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At least 217 records · Page 12

Solar Process Heat Potential in California, USA

The cost for solar industrial process heat (SIPH) is quantified by defining the levelized cost of heat (LCOH). The state of California, in the United States offers a favorable environment for SIPH given its excellent insolation, industrial gas prices typically higher than the national average, and policies promoting solarthermal deployment. Given historically low gas prices, competing with natural gas remains the primary challenge to deployment. However, this study finds that the solar LCOH from Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) collectors for many regions in California is expected to be lower than the LCOH from natural gas, using a representative installed solar hardware price and the average price for industrial natural gas in California. Lastly, modifications are in progress to the parabolic trough and Direct Steam Generation (DSG) trough and Linear Fresnel models within NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) to allow users to more easily predict performance for these industrial heat and steam-generation applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Maximizing the Value of Photovoltaic Installations on Schools in California: Choosing the Best Electricity Rates

Schools in California often have a choice between multiple electricity rate options. For schools with photovoltaic (PV) installations, choosing the right rate is essential to maximize the value of PV generation. The rate option that minimizes a school's electricity expenses often does not remain the most economical choice after the school installs a PV system. The complex interaction between PVgeneration, building load, and rate structure makes determining the best rate a challenging task. This report evaluates 22 rate structures across three of California's largest electric utilities--Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE), and San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E)--in order to identify common rate structure attributes that are favorable to PVinstallations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Market and behavioral barriers to energy efficiency: A preliminary evaluation of the case for tariff financing in California

Consumers regularly forgo purchases of high efficiency appliances that appear to be cost effective at a reasonable rate of return. While some argue that this is a true revelation of preferences for appliance features, this 'efficiency gap' can be largely explained by a combination of market and behavioral failures that reduce consumers ability to evaluate the relative value of appliances and skew preferences toward initial cost savings, undervaluing future reductions in operating costs. These failures and barriers include externalities of energy use, imperfect competition between manufacturers, asymmetric information, bounded rationality, split incentives, and transaction costs (Golove 1996). Recognizing the social benefit of energy conservation, several major methods are used by policymakers to ensure that efficient appliances are purchased: minimum efficiency standards, Energy Star labeling, and rebates and tax credits. There is no single market for energy services; there are hundreds of uses, thousands of intermediaries, and millions of users, and likewise, no single appropriate government intervention (Golove 1996). Complementary approaches must be implemented, considering policy and institutional limitations. In this paper, I first lay out the rationale for government intervention by addressing the market and behavioral failures and barriers that arise in the context of residential energy efficiency. I then consider the ways in which some of these failures and barriers are addressed through major federal programs and state and utility level programs that leverage them, as well as identifying barriers that are not addressed by currently implemented programs. Heterogeneity of consumers, lack of financing options, and split incentives of landlords and tenants contribute significantly to the under-adoption of efficient appliances. To quantify the size of the market most affected by these barriers, I estimate the number of appliances, and in particular the number of outdated appliances, in California rental housing. Appliances in rental housing are on average older than those in owner occupied housing. More importantly, a substantial proportion of very old appliances are in rental housing. Having established that a very old stock of appliances exists in California rental housing, I discuss tariff financing as a policy option to reduce the impact of the remaining market and behavioral barriers. In a tariff financing program, the utility pays the initial cost of an appliance, and is repaid through subsequent utility bills. By eliminating upfront costs, tying repayment to the gas or electric meter, requiring a detailed energy audit, and relying upon utility bill payment history rather than credit score in determining participant eligibility, tariff financing largely overcomes many barriers to energy efficiency. Using California as a case study, I evaluate the feasibility of implementing tariff financing. For water heaters in particular, this appears to be a cost-effective strategy. Tariff financing from utilities is particularly valuable because it improves the ability of low-income renters to lower their utility bills, without burdening landlords with unrecoverable capital costs. To implement tariff financing country-wide, regulations in many states defining private loan-making institutions or the allowable use of public benefit funds may need to be modified. Tariff financing is relatively new and in most locations is only available as a pilot program or has only recently exited pilot phase. This preliminary evaluation suggests that tariff financing is a valuable future addition to the toolkit of policymakers who aim to increase the diffusion of efficient appliances. While regulatory approval is necessary in states that wish to pursue tariff financing, at this point, the major barrier to further implementation appears to be the newness of the financing mechanism.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Final Report Feasibility Study for the California Wave Energy Test Center (CalWavesm)

