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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

QUIC-Fire: 3D Fire-Atmosphere Feedback Model for Wildland Fire Management

Los Alamos National Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, and Tall Timbers Research Station developed QUIC-Fire, the first laptop-capable, real-time wildland fire prediction software that captures the critical influences of 3D vegetation structure, interactions between multiple fires, variable winds, and complex topography at meter-scale resolutions. Prescribed burns are needed to prevent catastrophic wildfires in the U.S. QUIC-Fire transforms a prescribed fire manager’s ability to assess risk, optimize fuel treatments, and plan prescribed burns. Los Alamos, U.S. Forest Service, Tall Timbers Research Station, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Spatial Information Group, and Applied Interagency Prescribed Training Center have used QUIC-Fire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health

Increased Exposure to Extreme Events Key Finding 1: Health impacts associated with climate-related changes in exposure to extreme events include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health[High Confidence]. Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding related to extreme precipitation and hurricanes [Medium Confidence].Disruption of Essential Infrastructure Key Finding 2: Many types of extreme events related to climate change cause disruption of infrastructure, including power, water, transportation, and communication systems, that are essential to maintaining access to health care and emergency response services and safeguarding human health [High Confidence].Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding Key Finding 3: Coastal populations with greater vulnerability to health impacts from coastal flooding include persons with disabilities or other access and functional needs, certain populations of color, older adults, pregnant women and children, low-income populations, and some occupational groups [High Confidence].Climate change will increase exposure risk to coastal flooding due to increases in extreme precipitation and in hurricane intensity and rainfall rates, as well as sea level rise and the resulting increases in storm surge.

floods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Grid Resiliency using Hydro-based Microgrids During Wildfires

The primary objective of this project is to assess the techno-economic viability of hydropower resources with supplementary investments, including microgrid controllers, storage solutions, load banks, additional generation like diesel generators, communication links, and transmission infrastructure. The aim is to enable these systems to operate autonomously (in islanded mode) and ensure grid resiliency during and after wildfire events. The project seeks to establish a comprehensive framework for setting up hydropower-based microgrids, from risk estimation to final investment decisions. These microgrids can provide critical support during emergencies and offer additional grid stability and revenue opportunities during regular operations and other system contingencies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Burn parameters affect PAH emissions at conditions relevant for prescribed fires

Wildfire smoke is a health hazard as it contains carcinogenic volatile compounds and fine particulate matter. In particular, exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is a major concern, since these compounds have been recognized as important contributors to the overall carcinogenic risk. In this work, gas and particle-phase PAH emissions from combustion of Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus) were quantified using time-of-flight mass spectrometry over a range of burn conditions representative of wildfires and prescribed fires, including fuel moisture, heat flux, and oxygen concentration. We found that changing the burn environment lead to a variability of up to 77% in phenanthrene/anthracene emissions. This could explain a large part of the variability in PAH emission factors from biomass combustion reported in the literature. Here, we found that optimal conditions for fuel moisture content of 20–30%, sample heat load of 60 - 70 kW m -2 , and oxygen concentrations of 5–15% can significantly reduce the emissions of heavy molar weight PAHs. Our analysis showed that the relative carcinogenic risk from PAH exposure can be reduced by more than 50% under optimal conditions. In light of the increasing use of prescribed fire for forest management, the relationship between emissions and burn conditions that we have established provides a guidance for assessing the expected health impact from prescription burns, and can inform strategies to reduce PAH emissions from prescribed fire activities.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Individual Tree Mortality in the Sierra Nevada Using Lidar and Multispectral Reflectance Data

