Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Capacity assessment”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Offshore Wind Leasing Areas in California [Slides]

This presentation summarizes an analysis of options for dividing Morro Bay and Humboldt Wind Energy Areas (WEAs) into offshore wind lease areas. The delineation process considered input from wind energy developers, physical characteristics of the sites, and potential effects of turbine layout and mooring technology selection on the energy generation capacity of each location. Two delineation options were assessed for the Humboldt WEA and four options for the Morro Bay WEA. The lease areas within each WEA were designed to have equal value and support approximately 1 gigawatt of generation capacity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatially-Explicit Prediction of Capacity Density Advances Geographic Characterization of Wind Power Technical Potential

Mounting interest in ambitious clean energy goals is exposing critical gaps in our understanding of onshore wind power potential. Conventional approaches to evaluating wind power technical potential at the national scale rely on coarse geographic representations of land area requirements for wind power. These methods overlook sizable spatial variation in real-world capacity densities (i.e., nameplate power capacity per unit area) and assume that potential installation densities are uniform across space. Here, we propose a data-driven approach to overcome persistent challenges in characterizing localized deployment potentials over broad extents. We use machine learning to develop predictive relationships between observed capacity densities and geospatial variables. The model is validated against a comprehensive data set of United States (U.S.) wind facilities and subjected to interrogation techniques to reveal that key explanatory features behind geographic variation of capacity density are related to wind resource as well as urban accessibility and forest cover. We demonstrate application of the model by producing a high-resolution (2 km × 2 km) national map of capacity density for use in technical potential assessments for the United States. Our findings illustrate that this methodology offers meaningful improvements in the characterization of spatial aspects of technical potential, which are increasingly critical to draw reliable and actionable planning and research insights from renewable energy scenarios.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2023

Female Astronauts Exhibit Greater Reductions in Aerobic Peak Power Following Long-Duration Space Flight than Males

BACKGROUND: Long-duration exposure to microgravity during space flight causes cardiovascular deconditioning, ultimately reducing aerobic fitness. While sex-based differences play an integral role in health on Earth, there is a paucity of data to inform space flight-induced health and performance implications for female astronauts, which may be critical to ensure health, safety, and mission success. Therefore, this retrospective investigation characterized aerobic capacity in female and male astronauts to inform whether sex differences exist from pre to postflight. METHODS: A NASA historical database (n=47 crew; 11 female, 36 male) of International Space Station (ISS) crewmembers was used to characterize sex differences in aerobic capacity changes from pre to postflight to update the NASA Aerobic and Muscle Risk Evidence Report. Aerobic capacity (VO2pk; ml/kg/min) and peak power (W) were assessed using a graded cycling exercise protocol that included a 3-min warmup at 50 W, with stepwise increases in resistance (25 W/min) until volitional fatigue. Group differences in baseline demographics and the percent change in aerobic capacity from preflight (~90 days before launch) to postflight (~3 days after return) were compared using independent t-tests. Significance was set at P<0.05 (Mean ±SD). RESULTS: At preflight, females were younger (44.5±6.6 vs 48.6±5.6 yrs; p=0.041), weighed less (68.8±10.0 vs 81.0±8.8 kg; p< 0.001), with lower VO2pk (32.8±5.9 vs 37.8±6.0 ml/kg/min; p=0.021) and aerobic peak power (229±42 vs 299±52 W; p< 0.001) than males, but had similar heart rate at VO2pk (176.0±7.3 vs 173.0±10.8 beats/min; p=0.406). ISS flight durations (F: 205.0±58.3 vs M: 176.0±40.5 days; p=0.061) and reductions in VO2pk from pre to postflight were comparable between sexes (F: -11.8±10.7%; M: -8.8%±7.9%; p=0.32). However, females had a greater reduction in aerobic peak power than males (−13.3%±8.9% vs −4.9%±8.8%; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that some indicators of fitness (i.e., aerobic peak power) are more impacted in female astronauts compared to males after long-duration space flight missions. Future investigations with larger sample sizes are necessary to identify the physiological basis of sex-based differences and develop effective countermeasure approaches for both sexes.

