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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The Land Sparing, Water Surface Use Efficiency, and Water Surface Transformation of Floating Photovoltaic Solar Energy Installations

Floating photovoltaic solar energy installations (FPVs) represent a new type of water surface use, potentially sparing land needed for agriculture and conservation. However, standardized metrics for the land sparing and resource use efficiencies of FPVs are absent. These metrics are critical to understanding the environmental and ecological impacts that FPVs may potentially exhibit. Here, we compared techno-hydrological and spatial attributes of four FPVs spanning different climatic regimes. Next, we defined and quantified the land sparing and water surface use efficiency (WSUE) of each FPV. Lastly, we coined and calculated the water surface transformation (WST) using generation data at the world’s first FPV (Far Niente Winery, California). The four FPVs spare 59,555 m2 of land and have a mean land sparing ratio of 2.7:1 m2 compared to ground-mounted PVs. Mean direct and total capacity-based WSUE is 94.5 ± 20.1 SD Wm−2 and 35.2 ± 27.4 SD Wm−2, respectively. Direct and total generation-based WST at Far Niente is 9.3 and 13.4 m2 MWh−1 yr−1, respectively; 2.3 times less area than ground-mounted utility-scale PVs. Our results reveal diverse techno-hydrological and spatial attributes of FPVs, the capacity of FPVs to spare land, and the utility of WSUE and WST metrics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality

Decisions about solar geoengineering (SG) entail risk–risk tradeoffs between the direct risks of SG and SG’s ability to reduce climate risks. Quantitative comparisons between these risks are needed to inform public policy. We evaluate idealized SG’s effectiveness in reducing deaths from warming using two climate models and an econometric analysis of temperature-attributable mortality. We find SG’s impact on temperature-attributable mortality is uneven with decreases for hotter, poorer regions and increases in cooler, richer regions. Relative to no SG, global mortality is reduced by over 400,000 deaths annually [90% CI: (−1.2 million,2.7 million)] for cooling of 1 °C from 2.5 °C above preindustrial in 2080. We find no evidence that mortality reduction achieved by SG is smaller than the reduction from equivalent cooling by emissions reductions. Combining our estimates with existing estimates of sulphate aerosol injection direct mortality risk from air quality and UV-attributable cancer enables the first quantitative risk-risk comparison of SG. We estimate with 61% probability that the mortality benefits of cooling outweigh these direct SG risks. We find the benefits outweigh these risks by 13 times for our central estimates, or 4 deaths per 100,000 per 1 °C per year [90% CI: (−11,23)]. This is not a comprehensive evaluation of the risk–risk tradeoffs around SG, yet by comparing some of the most consequential impacts on human welfare it is a useful first step. While these findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions, considerable uncertainties remain and require further investigation.

Harding, Anthony (ORCID:0000000262898253)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Emergence of soil bacterial ecotypes along a climate gradient: Soil ecotypes along a climate gradient

The high diversity of soil bacteria is attributed to the spatial complexity of soil systems, where habitat heterogeneity promotes niche partitioning among bacterial taxa. This premise remains challenging to test, however, as it requires quantifying the traits of closely related soil bacteria and relating these traits to bacterial abundances and geographic distributions. In this work, we sought to investigate whether the widespread soil taxon Curtobacterium consists of multiple coexisting ecotypes with differential geographic distributions. We isolated Curtobacterium strains from six sites along a climate gradient and assayed four functional traits that may contribute to niche partitioning in leaf litter, the top layer of soil. Our results revealed that cultured isolates separated into fine-scale genetic clusters that reflected distinct suites of phenotypic traits, denoting the existence of multiple ecotypes. We then quantified the distribution of Curtobacterium by analysing metagenomic data collected across the gradient over 18 months. Six abundant ecotypes were observed with differential abundances along the gradient, suggesting fine-scale niche partitioning. However, we could not clearly explain observed geographic distributions of ecotypes by relating their traits to environmental variables. Thus, while we can resolve soil bacterial ecotypes, the traits delineating their distinct niches in the environment remain unclear.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mountain biodiversity and ecosystem functions: interplay between geology and contemporary environments

