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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

New giant planet beyond the snow line for an extended MOA exoplanet microlens sample

Characterizing a planet detected by microlensing is hard if the planetary signal is weak or the lens-source relative trajectory is far from caustics. However, statistical analyses of planet demography must include those planets to accurately determine occurrence rates. As part of a systematic modelling effort in the context of a >10-yr retrospective analysis of MOA’s survey observations to build an extended MOA statistical sample, we analyse the light curve of the planetary microlensing event MOA-2014-BLG-472. This event provides weak constraints on the physical parameters of the lens, as a result of a planetary anomaly occurring at low magnification in the light curve. We use a Bayesian analysis to estimate the properties of the planet, based on a refined Galactic model and the assumption that all Milky Way’s stars have an equal planet-hosting probability. We find that a lens consisting of a 1.9(+2.2,−1.2)M(J) giant planet orbiting a 0.31(+0.36,−0.19)Mꙩ host at a projected separation of 0.75±0.24au is consistent with the observations and is most likely, based on the Galactic priors. The lens most probably lies in the Galactic bulge, at 7.2(+0.6,−1.7)kpc from Earth. The accurate measurement of the measured planet-to-host star mass ratio will be included in the next statistical analysis of cold planet demography detected by microlensing.

Clément Ranc↗
DOE OSTI2020

OGLE-2018-BLG-0677Lb: A Super-Earth Near the Galactic Bulge

We report the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-0677. A small feature in the light curve of the event leads to the discovery that the lens is a star–planet system. Although there are two degenerate solutions that could not be distinguished for this event, both lead to a similar planet-host mass ratio. We perform a Bayesian analysis based on a Galactic model to obtain the properties of the system and find that the planet corresponds to a super-Earth/sub-Neptune with a mass of M{sub planet}=3.96{sub −2.66}{sup +5.88}M{sub ⊕}. The host star has a mass of M{sub host}=0.12{sub −0.08}{sup +0.14} M{sub ⊙}. The projected separation for the inner and outer solutions are 0.63{sub −0.17}{sup +0.20} au and 0.72{sub −0.19}{sup +0.23} au respectively. At Δχ{sup 2}=χ{sup 2}(1L1S)−χ{sup 2}(2L1S)=46, this is by far the lowest Δχ {sup 2} for any securely detected microlensing planet to date, a feature that is closely connected to the fact that it is detected primarily via a “dip” rather than a “bump.”.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

AbstractBayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) has emerged as a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios by integrating Bayesian inference with linlog rate laws. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCCs), and concentration control coefficients (CCCs) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. Our findings highlight the strengths and weaknesses of BMCA, guiding its application in metabolic engineering and emphasizing the need for methodological refinements.Author summaryUnderstanding how enzymes control metabolic pathways is crucial for optimizing biomanufacturing and synthetic biology applications. Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising computational method that integrates Bayesian inference with metabolic control analysis to estimate key control parameters, even in cases with limited experimental data. However, the accuracy and limitations of BMCA remain unclear. In this study, we systematically evaluate BMCA using three synthetic metabolic networks to determine how different types of physiological data impact its predictive performance. We find that BMCA requires flux and enzyme concentration data for accurate predictions, while external metabolite concentrations contribute little. Additionally, BMCA fails to predict elasticity values beyond a magnitude of 1.5 and reliably infer allosteric regulation, even when strong regulatory interactions exist. In addition, BMCA does not accurately rank metabolic control points, which may limit its utility in identifying key enzymes in engineered pathways. Our work provides practical insights into when and how BMCA can be applied, guiding future research in metabolic modeling and control analysis.

Shin, Janis (ORCID:0000000216572455)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of non-intuitive metabolic targets with bayesian metabolic control analysis to improve 3-hydroxypropionic acid production in Aspergillus niger

