SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “virtual time”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Multiphysics and Multiscale Modeling of Coupled Transport of Chloride Ions in Concrete

Chloride ions (Cl−)-induced corrosion is one of the main degradation mechanisms in reinforced concrete (RC) structures. In most situations, the degradation initiates with the transport of Cl− from the surface of the concrete towards the reinforcing steel. The accumulation of Cl− at the steel-concrete interface could initiate reinforcement corrosion once a threshold Cl− concentration is achieved. An accurate numerical model of the Cl− transport in concrete is required to predict the corrosion initiation in RC structures. However, existing numerical models lack a representation of the heterogenous concrete microstructure resulting from the varying environmental conditions and the indirect effect of time dependent temperature and relative humidity (RH) on the water adsorption and Cl− binding isotherms. In this study, a numerical model is developed to study the coupled transport of Cl− with heat, RH and oxygen (O2) into the concrete. The modeling of the concrete microstructure is performed using the Virtual Cement and Concrete Testing Laboratory (VCCTL) code developed by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The concept of equivalent maturation time is utilized to eliminate the limitation of simulating concrete microstructure using VCCTL in specific environmental conditions such as adiabatic. Thus, a time-dependent concrete microstructure, which depends on the hydration reactions coupled with the temperature and RH of the environment, is achieved to study the Cl− transport. Additionally, Cl− binding isotherms, which are a function of the pH of the concrete pore solution, Cl− concentration, and weight fraction of mono-sulfate aluminate (AFm) and calcium-silicate-hydrate (C-S-H), obtained from an experimental study by the same authors are utilized to account for the Cl− binding of cement hydration products. The temperature dependent RH diffusion was considered to account for the transport of Cl− with moisture transport. The temperature and RH diffusion in the concrete domain, composite theory, and Cl− binding and water adsorption isotherms are used in combination, to estimate the ensuing Cl− diffusion field within the concrete. The coupled transport process of heat, RH, Cl−, and O2 is implemented in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) developed by the U.S. Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The model was verified and validated using data from multiple experimental studies with different concrete mixture proportions, curing durations, and environmental conditions. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify that the water-to-cement (w/c) ratio, the exposure duration, the boundary conditions: temperature, RH, surface Cl− concentration, Cl− diffusion coefficient in the capillary water, and the critical RH are the important parameters that govern the Cl− transport in RC structures. In a case study, the capabilities of the developed numerical model are demonstrated by studying the complex 2D diffusion of Cl− in a RC beam located in two different climatic regions: warm and humid weather in Galveston, Texas, and cold and dry weather in North Minnesota, Minnesota, subjected to time varying temperature, RH, and surface Cl− concentrations.

composite theory↗

DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Inspection of Advanced Manufacturing via Process-Scale Digital Twins (Abbreviated Report)

Inspection and certification comprise the most significant bottlenecks in advanced manufacturing for NNSA applications, often requiring far more time and resources than the fabrication of the parts themselves. Traditional methods, such as manual review and X-ray computed tomography, are not only slow and costly, but also struggle to provide a clear connection between manufacturing instructions and the final performance of critical components. This gap limits both the agility and assurance needed to support the modernization and safety of the United States nuclear stockpile. In response, our Strategic Initiative established a digital twin framework that integrates realtime process monitoring, automated data analysis, and immersive virtual reality collaboration into a unified inspection pipeline. By leveraging data from sensors, machine instructions, and imaging, we created high-fidelity virtual models of manufactured parts that could be rapidly analyzed and certified. This approach was first demonstrated with Direct Ink Write, and then extended to other manufacturing settings, including conventional (or “subtractive”) manufacturing and to predict the end of life performance of parts per the aging and lifetimes programs. The result is a transformational capability: inspection times have been reduced by a factor of 120,000 without loss of accuracy and while simultaneously improving traceability and confidence in part quality. This framework not only streamlines certification for critical applications, but also positions the national security enterprise to respond more flexibly to emerging challenges, supporting agile manufacturing and digital engineering practices across a broad range of mission-relevant domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

