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NASA NTRS1985

Processing of laser formed SiC powder

Superior SiC characteristics can be achieved through the use of ideal constituent powders and careful post-synthesis processing steps. High purity SiC powders of approx. 1000 A uniform diameter, nonagglomerated and spherical were produced. This required major revision of the particle formation and growth model from one based on classical nucleation and growth to one based on collision and coalescence of Si particles followed by their carburization. Dispersions based on pure organic solvents as well as steric stabilization were investigated. Although stable dispersions were formed by both, subsequent part fabrication emphasized the pure solvents since fewer problems with drying and residuals of the high purity particles were anticipated. Test parts were made by the colloidal pressing technique; both liquid filtration and consolidation (rearrangement) stages were modeled. Green densities corresponding to a random close packed structure (approx. 63%) were achieved; this highly perfect structure has a high, uniform coordination number (greater than 11) approaching the quality of an ordered structure without introducing domain boundary effects. After drying, parts were densified at temperatures ranging from 1800 to 2100 C. Optimum densification temperatures will probably be in the 1900 to 2000 C range based on these preliminary results which showed that 2050 C samples had experienced substantial grain growth. Although overfired, the 2050 C samples exhibited excellent mechanical properties. Biaxial tensile strengths up to 714 MPa and Vickers hardness values of 2430 kg/sq mm 2 were both more typical of hot pressed than sintered SiC. Both result from the absence of large defects and the confinement of residual porosity (less than 2.5%) to small diameter, uniformly distributed pores.

Haggerty, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1949

Heat transfer from high-temperature surfaces to fluids II : correlation of heat-transfer and friction data for air flowing in inconel tube with rounded entrance

A heat transfer investigation, which was an extension of a previously reported NACA investigation, was conducted with air flowing through an electrically heated inconel tube with a rounded entrance,an inside diameter of 0.402 inch, and a length of 24 inches over a range of conditions, which included Reynolds numbers up to 500,000, average surface temperatures up to 2050 degrees R, and heat-flux densities up to 150,000 Btu per hour per square foot. Conventional methods of correlating heat-transfer data wherein properties of the air were evaluated at the average bulk, film, and surface temperatures resulted in reductions of Nusselt number of about 38, 46, and 53 percent, respectively, for an increase in surface temperature from 605 degrees to 2050 degrees R at constant Reynolds number. A modified correlation method in which the properties of air were based on the surface temperature and the Reynolds number was modified by substituting the product of the density at the inside tube wall and the bulk velocity for the conventional mass flow per unit cross-sectional area, resulted in a satisfactory correlation of the data for the extended ranges of conditions investigated.

Lowdermilk, Warren H↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA, Remote Sensing and Archaeology: An Example from Southeast Louisiana

NASA Stennis Space Center, located in Mississippi, USA, undertook an archaeological survey of the southeastern Louisiana marshes beginning in 2003. Progress on this activity was severely hampered by the 2005 hurricane season when both Katrina and Rita devastated the study area. In 2008, the NASA team reinitiated the analysis of the project data and that work continues today. The project was conducted initially in partnership with the U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers New Orleans District and Tulane University. NASA and its partners utilized a wide variety of satellite and airborne remote sensing instruments combined with field verification surveys to identify prehistoric archeological sites in the Southeastern Louisiana delta, both known and still undiscovered. The main approach was to carefully map known sites and use the spectral characteristics of these sites to locate high probability targets elsewhere in the region. The archaeological activities were conducted in support of Coast 2050 whose stated goals is to sustain and restore a coastal ecosystem that supports and protects the environment, economy and culture of southern Louisiana. As the Coast 2050 report states: [T]he rate of coastal land loss in Louisiana has reached catastrophic proportions. Within the last 50 years, land loss rates have exceeded 40 square miles per year, and in the 1990's the rate has been estimated to be between 25 and 35 square miles each year. This loss represents 80% of the coastal wetland loss in the entire continental United States.