Development of efficient bioconversion processes is limited by the ability to predictably improve metabolic flux. Here we deployed Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis as a platform to integrate multi-omics data with metabolic modeling and evaluated its ability to predict genetic interventions that improve metabolic flux. Global Metabolomics and proteomics data was collected from 17 Aspergillus niger strains engineered to produce the platform biochemical 3-hydroxypropionic acid from which seven actional genetic interventions were predicted from significant flux control coefficients. Of the suggested genetic interventions, two were present within the intuitively designed strains used for training (malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase and pyruvate carboxylase) while five predicted targets were present within non-intuitive areas of the metabolic network including 5-formyltetrahydrofolate deformylase and four mitochondrial enzymes, alcohol dehydrogenase, succinyl-CoA ligase, aspartate aminotransferase, and malate dehydrogenase. Six of the targets were validated in the highest performing 3-HP strain used for multi-omics data generation which contained a prior disruption of the highest scoring target malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase. Predicted directional perturbation of five of the six tested targets significantly improved titer and rate of 3-HP production and two significantly improved yield. The greatest improvements were observed following disruption of the non-intuitive target succinyl-CoA ligase which increased titer by 39% and yield by 29% (to 20.4 g/L 3-HP and 0.31 g 3-HP/g glucose) over the strains used for training. This study demonstrates the utility of Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis and highlights the ability to predict meaningful genetic targets in unexpected areas of metabolism to improve engineered strains for bioconversion.

3-hydroxypropionic acid↗
DOE OSTI2012

X-RAY AND OPTICAL FLUX RATIO ANOMALIES IN QUADRUPLY LENSED QUASARS. II. MAPPING THE DARK MATTER CONTENT IN ELLIPTICAL GALAXIES

We present a microlensing analysis of 61 Chandra observations of 14 quadruply lensed quasars. X-ray flux measurements of the individual quasar images give a clean determination of the microlensing effects in the lensing galaxy and thus offer a direct assessment of the local fraction of stellar matter making up the total integrated mass along the lines of sight through the lensing galaxy. A Bayesian analysis of the ensemble of lensing galaxies gives a most likely local stellar fraction of 7%, with the other 93% in a smooth, dark matter component, at a mean impact parameter R{sub c} of 6.6 kpc from the center of the lensing galaxy. We divide the systems into smaller ensembles based on R{sub c} and find that the most likely local stellar fraction varies qualitatively and quantitatively as expected, decreasing as a function of R{sub c} .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emulating ab initio computations of infinite nucleonic matter

We construct efficient emulators for the computation of the infinite nuclear matter equation of state. These emulators are based on the subspace-projected coupled-cluster method for which we here develop a new algorithm called small-batch voting to eliminate spurious states that might appear when emulating quantum many-body methods based on a non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. The efficiency and accuracy of these emulators facilitate a rigorous statistical analysis within which we explore nuclear matter predictions for > 10 6 different parametrizations of a chiral interaction model with explicit Δ -isobars at next-to-next-to leading order. Constrained by nucleon-nucleon scattering phase shifts and bound-state observables of light nuclei up to He 4 , we use history matching to identify nonimplausible domains for the low-energy coupling constants of the chiral interaction. Within these domains we perform a Bayesian analysis using sampling and importance resampling with different likelihood calibrations and study correlations between interaction parameters, calibration observables in light nuclei, and nuclear matter saturation properties. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

KMT-2017-BLG-0165Lb: A Super-Neptune-mass Planet Orbiting a Sun-like Host Star

We report the discovery of a low-mass-ratio planet (q = 1.3 × 10{sup −4}), i.e., 2.5 times higher than the Neptune/Sun ratio. The planetary system was discovered from the analysis of the KMT-2017-BLG-0165 microlensing event, which has an obvious short-term deviation from the underlying light curve produced by the host of the planet. Although the fit improvement with the microlens parallax effect is relatively low, one component of the parallax vector is strongly constrained from the light curve, making it possible to narrow down the uncertainties of the lens physical properties. A Bayesian analysis yields that the planet has a super-Neptune mass (M{sub 2}=34{sub −12}{sup +15} M{sub ⊕}) orbiting a Sun-like star (M{sub 1}=0.76{sub −0.27}{sup +0.34} M{sub ⊙}) located at 4.5 kpc. The blended light is consistent with these host properties. The projected planet-host separation is a{sub ⊥}=3.45{sub −0.95}{sup +0.98} au, implying that the planet is located outside the snow line of the host, i.e., a {sub sl} ∼ 2.1 au. KMT-2017-BLG-0165Lb is the sixteenth microlensing planet with mass ratio q < 3 × 10{sup −4}. Using the fifteen of these planets with unambiguous mass-ratio measurements, we apply a likelihood analysis to investigate the form of the mass-ratio function in this regime. If we adopt a broken power law for the form of this function, then the break is at q {sub br} ≃ 0.55 × 10{sup −4}, which is much lower than previously estimated. Moreover, the change of the power-law slope, ζ > 3.3, is quite severe. Alternatively, the distribution is also suggestive of a pileup of planets at Neptune-like mass ratios, below which there is a dramatic drop in frequency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cosmological neutrino mass: a frequentist overview in light of DESI

