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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Range shifts in a foundation sedge potentially induce large Arctic ecosystem carbon losses and gains

Foundation species have disproportionately large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. As a result, future changes to their distribution may be important determinants of ecosystem carbon (C) cycling in a warmer world. We assessed the role of a foundation tussock sedge (Eriophorum vaginatum) as a climatically vulnerable C stock using field data, a machine learning ecological niche model, and an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). Field data indicated that tussock density has decreased by ~0.97 tussocks per m2 over the past ~38 years on Alaska's North Slope from ~1981 to 2019. This declining trend is concerning because tussocks are a large Arctic C stock, which enhances soil organic layer C stocks by 6.9% on average and represents 745 Tg C across our study area. By 2100, we project that changes in tussock density may decrease the tussock C stock by 41% in regions where tussocks are currently abundant (e.g. -0.8 tussocks per m2 and -85 Tg C on the North Slope) and may increase the tussock C stock by 46% in regions where tussocks are currently scarce (e.g. +0.9 tussocks per m2 and +81 Tg C on Victoria Island). These climate-induced changes to the tussock C stock were comparable to, but sometimes opposite in sign, to vegetation C stock changes predicted by an ensemble of TBMs. Our results illustrate the important role of tussocks as a foundation species in determining future Arctic C stocks and highlight the need for better representation of this species in TBMs..

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review

Abstract To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of irradiation embrittlement effect on fatigue life of a pressurized-water reactor pressure vessel using the fracture toughness master curve approach

The reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is a critical structural component in pressurized-water reactors, and it is designed to withstand extreme conditions, such as high pressures, elevated temperatures, and prolonged radiation exposure. Ensuring RPV integrity is essential for the safe and reliable long-term operation of nuclear power plants, especially as aging mechanisms such as fatigue and irradiation embrittlement pose increased risks. Fatigue, caused by cyclic thermal and mechanical loading, can lead to crack initiation in localized high-stress regions. Simultaneously, neutron irradiation, particularly in the beltline region, progressively reduces fracture toughness, increasing susceptibility to brittle fracture. These combined effects of fatigue and irradiation embrittlement potentially impact the RPV structural integrity, necessitating fitness-for-service assessments. This study applies the fracture toughness master curve approach to evaluate the impact of irradiation embrittlement on RPV fatigue life. A coupled thermo-mechanical stress analysis identifies critical stress locations under normal service transients, pinpointing regions most vulnerable to fatigue crack initiation and growth. Stress intensity factors for postulated flaws at these locations are calculated, enabling an assessment of fatigue life under irradiated and unirradiated conditions. The results indicate that neutron irradiation embrittlement accelerates the conditions in which a critical crack can form and lead to failure, particularly at lower temperatures. The failure occurs where reduced fracture toughness limits the material’s resistance to crack growth. Axial cracks at nozzle corners are the most life limiting without irradiation, while circumferential cracks demonstrate longer fatigue lives. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating irradiation effects into fatigue life predictions to ensure the long-term structural integrity of RPVs.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

ResDesign: Resilient by Design Platform for CPS Assessment and Validation

ResDesign project has developed integrated capabilities to help cyber physical system modelers and analysts to evaluate vulnerabilities and resilience of such systems using co-simulation-based attack testbed, graph-based visualization and monitoring tool, and Bayesian optimization-based co-design capability. The project demonstrates a collection of attack scenarios and use cases in an integrated software environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergency department visits in California associated with wildfire PM 2.5 : differing risk across individuals and communities

The threats to human health from wildfires and wildfire smoke (WFS) in the United States (US) are increasing due to continued climate change. A growing body of literature has documented important adverse health effects of WFS exposure, but there is insufficient evidence regarding how risk related to WFS exposure varies across individual or community level characteristics. To address this evidence gap, we utilized a large nationwide database of healthcare utilization claims for emergency department (ED) visits in California across multiple wildfire seasons (May through November, 2012–2019) and quantified the health impacts of fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) air pollution attributable to WFS, overall and among subgroups of the population. We aggregated daily counts of ED visits to the level of the Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) and used a time-stratified case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the association between WFS and relative risk of ED visits. We further assessed how the association with WFS varied across subgroups defined by age, race, social vulnerability, and residential air conditioning (AC) prevalence. Over a 7 day period, PM 2.5 from WFS was associated with elevated risk of ED visits for all causes (1.04% (0.32%, 1.71%)), non-accidental causes (2.93% (2.16%, 3.70%)), and respiratory disease (15.17% (12.86%, 17.52%)), but not with ED visits for cardiovascular diseases (1.06% (–1.88%, 4.08%)). Analysis across subgroups revealed potential differences in susceptibility by age, race, and AC prevalence, but not across subgroups defined by ZCTA-level Social Vulnerability Index scores. These results suggest that PM 2.5 from WFS is associated with higher rates of all cause, non-accidental, and respiratory ED visits with important heterogeneity across certain subgroups. Notably, lower availability of residential AC was associated with higher health risks related to wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strategic Energy Plan: City of Key West, Florida