APOLLO: a facility-scale differentiable virtual accelerator for Fermilab

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or yield additional insights like gradients. The FAST/IOTA facility has been working on implementing and experimentally validating an end-to-end digital twin that is both fast and gradient-aware, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. Our framework integrates physics and ML codes for linac and ring simulation through a set of generic interfaces between surrogate and physics-based sections. To reproduce device inputs and outputs, system state is exposed as a deterministic discrete event simulator. Because Fermilab is undergoing control system transition, both EPICS and ACNET frontends are supported. Recently, we have begun transitioning to a new community lattice standard, PALS, as well as developing standardized infrastructure for data ingest and normalization to prepare for model calibration during FAST proton injector commissioning. We discuss implementation details as well as challenges, and future plans to extend modelling to main complex proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lifting and Dropping VMs to Dynamically Transition Between Time- and Space-sharing for Large-Scale HPC Systems

As HPC environments increasingly integrate with edge based systems, system architectures will need to handle a broader class of workloads and scheduling requirements. One result of this shift will be the need to simultaneously support bulk-synchronous parallel (BSP) and on-demand service based applications on the same infrastructure. This in turn will require that future resource management approaches utilize both space-shared as well as time-shared resource scheduling strategies. In this work we introduce the concept of "VM-lifting'' (and its inverse "VM-Dropping'') which allows dynamically switching an HPC workload between space-shared and time-shared scheduling regimes. Our work targets co-kernel based HPC system software environments, in which multiple specialized OS kernels execute natively on dedicated physical resource partitions inside a single compute node. With VM-lifting, a native co-kernel can be migrated at runtime to and from locally hosted Virtual Machine Environments due to changing scheduling requirements of the node. This allows an HPC node to be dynamically (re-)configured as either a time-shared Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) resource or a dedicated space shared resource based on the current workload demands. We have implemented this approach in the context of the Hobbes Exascale System Software stack and have demonstrated that a node can be reconfigured with minimal impact on the running applications.

Gordon, Nick↗

DOE OSTI2021

Object manipulation in immersive virtual environments: Hand Motion tracking technology and snap-to-fit function

There have been recent efforts to use virtual reality and manipulation to train construction workers and inspection. However, there is a lack of research efforts comparing and evaluating virtual manipulation hardware for construction tasks. Moreover, the current practice of virtual manipulation has limited functionality to guide users with the placement of objects in virtual environments. To address these issues, this paper presents 1) a detailed case study that compares three types of manipulation hardware (image-based, infrared-based, and magnetic-based) for construction applications and 2) a snap-to-fit method that improves the VM through solving limitations of the advanced virtual reality interaction metaphors. The latter enhances the placement process for manipulation by comparing two models (e.g., scan and BIM models) for proper placement in assembly scenarios. Finally, the case study results show that magnetic-based systems outperform others in construction scenarios. Lastly, the snap-to-fit function was validated in terms of accuracy and time performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Encoding integers and rationals on neuromorphic computers using virtual neuron

Abstract Neuromorphic computers emulate the human brain while being extremely power efficient for computing tasks. In fact, they are poised to be critical for energy-efficient computing in the future. Neuromorphic computers are primarily used in spiking neural network–based machine learning applications. However, they are known to be Turing-complete, and in theory can perform all general-purpose computation. One of the biggest bottlenecks in realizing general-purpose computations on neuromorphic computers today is the inability to efficiently encode data on the neuromorphic computers. To fully realize the potential of neuromorphic computers for energy-efficient general-purpose computing, efficient mechanisms must be devised for encoding numbers. Current encoding mechanisms (e.g., binning, rate-based encoding, and time-based encoding) have limited applicability and are not suited for general-purpose computation. In this paper, we present the virtual neuron abstraction as a mechanism for encoding and adding integers and rational numbers by using spiking neural network primitives. We evaluate the performance of the virtual neuron on physical and simulated neuromorphic hardware. We estimate that the virtual neuron could perform an addition operation using just 23 nJ of energy on average with a mixed-signal, memristor-based neuromorphic processor. We also demonstrate the utility of the virtual neuron by using it in some of the μ -recursive functions, which are the building blocks of general-purpose computation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Roadmap for Optical Metasurfaces

