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This paper presents a reliability assessment of Reconfigurable Flight Control Systems using Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator (SURE) and Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool (ASSIST).
This paper reports the results of a study on reliability analysis of an AFTI-16 Self-Repairing Flight Control System (SRFCS) using software tools SURE (Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator and ASSIST (Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool). The purpose of the study is to investigate the potential utility of the software tools in the ongoing effort of the NASA Aviation Safety Program, where the class of systems must be extended beyond the originally intended serving class of electronic digital processors. The study concludes that SURE and ASSIST are applicable to reliability, analysis of flight control systems. They are especially efficient for sensitivity analysis that quantifies the dependence of system reliability on model parameters. The study also confirms an earlier finding on the dominant role of a parameter called a failure coverage. The paper will remark on issues related to the improvement of coverage and the optimization of redundancy level.
When designing vehicle vibration monitoring systems for aerospace devices, it is common to use well-established models of vibration features to determine whether failures or defects exist. Most of the algorithms used for failure detection rely on these models to detect significant changes in a flight environment. In actual practice, however, most vehicle vibration monitoring systems are corrupted by high rates of false alarms and missed detections. This crucial roadblock makes their implementation in real vehicles (e.g., helicopter transmissions and aircraft engines) difficult, making their operation costly and unreliable. Research conducted at the NASA Ames Research Center has determined that a major reason for the high rates of false alarms and missed detections is the numerous sources of statistical variations that are not taken into account in the modeling assumptions. In this paper, we address one such source of variations, namely, those caused during the design and manufacturing of rotating machinery components that make up aerospace systems. We present a novel way of modeling the vibration response by including design variations via probabilistic methods. Using such models, we develop a methodology to account for design and manufacturing variations, and explore the changes in the vibration response to determine its stochastic nature. We explore the potential of the methodology using a nonlinear cam-follower model, where the spring stiffness values are assumed to follow a normal distribution. The results demonstrate initial feasibility of the method, showing great promise in developing a general methodology for designing more accurate aerospace vehicle monitoring systems.
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft is a nadir pointing spacecraft that nominally controls the roll and pitch attitude based on the Earth Sensor Assembly (ESA) output. TRMM's nominal orbit altitude was 350 km, until raised to 402 km to prolong mission life. During the boost, the ESA experienced a decreasing signal to noise ratio, until sun interference at 393 km altitude made the ESA data unreliable for attitude determination. At that point, the backup attitude determination algorithm, an extended Kalman filter, was enabled. After the boost finished, TRMM reacquired its nadir-pointing attitude, and continued its mission. This paper will briefly discuss the boost and the decision to turn on the backup attitude determination algorithm. A description of the extended Kalman filter algorithm will be given. In addition, flight results from analyzing attitude data and the results of software changes made onboard TRMM will be discussed. Some lessons learned are presented.
The Space Launch Initiative (SLI), managed by the Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (2ndGen RLV) Program, was established to examine the possibility of revolutionizing space launch capabilities, define conceptual architectures, and concurrently identify the advanced technologies required to support a next-generation system. Initial Program funds have been allocated to design, evaluate, and formulate realistic plans leading to a 2nd Gen RLV full-scale development (FSD) decision by 2006. Program goals are to reduce both risk and cost for accessing the limitless opportunities afforded outside Earth's atmosphere fo civil, defense, and commercial enterprises. A 2nd Gen RLV architecture includes a reusable Earth-to-orbit launch vehicle, an on-orbit transport and return vehicle, ground and flight operations, mission planning, and both on-orbit and on-the-ground support infrastructures All segments of the architecture must advance in step with development of the RLV if a next-generation system is to be fully operational early next decade. However, experience shows that propulsion is the single largest contributor to unreliability during ascent, requires the largest expenditure of time for maintenance, and takes a long time to develop; therefore, propulsion is the key to meeting safety, reliability, and cost goals. For these reasons, propulsion is SLI's top technology investment area.
Ultrahigh temperature ceramics have performed unreliably due to material flaws and attachment design. These deficiencies are brought to the fore by the low fracture toughness and thermal shock resistance of UHTCs. If these deficiencies are overcome, we are still faced with poor oxidation resistance as a limitation on UHTC applicability to reusable launch vehicles. We have been addressing the deficiencies of UHTCs with our focus on composite constructions and functional grading to address the mechanical issues, and on composition modification to address the oxidation issue. The approaches and progress toward the latter are reported.