The California Wave Energy Test Center (CalWave) Feasibility Study project was funded over multiple phases by the Department of Energy to perform an interdisciplinary feasibility assessment to analyze the engineering, permitting, and stakeholder requirements to establish an open water, fully energetic, grid connected, wave energy test center off the coast of California for the purposes of advancing U.S. wave energy research, development, and testing capabilities. Work under this grant included wave energy resource characterization, grid impact and interconnection requirements, port infrastructure and maritime industry capability/suitability to accommodate the industry at research, demonstration and commercial scale, and macro and micro siting considerations. CalWave Phase I performed a macro-siting and down-selection process focusing on two potential test sites in California: Humboldt Bay and Vandenberg Air Force Base. This work resulted in the Vandenberg Air Force Base site being chosen as the most favorable site based on a peer reviewed criteria matrix. CalWave Phase II focused on four siting location alternatives along the Vandenberg Air Force Base coastline and culminated with a final siting down-selection. Key outcomes from this work include completion of preliminary engineering and systems integration work, a robust turnkey cost estimate, shoreside and subsea hazards assessment, storm wave analysis, lessons learned reports from several maritime disciplines, test center benchmarking as compared to existing international test sites, analysis of existing applicable environmental literature, the completion of a preliminary regulatory, permitting and licensing roadmap, robust interaction and engagement with state and federal regulatory agency personnel and local stakeholders, and the population of a Draft Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Preliminary Application Document (PAD). Analysis of existing offshore oil and gas infrastructure was also performed to assess the potential value and re-use scenarios of offshore platform infrastructure and associated subsea power cables and shoreside substations. The CalWave project team was well balanced and was comprised of experts from industry, academia, state and federal regulatory agencies. The result of the CalWave feasibility study finds that the CalWave Test Center has the potential to provide the most viable path to commercialization for wave energy in the United States.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Baja California Sur Renewable Integration Study

The goal of the Baja California Sur Renewable Integration Study (BAJA-RIS) is to evaluate the potential impacts of increasing penetrations of wind and solar power on Baja California Sur's bulk power system operations. Studying the impact of wind and solar power on power system operations is interesting and challenging because of the variable and uncertain nature of wind and solar resources. Baja California Sur is a very interesting and relevant region to study renewable integration impacts because its power system is an electrical island; most of its electricity is generated by burning expensive imported fossil fuels (oil and diesel), making it the power system in Mexico with the highest electricity variable generation costs and the most polluting; its electricity consumption is expected to grow significantly; and it has significant renewable energy resource potential in terms of wind power and especially in terms of solar power.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada

Geothermal project development in the United States may be subject to numerous permits, authorizations, and other regulatory requirements at the federal, state, and local level, which are necessary to address potential environmental and resource impacts at geothermal project sites. This report presents the findings of our study, including an analysis of federal, state, and local geothermal regulatory and permitting processes, case studies analyzing site-specific attributes that may impact project development at four selected geothermal project sites, an analysis of cost and timeline implications for geothermal project development, and the results of a qualitative study focused on inter-agency coordination and collaboration efforts between federal, state, and/or local agencies for geothermal projects located in California and Nevada. Our analysis found that development timelines may be impacted by multiple federal and state environmental review processes and duplicative permitting requirements as well as coordination efforts between numerous federal, state, and local agencies involved in issuing authorizations and permits necessary for project development. In addition, projects in California and Nevada may face site-specific environmental challenges due to the presence of sensitive resources (e.g., biological species and species habitat, cultural resources) that may result in project construction delays. Our study results also indicate that protracted geothermal development timelines caused by delays in acquiring necessary permits and environmental reviews may result in loss of generated electricity revenue and additional financing costs, which may increase economic uncertainty associated with project development. Through our qualitative analysis, we found that utilization of best practices, including tiering to existing environmental review documents and developing memoranda of understanding, which clearly delineate agency roles and responsibilities may reduce overall project timelines, costs, and uncertainties associated with geothermal project development in California and Nevada.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada [Slides]

