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NASA NTRS2003

Short-term adaptation of the VOR: non-retinal-slip error signals and saccade substitution

We studied short-term (30 min) adaptation of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) in five normal humans using a "position error" stimulus without retinal image motion. Both before and after adaptation a velocity gain (peak slow-phase eye velocity/peak head velocity) and a position gain (total eye movement during chair rotation/amplitude of chair motion) were measured in darkness using search coils. The vestibular stimulus was a brief ( approximately 700 ms), 15 degrees chair rotation in darkness (peak velocity 43 degrees /s). To elicit adaptation, a straight-ahead fixation target disappeared during chair movement and when the chair stopped the target reappeared at a new location in front of the subject for gain-decrease (x0) adaptation, or 10 degrees opposite to chair motion for gain-increase (x1.67) adaptation. This position-error stimulus was effective at inducing VOR adaptation, though for gain-increase adaptation the primary strategy was to substitute augmenting saccades during rotation while for gain-decrease adaptation both corrective saccades and a decrease in slow-phase velocity occurred. Finally, the presence of the position-error signal alone, at the end of head rotation, without any attempt to fix upon it, was not sufficient to induce adaptation. Adaptation did occur, however, if the subject did make a saccade to the target after head rotation, or even if the subject paid attention to the new location of the target without actually looking at it.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2001

Patterns of transfer of adaptation among body segments

Two experiments were conducted in order to determine the patterns of transfer of visuomotor adaptation between arm and head pointing. An altered gain of display of pointing movements was used to induce a conflict between visual and somatosensory representations. Two subject groups participated in Experiment 1: group 1 adapted shoulder pointing movements, and group 2 adapted wrist pointing movements to a 0.5 gain of display. Following the adaptation regimen, subjects performed a transfer test in which the shoulder group performed wrist movements and the wrist group performed shoulder movements. The results demonstrated that both groups displayed typical adaptation curves, initially undershooting the target followed by a return to baseline performance. Transfer tests revealed that both groups had high transfer of the acquired adaptation to the other joint. Experiment 2 followed a similar design except that group 1 adapted head pointing movements and group 2 adapted arm pointing movements. The arm adaptation had high transfer to head pointing while the head adaptation had very little transfer to arm pointing. These results imply that, while the arm segments may share a common target representation for goal-directed actions, individual but functionally dependent target representations may exist for the control of head and arm movements.

NASA Center JSC↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-D-BRB-05: Quantum Learning for Knowledge-Based Response-Adaptive Radiotherapy

Purpose: There is tremendous excitement in radiotherapy about applying data-driven methods to develop personalized clinical decisions for real-time response-based adaptation. However, classical statistical learning methods lack in terms of efficiency and ability to predict outcomes under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information. Therefore, we are investigating physics-inspired machine learning approaches by utilizing quantum principles for developing a robust framework to dynamically adapt treatments to individual patient’s characteristics and optimize outcomes. Methods: We studied 88 liver SBRT patients with 35 on non-adaptive and 53 on adaptive protocols. Adaptation was based on liver function using a split-course of 3+2 fractions with a month break. The radiotherapy environment was modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP) of baseline and one month into treatment states. The patient environment was modeled by a 5-variable state represented by patient’s clinical and dosimetric covariates. For comparison of classical and quantum learning methods, decision-making to adapt at one month was considered. The MDP objective was defined by the complication-free tumor control (P{sup +}=TCPx(1-NTCP)). A simple regression model represented state-action mapping. Single bit in classical MDP and a qubit of 2-superimposed states in quantum MDP represented the decision actions. Classical decision selection was done using reinforcement Q-learning and quantum searching was performed using Grover’s algorithm, which applies uniform superposition over possible states and yields quadratic speed-up. Results: Classical/quantum MDPs suggested adaptation (probability amplitude ≥0.5) 79% of the time for splitcourses and 100% for continuous-courses. However, the classical MDP had an average adaptation probability of 0.5±0.22 while the quantum algorithm reached 0.76±0.28. In cases where adaptation failed, classical MDP yielded 0.31±0.26 average amplitude while the quantum approach averaged a more optimistic 0.57±0.4, but with high phase fluctuations. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that quantum machine learning approaches provide a feasible and promising framework for real-time and sequential clinical decision-making in adaptive radiotherapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2008

