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At least 199 records · Page 11

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NASA NTRS2002

Estimate of Top-of-Atmosphere Albedo for a Molecular Atmosphere over Ocean using Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Measurements

The shortwave broadband albedo at the top of a molecular atmosphere over ocean between 40deg N and 40deg S is estimated using radiance measurements from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and the Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The albedo monotonically increases from 0.059 at a solar zenith angle of 10deg to 0.107 at a solar zenith angle of 60deg. The estimated uncertainty in the albedo is 3.5 x 10(exp -3) caused by the uncertainty in CERES-derived irradiances, uncertainty in VIRS-derived aerosol optical thicknesses, variations in ozone and water vapor, and variations in surface wind speed. The estimated uncertainty is similar in magnitude to the standard deviation of 0.003 that is derived from 72 areas divided by 20deg latitude by 20deg longitude grid boxes. The empirically estimated albedo is compared with the modeled albedo using a radiative transfer model combined with an ocean surface bidirectional reflectivity model. The modeled albedo with standard tropical atmosphere is 0.061 and 0.111 at the solar zenith angles of 10deg and 60deg, respectively. This empirically estimated albedo can be used to estimate the direct radiative effect of aerosols at the top of the atmosphere over oceans.

Kato, S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

CheKiPEUQ Intro 1: Bayesian Parameter Estimation Considering Uncertainty or Error from both Experiments and Theory**

A common goal is extraction of physico-chemical parameter values such as pre-exponentials and activation energies from experiment. Ever increasing knowledge from experiments and computations is enabling semi-quantitative prior predictions of such values. When prior knowledge of physically realistic ranges is available, a method named Bayesian parameter estimation (BPE) enables more physically realistic parameter estimation relative to unsophisticated fitting by seeking the most probable value when considering together the uncertainties from prior knowledge, experimental data, and approximations in the model. An impediment to widespread use of BPE is a lack of understanding, training, and user-friendly software. Along with this invited publication, a general software package for BPE is being released that is user-friendly and that does not require understanding of the math behind the methodology. Overall, two previously unpublished catalysis science examples are provided along with considerations and guidelines for successful application of BPE. Following this work, BPE can become more widespread to enable extraction of physically meaningful parameter values.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Emulation of Spatial Deposition from a Multi-Physics Ensemble of Weather and Atmospheric Transport Models

In the event of an accidental or intentional hazardous material release in the atmosphere, researchers often run physics-based atmospheric transport and dispersion models to predict the extent and variation of the contaminant spread. These predictions are imperfect due to propagated uncertainty from atmospheric model physics (or parameterizations) and weather data initial conditions. Ensembles of simulations can be used to estimate uncertainty, but running large ensembles is often very time consuming and resource intensive, even using large supercomputers. In this paper, we present a machine-learning-based method which can be used to quickly emulate spatial deposition patterns from a multi-physics ensemble of dispersion simulations. We use a hybrid linear and logistic regression method that can predict deposition in more than 100,000 grid cells with as few as fifty training examples. Logistic regression provides probabilistic predictions of the presence or absence of hazardous materials, while linear regression predicts the quantity of hazardous materials. The coefficients of the linear regressions also open avenues of exploration regarding interpretability—the presented model can be used to find which physics schemes are most important over different spatial areas. A single regression prediction is on the order of 10,000 times faster than running a weather and dispersion simulation. However, considering the number of weather and dispersion simulations needed to train the regressions, the speed-up achieved when considering the whole ensemble is about 24 times. Ultimately, this work will allow atmospheric researchers to produce potential contamination scenarios with uncertainty estimates faster than previously possible, aiding public servants and first responders.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1996

Determination of Uncertainties for the New SSME Model

This report discusses the uncertainty analysis performed in support of a new test analysis and performance prediction model for the Space Shuttle Main Engine. The new model utilizes uncertainty estimates for experimental data and for the analytical model to obtain the most plausible operating condition for the engine system. This report discusses the development of the data sets and uncertainty estimates to be used in the development of the new model. It also presents the application of uncertainty analysis to analytical models and the uncertainty analysis for the conservation of mass and energy balance relations is presented. A new methodology for the assessment of the uncertainty associated with linear regressions is presented.

Coleman, Hugh W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

REV-INR: Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation for Uncertainty-Aware Volume Visualization

Applications of Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have emerged as a promising deep learning approach for compactly representing large volumetric datasets. These models can act as surrogates for volume data, enabling efficient storage and on-demand reconstruction via model predictions. However, conventional deterministic INRs only provide value predictions without insights into the model’s prediction uncertainty or the impact of inherent noisiness in the data. This limitation can lead to unreliable data interpretation and visualization due to prediction inaccuracies in the reconstructed volume. Identifying erroneous results extracted from model-predicted data may be infeasible, as raw data may be unavailable due to its large size. To address this challenge, we introduce REV-INR, Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation, which learns to predict data values accurately along with the associated coordinate-level data uncertainty and model uncertainty using only a single forward pass of the trained REV-INR during inference. By comprehensively comparing and contrasting REV-INR with existing well-established deep uncertainty estimation methods, we show that REV-INR achieves the best volume reconstruction quality with robust data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainty estimates using the fastest inference time. Consequently, we demonstrate that REV-INR facilitates assessment of the reliability and trustworthiness of the extracted isosurfaces and volume visualization results, enabling analyses to be solely driven by model-predicted data.