This presentation presents the findings of our study, including an analysis of federal, state, and local geothermal regulatory and permitting processes, case studies analyzing site-specific attributes that may impact project development at four selected geothermal project sites, an analysis of cost and timeline implications for geothermal project development, and the results of a qualitative study focused on inter-agency coordination and collaboration efforts between federal, state, and/or local agencies for geothermal projects located in California and Nevada. Our analysis found that development timelines may be impacted by multiple federal and state environmental review processes and duplicative permitting requirements as well as coordination efforts between numerous federal, state, and local agencies involved in issuing authorizations and permits necessary for project development. In addition, projects in California and Nevada may face site-specific environmental challenges due to the presence of sensitive resources (e.g., biological species and species habitat, cultural resources) that may result in project construction delays. Our study results also indicate that protracted geothermal development timelines caused by delays in acquiring necessary permits and environmental reviews may result in loss of generated electricity revenue and additional financing costs, which may increase economic uncertainty associated with project development. Through our qualitative analysis, we found that utilization of best practices, including tiering to existing environmental review documents and developing memoranda of understanding, which clearly delineate agency roles and responsibilities may reduce overall project timelines, costs, and uncertainties associated with geothermal project development in California and Nevada.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

California Bridge to the EIC: Building a Diverse Workforce for Nuclear Physics Research at the Electron Ion Collider

The California Bridge to the Electron Ion Collider traineeship program established an integrated workforce development effort connecting University of California campuses, California State University Minority Serving Institutions, and DOE national laboratories. The program expanded participation in nuclear physics research among students from underrepresented and socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds while strengthening collaborative activities aligned with the future Electron Ion Collider. During the award period, trainees conducted experimental, theoretical, and computational research, participated in consortium meetings and national laboratory collaborations, and received structured mentoring and professional development. The program achieved strong outcomes in graduate school placement, STEM career transitions, and sustained engagement with DOE Nuclear Physics research.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Offshore low-level jet observations and model representation using lidar buoy data off the California coast

Abstract. Low-level jets (LLJs) occur under a variety of atmospheric conditions and influence the available wind resource for wind energy projects. In 2020, lidar-mounted buoys owned by the US Department of Energy (DOE) were deployed off the California coast in two wind energy lease areas administered by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management: Humboldt and Morro Bay. The wind profile observations from the lidars and collocated near-surface meteorological stations (4–240 m) provide valuable year-long analyses of offshore LLJ characteristics at heights relevant to wind turbines. At Humboldt, LLJs were associated with flow reversals and north-northeasterly winds, directions that are more aligned with terrain influences than the predominant northerly flow. At Morro Bay, coastal LLJs were observed primarily during northerly flow as opposed to the predominant north-northwesterly flow. LLJs were observed more frequently in colder seasons within the lowest 250 m a.s.l. (above sea level), in contrast with the summertime occurrence of the higher-altitude California coastal jet influenced by the North Pacific High, which typically occurs at heights of 300–400 m. The lidar buoy observations also validate LLJ representation in atmospheric models that estimate potential energy yield of offshore wind farms. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) was unsuccessful at identifying all observed LLJs at both buoy locations within the lowest 200 m. An extension of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 20-year wind resource dataset for the Outer Continental Shelf off the coast of California (CA20-Ext) yielded marginally greater captures of observed LLJs using the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme than the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset (NOW-23), which uses the Yonsei University (YSU) scheme. However, CA20-Ext also produced the most LLJ false alarms, which are instances when a model identified an LLJ but no LLJ was observed. CA20-Ext and NOW-23 exhibited a tendency to overestimate the duration of LLJ events and underestimate LLJ core heights.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Contribution of Anthropogenic Warming to California Drought During 2012-2014

A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

California↗

Overgeneration from Solar Energy in California - A Field Guide to the Duck Chart

In 2013, the California Independent System Operator published the "duck chart,"" which shows a significant drop in mid-day net load on a spring day as solar photovoltaics (PV) are added to the system. The chart raises concerns that the conventional power system will be unable to accommodate the ramp rate and range needed to fully utilize solar energy, particularly on days characterized by the duck shape. This could result in "overgeneration"" and curtailed renewable energy, increasing its costs and reducing its environmental benefits. This paper explores the duck chart in detail, examining how much PV might need to be curtailed if additional grid flexibility measures are not taken, and how curtailment rates can be decreased by changing grid operational practices. It finds that under business-as-usual types of assumptions and corresponding levels of grid flexibility in California, solar penetrations as low as 20 percent of annual energy could lead to marginal curtailment rates that exceed 30 percent. However, by allowing (or requiring) distributed PV and storage (including new installations that are part of the California storage mandate) to provide grid services, system flexibility could be greatly enhanced. Doing so could significantly reduce curtailment and allow much greater penetration of variable generation resources in achieving a 50 percent renewable portfolio standard. Overall, the work described in this paper points to the need to fully integrate distributed resources into grid system planning and operations to allow maximum use of the solar resource.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Potential for Jobs and Economic Development from Offshore Wind in California

