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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

THE DISCOVERY OF HD 37605c AND A DISPOSITIVE NULL DETECTION OF TRANSITS OF HD 37605b

We report the radial velocity discovery of a second planetary mass companion to the K0 V star HD 37605, which was already known to host an eccentric, P {approx} 55 days Jovian planet, HD 37605b. This second planet, HD 37605c, has a period of {approx}7.5 years with a low eccentricity and an Msin i of {approx}3.4 M{sub Jup}. Our discovery was made with the nearly 8 years of radial velocity follow-up at the Hobby-Eberly Telescope and Keck Observatory, including observations made as part of the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey effort to provide precise ephemerides to long-period planets for transit follow-up. With a total of 137 radial velocity observations covering almost 8 years, we provide a good orbital solution of the HD 37605 system, and a precise transit ephemeris for HD 37605b. Our dynamic analysis reveals very minimal planet-planet interaction and an insignificant transit time variation. Using the predicted ephemeris, we performed a transit search for HD 37605b with the photometric data taken by the T12 0.8 m Automatic Photoelectric Telescope (APT) and the MOST satellite. Though the APT photometry did not capture the transit window, it characterized the stellar activity of HD 37605, which is consistent of it being an old, inactive star, with a tentative rotation period of 57.67 days. The MOST photometry enabled us to report a dispositive null detection of a non-grazing transit for this planet. Within the predicted transit window, we exclude an edge-on predicted depth of 1.9% at the >>10{sigma} level, and exclude any transit with an impact parameter b > 0.951 at greater than 5{sigma}. We present the BOOTTRAN package for calculating Keplerian orbital parameter uncertainties via bootstrapping. We made a comparison and found consistency between our orbital fit parameters calculated by the RVLIN package and error bars by BOOTTRAN with those produced by a Bayesian analysis using MCMC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Likely Detection of a Two-planet System in a Low-magnification Microlensing Event

We report on the analysis of a microlensing event, OGLE-2014-BLG-1722, that showed two distinct short-term anomalies. The best-fit model to the observed light curves shows that the two anomalies are explained with two planetary mass ratio companions to the primary lens. Although a binary-source model is also able to explain the second anomaly, it is marginally ruled out by 3.1σ. The two-planet model indicates that the first anomaly was caused by planet “b” with a mass ratio of q=(4.5{sub −0.6}{sup +0.7})×10{sup −4} and projected separation in units of the Einstein radius, s = 0.753 ± 0.004. The second anomaly reveals planet “c” with a mass ratio of q{sub 2}=(7.0{sub −1.7}{sup +2.3})×10{sup −4} with Δχ {sup 2} ∼ 170 compared to the single-planet model. Its separation has two degenerated solutions: the separation of planet c is s {sub 2} = 0.84 ± 0.03 and 1.37 ± 0.04 for the close and wide models, respectively. Unfortunately, this event does not show clear finite-source and microlensing parallax effects; thus, we estimated the physical parameters of the lens system from Bayesian analysis. This gives the masses of planets b and c as m{sub b}=56{sub −33}{sup +51} and m{sub c}=85{sub −51}{sup +86} M{sub ⊕}, respectively, and they orbit a late-type star with a mass of M{sub host} =0.40{sub −0.24}{sup +0.36} M{sub ⊙} located at D{sub L}=6.4{sub −1.8}{sup +1.3} kpc from us. The projected distances between the host and planets are r{sub ⊥,b}=1.5±0.6 au for planet b and r{sub ⊥,c}=1.7{sub −0.6}{sup +0.7} au and r{sub ⊥,c}=2.7{sub −1.0}{sup +1.1} au for the close and wide models of planet c. If the two-planet model is true, then this is the third multiple-planet system detected using the microlensing method and the first multiple-planet system detected in low-magnification events, which are dominant in the microlensing survey data. The occurrence rate of multiple cold gas giant systems is estimated using the two such detections and a simple extrapolation of the survey sensitivity of the 6 yr MOA microlensing survey combined with the 4 yr μFUN detection efficiency. It is estimated that 6% ± 2% of stars host two cold giant planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting MOA 2013-BLG-220L: A Solar-type Star with a Cold Super-Jupiter Companion

