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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2011

RECOVERY ACT: DYNAMIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION MANAGEMENT OF ROUTING TELECOM AND DATA CENTERS THROUGH REAL-TIME OPTIMAL CONTROL (RTOC): Final Scientific/Technical Report

This final scientific report documents the Industrial Technology Program (ITP) Stage 2 Concept Development effort on Data Center Energy Reduction and Management Through Real-Time Optimal Control (RTOC). Society is becoming increasingly dependent on information technology systems, driving exponential growth in demand for data center processing and an insatiable appetite for energy. David Raths noted, 'A 50,000-square-foot data center uses approximately 4 megawatts of power, or the equivalent of 57 barrels of oil a day1.' The problem has become so severe that in some cases, users are giving up raw performance for a better balance between performance and energy efficiency. Historically, power systems for data centers were crudely sized to meet maximum demand. Since many servers operate at 60%-90% of maximum power while only utilizing an average of 5% to 15% of their capability, there are huge inefficiencies in the consumption and delivery of power in these data centers. The goal of the 'Recovery Act: Decreasing Data Center Energy Use through Network and Infrastructure Control' is to develop a state of the art approach for autonomously and intelligently reducing and managing data center power through real-time optimal control. Advances in microelectronics and software are enabling the opportunity to realize significant data center power savings through the implementation of autonomous power management control algorithms. The first step to realizing these savings was addressed in this study through the successful creation of a flexible and scalable mathematical model (equation) for data center behavior and the formulation of an acceptable low technical risk market introduction strategy leveraging commercial hardware and software familiar to the data center market. Follow-on Stage 3 Concept Development efforts include predictive modeling and simulation of algorithm performance, prototype demonstrations with representative data center equipment to verify requisite performance and continued commercial partnering agreement formation to ensure uninterrupted development, and deployment of the real-time optimal control algorithm. As a software implementable technique for reducing power consumption, the RTOC has two very desirable traits supporting rapid prototyping and ultimately widespread dissemination. First, very little capital is required for implementation. No major infrastructure modifications are required and there is no need to purchase expensive capital equipment. Second, the RTOC can be rolled out incrementally. Therefore, the effectiveness can be proven without a large scale initial roll out. Through the use of the Impact Projections Model provided by the DOE, monetary savings in excess of $100M in 2020 and billions by 2040 are predicted. In terms of energy savings, the model predicts a primary energy displacement of 260 trillion BTUs (33 trillion kWh), or a 50% reduction in server power consumption. The model also predicts a corresponding reduction of pollutants such as SO2 and NOx in excess of 100,000 metric tonnes assuming the RTOC is fully deployed. While additional development and prototyping is required to validate these predictions, the relative low cost and ease of implementation compared to large capital projects makes it an ideal candidate for further investigation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2013

Continuing Developments in PV Risk Management: Strategies, Solutions, and Implications

As the PV industry matures, successful risk management practices will become more imperative to ensure investor confidence, control costs, and facilitate further growth. This report discusses several key aspects of risk management during the commercial- and utility-scale project life cycle, from identification of risks, to the process of mitigating and allocating those risks among project parties, to transferring those risks through insurance. The report also explores novel techniques in PV risk management, options to offload risks onto the capital markets, and innovative insurance policies (namely warranty policies) that address risks unique to the PV sector. One of the major justifications for robust risk management in the PV industry is the cost-reduction opportunities it affords. If the PV industry can demonstrate the capability to successfully manage its risks, thereby inspiring confidence in financiers, it may be able to obtain a lower cost of capital in future transactions. A lower cost of capital translates to a lower cost of energy, which will in turn enhance PV's competitiveness at a time when it will have to rely less on subsidies to support its market penetration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Analysis of the Production Cost for Various Grades of Biomass Thermal Treatment

