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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The Efficiency of Water Vapor on Top‐of‐Atmosphere Radiation

Earth's climate sensitivity is greatly affected by the compensation between temperature feedback and water vapor (WV) feedback. Using abrupt 4xCO 2 experiments, we show that the global-mean WV feedback is nearly a linear function of the temperature feedback, the slope of which is explained by the longwave radiative efficiency of WV (ϵ). Although ϵ remains constant across models in the global mean, it exhibits substantial spatial variations and is particularly weak in Antarctica, where near-surface inversions decouple the surface from the free troposphere. We introduce a surface–free troposphere temperature difference (SFTD) metric, showing that positive SFTD (e.g., high lifting condensation level) amplifies ϵ, while negative SFTD (e.g., strong surface inversion) suppresses it. These findings provide a clear explanation of how local climate conditions modulate the radiative compensation between temperature and WV feedbacks.

climate feedback↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deployment Potential of Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in California

As states within the United States respond to future grid development goals, there is a growing demand for reliable and resilient nighttime generation that can be addressed by low-cost, long-duration energy storage solutions. This report studies the potential of including concentrating solar power (CSP) in the technology mix to support California’s goals as defined in Senate Bill 100. A joint agency report study that determined potential pathways to achieve the renewable portfolio standard set by the bill did not include CSP, and our work provides information that could be used as a follow-up. This study uses a capacity expansion model configured to have nodal spatial fidelity in California and balancing-area fidelity in the Western Interconnection outside of California. The authors discovered that by applying current technology cost projections CSP fulfills nearly 15% of the annual load while representing just 6% of total installed capacity in 2045, replacing approximately 30 GWe of wind, solar PV, and standalone batteries compared to a scenario without CSP included. The deployment of CSP in the results is sensitive to the technology’s cost, which highlights the importance of meeting cost targets in 2030 and beyond to enable the technology’s potential contribution to California’s carbon reduction goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The sources and diurnal variations of submicron aerosols in a coastal–rural environment near Houston, US

Aerosol properties were characterized at a rural site southwest of Houston from May to September 2022 during the intensive operation periods (IOPs) of the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER). Backward trajectory analysis reveals three major air mass types: marine air mass from the Gulf, urban air mass influenced by urban emissions, and regional air mass. Marine aerosols typically show a bimodal size distribution and have the lowest particle number and mass concentrations of PM 1 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 1 µm), while aerosols from air masses strongly influenced by urban emissions exhibit the highest concentrations. Organic aerosol (OA) accounts for more than 50 % of PM 1 for urban and regional air masses, whereas sulfate is comparable to OA in marine air masses. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis of aerosol mass spectra identifies 6 OA factors: hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), OA from the oxidation of monoterpenes (MT-SOA), OA from the reactive uptake of isoprene epoxydiols by acidic sulfate particles (isoprene-SOA), oxygenated OA arising from shipping emissions (shipping-OOA), and two oxygenated OA factors with high O : C ratios (OOA1 and OOA2). OOA2 has the highest O : C ratio and exhibits elevated mass concentration in the afternoon. Similar diurnal variation of highly oxidized OA factors was commonly observed in the Houston area during previous studies and attributed to the SOA formation by photochemistry and mixing from aloft. Here, using air mass backward trajectories and a 1-D box model, we show the diurnal trend of OOA2 mass concentration is instead driven by changes in air mass arriving at the rural site. The air mass changes are likely caused by the shift between land breezes and sea/bay breezes. Within the same air mass type (e.g., either urban or marine air mass), OOA2 mass concentration is largely independent of wind direction and shows essentially no diurnal variation, suggesting OOA2 is related to aged OA with minimal influence by local emissions. This study helps identify the major sources of OA in the Houston region and highlights the impacts of both atmospheric chemistry and meteorology on aerosol properties in the coastal–rural environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗
DOE OSTI2020

Heat Integration Optimization and Dynamic Modeling Investigation for Advancing the Coal-Direct Chemical Looping Process

