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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Environmental controls on isolated convection during the Amazonian wet season

The Amazon rainforest is a vital component of the global climate system, influencing the hydrological cycle and tropical circulation. However, understanding and modeling the evolution of convection in this region remain a scientific challenge. Here, we assess the environmental conditions associated with shallow, congestus, and isolated deep convection days during the wet season (December to April), employing measurements from the Green Ocean Amazon 2014–2015 (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment and large-scale wind fields from the constrained variational analysis. Composites of deep days show moister than average conditions below 3 km early in the morning. Analyzing the water budget at the surface through observations only, we estimated the water vapor convergence term as a residual of the water balance closure. Convergence remains nearly zero during the deep days until early afternoon (13:00 LST), when it becomes a dominant factor in the water budget. At 14:00 LST, the deep days experience a robust upward large-scale vertical velocity, especially above 4 km, which supports the shallow-to-deep convective transition occurring around 16:00–17:00 LST. In contrast, shallow and congestus days exhibit drier pre-convective conditions, along with diurnal water vapor divergence and large-scale subsidence that extend from the surface to the lower free troposphere. Moreover, afternoon precipitation exhibits the strongest linear correlation (0.6) with large-scale vertical velocity, nearly double the magnitude observed for other environmental factors, even moisture, at different levels and periods of the day. Precipitation also exhibits a moderate increase with low-level wind shear, while upper-level shear has a relatively minor negative impact on convection.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Collaborative Proposal: Improving Understanding of the Internal Structure and Dynamics of Deep Convection Using ARM Observations and Large Eddy Simulations (Final progress report)

This is the final technical report for the DOE Atmospheric System Research funded project entitled "Collaborative Proposal: Improving Understanding of the Internal Structure and Dynamics of Deep Convection Using ARM Observations and Large Eddy Simulations". This project addressed several science questions related to the structure and behavior of deep convective clouds in the atmosphere. It applied knowledge gained from this work to improve the deep cumulus convection parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Specific outcomes related to the project include an improved understanding of: (1) how convective cloud environments regulate the size of thermals reaching the upper troposphere, and hence the shallow-to-deep convective transition; (2) the role of dynamic pressure forcing in thermal and convective cloud evolution; and (3) the role of vertical wind shear on the behavior of moist thermals and the transition from shallow to deep convection. Although the primary motivation of this project was to improve basic understanding of thermal dynamics in atmospheric convection, an important component of this work was using this improved understanding to modify the representation of entrainment and vertical velocity profiles in the Zhang-McFarlane cumulus parameterization used in CESM. This work also had a strong observational component, with analyses of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations to characterize thermal characteristics and behavior. Observations collected during the ARM-supported CACTI field project were used with high-resolution simulations to explore environmental controls on deep convection initiation. Data from the ARM-supported MC3E field project were also used to evaluate the representation of updraft vertical velocities in the Zhang-McFarlane cumulus parameterization. This project directly supported the training of two post-doctoral researchers and led to 16 peer-reviewed published papers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Diffusional growth of cloud droplets in homogeneous isotropic turbulence: DNS, scaled-up DNS, and stochastic model

This paper presents a novel methodology to use direct numerical simulation (DNS) to study the impact of isotropic homogeneous turbulence on the condensational growth of cloud droplets. As shown by previous DNS studies, the impact of turbulence increases with the computational domain size, that is, with the Reynolds number, because larger eddies generate higher and longer-lasting supersaturation fluctuations that affect growth of individual cloud droplets. The traditional DNS can only simulate a limited range of scales because of the excessive computational cost that comes from resolving all scales involved, that is, from large scales at which the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is introduced down to the Kolmogorov microscale, and from following every single droplet. The novel approach is referred to as the “scaled-up DNS”. The scaling up is done in two parts, first by increasing both the computational domain and the Kolmogorov microscale and second by using super-droplets instead of real droplets. To ensure proper dissipation of TKE and scalar variance at small scales, molecular transport coefficients are appropriately scaled up with the grid length. For the scaled-up domains, say, meters and tens of meters, one needs to follow billions of real droplets. This is not computationally feasible, and so-called super-droplets are applied in scaled-up DNS simulations. Each super-droplet represents an ensemble of identical real droplets, and the number of real droplets represented by a super-droplet is referred to as the multiplicity attribute. After simple tests showing the validity of the methodology, scaled-up DNS simulations are conducted for five domains, the largest of 64 3 m 3 volume using a DNS of 256 3 grid points and various multiplicities. All simulations are carried out with vanishing mean vertical velocity and with no mean supersaturation, similarly to past DNS studies. As expected, the supersaturation fluctuations as well as the spread in droplet size distribution increase with the domain size, with the droplet radius variance increasing in time t as t 1∕2 as identified in previous DNS studies. Scaled-up simulations with different multiplicities document numerical convergence of the scaled-up solutions. Finally, we compare the scaled-up DNS results with a simple stochastic model that calculates supersaturation fluctuations based on the vertical velocity fluctuations updated using the Langevin equation. Overall, the results document similar scaling to previous small-domain DNS simulations and support the notion that the stochastic subgrid-scale model is a valuable tool for the multi-scale simulation of droplet spectral evolution applying a large-eddy simulation model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.