Saklani, Shanu [Indian Institute of Technology, Ka↗

NASA NTRS2002

Error Estimation and Uncertainty Propagation in Computational Fluid Mechanics

Numerical simulation has now become an integral part of engineering design process. Critical design decisions are routinely made based on the simulation results and conclusions. Verification and validation of the reliability of the numerical simulation is therefore vitally important in the engineering design processes. We propose to develop theories and methodologies that can automatically provide quantitative information about the reliability of the numerical simulation by estimating numerical approximation error, computational model induced errors and the uncertainties contained in the mathematical models so that the reliability of the numerical simulation can be verified and validated. We also propose to develop and implement methodologies and techniques that can control the error and uncertainty during the numerical simulation so that the reliability of the numerical simulation can be improved.

Zhu, J. Z.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1993

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗

NASA NTRS1996

Effect of Correlated Precision Errors on Uncertainty of a Subsonic Venturi Calibration

An uncertainty analysis performed in conjunction with the calibration of a subsonic venturi for use in a turbine test facility produced some unanticipated results that may have a significant impact in a variety of test situations. Precision uncertainty estimates using the preferred propagation techniques in the applicable American National Standards Institute/American Society of Mechanical Engineers standards were an order of magnitude larger than precision uncertainty estimates calculated directly from a sample of results (discharge coefficient) obtained at the same experimental set point. The differences were attributable to the effect of correlated precision errors, which previously have been considered negligible. An analysis explaining this phenomenon is presented. The article is not meant to document the venturi calibration, but rather to give a real example of results where correlated precision terms are important. The significance of the correlated precision terms could apply to many test situations.

Hudson, S. T.↗

NASA NTRS2020

SNPP VIIRS RSB on-orbit radiometric calibration algorithms Version 2.0 and the performances. Part II: The performances

In Part I (Lei et. al, submitted to J. of Appl. Rem. Sens.),we gave detailed reviews of the algorithms Version 2.0 used for the on-orbit radiometric calibration of the reflective solar bands (RSBs) of the first Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite instrument. These algorithms improve the accuracy of the measured on-orbit change factor of the solar diffuser bidirectional reflectance distribution function, the H-factor, and reveal that the H-factor is angle dependent. With the help of lunar observations and the improved H-factor, the algorithms give more accurate values for the RSB detector on-orbit F-factor changes (F-factor is a correction factor to the initially retrieved scene spectral radiance). In this paper we review the RSB radiometric calibration performances. We show the H-factor temporal trend, the estimated uncertainty of the retrieved H-factor, and the F-factor temporal trend. Additionally we show the detector signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the estimated uncertainty of the top-of-the-atmosphere solar spectral reflectance, the reflectance temporal trend for the Libya 4 desert, and the differences in the reflectances among the SNPP and the NOAA-20 VIIRS, and the Aqua MODIS. Our results show that although the SNRs trend downwards, they exceed the requirements by large margins. The reflectances from the Libya 4 desert show that the SNPP VIIRS’ reflectance is higher than those of the Aqua MODIS and the NOAA-20 VIIRS.

on-orbit calibration↗

NASA NTRS2020

SNPP VIIRS RSB on-orbit radiometric calibration algorithms Version 2.0 and the performances. Part II: The performances

Ning Lei↗

NASA NTRS1997

Estimating the Uncertainty in Passive-Microwave Rain-Retrievals

Current passive-microwave rain-retrieval methods are largely based on databases built off-line using cloud models. The vertical distribution of hydrometeors within the cloud has a large impact on upwelling brightness temperatures ([31,[5]). Thus, a forward radiative transfer model can predict off-line the radiance associated with different rain scenarios. To estimate the rain from measured brightness temperatures, one simply looks for the rain scenario whose associated radiances are closest to the measurements. To understand the uncertainties in this process, we first study the dependence of the simulated brightness temperatures on different hydrometeor size distribution (DSD) models. We then analyze the marginal and joint distributions of the radiances observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and of those in the databases used in the TRMM rain retrievals. We finally calculate the covariances of the rain profiles and brightness temperatures in the TRMM passive-microwave database and derive a simple parametric model for the conditional uncertainty, given measured radiances. These results are used to characterize the uncertainty inherent in the passive-microwave retrieval.

