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193 records · Page 11

The Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey. II. A Public Statistical Sample for Exploring Supernova Demographics

Here we present a public catalog of transients from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Bright Transient Survey, a magnitude-limited ( m < 19 mag in either the g or r filter) survey for extragalactic transients in the ZTF public stream. We introduce cuts on survey coverage, sky visibility around peak light, and other properties unconnected to the nature of the transient, and show that the resulting statistical sample is spectroscopically 97% complete at <18 mag, 93% complete at <18.5 mag, and 75% complete at <19 mag. We summarize the fundamental properties of this population, identifying distinct duration–luminosity correlations in a variety of supernova (SN) classes and associating the majority of fast optical transients with well-established spectroscopic SN types (primarily SN Ibn and II/IIb). We measure the Type Ia SN and core-collapse (CC) SN rates and luminosity functions, which show good consistency with recent work. About 7% of CC SNe explode in very low-luminosity galaxies ( M i > –16 mag), 10% in red-sequence galaxies, and 1% in massive ellipticals. We find no significant difference in the luminosity or color distributions between the host galaxies of SNe Type II and SNe Type Ib/c, suggesting that line-driven wind stripping does not play a major role in the loss of the hydrogen envelope from their progenitors. Future large-scale classification efforts with ZTF and other wide-area surveys will provide high-quality measurements of the rates, properties, and environments of all known types of optical transients and limits on the existence of theoretically predicted but as yet unobserved explosions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Feasibility of Correlated Extensive Air Shower Detection with a Distributed Cosmic-Ray Network

We explore the sensitivity offered by a global network of cosmic-ray detectors to a novel, unobserved phenomenon: widely separated simultaneous extended air showers. Existing localized observatories work independently to observe individual showers, offering insight into the source and nature of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays. However no current observatory is large enough to provide sensitivity to anticipated processes such as the Gerasimova–Zatsepin effect or potential new physics that generate simultaneous air showers separated by hundreds to thousands of kilometers. A global network of consumer electronics (the Cosmic Rays Found In Smartphones (CRAYFIS) experiment), may provide a novel opportunity for observation of such phenomena. Two user scenarios are explored. In the first, with maximal user adoption, we find that statistically significant discoveries of spatially separated but coincident showers are possible within a couple years. In the second, more practical adoption model with 10 6 active devices, we find a worldwide CRAYFIS to be sensitive to novel "burst" phenomena where many simultaneous extensive air showers (EAS) occur at once.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Recurrent Activity from Active Asteroid (248370) 2005 QN 173 : A Main-belt Comet

We present archival observations of main-belt asteroid (248370) 2005 QN 173 (also designated 433P) that demonstrate this recently discovered active asteroid (a body with a dynamically asteroidal orbit displaying a tail or coma) has had at least one additional apparition of activity near perihelion during a prior orbit. We discovered evidence of this second activity epoch in an image captured 2016 July 22 with the DECam on the 4 m Blanco telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile. As of this writing, (248370) 2005 QN 173 is just the eighth active asteroid demonstrated to undergo recurrent activity near perihelion. Our analyses demonstrate (248370) 2005 QN 173 is likely a member of the active asteroid subset known as main-belt comets, a group of objects that orbit in the main asteroid belt that exhibit activity that is specifically driven by sublimation. We implement an activity detection technique, wedge photometry, that has the potential to detect tails in images of solar system objects and quantify their agreement with computed antisolar and antimotion vectors normally associated with observed tail directions. We present a catalog and an image gallery of archival observations. The object will soon become unobservable as it passes behind the Sun as seen from Earth, and when it again becomes visible (late 2022) it will be farther than 3 au from the Sun. Our findings suggest (248370) 2005 QN 173 is most active interior to 2.7 au (0.3 au from perihelion), so we encourage the community to observe and study this special object before 2021 December.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Elementary Composite Binary and Grain Alignment Locked in Dust Growth

