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NASA NTRS2004

Flows in the Solar Convection Zone

Flows within the solar convection zone are the primary drivers of the Sun's magnetic activity cycle. Differential rotation stretches out the magnetic field and converts poloidal fields into toroidal fields. Zones of strong radial shear are found at both the surface and at the base of the convection zone (the tachocline). The poleward meridional flow near the surface transports magnetic flux that is observed to reverse the magnetic poles near the time of cycle maxima. The deeper (and as yet unobserved), equatorward meridional flow should carry magnetic flux toward the equator where it reconnects with oppositely directed fields in the other hemisphere. The non-axisymmetric flows (granules, supergranules, and giant cells) also transport magnetic flux but in a more random, diffusive, manner. Supergranules and giant cells also play significant roles in driving the large-scale, axisymmetric flows themselves. The effect of solar rotation on supergranulation produces the shear layer near the surface and enhances the meridional flow. The effect of solar rotation on giant cells should produce the latitudinal differential rotation, the shear in the tachocline, and the meridional circulation. In this presentation I will describe the observed and theorized characteristics of the flows in the solar convection zone and discuss their connections to the solar activity cycle.

Hathaway, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
NASA NTRS2003

Air Cargo Transportation Route Choice Analysis

Using a unique feature of air cargo transshipment data in the Northeast Asian region, this paper identifies the critical factors that determine the transshipment route choice. Taking advantage of the variations in the transport characteristics in each origin-destination airports pair, the paper uses a discrete choice model to describe the transshipping route choice decision made by an agent (i.e., freight forwarder, consolidator, and large shipper). The analysis incorporates two major factors, monetary cost (such as line-haul cost and landing fee) and time cost (i.e., aircraft turnaround time, including loading and unloading time, custom clearance time, and expected scheduled delay), along with other controls. The estimation method considers the presence of unobserved attributes, and corrects for resulting endogeneity by use of appropriate instrumental variables. Estimation results find that transshipment volumes are more sensitive to time cost, and that the reduction in aircraft turnaround time by 1 hour would be worth the increase in airport charges by more than $1000. Simulation exercises measures the impacts of alternative policy scenarios for a Korean airport, which has recently declared their intention to be a future regional hub in the Northeast Asian region. The results suggest that reducing aircraft turnaround time at the airport be an effective strategy, rather than subsidizing to reduce airport charges.

Obashi, Hiroshi↗
NASA NTRS2005

Monitoring a Complex Physical System using a Hybrid Dynamic Bayes Net

The Reverse Water Gas Shift system (RWGS) is a complex physical system designed to produce oxygen from the carbon dioxide atmosphere on Mars. If sent to Mars, it would operate without human supervision, thus requiring a reliable automated system for monitoring and control. The RWGS presents many challenges typical of real-world systems, including: noisy and biased sensors, nonlinear behavior, effects that are manifested over different time granularities, and unobservability of many important quantities. In this paper we model the RWGS using a hybrid (discrete/continuous) Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN), where the state at each time slice contains 33 discrete and 184 continuous variables. We show how the system state can be tracked using probabilistic inference over the model. We discuss how to deal with the various challenges presented by the RWGS, providing a suite of techniques that are likely to be useful in a wide range of applications. In particular, we describe a general framework for dealing with nonlinear behavior using numerical integration techniques, extending the successful Unscented Filter. We also show how to use a fixed-point computation to deal with effects that develop at different time scales, specifically rapid changes occuring during slowly changing processes. We test our model using real data collected from the RWGS, demonstrating the feasibility of hybrid DBNs for monitoring complex real-world physical systems.

