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At least 199 records · Page 11

Global Building Decarbonization Trends and Strategies

It is evident from extreme weather patterns that climate change is impacting the whole world. The consequences in the form of unpredicted severe weather conditions, hurricanes, floods, and wildfires have been disrupting national economies and affecting lives across the globe. As the global economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, the temporary drop in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly caused due to travel bans and economic slowdowns is no longer the case and, moving forward, controlling the increase in GHG emissions has emerged as a global challenge. The impact of climate change has enabled an acknowledgement of the challenge and this coincided with the rapid development of clean energy technologies for buildings, transportation, and industrial sectors, while ensuring a significant reduction in costs for their wide implementation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Operation at Reduced Atmospheric Pressure and Concept of Reliability Redundancy for Optimized Design of Insulation Systems

Electrified transportation is calling for insulation design criteria that is adequate to provide elevated levels of power density, power dynamics and reliability. Increasing voltage levels are expected to cause accelerated intrinsic and extrinsic aging effects which will not be easily predictable at the design stage due to a lack of suitable modeling. Designing reliable insulation systems would require finding solutions able to control accelerated aging due to an unpredictable increase of intrinsic stresses and the onset of extrinsic stresses as partial discharges. This paper proposes the concept of reliability redundancy for the insulation design of aerospace electrical asset components, which is also validated at lower-than-standard atmospheric pressure. The principle is that extrinsic-aging-free design might be achieved upon determining the aging stress or abnormal service stresses distribution and being sure that aging will not generate conditions that can incept extrinsic aging (partial discharges) during operation life. However, such information is never, in practice, fully available to insulation system designers. Hence, especially in critical applications such as electrified aircraft, aerospace, and combat ships a further level of reliability should be added to a partial-discharge-free design, which can consist of the use of corona-resistant materials and/or of life models able to consider the accelerated aging effect of partial discharges (or any other type of extrinsic-accelerated aging factor). Innovative life modeling considering both extrinsic and intrinsic aging stresses, insulating material testing to estimate model parameters, and a metric for quantifying the extent of corona (or partial discharge) resistance can lead to establishing feasibility and limit conditions for optimized or fully reliability-redundant design. It is shown in the paper that if an extrinsic-aging-free design is not feasible, and it is therefore replaced by a redundant design, a further level of reliability redundancy can be provided by effective condition monitoring plans.

Montanari, Gian Carlo↗

Rare Earth Element (REE) and Critical Mineral Fractions of Central Appalachian Coal-Related Strata Determined by 7-Step Sequential Extraction

Rare earth elements (REEs) and critical minerals (CMs) are used in many modern industries, including the automotive sector, generation and storage, clean energy, and defense. The demand for REEs is increasing, and the REE supply chain is unpredictable. The US has driven to assess non-conventional sources of REE (such as coal underclay) to identify domestic resources to stabilize this uncertainty in supply. Knowledge of the minerology, distribution, and modes of occurrence of REEs is integral to the assessment of non-conventional sources. Additionally, extraction techniques can be optimized and targeted when REE distribution in different solid fractions from source material is understood. In this study, four bituminous coal-related samples associated with the Lower and Middle Kittanning coal seams in the Appalachian Basin (US) underwent a seven-step sequential extraction procedure, primarily targeting the water-soluble, exchangeable, acid soluble, mildly reducible, moderately reducible, strongly reducible, and oxidizable fractions. The REE and other elements of interest from each extraction step were analyzed, and the percentages of element extracted from raw solids were calculated. REEs extracted from the total seven steps were reported as the extractable fraction, whereas the fractions in the residual solids were reported as the non-extractable fraction. Less than 6% of REE were extracted from three samples. Twenty-one percent of REE was extracted from the fourth sample, mainly from the steps targeting oxidizable and exchangeable phases. Co-extraction of critical metals (Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn) occurred during the oxidizable, exchangeable, acid soluble, and water-soluble steps for the four samples. In the extracted fractions, the four samples all exhibited a middle and heavy REE enrichment relative to light REE. The mobility of major cation (e.g., Ca, Fe, and P) and REE is associated with exchangeable, oxidizable, and acid soluble fractions. Non-extractable REE is likely held in refractory apatitic phases, and/or primary REE-phosphates (e.g., monazite and xenotime).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Divergent Metabolic Changes in Rhizomes of Lowland and Upland Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) from Early Season through Dormancy Onset