Giardino, Marco J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Water Information System Platforms Addressing Critical Societal Needs in the Mena Region

The MENA region includes 18 countries, the occupied Palestinian territories and Western Sahara. However, the region of interest for this study has a strategic interest in countries adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, which includes, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. The 90% of the water in the MENA region is used for the agriculture use. By the end of this century. this region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation (lPCC, 2007). Due to lower precipitation, water run-off is projected to drop by 20% to 30% in most of MENA by 2050 Reduced stream flow and groundwater recharge might lead to a reduction in water supply of 10% or greater by 2050. Therefore, per IPCC projections in temperature rise and precipitation decline in the region, the scarcity of water will become more acute with population growth, and rising demand of food in the region. Additionally, the trans boundary water issues will continue to plague the region in terms of sharing data for better management of water resources. Such pressing issues have brought The World Bank, USAID and NASA to jointly collaborate for establishing integrated, modern, up to date NASA developed capabilities for countries in the MENA region for addressing water resource issues and adapting to climate change impacts for improved decision making and societal benefit. This initiative was launched in October 2011 and is schedule to be completed by the end of2015.

Habib, Shahid↗

NASA NTRS2016

Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

land-use patterns↗

NASA NTRS2018

Projecting Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Actual Evapotranspiration for the Narmada River Basin in Central India in the Future

Assessment of actual evapotranspiration (ET) is essential as it controls the exchange of water and heat energy between the atmosphere and land surface. ET also influences the available water resources and assists in the crop water assessment in agricultural areas. This study involves the assessment of spatial distribution of seasonal and annual ET using Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and provides an estimation of future changes in ET due to land use and climate change for a portion of the Narmada river basin in Central India. Climate change effects on future ET are assessed using the ACCESS1-0 model of CMIP5. A Markov Chain model estimated future land use based on the probability of changes in the past. The ET analysis is carried out for the years 2009-2011. The results indicate variation in the seasonal ET with the changed land use. High ET is observed over forest areas and crop lands, but ET decreases over crop lands after harvest. The overall annual ET is high over water bodies and forest areas. ET is high in the premonsoon season over the water bodies and decreases in the winter. Future ET in the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s is shown with respect to land use and climate changes that project a gradual decrease due to the constant removal of the forest areas. The lowest ET is projected in 2050. Individual impact of land use change projects decreases in ET from 1990 to 2050, while climate change effect projects increases in ET in the future due to rises in temperature. However, the combined impacts of land use and climate changes indicate a decrease in ET in the future.

Kundu, Sananda↗

NASA NTRS2018

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Mid-21st Century Ozone Air Quality and Health Burden in China Under Emissions Scenarios and Climate Change

Despite modest emissions reductions of air pollutants in recent years, China still suffers from poor air quality, and the outlook for future air quality in China is uncertain. We explore the impact of two disparate 2050 emissions scenarios relative to 2015 in the context of a changing climate with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model version 3 (GFDL-AM3) chemistry-climate model. We impose the same near-term climate change for both emission scenarios by setting global sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) to the average over 2010–2019 and 2046–2055, respectively, from a three-member ensemble of GFDL coupled climate model simulations under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. By the 2050s, annual mean surface ozone increases throughout China by up to 8 ppbv from climate change alone (estimated by holding air pollutants at 2015 levels while setting SIC and SST to 2050 conditions in the model) and by 8–12 ppbv in a scenario in which emissions of ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NO (sub x) ) and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) increase by ~10%. In a scenario in which NO (sub x) and anthropogenic VOC emissions decline by 60%, annual mean surface ozone over China decreases by 16–20 ppbv in the 2050s relative to the 2010s. The ozone increase from climate change alone results in an additional 62 000 premature deaths in China as compared to 330 000 fewer premature deaths by the 2050s under a strong emissions mitigation scenario. In springtime over Southwestern China in the 2050s, the model projects 9–12 ppbv enhancements to surface ozone from the stratosphere (diagnosed with a model tracer) and from international anthropogenic emissions (diagnosed by differencing AM3 simulations with the same emissions within China but higher versus lower emissions in the rest of the world). Our findings highlight the effectiveness of emissions controls in reducing the health burden in China due to air pollution, and also the potential for climate change and rising global emissions to offset, at least partially, some of the ozone decreases attained with regional emission reductions in China.