In the past, the design of rocket engines has primarily relied on the cold flow/hot fire test, and the empirical correlations developed based on the database from previous designs. However, it is very costly to fabricate and test various hardware designs during the design cycle, whereas the empirical model becomes unreliable in designing the advanced rocket engine where its operating conditions exceed the range of the database. The main goal of the 2nd Generation Reusable Launching Vehicle (GEN-II RLV) is to reduce the cost per payload and to extend the life of the hardware, which poses a great challenge to the rocket engine design. Hence, understanding the flow characteristics in each engine components is thus critical to the engine design. In the last few decades, the methodology of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been advanced to be a mature tool of analyzing various engine components. Therefore, it is important for the CFD design tool to be able to properly simulate the hot flow environment near the liquid injector, and thus to accurately predict the heat load to the injector faceplate. However, to date it is still not feasible to conduct CFD simulations of the detailed flowfield with very complicated geometries such as fluid flow and heat transfer in an injector assembly and through a porous plate, which requires gigantic computer memories and power to resolve the detailed geometry. The rigimesh (a sintered metal material), utilized to reduce the heat load to the faceplate, is one of the design concepts for the injector faceplate of the GEN-II RLV. In addition, the injector assembly is designed to distribute propellants into the combustion chamber of the liquid rocket engine. A porosity mode thus becomes a necessity for the CFD code in order to efficiently simulate the flow and heat transfer in these porous media, and maintain good accuracy in describing the flow fields. Currently, the FDNS (Finite Difference Navier-Stakes) code is one of the CFD codes which are most widely used by research engineers at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to simulate various flow problems related to rocket engines. The objective of this research work during the 10-week summer faculty fellowship program was to 1) debug the framework of the porosity model in the current FDNS code, and 2) validate the porosity model by simulating flows through various porous media such as tube banks and porous plate.
In this paper, we introduce plan-graph based heuristics to solve a variation of the conformant probabilistic planning (CPP) problem. In many real-world problems, it is the case that the sensors are unreliable or take too many resources to provide knowledge about the environment. These domains are better modeled as conformant planning problems. POMDP based techniques are currently the most successful approach for solving CPP but have the limitation of state- space explosion. Recent advances in deterministic and conformant planning have shown that plan-graphs can be used to enhance the performance significantly. We show that this enhancement can also be translated to CPP. We describe our process for developing the plan-graph heuristics and estimating the probability of a partial plan. We compare the performance of our planner PVHPOP when used with different heuristics. We also perform a comparison with a POMDP solver to show over a order of magnitude improvement in performance.
This investigation has had four main thrusts: 1) The analysis of seasonal variations of the Earth's gravitational field using Lageos 1 and 2 SLR data and comparisons to geophysical models. We have estimated the annual variation of the gravity field via a spherical harmonic expansion complete to degree and order 4. We have also constructed a similar model using models of the annual variation in the gravity field due to atmospheric, hydrologic, and ocean mass redistribution. These three models, when combined together, are in excellent agreement with the variations observed by satellite laser ranging. An article on these results was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. 2) The second thrust of our investigation has been to analyze the output of a Global Climate Model (GCM) to determine if the GRACE gravity mission can be expected to detect climate change signals. Working with Gary Russell at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), we have determined that there are several large secular signals that GRACE might be able to detect, including secular changes in snow cover, sea ice, polar ice, ocean mass, and other variables. It is possible that some of these signals could be detected with 5 years of GRACE measurements - its hard to judge this because the interannual variability in the GCM, which could mask the climate signals, is unreliable. Certainly a follow-on GRACE mission could detect these signals when compared to the data from the initial GRACE mission.). An article on these results will be published in the journal Journal of Geophysical Research. 3) In the last year of the investigation, we developed a new technique for analyzing temporal gravity variations using "geophysical fingerprints", which was successfully demonstrated on 20 years of satellite laser ranging data [Nerem et al., 20031. 4]. We also participated in a workshop on future satellite gravity measurements, which resulted in paper on measuring ocean mass variations using GRACE [Nerem et al., 20031 and on using laser interferometry for future gravity missions [Bender et al., 20031].