Closing the Certification Gaps in Adaptive Flight Control Software

Over the last five decades, extensive research has been performed to design and develop adaptive control systems for aerospace systems and other applications where the capability to change controller behavior at different operating conditions is highly desirable. Although adaptive flight control has been partially implemented through the use of gain-scheduled control, truly adaptive control systems using learning algorithms and on-line system identification methods have not seen commercial deployment. The reason is that the certification process for adaptive flight control software for use in national air space has not yet been decided. The purpose of this paper is to examine the gaps between the state-of-the-art methodologies used to certify conventional (i.e., non-adaptive) flight control system software and what will likely to be needed to satisfy FAA airworthiness requirements. These gaps include the lack of a certification plan or process guide, the need to develop verification and validation tools and methodologies to analyze adaptive controller stability and convergence, as well as the development of metrics to evaluate adaptive controller performance at off-nominal flight conditions. This paper presents the major certification gap areas, a description of the current state of the verification methodologies, and what further research efforts will likely be needed to close the gaps remaining in current certification practices. It is envisioned that closing the gap will require certain advances in simulation methods, comprehensive methods to determine learning algorithm stability and convergence rates, the development of performance metrics for adaptive controllers, the application of formal software assurance methods, the application of on-line software monitoring tools for adaptive controller health assessment, and the development of a certification case for adaptive system safety of flight.

Jacklin, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Patterns of Transfer of Adaptation Among Body Segments

Two experiments were conducted in order to determine the patterns of transfer of visuomotor adaptation between arm and head pointing. An altered gain of display of pointing movements was used to induce a conflict between visual and somatosensory representations. Two subject groups participated in Experiment One: group 1 adapted shoulder pointing movements, and group 2 adapted wrist pointing movements to a 0.5 gain of display. Following the adaptation regimen, subjects performed a transfer test in which the shoulder group performed wrist movements and the wrist group performed shoulder movements. The results demonstrated that both groups displayed typical adaptation curves, initially undershooting the target followed by a return to baseline performance. Transfer tests revealed that both groups had high transfer of the acquired adaptation to the other joint. Experiment Two followed a similar design except that group 1 adapted head pointing movements and group 2 adapted arm pointing movements. The arm adaptation had high transfer to head pointing while the head adaptation had very little transfer to arm pointing. These results imply that, while the arm segments may share a common target representation for goal-directed actions, individual but functionally dependent target representations may exist for the control of head and arm movements.

Seidler, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Relationships Between Vestibular Measures as Potential Predictors for Spaceflight Sensorimotor Adaptation

Introduction: During space exploration missions astronauts are exposed to a series of novel sensorimotor environments, requiring sensorimotor adaptation. Until adaptation is complete, sensorimotor decrements occur, affecting critical tasks such as piloted landing or docking. Of particularly interest are locomotion tasks such as emergency vehicle egress or extra-vehicular activity. While nearly all astronauts eventually adapt sufficiently, it appears there are substantial individual differences in how quickly and effectively this adaptation occurs. These individual differences in capacity for sensorimotor adaptation are poorly understood. Broadly, we aim to identify measures that may serve as pre-flight predictors of and individual's adaptation capacity to spaceflight-induced sensorimotor changes. As a first step, since spaceflight is thought to involve a reinterpretation of graviceptor cues (e.g. otolith cues from the vestibular system) we investigate the relationships between various measures of vestibular function in humans. Methods: In a set of 15 ground-based control subjects, we quantified individual differences in vestibular function using three measures: 1) ocular vestibular evoked myogenic potential (oVEMP), 2) computerized dynamic posturography and 3) vestibular perceptual thresholds. oVEMP responses are elicited using a mechanical stimuli approach. Computerized dynamic posturography was used to quantify Sensory Organization Tests (SOTs), including SOT5M which involved performing pitching head movements while balancing on a sway-reference support surface with eyes closed. We implemented a vestibular perceptual threshold task using the tilt capabilities of the Tilt-Translation Sled (TTS) at JSC. On each trial, the subject was passively roll-tilted left ear down or right ear down in the dark and verbally provided a forced-choice response regarding which direction they felt tilted. The motion profile was a single-cycle sinusoid of angular acceleration with a duration of 5 seconds (frequency of 0.2 Hz), which was selected as it requires sensory integration of otolith and semicircular canal cues. Stimuli direction was randomized and magnitude was determined using an adaptive sampling procedure. One hundred trials were provided and each subject's responses were fit with a psychometric curve to estimate the subject's threshold. Results: Roll tilt perceptual thresholds at 0.2 Hz ranged from 0.5 degrees to 1.82 degrees across the 15 subjects (geometric mean of 1.04 degrees), consistent with previous studies. The inter-individual variability in thresholds may be able to help explain individual differences observed in sensorimotor adaptation to spaceflight. Analysis is ongoing for the oVEMPS and computerized dynamic posturography to identify relationships between the various vestibular measures. Discussion: Predicting individual differences in sensorimotor adaptation is critical both for the development of personalized countermeasures and mission planning. Here we aim to develop a basis of vestibular tests and parameters which may serve as predictors of individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability through studying the relationship between these measures.