Widespread tree mortality events occur during periods of severe drought in temperate conifer forests and are expected to become more frequent in many areas due to climate change. Improved mapping of individual tree mortality is needed to identify risk factors and design effective conservation strategies. In this study, we used National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) lidar and multispectral reflectance airborne observations to map individual tree mortality over a 160 km 2 area during and after the 2012–2016 drought for two sites in California's Sierra National Forest. We used NEON lidar to derive tree locations and crown perimeters and multispectral data to map tree mortality for more than 1 million trees. We found that 25.4% of the trees in our study area died between 2013 and 2017, with considerably higher mortality at the lower-elevation Soaproot Saddle site. Between 2017 and 2019, an additional 2.0%–2.8% of the trees died each year. Two wildfires in 2020 and 2021 increased tree mortality within burned area perimeters by 49%–89% between 2019 and 2021. Consistent with previous work, we found that tree mortality risk increased as a function of tree height. Tree mortality was positively associated with distance from rivers, trees per hectare, and decreasing slope at the lower elevation site. In contrast, increasing slope was positively associated with tree mortality at the higher elevation site. Our approach and dataset provide a means to study the combined effects of drought and wildfire on tree mortality and may improve projections of forest resilience under a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Acute wood smoke exposure is associated with cell-specific hippocampal transcriptomic responses in an accelerated ovarian failure mouse model

Background Wildfire events are increasing in frequency and intensity, and aging individuals demonstrate heightened biological susceptibility to air pollution exposures including increased risk of neurological sequelae. Declining ovarian hormones levels that occur with aging in females along with associated systemic physiological and inflammatory changes may contribute to increased cerebral vulnerability to air pollution, representing a potential but underexplored mechanism. Menopause and the menopausal transition represent a period of profound physiological change that affects cardiovascular, neurological, and immune health. Methods We tested whether peri-menopausal–like hormonal status amplifies hippocampal responses to acute wood smoke (WS) using an ovary-intact, 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide (VCD) model of moderate accelerated ovarian failure (AOF) in female C57BL/6 mice. Animals were exposed to HEPA-filtered air (FA) or WS for 4 h/day over 2 consecutive days (∼0.5 mg/m³). Exposure characterization confirmed a complex mixture of combustion products with significant levels of both trace metals and gas release during WS exposure. Results Spatial transcriptomics (10x Visium; n = 4 sections/group) with automated cell-type annotation identified astrocytes, GABAergic and glutamatergic neurons, oligodendrocytes, revealed cell type-specific transcriptional alterations following WS exposure. Distinct transcriptional patterns were observed across all identified neuronal and glial cell populations. Conclusion Together, these findings define a cell-type specific transcriptomic framework describing how WS exposure and ovarian hormone decline interact to influence hippocampal responses and identify potential cellular pathways relevant to hippocampal vulnerability.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
NASA NTRS2022

Compound Effects of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Issues in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5,to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle(2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21stcentury. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

Tigris-Euphrates headwater↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning and artificial intelligence for wildfire prediction

Wildfire ignition, intensity, and spread rates are tightly linked with water cycle extremes. The science of wildfire prediction has traditionally encompassed the use of physical and empirical models to quantify the direction and speed of fire spread, plume injection and fire-aerosol impacts on atmospheric composition, predictions of fire season severity on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales, and assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of fire risk across landscapes. Together with expanding observation networks, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to revolutionize the application of such models for fire science, saving lives, protecting critical infrastructure, and providing more accurate estimates of wildfire-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Marin County Wildland Fires: Examining Fuel Load and Land Cover Change to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, CA

Heightened occurrence of severe wildfires in the Western United States is increasing the need to better understand regions of high potential wildfire severity and develop methodologies for identifying the best locations for fuels reduction and active wildfire suppression, especially in populated regions such as Marin County, California. Marin County, located in the San Francisco Bay Area, has had significant development in the wildland-urban interface and periods of highly wildfire-prone conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with Fire Foundry (a Marin-based fire service workforce development program) and the Marin County Fire Department to develop models to assist with fire management. Using data from Sentinel-2A, PlanetScope, ECOSTRESS, a county-wide LiDAR mapping effort, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), our team developed a number of input data layers for three different models to evaluate wildfire severity. One model performed a suitability analysis with weights based on scientific literature; another model utilized a U-Net Convolutional Neural Network trained on previous fires in Marin and neighboring Sonoma County to predict the difference normalized burn severity; and the third inputted data layers into the FlamMap tool that outputs risk categories. We compared model outputs and performed a weighted overlay analysis to identify specific locations where a fireline could be constructed to interrupt the progress of an active fire. These tools will assist partners in preparing for and managing active wildfire situations.