Duda, David P.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Crash Testing and Simulation of a Cessna 172 Aircraft: Hard Landing Onto Concrete

A full-scale crash test of a Cessna 172 aircraft was conducted at the Landing and Impact Research Facility at NASA Langley Research Center during the summer of 2015. The purpose of the test was to evaluate the performance of Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs) that were mounted at various locations in the aircraft and to generate impact test data for model validation. A finite element model of the aircraft was developed for execution in LSDYNA to simulate the test. Measured impact conditions were 722.4-in/s forward velocity and 276-in/s vertical velocity with a 1.5deg pitch (nose up) attitude. These conditions were intended to represent a survivable hard landing. The impact surface was concrete. During the test, the nose gear tire impacted the concrete, followed closely by impact of the main gear tires. The main landing gear spread outward, as the nose gear stroked vertically. The only fuselage contact with the impact surface was a slight impact of the rearmost portion of the lower tail. Thus, capturing the behavior of the nose and main landing gear was essential to accurately predict the response. This paper describes the model development and presents test-analysis comparisons in three categories: inertial properties, time sequence of events, and acceleration and velocity time-histories.

Jackson, Karen E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Model for Vortex Ring State Influence on Rotorcraft Flight Dynamics

The influence of vortex ring state (VRS) on rotorcraft flight dynamics is investigated, specifically the vertical velocity drop of helicopters and the roll-off of tiltrotors encountering VRS. The available wind tunnel and flight test data for rotors in vortex ring state are reviewed. Test data for axial flow, nonaxial flow, two rotors, unsteadiness, and vortex ring state boundaries are described and discussed. Based on the available measured data, a VRS model is developed. The VRS model is a parametric extension of momentum theory for calculation of the mean inflow of a rotor, hence suitable for simple calculations and real-time simulations. This inflow model is primarily defined in terms of the stability boundary of the aircraft motion. Calculations of helicopter response during VRS encounter were performed, and good correlation is shown with the vertical velocity drop measured in flight tests. Calculations of tiltrotor response during VRS encounter were performed, showing the roll-off behavior characteristic of tiltrotors. Hence it is possible, using a model of the mean inflow of an isolated rotor, to explain the basic behavior of both helicopters and tiltrotors in vortex ring state.

VORTEX RING STATE↗
NASA NTRS2005

Model for Vortex Ring State Influence on Rotorcraft Flight Dynamics

The influence of vortex ring state (VRS) on rotorcraft flight dynamics is investigated, specifically the vertical velocity drop of helicopters and the roll-off of tiltrotors encountering VRS. The available wind tunnel and flight test data for rotors in vortex ring state are reviewed. Test data for axial flow, non-axial flow, two rotors, unsteadiness, and vortex ring state boundaries are described and discussed. Based on the available measured data, a VRS model is developed. The VRS model is a parametric extension of momentum theory for calculation of the mean inflow of a rotor, hence suitable for simple calculations and real-time simulations. This inflow model is primarily defined in terms of the stability boundary of the aircraft motion. Calculations of helicopter response during VRS encounter were performed, and good correlation is shown with the vertical velocity drop measured in flight tests. Calculations of tiltrotor response during VRS encounter were performed, showing the roll-off behavior characteristic of tiltrotors. Hence it is possible, using a model of the mean inflow of an isolated rotor, to explain the basic behavior of both helicopters and tiltrotors in vortex ring state.