Clark, T. K.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Biocybernetic Adaptation Strategies: Machine Awareness of Human Engagement for Improved Operational Performance

Human operators interacting with machines or computers continually adapt to the needs of the system ideally resulting in optimal performance. In some cases, however, deteriorated performance is an outcome. Adaptation to the situation is a strength expected of the human operator which is often accomplished by the human through self-regulation of mental state. Adaptation is at the core of the human operator's activity, and research has demonstrated that the implementation of a feedback loop can enhance this natural skill to improve training and human/machine interaction. Biocybernetic adaptation involves a “loop upon a loop,” which may be visualized as a superimposed loop which senses a physiological signal and influences the operator’s task at some point. Biocybernetic adaptation in, for example, physiologically adaptive automation employs the “steering” sense of “cybernetic,” and serves a transitory adaptive purpose – to better serve the human operator by more fully representing their responses to the sys- tem. The adaptation process usually makes use of an assessment of transient cog- nitive state to steer a functional aspect of a system that is external to the operator’s physiology from which the state assessment is derived. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to detail the structure of biocybernetic systems regarding the level of engagement of interest for adaptive systems, their processing pipeline, and the adaptation strategies employed for training purposes, in an effort to pave the way towards machine awareness of human state for self-regulation and improved operational performance.

Stephens, Chad↗

DOE OSTI2021

Accelerated basis adaptation in homogeneous chaos spaces

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) provide an efficient approach to uncertainty quantification (UQ) and have been adapted to diverse applications across the spectrum of science and engineering. For situations involving large stochastic parameterizations, the curse of dimensionality renders PCE-based methods computationally prohibitive. A basis adaptation approach for PCE was proposed by Tipireddy and Ghanem (2014) which transforms the input random variables through an isometry such that sufficient probabilistic characterization of specific quantities of interest (QoI) is concentrated in an algebraic manifold embedded in the linear span of the dominant transformed variables. While quite versatile, that original version of the PCE basis adaptation exhibited slow convergence for a number of problems of practical significance. In the present paper, we propose two novel methods to accelerate the convergence of the original basis adaptation approach, thus expanding its reach while also providing insight into its performance. In the first method, information gained from a pilot PCE representation is used to correct the mean and Gaussian coefficients in the adapted space. By taking advantages of probabilistic information in higher dimensional adaptation gleaned from an initial adaptation, the second method updates the rotation matrix used to identify the dominant transformed variables. In this manner, the new rotation matrix concentrates even more probabilistic information in its first few dimensions. These two method can be combined to achieve even better performance, the combined method is referred to as sequentially optimized adaptation method. Here, the methods are demonstrated on an analytical test function and a model of a space structure with several sub-components and a non-smooth quantity of interest representing the maximum acceleration over time. Both methods achieve accelerated convergence of the basis adaptation approach with negligible additional costs.