High-biomass-yielding southerly adapted switchgrasses (Panicum virgatum L.) frequently suffer from unpredictable winter hardiness at more northerly sites arising from damage to rhizomes that prevent effective spring regrowth. Previously, changes occurring over the growing season in rhizomes sampled from a cold-adapted tetraploid upland cultivar, Summer, demonstrated a role for abscisic acid (ABA), starch accumulation, and transcriptional reprogramming as drivers of dormancy onset and potential keys to rhizome health during winter dormancy. Here, rhizome metabolism of a high-yielding southerly adapted tetraploid switchgrass cultivar, Kanlow—which is a significant source of genetics for yield improvement—was studied over a growing season at a northern site. Metabolite levels and transcript abundances were combined to develop physiological profiles accompanying greening through the onset of dormancy in Kanlow rhizomes. Next, comparisons of the data to rhizome metabolism occurring in the adapted upland cultivar Summer were performed. These data revealed both similarities as well as numerous differences in rhizome metabolism that were indicative of physiological adaptations unique to each cultivar. Similarities included elevated ABA levels and accumulation of starch in rhizomes during dormancy onset. Notable differences were observed in the accumulation of specific metabolites, the expression of genes encoding transcription factors, and several enzymes linked to primary metabolism.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Propellant Mass Gauging in a Spherical Tank under Micro-Gravity Conditions Using Capacitance Plate Arrays and Machine Learning

Propellant mass gauging under micro-gravity conditions is a challenging task due to the unpredictable position and shape of the fuel body inside the tank. Micro-gravity conditions are common for orbiting satellites and rockets that operate on limited fuel supplies. Capacitance sensors have been investigated for this task in recent years; however, the effect of various positions and shapes of the fuel body is not analyzed in detail. In this paper, we investigate this with various fill types, such as annular, core-annular, and stratified fills at different positions. We compare the performance among several curve-fitting-based approaches and a machine-learning-based approach, the latter of which offers superior performance in estimating the fuel content.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Four-Stage Multi-Physics Simulations to Assist Temperature Sensor Design for Industrial-Scale Coal-Fired Boiler

The growth of renewable energy sources presents a pressing challenge to the operation and maintenance of existing fossil fuel power plants, given that fossil fuel remains the predominant fuel source, responsible for over 60% of electricity generation in the United States. One of the main concerns within these fossil fuel power plants is the unpredictable failure of boiler tubes, resulting in emergency maintenance with significant economic and societal consequences. A reliable high-temperature sensor is necessary for in situ monitoring of boiler tubes and the safety of fossil fuel power plants. In this study, a comprehensive four-stage multi-physics computational framework is developed to assist the design, optimization installation, and operation of the high-temperature stainless-steel and quartz coaxial cable sensor (SSQ-CCS) for coal-fired boiler applications. With the consideration of various operation conditions, we predict the distributions of flue gas temperatures within coal-fired boilers, the temperature correlation between the boiler tube and SSQ-CCS, and the safety of SSQ-CCS. With the simulation-guided sensor installation plan, the newly designed SSQ-CCSs have been employed for field testing for more than 430 days. The computational framework developed in this work can guide the future operation of coal-fired plants and other power plants for the safety prediction of boiler operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Deletion of CD2-Like (CD2v) and C-Type Lectin-Like (EP153R) Genes from African Swine Fever Virus Georgia-Δ9GL Abrogates Its Effectiveness as an Experimental Vaccine