Johnson, Wayne↗
NASA NTRS2002

Estimation of Mesoscale Atmospheric Latent Heating Profiles from TRMM Rain Statistics Utilizing a Simple One-Dimensional Model

In this study, a model is developed to estimate mesoscale-resolution atmospheric latent heating (ALH) profiles. It utilizes rain statistics deduced from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data, and cloud vertical velocity profiles and regional surface thermodynamic climatologies derived from other available data sources. From several rain events observed over tropical ocean and land, ALH profiles retrieved by this model in convective rain regions reveal strong warming throughout most of the troposphere, while in stratiform rain regions they usually show slight cooling below the freezing level and significant warming above. The mesoscale-average, or total, ALH profiles reveal a dominant stratiform character, because stratiform rain areas are usually much larger than convective rain areas. Sensitivity tests of the model show that total ALH at a given tropospheric level varies by less than +/- 10 % when convective and stratiform rain rates and mesoscale fractional rain areas are perturbed individually by +/- 15 %. This is also found when the non-uniform convective vertical velocity profiles are replaced by one that is uniform. Larger variability of the total ALH profiles arises when climatological ocean- and land-surface temperatures (water vapor mixing ratios) are independently perturbed by +/- 1.0 K (+/- 5%) and +/- 5.0 K (+/- 15%), respectively. At a given tropospheric level, such perturbations can cause a +/- 25% variation of total ALH over ocean, and a factor-of-two sensitivity over land. This sensitivity is reduced substantially if perturbations of surface thermodynamic variables do not change surface relative humidity, or are not extended throughout the entire model evaporation layer. The ALH profiles retrieved in this study agree qualitatively with tropical total diabatic heating profiles deduced in earlier studies. Also, from January and July 1999 ALH-profile climatologies generated separately with TRMM Microwave Imager and Precipitation Radar rain statistics, it is shown that ALH profiles can be retrieved utilizing diverse satellite-derived rain products that offer convective and stratiform discrimination. Therefore, the ALH retrieval model developed in this study can be used to make regional estimates of total diabatic heating profiles in the future Global Precipitation Measurement mission, and to assimilate these profiles into numerical weather forecast and climate models.

Iacovazzi, Robert A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Estimation of Mesoscale Atmospheric Latent Heating Profiles from TRMM Rain Statistics Utilizing a Simple One-Dimensional Model

In this study, a model is developed to estimate mesoscale-resolution atmospheric latent heating (ALH) profiles. It utilizes rain statistics deduced from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data, and cloud vertical velocity profiles and regional surface thermodynamic climatologies derived from other available data sources. From several rain events observed over tropical ocean and land, ALH profiles retrieved by this model in convective rain regions reveal strong warming throughout most of the troposphere, while in stratiform rain regions they usually show slight cooling below the freezing level and significant warming above. The mesoscale-average, or total, ALH profiles reveal a dominant stratiform character, because stratiform rain areas are usually much larger than convective rain areas. Sensitivity tests of the model show that total ALH at a given tropospheric level varies by less than +/- 10 % when convective and stratiform rain rates and mesoscale fractional rain areas are perturbed individually by 1 15 %. This is also found when the non-uniform convective vertical velocity profiles are replaced by one that is uniform. Larger variability of the total ALH profiles arises when climatological ocean- and land-surface temperatures (water vapor mixing ratios) are independently perturbed by +/- 1.0 K (+/- 5 %) and +/- 5.0 K (+/- 15 %), respectively. At a given tropospheric level, such perturbations can cause a +/- 25 % variation of total ALH over ocean, and a factor-of-two sensitivity over land. This sensitivity is reduced substantially if perturbations of surface thermodynamic variables do not change surface relative humidity, or are not extended throughout the entire model evaporation layer. The ALH profiles retrieved in this study agree qualitatively with tropical total diabatic heating profiles deduced in earlier studies. Also, from January and July 1999 ALH-profile climatologies generated separately with TRMM Microwave Imager and Precipitation Radar rain statistics, it is shown that ALH profiles can be retrieved utilizing diverse satellite-derived rain products that offer convective and stratiform discrimination. Therefore, the ALH retrieval model developed in this study can be used to make regional estimates of total diabatic heating profiles in the future Global Precipitation Measurement mission, and to assimilate these profiles into numerical weather forecast and climate models.

