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NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) and Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) Social Network and Community of Practice

The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) and Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) have been planned and funded by the NASA Earth Science Division. Both programs have a focus on engaging stakeholders and developing science useful for decision making. The resulting programs have funded significant scientific output and advancements in understanding how satellite remote sensing observations can be used to not just study how the Earth is changing, but also create data products that are of high utility to stakeholders and decisions makers. In this paper we focus on documenting thematic diversity of research themes and methods used, and how the CMS and ABoVE themes are related. We do this through developing a Correlated Topic Model on the 521 papers produced by the two programs and plotting the results in a network diagram. Through analysis of the themes in these papers, we document the relationships between researchers and institutions participating in CMS and ABoVE programs and the benefits from sustained engagement with stakeholders due to recurring funding. We note an absence of policy engagement in the papers and conclude that funded researchers need to be more ambitious and explicit in drawing the connection between their research and carbon policy implications in order to meet the stated goals of the CMS and ABoVE programs.

Molly E Brown↗

Impacts of the Variability of Ice Types on the Decline of the Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Cover

The observed rapid decline in the Arctic perennial ice cover is one of the most remarkable signal of change in the Arctic region. Updated data now show an even higher rate of decline of 9.8% per decade than the previous report of 8.9% per decade mainly because of abnormally low values in the last 4 years. To gain insights into this decline, the variability of the second year ice, which is the relatively thin component of the perennial ice cover, and other ice types is studied. The perennial ice cover in the 1990s was observed to be highly variable which might have led to higher production of second year ice and may in part explain the observed ice thinning during the period and triggered further decline. The passive microwave signature of second year ice is also studied and results show that while the signature is different from that of the older multiyear ice, it is surprisingly more similar to that of first year ice. This in part explains why previous estimates of the area of multiyear ice during the winter period are considerably lower than the area of the perennial ice cover during the preceding summer. Four distinct clusters representing radiometrically different types have been identified using multi-channel cluster analysis of passive microwave data. Data from two of these clusters, postulated to come from second year and older multiyear ice regions are also shown to have average thicknesses of 2.4 and 4.1 m, respectively, indicating that the passive microwave data may contain some ice thickness information that can be utilized for mass balance studies. The yearly anomaly maps indicate high gains of first year ice cover in the Arctic during the last decade which means higher production of second year ice and fraction of this type in the declining perennial ice cover. While not the only cause, the rapid decline in the perennial ice cover is in part caused by the increasing fractional component of the thinner second year ice cover that is very vulnerable to total melt due to warming in the Arctic, especially in spring.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

The Past and Future Changes in Climate of the Rice-Wheat Cropping Zone in Punjab, Pakistan

Agriculture is ranked top among Pakistan economic sectors vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. The agricultural production system is directly affected by weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall) that are projected to change in future (following increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses). Although Climatic extremes such as drought, floods and heat waves, are expected to increase with detrimental consequences for agriculture and livestock production, yet changes in mean climates also pose challenges to sustainable development. This study presents climate change results for five districts within the major rice-wheat productivity zone of Punjab province in Pakistan. The results are focused on RCP8.5 mid-century (2040-2069) scenarios derived from five global climate models (GCMs) output and the Kharif (June-October) and Rabi (November-April) seasons. Analysis of recent historical weather data of Sialkot and Sheikhupura districts shows an increase in minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures and a large variation in rainfall. This temperature change and variability in rainfall are expected to enhance further as we approach 2050s. The mean maximum temperature is projected to increase by 2-2.5 ºC during the rice growing (Kharif) season and 2.4-2.7ºC during the wheat growing (Rabi) season. Rainfall during the rice growing season is more uncertain, with projections indicating an increase of 25%-35 % in the study region, while a minimal change is expected during the Rabi season. Climax of the rice growing season corresponds with the projected increase in monsoon intensity, leaving no doubt about the crop water demand satisfaction. However, a simultaneous increase in the day and night temperature may affect the growth and development of some critical phenological stages and thus could impact final yield.