Lerner, Uri↗
NASA NTRS2005

Coronal Dynamics and Complete Flare Energy Budget for the M Dwarf AD Leo

This grant supported the observing and data analysis for FUSE Cycle 3 project C114 to observe the flare star AD Leo for 50 ksec coordinated with HST (Hubble Space Telescope) STIS ultraviolet spectroscopy and Chandra X-ray spectroscopy. Unfortunately, it was impossible to obtain the planned FUSE observations because AD Leo is a low declination target (delta approximately 20 degrees) and was rendered unobservable by restrictions in the sky coverage for FUSE observations. In April 2002 another M dwarf star, EV Lac, which is at significantly higher declination, was substituted for this project. EV Lac was observed by FUSE for a cumulative exposure of 35 ksec on 2002 July 1. The observation used the large LWRS aperture and collected data in time-tagged mode. The LWRS aperture is large enough that the target should remain within the aperture despite the normal level of pointing jitter and target drift experienced during FUSE observing. Our examination of the stellar signal showed that the target was well within the aperture throughout the observation. The data were split into night-time and day-time data so that the effects of airglow emission were recognizable. No obvious flaring, the primary science objective, was detected during the observation. The only stellar lines detected are 0 VI 1031.9, 1037.6 Angstrom, and the C III 1175 Angstrom, UV multiplet and the 977 Angstrom, resonance line. A comparison of the day-time and night-time spectra show that the 0 VI lines and the C III intersystem multiplet are unaffected by airglow features. The day-time data 977 Angstrom profile shows the presence of significant scattered solar C III photons, which should not be present in the night time spectrum. Emission fluxes for these lines were measured by direct summation of the emission lines. No continuum signal was detected in the region of these lines. The cleanest emission line profiles are for the O VI lines and we performed Gaussian fitting for these profiles. Both lines are clearly skewed with the emission peak shifted shortward of the line centroid and with emission extending further in the longward wing than for the shortward wing. A single Gaussian fits the 1032 Angstrom line profile reasonably and gives a line flux similar to that from direct integration with a line width (FWHM) of 0.16 Angstrom, (46 kilometers per second).

Brown, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2002

Distributed control topologies for deep space formation flying spacecraft

A formation of satellites flying in deep space can be specified in terms of the relative satellite positions and absolute satellite orientations. The redundancy in the relative position specification generates a family of control topologies with equivalent stability and reference tracking performance, one of which can be implemented without requiring communication between the spacecraft. A relative position design formulation is inherently unobservable, and a methodology for circumventing this problem is presented. Additional redundancy in the control actuation space can be exploited for feed-forward control of the formation centroid's location in space, or for minimization of total fuel consumption.

formation flying distributed spacecraft distribute↗
NASA NTRS1995

Quantitative Diagnosis of Continuous-Valued, Stead-State Systems

Quantitative diagnosis involves numerically estimating the values of unobservable parameters that best explain the observed parameter values. We consider quantitative diagnosis for continuous, lumped- parameter, steady-state physical systems because such models are easy to construct and the diagnosis problem is considerably simpler than that for corresponding dynamic models. To further tackle the difficulties of numerically inverting a simulation model to compute a diagnosis, we propose to decompose a physical system model in terms of feedback loops. This decomposition reduces the dimension of the problem and consequently decreases the diagnosis search space. We illustrate this approach on a model of thermal control system studied in earlier research.

Quantitative Diagnosis↗
NASA NTRS1994

Situated Plan Attribution

Plan recognition techniques frequently make rigid assumptions about the student's plans, and invest substantial effort to infer unobservable properties of the student.

recognition analysis↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using Latent Sleepiness to Evaluate an Important Effect of Promethazine

Astronauts often use promethazine (PMZ) to counteract space motion sickness; however PMZ may cause drowsiness, which might impair cognitive function. In a NASA ground study, subjects received PMZ and their cognitive performance was then monitored over time. Subjects also reported sleepiness using the Karolinska Sleepiness Score (KSS), which ranges from 1 - 9. A problem arises when using KSS to establish an association between true sleepiness and performance because KSS scores tend to overly concentrate on the values 3 (fairly awake) and 7 (moderately tired). Therefore, we defined a latent sleepiness measure as a continuous random variable describing a subject s actual, but unobserved true state of sleepiness through time. The latent sleepiness and observed KSS are associated through a conditional probability model, which when coupled with demographic factors, predicts performance.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Constraining Numerical Geodynamo Modeling with Surface Observations