This Strategic Energy Plan for the city of Key West, Florida—developed through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP)—outlines a comprehensive strategy to advance the city’s energy vision: to improve energy efficiency and independence using local energy resources to foster long-term resilience. To guide this effort, the plan is structured around four focus areas: • Energy efficiency: Reduce overall energy consumption and utility costs across municipal, residential, and commercial buildings. • Local energy generation: Increase the share of energy produced from local sources to enhance energy independence. • Resilience: Strengthen critical infrastructure and community preparedness for flooding, hurricanes, and other natural weather hazards. • Electric transportation: Support the addition of new electric vehicles (EVs) and develop reliable charging infrastructure to reduce reliance on imported fuels. ETIPP provides strategic energy planning, technical assistance, and direct funding to U.S. coastal, remote, and island communities to improve energy resilience. Key West was part of ETIPP’s fourth cohort. As a low-lying island community vulnerable to infrastructure damage due to natural weather hazards, Key West seeks to reduce its dependence on external energy and build long-term sustainability. The Strategic Energy Plan identifies specific challenges, sets clear goals, and proposes actionable opportunities with implementation timelines and key stakeholders. A baseline assessment reveals significant energy consumption in both city-owned and residential/commercial buildings, limited local energy generation, and an early-stage EV market with vulnerable charging infrastructure. The proposed solutions emphasize a multifaceted approach, leveraging both established and innovative technologies, while addressing financial, technical, and community engagement challenges. The baseline assessment provided a snapshot of current energy conditions in Key West, evidencing key challenges and opportunities across the city’s energy priorities. Building on the baseline assessment and extensive input from city staff, local stakeholders, and community partners, a set of targeted opportunities was identified to address Key West’s energy goals. Each was evaluated in terms of its potential benefits, key implementation steps, associated challenges and mitigation strategies, and the city departments and stakeholders best positioned to lead or support progress.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grid Resilience Analysis on Geothermal District Heating and Cooling Implementation Alongside Four Existing Oil and Gas Wells in Tuttle, Oklahoma: Preprint

This study builds on the existing techno-economic and environmental life cycle assessments performed for a geothermal district heating and cooling system implementation in Tuttle Oklahoma with four existing oil and gas wells. Its resilience in meeting the peak annual heating and cooling loads of the district assuming a temporary disconnection from the electrical grid is assessed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Attributes of resilience and qualitative criteria established by Kolker et al. (2022) for geothermal district heating systems are applied to the proposed case to highlight its vulnerabilities. Results indicate that increasing the redundancy and diversity in the physical configuration of the distributional piping can considerably increase the system’s resilience. A quantitative assessment executed via the REopt tool predicts that the ancillary electricity required to power the geothermal system’s heating and cooling can be met by an onsite emergency diesel generator during times of grid outages for over 28 days.

district heating and cooling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Grid Resilience Analysis on Geothermal District Heating and Cooling Implementation Alongside Four Existing Oil and Gas Wells in Tuttle, Oklahoma

This study builds on the existing techno economic and environmental life cycle assessments performed for a geothermal district heating and cooling system implementation in Tuttle Oklahoma with four existing oil and gas wells. Its resilience in meeting the peak annual heating and cooling loads of the district assuming a temporary disconnection from the electrical grid is assessed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Attributes of resilience and qualitative criteria established by Kolker et al. (2022) for geothermal district heating systems are applied to the proposed case to highlight its vulnerabilities. Results indicate that increasing the redundancy and diversity in the physical configuration of the distributional piping can considerably increase the system's resilience. A quantitative assessment executed via the REopt tool predicts that the ancillary electricity required to power the geothermal system's heating and cooling can be met by an onsite emergency diesel generator during times of grid outages for over 28 days.

district heating and cooling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Considerations for Hydrogen Infrastructure in Airport Environments