Climate Change↗

Quantitative Comparison of Proprietary and Open-Source Georeferencing Tools for Use with Astronaut Photography

The Crew Earth Observations (CEO) Facility within the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit at NASA’s Johnson Space Center supports the acquisition, analysis, and curation of astronaut photography of Earth’s surface and atmosphere. Astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) respond to requests from CEO to acquire imagery of scientific and education targets, to include high profile targets in response to activations from the International Charter for Space & Major Disasters (also known as the International Disaster Charter, or IDC) and NASA’s Disasters Program. CEO facilitates the acquisition of astronaut photography in response to IDC events and delivers georeferenced data products to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for distribution to the disaster community. Using GeoRef, an internal web-based tool developed in collaboration with NASA’s Ames Research Center, CEO generates data packages of georeferenced imagery, uncertainty images for assessing control and tie point accuracy, and metadata documenting raw and processed data. Operational experience with the Georef software identified vulnerabilities to internal code and server errors that can significantly increase time of data production. As such, CEO developed a backup procedure in case the GeoRef software experiences front-end or back-end errors. A system using OSGEO’s open-source QGIS software combined with a semi-automated pipeline using the object-oriented Python language and the Geospatial Abstract Library for generating metadata is quantitatively compared to GeoRef’s data package for quality and productivity. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) provides a standard measurement of data quality as it relates to ground error. Assessing RMSE measurements generated from georeferenced astronaut photographs acquired with different obliquity and focal length offers a comprehensive accuracy assessment of the software’s transformation algorithms. This assessment will indicate the software's ability to produce data products with the least ground-error or highest data quality regarding ground accuracy. In addition, a comparison of the software’s efficiency in generating a data package that includes georeferenced images, metadata, and uncertainty images for measuring tie/ground point error was performed. Initial results, based on the comparison of three nadir-facing astronaut photographs acquired with a 95mm focal length, reveal the QGIS-based system's average RMSE is 2.36 (pixels) suggesting its georectification system produces data products that meet and perhaps improve upon Georef solution's average RMSE of 32.99 (pixels). However, the QGIS system was unable to reproduce two unique Georef data products, uncertainty images for measuring tie and control point errors and a translated unwrapped image. In addition, the Georef software is designed to accept handheld camera pose information from a hardware component (Geosens) scheduled for deployment on the ISS in late 2018; this information is intended to provide increased accuracy and auto-registration capability for astronaut photographs. Future work is expected to determine the QGIS-based georectification system’s potential as an open-source alternative (and operational backup) to Georef for georeferencing the full range of resolutions and viewing angles unique to handheld digital camera imagery in support of ISS disaster response activities.

Jagge, Amy M.↗

Experiences with Extra-Vehicular Activities in Response to Critical ISS Contingencies

The maturation of the International Space Station (ISS) design from the proposed Space Station Freedom to today's current implementation resulted in external hardware redundancy vulnerabilities in the final design. Failure to compensate for or respond to these vulnerabilities could put the ISS in a posture to where it could no longer function as a habitable space station. In the first years of ISS assembly, these responses were to largely be addressed by the continued resupply and Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) capabilities of the Space Shuttle. Even prior to the decision to retire the Space Shuttle, it was realized that ISS needed to have its own capability to be able to rapidly repair or replace external hardware without needing to wait for the next cargo resupply mission. As documented in a previous publicatoin5, in 2006 development was started to baseline Extra- Vehicular Activity (EVA, or spacewalk) procedures to replace hardware components whose failure would expose some of the ISS vulnerabilities should a second failure occur. This development work laid the groundwork for the onboard crews and the ground operations and engineering teams to be ready to replace any of this failed hardware. In 2010, this development work was put to the test when one of these pieces of hardware failed. This paper will provide a brief summary of the planning and processes established in the original Contingency EVA development phase. It will then review how those plans and processes were implemented in 2010, highlighting what went well as well as where there were deficiencies between theory and reality. This paper will show that the original approach and analyses, though sound, were not as thorough as they should have been in the realm of planning for next worse failures, for documenting Programmatic approval of key assumptions, and not pursuing sufficient engineering analysis prior to the failure of the hardware. The paper will further highlight the changes made to the Contingency EVA preparation team structure, approach, goals, and the resources allocated to its work after the 2010 events. Finally, the authors will overview the implementation of these updates in addressing failures onboard the ISS in 2012, 2013, and 2014. The successful use of the updated approaches, and the application of the approaches to other spacewalks, will demonstrate the effectiveness of this additional work and make a case for putting significant time and resources into pre-failure planning and analysis for critical hardware items on human-tended spacecraft.

