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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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A Data Set for Intercomparing the Transient Behavior of Dynamical Model-Based Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions
Climate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts, and biases, which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies between different components of the coupled models and from the tendency of the model state to evolve from the prescribed initial conditions toward its own climatology over the course of the prediction. Aiming to provide tools and further insight into the mechanisms responsible for initial shocks, drifts, and biases, this paper presents a novel data set developed within the Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project, LRFTIP. This data set has been constructed by averaging hindcasts over available prediction years and ensemble members to form a hindcast climatology, that is a function of spatial variables and lead time, and thus results in a useful tool for characterizing and assessing the evolution of errors as well as the physical mechanisms responsible for them. A discussion on such errors at the different time scales is provided along with plausible ways forward in the field of climate predictions
VpROM: a novel variational autoencoder-boosted reduced order model for the treatment of parametric dependencies in nonlinear systems
Reduced Order Models (ROMs) are of considerable importance in many areas of engineering in which computational time presents difficulties. Established approaches employ projection-based reduction, such as Proper Orthogonal Decomposition. The limitation of the linear nature of such operators is typically tackled via a library of local reduction subspaces, which requires the assembly of numerous local ROMs to address parametric dependencies. Our work attempts to define a more generalisable mapping between parametric inputs and reduced bases for the purpose of generative modeling. We propose the use of Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) in place of the typically utilised clustering or interpolation operations, for inferring the fundamental vectors, termed as modes, which approximate the manifold of the model response for any and each parametric input state. The derived ROM still relies on projection bases, built on the basis of full-order model simulations, thus retaining the imprinted physical connotation. However, it additionally exploits a matrix of coefficients that relates each local sample response and dynamics to the global phenomena across the parametric input domain. The VAE scheme is utilised for approximating these coefficients for any input state. This coupling leads to a high-precision low-order representation, which is particularly suited for problems where model dependencies or excitation traits cause the dynamic behavior to span multiple response regimes. Moreover, the probabilistic treatment of the VAE representation allows for uncertainty quantification on the reduction bases, which may then be propagated to the ROM response. The performance of the proposed approach is validated on an open-source simulation benchmark featuring hysteresis and multi-parametric dependencies, and on a large-scale wind turbine tower characterised by nonlinear material behavior and model uncertainty.
Physical Modeling of Coupled Thermohydraulic Behavior of Compacted MX80 Bentonite during Heating
Abstract This paper describes a tank-scale test setup and experimental methodology used to investigate coupled heat transfer and water flow processes during heating of compacted MX80 bentonite to high temperatures. Specifically, a temperature of 200°C was maintained by a cylindrical heating element at the center of a compacted bentonite layer containing an array of temperature, dielectric, and relative humidity sensors. In addition to providing an evaluation of the spatiotemporal variations in temperature, relative humidity, degree of saturation, and global volume, the coupled thermohydraulic properties of the bentonite were assessed. A wetting front was initially observed to move away from the central heater, followed by a drying process until reaching thermohydraulic equilibrium. The soil–water retention curve (SWRC) of the bentonite followed a wetting scanning path before following the primary drying path exhibiting a shift in water retention with elevated temperature. Results from the tank-scale test can be used for validation of numerical simulations of drying processes in the engineered barrier system of a high-level radioactive waste geological disposal repository and confirm that a temperature-dependent hysteretic SWRC with scanning paths is required to accurately capture the bentonite response.
Advancing wildfire modeling for improved fire behavior understanding [Slides]
Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI): Region where houses meet or overlap the wildland vegetation. Buffer distance: distance between flammable vegetation and human settlements.