Ultra-high temperature ceramics (UHTC) have performed unreliably due to material flaws and attachment design. These deficiencies are brought to the fore by the low fracture toughness and thermal shock resistance of UHTC. If these deficiencies are overcome, we are still faced with poor oxidation resistance as a limitation on UHT applicability to reusable launch vehicles. We have been addressing the deficiencies of UHTC for the past two years via a small task at GRC that is in the Airframe part of the Next Generation Launch Technology Program. Our focus is on composite constructions and functional grading to address the mechanical issues and on composition modification to address the oxidation issue. The progress on approaches to improving oxidation resistance by alloying and functional grading will be reported. In particular, initial tests of tantalum additions have shown potential for major improvement. Less promising results of additional tests at higher temperatures will be presented. Two fabrication approaches are being pursued to produce carbon fiber reinforced UHTC composites: prepregging and rigid perform infiltration. Fabrication procedures and microstructures for composites will be reported.
Ultra-high temperature ceramics (UHTC) have performed unreliably due to material flaws and attachment design. These deficiencies are brought to the fore by the low fracture toughness and thermal shock resistance of UHTC. If these deficiencies are overcome, we are still faced with poor oxidation resistance as a limitation on UHTC applicability to reusable launch vehicles. We have been addressing the deficiencies of UHTC for the past two years via a small task at GRC that is in the Airframe part of the Next Generation Launch Technology Program. Our focus is on composite constructions and functional grading to address the mechanical issues and on composition modification to address the oxidation issue. The progress on approaches to improving oxidation resistance by alloying and functional grading will be reported. In particular, initial tests of tantalum additions have shown potential for major improvement. Results for additional tests at higher temperatures will be presented. These oxidation improvements are being incorporated in the composites approaches. Two fabrication approaches are being persued to produce carbon fiber reinforced UHTC composites: prepregging and rigid perform infiltration. Fabrication procedures, microstructures, and initial mechanical property and oxidation results for composites will be reported.
CHAMP is recording state-of-the-art magnetic and gravity field observations at altitudes ranging over roughly 300 - 550 km. However, anomaly continuation is severely limited by the non-uniqueness of the process and satellite anomaly errors. Indeed, our numerical anomaly simulations from satellite to airborne altitudes show that effective downward continuations of the CHAMP data are restricted to within approximately 50 km of the observation altitudes while upward continuations can be effective over a somewhat larger altitude range. The great unreliability of downward continuation requires that the satellite geopotential observations must be analyzed at satellite altitudes if the anomaly details are to be exploited most fully. Given current anomaly error levels, joint inversion of satellite and near- surface anomalies is the best approach for implementing satellite geopotential observations for subsurface studies. We demonstrate the power of this approach using a crustal model constrained by joint inversions of near-surface and satellite magnetic and gravity observations for Maude Rise, Antarctica, in the southwestern Indian Ocean. Our modeling suggests that the dominant satellite altitude magnetic anomalies are produced by crustal thickness variations and remanent magnetization of the normal polarity Cretaceous Quiet Zone.
A product line of improved electrohydraulic linear actuators has been developed. These actuators are designed especially for use in actuating valves in rocket-engine test facilities. They are also adaptable to similar industrial uses. The advantageous features of the improved electrohydraulic linear actuators are best described with respect to shortcomings of prior electrohydraulic linear actuators that the improved ones are intended to supplant. The shortcomings are the following: They perform unreliably and inconsistently as positioning devices. Their capabilities for end-of-stroke buffering (that is, deceleration to gentle stops at designated stopping positions) range from unsatisfactory to nonexistent, with consequent potential for inducing catastrophic failures. It takes long times to modify standard actuators to meet specifications, and the costs of such modifications are high. In the cases of actuators equipped with fail-safe shutdown systems, the stroking times of these systems cannot be adjusted in the field.
Finding the subset of a set of imperfect devices (e.g., nano or micro devices) that results in the best aggregate device is a challenging problem. It is an abstraction of what will likely be a major difficulty in designing and controlling systems of nano or micro-scale components, particularly when a large fraction of those components may be unreliable. Rather than approaching this as a passive search problem, we transform the problem into one of coordination in a complex system by imbuing each device with simple decision making ability. In doing so we face the challenge of determining what each component should attempt to do so that the collective behavior solves the overall problem. Furthermore, in this padicular instance, we face problems of scaling (number of components in the thousands to tens of thousands), observability (components have limited sensing capabilities), and reliability (the components are faulty). We present an approach based on deriving component goals that are aligned with the overall system goal (e.g., forming best aggregate device), and can be computed using information readily (e.g., locally) available to the components. Then, each component in such a collective uses a simple reinforcement learning algorithm to selfishly pursue its own goals. Because those goals are derived in a principled manner, there is no need to use external mechanisms to force collaboration or coordination among the components to ensure that the system reaches a globally desirable solution. The results show that not only this approach provides improvements of over an order of magnitude over both traditional search methods and traditional multi-agent methods, but that the gains increase with the size of the system. This latter result makes this method ideal for domains where the number of components is currently in the thousands and will reach millions in the near future.