This report explores key cybersecurity concerns and best practices within environments that serve as reference points for the development of hydrogen fueling infrastructure for aviation. This cybersecurity analysis leverages prior NREL studies: 1) hydrogen fueling station component validation to identify vulnerabilities and failure events documented in physical equipment, and 2) electric aircraft charging infrastructure analysis to explore primary cybersecurity vulnerabilities. It reviews the criticality of digitized technologies in sustaining hydrogen fuel production, storage, and fueling systems, noting cybersecurity concerns that are universal to power systems and industrial control systems in general. In considering cybersecurity vulnerabilities within a future landscape of hydrogen energy for aviation applications, a reference architecture was intended to reveal the points of connection between assets and the potential sensors that are vulnerable to manipulation in the event of compromised access or communication within a SCADA system. A generalized reference architecture can help stakeholders, engineers, or strategists understand connections, criticalities, and standard practices when it comes to designing and planning for new systems. There are several gaps to account for in assessing the future of hydrogen production, storage, and fueling for aviation. Engaging stakeholders, including aircraft manufacturers, electric utilities, site property owners, and local communities, will inform decision-making around site structure, operations, and resources for future hydrogen fueling infrastructure to understand operational needs and cybersecurity awareness. Cybersecurity mitigation strategy must consider physical attack vectors that emerge with the integration of hydrogen systems into existing airport security requirements. The cybersecurity risk assessment contained in this report is an entry point into potential future granular-level analyses to be conducted as part of hazard and risk assessments for safe aviation hydrogen infrastructure, determining how the scale of hydrogen fuel infrastructure for aviation impacts the volume of cyber attack vectors, and what, if any, are the vulnerabilities associated with different types of on-board hydrogen systems. In this nascent development phase, assessing how best to integrate cybersecurity practices into an evolving U.S. aviation landscape provides critical insights into building increased awareness and stakeholder engagement to support a cyber-resilient infrastructure.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sustainability assessment of alternative jet fuel for the U.S. Department of Defense

The United States Department of Defense (DoD) is considering replacing the 2.8 billion gallons of petroleum jet fuel consumed within the continental United States (CONUS) annually with alternative jet fuels to reduce vulnerability to price and supply fluctuations and improve sustainability. We evaluate the feasibility of replacing DoD CONUS jet fuel with alternative jet fuel from domestic feedstocks and assess the cost, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy balance, land, water, and fertilizer impacts of nine alternative jet fuel pathways. The feedstocks include terrestrial crops (soy, corn, wood, and grass), marine microalgae, and by-products (forestry residue, municipal solid waste, and waste oil) converted by extraction, fermentation, or thermo-chemical conversion, paired with upgrading steps. We found that domestic biomass feedstocks can meet the DoD CONUS jet fuel demand without significantly affecting food supply. Alternative pathways cost more than petroleum jet fuel ($0.78 l -1 and emitting 89 g CO 2 equivalent (CO 2e ) MJ -1 ), but many lowered GHG emissions. The forestry residue and waste oil pathways yielded the lowest costs ($\$0.92$ and $\$0.82$ l -1 , respectively), decreased emissions (23 and 35 g CO 2 e MJ -1 , respectively), and had negligible effects on land, water, and fertilizer resources. Finally, tradeoffs among sustainability metrics are further explored with a sensitivity analysis and by evaluating carbon-cost scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols’ climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols’ complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society’s ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

I Can't Patch My OT Systems! A Look at CISA's KEVC Workarounds & Mitigations for OT

We examine the state of publicly available information about known exploitable vulnerabilities applicable to operational technology (OT) environments. Specifically, we analyze the Known Exploitable Vulnerabilities Catalog (KEVC) maintained by the US Department of Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) to assess whether currently available data is sufficient for effective and reliable remediation in OT settings. Our team analyzed all KEVC entries through July 2025 to determine the extent to which OT environments can rely on existing remediation recommendations. We found that although most entries in the KEVC could affect OT environments, only 13% include vendor workarounds or mitigations as alternatives to patching. This paper also examines the feasibility of developing such alternatives based on vulnerability and exploit characteristics, and we present early evidence of success with this approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part II: Risk Assessment