We present the analysis of high-resolution images of MOA-2013-BLG-220, taken with the Keck adaptive optics system six years after the initial observation, identifying the lens as a solar-type star hosting a super-Jupiter-mass planet. The masses of planets and host stars discovered by microlensing are often not determined from light-curve data, while the star–planet mass ratio and projected separation in units of Einstein ring radius are well measured. High-resolution follow-up observations after the lensing event is complete can resolve the source and lens. This allows direct measurements of flux, and the amplitude and direction of proper motion, giving strong constraints on the system parameters. Due to the high relative proper motion, μ{sub rel,Geo}=12.62±0.11 mas yr{sup −1}, the source and lens were resolved in 2019, with a separation of 77.1 ± 0.5 mas. Thus, we constrain the lens flux to K{sub Keck,lens}=17.92±0.02. By combining constraints from the model and Keck flux, we find the lens mass to be M{sub L}=0.88±0.05 M{sub ⊙} at D{sub L}=6.72±0.59 kpc. With a mass ratio of q=(3.00±0.03)×10{sup −3} the planet’s mass is determined to be M{sub P}=2.74±0.17 M{sub J} at a separation of r{sub ⊥}=3.03±0.27 au. The lens mass is much higher than the prediction made by Bayesian analysis that assumes all stars have an equal probability to host a planet of the measured mass ratio, and suggests that planets with mass ratios of a few times 10{sup −3} are more common orbiting massive stars. This demonstrates the importance of high-resolution follow-up observations for testing theories like these.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Bayesian framework to investigate radiation reaction in strong fields

Recent experiments aiming to measure phenomena predicted by strong-field quantum electrodynamics (SFQED) have done so by colliding relativistic electron beams and high-power lasers. In such experiments, measurements of collision parameters are not always feasible. However, precise knowledge of these parameters is required to accurately test SFQED. Here, we present a novel Bayesian inference procedure that infers collision parameters that could not be measured on-shot. This procedure is applicable to all-optical non-linear Compton scattering experiments investigating radiation reaction. The framework allows multiple diagnostics to be combined self-consistently and facilitates the inclusion of known information pertaining to the collision parameters. Using this Bayesian analysis, the relative validity of the classical, quantum-continuous and quantum-stochastic models of radiation reaction was compared for several test cases, which demonstrates the accuracy and model selection capability of the framework and highlight its robustness if the experimental values of fixed parameters differ from their values in the models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

S -factor and scattering-parameter extractions from ${}^{3}\mathrm{He}+{}^{4}\mathrm{He}{ \rightarrow }^{7}\mathrm{Be}+\gamma $

Previous studies of the reaction ${}^{3}\mathrm{He}+{}^{4}\mathrm{He}\to {}^{7}\mathrm{Be}+\gamma $ have mainly focused on providing the best central value and error bar for the S factor at solar energies. Experimental measurements of this capture reaction at higher energies, the ${}^{3}\mathrm{He}$–${}^{4}\mathrm{He}$ scattering phase shifts, as well as properties of ${}^{7}\mathrm{Be}$ and its excited state, have been used to constrain the theoretical models employed for this purpose. Here we show that much more information than was previously appreciated can be extracted from angle-integrated capture data alone. We use the next-to-leading-order (NLO) amplitude in an effective field theory (EFT) for ${}^{3}\mathrm{He}+{}^{4}\mathrm{He}\to {}^{7}\mathrm{Be}+\gamma $ to perform the extrapolation. At this order the EFT describes the capture process using an s-wave scattering length and effective range, the asymptotic properties of ${}^{7}\mathrm{Be}$ and its excited state, and short-distance contributions to the E1 capture amplitude. We extract the multi-dimensional posterior of all these parameters via a Bayesian analysis that uses capture data below 2 MeV. We find that properties of the ${}^{7}\mathrm{Be}$ ground and excited states are well constrained. The total S factor $S(0)\,={0.577}_{-0.016}^{+0.015}$ keV b, while the branching ratio for excited- to ground-state capture at zero energy, ${Br}(0)={0.406}_{-0.011}^{+0.013}$, both at 68% degree of belief. This S(0) is broadly consistent with other recent evaluations, and agrees with the previously recommended value $S(0)=0.56\pm 0.03\,\,\mathrm{keV}$ b, but has a smaller error bar. We also find significant constraints on ${}^{3}\mathrm{He}$–${}^{4}\mathrm{He}$ scattering parameters, and we obtain constraints on the angular distribution of capture gamma rays, which is important for interpreting experiments. The path forward for this reaction seems to lie with better measurements of the scattering phase shifts and S(E)'s angular dependence away from zero energy, together with better understanding of the asymptotic normalization coefficients of the ${}^{7}$Be bound states' wave functions. Lastly, data on these could further reduce the uncertainty on S(0).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainties due to optical potentials in one-neutron knockout reactions