Process flow sheets were developed for the thermal treatment of southern pine wood chips at four temperatures (150, 180, 230, and 270 degrees C) and two different scales (20 and 100 ton/hour). The larger capacity processes had as their primary heat source hot gas assumed to be available in quantity from an adjacent biorefinery. Mass and energy balances for these flow sheets were developed using Aspen Plus process simulation software. The hot gas demands in the larger processes, up to 1.9 million lb/hour, were of questionable feasibility because of the volume to be moved. This heat was of low utility because the torrefaction process, especially at higher temperatures, is a net heat producer if the organic byproduct gases are burned. A thermal treatment flow sheet using wood chips dried in the biorefinery to 10% moisture content (rather than 30% for green chips) with transfer of high temperature steam from the thermal treatment depot to the biorefinery was also examined. The equipment size information from all of these cases was used in several different equipment cost estimating methods to estimate the major equipment costs for each process. From these, factored estimates of other plant costs were determined, leading to estimates (± 30% accuracy) of total plant capital cost. The 20 ton/hour processes were close to 25 million dollars except for the 230 degrees C case using dried wood chips which was only 15 million dollars because of its small furnace. The larger processes ranged from 64-120 million dollars. From these capital costs and projections of several categories of operating costs, the processing cost of thermally treated pine chips was found to be $28-33 per ton depending on the degree of treatment and without any credits for steam generation. If the excess energy output of the two 20 ton/hr depot cases at 270 degrees C can be sold for $10 per million BTU, the net processing cost dropped to $13/ton product starting with green wood chips or only $3 per ton if using dried chips from the biorefinery. Including a 12% return on invested capital raised all of the operating cost results by about $20/ton.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seismic Isolation of Major Advanced Reactor Systems for Economic Improvement and Safety Assurance

Advanced reactor concepts currently under development in the United States [e.g., the High-Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) of X-Energy and the Molten Chloride Fast Reactor (MCFR) of TerraPower] are striving to improve the economics of nuclear power primarily by using passively and ‘walk-away’ safe technologies in the reactor. The recently published report, ‘Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World’ by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Institute (MIT EI) has shown that a significant contributor to the capital cost of NPPs is the ‘civil works’ i.e., the construction of the balance of plant (BoP: all SSCs except those involved in power generation, e.g., reactor vessel) such as the buildings, containment dome, foundation, etc., which amount to almost half of the overnight capital cost. The report suggests that using advanced construction technologies such as seismic isolation and high-performance concrete to significantly reduce the capital costs of advanced reactors. This report demonstrates the application of two cost-cutting solutions on advanced reactor designs that are currently under development. These solutions include, (1) seismic base isolation, and (2) risk- and cost-based seismic design optimization including seismic isolation of individual components.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scenarios of Nuclear Energy Use in the United States for the 21st Century

The uncertainty in the cost of nuclear energy coinciding with efforts to address climate change are contributing to the uncertainty in the future role of nuclear energy in the US electricity system and the response to addressing global climate change. Sensitivity cases of alternative nuclear capital costs, ranging from 2600 to 6600 $\$ $/kW, were investigated with scenarios of alternative carbon mitigation policies, including 50, 100, and 150 $\$ $/tCO 2 carbon tax cases and economy-wide net-zero goals by 2050, 2060, and 2070 for the US. The resulting US nuclear power capacity ranged from 130 to 240 GW in 2050 and 90 to 450 GW in 2100 from nuclear cost sensitivity cases without carbon mitigation policies. Imposing policies to achieve the decarbonization of electricity and net-zero emission goals increased the range of nuclear power capacity from 190 to 460 GW in 2050 and 210 to 850 GW by 2100, where the range is from the low and high nuclear cost cases. Carbon penalties beyond 100 $\$ $/tCO 2 had a diminishing role on the expansion of nuclear power as the electricity sector becomes fully decarbonized. The 50 $\$ $/tCO 2 tax had the nuclear capital cost equivalency of 1000 $\$ $/kW reduction, while the 100 $\$ $/tCO 2 tax had the equivalency of 2000 $\$ $/kW reduction. Net-zero goals increased the contribution of nuclear power due to the increase in total electricity demand, but the delay in the timing of net-zero did not significantly affect the role of nuclear in the long-term. All net-zero goals were similar in their energy system impact with resulting carbon tax levels reaching 300 $\$ $/tCO 2 . Electricity is fully decarbonized in the net-zero scenarios and carbon pricing beyond 100 to 150 $\$ $/tCO 2 had little influence on the additional deployment of nuclear power. Regardless of the carbon policy, however, nuclear capital cost reductions had a clear and pronounced impact on the expanded deployment of nuclear power under all scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation of Nuclear Structures in Terms of Reduced Risk and Cost