Accelerated convergence↗

DOE OSTI2021

hr-Adaptivity for nonconforming high-order meshes with the target matrix optimization paradigm

In this study, we present an \(hr\) -adaptivity framework for optimization of high-order meshes. This work extends the r -adaptivity method by Dobrev et al. (Comput Fluids, 2020), where we utilized the Target-Matrix Optimization Paradigm (TMOP) to minimize a functional that depends on each element’s current and target geometric parameters: element aspect-ratio , size , skew , and rotation . Since fixed mesh topology limits the ability to achieve the target size and aspect-ratio at each position, in this paper, we augment the r -adaptivity framework with nonconforming adaptive mesh refinement to further reduce the error with respect to the target geometric parameters. The proposed formulation, referred to as \(hr\) -adaptivity, introduces TMOP-based quality estimators to satisfy the aspect-ratio target via anisotropic refinements and size target via isotropic refinements in each element of the mesh. The methodology presented is purely algebraic, extends to both simplices and hexahedra/quadrilaterals of any order, and supports nonconforming isotropic and anisotropic refinements in 2D and 3D. Using a problem with a known exact solution, we demonstrate the effectiveness of \(hr\) -adaptivity over both r - and \(h\) -adaptivity in obtaining similar accuracy in the solution with significantly fewer mesh nodes. We also present several examples that show that \(hr\) -adaptivity can help satisfy geometric targets even when \(r\) -adaptivity fails to do so, due to the topology of the initial mesh.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1998

Adaptation in a rotating artificial gravity environment

The centripetal force generated by a rotating space vehicle is a potential source of artificial gravity. Minimizing the cost of such a vehicle dictates using the smallest radius and highest rotation rate possible, but head movements made at high rotation rates generate disorienting, nauseogenic cross-coupled semicircular canal stimulation. Early studies suggested 3 or 4 rpm as the highest rate at which humans could adapt to this vestibular stimulus. These studies neglected the concomitant Coriolis force actions on the head/neck system. We assessed non-vestibular Coriolis effects by measuring arm and leg movements made in the center of a rotating room turning at 10 rpm and found that movement endpoints and trajectories are initially deviated; however, subjects readily adapt with 10-20 additional movements, even without seeing their errors. Equilibrium point theories of motor control errantly predict that Coriolis forces will not cause movement endpoint errors so that subjects will not have to adapt their reaching movements during rotation. Adaptation of movement trajectory acquired during Coriolis force perturbations of one arm transfers to the unexposed arm but there is no intermanual transfer of endpoint adaptation indicating that neuromotor representations of movement endpoint and trajectory are separable and can adapt independently, also contradictory to equilibrium point theories. Touching a surface at the end of reaching movements is required for complete endpoint adaptation in darkness but trajectory adapts completely with or without terminal contact. We have also made the first kinematic measurements of unconstrained head movements during rotation, these movements show rapid adaptation to Coriolis force perturbations. Our results point to methods for achieving full compensation for rotation up to 10 rpm. Copyright 1998 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2014

Application of Low Dose Radiation Adaptive Response to Control Aging-Related Disease