Abstract Planets are known to grow out of a star-encircling disk of the gas and dust inherited from an interstellar cloud; their formation is thought to begin with coagulation of submicron dust grains into aggregates, the first foundational stage of planet formation. However, with nanoscale and submicron solids unobservable directly in the interstellar medium (ISM) and protoplanetary disks, how dust grains grow is unclear, as are the morphology and structure of interstellar grains and the whereabouts and form of “missing iron.” Here we show an elementary composite binary in 3D sub-10 nm detail—and the alignments of its two subunits and nanoinclusions and a population of elongated composite grains locked in a primitive cosmic dust particle—noninvasively uncovered with phase-contrast X-ray nanotomography. The binary comprises a pair of oblate, quasi-spheroidal grains whose alignment and shape meet the astrophysical constraints on polarizing interstellar grains. Each member of the pair contains a high-density core of octahedral nanocrystals whose twin relationship is consistent with the magnetite’s diagnostic property at low temperatures, with a mantle exhibiting nanoscale heterogeneities, rounded edges, and pitted surfaces. This elongated binary evidently formed from an axially aligned collision of the two similar composite grains whose core–mantle structure and density gradients are consistent with interstellar processes and astronomical evidence for differential depletion. Our findings suggest that the ISM is threaded with dust grains containing preferentially oriented iron-rich magnetic nanocrystals that hold answers to astronomical problems from dust evolution, grain alignment, and the structure of magnetic fields to planetesimal growth.

Hu, Z. W. (ORCID:0000000278648830)↗

Performance of reanalysis and mesoscale models off the coast of Hawai'i

The eastern Hawai'i coast in the United States is characterized by considerable wind resource fuelled by persistent trade winds, making it an important area for energy research. The need is strong for reanalyses and higher-resolution regional simulations where observations have been historically limited, such as Hawai'i's offshore environments. However, studies using offshore observations in other parts of the world have shown that significant errors can occur in reanalyses and wind datasets, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of wind energy generation, payback periods, and extreme weather risks at project locations. The degree of such errors is influenced by a number of factors, including spatial resolution and the handling of processes within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In this work, we provide a wind resource characterization from year-long lidar buoy measurements off the eastern coast of O'ahu, Hawai'i, an environment previously unobserved at the rotor level, and use the characterization to evaluate the performance of two simulation datasets. The O'ahu deployment location is meteorologically unique and less complex than land-based wind resource characterizations, being strongly characterized by trade winds with minimal land–atmosphere interaction influences. Despite the unique and fairly consistent meteorological conditions, we hypothesize that distinct simulation datasets will exhibit diverse ranges of errors similar to those that have been seen for other offshore locations. We find the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) to strongly underestimate observed wind speeds at the O'ahu location (bias = −1.54 m s −1 at a height of 140 m above sea level), while a regional Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation produced by the University of Hawai'i (UH-WRF) provides a significantly smaller wind speed bias (−0.25 m s −1 ), highlighting the value of running regional, higher-resolution simulations. The large bias noted for ERA5 is driven by significant underestimation of fast wind speeds (>9 m s −1 ), which the study site is largely characterized by, along with discontinuities in the ERA5 diurnal cycle. We also speculate that the relative sparsity of observations for data assimilation in this remote part of the world could influence the performance of ERA5 and that challenges with characterizing island effects could impact the performance of both datasets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Maximal Entanglement Limit in Statistical and High-energy Physics

These lectures advocate the idea that quantum entanglement provides a unifying foundation for both statistical physics and high-energy interactions. I argue that, at sufficiently long times or high energies, most quantum systems approach a Maximal Entanglement Limit (MEL) in which phases of quantum states become unobservable, reduced density matrices acquire a thermal form, and probabilistic descriptions emerge without invoking ergodicity or classical randomness. Within this framework, the emergence of probabilistic parton model, thermalization in the break-up of confining strings and in high-energy collisions, and the universal small-x behavior of structure functions arise as direct consequences of entanglement and geometry of high-dimensional Hilbert space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integrated GW Farm ABM