Modeling Pulsed Magnetic Core Behavior in LTSpice
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Surrogate Models for Analyzing Performance Behavior of HPC Applications Using the RAJA Performance Suite
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Recurrent Convolutional Deep Neural Networks for Modeling Time-Resolved Wildfire Spread Behavior
The increasing incidence and severity of wildfires underscores the necessity of accurately predicting their behavior. While high-fidelity models derived from first principles offer physical accuracy, they are too computationally expensive for use in real-time fire response. Low-fidelity models sacrifice some physical accuracy and generalizability via the integration of empirical measurements, but enable real-time simulations for operational use in fire response. Machine learning techniques have demonstrated the ability to bridge these objectives by learning first-principles physics while achieving computational speedups. While deep learning approaches have demonstrated the ability to predict wildfire propagation over large time periods, time-resolved fire-spread predictions are needed for active fire management. Here, in this work, we evaluate the ability of deep learning approaches in accurately modeling the time-resolved dynamics of wildfires. We use an autoregressive process in which a convolutional recurrent deep learning model makes predictions that propagate a wildfire over 15 min increments. We apply the model to four simulated datasets of increasing complexity, containing both field fires with homogeneous fuel distribution as well as real-world topologies sampled from the California region of the United States. We show that even after 100 autoregressive predictions representing more than 24 h of simulated fire spread, the resulting models generate stable and realistic propagation dynamics, achieving a Jaccard score between 0.89 and 0.94 when predicting the resulting fire scar. The inference time of the deep learning models are examined and compared, and directions for future work are discussed.
Bayesian Conavigation: Dynamic Designing of the Material Digital Twins via Active Learning
Scientific advancement is universally based on the dynamic interplay between theoretical insights, modeling, and experimental discoveries. However, this feedback loop is often slow, including delayed community interactions and the gradual integration of experimental data into theoretical frameworks. This challenge is particularly exacerbated in domains dealing with high-dimensional object spaces, such as molecules and complex microstructures. Hence, the integration of theory within automated and autonomous experimental setups, or theory in the loop-automated experiment, is emerging as a crucial objective for accelerating scientific research. The critical aspect is to use not only theory but also on-the-fly theory updates during the experiment. Furthermore, we introduce a method for integrating theory into the loop through Bayesian conavigation of theoretical model space and experimentation. Our approach leverages the concurrent development of surrogate models for both simulation and experimental domains at the rates determined by latencies and costs of experiments and computation, alongside the adjustment of control parameters within theoretical models to minimize epistemic uncertainty over the experimental object spaces. This methodology facilitates the creation of digital twins of material structures, encompassing both the surrogate model of behavior that includes the correlative part and the theoretical model itself. While being demonstrated here within the context of functional responses in ferroelectric materials, our approach holds promise for broader applications, such as the exploration of optical properties in nanoclusters, microstructure-dependent properties in complex materials, and properties of molecular systems.
Ion temperature anisotropy in the tokamak scrape-off layer
Understanding tokamak exhaust-power heat loads on divertor plates depends critically on having a realistic model of the scrape-off layer (SOL) plasma. The Braginskii fluid model is often solved to understand the SOL plasma behavior. This model is based on the collisional limit for transport along the magnetic field B → . The ions and electron gyrofrequencies are assumed to be much larger than the Coulomb collision frequencies, which are nonetheless, sufficiently large to yield common parallel and perpendicular temperatures for each species, i.e. the temperatures are assumed to be isotropic. Additionally, in certain circumstances such as encountered for the tokamak H-mode, the ion temperature can be quite anisotropic. In this work, the anisotropy effects are implemented in the two-dimensional (2D) transport code UEDGE. Various geometries (1D slab, 2D slab and a toroidal tokamak geometry) are used to study the 2D structure of ion temperature anisotropy and its effects on plasma transport in detail. Results show that the effects of ion temperature anisotropy on the plasma parallel transport are substantial near the magnetic X-point, which leads to different steady state density profiles in the divertor regions. The extra mirror force introduced by ion temperature anisotropy can be one of the main forces contributing to the plasma flow in the SOL.
SRF Cavity Instability Detection with Machine Learning at CEBAF
During the operation of CEBAF, one or more unstable superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities often cause beam loss trips while the unstable cavities themselves do not necessarily trip off. Identifying an unstable cavity out of the hundreds of cavities installed at CEBAF is difficult and time-consuming. The present RF controls for the legacy cavities report at only 1 Hz, which is too slow to detect fast transient instabilities. A fast data acquisition system for the legacy SRF cavities is being developed which samples and reports at 5 kHz to allow for detection of transients. A prototype chassis has been installed and tested in CEBAF. An autoencoder based machine learning model is being developed to identify anomalous SRF cavity behavior. The model is presently being trained on the slow (1 Hz) data that is currently available, and a separate model will be developed and trained using the fast (5 kHz) DAQ data once it becomes available. This paper will discuss the present status of the new fast data acquisition system and results of testing the prototype chassis. This paper will also detail the initial performance metrics of the autoencoder model.