Oxidative damage has been implicated in the pathogenesis of most aging-related diseases including neurodegenerative diseases. Antioxidant supplementation has been found to be ineffective in reducing such diseases, but increased endogenous production of antioxidants from the adaptive response due to physical and cognitive exercises (which increase oxidative metabolism and oxidative stress) has been effective in reducing some of the diseases. Low dose radiation (LDR), which increases oxidative stress and results in adaptive response of increased antioxidants, may provide an alternative method of controlling the aging-related diseases. We have studied the effect of LDR on the induction of adaptive response in rat brains and the effectiveness of the LDR in reducing the oxidative damage caused by subsequent high dose radiation. We have also investigated the effect of LDR on apomorphine-induced rotations in the 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) unilaterally-lesioned rat model of Parkinson's disease (PD). LDR was observed to initiate an adaptive response in the brain, and reduce the oxidative damage from subsequent high dose radiation exposure, confirming the effectiveness of LDR adaptive response in reducing the oxidative damage from the free radicals due to high dose radiation. LDR resulted in a slight improvement in Tyrosine hydroxylase expression on the lesioned side of substantia nigra (indicative of its protective effect on the dopaminergic neurons), and reduced the behavioral symptoms in the 6-OHDA rat model of PD. Translation of this concept to humans, if found to be applicable, may be a possible approach for controlling the progression of PD and other neurodegenerative diseases. Since any translation of the concept to humans would be hindered by the currently prevalent carcinogenic concerns regarding LDR based on the linear no-threshold (LNT) model, we have also studied the justifications for the use of the LNT model. One of the shortcomings of the LNT model is that it ignores the effects of any adaptive response of the body to the LDR. The importance of considering adaptive response becomes obvious when one considers the sharp contrast between (i) the failure of well-designed anti-angiogenesis therapies which resulted in aggressive tumors because of ignoring adaptive response and (ii) the occasional cure of untreated metastatic lesions likely due to the incidental adaptive response from the LDR exposure to parts of the body during radiation therapy of a primary tumor, known as the abscopal effect. Another shortcoming of the LNT model is that it pays exclusive attention to increase in mutations, which is not a decisive factor in the occurrence of clinical cancers, as the cause of excess cancers. On the other hand, LNT model ignores the immune system response, which plays a very important role in preventing occult cancers from becoming clinical cancers, as demonstrated by the large increase in cancers in organ transplant patients whose immune system is suppressed. There is also recent epidemiological evidence against the LNT model. A re-analysis of the latest update to the atomic bomb survivor data has shown that the data no longer support the LNT model but are consistent with the radiation hormesis hypothesis. A re-analysis of cancer incidence data of Taiwanese apartment dwellers that were exposed to LDR from contaminated building materials has also shown a reduction in cancers from the LDR. The present LDR carcinogenic concerns would preclude any human study of cancer prevention using LDR, since the study would require subjecting a large asymptomatic population to LDR. However, pilot studies of radiation hormesis in cancer patients may be more acceptable since these would require irradiation of limited numbers of patients in order to assess the effectiveness of the LDR treatments. Some of the LDR applications that may be considered for cancer patients are: LDR treatment of early stage cancers without the adverse side effects of current treatments such as radiation therapy or chemotherapy, adjuvant LDR treatment of cancer patients undergoing radiation therapy for better tumor control and reduced metastasis, and the use of LDR treatment following radiation therapy to reduce the risk of second cancers from the radiation therapy. Studies of LDR for the control of early-stage neurodegenerative diseases may also be more acceptable since currently there are no effective treatments available for controlling these diseases, and since such studies would require LDR exposure to limited parts of the brain, and the carcinogenic risk from such treatments would be very small due to the low radiation tissue-weighting factor for the brain. Success in these studies can lead to the study of LDR for preventing and controlling other aging-related diseases.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive protection opportunities, gap assessments, and designs

This report provides a comprehensive overview of adaptive protection schemes in use by distribution systems for protection, switching and control on their systems. A significant focus is placed on how existing schemes can be impacted by increasing penetrations of DER as well as how these schemes can enable DER penetrations to increase. EPRI have conducted a survey of member utilities and performed a comprehensive literature review with the goal of baselining the research and identifying gaps with a focus on the issues that were encountered with adaptive protection on real systems. The five adaptive protection applications that are most prevalent on systems today are discussed in detail. These are weather-based fuse-saving, adaptive protection to reduce short-circuit current, adaptive protection for DER, adaptive protection for microgrids, and distribution automation. A broad overview of the technology is given for each scheme. Issues that have been encountered by utilities are highlighted and the safety and reliability impacts are also examined. As distribution systems, intelligent electronic devices, grid equipment and distribution management systems are rapidly evolving, adaptive protection techniques and technologies will become more widely adopted. This report proposes a framework for a conceptual automatic adaptive protection system. EPRI have ongoing research, development and demonstration projects in all of the constituent elements, however challenges remain to link the elements together in a secure and reliable way. EPRI will continue research into automated adaptive protection applications and challenges for the systems of today and future applications to assist system operators in managing the evolving system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Online Magnetic Resonance Image Guided Adaptive Radiation Therapy: First Clinical Applications