Seismic isolation is a mature technology that has been implemented in many civil structures, including buildings, bridges, liquid natural gas tanks, and off shore oil platforms, both in the United States and other countries, to mitigate the damaging effects of earthquakes. Seismic isolation has also been used in nuclear structures in France and South Africa, but not yet in the United States: neither in the Department of Energy facilities nor in commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is primarily due to a lack of guidelines, codes and standards for the analysis, design and construction specific to seismically isolated nuclear structures. However, seismic isolation of nuclear structures has seen increased research interest in the recent years and the recently published national consensus standard, America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4-16 'Seismic analysis of safety related nuclear structures', now incorporates language and commentary (Chapter 12) for seismically isolating surface or near-surface-mounted nuclear facilities, including NPPs. Seismic isolation substantially reduces horizontal seismic loads (demands) on structures, systems, and components. Reduction in demand results in four potential benefits: (1) economic: reduction in capital cost, (2) increased safety: reduction in the mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance, (3) insurance: protection against increases in the known seismic hazard after construction by minimizing the effort to re-qualify and re-certify structures, systems and components, and (4) recertification: the opportunity to certify an existing NPP design for a region of higher seismic hazard. Item (2) above, an increase in safety (reduction of seismic risk), was explored in Huang et al., wherein it was demonstrated that the implementation of seismic isolation reduced seismic risk in nuclear power plant structures. Studies that assess item (1) have not been performed although the use of isolation may lead to large reductions in the capital cost of safety-related nuclear facilities. Funding provided by Nuclear Safety Research and Development in the Department of Energy (DOE) allowed the authors to develop a framework for assessing the economic benefits and reductions in seismic risk afforded by the use of seismic (base) isolation. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimation of overnight capital costs (OCC's) of a sample generic DOE nuclear facility (GDNF). The project is documented in detail in Bolisetti et al. and Yu et al., and key results are presented here. The GDNF considered in this study is based on a facility constructed at the Idaho National Laboratory. The GDNF is a two-story reinforced concrete building with an embedded basemat and is founded on soft rock at the boundary of Site Class B and Site Class C (B/C boundary) as characterized by ASCE/SEI Standard 7. The GDNF is assumed to handle radiological materials, and its structure, systems and components (SSC's) are designed to effectively confine these materials in the event of an internal failure. The GDNF is populated with components that are generic to safety-related nuclear structures. A single system, which is intended to confine a loss of materials-at-risk (MAR) to the interior of the structure, is chosen for this study. Accordingly, a hypothetical event tree and fault tree are assumed for risk assessment. The isolation system for the GDNF is designed per Chapter 12 of ASCE/SEI 4-16 but is not optimized. The isolation system consists of 38 lead rubber bearings installed in one horizontal plane below the basemat. Details of the GDNF, including the SSC's, event tree and fault tree, and isolation system, are presented in the project report and Yu et al.. This study includes seismic risk assessment and cost estimation for four cases: (1) the GDNF is located at a site of low to moderate seismic hazard and is constructed on a conventional (non-isolated) foundation; (2) the GDNF is located at the same site as case 1, but is seismically isolated; (3) the GDNF is located at a site of high seismic hazard and is constructed on a conventional foundation; and (4) the GDNF is located at the same site of high seismic hazard as case 3, but is seismically isolated. In this study, the DOE site at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is chosen as the low to moderate seismic hazard site for cases 1 and 2, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is chosen as the high seismic hazard site for cases 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Conceptual range estimation for total cost of ownership of modular process‐intensified chemical plants