We derive constraints on the neutrino mass using a variety of recent cosmological datasets, including DESI BAO, the full-shape analysis of the DESI matter power spectrum and the one-dimensional power spectrum of the Lyman-α forest (P1D) from eBOSS quasars as well as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The constraints are obtained in the frequentist formalism by constructing profile likelihoods and applying the Feldman-Cousins prescription to compute confidence intervals. This method avoids potential prior and volume effects that may arise in a comparable Bayesian analysis. Parabolic fits to the profiles allow one to distinguish changes in the upper limits from variations in the constraining power σ of the different data combinations. We find that all profiles in the ΛCDM model are cut off by the ∑m ν ≥ 0 bound, meaning that the corresponding parabolas reach their minimum in the unphysical sector. The most stringent 95% C.L. upper limit is obtained by the combination of DESI DR2 BAO, Planck PR4 and CMB lensing at 53 meV, below the minimum of 59 meV set by the normal ordering. The corresponding constraining power σ is 43 meV, which highlights the importance of the cut-off by negative values in the determination of the upper limit. Extending ΛCDM to non-zero curvature and w 0 w a CDM relaxes the constraints past 59 meV again, but only w 0 w a CDM exhibits profiles with a minimum at a positive value. Additionally, we extend the formalism to constrain the lightest neutrino mass. For DESI DR2 BAO, Planck PR4 and CMB lensing, we find confidence limits at 20 and 19 meV for normal and inverted ordering, respectively. Using a combination of DESI DR1 full-shape, BBN and eBOSS Lyman-α P1D, we successfully constrain the neutrino mass independently of the CMB. This combination yields m l ≤ 97 and 98 meV in the normal and inverted orderings, and total neutrino mass ∑m ν ≤ 285 meV (95% C.L.). The addition of DESI full-shape or Lyman-α P1D to CMB and DESI BAO results in small but noticeable improvement of the constraining power of the data. Lyman-α free-streaming measurements especially improve the constraint. Since they are based on eBOSS data, this sets a promising precedent for upcoming DESI data.

Frequentist statistics↗
DOE OSTI2012

An Adaptive Sparse-Grid High-Order Stochastic Collocation Method for Bayesian Inference in Groundwater Reactive Transport Modeling

Although Bayesian analysis has become vital to the quantification of prediction uncertainty in groundwater modeling, its application has been hindered due to the computational cost associated with numerous model executions needed for exploring the posterior probability density function (PPDF) of model parameters. This is particularly the case when the PPDF is estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In this study, we develop a new approach that improves computational efficiency of Bayesian inference by constructing a surrogate system based on an adaptive sparse-grid high-order stochastic collocation (aSG-hSC) method. Unlike previous works using first-order hierarchical basis, we utilize a compactly supported higher-order hierar- chical basis to construct the surrogate system, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of computational simulations required. In addition, we use hierarchical surplus as an error indi- cator to determine adaptive sparse grids. This allows local refinement in the uncertain domain and/or anisotropic detection with respect to the random model parameters, which further improves computational efficiency. Finally, we incorporate a global optimization technique and propose an iterative algorithm for building the surrogate system for the PPDF with multiple significant modes. Once the surrogate system is determined, the PPDF can be evaluated by sampling the surrogate system directly with very little computational cost. The developed method is evaluated first using a simple analytical density function with multiple modes and then using two synthetic groundwater reactive transport models. The groundwater models represent different levels of complexity; the first example involves coupled linear reactions and the second example simulates nonlinear ura- nium surface complexation. The results show that the aSG-hSC is an effective and efficient tool for Bayesian inference in groundwater modeling in comparison with conventional MCMC sim- ulations. The computational efficiency is expected to be more beneficial to more computational expensive groundwater problems.

Zhang, Guannan↗
DOE OSTI2016

A note on the birefringence angle estimation in CMB data analysis

Parity violating physics beyond the standard model of particle physics induces a rotation of the linear polarization of photons. This effect, also known as cosmological birefringence (CB), can be tested with the observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies which are linearly polarized at the level of 5–10%. In particular CB produces non-null CMB cross correlations between temperature and B mode-polarization, and between E- and B-mode polarization. Here we study the properties of the so called D-estimators, often used to constrain such an effect. After deriving the framework of both frequentist and Bayesian analysis, we discuss the interplay between birefringence and weak-lensing, which, albeit parity conserving, modifies pre-existing TB and EB cross correlation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

A statistical analysis of seeds and other high-contrast exoplanet surveys: massive planets or low-mass brown dwarfs?

