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Training dataset for the Generic Aquifer Component of NRAP-Open-IAM. Consists of the results of 62,500 STOMP-CO2 simulations of brine and CO2 leakage of varying rates and salinity into aquifers of varying thickness, depth, porosity, permeability, anisotropy and initial salinity. Described in report https://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-32590.pdf
We present a joint cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) and the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000) in a collaborative effort between the two survey teams. We find consistent cosmological parameter constraints between DES Y3 and KiDS-1000 which, when combined in a joint-survey analysis, constrain the parameter $S_8 = \sigma_8 \sqrt{\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3}$ with a mean value of $0.790^{+0.018}_{-0.014}$. The mean marginal is lower than the maximum a posteriori estimate, $S_8=0.801$, owing to skewness in the marginal distribution and projection effects in the multi-dimensional parameter space. Our results are consistent with $S_8$ constraints from observations of the cosmic microwave background by Planck, with agreement at the $1.7\sigma$ level. We use a Hybrid analysis pipeline, defined from a mock survey study quantifying the impact of the different analysis choices originally adopted by each survey team. We review intrinsic alignment models, baryon feedback mitigation strategies, priors, samplers and models of the non-linear matter power spectrum.
We present a catalog of 689 galaxy cluster candidates detected at significance ξ > 4 via their thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect signature in 95 and 150 GHz data from the 500-square-degree SPTpol survey. We use optical and infrared data from the Dark Energy Camera and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and Spitzer satellites, to confirm 544 of these candidates as clusters with ~ 94% purity. The sample has an approximately redshift-independent mass threshold at redshift z > 0.25. The confirmed sample spans 1.5 × 10 14 < M 500 c < 9 × 10 14 M ⊙ /h 70 and 0.03 < z ≲ 1.6 in mass and redshift, respectively, with a median mass of 2.5×10 14 M ⊙ /h 70 and median redshift z = 0.7; 21% of the confirmed clusters are at z > 1. We use external radio data from the Sydney University Molonglo Sky Survey (SUMSS) to estimate contamination to the SZ signal from synchrotron sources. The contamination reduces the recovered ξ by a median value of 0.032, or ~ 0.8% of the ξ = 4 threshold value, and ~ 7% of candidates have a predicted contamination greater than Δξ = 1. With the exception of a small number of systems (< 1%), an analysis of clusters detected in single-frequency 95 and 150 GHz data shows no significant contamination of the SZ signal by emission from dusty or synchrotron sources. This cluster sample, representing the deepest SZ-selected cluster sample to date, will be a key component in upcoming astrophysical and cosmological analyses of clusters. In addition to the cluster catalog, we also release the millimeter-wave maps and associated data products used to produce this sample. These maps have depths of 5.3 (11.7) µK CMB -arcmin at 150 (95) GHz and an effective angular resolution of 1. '2 (1. '7). The SPTpol products are available at https:// pole.uchicago.edu/public/data/sptpol_500d_clusters/index.html, and the NASA LAMBDA website. An interactive sky server with the SPTpol maps and Dark Energy Survey data release 2 images is also available at NCSA https://skyviewer.ncsa.illinois.edu.
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was contracted by Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC to provide the technical basis for estimating radionuclide release from the engineered portion of the disposal facility (e.g., source term). Vitrifying the low-activity waste at Hanford is expected to generate over 1.6 x 10 5 m 3 of glass (Certa and Wells 2010). The volume of immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) at Hanford is the largest in the DOE complex and is one of the largest inventories (approximately 8.9 x 10 14 Bq total activity) of long-lived radionuclides, principally 99 Tc (t 1/2 = 2.1 x 10 5 ), planned for disposal in a low-level waste (LLW) facility. Before the ILAW can be disposed, DOE must conduct a performance assessment (PA) for the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF) that describes the long-term impacts of the disposal facility on public health and environmental resources. As part of the ILAW glass testing program PNNL is implementing a strategy, consisting of experimentation and modeling, in order to provide the technical basis for estimating radionuclide release from the glass waste form in support of future IDF PAs. The purpose of this report is to summarize the progress made in fiscal year (FY) 2011 toward implementing the strategy with the goal of developing an understanding of the long-term corrosion behavior of low-activity waste glasses.