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is currently the most dreaded infectious disease affecting the global swine production industry. There is no commercial vaccine available, making the culling of infected animals the current solution to control outbreaks. Effective experimental vaccines have been developed by deleting virus genes associated with virulence. Deletion of the ASFV 9GL gene (Δ9GL) has resulted in the attenuation of different ASFV strains, although the degree of attenuation varies across isolates. Here, we investigated the possibility of the increased safety of the experimental vaccine strain ASFV-G-Δ9GL by deleting two additional virus genes involved in pathogenesis, CD2v, a CD2 like viral encoded gene from the EP402R open reading frame (ORF), and C-type lectin-like viral gene, encoded from the EP153R ORF. Two new recombinant viruses were developed, ASFV-G-Δ9GL/ΔCD2v and ASFV-G-Δ9GL/ΔCD2v/ΔEP153R, harboring two and three gene deletions, respectively. ASFV-G-Δ9GL/ΔCD2v/ΔEP153R, but not ASFV-G-Δ9GL/ΔCD2v, had a decreased ability to replicate in vitro in swine macrophage cultures when compared with parental ASFV-G-Δ9GL. Importantly, ASFV-G-Δ9GL/ΔCD2v and ASFV-G-Δ9GL/ΔCD2v/ΔEP153R induced almost undetectable viremia levels when inoculated into domestic pigs and failed to protect them against challenge with parental virulent ASFV-Georgia, while ASFV-G-Δ9GL offered robust protection during challenge. Therefore, the deletion of CD2-like and C-type lectin-like genes significantly decreased the protective potential of ASFV-G-Δ9GL as a vaccine candidate. This study constitutes an example of the unpredictability of genetic manipulation involving the simultaneous deletion of multiple genes from the ASFV genome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A ‘Nuclear Bomb’ or Just ‘a Joke’? Groundwater Models May Help Communicate Nuanced Risks to the Great Salt Lake

The Great Salt Lake entered the zeitgeist of environmental concern in 2022 when a coalition of scientists and activists warned in a highly publicized report that the lake might be just five years away from complete desiccation, a possibility one state official warned was tantamount to an “environmental nuclear bomb”. Shortly thereafter, an unpredicted and unprecedented pluvial winter resulted in an increase in inflow, temporarily halting the lake’s decline and prompting Utah’s governor to mock the dire prediction as “a joke”, an outcome that speaks to the tension between agenda-setting and trust-building that researchers face when sharing worst-case warnings, particularly those based on short-term variability. Here, we describe a robust relationship between the lake and groundwater in the surrounding region and demonstrate how coupled models can thus be used to improve lake elevation predictions, suggesting that while the situation may not be as dire as some have warned, the lake remains at long-term risk as a result of climate warming. We further suggest that efforts to communicate the risk of future desiccation should be informed by stochastic variability and guided by long-term fluctuations in the total water storage of the endorheic lake’s watershed.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Controlled Islanding Strategy Considering Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Sources Based on Chance-constrained Model

Controlled islanding plays an essential role in preventing the blackout of power systems. Although there are several studies on this topic in the past, not enough attention is paid to the uncertainty brought by renewable energy sources (RESs) that may cause unpredictable unbalanced power and the observability of power systems after islanding that is essential for back-up black-start measures. Therefore, a novel controlled islanding model based on mixed-integer second-order cone and chance-constrained programming (MISOCCP) is proposed to address these issues. First, the uncertainty of RESs is characterized by their possibility distribution models with chance constraints, and the requirements, e. g., system observ-ability, for rapid back-up black-start measures are also considered. Then, a law of large numbers (LLN) based method is employed for converting the chance constraints into deterministic ones and reformulating the non-convex model into convex one. Finally, case studies on the revised IEEE 39-bus and 118-bus power systems as well as the comparisons among different models are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model can result in less unbalanced power and better observability after islanding compared with other models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

Rethinking the Role of Financial Transmission Rights in Wind-Rich Electricity Markets in the Central U.S.

Transmission congestion can cause a divergence between wholesale power prices at the individual pricing nodes where power is generated and the more-liquid trading hubs where that power is often delivered and sold. This nodal price difference is commonly referred to as the “locational basis” (or just “basis”). Because the basis varies over time, it can—if not hedged—unpredictably affect a wind plant’s revenue and/or value, which increases investor risk and potentially slows deployment. We find wind plants typically face a larger and more-negative basis than do thermal generators, and hence are more-negatively impacted by congestion. Moreover, while most thermal generators can effectively hedge basis risk by purchasing conventional fixed-volume financial transmission rights (FTRs), these fixed-volume FTRs do not effectively hedge basis risk for variable wind generation. More-effective hedging mechanisms may be required to support those generators most-impacted by congestion, and to promote continued investment in variable generation resources in congested markets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Timber Harvesting Economics in Early Commercial Thinning and Group Selection Prescriptions