Although biodiversity and ecosystem functions are strongly shaped by contemporary environments, such as climate and local biotic and abiotic attributes, relatively little is known about how they depend on long-term geological processes. Here, along a 3000-m elevational gradient with tectonic faults on the Tibetan Plateau (that is, Galongla Mountain in Medog County, China), we study the joint effects of geological and contemporary environments on biological communities, such as the diversity and community composition of plants and soil bacteria, and ecosystem functions. We find that these biological communities and ecosystem functions generally show consistent elevational breakpoints at 2000–2800 m, which coincide with Indus-Yalu suture zone fault and are similar to the elevational breakpoints of soil bacteria on another mountain range 1000 km away. Mean annual temperature, soil pH and moisture are the primary contemporary determinants of biodiversity and ecosystem functions, which support previous findings. However, compared with the models excluding geological processes, inclusion of geological effects, such as parent rock and weathering, increases 67.9 and 35.9% of the explained variations in plant and bacterial communities, respectively. Such inclusion increases 27.6% of the explained variations in ecosystem functions. The geological processes thus provide additional links to ecosystem properties, which are prominent but show divergent effects on biodiversity and ecosystem functions: parent rock and weathering exert considerable direct effects on biodiversity, whereas indirectly influence ecosystem functions via interactions with biodiversity and contemporary environments. Thus, the integration of geological processes with environmental gradients could enhance our understanding of biodiversity and, ultimately, ecosystem functioning across different climatic zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades

Formal detection and attribution studies have used observations and climate models to identify an anthropogenic warming signature in the upper (0–700 m) ocean1,2,3,4. Recently, as a result of the so-called surface warming hiatus, there has been considerable interest in global ocean heat content (OHC) changes in the deeper ocean, including natural and anthropogenically forced changes identified in observational5,6,7, modelling8,9 and data re-analysis10,11 studies. Here, we examine OHC changes in the context of the Earth’s global energy budget since early in the industrial era (circa 1865–2015) for a range of depths. We rely on OHC change estimates from a diverse collection of measurement systems including data from the nineteenth-century Challenger expedition12, a multi-decadal record of ship-based in situ mostly upper-ocean measurements, the more recent near-global Argo floats profiling to intermediate (2,000 m) depths13, and full-depth repeated transoceanic sections5. We show that the multi-model mean constructed from the current generation of historically forced climate models is consistent with the OHC changes from this diverse collection of observational systems. Overall, our model-based analysis suggests that nearly half of the industrial-era increases in global OHC have occurred in recent decades, with over a third of the accumulated heat occurring below 700 m and steadily rising.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Arctic Plant Aboveground Biomass Synthesis Dataset

Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to rapid climatic changes occurring in the Arctic. Nevertheless, measuring plant biomass in the Arctic is logistically challenging and resource intensive. Lack of accessible field data hinders efforts to understand the amount, composition, distribution, and changes in plant biomass in these northern ecosystems. Here, we present The Arctic plant aboveground biomass synthesis dataset, which includes field measurements of lichen, bryophyte, herb, shrub, and/or tree aboveground biomass (g m -2 ) on 2,327 sample plots from 636 field sites in seven countries. We created the synthesis dataset by assembling and harmonizing 32 individual datasets. Aboveground biomass was primarily quantified by harvesting sample plots during mid- to late-summer, though tree and often tall shrub biomass were quantified using surveys and allometric models. Each biomass measurement is associated with metadata including sample date, location, method, data source, and other information. This unique dataset can be leveraged to monitor, map, and model plant biomass across the rapidly warming Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial pattern of lake evaporation increases under global warming linked to regional hydroclimate change