The U.S. Department of Energy is leading the development of CCS through collaborative projects and programs to not only develop and demonstrate the technology but to also quantify the risks and provide tools that site operators can use to develop a site-specific understanding of their risk to enable successful project operations. This report summarizes results and findings from the application of risk-assessment tools to an industrial-scale Geologic Carbon Storage (GCS) project. Specifically, we applied the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s (NRAP) Open Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) and State of Stress Assessment Tool (SOSAT) to two candidate sites being considered for storage by the Integrated Midcontinent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub (IMSCS-Hub) project team. These sites, Sleepy Hollow Field in Nebraska and Patterson Field in Kansas, have historical oil and gas production and thus are attractive candidates to store the 50 million metric tons (Mt), which is the CarbonSAFE objective. Because these sites have historical operations, they have a significant number of existing wells that pose a risk for well leakage. Additionally, the storage formations will undergo significant pore pressure perturbation (i.e., increase due to CO 2 injection). Hence, we have selected the two NRAP tools best suited to study the risks associated with well leakage and geomechanical risks. The objective of the study was not only to assess the risk at the site, but to also improve the NRAP tools through application using real site data on an ongoing project.
Since extending the Autodetector to a convolutional neural network (CNN) machine learning classifier model, an effort has been executed to demonstrate its ability to distinguish not only a switching DC-DC converter as high voltage, but identify the make and model of a converter on which it was trained. This was achieved by collecting data in a noisy environment, pre-processing the time domain data to obtain composite images using a method that improves upon that of the prior research, then validating a trained CNN model to an accuracy of 100% on a selected candidate converter.
Tools are now available that enable measurement electromagnetic radiation (EMR) from active electronics in an item. This radiation may be intended WIFI or cellular network links, for example or unintended such as the switching noise generated by DC-to-DC converters. It would be extremely valuable to have the capability to discriminate between the low-voltage DC-to-DC converters or other digital noise prevalent in most modern electronics, versus the high-voltage DC-to-DC converters used in utility firesets. Previous work performed under a Sandia Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project on Charge State Detection using a deep neural network has been continued in this effort. A state-of-the-art supervised machine learning algorithm has not only been extended to discriminate between low and high voltage converters but has been validated in determining a converters make and model.
In this report we take stratigraphic data from the ISGS-led Macon County Phase 2 CarbonSAFE’s proposed site in Christian County, Illinois, and conduct reservoir simulations to generate pressure and CO 2 saturation plume data as a function of time. We then use this plume data along with the stratigraphic data as inputs to the NRAP Open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to evaluate project risks. For this report we focus on the probabilistic risk associated with hypothetical leakage of CO 2 and brine along the injection well and one monitoring well. We also study the resulting impact to two overlying aquifers, which could be used to inform monitoring technology selection.
The L-Bar former uranium milling site was remediated and closed per regulations and is now under the long-term stewardship of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Legacy Management (DOE/LM). Since assuming stewardship in 2004, DOE/LM has observed erosion and sedimentation processes at the L-Bar Site that will challenge meeting the design closure criteria in the long term, and therefore erosion control structures were installed in several areas. Portions of these structures were subsequently damaged by summer convective storm events and they are being redesigned. At the request of DOE/LM, Desert Research Institute (DRI) reviewed the proposed redesign plans of the erosion control structures. The purpose of this review is to support DOE/LM decisions regarding mitigation of ongoing erosion processes, including assessing possible repair of the existing erosion control structures, as well as plan for effective long-term site management. This design review is performed in reference to the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act (UMTRCA) standards contained in 40 CFR 192.02 that require containment of residual radioactive material be effective for up to 1,000 years (if achievable, but certainly for 200 years), limit radon release, protect groundwater, and minimize future maintenance. The erosion control structures under review are not subject to the UMTRCA standard directly, but they contribute to the performance of the overall containment system by virtue of their relationship with the large diversion channels bounding the disposal cell. The 11 design drawings included in “Erosion Control Alternatives Analysis, L-Bar, New Mexico, Disposal Site, LTS-111-0043-08-002,” dated January 11, 2019, and listed in Appendix A, and supporting calculations in Weston (2019) are the focus of the review. Additionally, DOE/LM provided supporting data such as a 2018 photogrammetry-based digital elevation model of the site, precipitation records collected from an on-site weather station, and sedimentation records collected at an on-site basin. This assessment includes review of the proposed design to mitigate current site conditions but also addresses site changes between the initial erosion assessment report (Miller et al., 2012) and current conditions. The analysis is at a predesign engineering level and does not include development of hydraulic or sediment transport models. Site precipitation data are included in Miller et al. (2012). The natural conditions of the site, the design of site diversion systems, observed erosion at the site, and predesign engineering analysis are used to develop a holistic view of the challenges to L-Bar Site stability and possible responsive actions.