Iacovazzi, Robert A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Turbulent CO2 Flux Measurements by Lidar: Length Scales, Results and Comparison with In-Situ Sensors

The vertical CO2 flux in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is investigated with a Doppler differential absorption lidar (DIAL). The instrument was operated next to the WLEF instrumented tall tower in Park Falls, Wisconsin during three days and nights in June 2007. Profiles of turbulent CO2 mixing ratio and vertical velocity fluctuations are measured by in-situ sensors and Doppler DIAL. Time and space scales of turbulence are precisely defined in the ABL. The eddy-covariance method is applied to calculate turbulent CO2 flux both by lidar and in-situ sensors. We show preliminary mean lidar CO2 flux measurements in the ABL with a time and space resolution of 6 h and 1500 m respectively. The flux instrumental errors decrease linearly with the standard deviation of the CO2 data, as expected. Although turbulent fluctuations of CO2 are negligible with respect to the mean (0.1 %), we show that the eddy-covariance method can provide 2-h, 150-m range resolved CO2 flux estimates as long as the CO2 mixing ratio instrumental error is no greater than 10 ppm and the vertical velocity error is lower than the natural fluctuations over a time resolution of 10 s.

Gilbert, Fabien↗
NASA NTRS1987

Measurement of heat and moisture fluxes at the top of the rain forest during ABLE

Observations are presented of turbulent heat, moisture, and momentum transport made at two levels, approximately 5 and 10 m above the Amazon rain forest canopy. Data acquired at 10 Hz included variances and some mixed third moments of vertical velocity, temperature, and humidity. Two features of the data appear to question the displacement height hypothesis: (1) The characteristic dissipation length scale in the near-canopy layer varied between 20 m in stable conditions to approximately 150 m during afternoon convective conditions, generally larger scales than would be expected; and (2) No appreciable difference in dissipation scales was seen at the two observed levels. Observed peaks in vertical velocity-temperature cospectra lead to similar length scale estimates for dominant eddies. Heat budgets on selected days show that frequent periods with negative heat flux concurrent with continuing positive moisture flux occur in early afternoon, and this is believed to indicate the patchy nature of canopy-atmosphere coupling. Vertical velocity skewness was observed to be negative on three successive days and exhibited a sharp positive gradient.

Fitzjarrald, David R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Investigation of LES Wall Modeling for Rayleigh–Bénard Convection via Interpretable and Physics-Aware Feedforward Neural Networks with DNS

Abstract The traditional approach of using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to model near-surface processes in large-eddy simulations (LESs) can lead to significant errors in natural convection. In this study, we propose an alternative approach based on feedforward neural networks (FNNs) trained on output from direct numerical simulation (DNS). To evaluate the performance, we conduct both a priori and a posteriori tests. In the a priori (offline) tests, we compare the statistics of the surface shear stress and heat flux, computed from filtered DNS input variables, to the stress and flux obtained from the filtered DNS. Additionally, we investigate the importance of various input features using the Shapley additive explanations value and the conditional average of the filter grid cells. In the a posteriori (online) tests, we implement the trained models in the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) LES and compare the LES-generated surface shear stress and heat flux with those in the DNS. Our findings reveal that vertical velocity, a traditionally overlooked flow quantity, is one of the most important input features for determining the wall fluxes. Increasing the number of input features improves the a priori test results but does not always improve the model performance in the a posteriori tests because of the differences in input variables between the LES and DNS. Last, we show that physics-aware FNN models trained with logarithmic and scaled parameters can well extrapolate to more intense convection scenarios than in the training dataset, whereas those trained with primitive flow quantities cannot. Significance Statement The traditional near-surface turbulence model, based on a shear-dominated boundary layer flow, does not represent near-surface turbulence in natural convection. Using a feedforward neural network (FNN), we can construct a more accurate model that better represents the near-surface turbulence in various flows and reveals previously overlooked controlling factors and process interactions. Our study shows that the FNN-generated models outperform the traditional model and highlight the importance of the near-surface vertical velocity. Furthermore, the physics-aware FNN models exhibit the potential to extrapolate to convective flows of various intensities beyond the range of the training dataset, suggesting their broader applicability for more accurate modeling of near-surface turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Dryline on 22 May 2002 during IHOP_2002: Convective-Scale Measurements at the Profiling Site