Forest management decisions that consider both short- and long-term objectives are becoming more challenging and costly, due to market uncertainty, labor shortages, and the evolving forest industry. Under such unpredictable circumstances, a better understanding of the production economics of various silvicultural prescriptions is crucial in implementing sound forest management activities. The objectives of this study were to: a) estimate stump to landing productivity and cost for Early Commercial Thinning (ECT) and Group Selection (GS) prescriptions; and b) compare the harvest system cost ($/PMH) using machine rate and PATH (Planning and Analysis in Timber Harvesting) methods. Detailed time-motion studies were conducted in the spruce-fir forest of Northern Maine, USA, during the summer of 2019. The results, as expected, indicated the harvesting costs were 23% higher for ECT (21.08 $/m3) compared to GS (16.32 $/m3). The average productivity of the harvester and forwarder were reduced by 15 and 37%, respectively, for ECT compared to GS. The estimated harvesting system cost ($/PMH) was 4% higher as indicated by PATH compared to machine rate method. Higher operational productivity in GS can be attributed to the larger volume of logs, and shorter travel loaded distance than ECT. These findings can help forest managers make more informed decisions while implementing appropriate silvicultural prescriptions under varying conditions based on management objectives and market conditions.

Forestry↗

Ghostbusters for Batteries

End-of-life lithium-ion batteries are Class 9 hazardous materials due to flammability of electrolyte and lithium. It is why the transportation cost ranges from $2.49/kg - $7.20/kg for civilian and defense disposition, that is over 50% of the cost of recycling. Damaged batteries have many times greater transportation cost. Dead batteries require costly bunker-storage that occupies real estate and personnel that could be used for productive purposes. Insurance is expensive and accidents are almost assured even with relatively low volumes of waste. Tipping fees on top of this adds an unpredictable, inflated cost for the EV industry, which is very cost sensitive for survival. Transforming lithium-ion into a class of non-hazardous material reduces transportation cost to $0.10/kg, providing a value opportunity of ~$2/kg to ~$6/kg for civilian and defense disposition respectively. OnTo can eliminate the risk of thermal runaway with a brief, non-toxic treatment to eliminate flammability and toxic risks in most any battery, except Pb, which is inherently toxic. With the service, OnTo also can provide rigorous certainty that cells are rendered inert. OnTo’s patented and patent pending deactivation technology improves the cost and safety for disposition of end-of-life lithium-ion battery packs and cells. Deactivation uses non-toxic chemical processing to remove inherent risks in lithium-ion and other primary and secondary chemistries. The technology has been demonstrated and developed through DOE contract with OnTo Technology LLC (EE0008475).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Voices of Experience: Microgrids for Resiliency

Modern attitudes around microgrids have evolved, from the idea that microgrids represent "grid defection" to perceiving them as a tool that utilities can use to solve challenges. One such challenge is improving resiliency. Faced with unpredictable, yet intensifying and dynamic weather and cyber risks, the value of resiliency is only growing for utility customers, regulators, and policymakers. Moreover, policymakers and regulators are increasingly asking utilities to accommodate the expansion and enhancement of such resiliency. The purpose of Voices of Experience: Microgrids for Resiliency is to guide discussions around this topic - everything from defining the many types of microgrids, to siting, ownership, control, and value streams. Utilities who participated in this project were generous with their time, insights, and examples of how they are using microgrids to solve one of their most urgent challenges: resiliency.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Performance Evaluation of High-Temperature Ultrasonic Communication System

Ultrasonic communication is a technique that allows transmitting information through a solid material such as tubes or bars using high-frequency elastic waves. The communication channels often extend into a high-temperature range in the field of power, oil, or nuclear industry. When the temperature is taken into consideration, the ultrasonic wave propagation through the solid channel is complex and unpredictable. It is necessary to study the influence of temperature on the ultrasonic guided wave to improve ultrasonic communication. In this study, a temperature control system is assembled to adjust the temperature of a steel pipe channel ranging from room temperature to 150 degrees C. The temperature performance evaluation is conducted to estimate the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and bit error rate (BER) of transferring the ultrasonic signal. The work aims to develop a reliable ultrasonic communication system in a high-temperature environment. The system temperature can be maintained at 150 degrees C and the LiNbO3 transducers are used as transmitters and receivers. No power amplifier is used in the communication system. The high-temperature ultrasonic communication system (HT-UCS) is feasible at 150 degrees C and can achieve a bit rate of 10 kbps without any error.