Remote sensing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale for post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of fire impacts on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify wildfire impacts on runoff generation. We consider the vegetation and soil disturbances as the primary contributors to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty and consider model sensitivity, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We evaluated the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration. Analysis of two events in central California shows that 1) the LAI assimilation has a greater impact on water balance; and 2) the soil scheme captures a range of outcomes, with substantial impacts on surface runoff for some ensemble members, which could affect flood potential.

Timothy M Lahmers↗
NASA NTRS2025

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale of post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of the impacts of fire on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify the impacts of wildfire on runoff generation. We consider the disturbances in the vegetation and soil as the two main factors contributing to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We consider the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration for two case studies. These case studies demonstrate the general applicability of hydrophobicity formulation to serve as a guideline for exploring the range of hydrologic responses post-fire.

Fire Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning for Idaho National Laboratory

Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) mission is to discover, demonstrate, and secure innovative nuclear energy solutions, other clean energy options, and critical infrastructure. This INL’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) was developed to enable and sustain that mission while ensuring the viability of operations considering expected climate change impacts. The VARP was developed according to the narrative requirements from the “Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning Guidance, Version 1.2” document issued in February 2022. A prescribed process was used to identify mission-critical systems and components, determine historical and expected climate impacts, and develop resilient solutions. Experts from across INL, including operations staff, researchers, and climate scientists supplied input to the process. Analyses of climate modeling sources revealed that under scenarios of higher and lower greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5), INL anticipates an increase in climate hazards, including drought, heat waves, wildfire, and precipitation. Increased frequency and duration of climatic hazards forecasts high impacts on certain mission-critical asset and infrastructure types. Utilizing the VARP Risk Assessment Tool, projected high climate hazard impacts across multiple asset and infrastructure types at the INL include energy generation and distribution systems, Site buildings, specialized or mission-critical equipment, and transportation and fleet infrastructure. Some of these mission-critical asset and infrastructure types maintain high adaptive capacity to climatic changes; however, others may need additional adaptive capacity to withstand increased frequency and duration of climate hazards. INL identified close to 300 resilient solutions that were consolidated into 11 solution categories to be tracked in the Department of Energy Sustainability Dashboard. The identified solutions are a starting point for future project development and analysis. These data are intended to inform decision makers on climate issues and potential solutions across INL and associated communities. The VARP is not intended to be a budget tool or project decision document on its own, but rather one of many tools used by decision makers to establish resilient priorities. This initial document provides the framework and foundation to resilient solutions. In the coming years, each solution needs to be fully developed, costed, and prioritized based on mission-critical risk and funding priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Abstract The 2015 Paris Agreement led to a number of studies that assessed the impact of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increases in global temperature over preindustrial levels. However, those assessments have not actively investigated the impact of these levels of warming on fire weather. In view of a recent series of high-profile wildfire events worldwide, we access fire weather sensitivity based on a set of multi-model large ensemble climate simulations for these low-emission scenarios. The results indicate that the half degree difference between these two thresholds may lead to a significantly increased hazard of wildfire in certain parts of the world, particularly the Amazon, African savanna and Mediterranean. Although further experiments focused on human land use are needed to depict future fire activity, considering that rising temperatures are the most influential factor in augmenting the danger of fire weather, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would alleviate some risk in these parts of the world.

Son, Rackhun (ORCID:000000023366495X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prospects for silvicultural enhancement of fire resistance in mesic westside forests of the Pacific Northwest