Abstract Chemical companies have used modularization to reduce capital costs and project timelines, putting capital to work faster and lowering the risk of entering new markets. Nevertheless, the impacts of using modularization along with advanced technologies, such as process intensification, have not yet been fully realized, often due to the uncertain business risks associated with their implementation. Therefore, new methods are needed for quantifying the impact of modular chemical process intensification (MCPI) on the capital and operating costs of chemical plants to help build a business case for this novel approach. This article presents a new conceptual range estimation technique for total cost of ownership that addresses the deficiencies of existing methods for quantifying MCPI impacts. The incorporation of percentage range estimates was employed to allow for adaptability across various cost and size scales. This work also begins to elucidate how chemical engineering and construction firms can benefit from MCPI and identifies barriers that inhibit MCPI applications in the chemical industry.

Alhamouri, Khaled I.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Paths to future growth in photovoltaics manufacturing

The past decade has seen rapid growth in the photovoltaics industry, followed in the past few years by a period of much slower growth. A simple model that is consistent with this historical record can be used to predict the future evolution of the industry. Two key parameters are identified that determine the outcome. One is the annual global investment in manufacturing capacity normalized to the manufacturing capacity for the previous year (capacity-normalized capital investment rate, CapIR, units dollar/W). The other is how much capital investment is required for each watt of annual manufacturing capacity, normalized to the service life of the assets (capacity-normalized capital demand rate, CapDR, units dollar/W). If these two parameters remain unchanged from the values they have held for the past few years, global manufacturing capacity will peak in the next few years and then decline. However, it only takes a modest improvement in CapIR to ensure future growth in photovoltaics. Here, several approaches are presented that can enable the required improvement in CapIR. If, in addition, there is an accompanying improvement in CapDR, the rate of growth can be substantially accelerated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

Simulation and Estimation of Extreme Quantiles and Extreme Probabilities

Let X be a random vector with distribution {mu} on Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} and {Phi} be a mapping from Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} to Double-Struck-Capital-R . That mapping acts as a black box, e.g., the result from some computer experiments for which no analytical expression is available. This paper presents an efficient algorithm to estimate a tail probability given a quantile or a quantile given a tail probability. The algorithm improves upon existing multilevel splitting methods and can be analyzed using Poisson process tools that lead to exact description of the distribution of the estimated probabilities and quantiles. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in a problem related to digital watermarking.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Economic viability of multiple algal biorefining pathways and the impact of public policies

This study presents an extensive systems-level multi-pathway sustainability assessment of algae biofuel production that demonstrates the necessity of high-value co-products, examines the impact of public policy scenarios, and identifies improvements and pathway directions required for economic viability. Engineering process models for several fuel and co-product pathways were leveraged to perform high fidelity techno-economic analysis. These pathways included: baseline hydrothermal liquefaction; protein extraction followed by hydro-thermal liquefaction; fractionation into high-value chemicals with fermentation followed by hydrothermal liquefaction for fuels; and a small-scale first-of-a-kind plant coupled with a wastewater treatment facility. From these models, it was shown that hydrothermal liquefaction as a fuel-only pathway is not economically viable. Likewise, the benefits of coupling with wastewater water treatment are insignificant compared to the impact ofreduced facility size resulting in increased capital costs. These models were also used to examine public policy scenarios, uniquely presenting their impact on the breakeven cost of fuel production and sensitivity to scenario assumptions. Specifically, depreciation type was shown to be irrelevant for write offs faster than 10 years. Due to discounting, short-term subsidies were found to capture 50% of the subsidy value in 6 years with an additional24 years required for full subsidy valuation. Integration of a carbon economy was shown to decrease biofuel production costs, particularly for the protein pathway due to the co-product accounting. Finally, a metric of normalized costs was used to compare algal biorefineries to corn and cellulosic ethanol production, showing that algal systems are uniquely different due to significantly higher capital costs, though operational costs are comparable. Overall, this work demonstrates that, to reach economic viability, algal biofuel production must either utilize higher value non-fuel co-products or achieve drastic reductions in capital costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Research goals for minimizing the cost of CO 2 capture when using steam methane reforming for hydrogen production