A detailed analysis of the structure of a double dryline observed over the Oklahoma panhandle during the first International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) convective initiation (CI) mission on 22 May 2002 is presented. A unique and unprecedented set of high temporal and spatial resolution measurements of water vapor mixing ratio, wind, and boundary layer structure parameters were acquired using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) scanning Raman lidar (SRL), the Goddard Lidar Observatory for Winds (GLOW), and the Holographic Airborne Rotating Lidar Instrument Experiment (HARLIE), respectively. These measurements are combined with the vertical velocity measurements derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Multiple Antenna Profiler Radar (MAPR) and radar structure function from the high-resolution University of Massachusetts frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) radar to reveal the evolution and structure of the late afternoon double-dryline boundary layer. The eastern dryline advanced and then retreated over the Homestead profiling site in the Oklahoma panhandle, providing conditions ripe for a detailed observation of the small-scale variability within the boundary layer and the dryline. In situ aircraft data, dropsonde and radiosonde data, along with NCAR S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) measurements, are also used to provide the larger-scale picture of the double-dryline environment. Moisture and temperature jumps of about 3 g kg(sup -1) and 1 -2 K, respectively, were observed across the eastern radar fine line (dryline), more than the moisture jumps (1-2 g kg(sup -1)) observed across the western radar fine line (secondary dryline). Most updraft plumes observed were located on the moist side of the eastern dryline with vertical velocities exceeding 3 m s(sup -1) and variable horizontal widths of 2-5 km, although some were as wide as 7-8 km. These updrafts were up to 1.5 g kg(sup -1) moister than the surrounding environment. Although models suggested deep convection over the Oklahoma panhandle and several cloud lines were observed near the dryline, the dryline itself did not initiate any storms over the intensive observation region (IOR). Possible reasons for this lack of convection are discussed. Strong capping inversion and moisture detrainment between the lifting condensation level and the level of free convection related to an overriding drier air, together with the relatively small near-surface moisture values (less than 10 g kg(sup -1)), were detrimental to CI in this case.

Demoz, Belay↗
NASA NTRS2014

Weather Avoidance Guidelines for NASA Global Hawk High-Altitude Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

The current Global Hawk flight rules would probably not have been effective in the single event of greatest concern (the Emily encounter). The cloud top had not reached 50,000 ft until minutes before the encounter. The TOT and lightning data would not have been available until near the overflight time since this was a rapidly growing cell. This case would have required a last‐minute diversion when lightning became frequent. Avoiding such a cell probably requires continual monitoring of the forward camera and storm scope, whether or not cloud tops have been exceeding specific limits. However, the current overflight rules as strictly interpreted would have prohibited significant fractions of the successful Global Hawk overpasses of Karl and Matthew that proved not to be hazardous. Many other high altitude aircraft (ER‐2 and Global Hawk) flights in NASA tropical cyclone field programs have successfully overflown deep convective clouds without incident.The convective cell that caused serious concern about the safety of the ER‐2 in Emily was especially strong for a tropical cyclone environment, probably as strong or stronger than any that was overflown by the ER‐2 in 20 previous flights over tropical cyclones. Specifically, what made that cell a safety concern was the magnitude of the vertical velocity of the updraft, at least 20 m/s (4000 ft/minute) at the time the ER‐2 overflew it. Such a strong updraft can generate strong gravity waves at and above the tropopause, posing a potential danger to aircraft far above the maximum altitude of the updraft itself or its associated cloud top. Indeed, the ER‐2 was probably at least 9000 ft above that cloud top. Cloud‐top height, by itself, is not an especially good indicator of the intensity of convection and the likelihood of turbulence. Nor is overflying high cloud tops (i.e. > 50,000 ft) of particular concern unless there is other evidence of very strong convective updrafts beneath those tops in the path of the aircraft. center dot Lightning, especially lightning with a high flash rate, is well correlated with convective intensity. Lightning with a minimal flash rate (say 1‐3 flashes per minute) is indicative of updraft speeds of about 10 m/s in the mixed phase region where charge is being separated, generally at altitudes about 20‐25 kft in a hurricane. That is still stronger than typical updrafts (more like 5 m/s). An unresolved issue is whether there is a high and instantaneous correlation between vertical velocity in the middle troposphere (necessary for lightning generation) and near cloud top (more direct concern for overflights).