In California's future scenarios, energy demand increases with population growth and productivity. Decision-makers will have to make choices about which energy resources to utilize, and offshore wind offers one option for carbon-free electricity with the potential for increased local jobs. This presentation discusses results from an NREL report, Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios. Presenter Suzanne Tegen describes the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model and its results for two offshore wind scenarios in California. She discusses different assumptions and how they affect the scenarios.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

California Hydrogen Research Consortium

This presentation describes fiscal year 2019 status and accomplishments of the California Hydrogen Research Consortium project, a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and several California agencies. The technical research capability of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory will be used to assist California in decisions and evaluations, as well as to verify solutions to problems impacting the hydrogen and fuel cell industry.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

California Time-of-Use (TOU) Transition: Effects on Distributed Wind and Solar Economic Potential

Time-of-use (TOU) retail energy rates price electricity differently by the time of day, communicating to consumers the costs of supplying electricity diurnally. This study evaluates the impact of Decision D.15.07-001, which mandates a transition in 2020 to default TOU rates for residential ratepayers in California, on the economic viability of behind-the-meter distributed wind and solar systems. Previous studies have demonstrated that increasing wind and solar generation will materially affect the diurnal cost of wholesale electricity. As retail and wholesale prices become more aligned, this could affect the inter-technology economic viability of distributed generation. We assess economic viability through 'economic potential,' or the amount of generation capacity that exceeds a rate of return of 5.4%. In addition, we identify sensitivities of economic potential to capital costs and other techno-economic factors as well as the specific counties and sectors with substantial economic potential. We find that TOU implementation is projected to moderately increase economic potential of distributed wind and marginally decrease that of distributed solar. Over the long-term as variable renewable energy penetration increases in California, particularly utility-scale solar, net peak load and thus peak prices will shift later in the evening. To the extent that retail rates continue to evolve with wholesale prices, we find the changes could positively affect the value of wind generation more than that of solar generation. Over the scenarios considered, model results indicate realistic pathways to reaching a robust distributed wind market in California though solar economic potential was found to be substantially larger than that of wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Data-model files associated with the manuscript "Modeling the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Coastal Hydrology: A Case Study of Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California"

This package contains the data, simulation setups, notebooks and figures used in “Modeling the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Coastal Hydrology: A Case Study of Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California” (Xu et al., 2025). In this study, we selected Elkhorn Slough, a tidal estuary, in California, to investigate the impact of wetland restoration and sea level rise on coastal hydrology using the process-based coastal hydrologic model, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), informed by site-specific data. We designed a novel modeling workflow for incorporating wetland restoration features into land cover and soil properties for the model parameterization. The validation results demonstrate a strong agreement between modeled and observed data. We studied the characteristics of coastal watershed hydrology, then focused on the surface water dynamics at two wetland sites within Elkhorn Slough, a reference site and a restored site. Our simulation results indicate that the restored site successfully maintains surface elevation, resulting in reduced surface inundation. We also examined the impact of wetland restoration under expected sea level rise over the next few decades. The low-lying Yampah Marsh, the reference site, is likely to be inundated due to future sea level rise when highest tides arrive; while a higher percentage of Hester Marsh, the restored site, would retain marsh vegetation in coming decades, regardless of tidal conditions. Our study provides important information for examining the outcome of restoration practices that include surface elevation in tidal wetlands under climate changes.Several files can be found from this data package.1. README.md: This file describes the title, journal, co-authors, abstract, repository structure and model version.2. Simulation_Setups.zip: The file contains the model configuration files (XML format) for ATS. 3. Notebooks.zip: The file contains the Jupyter notebooks for generating the pre- and post-restoration meshes and the meshes of future scenarios. 4. Figures.zip: The file contains the figures used in the manuscript.5. Data.zip: The file contains the data used to drive the model simulations, including watershed and wetlands boundaries, mesh files and references to additional datasets (e.g., meteorological forcing, tidal dataset, DEMs, land cover, soil properties). Also, it contains water level observations at the restored wetland.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulating estimation of California fossil fuel and biosphere carbon dioxide exchanges combining in situ tower and satellite column observations