One-neutron knockout reactions have been widely used to extract information about the single-particle structure of nuclei from the valley of stability to the drip lines. The interpretation of knockout data relies on reaction models, where the uncertainties are typically not accounted for. In this work, we quantify uncertainties of optical potentials used in these reaction models and propagate them, for the first time, to knockout observables using a Bayesian analysis. We study two reactions in the present paper, the first of which involves a loosely bound halo projectile, 11 Be, and the second a tightly bound projectile, 12 C. We first quantify the parametric uncertainties associated with phenomenological optical potentials. Complementing this approach, we also quantify the model uncertainties associated with the chiral forces that can be used to construct microscopic optical potentials. For the phenomenological study, we investigate the impact of the imaginary terms of the optical potential on the breakup and stripping components of the knockout cross sections as well as the impact of the angular range. For the 11 Be case, the theoretical uncertainty from the phenomenological method is on the order of the experimental uncertainty of the knockout observables; however, for the 12 C case, the theoretical uncertainty is significantly larger. Additionally, the widths of the uncertainty bands for the knockout observables obtained for the microscopic study and the phenomenological approach are of similar orders of magnitude. Based on this work we conclude that structure information inferred from the ratio of the knockout cross sections will carry a theoretical uncertainty of at least 20% for halo nuclei and at least 40% for tightly bound nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference of nuclear incompressibility from collective flow in mid-central Au+Au collisions at 400–1500 MeV/nucleon

The incompressibility K of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) is determined through a Bayesian analysis of collective flow data from Au + Au collisions at beam energies $E = 400 -1500$ MeV/nucleon. This analysis utilizes a Gaussian process (GP) emulator applied to the isospin-dependent quantum molecular dynamics (IQMD) model for heavy-ion collisions, both with and without incorporating the momentum dependence of the single-nucleon potentials. Specifically, at the 68% confidence level, using rapidity and transverse velocity dependence of proton elliptic flow data with and without consideration of the momentum dependence, the inferred incompressibility values are $K=188.9^{+2.9}_{-4.5}$ MeV and $256.1^{+8.2}_{-8.7}$ MeV at $E = 400$ MeV/nucleon, respectively. When the transverse momentum dependence of proton-like directed flow data is included, the inferred incompressibility values become $K=222.3^{+9.0}_{-9.9}$ MeV and $K=285.5^{+6.7}_{-7.3}$ MeV, respectively. Furthermore, we found that the value of K derived from observables of proton elliptic flow increases with beam energy. Finally, this indicates that the equation of state (EoS) of nuclear matter hardens at higher densities and temperatures in reactions with higher beam energies.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

Testing T2K’s Bayesian constraints with priors in alternate parameterisations

Bayesian analysis results require a choice of prior distribution. In long-baseline neutrino oscillation physics, the usual parameterisation of the mixing matrix induces a prior that privileges certain neutrino mass and flavour state symmetries. Here we study the effect of privileging alternate symmetries on the results of the T2K experiment. We find that constraints on the level of CP violation (as given by the Jarlskog invariant) are robust under the choices of prior considered in the analysis. On the other hand, the degree of octant preference for the atmospheric angle depends on which symmetry has been privileged.