Van Cise, E. A.↗

Experiences with Extra-Vehicular Activities in Response to Critical ISS Contingencies

The maturation of the International Space Station (ISS) design from the proposed Space Station Freedom to today's current implementation resulted in external hardware redundancy vulnerabilities in the final design. Failure to compensate for or respond to these vulnerabilities could put the ISS in a posture where it could no longer function as a habitable space station. In the first years of ISS assembly, these responses were to largely be addressed by the continued resupply and Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) capabilities of the Space Shuttle. Even prior to the decision to retire the Space Shuttle, it was realized that ISS needed to have its own capability to be able to rapidly repair or replace external hardware without needing to wait for the next cargo resupply mission. As documented in a previous publication, in 2006 development was started to baseline Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA, or spacewalk) procedures to replace hardware components whose failure would expose some of the ISS vulnerabilities should a second failure occur. This development work laid the groundwork for the onboard crews and the ground operations and engineering teams to be ready to replace any of this failed hardware. In 2010, this development work was put to the test when one of these pieces of hardware failed. This paper will provide a brief summary of the planning and processes established in the original Contingency EVA development phase. It will then review how those plans and processes were implemented in 2010, highlighting what went well as well as where there were deficiencies between theory and reality. This paper will show that the original approach and analyses, though sound, were not as thorough as they should have been in the realm of planning for next worse failures, for documenting Programmatic approval of key assumptions, and not pursuing sufficient engineering analysis prior to the failure of the hardware. The paper will further highlight the changes made to the Contingency EVA preparation team structure, approach, goals, and the resources allocated to its work after the 2010 events. Finally, the authors will overview the implementation of these updates in addressing failures onboard the ISS in 2012, 2013, and 2014. The successful use of the updated approaches, and the application of the approaches to other spacewalks, will demonstrate the effectiveness of this additional work and make a case for putting significant time and resources into pre-failure planning and analysis for critical hardware items on human-tended spacecraft.

Van Cise, E. A.↗

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling↗

NPCC4: New York City Climate Risk Information 2022—Observations and Projections

New York City (NYC) faces many challenges in the coming decades due to climate change and its interactions with social vulnerabilities and uneven urban development patterns and processes. This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) report contributes to the Panel’s mandate to advise the city on climate change and provide timely climate risk information that can inform flexible and equitable adaptation pathways that enhance resilience to climate change. This report presents up-to-date scientific information as well as updated sea level rise projections of record. We also present a new methodology related to climate extremes and describe new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. Future work by the Panel should compare the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report with a subset of models to determine the potential impact and relevance of the “hot model” problem. NPCC4 expects to establish new projections-of-record for precipitation and temperature in 2024 based on this comparison and additional analysis. Nevertheless, the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report may be useful for NYC stakeholders in the interim as they rely on the newest generation of global climate models.