Increasing wildfire activity in mesic, temperate Pacific Northwest forests west of the Cascade Range crest has stimulated interest in understanding whether alternative forest management practices could reduce risk of stand-replacing fire. To explore how management can enhance fire resistance in these forests and assess tradeoffs among resistance enhancement, carbon sequestration and storage, and economic returns, we conducted 40-year simulations of stand development with BioSum, a framework for conducting landscape analysis with the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), utilizing a statistically representative and spatially balanced sample of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots. Simulation outcomes under business-as-usual silviculture were contrasted with fire-aware silviculture, and treatment optimization logic was developed and applied to represent landscape-scale outcomes under business-as-usual and fire-focused management scenarios. Simulation results indicate that fire-aware prescriptions and fire-focused management can meaningfully enhance stand- and landscape-scale fire resistance of westside forests under less than extreme fire weather, but at the cost of lower economic returns and reduced net carbon storage and sequestration over the 40-year analysis window. Shifting from business-as-usual regeneration harvests with short rotations to fire-aware, episodic selection harvest improved fire resistance the most, especially in young privately-owned forests, and with only modest tradeoffs in carbon and economic outcomes. While fire-aware treatments generally reduced net present value from forest operations over business-as-usual, most treatments still generated positive net present value and could be implemented without subsidy. Fire-aware prescriptions that removed and utilized non-merchantable harvest residues instead of burning them, via either pile or broadcast burning, partially mitigated carbon emissions associated with fire-aware treatments, with about the same improvement in fire resistance. Given the currently limited institutional and financial capacity to implement fire resistance enhancing treatments at scale, the insights from this analysis may aid managers seeking to elevate fire resistance to prioritize where and how to manage.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Restoring Homes After Wildfires, Interviews with Practitioners about Common Cleanup Approaches and Knowledge Gaps

This document summarizes the key themes from our interviews with 10 remediation companies regarding common approaches used to remove odor and contaminants from homes impacted by fire and smoke damage Remediation companies are in agreement that thorough cleaning is the first step. Cleaning and removing contaminants from homes impacted by wildfires may be sufficient to eliminate smoke odor, which is the most important step when it comes to reducing exposure to any residues that may pose health risks to residents. Remediation companies differ in their approaches to addressing odors, such as using ozone generators, hydroxyl generators, chlorine dioxide treatment, thermal fogging and applying sealants. Their opinions of what works and why differs. There is little consensus on efficacy, safety, or application protocols. For example, some view ozone very favorably, while others would prefer using other methods. The influence of insurance companies in their coverage for some methods but not others also impact the decision about the approaches used. Remediation companies differ in their view on laboratory testing for contaminants, which may be partly influenced by insurance companies as well.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SpaceNet 8 - The Detection of Flooded Roads and Buildings

The frequency and intensity of natural disasters (i.e. wildfires, storms, floods) has increased over recent decades. Extreme weather can often be linked to climate change, and human population expansion and urbanization have led to a growing risk. In particular floods due to large amounts of rainfall are of rising severity and are causing loss of life, destruction of buildings and infrastructure, erosion of arable land, and environmental hazards around the world. Expanding urbanization along rivers and creeks often includes opening flood plains for building construction and river straightening and dredging speeding up the flow of water. In a flood event, rapid response is essential which requires knowledge which buildings are susceptible to flooding and which roads are still accessible. To this aim, SpaceNet 8 is the first remote sensing machine learning training dataset combining building footprint detection, road network extraction, and flood detection covering 850km 2, including 32k buildings and 1,300km roads of which 13% and 15% are flooded, respectively.

Arndt, Jacob↗
NASA NTRS2017

NASA Earth Observations Informing Energy Management Decision Making

The Energy Sector is experiencing increasing impacts from severe weather and shifting climatic trends, as well as facing a changing political climate, adding uncertainty for stakeholders as they make short- and long-term planning investments. Climate changes such as prolonged extreme heat and drought (leading to wildfire spread, for example), sea level rise, and extreme storms are changing the ways that utilities operate. Energy infrastructure located in coastal or flood-prone areas faces inundation risks, such as damage to energy facilities. The use of renewable energy resources is increasing, requiring more information about their intermittency and spatial patterns. In light of these challenges, public and private stakeholders have collaborated to identify potential data sources, tools, and programmatic ideas. For example, utilities across the country are using cutting-edge technology and data to plan for and adapt to these changes. In the Federal Government, NASA has invested in preliminary work to identify needs and opportunities for satellite data in energy sector application, and the Department of Energy has similarly brought together stakeholders to understand the landscape of climate vulnerability and resilience for utilities and others. However, have these efforts improved community-scale resilience and adaptation efforts? Further, some communities are more vulnerable to climate change and infrastructure impacts than others. This session has two goals. First, panelists seek to share existing and ongoing efforts related to energy management. Second, the session seeks to engage with attendees via group knowledge exchange to connect national energy management efforts to local practice for increased community resilience.

Eckman, Richard↗