Bayesian Inference↗
DOE OSTI2011

Interpreting LHC SUSY searches in the phenomenological MSSM

We interpret within the phenomenological MSSM (pMSSM) the results of SUSY searches published by the CMS collaboration based on the first ~1 fb^-1 of data taken during the 2011 LHC run at 7 TeV. The pMSSM is a 19-dimensional parametrization of the MSSM that captures most of its phenomenological features. It encompasses, and goes beyond, a broad range of more constrained SUSY models. Performing a global Bayesian analysis, we obtain posterior probability densities of parameters, masses and derived observables. In contrast to constraints derived for particular SUSY breaking schemes, such as the CMSSM, our results provide more generic conclusions on how the current data constrain the MSSM.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Phenomenological MSSM interpretation of CMS searches in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 and 8 TeV

Searches for new physics by the CMS collaboration are interpreted in the framework of the phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model (pMSSM). The data samples used in this study were collected at $ \sqrt{s}=7 $ and 8 TeV and have integrated luminosities of 5.0 fb$^{−1}$ and 19.5 fb$^{−1}$, respectively. A global Bayesian analysis is performed, incorporating results from a broad range of CMS supersymmetry searches, as well as constraints from other experiments. Because the pMSSM incorporates several well-motivated assumptions that reduce the 120 parameters of the MSSM to just 19 parameters defined at the electroweak scale, it is possible to assess the results of the study in a relatively straightforward way. Approximately half of the model points in a potentially accessible subspace of the pMSSM are excluded, including all pMSSM model points with a gluino mass below 500 GeV, as well as models with a squark mass less than 300 GeV. Models with chargino and neutralino masses below 200 GeV are disfavored, but no mass range of model points can be ruled out based on the analyses considered. The nonexcluded regions in the pMSSM parameter space are characterized in terms of physical processes and key observables, and implications for future searches are discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

On Bayes Equality and Related Issues

To make calculations in the Bayesian analysis, the formalism of which is based on the layering of a probability measure defined on the product of measurable spaces, it is useful to have a summary of the properties of this layering. In this paper we formulate and prove those of them that are used in calculations more often than others. Particularly, we prove Hoeffding-type inequalities using direct elementary techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Revealing the collision energy dependence of η/s in RHIC-BES Au+Au collisions using Bayesian statistics

Here, we investigate the collision energy dependence of η/s in a transport + viscous hydrodynamics hybrid model. A Bayesian analysis is performed on RHIC beam energy scan data for Au + Au collisions at √ s NN = 19.6, 39, and 62.4 GeV. The resulting posterior probability distributions for the model parameters show a preference for a larger value of η/s at 19.6 GeV compared to 62.4 GeV, indicating dependence on baryon chemical potential μ B .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hot QCD phase diagram from holographic Einstein–Maxwell–Dilaton models

In this review, we provide an up-to-date account of quantitative holographic descriptions of the strongly coupled quark-gluon plasma (QGP) produced in heavy-ion collisions, based on the class of gauge-gravity Einstein-Maxwell-Dilaton (EMD) models. Holography is employed to tentatively map the QCD phase diagram at finite temperature onto a dual theory of charged, asymptotically AdS black holes in 5D. With a quantitative focus on the hot QCD phase diagram, the EMD models reviewed are adjusted to describe lattice results for the finite-temperature QCD equation of state, with 2+1 flavors and physical quark masses, at zero chemical potential and vanishing electromagnetic fields. The predictive power of EMD models is tested by quantitatively comparing their predictions for the hot QCD equation of state at nonzero baryon density and the corresponding state-of-the-art lattice QCD results. The shear and bulk viscosities predicted by these EMD models are also compared to the corresponding profiles favored by the latest phenomenological multistage models describing different heavy-ion data. We report preliminary results from a Bayesian analysis which provide systematic evidence that lattice results at finite temperature and zero baryon density strongly constrains the free parameters of EMD models. Remarkably, the set of parameters constrained by lattice results at zero chemical potential produces EMD models in quantitative agreement with lattice QCD results also at finite baryon density. We also review results for equilibrium and transport properties from magnetic EMD models, describing the QGP at finite temperatures and magnetic fields. Lastly, we provide a critical assessment of the main limitations and drawbacks of the holographic models reviewed in the present work, and point out some perspectives we believe are of fundamental importance for future developments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Evidence of recombination and positive selection in cetacean papillomaviruses