Nicole C Strock↗
DOE OSTI2022

Developing a Decision Support System for Regional Agricultural Nonpoint Salinity Pollution Management: Application to the San Joaquin River, California

Environmental problems and production losses associated with irrigated agriculture, such as salinity, degradation of receiving waters, such as rivers, and deep percolation of saline water to aquifers, highlight water-quality concerns that require a paradigm shift in resource-management policy. New tools are needed to assist environmental managers in developing sustainable solutions to these problems, given the nonpoint source nature of salt loads to surface water and groundwater from irrigated agriculture. Equity issues arise in distributing responsibility and costs to the generators of this source of pollution. This paper describes an alternative approach to salt regulation and control using the concept of “Real-Time Water Quality management”. The approach relies on a continually updateable WARMF (Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework) forecasting model to provide daily estimates of salt load assimilative capacity in the San Joaquin River and assessments of compliance with salinity concentration objectives at key monitoring sites on the river. The results of the study showed that the policy combination of well-crafted river salinity objectives by the regulator and the application of an easy-to use and maintain decision support tool by stakeholders have succeeded in minimizing water quality (salinity) exceedances over a 20-year study period.

real-time management economics↗
NASA NTRS1976

Energy Conservation Alternatives Study (ECAS): Conceptual Design and Implementation Assessment of a Utility Steam Plant with Conventional Furnace and Wet Lime Stack Gas Scrubbers

A study was performed to estimate the technical/economic characteristics of a steam power plant (3500 pounds per square inch gauge, 1000 degrees Fahrenheit / 1000 degrees Fahrenheit) with a coal-burning radiant furnace and a wet lime stack gas scrubber to control sulfur emissions. Particulate emissions were controlled by an electrostatic precipitator operating at 300 degrees Fahrenheit. The stack gas from the scrubber was reheated from 125 degrees Fahrenheit to 250 degrees Fahrenheit as a base case, and from 125 degrees Fahrenheit to 175 degrees Fahrenheit as an alternate case. The study was performed on a basis consistent with the General Electric ECAS Phase II evaluation of advanced energy conversion systems for electric utility baseload applications using coal or coal-derived fuels. A conceptual design of the power plant was developed, including the on-site calcination of limestone to lime and the provision of sludge ponds to store the products of flue gas scrubbing. From this design, estimates were derived for power plant efficiency, capital cost, environmental intrusion characteristics, natural resource requirements, and cost of electricity at an assumed capacity factor of 65 percent. An implementation assessment was performed where factors affecting applicability of the conceptual design power plant in electric utility generation systems were appraised. At 250 degrees Fahrenheit and 175 degrees Fahrenheit stack gas temperatures respectively, the plants showed a cost of electricity of 39.8 and 37.0 mills per kilowatt-hours and overall plant efficiencies of 32 percent and 34 percent.

Brown, Dale H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

OR-AGENT framework – Architecting electrified heavy-duty drayage applications

The widespread adoption of zero-emission vehicles in heavy-duty (HD) commercial freight transportation faces considerable technoeconomic challenges. For heavy-duty trucks, ensuring high uptime, cost parity with diesel, and safety standards is especially critical as these vehicles operate over long distances with heavy loads, where any downtime or off-nominal behaviors significantly impacts logistics, productivity, and the total cost of ownership. Unlike traditional diesel refueling, BEV charging infrastructure must be co-optimized with vehicle deployment, operational demands, and grid capacity to ensure cost-effective and reliable freight operations. However, the lack of a standardized ownership and service model has led to a fragmented approach—where commercial vehicle operators may invest in, own, and maintain both vehicle/batteries and charging/energy infrastructure. This disconnect may exclude energy service providers from the equation, forcing fleet operators to explore ‘behind-the-fence’ energy solutions that increase capital investment, operational downtime, overhead costs, and, in some cases, net carbon emissions. To address these issues, this study introduces OR-AGENT (Optimal Regional Architecture Generation for Efficient National Transport), a comprehensive modeling framework that integrates powertrain architectures, charging infrastructures, and energy backbone systems into a cohesive strategy. In this paper, OR-AGENT is applied to develop an interconnected systems architecture for energy efficiency and resiliency enhancement of heavy-duty drayage vehicles at the Port of Savannah, GA. This framework showcases an interconnected systems approach to electrifying heavy-duty drayage vehicles at the Port of Savannah, GA. The study assessed BEVs with 400–1200 kWh battery capacities, accounting for seasonal variations in weather and freight routing. A diverse charging mix (150 kW–1250 kW) was evaluated alongside grid capacity constraints, cost, and carbon intensity analysis, leading to the development of a strategic microgrid/Distributed Energy Resources (DER) deployment architecture to ensure a reliable and sustainable transition. However, the findings also highlight the need for alternative zero-emission solutions for remaining trips, such as larger batteries, electrified roadways, hydrogen powertrains, or net-zero emission fuels. In conclusion, the findings are incorporated into a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model to identify optimal architectures for an interconnected electrified ecosystem.