We conduct a statistical analysis of a combined sample of direct imaging data, totalling nearly 250 stars. The stars cover a wide range of ages and spectral types, and include five detections (κ And b, two ∼60 M {sub J} brown dwarf companions in the Pleiades, PZ Tel B, and CD–35 2722B). For some analyses we add a currently unpublished set of SEEDS observations, including the detections GJ 504b and GJ 758B. We conduct a uniform, Bayesian analysis of all stellar ages using both membership in a kinematic moving group and activity/rotation age indicators. We then present a new statistical method for computing the likelihood of a substellar distribution function. By performing most of the integrals analytically, we achieve an enormous speedup over brute-force Monte Carlo. We use this method to place upper limits on the maximum semimajor axis of the distribution function derived from radial-velocity planets, finding model-dependent values of ∼30-100 AU. Finally, we model the entire substellar sample, from massive brown dwarfs to a theoretically motivated cutoff at ∼5 M {sub J}, with a single power-law distribution. We find that p(M, a)∝M {sup –0.65} {sup ±} {sup 0.60} a {sup –0.85} {sup ±} {sup 0.39} (1σ errors) provides an adequate fit to our data, with 1.0%-3.1% (68% confidence) of stars hosting 5-70 M {sub J} companions between 10 and 100 AU. This suggests that many of the directly imaged exoplanets known, including most (if not all) of the low-mass companions in our sample, formed by fragmentation in a cloud or disk, and represent the low-mass tail of the brown dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A thought experiment to evaluate a proposed data analysis method

A statistical analysis was recently presented at a DOE review in reference to a particular problem. Here we attempt to capture the essence of this problem with a simple “toy” analog and demonstrate the incorrectness of the presented J figure of merit algorithm. We show that the incorrect usage of J gives PDFs that have erroneous long tails and significantly overestimate the rms deviations relative to those obtained by exact analytic methods. Conversely, a numerical Bayesian analysis gives the correct result.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deep Exploration of ϵ Eridani with Keck Ms-band Vortex Coronagraphy and Radial Velocities: Mass and Orbital Parameters of the Giant Exoplanet

We present the most sensitive direct imaging and radial velocity (RV) exploration of ϵ Eridani to date. ϵ Eridani is an adolescent planetary system, reminiscent of the early solar system. It is surrounded by a prominent and complex debris disk that is likely stirred by one or several gas giant exoplanets. The discovery of the RV signature of a giant exoplanet was announced 15 yr ago, but has met with scrutiny due to possible confusion with stellar noise. We confirm the planet with a new compilation and analysis of precise RV data spanning 30 yr, and combine it with upper limits from our direct imaging search, the most sensitive ever performed. The deep images were taken in the Ms band (4.7 μm) with the vortex coronagraph recently installed in W.M. Keck Observatory’s infrared camera NIRC2, which opens a sensitive window for planet searches around nearby adolescent systems. The RV data and direct imaging upper limit maps were combined in an innovative joint Bayesian analysis, providing new constraints on the mass and orbital parameters of the elusive planet. ϵ Eridani b has a mass of 0.78{sub −0.12}{sup +0.38} M {sub Jup} and is orbiting ϵ Eridani at about 3.48 ± 0.02 au with a period of 7.37 ± 0.07 yr. The eccentricity of ϵ Eridani b’s orbit is 0.07{sub −0.05}{sup +0.06}, an order of magnitude smaller than early estimates and consistent with a circular orbit. We discuss our findings from the standpoint of planet–disk interactions and prospects for future detection and characterization with the James Webb Space Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

TOI-220 b : a warm sub-Neptune discovered by TESS

ABSTRACT In this paper, we report the discovery of TOI-220 b, a new sub-Neptune detected by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and confirmed by radial velocity follow-up observations with the HARPS spectrograph. Based on the combined analysis of TESS transit photometry and high precision radial velocity measurements, we estimate a planetary mass of 13.8 ± 1.0 M⊕ and radius of 3.03 ± 0.15 R⊕, implying a bulk density of 2.73 ± 0.47 $\rm {g\,cm}^{-3}$. TOI-220 b orbits a relative bright (V= 10.4) and old (10.1 ± 1.4 Gyr) K dwarf star with a period of ∼10.69 d. Thus, TOI-220 b is a new warm sub-Neptune with very precise mass and radius determinations. A Bayesian analysis of the TOI-220 b internal structure indicates that due to the strong irradiation it receives, the low density of this planet could be explained with a steam atmosphere in radiative–convective equilibrium and a supercritical water layer on top of a differentiated interior made of a silicate mantle and a small iron core.