Abstract Lakes are critical natural resources that are vulnerable to climate change. In a warmer climate, lake evaporation is projected to increase globally, but with substantial variation between regions. Here, based on ensemble projections of climate and lake models and an attribution method, we show that future lake evaporation increase is strongly modulated by regional hydroclimate change. Specifically, a drying hydroclimate will amplify evaporation increase by enlarging surface vapor pressure deficit and reducing cloud shortwave reflection. Future lake evaporation increase is amplified in tropical America, the Mediterranean and Southeast China with drier future hydroclimates, and dampened in high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau with wetter future hydroclimates. Such spatially coupled changes in lake evaporation and hydroclimate have important implications on regional lake water balance and volume change, which can aggravate water scarcity and flood risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Seasonal variation and light absorption property of carbonaceous aerosol in a typical glacier region of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Deposition and accumulation of light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosol on glacier surfaces can alter the energy balance of glaciers. In this study, 2 years (December 2014 to December 2016) of continuous observations of carbonaceous aerosols in the glacierized region of the Mt. Yulong and Ganhaizi (GHZ) basin are analyzed. The average elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) concentrations were 1.51±0.93 and 2.57±1.32μg m -3 , respectively. Although the annual mean OC/EC ratio was 2.45±1.96, monthly mean EC concentrations during the post-monsoon season were even higher than OC in the high altitudes (approximately 5000 m a.s.l.) of Mt. Yulong. Strong photochemical reactions and local tourism activities were likely the main factors inducing high OC/EC ratios in the Mt. Yulong region during the monsoon season. The mean mass absorption efficiency (MAE) of EC, measured for the first time in Mt. Yulong, at 632 nm with a thermal-optical carbon analyzer using the filter-based method, was 6.82±0.73 m 2 g -1 , comparable with the results from other studies. Strong seasonal and spatial variations of EC MAE were largely related to the OC abundance. Source attribution analysis using a global aerosol–climate model, equipped with a black carbon (BC) source tagging technique, suggests that East Asia emissions, including local sources, have the dominant contribution (over 50%) to annual mean near-surface BC in the Mt. Yulong area. There is also a strong seasonal variation in the regional source apportionment. South Asia has the largest contribution to near-surface BC during the pre-monsoon season, while East Asia dominates the monsoon season and post-monsoon season. Results in this study have great implications for accurately evaluating the influences of carbonaceous matter on glacial melting and water resource supply in glacierization areas.

Niu, Hewen↗
NASA NTRS1991

Operational satellites and the global monitoring of snow and ice

The altitudinal dependence of the global warming projected by global climate models is at least partially attributable to the albedo-temperature feedback involving snow and ice, which must be regarded as key variables in the monitoring for global change. Statistical analyses of data from IR and microwave sensors monitoring the areal coverage and extent of sea ice have led to mixed conclusions about recent trends of hemisphere sea ice coverage. Seasonal snow cover has been mapped for over 20 years by NOAA/NESDIS on the basis of imagery from a variety of satellite sensors. Multichannel passive microwave data show some promise for the routine monitoring of snow depth over unforested land areas.

Walsh, John E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Statistical and Prediction modeling of the Ka Band Using Experimental Results from ACTS Propagation Terminals at 20.185 and 27.505 GHZ

With the increase in demand for wireless communication services, most of the operating frequency bands have become very congested. The increase of wireless costumers is only fractional contribution to this phenomenon. The demand for more services such as video streams and internet explorer which require a lot of band width has been a more significant contributor to the congestion in a communication system. One way to increase the amount of information or data per unit of time transmitted with in a wireless communication system is to use a higher radio frequency. However in spite the advantage available in the using higher frequency bands such as, the Ka-band, higher frequencies also implies short wavelengths. And shorter wavelengths are more susceptible to rain attenuation. Until the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) was launched, the Ka- band frequency was virtually unused - the majority of communication satellites operated in lower frequency bands called the C- and Ku- bands. Ka-band is desirable because its higher frequency allows wide bandwidth applications, smaller spacecraft and ground terminal components, and stronger signal strength. Since the Ka-band is a high frequency band, the millimeter wavelengths of the signals are easily degraded by rain. This problem known as rain fade or rain attenuation The Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) propagation experiment has collected 5 years of Radio Frequency (RF) attenuation data from December 1993 to November 1997. The objective of my summer work is to help develop the statistics and prediction techniques that will help to better characterize the Ka Frequency band. The statistical analysis consists of seasonal and cumulative five-year attenuation statistics for the 20.2 and 27.5 GHz. The cumulative five-year results give the link outage that occurs for a given link margin. The experiment has seven ground station terminals that can be attributed to a unique rain zone climate. The locations are White Sands, NM, Tampa, Fly Clarksburg, MD, Norman, OK, Ft. Collins, COY Vancouver, BC, and Fairbanks, AK. The analysis will help us to develop and define specific parameters that will help system engineers develop the appropriated instrumentation and structure for a Ka-band wireless communication systems and networks.

Ogunwuyi, Oluwatosin O.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Development of the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Evolution from MERRA to MERRA2.