Here, we report simulation experiments estimating the uncertainties in California regional fossil fuel and biosphere CO 2 exchanges that might be obtained by using an atmospheric inverse modeling system driven by the combination of ground-based observations of radiocarbon and total CO 2 , together with column-mean CO 2 observations from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2). The work includes an initial examination of statistical uncertainties in prior models for CO 2 exchange, in radiocarbon-based fossil fuel CO 2 measurements, in OCO-2 measurements, and in a regional atmospheric transport modeling system. Using these nominal assumptions for measurement and model uncertainties, we find that flask measurements of radiocarbon and total CO 2 at 10 towers can be used to distinguish between different fossil fuel emission data products for major urban regions of California. We then show that the combination of flask and OCO-2 observations yields posterior uncertainties in monthly-mean fossil fuel emissions of ~5–10%, levels likely useful for policy relevant evaluation of bottom-up fossil fuel emission estimates. Similarly, we find that inversions yield uncertainties in monthly biosphere CO 2 exchange of ~6%–12%, depending on season, providing useful information on net carbon uptake in California's forests and agricultural lands. Finally, initial sensitivity analysis suggests that obtaining the above results requires control of systematic biases below approximately 0.5 ppm, placing requirements on accuracy of the atmospheric measurements, background subtraction, and atmospheric transport modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stress Models of the Annual Hydrospheric, Atmospheric, Thermal, and Tidal Loading Cycles on California Faults: Perturbation of Background Stress and Changes in Seismicity

Stresses in the lithosphere arise from multiple natural loading sources that include both surface and body forces. The largest surface loads include near-surface water storage, snow and ice, atmosphere pressure, ocean loading, and temperature changes. The solid Earth also deforms from celestial body interactions and variations in Earth's rotation. We model the seasonal stress changes in California from 2006 through 2014 for seven different loading sources with annual periods to produce an aggregate stressing history for faults in the study area. Our modeling shows that the annual water loading, atmosphere, temperature, and Earth pole tides are the largest loading sources and should each be evaluated to fully describe seasonal stress changes. In California we find that the hydrological loads are the largest source of seasonal stresses. We explore the seasonal stresses with respect to the background principal stress orientation constrained with regional focal mechanisms and analyze the modulation of seismicity. Our results do not suggest a resolvable seasonal variation for the ambient stress orientation in the shallow crust. When projecting the seasonal stresses into the background stress orientation we find that the timing of microseismicity modestly increases from an ~8 kPa seasonal mean-normal-stress perturbation. The results suggest that faults in California are optimally oriented with the background stress field and respond to subsurface pressure changes, possibly due to processes we have not considered in this study. At any time a population of faults are near failure as evident from earthquakes triggered by these slight seasonal stress perturbations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of the Structure of Water Rights on Agricultural Production During Drought: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of California's Central Valley

Abstract California's Central Valley region has been called the “bread‐basket” of the United States. The region is home to one of the most productive agricultural systems on the planet. Such high levels of agricultural productivity require large amounts of fresh water for irrigation. However, the long‐term availability of water required to sustain high levels of agricultural production is being called into question following the latest drought in California. In this paper, we use Bayesian multilevel spatiotemporal modeling techniques to examine the influence of the structure of surface water rights in the Central Valley on agricultural production during the recent drought. California is an important place to study these dynamics as it is the only state to recognize the two dominant approaches to surface water management in the United States: riparian and appropriative rights. In this study, Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling is employed to account for spatial processes that have the potential to influence the effects of water right structures on agricultural production. Results suggest that, after accounting for spatiotemporal dependencies in the data, seniority in surface water access significantly improves crop health and productivity on cultivated lands but does not independently affect the ability to maintain cultivated extent. In addition, agricultural productivity in watersheds with more junior surface water rights shows less sensitivity to cumulative drought exposure than other watersheds, however the extent of cultivation in these same watersheds is relatively more sensitive to cumulative drought exposure.

Nelson, K. S.↗