It has long been known that ocular pursuit of a moving target has a major influence on its perceived speed (Aubert, 1886; Fleischl, 1882). However, little is known about the effect of smooth pursuit on the perception of target direction. Here we compare the precision of human visual-direction judgments under two oculomotor conditions (pursuit vs. fixation). We also examine the impact of stimulus duration (200 ms vs. ~800 ms) and absolute direction (cardinal vs. oblique). Our main finding is that direction discrimination thresholds in the fixation and pursuit conditions are indistinguishable. Furthermore, the two oculomotor conditions showed oblique effects of similar magnitudes. These data suggest that the neural direction signals supporting perception are the same with or without pursuit, despite remarkably different retinal stimulation. During fixation, the stimulus information is restricted to large, purely peripheral retinal motion, while during steady-state pursuit, the stimulus information consists of small, unreliable foveal retinal motion and a large efference-copy signal. A parsimonious explanation of our findings is that the signal limiting the precision of direction judgments is a neural estimate of target motion in head-centered (or world-centered) coordinates (i.e., a combined retinal and eye motion signal) as found in the medial superior temporal area (MST), and not simply an estimate of retinal motion as found in the middle temporal area (MT).
To survive in deep subsurface environments, lithotrophic microbial communities require a sustainable energy source such as hydrogen. Though H2 can be produced when water reacts with fresh mineral surfaces and oxidizes ferrous iron, this reaction is unreliable since it depends upon the exposure of fresh rock surfaces via the episodic opening of cracks and fissures. A more reliable and potentially more voluminous H2 source exists in nominally anhydrous minerals of igneous and metamorphic rocks. Our experimental results indicate that H2 molecules can be derived from small amounts of H2O dissolved in minerals in the form of hydroxyl, OH- or O3Si-OH, whenever such minerals crystallized in an H2O-laden environment. Two types of experiments were conducted. Single crystal fracture experiments indicated that hydroxyl pairs undergo an in situ redox conversion to H2 molecules plus peroxy links, O3Si/OO\SiO3. While the peroxy links become part of the mineral structure, the H2 molecules diffused out of the freshly fractured mineral surfaces. If such a mechanism occurred in natural settings, the entire rock column would become a volume source of H2. Crushing experiments to facilitate the outdiffusion of H2 were conducted with common crustal igneous rocks such as granite, andesite, and labradorite. At least 70 nmol of H2/g diffused out of coarsely crushed andesite, equivalent at standard pressure and temperature to 5,000 cm3 of H2/m3 of rock. In the water-saturated, biologically relevant upper portion of the rock column, the diffusion of H2 out of the minerals will be buffered by H2 saturation of the intergranular water film.
Automatic or skill-based behaviour is generally considered to be less prone to error than behaviour directed by conscious control. However, researchers who have applied Rasmussen's skill-rule-knowledge human error framework to accidents and incidents have sometimes found that skill-based errors appear in significant numbers. It is proposed that this is largely a reflection of the opportunities for error which workplaces present and does not indicate that skill-based behaviour is intrinsically unreliable. In the current study, 99 errors reported by 72 aircraft mechanics were examined in the light of a task analysis based on observations of the work of 25 aircraft mechanics. The task analysis identified the opportunities for error presented at various stages of maintenance work packages and by the job as a whole. Once the frequency of each error type was normalized in terms of the opportunities for error, it became apparent that skill-based performance is more reliable than rule-based performance, which is in turn more reliable than knowledge-based performance. The results reinforce the belief that industrial safety interventions designed to reduce errors would best be directed at those aspects of jobs that involve rule- and knowledge-based performance.
Ultrahigh temperature ceramics (UHTC) have performed unreliably due to material flaws and attachment design. These deficiencies are brought to the fore by the low fracture toughness and thermal shock resistance of the UHTC. If these deficiencies are overcome, we are still faced with poor oxidation resistance as a limitation on UHTC applicability to reusable launch vehicles. We have been addressing the deficiencies of UHTC for the past two years via a small task at GRC that is in the Airframe part of the Next Generation Launch Technology Program. Our focus is on composite constructions and functional grading to address the mechanical issues and on composition modification to address the oxidation issue. The progress on approaches to improving oxidation resistance by alloying and functional grading will be reported.