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA2) version of the GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System Model - 5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) is currently in use in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at a wide range of resolutions for a variety of applications. Details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the version in the original MERRA reanalysis are presented here. Results of a series of atmosphere-only sensitivity studies are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in physical parameterizations, and the impact of the newly implemented resolution-aware behavior on simulations at different resolutions is demonstrated. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used as part of the GMAO's MERRA2 reanalysis, the global mesoscale "nature run", the real-time numerical weather prediction system, and for atmosphere-only, coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled atmosphere-chemistry simulations. The seasonal mean climate of the MERRA2 version of the GEOS-5 AGCM represents a substantial improvement over the simulated climate of the MERRA version at all resolutions and for all applications. Fundamental improvements in simulated climate are associated with the increased re-evaporation of frozen precipitation and cloud condensate, resulting in a wetter atmosphere. Improvements in simulated climate are also shown to be attributable to changes in the background gravity wave drag, and to upgrades in the relationship between the ocean surface stress and the ocean roughness. The series of "resolution aware" parameters related to the moist physics were shown to result in improvements at higher resolutions, and result in AGCM simulations that exhibit seamless behavior across different resolutions and applications.

AGCM↗
NASA NTRS2024

Where Dust Comes from: Global Assessment of Dust Source Attributions with AeroCom Models

The source of dust in the global atmosphere is an important factor to better understand the role of dust aerosols in the climate system. However, it is a difficult task to attribute the airborne dust over the remote land and ocean regions to their origins since dust from various sources are mixed during long-range transport. Recently, a multi-model experiment, namely the AeroCom-III Dust Source Attribution (DUSA), has been conducted to estimate the relative contribution of dust in various locations from different sources with tagged simulations from seven participating global models. The BASE run and a series of runs with nine tagged regions were made to estimate the contribution of dust emitted in East- and West-Africa, Middle East, Central- and East-Asia, North America, the Southern Hemisphere, and the prominent dust hot spots of the Bodélé and Taklimakan Deserts. The models generally agree in large scale mean dust distributions, however models show large diversity in dust source attribution. The inter-model differences are significant with the global model dust diversity in 30%–50%, but the differences in regional and seasonal scales are even larger. The multi-model analysis estimates that North Africa contributes 60% of global atmospheric dust loading, followed by Middle East and Central Asia sources (24%). Southern hemispheric sources account for 10% of global dust loading, however it contributes more than 70% of dust over the Southern Hemisphere. The study provides quantitative estimates of the impact of dust emitted from different source regions on the globe and various receptor regions including remote land, ocean, and the polar regions synthesized from the seven models.

Dust source attribution, Aerosol, Model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observed Changes in Hydroclimate Attributed to Human Forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P–E ) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2015

Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO 2 from 2000 to 2010

The climatic impact of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases is usually quantified in terms of radiative forcing, calculated as the difference between estimates of the Earth's radiation field from pre-industrial and present-day concentrations of these gases. Radiative transfer models calculate that the increase in CO 2 since 1750 corresponds to a global annual-mean radiative forcing at the tropopause of 1.82 ± 0.19 W m -2 . However, despite widespread scientific discussion and modelling of the climate impacts of well-mixed greenhouse gases, there is little direct observational evidence of the radiative impact of increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Here in this paper, we present observationally based evidence of clear-sky CO 2 surface radiative forcing that is directly attributable to the increase, between 2000 and 2010, of 22 parts per million atmospheric CO 2 . The time series of this forcing at the two locations-the Southern Great Plains and the North Slope of Alaska-are derived from Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer spectra together with ancillary measurements and thoroughly corroborated radiative transfer calculations. The time series both show statistically significant trends of 0.2 W m -2 per decade (with respective uncertainties of ± 0.06 W m -2 per decade and ± 0.07 W m -2 per decade) and have seasonal ranges of 0.1-0.2 W m -2 . This is approximately ten per cent of the trend in downwelling longwave radiation. These results confirm theoretical predictions of the atmospheric greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic emissions, and provide empirical evidence of how rising CO 2 levels, mediated by temporal variations due to photosynthesis and respiration, are affecting the surface energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning

Climate modelling and analysis are facing new demands to enhance projections and climate information. Here, in this study, we argue that now is the time to push the frontiers of machine learning beyond state-of-the-art approaches, not only by developing machine-learning-based Earth system models with greater fidelity, but also by providing new capabilities through emulators for extreme event projections with large ensembles, enhanced detection and attribution methods for extreme events, and advanced climate model analysis and benchmarking. Utilizing this potential requires key machine learning challenges to be addressed, in particular generalization, uncertainty quantification, explainable artificial intelligence and causality. This interdisciplinary effort requires bringing together machine learning and climate scientists, while also leveraging the private sector, to accelerate progress towards actionable climate science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Thus, in a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