Commercial vehicles↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-scale impacts of climate change on hydropower for long-term water-energy planning in the contiguous United States

Climate change impacts on watersheds can potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues where water serves multiple purposes including hydropower. The long-term management of water and energy resources is still mostly approached in a siloed manner at different basins or watersheds, failing to consider the potential impacts that may concurrently affect many regions at once. There is a need for a large-scale hydropower modeling framework that can examine climate impacts across adjoining river basins and balancing authorities (BAs) and provide a periodic assessment at regional to national scales. Expanding from our prior assessment only for the United States (US) federal hydropower plants, we enhance and extend two regional hydropower models to cover over 85% of the total hydropower nameplate capacity and present the first contiguous US-wide assessment of future hydropower production under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6’s high-end Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 emission scenario using an uncertainty-aware multi-model ensemble approach. We present regional hydropower projections, using both BA regions and US Hydrologic Subregions (HUC4s), to consistently inform the energy and water communities for two future periods—the near-term (2020–2039) and the mid-term (2040–2059) relative to a historical baseline period (1980–2019). We find that the median projected changes in annual hydropower generation are typically positive—approximately 5% in the near-term, and 10% in the mid-term. However, since the risk of regional droughts is also projected to increase, future planning cannot overly rely on the ensemble median, as the potential of severe hydropower reductions could be overlooked. The assessment offers an ensemble of future hydropower generation projections, providing regional utilities and power system operators with consistent data to develop drought scenarios, design long duration storage and evaluate energy infrastructure reliability under intensified inter-annual and seasonal variability.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization factors and other air quality impact metrics: Case study for PM 2.5 -emitting area sources from biofuel feedstock supply

In this paper, we develop a framework and metrics for estimating the impact of emission sources on regulatory compliance and human health for applications in air quality planning and life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). Our framework is based on a pollutant's characterization factor (CF) and three new metrics: Available Regulatory Capacity for Incremental Emissions (ARCIE), Source CF Ratio, and Activity Health Impact (AHI) Ratio. ARCIE can be used to assess whether a receptor location has capacity to accommodate additional source emissions while complying with regulatory limits. We present CF as a midpoint indicator of health impacts per unit mass of emitted pollutant. Source CF Ratio enables comparison of potential new-source locations based on human health impacts. The AHI Ratio estimates the health impacts of a pollutant in relation to the utilization of the source for each unit of product or service. These metrics can be applied to any pollutant, energy source sector (e.g., agriculture, electricity), source type (point, line, area), and spatial modeling domain (nation, state, city, region). We demonstrate these metrics through a case study of fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) emissions from U.S. corn stover harvesting and local processing at various scales, representing steps in the biofuel production process. We model PM 2.5 formation in the atmosphere using a novel reduced-complexity chemical transport model called the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP). Through this case study, we present the first area-source PM 2.5 CFs that address the recommendations of several LCIA studies to establish spatially explicit CFs specific to an energy source sector or type. Overall, the framework developed in this work provides multiple new ways to consider the potential impacts of air emissions through spatially differentiated metrics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing electrification readiness in U.S. single-family homes based on a nationwide survey of electrical panel capacities

Electrification of residential buildings is a key strategy for increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Central to this transition is understanding the capacity of existing electrical infrastructure—specifically electrical panels—to safely and effectively manage increased electricity demands from electrification technologies. However, comprehensive nationwide data on electrical panel capacities in U.S. single-family homes is currently lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a nationwide survey of single-family homes, collecting detailed data on electrical panel capacities, breaker slot availability, major electric and gas appliances, electrical panel models, and home characteristics such as construction year and floor area. Photographic documentation was used to verify electrical panel data and appliance information. Results show that approximately 60% of surveyed homes have electrical panels rated at ≥200 amperes (A), indicating that a significant portion of the existing housing stock can accommodate additional electric loads. However, 31% of homes possess panels rated at ≤100 A, potentially restricting their ability to adopt new electric appliances without significant upgrades. Panel capacities positively correlate with both home size and construction year, with newer and larger homes generally better suited for electrification. Homes with higher-capacity panels tend to have fewer gas appliances, reflecting a gradual shift toward electric technologies. Conversely, homes with lower-capacity panels frequently rely on multiple gas appliances, highlighting substantial electrification challenges. Additionally, approximately 3% of surveyed homes had potentially hazardous electrical panel models, emphasizing important safety considerations in the residential electrification process. Our findings underscore the need for targeted policies, financial incentives, and infrastructure investments designed specifically to address infrastructural and safety barriers, particularly in older and smaller homes, to support equitable and efficient electrification across the U.S. residential sector.