Papillomaviruses (PVs) are small DNA viruses that have been associated with increased epithelial proliferation. Over one hundred PV types have been identified in humans; however, only three have been identified in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) to date. Using rolling circle amplification and degenerate PCR, we identified four novel PV genomes of bottlenose dolphins. TtPV4, TtPV5 and TtPV6 were identified in genital lesions while TtPV7 was identified in normal genital mucosa. Bayesian analysis of the full-length L1 genes found that TtPV4 and TtPV7 group within the Upsilonpapillomavirus genus while TtPV5 and TtPV6 group with Omikronpapillomavirus. However, analysis of the E1 gene did not distinguish these genera, implying that these genes may not share a common history, consistent with recombination. Recombination analyses identified several probable events. Signals of positive selection were found mostly in the E1 and E2 genes. Recombination and diversifying selection pressures constitute important driving forces of cetacean PV evolution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetostriction of α-RuCl 3 Flakes in the Zigzag Phase

Motivated by the possibility of enhanced magnetic fluctuations in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 flakes, we study magneto-Raman spectra of exfoliated multilayer α-RuCl 3 in out-of-plane magnetic fields of -6 to 6 T at temperatures of 670 mK to 4 K. While the literature currently suggests that bulk α-RuCl 3 is in an antiferromagnetic zigzag phase with R$\bar3$ symmetry at low temperatures, we do not observe R$\bar3$ symmetry in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 at low temperatures. While we saw no magnetic field-driven transitions, the Raman modes exhibit unexpected stochastic shifts in response to the applied magnetic field that are above the uncertainties inferred from Bayesian analysis. Finally, these stochastic shifts are consistent with the emergence of magnetostrictive interactions in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

The damping of terahertz acoustic modes in aqueous nanoparticle suspensions

In this work, we investigate the possibility of controlling the acoustic damping in a liquid when nanoparticles are suspended in it. To shed light on this topic, we performed Inelastic X-Ray Scattering (IXS) measurements of the terahertz collective dynamics of aqueous suspensions of nanospheres of various materials, size, and relative concentration, either charged or neutral. A Bayesian analysis of measured spectra indicates that the damping of the two acoustic modes of water increases upon nanoparticle immersion. This effect seems particularly pronounced for the longitudinal acoustic mode, which, whenever visible at all, rapidly damps off when increasing the exchanged wavevector. Results also indicate that the observed effect strongly depends on the material the immersed nanoparticles are made of.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK II. CMB mapmaking through Gibbs sampling

We present a Gibbs sampling solution to the mapmaking problem for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements that builds on existing destriping methodology. Gibbs sampling breaks the computationally heavy destriping problem into two separate steps: noise filtering and map binning. Considered as two separate steps, both are computationally much cheaper than solving the combined problem. This provides a huge performance benefit as compared to traditional methods and it allows us, for the first time, to bring the destriping baseline length to a single sample. Here, we applied the Gibbs procedure to simulated Planck 30 GHz data. We find that gaps in the time-ordered data are handled efficiently by filling them in with simulated noise as part of the Gibbs process. The Gibbs procedure yields a chain of map samples, from which we are able to compute the posterior mean as a best-estimate map. The variation in the chain provides information on the correlated residual noise, without the need to construct a full noise covariance matrix. However, if only a single maximum-likelihood frequency map estimate is required, we find that traditional conjugate gradient solvers converge much faster than a Gibbs sampler in terms of the total number of iterations. The conceptual advantages of the Gibbs sampling approach lies in statistically well-defined error propagation and systematic error correction. This methodology thus forms the conceptual basis for the mapmaking algorithm employed in the BEYONDPLANCK framework, which implements the first end-to-end Bayesian analysis pipeline for CMB observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

A spectrometer for high-precision ion temperature and velocity measurements in low-temperature plasmas

We have developed a low-cost spectrometer with simple optical design that achieves unprecedented precision measurements of ion temperature (±0.01 eV) and velocity (±20 m/s). A Fabry-Pérot étalon provides the simultaneous high resolving power and high throughput needed for the light levels available in singly ionized helium and argon plasmas. Reducing the systematic uncertainty in the absolute wavelength calibration needed for the specified velocity precision motivates a Bayesian analysis method called Nested Sampling to address the nontrivial uncertainty in the diffraction order. An initial emission measurement of a singly charged stationary argon plasma yields a temperature of 0.339 ± 0.007 eV and a velocity of -3 ± 4 m/s with a systematic uncertainty of 20 m/s.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