SRF Cavity Instability Detection with Machine Learning at CEBAF
During the operation of CEBAF, one or more unstable superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities often cause beam loss trips while the unstable cavities themselves do not necessarily trip off. Identifying an unstable cavity out of the hundreds of cavities installed at CEBAF is difficult and time-consuming. The present RF controls for the legacy cavities report at only 1 Hz, which is too slow to detect fast transient instabilities. A fast data acquisition system for the legacy SRF cavities is being developed which samples and reports at 5 kHz to allow for detection of transients. A prototype chassis has been installed and tested in CEBAF. An autoencoder based machine learning model is being developed to identify anomalous SRF cavity behavior. The model is presently being trained on the slow (1 Hz) data that is currently available, and a separate model will be developed and trained using the fast (5 kHz) DAQ data once it becomes available. This paper will discuss the present status of the new fast data acquisition system and results of testing the prototype chassis. This paper will also detail the initial performance metrics of the autoencoder model.
Can we use antipredator behavior theory to predict wildlife responses to high-speed vehicles?
Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle scenario. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypotheses and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative predictions on escape distance when parameterized with empirical data from the literature, and (c) evaluating their sensitivity to vehicle approach speed using a simulation approach wherein we assessed model performance based on changes in effect size with variations in the slope of the flight initiation distance (FID) vs. approach speed relationship. The slope of the FID vs. approach speed relationship was then related back to three different behavioral rules animals may rely on to avoid approaching threats: the spatial, temporal, or delayed margin of safety. We used literature on birds for goals (b) and (c). Our review considered the following eight models: the economic escape model, Blumstein’s economic escape model, the optimal escape model, the perceptual limit hypothesis, the visual cue model, the flush early and avoid the rush (FEAR) hypothesis, the looming stimulus hypothesis, and the Bayesian model of escape behavior. We were able to generate quantitative predictions about escape distance with the last five models. However, we were only able to assess sensitivity to vehicle approach speed for the last three models. The FEAR hypothesis is most sensitive to high-speed vehicles when the species follows the spatial (FID remains constant as speed increases) and the temporal margin of safety (FID increases with an increase in speed) rules of escape. The looming stimulus effect hypothesis reached small to intermediate levels of sensitivity to high-speed vehicles when a species follows the delayed margin of safety (FID decreases with an increase in speed). The Bayesian optimal escape model reached intermediate levels of sensitivity to approach speed across all escape rules (spatial, temporal, delayed margins of safety) but only for larger (> 1 kg) species, but was not sensitive to speed for smaller species. Overall, no single antipredator behavior model could characterize all different types of escape responses relative to vehicle approach speed but some models showed some levels of sensitivity for certain rules of escape behavior. We derive some applied applications of our findings by suggesting the estimation of critical vehicle approach speeds for managing populations that are especially susceptible to road mortality. Overall, we recommend that new escape behavior models specifically tailored to high-speeds vehicles should be developed to better predict quantitatively the responses of animals to an increase in the frequency of cars, airplanes, drones, etc. they will face in the next decade.
Phase field dislocation dynamics (PFDD) modeling of non-Schmid behavior in BCC metals informed by atomistic simulations
Body-Centered Cubic (BCC) metals exhibit anomalous mechanical properties such as twinning/anti-twinning and tension/compression asymmetry, which are attributed to asymmetric behavior of screw dislocations. Unlike Face-Centered Cubic (FCC) metals, the Critical Resolved Shear Stress (CRSS) of BCC metals deviates from the Schmid law. Here, we use a mesoscale modeling approach called Phase Field Dislocation Dynamics (PFDD) to understand the critical factors that control this non-Schmid behavior and reproduce atomistic predictions of the CRSS (Peierls stress). All inputs to the PFDD model are obtained from Molecular Statics (MS) simulations. Multiple pathways for modeling the non-Schmid behavior are investigated by incorporating the representative dislocation properties into different energy terms in the PFDD model. One way to understand non-Schmid behavior is to incorporate stress components projected on inclined planes into the external energy term within PFDD. Alternatively, we propose that non-Schmid behavior can also be accounted for by considering the variation of the {110} unstable stacking fault energy and the dislocation core width as a function of the applied tensorial stress field. The CRSS predicted using PFDD modeling is in excellent agreement with MS predictions.