Metasurfaces have recently risen to prominence in optical research, providing unique functionalities that can be used for imaging, beam forming, holography, polarimetry, and many more, while keeping device dimensions small. Despite the fact that a vast range of basic metasurface designs has already been thoroughly studied in the literature, the number of metasurface-related papers is still growing at a rapid pace, as metasurface research is now spreading to adjacent fields, including computational imaging, augmented and virtual reality, automotive, display, biosensing, nonlinear, quantum and topological optics, optical computing, and more. At the same time, the ability of metasurfaces to perform optical functions in much more compact optical systems has triggered strong and constantly growing interest from various industries that greatly benefit from the availability of miniaturized, highly functional, and efficient optical components that can be integrated in optoelectronic systems at low cost. This creates a truly unique opportunity for the field of metasurfaces to make both a scientific and an industrial impact. Furthermore, the goal of this Roadmap is to mark this “golden age” of metasurface research and define future directions to encourage scientists and engineers to drive research and development in the field of metasurfaces toward both scientific excellence and broad industrial adoption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Conditional guided generative diffusion for particle accelerator beam diagnostics

Abstract Advanced accelerator-based light sources such as free electron lasers (FEL) accelerate highly relativistic electron beams to generate incredibly short (10s of femtoseconds) coherent flashes of light for dynamic imaging, whose brightness exceeds that of traditional synchrotron-based light sources by orders of magnitude. FEL operation requires precise control of the shape and energy of the extremely short electron bunches whose characteristics directly translate into the properties of the produced light. Control of short intense beams is difficult due to beam characteristics drifting with time and complex collective effects such as space charge and coherent synchrotron radiation. Detailed diagnostics of beam properties are therefore essential for precise beam control. Such measurements typically rely on a destructive approach based on a combination of a transverse deflecting resonant cavity followed by a dipole magnet in order to measure a beam’s 2D time vs energy longitudinal phase-space distribution. In this paper, we develop a non-invasive virtual diagnostic of an electron beam’s longitudinal phase space at megapixel resolution (1024 × 1024) based on a generative conditional diffusion model. We demonstrate the model’s generative ability on experimental data from the European X-ray FEL.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Rate Dependent Volume Change in Porous Electrodes in Lithium-Ion Batteries

Automotive manufacturers are working to improve individual cell, module, and overall pack design by increasing the performance, range, and durability, while reducing cost. One key piece to consider during the design process is the active material volume change, its linkage to the particle, electrode, and cell level volume changes, and the interplay with structural components in the rechargeable energy storage system. As the time from initial design to manufacture of electric vehicles decreases, design work needs to move to the virtual domain; therefore, a need for coupled electrochemical-mechanical models that take into account the active material volume change and the rate dependence of this volume change need to be considered. In this study, we illustrated the applicability of a coupled electrochemical-mechanical battery model considering multiple representative particles to capture experimentally measured rate dependent reversible volume change at the cell level through the use of an electrochemical-mechanical battery model that couples the particle, electrode, and cell level volume changes. By employing this coupled approach, the importance of considering multiple active material particle sizes representative of the distribution is demonstrated. The non-uniformity in utilization between two different size particles as well as the significant spatial non-uniformity in the radial direction of the larger particles is the primary driver of the rate dependent characteristics of the volume change at the electrode and cell level.

Electrochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radsource Mr: Mixed Reality Planning Tool For Radioactive Recovery

The RadSource MR system leverages Meta Quest 3's advanced mixed reality capabilities to create a comprehensive spatial planning platform for end-of-life sealed radioactive source recovery operations. The application utilizes the Quest 3's high-resolution passthrough cameras and spatial mapping algorithms to generate accurate 3D environmental models. Core technical components include: (1) Real-time spatial measurement algorithms calculating distances, angles, slopes, and surface areas with sub-centimeter accuracy; (2) Virtual object placement system allowing users to position digital representations of recovery equipment (trailers, containment vessels, protective barriers) within the real environment; (3) Voice recording and annotation system for hands-free documentation in protective equipment; (4) 3D mesh capture and storage capabilities for post-operation analysis and regulatory documentation. (5) Procedure documentation is available for viewing in Mixed Reality, providing an innovative and convenient way to access the information during pre-visit and inspection activities. (6) Support for screen capture for the view for real world and virtual objects together to use it later for planning. The system integrates computer vision techniques for environmental understanding, spatial mathematics for precise measurements, and human-computer interaction principles optimized for hazardous environment operations. Data persistence allows teams to save and share planning sessions across multiple stakeholders while maintaining operational security requirements.