Westervelt, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Mitigations to Reduce the Law of Unintended Consequences for Autonomy and Other Technological Advances

The United Nations states that Earth’s population is expected to reach just under 10 billion people (9.7) by the year 2050. To meet the demands of 10 billion people, governments, multinational corporations and global leaders are relying on autonomy and technological advances to augment and/or accommodate human efforts to meet the required needs of daily living. Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) gene-edited plants and cloning will be utilized to expand human food supply. Biomimetic implants are expected to improve life expectancy with 3D printed body parts. Human functioning will be extended with wearables and cybernetic implants continuing humanity’s path toward transhumanism. Families will be strengthened with 3 parent households. Disease will surely be eradicated using the CRISPR-CAS9 genetic engineering revolution to design out undesirable human traits and to design in new capabilities. With autonomous cars, trucks and buses on our roads and on-demand autonomous aircraft delivering pizzas, medical prescriptions and groceries in the air and multi-planet vehicles traversing space, utopia will finally arrive! Or will it? All of these powerful, man-made, technological systems will experience unintended consequences with certainty. Instead of over-reacting with hysteria and fear, we should be seeking answers to the following questions - “What skills are required to architect socially-healthy technological systems for 2050?” “What mindsets should we embody to ameliorate hubris syndrome and to build our future technological systems with deliberation, soberness and social responsibility?”

Morris, A. Terry↗

NASA NTRS2022

Clean Air Policies Are Key for Successfully Mitigating Arctic Warming

A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995–2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2022

Present-Day and Future PM 2.5 and O 3 -Related Global and Regional Premature Mortality in the EVAv6.0 Health Impact Assessment Model

We used the EVAv6.0 system to estimate the present (2015) and future (2015–2050) global PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortalities, using simulated surface concentrations from the GISS-E2.1-G Earth system model. The PM 2.5 -related global premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases are found to be the leading cause of PM 2.5 -related premature deaths, contributing by 35% globally. Both long-term and short-term O 3 -related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. Overall, PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality leads to 5.3–5.4 million premature deaths, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, which in 2015 contributes by 75% of the total global premature deaths. An increase from 6.2% to 8% in the PM 2.5 relative risk as recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM 2.5 -related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Finally, bias correcting the simulated PM 2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM 2.5 -related premature mortality, leading to a total number of global premature deaths of up to 7.7 million, implying the necessity of bias correction to get more robust health burden estimates. PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality in 2050 decreases by up to 57% and 18%, respectively, due to emission reductions alone. However, the projected increase and aging of the population leads to increases of premature mortality by up to a factor of 2, showing that the population exposed to air pollution is more important than the level of air pollutants, highlighting that the population dynamics should be considered when setting up health assessment systems.

Premature mortality↗

NASA NTRS2022

The need for reference-able and peer reviewed position papers

Space Physics community members are putting substantial efforts and ideas into position papers, in preparation for the U.S. Heliophysics Decadal Survey process; an analysis of the current state of the field and where future research, mission programs, and funding should focus. Furthermore, Space Physics community members in Europe and the U.S. have recently put substantial efforts and ideas into position papers for Vision 2050 and Heliophysics 2050. There are also other ideas in the community about the needs and focus of future Space Physics research efforts, whether they were submitted to other road mapping activities, or have yet to find the appropriate home. With this in mind, we have created a Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences Research Topic ’The Future of Space Physics 2022’, to provide a format for a reference-able, peer reviewed, archived, accessible collection of these ideas from around the world. We wish to make these ideas available to the national academies decadal survey committees, the broader research community and a wider audience, by developing this collection. The collection will publish high-quality papers on key topics across the field of Space Physics, aiming to highlight recent advances in the field, whilst emphasizing important directions and new possibilities for future inquiries.

Alexa Jean Halford↗

NASA NTRS2023

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Electrical Grid Capacity in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas for Urban Air Mobility

A wide range of challenges must be overcome to conduct Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations at scale with electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft as envisioned. This paper documents an analysis of one potential infrastructure challenge for UAM: available electrical grid power capacity. The success of UAM depends on the availability of electricity, which will be increasingly impacted by the proliferation of ground electric vehicles (EVs) over time. Under the worst-case assumption that each U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) can only access and utilize the electricity generated by power plants within its boundaries, it is estimated that the maximum number of UAM aircraft that can charge simultaneously in the 25 most populous MSAs will decrease by about 61% from about 129,000 in the year 2021 to about 51,000 in the year 2050, due to the projected increase in ground EVs. Also, it is estimated that the number of these MSAs that may lack any available electrical grid power capacity for UAM operations will increase from zero MSAs in 2021 to eleven MSAs in 2050—including three MSAs that prospective UAM operators have announced as target markets (Los Angeles, Miami, and Orlando)—unless electricity demand for other purposes is reduced.

electrical grid↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Electrical Grid Capacity in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas for Urban Air Mobility

electrical grid↗

NASA NTRS2024

Future CH4 Budgets as Modelled By A Fully Coupled Earth System Model Using Prescribed GHG Concentrations vs. Interactive CH4 Sources and Sinks

