization error. For the turbulent channel flow, we show that NSFnets can sustain turbulence at , but due to expensive training we only consider part of the channel domain and enforce velocity boundary conditions on the subdomain boundaries provided by the DNS data base. We also perform a systematic study on the weights used in the loss function for balancing the data and physics components, and investigate a new way of computing the weights dynamically to accelerate training and enhance accuracy. In the last part, we demonstrate how NSFnets should be used in practice, namely for ill-posed problems with incomplete or noisy boundary conditions as well as for inverse problems. We obtain reasonably accurate solutions for such cases as well without the need to change the NSFnets and at the same computational cost as in the forward well-posed problems. As a result, we also present a simple example of transfer learning that will aid in accelerating the training of NSFnets for different parameter settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A comparison of Gaussian processes and neural networks for computer model emulation and calibration

The Department of Energy relies on complex physics simulations for prediction in domains like cosmology, nuclear theory, and materials science. These simulations are often extremely computationally intensive, with some requiring days or weeks for a single simulation. In order to assure their accuracy, these models are calibrated against observational data in order to estimate inputs and systematic biases. Because of their great computational complexity, this process typically requires the construction of an emulator, a fast approximation to the simulation. In this paper, two emulator approaches are compared: Gaussian process regression and neural networks. Their emulation accuracy and calibration performance on three real problems of Department of Energy interest is considered. On these problems, the Gaussian process emulator tends to be more accurate with narrower, but still well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The neural network emulator is accurate, but tends to have large uncertainty on its predictions. Finally, as a result, calibration with the Gaussian process emulator produces more constrained posteriors that still perform well in prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