Hoyer, S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Bayesian Blocks: A New Method to Analyze Photon Counting Data

A Bayesian analysis of photon-counting data leads to a new time-domain algorithm for detecting localized structures (bursts), revealing pulse shapes, and generally characterizing intensity variations. The raw counting data -- time-tag events (TTE), time-to-spill (TTS) data, or binned counts -- is converted to a maximum likelihood segmentation of the observation into time intervals during which the photon arrival rate is perceptibly constant -- i.e. has a fixed intensity without statistically significant variations. The resulting structures, Bayesian Blocks, can be thought of as bins with arbitrary spacing determined by the data. The method itself sets no lower limit to the time scale on which variability can be detected. We have applied the method to RXTE data on Cyg X-1, yielding information on this source's short-time-scale variability.

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗
DOE OSTI2016

DISCOVERY OF A GAS GIANT PLANET IN MICROLENSING EVENT OGLE-2014-BLG-1760

We present the analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2014-BLG-1760, which shows a strong light-curve signal due to the presence of a Jupiter mass ratio planet. One unusual feature of this event is that the source star is quite blue, with V-I=1.48±0.08. This is marginally consistent with a source star in the Galactic bulge, but it could possibly indicate a young source star on the far side of the disk. Assuming a bulge source, we perform a Bayesian analysis assuming a standard Galactic model, and this indicates that the planetary system resides in or near the Galactic bulge at D{sub L}=6.9±1.1 kpc. It also indicates a host-star mass of M{sub &middot;}=0.51{sub -0.28}{sup +0.44}M{sub ⊙}, a planet mass of m{sub p}=0.56{sub -0.26}{sup +0.34}M{sub J}, and a projected star–planet separation of a{sub ⊥}=1.75{sub -0.33}{sup +0.34} au. The lens–source relative proper motion is μ{sub rel}=6.5±1.1 mas yr{sup -1}. The lens (and stellar host star) is estimated to be very faint compared to the source star, so it is most likely that it can be detected only when the lens and source stars start to separate. Due to the relatively high relative proper motion, the lens and source will be resolved to about ~46 mas in 6–8 yr after the peak magnification. So, by 2020–2022, we can hope to detect the lens star with deep, high-resolution images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Discovery of a Gas Giant Planet in Microlensing Event Ogle-2014-BLG-1760

We present the analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2014-BLG-1760, which shows a strong light-curve signal due to the presence of a Jupiter mass ratio planet. One unusual feature of this event is that the source star is quite blue, with V-I = 1.48 +/- 0.08. This is marginally consistent with a source star in the Galactic bulge, but it could possibly indicate a young source star on the far side of the disk. Assuming a bulge source, we perform a Bayesian analysis assuming a standard Galactic model, and this indicates that the planetary system resides in or near the Galactic bulge at D(sub L) = 6.9 +/- 1.1 kpc. It also indicates a host-star mass of M(sub *) = 0.51(sup + 0.44/sub -0.28) M(sub theta), a planet mass of m(sub p ) = 0.56(sup +0.34/sub -0.26) M(sub J), and a projected star-planet separation of a(perpendicular) = 1.75(sup +0.33/sub -0.34) au. The lens-source relative proper motion is micro(sub rel) = 6.5 +/- 1.1mas per yr. The lens (and stellar host star) is estimated to be very faint compared to the source star, so it is most likely that it can be detected only when the lens and source stars start to separate. Due to the relatively high relative proper motion, the lens and source will be resolved to about approximately 46 mas in 6-8 yr after the peak magnification. So, by 2020-2022, we can hope to detect the lens star with deep, high-resolution images.

Galactic bulge↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty analysis of signal deconvolution using a measured instrument response function

A common analysis procedure minimizes the ln-likelihood that a set of experimental observables matches a parameterized model of the observation. The model includes a description of the underlying physical process as well as the instrument response function (IRF). Here, we investigate the National Ignition Facility (NIF) neutron time-of-flight (nTOF) spectrometers, the IRF is constructed from measurements and models. IRF measurements have a finite precision that can make significant contributions to the uncertainty estimate of the physical model’s parameters. Finally, we apply a Bayesian analysis to properly account for IRF uncertainties in calculating the ln-likelihood function used to find the optimum physical parameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