We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios. GISS-E2.1 is one of the few ESMs that can be driven by anthropogenic CH4 emissions, as well as interactive natural sources such as wetlands, and can simulate the tropospheric CH4 chemistry. In frame of the recent short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) assessment by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), we used the GISS-E2.1 model with prescribed long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. In the present study, we have supplemented these simulations using the interactive CH4 sources and sinks in order to quantify the model performance and the sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the Eclipse V6b emission database to simulate the future chemical composition and climate impacts from 2015 to 2050. We have also simulated 1995-2014 in order to evaluate the model performance following the AMAP-SLCF protocol. The prescribed GHG version underestimates the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) surface CH4 observations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1% [-8.4%-2.0%], with a correlation (r) of 0.71 [-0.41 0.99]. The largest underestimations are over the continental emission regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia, while biases are smallest over oceans. On the other hand, the simulation with interactive sources and sinks underestimates the GAW observations more than the prescribed simulation, by 18.5% [-25% -10.4%], with a lower r of 0.36 [-0.82 0.93]. Opposite to the prescribed simulation, the biases are largest over oceans and smaller over the continents, however they are still larger over land than the prescribed simulation. The interactive simulation, with large sources virtually over land and strong sink over oceans, has a land/ocean ratio larger than 1 while the prescribed simulation has this ratio equal to 1 as it distributes the global prescribed CH4 concentration equally in longitude over a given latitude. This clearly shows that the interactive sources and sinks should be represented in models in order to realistically simulate the chemical composition and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. As expected, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In the CLE scenario, increases are largest over the equatorial belt, in particular over India and East China, while the MFR scenario shows increases over the whole Southern Hemisphere, however much smaller compared to CLE. Finally, the interactive simulation shows that the chemical CH4 sink increases in the CLE scenario, while it slightly decreases in the MFR, leading to a larger CH4 lifetime in the MFR scenario compared to in the CLE scenario.

CH4↗

NASA NTRS2024

Aerocapture: An Enabling Technology for Flagship-Class Uranus Orbiter and Probe Mission