This paper presents a techno-economic assessment of adding state-of-the-art solvent-based CO 2 capture technologies to greenfield steam methane reforming (SMR)-based H 2 production plants and quantifies the impacts of improvements in CO 2 capture technology. Current conventional capture technologies are reviewed, and future technologies in intermediate and long-term scenarios are analyzed. The results show that adding significantly more efficient solvent-based capture technologies leads to an equivalent rate of natural gas consumption as that of a conventional SMR plant without capture, despite capturing most of the CO 2 and producing the same amount of H 2 . Overall, improvements in reboiler duty and reductions in capital costs can significantly reduce the cost of H 2 production and cost of capture. Particularly, the reboiler duty of pre-combustion capture and the capital cost of post-combustion capture have the greatest impact. Based on the results, research goals are suggested. Solvent development is recommended—particularly pre-combustion solvents—for reducing the reboiler duties, and process schemes to reduce the capital costs. Costlier but more efficient solvents can be considered. A sensitivity analysis using natural gas price shows that technological improvements can reduce the impacts of high natural gas prices. The degree of economic feasibility of CO 2 capture increases with improvements to the capture technology.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cost analysis of alternative large-scale high-temperature solid oxide electrolysis hydrogen production facilities

We extend our past cost analysis of gigawatt-scale solid oxide electrolysis (SOE) facilities that produce high purity hydrogen gas from water by estimating construction and operating costs for three new alternative design cases: (1) offsite feed steam generation; (2) near-atmospheric pressure (NAP) stack; and (3) onsite electric boiler feed steam generation. Pressure effects on hydrogen electrode-(cathode-)supported SOE cell (SOEC) stack performance are estimated for the same assumed cell and stack construction and used to determine facility-wide stack capital costs for achieving a fixed H2 production at different pressures. Modular balance of plant (BOP) process equipment capital costs are estimated for each new alternative design case using our past equipment sizing, design, and cost data and scaling relationships. Furthermore, we update BOP equipment sizing and design for the NAP case using Aspen®. Vendor quotes for electric boilers are used to estimate costs for the electric boiler design case. Factory and onsite assembly and installation costs for SOEC stacks and BOP equipment are calculated using our past simplified first-principles approach. First-of-a-kind (FOAK) and N th -of-a-kind (NOAK) production maturity cost estimates are included for all results. The case with NAP stacks offers the lowest facility total capital cost (TCC, ~23% lower than base) while use of small electric boilers requires the highest TCC (~3% higher than base). H 2 production prices decrease from the base of ~$\$2.17$ /kgH 2 to ~$\$1.92$/kgH 2 for 1 GW e DC SIP facilities utilizing NAP stacks supplied by offsites steam situated in large modules and blocks for $\$0.030$/kWh e and $0.009/kWh t prices for electricity and thermal energy, respectively. We report all costs in 2021 US dollars.

Balance of plant (BOP) process equipment↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic analysis of long-duration energy storage and flexible power generation technologies to support high-variable renewable energy grids

As variable renewable energy penetration increases beyond 80%, clean power systems will require long-duration energy storage or flexible, low-carbon generation. Here, we provide a detailed techno-economic evaluation and uncertainty analysis of applicable technologies and identify challenges and opportunities to support electric grid planning. We show that for a 120-h storage duration rating, hydrogen systems with geologic storage and natural gas with carbon capture are the least-cost low-carbon technologies for both current and future capital costs. These results are robust to uncertainty for the future capital cost scenario, but adiabatic compressed air and pumped thermal storage could be the least-cost technologies in the current capital cost scenario under uncertainty. Finally, we present a new storage system using heavy-duty vehicle fuel cells that could reduce the levelized cost of energy by 13%–20% compared with the best previously considered storage technology and, thus, could help enable very high (>80%) renewable energy grids.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Assessing the costs of municipal solid waste treatment technologies in developing Asian countries