Gul, Sadia↗
DOE OSTI2021

A heuristic tool to assess regional impacts of renewable energy infrastructure on conservation areas

Wind and hydropower are important renewable components of national energy portfolios, but their infrastructure negatively affects biodiversity. Regional development requires identification of scenarios that minimize the cumulative impacts of multiple facilities. We introduce the cumulative impact plot (CIP) to quantify cumulative impacts of renewable energy development within a region. Summed impacts of facilities are plotted as a function of the number of facilities, with facilities ranked by increasing (the best-case scenario) or decreasing (worst-case scenario) individual impact. These curves represent lower and upper bounds to which alternative development scenarios (e.g., facilities ranked by generating capacity) can be compared. We used CIPs to assess overlap of potential wind and hydropower facilities with two types of conservation area in the United States: (1) federally protected lands and (2) critical habitats of federally threatened and endangered species. Here, we evaluated two alternative scenarios: facilities ranked by (A) decreasing generating capacity and (B) increasing distance from urban centers. Differences between the best-case and worst-case scenarios were large, thus revealing opportunities to develop facilities with limited impact on conservation areas. Alternative scenarios maximizing energy density generally resulted in conservation area overlap intermediate to best-case and worst-case scenarios. CIPs can also identify the proportion of wind versus hydropower favored under alternative scenarios. Build-out scenarios aimed at minimizing conservation area overlap favor hydropower, whereas alternative scenarios favor wind power. We conclude that CIPs can (1) complement—but should not replace—project-level environmental impact assessment, (2) integrate strategic, cumulative, and scenario-based assessments, and (3) harness rapidly growing geospatial data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning

Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Strength Assessment for High Levels of Inverter-based Resources in the Puerto Rico Power

A system-wide assessment of the Puerto Rico power system grid strength is studied when considering high levels of inverter-based resource penetration. This study is carried out in PSSE and assesses the impact of inverter-based resource (IBR) contributions in response to three-phase ground faults. A hypothetical 100% inverter-based generation scenario is created to assess the extreme impact on short circuit levels and a realistic scenario is considered to assess the impact to short circuit ratios. The overall conclusion is that short circuit capacity and current will drastically decrease in a high IBR scenario, an effect that is quantified in this paper. The short circuit ratio metric is typically used to assess the impact of IBR but generally overestimates grid strength due to not accounting for the impact from multiple IBRs. Other methods such as equivalent circuit based short circuit ratio and weighted short circuit ratio offer a more comprehensive consideration for multiple IBRs and can better account for their mutual interactions. The work presented in this paper is part of the PR100 study.

inverter based resources, PR100, grid strength↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coulombic Efficiency and Capacity Retention are Not Universal Descriptors of Cell Aging

Capacity and coulombic efficiency are often used to assess the performance of Li-ion batteries, under the assumption that these quantities can provide direct insights about the rate of electron consumption due to growth of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). Here, we show that electrode properties can actually change the amount of information about aging that can be directly retrieved from capacity measurements. During cycling of full-cells, only portions of the voltage profiles of the positive and negative electrodes are accessible, leaving a reservoir of cyclable Li + stored at both electrodes. The size and availability of this reservoir depends on the shape of the voltage profiles and accessing this extra Li + can offset some of the capacity that is consumed by the SEI. Consequently, capacity and efficiency measurements can, at times, severely underestimate the rate of side reactions experienced by the cell. We show, for example, that a same rate of SEI growth would cause faster capacity fade in LiFePO 4 than in NMC cells, and that the perceived effects of aging depend on testing variables such as depth of discharge. Simply measuring capacity may be insufficient to gauge the true extent of aging endured by Li-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adoption of biofuels for marine shipping decarbonization: A long‐term price and scalability assessment