Khadka, Rajiv [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗

DOE OSTI2025

APOLLO: a facility-scale differentiable virtual accelerator at Fermilab FAST/IOTA

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or yield additional insights like gradients. The FAST/IOTA facility has been working on implementing and experimentally validating an end-to-end digital twin that is both fast and gradient-aware, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. Our framework integrates physics and ML codes for linac and ring simulation through a set of generic interfaces between surrogate and physics-based sections. To reproduce device inputs and outputs, system state is exposed as a deterministic event loop in a specialized discrete event simulator architecture. Because Fermilab is undergoing control system transition, several APIs were implemented as final user interfaces - a fully asynchronous EPICS soft IOC, a gRPC-based Data Pool Manager (DPM), and legacy ACNET protocols. We discuss implementation details as well as challenges handling live data assimilation and future plans to extend modelling to main complex proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental upper bounds for resonance-enhanced entangled two-photon absorption cross section of indocyanine green

Resonant intermediate states have been proposed to increase the efficiency of entangled two-photon absorption (ETPA). Although resonance-enhanced ETPA (r-ETPA) has been demonstrated in atomic systems using bright squeezed vacuum, it has not been studied in organic molecules. We investigate for the first time r-ETPA in an organic molecular dye, indocyanine green (ICG), when excited by broadband entangled photons in near-IR. Similar to many reported virtual state mediated ETPA (v-ETPA) measurements, no r-ETPA signals are measured, with an experimental upper bound for the cross section placed at 6(±2) × 10 −23 cm 2 . In addition, the classical resonance-enhanced two-photon absorption (r-TPA) cross section of ICG at 800 nm is measured for the first time to be 20(±13) GM, where 1 GM equals 10 −50 cm 4 s, suggesting that having a resonant intermediate state does not significantly enhance two-photon processes in ICG. Furthermore, the spectrotemporally resolved emission signatures of ICG excited by entangled photons are also presented to support this conclusion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗

DOE OSTI2021

VERA-Grizzly Ex-Core Calculations: Watts Bar Unit 1 Cycles 1-2

The critical structures that comprise light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants are subjected to operating environments that can challenge their integrity. Structures in close proximity to the reactor core, such as the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) and the biological shield wall, are subjected to high levels of radiation emanating from the core, as well as elevated temperatures. As the US fleet of operating LWRs ages, the effects of these operating environments on the integrity of these structures must be considered to ensure their continued safe operation. Extending the lifetime of commercial reactors and maintaining the aging reactor fleet require accurate prediction of the exposure of ex-core components to neutron and photon radiation. In particular, concrete degradation studies must be performed to evaluate the safety and long-term operation of reactors with lifetime extensions. The concrete reactor bioshield is important for providing radiological protection during operation and must last for the entire lifetime of the reactor. Recent interest in lifetime extensions furthers the need to accurately simulate concrete material degradation in the reactor bioshield. As a result of this need, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has funded this study to couple its tools, Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) and Grizzly. VERA allows users to set up models to calculate time-dependent and fully coupled solutions (with thermal feedback) for ex-core quantities of interest such as vessel and coupon fluence and detector responses for multiple statepoints and cycles. Grizzly is a finite-element application based on the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework that is used to enable aging materials calculations. This report highlights the work performed to calculate the fluence in the vessel and concrete for Watts Bar Nuclear Plant Unit 1 (WBN1) Cycles 1 and 2. The fluences obtained from VERA were successfully transferred to Grizzly using a Python script. Four simulations were run with Grizzly: (1) the Mazars model with the initial Young’s modulus being the instantaneous modulus, (2) the Mazars model with the initial Young’s modulus being the delayed modulus, (3) the Mazars model with the initial Young’s modulus being the delayed modulus with the addition of the effects of micro-damage caused by irradiation, and (4) the Mazars model with the initial Young’s modulus being the instantaneous modulus, and with the addition of micro-damage and creep. Details regarding the methods used to obtain the fluence and the statistical errors associated with the VERA Monte Carlo Shift calculations are discussed in greater detail in this report. The results obtained from the four Grizzly models are also presented in this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Systematic, Polynomial-Cost Approach to Exact Correlation Energies (Final Technical Report)