Purpose: To demonstrate the feasibility of online adaptive magnetic resonance (MR) image guided radiation therapy (MR-IGRT) through reporting of our initial clinical experience and workflow considerations. Methods and Materials: The first clinically deployed online adaptive MR-IGRT system consisted of a split 0.35T MR scanner straddling a ring gantry with 3 multileaf collimator-equipped {sup 60}Co heads. The unit is supported by a Monte Carlo–based treatment planning system that allows real-time adaptive planning with the patient on the table. All patients undergo computed tomography and MR imaging (MRI) simulation for initial treatment planning. A volumetric MRI scan is acquired for each patient at the daily treatment setup. Deformable registration is performed using the planning computed tomography data set, which allows for the transfer of the initial contours and the electron density map to the daily MRI scan. The deformed electron density map is then used to recalculate the original plan on the daily MRI scan for physician evaluation. Recontouring and plan reoptimization are performed when required, and patient-specific quality assurance (QA) is performed using an independent in-house software system. Results: The first online adaptive MR-IGRT treatments consisted of 5 patients with abdominopelvic malignancies. The clinical setting included neoadjuvant colorectal (n=3), unresectable gastric (n=1), and unresectable pheochromocytoma (n=1). Recontouring and reoptimization were deemed necessary for 3 of 5 patients, and the initial plan was deemed sufficient for 2 of the 5 patients. The reasons for plan adaptation included tumor progression or regression and a change in small bowel anatomy. In a subsequently expanded cohort of 170 fractions (20 patients), 52 fractions (30.6%) were reoptimized online, and 92 fractions (54.1%) were treated with an online-adapted or previously adapted plan. The median time for recontouring, reoptimization, and QA was 26 minutes. Conclusion: Online adaptive MR-IGRT has been successfully implemented with planning and QA workflow suitable for routine clinical application. Clinical trials are in development to formally evaluate adaptive treatments for a variety of disease sites.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Local adaptation of both plant and pathogen: an arms‐race compromise in switchgrass rust

In coevolving species, parasites locally adapt to host populations as hosts locally adapt to resist parasites. Parasites often outpace host local adaptation since they have rapid life cycles, but host diversity, the strength of selection, and external environmental influence can result in complex outcomes. To better understand local adaptation in host–parasite systems, we examined locally adapted switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), and its leaf rust pathogen (Puccinia novopanici) across a latitudinal range in North America. We grew switchgrass genotypes in 10 replicated multiyear common gardens, measuring rust severity from natural infection in a ‘host reciprocal transplant’ framework for testing local adaptation. We conducted genome-wide association mapping to identify genetic loci associated with rust severity. Genetically differentiated rust populations were locally adapted to northern and southern switchgrass, despite host local adaptation to environmental conditions in the same regions. Rust resistance was polygenic, and distinct loci were associated with rust severity in the north and south. We narrowed a previously identified large-effect quantitative trait locus for rust severity to a candidate YELLOW STRIPE-LIKE gene and linked numerous other loci to defense-related genes. Overall, our results suggest that both hosts and parasites can be simultaneously locally adapted, especially when parasites impose less selection than other environmental factors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

WE-G-BRF-01: Adaptation to Intrafraction Tumor Deformation During Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy: First Proof-Of-Principle Demonstration

Purpose: Intrafraction tumor deformation limits targeting accuracy in radiotherapy and cannot be adapted to by current motion management techniques. This study simulated intrafractional treatment adaptation to tumor deformations using a dynamic Multi-Leaf Collimator (DMLC) tracking system during Intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatment for the first time. Methods: The DMLC tracking system was developed to adapt to the intrafraction tumor deformation by warping the planned beam aperture guided by the calculated deformation vector field (DVF) obtained from deformable image registration (DIR) at the time of treatment delivery. Seven single phantom deformation images up to 10.4 mm deformation and eight tumor system phantom deformation images up to 21.5 mm deformation were acquired and used in tracking simulation. The intrafraction adaptation was simulated at the DMLC tracking software platform, which was able to communicate with the image registration software, reshape the instantaneous IMRT field aperture and log the delivered MLC fields.The deformation adaptation accuracy was evaluated by a geometric target coverage metric defined as the sum of the area incorrectly outside and inside the reference aperture. The incremental deformations were arbitrarily determined to take place equally over the delivery interval. The geometric target coverage of delivery with deformation adaptation was compared against the delivery without adaptation. Results: Intrafraction deformation adaptation during dynamic IMRT plan delivery was simulated for single and system deformable phantoms. For the two particular delivery situations, over the treatment course, deformation adaptation improved the target coverage by 89% for single target deformation and 79% for tumor system deformation compared with no-tracking delivery. Conclusion: This work demonstrated the principle of real-time tumor deformation tracking using a DMLC. This is the first step towards the development of an image-guided radiotherapy system to treat deforming tumors in real-time. The authors acknowledge funding support from the Australian NHMRC Australia Fellowship, Cure Cancer Australia Foundation, NHMRC Project Grant APP1042375 and US NIH/NCI R01CA93626.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Quantitative adaptation analytics for assessing dynamic systems of systems: LDRD Final Report