Abstract This study assessed the long‐term annual biofuel production capacity potential and price in the United States and shed light on the prospect of biofuel adoption for marine propulsion. A linear programming model was developed to assist the projections and provide insightful analyses. The projected long‐term (2040) maximum annual capacity of biofuels in the United States is 245 million metric tons (Mt) or 65 billion gallons of heavy fuel oil gallon equivalent (HFOGE) when based on the median feedstock availability. Between 2022 (near‐term) and 2040, the potential biofuel capacity increases by over 40%, attributed to increased feedstock availability. At a price range up to $500/t, biodiesel is the main product, and the annual capacity (12 Mt) is limited to feedstock availability constraints. Biodiesel and corn ethanol are the main biofuels at a price range up to $750/t. At a higher price point (above $750/t), the biofuel types and annual capacities increase substantially (218 Mt per year). Biofuels above this price include gasoline‐, jet‐, and diesel‐range blendstocks, as well as bio‐methanol, bio‐propane, and biogas. This study concludes that the US domestic feedstock availability coupled with advanced conversion technologies can produce substantial amounts of biofuels to achieve a critical mass and be impactful as alternative marine fuels. There is also a need to improve the biofuel price for marine shipping adoption. Policies and economic incentives that provide temporary financial support would help facilitate maritime biofuel adoption. © 2022 Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Biomass Production and Nutrient Removal by Perennial Energy Grasses Produced on a Wet Marginal Land

Growing dedicated bioenergy crops on marginal land can provide beneficial outcomes including biomass production and energy, resource management, and ecosystem services. We investigated the effects of harvest timing (peak standing crop [PEAK] or after killing frost [KF]) and nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates (0, 56, and 112 kg N ha -1 ) on yield, nutrient concentrations, and nutrient removal rates of perennial grasses on a wet marginal land. We evaluated three monocultures, including switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L., SW), Miscanthus x giganteus (MG), prairie cordgrass (Spartina pectinata Link, PCG), and a polyculture mixture of big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii Vitman), Indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans (L.) Nash), and sideoats grama (Bouteloua curtipendula Torr., MIX). Increasing the application of N did correlate with increased biomass, concentration, and subsequent removal of nutrients across almost all treatment combinations. In all grass treatments except MG, PEAK harvesting increased yield and nutrient removal. At PEAK harvest, switchgrass is ideal for optimizing both biomass production and nutrient removal. While our results also suggest short-term plasticity for farmers when selecting harvest timing for optimal nutrient removal, KF harvest is recommended to ensure long-term stand longevity and adequate nutrient removal. If the KF harvest is adopted, MG would be the ideal option for optimizing biomass yield potential. Additionally, we found that the yield of polyculture did not vary much with harvest timing, suggesting better yield stability. Future studies should give consideration for long-term evaluation of polyculture mixtures to assess their biomass yields and nutrient removal capacities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations of NaCl, UCl 3 molten salts

Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations are used to calculate select thermophysical and thermodynamic properties of NaCl, UCl and NaCl-UCl 3 molten salts. Following established approaches, the AIMD simulations include a model for Van der Waals interactions. The Langreth & Lundqvist (vDW-DF2), DFT-D3, and density-dependent energy correction (DFT-dDsC) dispersion models are first tested for molten NaCl in order to assess their accuracy for density and heat capacity predictions across a range of temperatures. Based on the NaCl results, the vdW-DF2 and DFT-dDsC methods are extended to the UCl 3 system and compared to available experimental data. Next, mixtures of NaCl-UCl 3 are investigated and analyzed with respect to the deviation from ideal solution behavior. For the DFT-dDsC simulations, density deviates by up to 2% from an ideal mixture, with the maximum occurring close to the eutectic composition. The mixing energy also deviates from an ideal solution and exhibits a minimum of about -0.074 to eV per formula unit, again close to the eutectic composition. Finally, the compressibility and species diffusivity of the pure and mixed salt systems are calculated. The diffusivities are slightly reduced in the mixed compared to the pure systems and the compressibilities loosely follow a linear correlation as a function of the UCl 3 composition. The trends observed for mixing properties are rationalized by correlating them to the coordination chemistry, which emphasizes the importance of maintaining the extended network formed by U and Cl ions as the NaCl concentration increases. The concentration at which breakdown of the extended network occurs, roughly coincides with the minimum of both the mixing energy and the deviation from ideal solution behavior for density.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