Highlights: • Municipal waste treatment costs are assessed for the first time in developing Asia. • A database with primary and secondary data from existing plants was prepared. • Capital and operational expenditures patterns were analyzed and discussed. • Incineration identified by large margin as the costliest approach for treating waste. • Context specific circumstances are key to explain deviations from the norm. - Abstract: The management of municipal solid waste (MSW) is one of the main costs incurred by local authorities in developing countries. According to some estimates, these costs can account for up to 50% of city government budgets. It is therefore of importance that policymakers, urban planners and practitioners have an adequate understanding of what these costs consist of, from collection to final waste disposal. This article focuses on a specific stage of the MSW value chain, the treatment of waste, and it aims to identify cost patterns associated with the implementation and operation of waste treatment approaches in developing Asian countries. An analysis of the capital (CAPEX) and operational expenditures (OPEX) of a number of facilities located in countries of the region was conducted based on a database gathering nearly 100 projects and which served as basis for assessing four technology categories: composting, anaerobic digestion (AD), thermal treatment, and the production of refuse-derived fuel (RDF). Among these, it was found that the least costly to invest, as a function of the capacity to process waste, are composting facilities, with an average CAPEX per ton of 21,493 USD{sub 2015}/ton. Conversely, at the upper end featured incineration plants, with an average CAPEX of 81,880 USD{sub 2015}/ton, with this treatment approach ranking by and large as the most capital intensive of the four categories assessed. OPEX figures of the plants, normalized and analyzed in the form of OPEX/ton, were also found to be higher for incineration than for biological treatment methods, although on this component differences amongst the technology groups were less pronounced than those observed for CAPEX. While the results indicated the existence of distinct cost implications for available treatment approaches in the developing Asian context, the analysis also underscored the importance of understanding the local context as a means to properly identify the cost structure of each specific plant. Moreover, even though CAPEX and OPEX figures are important elements to assess the costs of a waste treatment system, these should not be considered on a standalone basis for decision making purposes. In complement to this internal cost dimension, the broader impacts – to the economy, society and the environment – resulting from the adoption of a certain treatment approach should be properly understood and, ideally, measured and expressed in monetary terms.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Analysis of Water Oxidation and Hydrogen Oxidation at the Anode in a CO 2 Electrolysis to Ethylene System

We compare the economic viability of employing hydrogen oxidation versus water oxidation at the anode of a commercial-scale electrolysis plant that converts CO 2 to ethylene. We vary the electrolyzer capital cost, membrane lifetime, and renewable electricity price to represent a current and future market scenario. We find that anodic hydrogen oxidation with membraneless reactor design can reduce the electrolyzer capital cost by up to 48% and reduce electricity demand by at least 50% with the current underdeveloped electrolyzer market. These capital and operating cost savings could further lead to a lower ethylene production cost from anodic hydrogen oxidation than the anodic water oxidation system with hydrogen supplied at less than $\$6$ kg. In the future scenario with a fully developed electrolyzer market and cheap renewable electricity, we find that the anodic hydrogen oxidation system requires hydrogen cheaper than $0.7/kg to compete with the anodic water oxidation system. Moreover, hydrogen oxidation at the anode enables extremely low cradle-to-gate emission ethylene by utilizing negative emission hydrogen such as biomass gasification with carbon capture and sequestration, ~240% lower than ethylene produced from the wind/solar electricity-driven water oxidation system. Furthermore, this low carbon footprint ethylene can further boost the economic competitiveness for anodic hydrogen oxidation with a future carbon credit market.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments

Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