Numerical dynamo solutions have traditionally been generated entirely by a set of self-consistent differential equations that govern the spatial-temporal variation of the magnetic field, velocity field and other fields related to dynamo processes. In particular, those solutions are obtained with parameters very different from those appropriate for the Earth s core. Geophysical application of the numerical results therefore depends on correct understanding of the differences (errors) between the model outputs and the true states (truth) in the outer core. Part of the truth can be observed at the surface in the form of poloidal magnetic field. To understand these differences, or errors, we generate new initial model state (analysis) by assimilating sequentially the model outputs with the surface geomagnetic observations using an optimal interpolation scheme. The time evolution of the core state is then controlled by our MoSST core dynamics model. The final outputs (forecasts) are then compared with the surface observations as a means to test the success of the assimilation. We use the surface geomagnetic data back to year 1900 for our studies, with 5-year forecast and 20-year analysis periods. We intend to use the result; to understand time variation of the errors with the assimilation sequences, and the impact of the assimilation on other unobservable quantities, such as the toroidal field and the fluid velocity in the core.

Kuang, Weijia↗
NASA NTRS2007

X-Raying the MOJAVE Sample of Compact Extragalactic Radio Jets

The MOJAVE sample is the first large radio-selected, VLBI-monitored AGN sample for which complete X-ray spectral information is being gathered. We report on the status of Swift survey observations which complement the available archival X-ray data at 0.3-10 keV and in the UV with its XRT and UVOT instruments. Many of these 133 radio-brightest AGN in the northern sky are now being observed for the first time at these energies. These and complementary other multiwavelength observations provide a large statistical sample of radio-selected AGN whose spectral energy distributions we measured from radio to gamma-ray wavelengths, available at the beginning of GLAST operations in 2008. Here, we report the X-ray spectral characteristics of 36 of these previously unobserved MOJAVE sources. In addition, the number of MOJAVE sources detected by the BAT instrument in the hard X-ray band is growing: we report the detection of five new blazars with BAT.

Kadler, M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Motion detection, novelty filtering, and target tracking using an interferometric technique with GaAs phase conjugate mirror

A method and apparatus for detecting and tracking moving objects in a noise environment cluttered with fast- and slow-moving objects and other time-varying background. A pair of phase conjugate light beams carrying the same spatial information commonly cancel each other out through an image subtraction process in a phase conjugate interferometer, wherein gratings are formed in a fast photorefractive phase conjugate mirror material. In the steady state, there is no output. When the optical path of one of the two phase conjugate beams is suddenly changed, the return beam loses its phase conjugate nature and the interferometer is out of balance, resulting in an observable output. The observable output lasts until the phase conjugate nature of the beam has recovered. The observable time of the output signal is roughly equal to the formation time of the grating. If the optical path changing time is slower than the formation time, the change of optical path becomes unobservable, because the index grating can follow the change. Thus, objects traveling at speeds which result in a path changing time which is slower than the formation time are not observable and do not clutter the output image view.

Cheng, Li-Jen↗
NASA NTRS2008

System Estimates Radius of Curvature of a Segmented Mirror

A system that estimates the global radius of curvature (GRoC) of a segmented telescope mirror has been developed for use as one of the subsystems of a larger system that exerts precise control over the displacements of the mirror segments. This GRoC-estimating system, when integrated into the overall control system along with a mirror-segment- actuation subsystem and edge sensors (sensors that measure displacements at selected points on the edges of the segments), makes it possible to control the GROC mirror-deformation mode, to which mode contemporary edge sensors are insufficiently sensitive. This system thus makes it possible to control the GRoC of the mirror with sufficient precision to obtain the best possible image quality and/or to impose a required wavefront correction on incoming or outgoing light. In its mathematical aspect, the system utilizes all the information available from the edge-sensor subsystem in a unique manner that yields estimates of all the states of the segmented mirror. The system does this by exploiting a special set of mirror boundary conditions and mirror influence functions in such a way as to sense displacements in degrees of freedom that would otherwise be unobservable by means of an edge-sensor subsystem, all without need to augment the edge-sensor system with additional metrological hardware. Moreover, the accuracy of the estimates increases with the number of mirror segments.