The purpose of the project is to address the optimization and startup operation of a modular coal direct chemical looping (CDCL) combustion system integrated with a steam cycle for power generation to reduce the risks involved in further scale-up of the technology. The modular reactor design of the CDCL process provides flexibility in the fabrication of the reactor and in its operating capacity (i.e. turndown ratio) at the cost of a more complex heat exchange network (HEN) design and integration. To address the technology gaps and advance the efficiency and economic feasibility of the CDCL technology, the project will perform a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the integration of a modular CDCL reactor system and a steam cycle system under both static and transient conditions via HEN process performance simulations and system dynamic modeling, respectively. The scope of work consists of 1) Experimental and computational studies of the CDCL combustor reactor 2) Comprehensive static (i.e. steady-state) system HEN design analysis in CDCL 550 MWe commercial unit for power generation and 3) Dynamic modeling of site specific design of 10MWe CDCL large pilot plant. The project team has successfully developed and validated a kinetic model for the oxidation of oxygen carriers in the combustor using the unreacted shrinking core model (UCSM). The model is capable of capturing the oxidation kinetics of fully or partially reduced oxygen carrier particles. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to simulate the hydrodynamics, heat transfer, and chemical reaction occurring in the CDCL combustor. The model is developed in MFIX and ANSYS Fluent. Key aspects of CDCL combustor operation, including heat transfer, oxygen carrier oxidation, and the transport of oxygen carrier particles, are simulated using this CFD model. The HEN for a commercial scale 550 MWe CDCL power plant is simulated and optimized using ASPEN Plus. Practical design considerations are incorporated based on industrial experiences. The performance and cost for the commercial CDCL plant is updated based on these analyses. A dynamic model for the 10 MWe CDCL pilot plant is developed in ProTRAX simulation software. The model is based on the pilot plant design developed in project DE-FE0027654 “10 MWe CDCL Large Pilot Plang – Pre-FEED Study” and the steam cycle data obtained from Dover Light & Power plant. The transient behaviors during pilot plant load variation are simulated using the dynamic model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Extreme Precipitation in the United States in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model: Investigating the Importance of Representing Convective Intensity versus Dynamic Structure (Final Report)

Weather events that produce extreme precipitation are associated with severe flooding and winds that result in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in damages annually in the United States (U.S.). This project aims to improve understanding of the small- and large-scale processes that govern these events and improve our ability to project changes in these extreme events under the influences of natural variability and human activities. We focus on two promising directions in the development of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to investigate the tradeoffs between resolving the convective-scale processes that control the intensity versus the intermediate-scale processes that control the dynamic structure of the most prominent extreme precipitation events that impact the U.S. throughout the year (i.e., mesoscale convective systems, tropical cyclones, and extratropical cyclone).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Characteristics of Multistory Buildings

In order to evaluate unit stresses or to estimate possible damage in multistory buildings from earthquake or ground motion from underground nuclear explosion it is essential to determine how much of the dynamic response at any level is due to various types of freedom. The effects of shear deformation between floors, joint rotation, over-all flexure, and ground compliance are considered. Joint rotation and over-all flexure are evaluated over a wide range of building characteristics with simply determined indices. Further, a period synthesis concept and a pseudo-stiffness procedure are proposed to enable the determination of periods, mode shapes and stiffnesses with consideration of joint rotation, over-all flexure and ground compliance while performing simple labor-saving analyses for assumed rigid-floor shear buildings. The first three modes of vibration are considered in elastic free vibration. The buildings and models are symmetric in plan without torsional coupling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2018

Component-Level Selection and Qualification for the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Laser Altimeter Transmitter

Flight quality solid-state lasers require a unique and extensive set of testing and qualification processes, both at the system and component levels to insure the laser's promised performance. As important as the overall laser transmitter design is, the quality and performance of individual subassemblies, optics, and electro-optics dictate the final laser unit's quality. The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) laser transmitters employ all the usual components typical for a diode-pumped, solid-state laser, yet must each go through their own individual process of specification, modeling, performance demonstration, inspection, and destructive testing. These qualification processes and results for the laser crystals, laser diode arrays, electro-optics, and optics, will be reviewed as well as the relevant critical issues encountered, prior to their installation in the GEDI flight laser units.

Frese, Erich A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics

The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.

agent-based modeling↗
NASA NTRS2017

Dynamic Control System Performance during Commissioning of the Space Technology 7-Disturbance Reduction System Experiment of LISA Pathfinder

The Space Technology-7 Disturbance Reduction System (DRS) launched aboard the European Space Agency's LISA Pathfinder spacecraft on December 3, 2015, after more than a decade in development. DRS consists of three primary components: an Integrated Avionics Unit (IAU), Colloidal MicroNewton Thrusters, and Dynamic Control System (DCS) algorithms implemented on the IAU. During the portions of the mission in which the DRS was under control, the DCS was responsible for controlling the spacecraft and the free-floating test masses that were part of the LISA Test Package. The commissioning period was originally divided into two periods: before propulsion separation and after propulsion separation. A recommissioning period was added after an anomaly occurred in the thruster system. The paper will describe the activities used to commission DRS, present results from the commissioning of the DCS and the recommissioning activities per-formed after the thruster anomaly.

Hsu, Oscar↗
NASA NTRS2017

Dynamic Control System Performance during Commissioning of the Space Technology 7-Disturbance Reduction System Experiment of LISA Pathfinder

The Space Technology-7 Disturbance Reduction System (DRS) launched aboard the European Space Agencys LISA Pathfinder spacecraft on December 3, 2015, after more than a decade in development. DRS consists of three prima-ry components: an Integrated Avionics Unit (IAU), Colloidal MicroNewton Thrusters, and Dynamic Control System (DCS) algorithms implemented on the IAU. During the portions of the mission in which the DRS was under control, the DCS was responsible for controlling the spacecraft and the free-floating test masses that were part of the LISA Test Package. The commissioning period was originally divided into two periods: before propulsion separation and after pro-pulsion separation. A recommissioning period was added after an anomaly oc-curred in the thruster system. The paper will describe the activities used to com-mission DRS, present results from the commissioning of the DCS and the re-commissioning activities performed after the thruster anomaly.