Coppens, Dorothee↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of Long-Term Calibrations of the AVHRR Visible Radiances

Two systematic calibrations have been compiled for the visible radiances measured by the series of AVHRR instruments flown on the NOAA operational polar weather satellites: one by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), anchored on NASA ER-2 underflights in the 1980s and early 1990s and covering the period 1981-2009, and one by the PATMOS-x project, anchored on comparisons to the MODIS instruments on the Aqua and Terra satellites in the 2000s and covering the period 1979-2010 (this result also includes calibration for the near-IR channels). Both methods have had to extend their anchor calibrations over a long series of instruments using different vicarious approaches, so a comparison provides an opportunity to evaluate how well this extension works by cross-checking the results at the anchor points. The basic result of this comparison is that for the ''afternoon'' series of AVHRRs, the calibrations agree to within their mutual uncertainties. However, this retrospective evaluation also shows that the representation of the time variations can be simplified. The ISCCP procedure had much more difficulty extending the calibration to the ''morning'' series of AVHRRs with the calibrations for NOAA-15 and NOAA-17 exceeding the estimated uncertainties. Given the general agreement, a new calibration for all AVHRR visible radiances (except TIROS-N, NOAA-6, NOAA-19, and MetOp-A) is proposed that is based on the average of the best linear fits to the two time records. The estimated uncertainty of these calibrations is 63% absolute (scaled radiance units).

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer↗

DOE OSTI2021

PRISM3D: a 3-D reference seismic model for Iberia and adjacent areas

SUMMARY We present PRISM3D, a 3-D reference seismic model of P- and S-wave velocities for Iberia and adjacent areas. PRISM3D results from the combination of the most up-to-date earth models available for the region. It extends horizontally from 15°W to 5°E in longitude, 34°N to 46°N in latitude and vertically from 3.5 km above to 200 km below sea level, and is modelled on a regular grid with 10 and 0.5 km of grid node spacing in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. It was designed using models inferred from local and teleseismic body-wave tomography, earthquake and ambient noise surface wave tomography, receiver function analysis and active source experiments. It includes two interfaces, namely the topography/bathymetry and the Mohorovičić (Moho) discontinuity. The Moho was modelled from previously published receiver function analysis and deep seismic sounding results. To that end we used a probabilistic surface reconstruction algorithm that allowed to extract the mean of the Moho depth surface along with its associated standard deviation, which provides a depth uncertainty estimate. The Moho depth model is in good agreement with previously published models, although it presents slightly sharper gardients in orogenic areas such as the Pyrenees or the Betic-Rif system. Crustal and mantle P- and S-wave wave speed grids were built separately on each side of the Moho depth surface by weighted average of existing models, thus allowing to realistically render the speed gradients across that interface. The associated weighted standard deviation was also calculated, which provides an uncertainty estimation on the average wave speed values at any point of the grid. At shallow depths (<10 km), low P and S wave speeds and high VP/VS are observed in offshore basins, while the Iberian Massif, which covers a large part of western Iberia, appears characterized by a rather flat Moho, higher than average VP and VS and low VP/VS. Conversely, the Betic-Rif system seems to be associated with low VP and VS, combined with high VP/VS in comparison to the rest of the study area. The most prominent feature of the mantle is the well known high wave speed anomaly related to the Alboran slab imaged in various mantle tomography studies. The consistency of PRISM3D with previous work is verified by comparing it with two recent studies, with which it shows a good general agreement.The impact of the new 3-D model is illustrated through a simple synthetic experiment, which shows that the lateral variations of the wave speed can produce traveltime differences ranging from –1.5 and 1.5 s for P waves and from –2.5 and 2.5 s for S waves at local to regional distances. Such values are far larger than phase picking uncertainties and would likely affect earthquake hypocentral parameter estimations. The new 3-D model thus provides a basis for regional studies including earthquake source studies, Earth structure investigations and geodynamic modelling of Iberia and its surroundings.

Arroucau, P.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling

Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.

Model ensembles↗

NASA NTRS1999

Estimating the Uncertainty in Passive-Microwave Rain Retrievals

Current passive-microwave rain-retrieval methods are largely based on databases built off-line using cloud models.

Passive-microwave estimation rainfall distribution↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Version 4 of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Algorithm and Data Product

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with a mean latency of ~2.5 days. The underlying L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP radiometer brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially-distributed ensemble Kalman filter. Version 4 of the L4_SM modeling system includes a reduction in the upward recharge of surface soil moisture from below under non-equilibrium conditions, resulting in reduced bias and improved dynamic range of L4_SM surface soil moisture compared to earlier versions. This change and additional technical modifications to the system reduce the mean and standard deviation of the observation-minus-forecast Tb residuals and overall soil moisture analysis increments while maintaining the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture estimates versus independent in situ measurements; the average, bias-adjusted RMSE in Version 4 is 0.039 m(exp 3) m(exp -3) for surface and 0.026 m(exp 3) m(exp -3) for root-zone soil moisture. Moreover, the coverage of assimilated SMAP observations in Version 4 is near-global owing to the use of additional satellite Tb records for algorithm calibration. L4_SM soil moisture uncertainty estimates are biased low (by 0.01-0.02 m(exp 3) m(exp -3)) against actual errors (computed versus in situ measurements). L4_SM runoff estimates, an additional product of the L4_SM algorithm, are biased low (by 35 mm year (exp -1)) against streamflow measurements. Compared to Version 3, bias in Version 4 is reduced by 46% for surface soil moisture uncertainty estimates and by 33% for runoff estimates.

RMSE↗