HT-UCS↗

DYFLOW: A flexible framework for orchestrating scientific workflows on supercomputers

Modern scientific workflows are increasing in complexity with growth in computation power, incorporation of non-traditional computation methods, and advances in technologies enabling data streaming to support on-the-fly computation. These workflows have unpredictable runtime behaviors, and a fixed, predetermined resource assignment on supercomputers can be inefficient for overall performance and throughput. Inability to change resource assignments further limits the scientists to avail of science-driven opportunities or respond to failures.We introduce DYFLOW, a flexible framework that orchestrates scientific workflows on supercomputers based on user-designed policies. DYFLOW compartmentalizes orchestration stages into simplified constructs, and end-users can program and reuse them according to their workflow requirements through an easy-to-use interface. These constructs hide the intricacies involved in runtime management from end-users, for instance, procurement of information to understand the workflow state, assessment, and supervision of the runtime changes. DYFLOW is designed to work alongside existing workflow management systems and reuse the available (static) support for workflow management. We have integrated DYFLOW with an existing workflow management tool as a demonstration. With experiments performed on use cases from three types of scientific workflows and two different parallel architectures, we show that DYFLOW achieves the desired orchestration incurring a small cost to carry out the runtime changes.

Singhal, Swati↗

Assessment of Economic Impact of Permitting Timelines on Produced Geothermal Power in Imperial County, California

Despite having a large geothermal power potential in the United States, only a small fraction has been developed for power generation. Various barriers, including technical, financial, and regulatory permit delays, are attributed to lower contribution of geothermal energy in the national grid. Unpredictable environmental reviews and permitting timelines are some of the non-technical barriers that can cause delays in geothermal exploration and utilization plans. Our study shows that the geothermal permitting timelines can vary from six months to several years, depending on the presence or absence of biological resources, cultural resources, and sensitive environmental issues at the project site. The potential impacts of these permit barriers can range from investors abandoning geothermal development to making the product (i.e., electricity) more expensive and uncompetitive. In this study, we conducted economic analysis to assess the impact of permitting timelines on cost of produced electricity from geothermal resources using data from existing geothermal plants as well as prospective sites. In this paper, we present collected timelines data, approach, and results of economic impact of permitting timelines on geothermal power. We evaluated the various environmental management and permit review processes by considering a hypothetical geothermal project in the Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area. Because of the variety of the biological and environmental issues and the involvement of local, state, and federal agencies with overlapping jurisdictions, this project could go through one of the many California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review scenarios that range from the least to the most complex in its circumstances. The fastest CEQA/NEPA review timelines would have the project completed in six years. In contrast, the project would substantially need longer time to complete if it were located in an area with significant environmental resources or cultural issues that required permitting from various agencies. With increasing project completion timelines, the simplified levelized cost of electricity (sLCOE) can be 4 to 11% higher with longer CEQA/NEPA review timelines than the sLCOE value with the fastest CEQA/NEPA review timeline. Lengthier CEQA/NEPA review timelines could also result in loss of $64 million to $227 million in potential revenue. Such significant economic impacts could determine the success of a geothermal project.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Robustifying Links To Combat Reference Rot

Links to web resources frequently break, and linked content can change at unpredictable rates. These dynamics of the Web are detrimental when references to web resources provide evidence or supporting information. In this paper, we highlight the significance of reference rot, provide an overview of existing techniques and their characteristics to address it, and introduce our Robust Links approach, including its web service and underlying API. Robustifying links offers a proactive, uniform, and machine-actionable way to combat reference rot. In addition, we discuss our reasoning and approach aimed at keeping the approach functional for the long term. To showcase our approach, we have robustified all links in this article.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