This comprehensive report explores the intricate interplay through “sector coupling” between the Transportation Sector, Energy Sector, and the critical infrastructure challenges faced by the United States. Aligned with the ambitious federal goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the report analyzes the present vulnerabilities in the fossil fuel supply chain, highlighting instances where the dependence on this industry has been susceptible to local and global disruptions. With a focus on risk assessment, this report establishes a framework to compare the fossil fuel-based transportation sector with the burgeoning electrified sector, considering the evolving technologies in electric vehicles (EVs) and the nascent charging infrastructure. This study delves into the historical reliability of fossil fuel-based transportation and identifies opportunities for strengthening sector coupling between transportation and the electric sector. Assessments of the gasoline-diesel supply chain provide insights into both opportunities and threats, offering a roadmap for creating a more reliable and resilient electrified transportation system. We modeled sectoral coupling scenarios for the current internal combustion engine (ICE)-based and future EV-dominant landscapes, leveraging qualitative sector attributes to identify relative strengths and weaknesses in Part 1 of the report. In this report (Part 2) we continue to understand the role of the electricity sector on transportation and develop a semi-quantitative methodology is employed to evaluate and compare the risks associated with the fossil fueled and electric transportation sector during emergency scenarios, drawing from real-world events like hurricanes and geopolitical disruptions. Different operational scenarios for the fossil fuel and electrified sectors have been developed to understand the risks associated with them. This report concludes with recommendations for the architectural designs of electric charging infrastructure, underlining the need for informed decisions in the transition towards a sustainable and resilient transportation future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving CLM5.0 Biomass and Carbon Exchange Across the Western United States Using a Data Assimilation System

The Western United States is dominated by natural lands that play a critical role for carbon balance, water quality, and timber reserves. This region is also particularly vulnerable to forest mortality from drought, insect attack, and wildfires, thus requiring constant monitoring to assess ecosystem health. Carbon monitoring techniques are challenged by the complex mountainous terrain, thus there is an opportunity for data assimilation systems that combine land surface models and satellite-derived observations to provide improved carbon monitoring. Here, we use the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to adjust the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) with remotely sensed observations of leaf area and above-ground biomass. The adjusted simulation significantly reduced the above-ground biomass and leaf area, leading to a reduction in both photosynthesis and respiration fluxes. The reduction in the carbon fluxes mostly offset, thus both the adjusted and free simulation projected a weak carbon sink to the land. This result differed from a separate observation-constrained model (FLUXCOM) that projected strong carbon uptake to the land. Simulation diagnostics suggested water limitation had an important influence upon the magnitude and spatial pattern of carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We recommend that additional observations important for water cycling (e.g., snow water equivalent, land surface temperature) be included to improve the veracity of the spatial pattern in carbon uptake. Furthermore, the assimilation system should be enhanced to maximize the number of the simulated state variables that are adjusted, especially those related to the recommended observed quantities including water cycling and soil carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a model comparison

Increasing renewable energy use is an essential strategy for mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of renewable energy to climatic conditions means that the energy system’s vulnerability to climate change can also become larger. In this research, we used two integrated assessment models and data from four climate models to analyse climate change impacts on primary energy use at a global and regional scale under a low-level (RCP2.6) and a medium-level (RCP6.0) climate change scenario. The impacts are analysed on the energy system focusing on four renewable sources (wind, solar, hydropower, and biomass). Globally, small climate impacts on renewable primary energy use are found in both models (5% for RCP2.6 and 6% for RCP6.0). These impacts lead to a decrease in the use of fossil sources for most regions, especially for North America and Europe under the RCP60 scenario. Overall, IMAGE and GCAM provide a similar signal impact response for most regions. E.g. in Asia (excluding China and India), climate change induces an increase in wind and hydropower use under the RCP6.0 scenarios; however, for India, a decrease in solar energy use can be expected under both scenarios and models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vind: A Blockchain-Enabled Supply Chain Provenance Framework for Energy Delivery Systems

Enterprise-level energy delivery systems (EDSs) depend on different software or hardware vendors to achieve operational efficiency. Critical components of these systems are typically manufactured and integrated by overseas suppliers, which expands the attack surface to adversaries with additional opportunities to infiltrate into EDSs. Due to this reason, the risk management of the EDS supply chain is crucial to ensure that we are knowledgeable about the vulnerabilities in software and hardware components that comprise any critical part, quantifiable risk metrics to assess the severity and exploitability of the attack, and provide remediation solutions that can influence a prioritized mitigation plan. There is a need to realize cyber supply chain risk management for industrial control systems’ hardware, software, and computing and networking services associated with bulk electric system (BES) operations. This article proposes a blockchain-based cyber supply chain provenance platform (“Vind”) for EDSs to realize data provenance in a cyber supply chain ecosystem.

Bandara, Eranga↗