Cecil, Daniel J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Analytic Formula for Entraining CAPE in Midlatitude Storm Environments

Abstract This article introduces an analytic formula for entraining convective available potential energy (ECAPE) with an entrainment rate that is determined directly from an environmental sounding, rather than prescribed by the formula user. Entrainment is connected to the background environment using an eddy diffusivity approximation for lateral mixing, updraft geometry assumptions, and mass continuity. These approximations result in a direct correspondence between the storm-relative flow and the updraft radius and an inverse scaling between the updraft radius squared and entrainment rate. The aforementioned concepts, combined with the assumption of adiabatic conservation of moist static energy, yield an explicit analytic equation for ECAPE that depends entirely on state variables in an atmospheric profile and a few constant parameters with values that are established in past literature. Using a simplified Bernoulli-like equation, the ECAPE formula is modified to account for updraft enhancement via kinetic energy extracted from the cloud’s background environment. CAPE and ECAPE can be viewed as predictors of the maximum vertical velocity w max in an updraft. Hence, these formulas are evaluated using w max from past numerical modeling studies. Both of the new formulas improve predictions of w max substantially over commonly used diagnostic parameters, including undiluted CAPE and ECAPE with a constant prescribed entrainment rate. The formula that incorporates environmental kinetic energy contribution to the updraft correctly predicts instances of exceedance of by w max , and provides a conceptual explanation for why such exceedance is rare among past simulations. These formulas are potentially useful in nowcasting and forecasting thunderstorms and as thunderstorm proxies in climate change studies. Significance Statement Substantial mixing occurs between the upward-moving air currents in thunderstorms (updrafts) and the surrounding comparatively dry environmental air, through a process called entrainment. Entrainment controls thunderstorm intensity via its diluting effect on the buoyancy of air within updrafts. A challenge to representing entrainment in forecasting and predictions of the intensity of updrafts in future climates is to determine how much entrainment will occur in a given thunderstorm environment without a computationally expensive high-resolution simulation. To address this gap, this article derives a new formula that computes entrainment from the properties of a single environmental profile. This formula is shown to predict updraft vertical velocity more accurately than past diagnostics, and can be used in forecasting and climate prediction to improve predictions of thunderstorm behavior and impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote Influence of Andean Convection on Amazonian Rainfall and Its Mechanisms

Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 produce too much precipitation over the Andes but too little over the Amazon or the Wet Andes-Dry Amazon (WADA) bias pattern. Unlike the conventional view that convection parameterization and land model deficiencies can contribute to Amazonian rainfall biases, we approach this long-standing biased model behavior through the lens of Andean convection. Using Community Earth System Model v1.1 and focusing on the wet season, our mechanism-denial experiments demonstrate that Andean convection notably reduces precipitation over the Amazon during austral summer. The Andean forced Amazonian response operates on weather timescale. Furthermore, the reduction of Amazonian rainfall is detectable within a few hours after initial Andean forcing. The precipitation response is primarily driven by variations in the moisture budget and is moderated by changes in convective available potential energy over the Amazon. Changes in the total advection of moisture over the Amazon are dominated by the vertical advection term and can be attributed to discrepancies in the dynamic omega field. In the experiments, the Andean east flank region is scrutinized where the vertical velocity and moisture fields play an intermediary role for the Andean driven WADA connection. The Andean forcing induces descending anomalies on the Andean east flank. The disturbances of wind and geopotential fields over the Andean east flank propagate eastward via Kelvin waves. Over the Amazon, descending anomalies and advective drying lead to reduction of mid-to-high level cloud, increase of shortwave cloud forcing and surface net radiation, and enhancement of themodynamic stability and rainfall reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