Machine learning models for volumetric swelling in uranium nitride
Machine learning methods are applied to predict the volumetric swelling rate of the nuclear fuel uranium nitride (UN) over various temperatures, irradiation conditions, and power densities. Both kernel-based methods and symbolic regression models for UN swelling are developed and compared with multiple experimental datasets. We find that the UN pellet geometry and dimensions must be taken into account to accurately model swelling behavior. Strong agreement is observed between the developed machine learning models and the data. The predictive error generated by the machine learning models improves on empirical models taken from the literature. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine which properties such as temperature, burnup, and power density, are most important in the swelling process. We find that machine learning can be used to quickly develop accurate swelling models for nuclear materials. In conclusion, the presented results illustrate the potential of machine learning to determine volumetric swelling in UN.
Origin of mean-field behavior in an elastic Ising model
Simple elastic models of spin-crossover compounds are known empirically to exhibit classical critical behavior. Here, we demonstrate how the long-range interactions responsible for this behavior arise naturally upon integrating out mechanical fluctuations of such a model. A mean-field theory applied to the resulting effective Hamiltonian quantitatively accounts for both thermodynamics and kinetics observed in computer simulations, including a barrier to magnetization reversal that grows extensively with system size. For nanocrystals, which break translational symmetry, a straightforward extension of mean-field theory yields similarly accurate results.
A Data-Driven Method for Modeling Creep-Fatigue Stress- Strain Behavior Using Neural ODEs
In this paper, we introduce a data-driven machine learning approach for modeling one-dimensional stress–strain behavior under cyclic loading, utilizing experimental data from the nickel-based Alloy 617. The study employs uniaxial creep–fatigue test data acquired under various loading histories and compares two distinct neural network-based ODE models. The first model, known as the black-box model, comprehensively describes the strain–stress relationship using a Neural ODE equation. To interpret this black-box model, we apply the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems (SINDy) technique, transforming the black-box model into an equation-based model using symbolic regression. The second model, the Neural flow rule model, incorporates Hooke’s Law for the linear elastic component, with the nonlinear part characterized by a Neural ODE. Both models are trained with experimental data to accurately reflect the observed stress–strain behavior. We conduct a detailed comparison with the standard Chaboche model, which includes three back stresses. Our results demonstrate that the neural network-based ODE models precisely capture the experimental creep–fatigue mechanical behavior, exceeding the standard Chaboche model’s accuracy. Furthermore, an interpretable model derived from the black-box neural ODE model through symbolic regression achieves accuracy comparable to the Chaboche model, enhancing its interpretability. The results highlight the potential of neural network-based ODE models to depict complex creep–fatigue behavior, eliminating the necessity for experts to define a specific, material-focused model form.
Comparison of interlaminar damage modeling strategies for hybrid composite/aluminum laminates subjected to low-velocity impact
Low-velocity impact of hybrid metal-composite structures was investigated experimentally and computationally. Composite laminates consisting of 2D woven glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) and carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) were joined with a 6061-T6 aluminum plate using an epoxy adhesive. Two variations of the structure were studied; one consisting of all plies oriented at 0° and one consisting of all plies oriented at 45°. A drop tower was used to impact structures at a range of energies, including energies above and below the threshold at which the aluminum layer was perforated. Numerical simulations were implemented using Sierra/SM, an in-house transient dynamics finite element code developed at Sandia National Laboratories. A Hosford plasticity model was used to describe the response of the aluminum layer. A newly implemented orthotropic continuum damage mechanics (CDM) constitutive model was used to represent the composite laminate. This 3D-CDM model was compared to a cohesive zone model (2D-CDM/CZM) to investigate efficacy of aluminum perforation energy prediction, delamination prediction, and computational cost. Accuracy of each model was evaluated using the experimental results. Each showed good agreement with the tests for both the force and velocity histories, as well as the observed damage mechanisms. The 2D-CDM/CZM model was marginally more accurate in capturing both the composite and aluminum behavior — this model averaged error percentages of -11.2% and 10.8% for residual velocity and peak force, respectively. Meanwhile, the 3D-CDM model predictions yielded average error percentages of -35.5% (velocity) and 22.6% (force). However, the 3D-CDM model generally resulted in a decreased computational cost; the average run time was 14% shorter than the 2D-CDM/CZM model and 3x as many timesteps per hour were computed using the same computational resources. In conclusion, new experimental data on the impact and perforation resistance of metal-composite laminates is presented in addition to numerical predictions of the impact behavior.