Our society is increasingly reliant on systems and interoperating collections of systems, known as systems of systems (SoS). These SoS are often subject to changing missions (e.g., nation- building, arms-control treaties), threats (e.g., asymmetric warfare, terrorism), natural environments (e.g., climate, weather, natural disasters) and budgets. How well can SoS adapt to these types of dynamic conditions? This report details the results of a three year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project aimed at developing metrics and methodologies for quantifying the adaptability of systems and SoS. Work products include: derivation of a set of adaptability metrics, a method for combining the metrics into a system of systems adaptability index (SoSAI) used to compare adaptability of SoS designs, development of a prototype dynamic SoS (proto-dSoS) simulation environment which provides the ability to investigate the validity of the adaptability metric set, and two test cases that evaluate the usefulness of a subset of the adaptability metrics and SoSAI for distinguishing good from poor adaptability in a SoS. Intellectual property results include three patents pending: A Method For Quantifying Relative System Adaptability, Method for Evaluating System Performance, and A Method for Determining Systems Re-Tasking.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Modeling adaptation of carbon use efficiency in microbial communities

In new microbial-biogeochemical models, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is often assumed to decline with increasing temperature. Under this assumption, soil carbon losses under warming are small because microbial biomass declines. Yet there is also empirical evidence that CUE may adapt (i.e., become less sensitive) to warming, thereby mitigating negative effects on microbial biomass. To analyze potential mechanisms of CUE adaptation, I used two theoretical models to implement a tradeoff between microbial uptake rate and CUE. This rate-yield tradeoff is based on thermodynamic principles and suggests that microbes with greater investment in resource acquisition should have lower CUE. Microbial communities or individuals could adapt to warming by reducing investment in enzymes and uptake machinery. Consistent with this idea, a simple analytical model predicted that adaptation can offset 50% of the warming-induced decline in CUE. To assess the ecosystem implications of the rate-yield tradeoff, I quantified CUE adaptation in a spatially-structured simulation model with 100 microbial taxa and 12 soil carbon substrates. This model predicted much lower CUE adaptation, likely due to additional physiological and ecological constraints on microbes. In particular, specific resource acquisition traits are needed to maintain stoichiometric balance, and taxa with high CUE and low enzyme investment rely on low-yield, high-enzyme neighbors to catalyze substrate degradation. In contrast to published microbial models, simulations with greater CUE adaptation also showed greater carbon storage under warming. This pattern occurred because microbial communities with stronger CUE adaptation produced fewer degradative enzymes, despite increases in biomass. Thus, the rate-yield tradeoff prevents CUE adaptation from driving ecosystem carbon loss under climate warming.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Expectations of Future Natural Hazards in Human Adaptation to Concurrent Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Human adaptation to climate change is the outcome of long-term decisions continuously made and revised by local communities. Adaptation choices can be represented by economic investment models in which the often large upfront cost of adaptation is offset by the future benefits of avoiding losses due to future natural hazards. In this context, we investigate the role that expectations of future natural hazards have on adaptation in the Colorado River basin of the USA. We apply an innovative approach that quantifies the impacts of changes in concurrent climate extremes, with a focus on flooding events. By including the expectation of future natural hazards in adaptation models, we examine how public policies can focus on this component to support local community adaptation efforts. Findings indicate that considering the concurrent distribution of several variables makes quantification and prediction of extremes easier, more realistic, and consequently improves our capability to model human systems adaptation. Hazard expectation is a leading force in adaptation. Even without assuming increases in exposure, the Colorado River basin is expected to face harsh increases in damage from flooding events unless local communities are able to incorporate climate change and expected increases in extremes in their adaptation planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