Rakoczy, John↗
NASA NTRS2008

Microwave Radiometers from 0.6 to 22 GHz for Juno, a Polar Orbiter around Jupiter

A compact radiometer instrument is under development at JPL for Juno, the next NASA New Frontiers mission, scheduled to launch in 2011. This instrument is called the MWR (MicroWave Radiometer), and its purpose is to measure the thermal emission from Jupiter's atmosphere at selected frequencies from 0.6 to 22 GHz. The objective is to measure the distributions and abundances of water and ammonia in Jupiter's atmosphere, with the goal of understanding the previously unobserved dynamics of the subcloud atmosphere, and to discriminate among models for planetary formation in our solar system. The MWR instrument is currently being developed to address these science questions for the Juno mission. As part of a deep space mission aboard a solar-powered spacecraft, MWR is designed to be compact, lightweight, and low power. The entire MWR instrument consists of six individual radiometer channels with approximately 4% bandwidth at 0.6, 1.25,2.6,5.2, 10,22 GHz operating in direct detection mode. Each radiometer channel has up to 80 dB of gain with a noise figure of several dB. The highest frequency channel uses a corrugated feedhorn and waveguide transmission lines, whereas all other channels use highly phase stable coaxial cables and either patch array or waveguide slot array antennas. Slot waveguide array antennas were chosen for the low loss at the next three highest frequencies and patch array antennas were implemented due to the mass constraint at the two lowest frequencies. The six radiometer channels receive their voltage supplies and control lines from an electronics unit that also provides the instrument communication interface to the Juno spacecraft. For calibration purposes each receiver has integrated noise diodes, a Dicke switch, and temperature sensors near each component that contributes to the noise figure. In addition, multiple sensors will be placed along the RF transmission lines and the antennas in order to measure temperature gradients. All antennas and RF transmission lines must withstand low temperatures and the harsh radiation environment surrounding Jupiter; the receivers and control electronics are protected by a radiation-shielding enclosure on the Juno spacecraft that also provides for a benign and stable operating temperature environment. This paper will focus on the concept of the MWR instrument and will present results of one breadboard receiver channel.

receiver↗
NASA NTRS2009

Progress on the James Webb Space Telescope

I will describe the scientific program anticipated for the James Webb Space Telescope and the progress in its construction. When the JWST was conceived in 1995 it was expected to make its greatest contributions in the study of the first objects to form after the Big Bang, in the evolution of galaxies, and in the formation and evolution of stars and planetary systems. Since then, the age-distance-redshift relation has become clear with the precise measurement of the Hubble constant, the discovery of the accelerating universe, and the remarkable agreement of CMBR calculations with direct measurements of the large-scale structure. So what is left and what has changed? Galaxy formation and growth is still mysterious, star formation is still hidden, the dark matter and dark energy are still unobservable, and the tools at hand may or may not help enough. But the JWST, as a general-purpose observatory, will be available for imaginative use, and is just what Simon White's polemic seems to request. As an example, the JWST should be quite capable of observing transiting exoplanets with remarkable precision, even though there was no requirement to do so, and its coronagraphs will be very good even without a monolithic primary mirror. The JWST mission has now been officially approved by NASA and is in the Federal budget. It is planned for launch in 2014. Flight instruments will begin to arrive at Goddard in mid-2010, and the first flight mirror segments have already passed their first cryogenic tests. The flight detectors have been selected and have remarkable performance; for example, the near IR detectors have dark currents of the order of 10 electrons per pixel per hour.