Introduction: The current decadal survey published by the National Academies of Sciences has informed National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to prioritize the study of the Ice Giants, especially Uranus. To gather the required data that addresses the science questions raised in this survey, a mission to Uranus with an orbiter and atmospheric probe must be designed. The Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) study, which the survey identified as the flagship mission of this decade, proposes a 2031 launch to take advantage of a Jupiter fly-by and utilizes a fully propulsive orbit insertion design with an Earth-to-Uranus transit times ranging from 13 to 15 years. This fully propulsive orbit insertion at Uranus will be very fuel expensive (wet mass percentages of around 60-70\%) thereby leaving less mass for the scientific payload and additional planetary probes. In addition, scientists are more interested in visiting Uranus before 2049, when the Spring Equinox will occur, as it allows studying Uranus seasons not seen during Voyager 2's flyby in 1987. A NASA Flagship-Class mission would require at least 10 years of lead time prior to launch thereby making the 2031 launch to take advantage of the Jupiter fly-by extremely challenging. The consequence of missing the Jupiter fly-by and launching in the late 2030s is the challenge of a fully-propulsive mission like UOP to have a feasible alternative interplanetary trajectory that reaches Uranus before 2050. As an alternative, to address the shortcomings of the fully propulsive mission, one can design a mission to Uranus using aerocapture. What is aerocapture: Aerocapture is an atmospheric maneuver that uses aerodynamic forces generated by flight within a planetary atmosphere to decelerate and achieve orbit insertion. Using aerocapture allows one to provide the change in velocity (Delta V) needed to slow down from the approach hyperbolic trajectory to achieve the desired captured orbit around the target planet using aerodynamic forces of the vehicle (lift and drag). Using aerodynamic forces instead of fully-propulsive maneuvers results in significant savings in the fuel. Furthermore, aerocapture can also allow one to consider interplanetary trajectories with higher approach hyperbolic velocities, thus reducing the mission transit times. Aerocapture as an enabling technology: To use aerocapture as an enabling technology for the Uranus exploration mission, one would require an integrated system-level design, including a Thermal Protection System (TPS), hardware needed for aerodynamic modulation, and autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) systems. Aerocapture has yet to be demonstrated, despite considering it for several past missions. Recent advancements in TPS and GNC capabilities show the potential for using rigid, heritage entry vehicle configurations already flown at other planetary bodies for Uranus aerocapture. Aerocapture can be a robust technology that can deliver spacecraft to Uranus science orbits while substantially increasing on-orbit payload mass (more than 40\%) that can enable robust atmospheric entry probes. Additionally, the aerocapture maneuver would reduce the interplanetary transit time by 2–5 years (15-30\%) relative to fully-propulsive orbit insertion. Recent work has shown that one can conduct a flagship-class mission in a shorter period than fully-propulsive missions if using aerocapture. What does aerocapture bring in for a Uranus Mission: Using aerocapture for a Uranus orbiter and atmospheric probe mission can provide one with considerable propellant savings. Spacecraft in interplanetary trajectories to Uranus typically need an Delta V in orders of kilometers per second to insert into science orbit. One would require thousands of kilograms of fuel to achieve such a Delta V using a traditional fully propulsive maneuver, leaving less mass for payload during the mission launch. Aerocapture can reduce the propulsion needs by dissipating energy in the sizable atmosphere of Uranus without a significant mass increase due to the need for an aeroshell. One can use the mass savings achieved using the aerocapture to reduce the launch vehicle requirements. In addition, one can also have additional science instruments on the orbiter or create a robust instrumentation suite on an atmospheric probe that can significantly increase the science outcome of the Uranus exploration mission. Furthermore, since aerocapture performance is relatively insensitive to increases in hyperbolic excess velocity, one can design the interplanetary trajectory to arrive at Uranus faster, reducing the interplanetary transit time and operations cost. All these savings, achieved using aerocapture, could help fit a larger class mission, such as the Uranus mission within a smaller capital, e.g., a Flagship-class orbiter mission in a New Frontiers class capital. Summary: This talk will provide an overview of how aerocapture can enable the Uranus exploration mission. Specifically, this talk will discuss the latest advancements made in the Uranus aerocapture study, such as investigating interplanetary trajectories with higher hyperbolic approach velocities and their implications on the aero heating and the TPS design, incorporating FNPAG (an advanced numerical-predictor guidance) and comparison of multiple navigation approaches. In addition, this talk will focus on mechanical design that can house more than one atmospheric probe and the six degrees of freedom simulation of aerocapture at Uranus. Findings from a recent NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)-funded activity studying the aerocapture as an enabling technology for a Uranus orbiter will be presented. Using the science payload recommended by the Decadal Survey for Uranus exploration, this work shows many improvements over the baseline fully-propulsive mission. These improvements include a shorter cruise phase, flexibility in launch opportunities late into the 2030s while reaching Uranus before the 2050 equinox for the desired science opportunities, and lower propellant mass needs. This talk will highlight how aerocapture can be utilized for Uranus science orbit insertion using a lower-risk, heritage entry vehicle configuration used extensively as a Mars entry, descent, and landing vehicle. Furthermore, this talk will explore how the demonstration of aerocapture at Earth can benefit the aerocapture-enabled Uranus mission.

Aerocapture↗

NASA NTRS2024

Platte River Basin Water Resources II: Predicting Land Cover Change in the Platte River Basin to Select Wetland Protection Sites Vulnerable to Urban Encroachment

The Platte River Basin (PRB) represents a critical dynamic ecosystem where wetlands play a pivotal role as essential habitats for local and migratory birds, as well as various flora and fauna. It also provides many crucial ecosystem services that directly and indirectly benefit human welfare. However, it is threatened by anthropogenic activity, climate change, and urbanization. Our team partnered with Audubon Great Plains, the regional office of a national non-profit organization (NGO), to analyze the future potential development of the region and its potential impact on the wetlands. We utilized remotely sensed data, such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Suomi National Polar Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), as well as NASA Socioeconomic Data and Application Center (SEDAC) data, to simulate urban growth potential up to 2050 using the open-source model FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model. Our results for two proposed scenarios (all wetlands are protected, and no wetlands are protected) revealed that at least 56 counties out of 81 in the PRB would experience growth by the year 2050. The results for the first scenario show that there will be no loss of wetlands in the future. However, the results for the second scenario indicate a basin-wide reduction of 43.22 square kilometers (0.58%) in wetland areas, leading to a significant loss of bird habitat, critical for conservation. The results will help Audubon Great Plains' Urban Woods and Prairies Initiative to lead awareness workshops for communities about wetland protection and to form impactful conservation strategies.

FUTURES↗