This Data Repository includes data used for the integrated groundwater- farm ABM model, raw model output from scenario ensemble, and processed outputs that isolate the groundwater storage depletion outcomes for the 35,000 farm cells. Model Inputs: Farm ABM Inputs: This folder contains the input data used by the integrated groundwater - farm ABM modelling script (Python file) used for the high performance computing (HPC) experiments. The sub-folder "data inputs" contains all of the farm attribute data, while the three files in the folder have the hydrogeological data lookup table (NLDAS Cost Curve Attributes.csv), a lookup table (Theis well function table.csv) for the groundwater cost curve function, and the farm indexes and corresponding NLDAS ids for all of the cells run in this experiment (nldas farms subset final.csv). NLDAS Cost curve hydrogeological data: Hydrogeological data aggregated to 1/8 degree resolution and aligned with the NLDAS grid. Parameters include: water depth below ground surface [meters], subsurface porosity [unitless], aquifer depth from ground surface to aquifer bottom [meters], annual average recharge (USGS: mm, Doll: meters), and three different hydraulic conductivity (K) values (meters/day). The three K values represent the mean value from Gleeson et al. (2018), one standard deviation above the mean from Gleeson et al. (2018), and the de Graaf et al. 2020 modifications to certain lithologies. Additional information about these datasets and their processing are documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). Output: Raw outputs: This folder contains a .zip file that has model outputs for the entire scenario ensemble. There is one csv for each farm id, using the format "farm farmid cases.csv". The relationship between the farm id and NLDAS id is defined by the "nldas farms subset final.csv" located in the Farm ABM Inputs folder. Each csv has 625 rows, corresponding to 625 combinations of different scenario parameter values. Each row (scenario) represents the outcome of a 100 year simulation. Columns define scenario settings and summary statistics for each scenario. The first four columns define the scenario settings: "hydro ratio," "econ ratio," "K scenario," and "gamma scenario." The hydro and econ ratios are values passed to the modeling script that influence multipliers for other model parameters, as documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). The gamma multiplier is a coefficient multiplier applied to the baseline gamma values (values below 1 represent lower unobserved costs compared to baseline, values above 1 represent higher costs). The K scenario names represent K values of: "low": 0.5 m/d, "int 1": 2.5 m/d, "int 2": 10 m/d, "high": 50 m/d, and "gleeson": mean Gleeson K value. "Perc vol depleted" is the fraction of groundwater depleted at the end of the 100 simulation. Processed Output: Derived depletion outcomes from raw outputs: All of the individual csv files from the Raw outputs were aggregated into a single file that has the scenario settings and fraction depletion "Perc vol depleted" for every farm cell, for every scenario. The other two files define relationships between the farm id, NLDAS id, and local and major aquifer units, used for aquifer-level depletion analysis.

Agent based modeling↗

On Performance Prediction of Big Data Transfer in High-performance Networks

Big data generated by large-scale scientific and industrial applications need to be transferred between different geographical locations for remote storage, processing, and analysis. High-speed dedicated connections provisioned in High-performance Networks (HPNs) are increasingly utilized to carry out such big data transfer. HPN management highly relies on an important capability of performance (mainly throughput) prediction to reserve sufficient bandwidth and meanwhile avoid over-provisioning that may result in unnecessary resource waste. This capability is critical to improving the resource (mainly bandwidth) utilization of dedicated connections and meeting various user requests for data transfer. Conventional methods conduct performance prediction by fitting prior observed transfer history with predefined loss functions, without considering unobservable latent factors such as competing loads on end hosts. Such latent factors also have a significant impact on the application-level data transfer performance, which may result in an inaccurate prediction model. In this paper, we first investigate the impact of latent factors and propose a clustering-based method to eliminate their negative impact on performance prediction. We then develop a robust machine learning-based performance predictor by: i) incorporating the proposed latent factor elimination method into data preprocessing, and ii) adopting a customized domain guided loss function. Extensive experimental results show that our predictor achieves significantly higher prediction accuracy than several other state-of-the-art methods.

Liu, Wuji↗

Attention for Causal Relationship Discovery from Biological Neural Dynamics

This paper explores the potential of the transformer models for learning Granger causality in networks with complex nonlinear dynamics at every node, as in neurobiological and biophysical networks. Our study primarily focuses on a proof-of-concept investigation based on simulated neural dynamics, for which the ground-truth causality is known through the underlying connectivity matrix. For transformer models trained to forecast neuronal population dynamics, we show that the cross-attention module effectively captures the causal relationship among neurons, with an accuracy equal to or superior to that of the most popular Granger causality discovery method. While we acknowledge that real-world neurobiology data will bring further challenges, including dynamic connectivity and unobserved variability, this research offers an encouraging preliminary glimpse into the utility of the transformer model for causal representation learning in neuroscience.