Mather, John C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Microwave Radiometers from 0.6 to 22 GHz for Juno, a Polar Orbiter around Jupiter

A compact instrument called the MWR (microwave radiometer) is under development at JPL for Juno, the next NASA new frontiers mission, scheduled to launch in 2011. It's purpose is to measure the thermal emission from Jupiter's atmosphere at six selected frequencies from 0.6 to 22 GHz, operating in direct detection mode, in order to quantify the distributions and abundances of water and ammonia in Jupiter's atmosphere. The goal is to understand the previously unobserved dynamics of the sub-cloud atmosphere, and to discriminate among models for planetary formation in our solar system. as part of a deep space mission aboard a solar-powered spacecraft, MWR is designed to be compact, lightweight, and low power. The receivers and control electronics are protected by a radiation-shielding enclosure on the Juno spacecraft that also provides for a benign and stable operating temperature environment. All antennas and RF transmission lines outside the vault must withstand low temperatures and the harsh radiation environment surrounding Jupiter. This paper describes the concept of the MWR instrument and presents results of one breadboard receiver channel.

Jupiter↗
NASA NTRS2009

Synthesis and Assimilation Systems - Essential Adjuncts to the Observing System

Assimilation systems synthesize diverse in-situ and satellite data streams into full four-dimensional state estimates by combining the strengths of each data set and also of the model. The resulting analysis provides an integrated view of the information in the various observations as well as derived estimates of unobserved quantities. Assimilation systems are particularly important for the ocean where subsurface observations, even today, are sparse and intermittent compared with the scales needed to represent ocean variability and where satellites only sense the surface. Increasingly, models and assimilation systems are being used to provide information about the current observing system and to help in the design plans for new observations. Whether it is as a user of observations or a contributor to evaluation of the observing system, ocean synthesis and assimilation systems are now an integral part of the global ocean observing and information system. Major advances have been made over the last decade under the auspices of WCRP's Climate Variability and Predictability Project (CLIVAR) and the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE). In addition to advances in the assimilation systems, there have been major developments in the observing system, with satellite altimetry, the tropical moored buoy arrays in the Pacific and Atlantic, and more recently Argo. These developments have led to significant advances in our understanding and prediction of ocean variations at both mesoscale and climate scales. Many challenges remain. Some of these challenges lie in the observations themselves, some in the assimilation systems that, even in the more recent era of unprecedented observations from satellite altimetry and Argo, provide different views of climate variations. Yet there are many examples of successful applications from ocean assimilation products. Use of these systems for assessing the observing system helps identify the strengths of each observation type, and indicates that none of the current observations is redundant. Indeed, the indication is that the ocean remains under-sampled and that further improvements in the observing system are needed for both climate monitoring and prediction. Future developments will be increasingly towards consistent analyses across components of the Earth system using, e.g., coupled atmosphere-ocean models.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Irradiation of FeS: Implications for the Lifecycle of Sulfur in the Interstellar Medium and Presolar FeS Grains

Fe(Ni) sulfides are ubiquitous in chondritic meteorites and cometary samples where they are the dominant host of sulfur. Despite their abundance in these early solar system materials, their presence in interstellar and circumstellar environments is poorly understood. Fe-sulfides have been reported from astronomical observations of pre- and post-main sequence stars [1, 2] and occur as inclusions in bonafide circumstellar silicate grains [3, 4]. In cold, dense molecular cloud (MC) environments, sulfur is highly depleted from the gas phase [e.g. 5], yet observations of sulfur-bearing molecules in dense cores find a total abundance that is only a small fraction of the sulfur seen in diffuse regions [6], therefore the bulk of the depletion must reside in an abundant unobserved phase. In stark contrast, sulfur is essentially undepleted from the gas phase in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) [7-9], indicating that little sulfur is incorporated into solid grains in this environment. This is a rather puzzling observation unless Fe-sulfides are not produced in significant quantities in stellar outflows, or their lifetime in the ISM is very short due to rapid destruction. The main destruction mechanism is sputtering due to supernova shocks in the warm, diffuse ISM [10]. This process involves the reduction of Fe-sulfide with the production of Fe metal as a by-product and returning S to the gas phase. In order to test this hypothesis, we irradiated FeS and analyzed the resulting material using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM).

Keller, Lindsay P.↗