The full configuration interaction (FCI) wave function provides the exact solution to the Schrödinger equation in a given basis set. While FCI is intractable due to exponential computational costs, the many-body expansion (or the method of increments) can reduce scaling to a low-order polynomial with system size. This project entailed advances in the incremental FCI (iFCI) approach, designed to allow iFCI to reach larger system sizes and maintain its intrinsic high accuracy. This document describes advances in solvers for iFCI, strategies to treat multiple charge and spin states, and virtual state management methods to reduce memory requirements. Overall, this project allows iFCI to correlate (for the first time) 142 valence electrons in 444 orbitals in a realistic model of a transition metal complex.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cooperative Systems in Presence of Cyber-Attacks: A Unified Framework for Resilient Control and Attack Identification

Here, this paper considers a cooperative control problem in presence of unknown attacks. The attacker aims at destabilizing the consensus dynamics by intercepting the system’s communication network and corrupting its local state feedback. We first revisit the virtual network based resilient control proposed in our previous work and provide a new interpretation and insights into its implementation. Based on these insights, a novel distributed algorithm is presented to detect and identify the compromised communication links. It is shown that it is not possible for the adversary to launch a harmful and stealthy attack by only manipulating the physical states being exchanged via the network. In addition, a new virtual network is proposed which makes it more difficult for the adversary to launch a stealthy attack even though it is also able to manipulate information being exchanged via the virtual network. A numerical example demonstrates that the proposed control framework achieves simultaneously resilient operation and real-time attack identification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE-PT-LANL Measurements: Photoacoustic Extinctometer

Coastal cities offer a unique environment for studying aerosol-cloud interactions and the effects of urban emissions on cloud properties. As part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), the Partitioning Thrust by Los Alamos National Laboratory (EPCAPE-PT-LANL) was conducted. Our campaign focused on measuring the optical and chemical properties of aerosols and their interactions within marine stratocumulus clouds in La Jolla, California. EPCAPE-PT-LANL enhances the primary goals of EPCAPE through innovative observations of vapor-phase transitions between aerosols and cloud droplets, the impact of black carbon on aerosol-cloud dynamics, and the effects of cloud processing on aerosol optical properties. Instrument: Photoacoustic Extinctiometer at 870 nm (Droplet Measurement Technology) Header: - AbsorptionNoise_870nm[1/Mm]: Noise level associated with the absorption measurement at 870 nm, expressed in inverse megameters (Mm⁻¹). - Absorption_870nm[1/Mm]: Absorption coefficient of aerosols measured at 870 nm, expressed in inverse megameters (Mm⁻¹). - Extinction_870nm[1/Mm]: Extinction coefficient of aerosols measured at 870 nm, expressing the sum of scattering and absorption by aerosols, in inverse megameters (Mm⁻¹). - Scattering_870nm[1/Mm]: Scattering coefficient of aerosols measured at 870 nm, expressed in inverse megameters (Mm⁻¹). - BackgroundAbsorption_870nm[1/Mm]: Background absorption measurement at 870 nm, used to correct the primary absorption data, expressed in inverse megameters (Mm⁻¹). - BackgroundScattering_870nm[1/Mm]: Background scattering measurement at 870 nm, used to correct the primary scattering data, expressed in inverse megameters (Mm⁻¹). - Temperature[C]: The ambient temperature at the time of the measurement, expressed in degrees Celsius. - RelativeHumidity[%]: The relative humidity at the time of the measurement, expressed as a percentage. - CVI_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) was active (true) or inactive (false) during the measurement

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Visual HPC Workflows for the Analysis of System Dynamics Models

Visual analytics supported by high performance computing (HPC) accelerates and enhances the discovery, exploration, and analysis of causal patterns in complex system dynamics (SD) models. We present a suite of visualization-assisted ensemble-based techniques for hypothesis generation and testing, and for sensitivity analysis. By employing HPC to provide parallel, on-demand simulation of SD models, one can “steer” an ensemble of simulated scenarios in real time as one first formulates and then informally tests those hypotheses: this provides rapid feedback for analysts to refine their understanding of the causal relationships emergent from a model. Such understandings can be followed and augmented by rigorous application of statistical methods, namely global variance-based sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo filtering, adaptive regional sensitivity analysis, and self-organized maps: here timely computation relies on HPC, while effective presentation emphasizes high-dimensional multivariate data visualization. Immersive visualization in virtual 3D environments provides an excellent adjunct to the traditional 2D graphics typically used for SD models, as it generates an embodied understanding of model behavior and facilitates an active, collaborative critique of model structure and output. Finally, we summarize prospects for HPC-enabled visual analytics applied to SD modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