NPCC4↗

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗

NASA Manned Launch Vehicle Lightning Protection Development

Historically, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) relied heavily on lightning avoidance to protect launch vehicles and crew from lightning effects. As NASA transitions from the Space Shuttle to the new Constellation family of launch vehicles and spacecraft, NASA engineers are imposing design and construction standards on the spacecraft and launch vehicles to withstand both the direct and indirect effects of lightning. A review of current Space Shuttle lightning constraints and protection methodology will be presented, as well as a historical review of Space Shuttle lightning requirements and design. The Space Shuttle lightning requirements document, NSTS 07636, Lightning Protection, Test and Analysis Requirements, (originally published as document number JSC 07636, Lightning Protection Criteria Document) was developed in response to the Apollo 12 lightning event and other experiences with NASA and the Department of Defense launch vehicles. This document defined the lightning environment, vehicle protection requirements, and design guidelines for meeting the requirements. The criteria developed in JSC 07636 were a precursor to the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) lightning standards. These SAE standards, along with Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) DO-160, Environmental Conditions and Test Procedures for Airborne Equipment, are the basis for the current Constellation lightning design requirements. The development and derivation of these requirements will be presented. As budget and schedule constraints hampered lightning protection design and verification efforts, the Space Shuttle elements waived the design requirements and relied on lightning avoidance in the form of launch commit criteria (LCC) constraints and a catenary wire system for lightning protection at the launch pads. A better understanding of the lightning environment has highlighted the vulnerability of the protection schemes and associated risk to the vehicle, which has resulted in lost launch opportunities and increased expenditures in manpower to assess Space Shuttle vehicle health and safety after lightning events at the launch pad. Because of high-percentage launch availability and long-term on-pad requirements, LCC constraints are no longer considered feasible. The Constellation vehicles must be designed to withstand direct and indirect effects of lightning. A review of the vehicle design and potential concerns will be presented as well as the new catenary lightning protection system for the launch pad. This system is required to protect the Constellation vehicles during launch processing when vehicle lightning effects protection might be compromised by such items as umbilical connections and open access hatches.

McCollum, Matthew B.↗

Alaska Transportation & Infrastructure - Identifying Permafrost Subsidence Using NASA Earth Observations to Pinpoint Road & Infrastructure Vulnerability in Fairbanks, Alaska

A rapidly warming Arctic has compromised the structural integrity of critical infrastructure through accelerated permafrost thaw and thermokarst development underlying these areas. Infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and airports across the state of Alaska are particularly at risk, as permafrost underlies ~85% of the state. However, monitoring the impacts of permafrost thaw on infrastructure is largely limited to in situ observations and frequently identified after the damage is evident. In order to assist transportation and infrastructure decision-makers in Alaska, this project identified and quantified areas of surface subsidence near critical infrastructure. Seasonal interferograms were created using Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and L-band Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) data to identify areas experiencing surface deformation. Additionally, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets were used to validate select interferograms created between 2017 and 2019. Validation of subsidence detection across platforms was performed over a 7x8 sq. kilometer field site for 2017. UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 seasonal deformation returns produced consistent spatial deformation patterns with residual root mean squared errors of 13 and 21 millimeters, respectively. These results suggest that both UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 platforms are capable of detecting surface subsidence. The higher resolution of UAVSAR is better able to resolve localized subsidence features of less than 80 meters, but is limited by temporal resolution.In conjunction, UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 can provide complementary spatial and temporal resolutions for subsidence analysis in the absence of in situ data.

Patrick Saylor↗

Alaska Transportation & Infrastructure Identifying Permafrost Subsidence Using NASA Earth Observations to Pinpoint Road and Infrastructure Vulnerability in Fairbanks, Alaska