Hsu, Oscar↗
NASA NTRS2006

Microthruster Propulsion for the Space Technology 7 (ST7) Technology Demonstration Mission

For future applications to precision formation flying missions, NASA's New Millennium Program is scheduled to test colloid micro-Newton thrusters (CMNTs) on the ST7 technology demonstration mission. These CMNTs are part of a disturbance reduction system (DRS) on the ESA SMART-2 Spacecraft or LISA Pathfinder. The goal of the ST7 DRS is to demonstrate technologies necessary to meet the nanometer precision positioning control requirements of the LISA mission. In order to achieve these goals, the CMNTs are required to demonstrate a thrust resolution of less than 0.1 micro-N and a thrust noise of less than 0.1 micro-N/[square root]Hz for thrust levels between 5 and 30 micro-N. Developed by Busek Co. with support from JPL in testing an design, the CMNT has been developed over the last four years into a flight-ready microthrust system. The development, validation testing, and flight unit production of the CMNTs are described. Development tests and analysis include preliminary wear tests, propellant loading process verification, flow testing, and performance verification. Validation and flight unit verification includes thermal and structural analysis, life testing, thermal and dynamic load testing, and performance verification. Final delivery of the units is planned in 2007 with and planned launch and flight demonstration 2009.

microthruster↗
DOE OSTI2024

Speckle contrast from the split-and-delay unit with seeded X-ray pulses of the MID instrument at European XFEL

We report on the coherence properties and characteristics of the split- and-delay unit at the Materials Imaging and Dynamics instrument of the European XFEL under seeded-beam conditions. Our investigation focuses on the speckle contrast extracted from the scattering patterns from static scatterers and pulse splitting characteristics. Seeded-beam operation enabled a high throughput of the split-and-delay unit. We highlight the invaluable potential of the split-and-delay unit for experimental investigations for enhancing our understanding of ultrafast phenomena in molecular liquids, such as water and aqueous solutions.

Fuoss, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2022

Koopman-based Differentiable Predictive Control for the Dynamics-Aware Economic Dispatch Problem

The dynamics-aware economic dispatch (DED) problem embeds low-level generator dynamics and operational constraints to enable near real-time scheduling of generation units in a power network. DED produces a more dynamic supervisory control policy than traditional economic dispatch (T-ED) that reduces overall generation costs. However, the incorporation of differential equations that govern the system dynamics makes DED an optimization problem that is computationally prohibitive to solve. In this work, we present a new data-driven approach based on differentiable programming to efficiently obtain offline parametric solutions to the underlying DED problem. In particular, we employ the recently proposed differentiable predictive control (DPC) for offline learning of explicit neural control policies based on identified Koopman operator (KO) model of the system dynamics. We demonstrate the high solution quality and five orders of magnitude computational-time savings of the DPC method over the original optimization-based DED approach on a 9-bus test power grid network.

King, Ethan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solving the Dynamics-Aware Economic Dispatch Problem with the Koopman Operator

The dynamics-aware economic dispatch (DED) problem embeds low-level generator dynamics and operational constraints to enable near real-time scheduling of generation units in a power network. DED produces a more dynamic supervisory control policy than traditional economic dispatch (T-ED) that reduces overall generation costs. However, in contrast to T-ED, DED is a nonlinear, non-convex optimization problem that is computationally prohibitive to solve. We introduce a machine learning-based operator-theoretic approach for solving the DED problem efficiently. Specifically, we develop a novel discrete-time Koopman Operator (KO) formulation that embeds domain information into the structure of the KO to learn high-fidelity approximations of the generator dynamics. Using the KO approximation, the DED problem can be reformulated as a computationally tractable linear program (abbreviated DED-KO). We demonstrate the high solution quality and computational-time savings of the DED-KO model over the original DED formulation on a 9-bus test system.

King, Ethan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Error Modeling for Non-Linear State Estimation With Unsynchronized SCADA and µPMU Measurements

Distribution systems of the future smart grid require enhancements to the reliability of distribution system state estimation (DSSE) in the face of low measurement redundancy, unsynchronized measurements, and dynamic load profiles. Micro phasor measurement units (µPMUs) facilitate co-synchronized measurements with high granularity, albeit at an often prohibitively expensive installation cost. Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements can supplement µPMU data, although they are received at a slower sampling rate. Further complicating matters is the uncertainty associated with load dynamics and unsynchronized measurements–not only are the SCADA and µPMU measurements not synchronized with each other, but the SCADA measurements themselves are received at different time intervals with respect to one another. This paper proposes a non-linear state estimation framework which models dynamic load uncertainty error by updating the variances of the unsynchronized measurements, leading to a time-varying system of weights in the weighted least squares state estimator. Case studies are performed on the 33-Bus Distribution System in MATPOWER, using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic processes to simulate dynamic load conditions.

Cooper, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