Lu, Ziyu↗

Joint Factorization of QCD and QED Radiation in Lepton-Hadron Scattering

The factorization theorem plays an important role in the analysis of high energy quantum chromodynamic (QCD) processes, separating the nonperturbative hadronic interaction into the universal parton distribution functions (PDFs) and fragmentation functions (FFs) and the process-dependent interactions into short distance perturbative calculations, with any interference power suppressed. With a virtual photon exchange, lepton-hadron deep inelastic scattering (DIS) provides an electromagnetic hard probe for the partonic structure of colliding hadrons and has played an important role in the development of QCD factorization. However, the collision induced QED radiation can change the momentum of the exchanged but unobserved virtual photon, making the photon-hadron frame, where the factorization formalism for DIS and semi-inclusive DIS (SIDIS) was derived, ill defined. A new analogous factorization approach has been introduced to separate the leading power process-independent QED radiative contributions to the single photon exchange by introducing lepton distribution functions (LDFs) and lepton fragmentation functions (LFFs), while process-dependent effects are perturbatively calculated with large logarithms removed [J. High Energ. Phys. 2021, 157 (2021)]. These LDFs and LFFs are considered global, as they appear in many different interactions, such as e+e-, DIS and SIDIS, so data from experiments can be used to fit and describe these functions across a wide range of lepton scattering. In this work, I will apply this new hybrid factorization approach to lepton-hadron DIS and SIDIS. For DIS, I derive the NLO short distance perturbative contribution to the cross section and demonstrate the effects the QED radiation has on the cross section using this approach using the CTEQ parameterization for the QCD functions. As part of the SIDIS analysis, I study the cross-section in two different kinematic regions: (1) the scattered lepton and observed hadron are not near back-to-back, and (2) they are close to back-to-back, where collinear QCD factorization works for (1) and TMD QCD factorization for (2) while collinear QED factorization works for both. As part of this work, I show the effects on the SIDIS cross section using fixed order calculations for the unpolarized structure function by first showing the effect of the radiative corrections on the main kinematic variables, especially how the internal transverse momentum is significantly correlated to the external angular dependence, and then the unpolarized structure function (or cross section) with matching between the descriptions for low and high transverse momentum. This work will impact the calculations for predictions for data from COMPASS and various Jefferson Lab experiments.

Cammarota, Justin [Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington, K↗

Dynamic Matrix Completion Based State Estimation in Distribution Grids

The power distribution network is undergoing tremendous transformation due to an increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources and electric vehicles. These changes have resulted in greater uncertainty and dynamics in the distribution grid states. Therefore, the ability to track and monitor system states has become a critical need for accurate and timely control actions. In this paper, we propose two dynamic sparsity-based state estimation approaches for distribution systems: (1) locally weighted matrix completion (LW-MC) and (2) Bayesian matrix completion with Kalman filter prediction (BMC-KF). The performance of the proposed dynamic state estimation strategies is compared with the classic/static matrix completion (static-MC) approach using the IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems. Finally, results indicate that BMC-KF approach outperforms both LW-MC as well as static-MC even when 30% of the measurement data is available. Computational complexity associated with both approaches is quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Recursive Gaussian Process over graphs for Integrating Multi-timescale Measurements in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

The transition to a smarter grid is empowered by enhanced sensor deployments and smart metering infrastructure in the distribution system. Measurements from these sensors and meters can be used for many applications, including distribution system state estimation (DSSE). However, these measurements are typically sampled at different rates and could be intermittent due to losses during the aggregation process. These multi timescale measurements should be reconciled in real-time to perform accurate grid monitoring. This paper tackles this problem by formulating a recursive multi-task Gaussian process (RGP-G) approach that sequentially aggregates sensor measurements. Specifically, we formulate a recursive multi-task GP with and without network connectivity information to reconcile the multi time-scale measurements in distribution systems. Here, the proposed framework is capable of aggregating the multi-time scale measurements batch-wise or in real-time. Following the aggregation of the multi time-scale measurements, the spatial states of the consistent time-series are estimated using matrix completion based DSSE approach. Simulation results on IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems illustrate the efficiency of the proposed methods from the standpoint of both multi time-scale data aggregation and DSSE.

42 ENGINEERING↗