A rapidly warming Arctic has compromised the structural integrity of critical infrastructure through accelerated permafrost thaw and thermokarst development underlying these areas. Infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and airports across the state of Alaska are particularly at risk, as permafrost underlies ~85% of the state. However, monitoring the impacts of permafrost thaw on infrastructure is largely limited to in situ observations and frequently identified after the damage is evident. In order to assist transportation and infrastructure decision-makers in Alaska, this project identified and quantified areas of surface subsidence near critical infrastructure. Seasonal interferograms were created using Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and L-band Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) data to identify areas experiencing surface deformation. Additionally, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets were used to validate select interferograms created between 2017 and 2019. Validation of subsidence detection across platforms was performed over a 7x8 sq. kilometer field site for 2017. The strongest relationship in spatial deformation is observed between Sentinel-1 and UAVSAR with a residual root mean square error of 20 mm. These results suggest that both UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 platforms are capable of detecting surface subsidence. The higher resolution of UAVSAR is better able to resolve localized subsidence features of less than 80 meters, but is limited by temporal resolution. In conjunction, UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 can provide complementary spatial and temporal resolutions for subsidence analysis in the absence of in situ data.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

Burst Pressure Failure of Titanium Tanks Damaged by Secondary Plumes from Hypervelocity Impacts on Aluminum Shields

Metallic pressure tanks used in space missions are inherently vulnerable to hypervelocity impacts from micrometeoroids and orbital debris; thereby knowledge of impact damage and its effect on the tank integrity is crucial to a spacecraft risk assessment. This paper describes tests that have been performed to assess the effects of hypervelocity impact (HVI) damage on Titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) pressure vessels burst pressure and characteristics. The tests consisted of a pair of HVI impact tests on water-filled Ti-6Al-4V tanks (water being used as a surrogate to the actual propellant) and subsequent burst tests as well as a burst test on an undamaged control tank. The tanks were placed behind Aluminum (Al) shields and then each was impacted with a 7 km/s projectile. The resulting impact debris plumes partially penetrated the Ti-6Al-4V tank surfaces resulting in a distribution of craters. During the burst tests, the tank that failed at a lower burst pressure did appear to have the failure initiating at a crater site with observed spall cracks. A fracture mechanics analysis showed that the tanks failure at the impact location may have been due to a spall crack that formed upon impact of a fragmentation on the Titanium surface. This result was corroborated with a finite element analysis from calculated Von-Mises and hoop stresses.

Nahra, Henry↗

Bhutan Water Resources II: Comparing Phenology, Precipitation, and Temperature Data in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Bhutan is vulnerable to climate fluctuations that can affect vegetation phenology patterns. Changes in the climate have raised concerns from local farmers about altered growing seasons. In response, the DEVELOP team assessed annual vegetation phenology trends across Bhutan from 1981-2014 by comparing vegetation phenology-derived data and meteorological data. The project assessed phenology change using Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. We also used Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) precipitation data and Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) temperature data to assess climate trends in the country. The team assessed VIP phenology data for 1981-2014 to assess trends for the start of season, day of peak, and length of season. For the main growing season, the results indicated that the start of season and day of peak were delayed, while the length of season increased by 22 days. Analysis of temperature and precipitation data for the early 1980s to present indicted that Bhutan’s temperature has become warmer and precipitation has increased. Satellite-based precipitation and temperature data were compared to in situ precipitation and temperature data, yielding high correlations for both precipitation (R=0.85) and temperature (R=0.9). The project results and methods were shared with the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER) to help assess climate change impacts in Bhutan.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

Time-on-task decrements in "steer clear" performance of patients with sleep apnea and narcolepsy

Loss of attention with time-on-task reflects the increasing instability of the waking state during performance in experimentally induced sleepiness. To determine whether patients with disorders of excessive sleepiness also displayed time-on-task decrements indicative of wake state instability, visual sustained attention performance on "Steer Clear," a computerized simple RT driving simulation task, was compared among 31 patients with untreated sleep apnea, 16 patients with narcolepsy, and 14 healthy control subjects. Vigilance decrement functions were generated by analyzing the number of collisions in each of six four-minute periods of Steer Clear task performance in a mixed-model analysis of variance and linear regression equations. As expected, patients had more Steer Clear collisions than control subjects (p=0.006). However, the inter-subject variability in errors among the narcoleptic patients was four-fold that of the apnea patients, and 100-fold that of the controls volunteers; the variance in errors among untreated apnea patients was 27-times that of controls. The results of transformed collision data revealed main effects for group (p=0.006), time-on-task (p=0.001), and a significant interaction (p=0.022). Control subjects showed no clear evidence of increasing collision errors with time-on-task (adjusted R2=0.22), while apnea patients showed a trend toward vigilance decrement (adjusted R2=0.42, p=0.097), and narcolepsy patients evidenced a robust linear vigilance decrement (adjusted R2=0.87, p=0.004). The association of disorders of excessive somnolence with escalating time-on-task decrements makes it imperative that when assessment of neurobehavioral performance is conducted in patients, it involves task durations and analyses that will evaluate the underlying vulnerability of potentially sleepy patients to decrements over time in tasks that require sustained attention and timely responses, both of which are key components in safe driving performance.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