This report documents a risk assessment of CO 2 containment loss and induced shear failure due to geologic carbon storage at the Wabash CarbonSAFE site. The operator, Wabash Valley Resources, has proposed adapting the onsite integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) facilities to produce hydrogen and injecting the byproduct CO 2 stream into the subsurface Potosi dolomite formation. The purpose of this study is to assess (1) CO 2 sequestration performance relative to the CarbonSAFE goals of storing 50 Mt over 30 years, (2) the risk of containment loss due to leakage along a wellbore and into an overlying aquifer, and (3) the state of stress and risk of reactivating existing fractures. This study relied upon the initial site characterization work performed by the Illinois State Geologic Survey (ISGS) along with analogue data collected from other carbon sequestration projects in the region.
This report describes the development and testing of three component models for NRAP-Open-IAM, the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source integrated assessment model. The FutureGen2 Lookup Table Reservoir component model is based on interpolation of data from a set of lookup tables. The lookup tables contain pressures and saturations predicted by multiphase flow simulations performed with a reservoir simulator. The FutureGen2 Above Zone Monitoring Interval (AZMI) component is a surrogate model that can be used to estimate the impact that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and brine leaks from the CO 2 storage reservoir at the FutureGen 2.0 site might have had on overlying aquifers or monitoring units were a leak to occur. The model estimates the size of “impact plumes” according to five metrics: pH, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), pressure, dissolved CO 2 and temperature. The FutureGen2 Aquifer component is similar, but is limited to four metrics: pH, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), pressure, and dissolved CO 2 . The input parameters for each model are the same, but the Aquifer component is applicable to depths between 100 m and 700 m and the AZMI component is applicable from depths between 700 m and 1050 m.
The Open Wellbore component of NRAP-Open-IAM is applicable to the calculation of Area of Review at a carbon storage site and fast estimation of dense gas dispersion from multiple continuous CO 2 surface leakage sources for risk assessment. The Open Wellbore Component of NRAP-Open-IAM is a lookup table model based on the drift-flux approach. The National Research Assessment Partnership’s second-generation integrated assessment model, NRAP-Open-IAM, is open-source software written in Python for use in performance and quantitative risk assessment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems. The look-up table for open well leakage is an updated version the previous model which provides finer resolution of reservoir depth and more accurate fluid properties than the previous open well look-up table, especially in calculating the gas (CO 2 -rich) phase properties. The component model input parameters include the reservoir transmissivity, aquifer transmissivity, brine salinity, well radius, and well top and bottom depths. The reservoir transmissivity and brine salinity were set to values consistent with the reservoir component, and the well top and bottom depths varied with location. The possible outputs from the Open Wellbore component are leakage rates of CO 2 and brine to either an aquifer or atmosphere, depending on the depth of the well top. Several python test scripts are presented that demonstrate that the Open Wellbore component works correctly. Use of the open wellbore model in NRAP-Open-IAM may result in a large CO 2 leakage rates, comparable to the leakage rates of CO 2 blow out.
Geologic carbon storage is one of the promising strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing the emission of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a systems-level stochastic analysis tool called the open source integrated assessment model, NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to estimate and manage the risk of containment loss at a geological carbon sequestration site. NRAP-Open-IAM contains several wellbore leakage model components that estimate the fluid leak rate that may occur through compromised legacy wells due to the increase in pressure resulting from CO 2 injection activities. Coupled to a reservoir component model, these components estimate the leakage of CO 2 and/or brine from a storage reservoir to overlying aquifer layers and the atmosphere through legacy wells. This report presents the theoretical framework and quality testing of the multisegmented wellbore reduced-order model. The model allows for segmenting of the legacy wells passing through the overlying stratigraphy into several intervals to simulate a site’s specific stratigraphic and hydrogeologic properties. For quality assurance, the analytical model is validated against numerical reservoir flow simulations for single and multiple aquifer(s) models. The results indicate that the model accurately predicts the transport of two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) through the well over time. A detailed description of the model helps users to understand the model and provides a basis for future improvements.
The Generic Aquifer Model calculates the concentrations of dissolved salt and dissolved CO 2 surrounding a leaking legacy well. The Generic Aquifer model can also estimate the size of an “impact plume” where concentration changes exceed user-specified thresholds. The model is a component of NRAP-Open-IAM, an open-source Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to perform risk assessment for geologic CO 2 storage. The input parameters were selected to cover a wide range of groundwater aquifers and leakage rates. The generic aquifer model was developed using a generative adversarial deep learning network, trained using a large synthetic dataset of STOMP multiphase flow simulations. The deep learning model predictions of dissolved salt and dissolved CO 2 in the aquifer compare well to the original STOMP simulation results. The extent of aquifer impacted by leaking CO 2 or brine is calculated using a user-defined mass fraction threshold. The aquifer impact volumes calculated based on STOMP simulation results compare well to those calculated based on the deep learning model. In a provided python script, gridded observation results from the generic aquifer component of NRAP-Open-IAM are converted to HDF5 format files for monitoring design with the DREAM code.
Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) is a key technology for reducing global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Over the last decade, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in understanding the science base, developing practical implementation methods, and demonstrating secure GCS technologies to mitigate the environmental impacts associated with the atmospheric release of CO 2 . As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership, a systems-level risk assessment tool, called the NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to conduct risk assessment and enable safe operations at a GCS site. The current NRAP-Open-IAM contains a simple reservoir model component that calculates the evolution of CO 2 saturation and fluid pressure in a storage reservoir during CO 2 injection operations. This report presents the development and testing of a new analytical reservoir reduced-order model (ROM), which is extended from an existing semi-analytical model for estimation of CO 2 and brine leakage along legacy wells, and enhances the capability of the NRAP-Open-IAM to simulate more types of reservoir conditions. The developed model is validated against three reference studies, and the results indicate that the new ROM predicts the behavior of the two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) well and is applicable to different reservoir simulation boundary conditions (i.e., constant pressure boundary and infinite-acting boundary) without a priori user specification of the boundary type. Sensitivity analysis for a set of model parameters is performed using 4,000 synthetic cases prepared via a fully automated process and using machine-learning-based feature selection. The stochastic analysis identifies gravitational number (i.e., ratio of gravitational forces to viscous force) and distance between the injection well and observation location as the most impactful parameters for matching the pressure and CO 2 saturation, respectively, between the numerical simulations and the ROM. This report details the possible ROM uncertainties and serves as a guide for users to understand the use and limitations of this ROM. The code implementation of the model will be released as a module within the NRAP-Open-IAM.
This report identifies computational tools useful for addressing aspects of the dedicated carbon storage (Class VI) well permit application under the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program. The survey was conducted by researchers of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Research and Innovation Center in collaboration with representatives of the U.S. EPA, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and the four Regional Initiatives to Accelerate Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership of the Western United States (CUSP), Plains CO 2 Reduction Partnership Initiative to Accelerate Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Deployment (PCOR Partnership), Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI), and the Southeast Regional Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership (SECARB-USA). A total of 59 tools were identified through the elicitation for this report. It is intended to serve as a reference that can be used by geologic carbon storage stakeholders to identify computational tools that may be used to develop Class VI permit applications.
This report presents recommendations for quantitatively assessing and managing leakage risk and effective containment assurance at geologic carbon storage (GCS) sites, amidst uncertainty in site characteristics and performance. These recommended practices are a product of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP)—a multi-year collaborative research effort of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These recommended practices are organized as a set of conceptual workflows that correspond with the stages of the GCS project lifecycle. They consider aspects of site characterization, quantification of potential leakage, assessing the spatial extent of potential environmental impacts, optimizing monitoring design for detection of potential leakage, evaluation of concordance between monitored and forecasted reservoir response, assessing conformance with expected/accepted performance, and determination of the timeline over which risk of impactful leakage can be expected to abate. These conceptual workflows are intended to aid stakeholders in making risk management decisions at GCS sites and to support development of sound, risk-based justifications for characterizing the subsurface, defining area of potential leakage impact, designing site monitoring plans, selecting leakage risk management/mitigation alternatives, and estimating site closure timelines.
This Technical Note presents a catalog of calibrated reference stars that was generated by the Forward Calibration Method (FGCM) pipeline (arXiv:1706.01542) as part of the FGCM photometric calibration of the full Dark Energy Survey (DES) 6-Year data set (Y6). This catalog provides DES grizY magnitudes for 17 million stars with i-band magnitudes mostly in the range 16 < i < 21 spread over the full DES footprint covering 5000 square degrees over the Southern Galactic Cap at galactic latitudes b < -20 degrees (plus a few outlying fields disconnected from the main survey footprint). These stars are calibrated to a uniformity of better than 1.8 milli-mag (0.18%) RMS over the survey area. The absolute calibration of the catalog is computed with reference to the STISNIC.007 spectrum of the Hubble Space Telescope CalSpec standard star C26202; including systematic errors, the absolute flux system is known at the approximately 1% level. As such, these stars provide a useful reference catalog for calibrating grizY-band or grizY-like band photometry in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly for observations within the DES footprint.