Cryogenic reactant storage for lunar base regenerative fuel cells

There are major advantages to be gained by integrating a cryogenic reactant storage system with a hydrogen-oxygen regenerative fuel cell (RFC) to provide on-site electrical power during the lunar night. Although applicable to any power system using hydrogen-oxygen RFC's for energy storage, cryogenic reactant storage offers a significant benefit whenever the sun/shade cycle and energy storage period approach hundreds of hours. For solar power installations on the moon, cryogenic reactant storage reduces overall specific mass and meteoroid vulnerability of the system. In addition, it offers synergistic benefits to on-site users, such as availability of primary fuel cell reactants for surface rover vehicles and cryogenic propellants for OTV's. The integration involves processing and storing the RFC reactant streams as cryogenic liquids rather than pressurized gases, so that reactant containment (tankage per unit mass of reactants) can be greatly reduced. Hydrogen-oxygen alkaline RFC's, GaAs photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and space cryogenic processing/refrigeration technologies are assumed to be available for the conceptual system design. Advantages are demonstrated by comparing the characteristics of two power system concepts: a conventional lunar surface PV/RFC power system using pressurized gas storage in SOA filament wound pressure vessels and, that same system with gas liquefaction and storage replacing the pressurized storage. Comparisons are made at 20 and 250 kWe. Although cryogenic storage adds a processing plant (drying and liquefaction) to the system plus 30 percent more solar array to provide processing power, the approximate order of magnitude reduction in tankage mass, confirmed by this analysis, results in a reduction in overall total system mass of approximately 50 percent.

Kohout, Lisa L.↗

Cryogenic reactant storage for lunar base regenerative fuel cells

There are major advantages to be gained by integrating a cryogenic reactant storage system with a hydrogen-oxygen regenerative fuel cell (RFC) to provide on-site electrical power during the lunar night. Although applicable to any power system using hydrogen-oxygen RFC's for energy storage, cryogenic reactant storage offers a significant benefit whenever the sun/shade cycle and energy storage period approach hundreds of hours. For solar power installations on the moon, cryogenic reactant storage reduces overall specific mass and meteoroid vulnerability of the system. In addition, it offers synergistic benefits to on-site users, such as availability of primary fuel cell reactants for surface rover vehicles and cryogenic propellants for OTV's. The integration involves processing and storing the RFC reactant streams as cryogenic liquids rather than pressurized gases, so that reactant containment (tankage per unit mass of reactants) can be greatly reduced. Hydrogen-oxygen alkaline RFC's, GaAs photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and space cryogenic processing/refrigeration technologies are assumed to be available for the conceptual system design. Advantages are demonstrated by comparing the characteristics of two power system concepts: a conventional lunar surface PV/RFC power system using pressurized gas storage in SOA filament wound pressure vessels and, that same system with gas liquefaction and storage replacing the pressurized storage. Comparisons are made at 20 and 250 kWe. Although cryogenic storage adds a processing plant (drying and liquefaction) to the system plus 30 percent more solar array to provide processing power, the approximate order of magnitude reduction in tankage mass, confirmed by this analysis, results in a reduction in overall total system mass of approximately 50 percent.

Kohout, Lisa L.↗

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