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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

Composition and structure of the Venus atmosphere - Results from Pioneer Venus

The composition of the Venusian atmosphere was studied using a mass spectrometer on the Pioneer Venus sounder probe. The single-focusing magnetic-sector spectrometer scanned the mass range from hydrogen through mercury with a dynamic range of six decades. Data taken by the mass spectrometer were compared with those of a gas chromatograph, resulting in slight discrepancies due to the use of a sputter ion pump acting as a sink for entry of rare gases through the inlet leak. A surprisingly large concentration of primordial Ar-36 and Ar-38 was discovered in a ratio of 5 to 1. It was concluded that the large excess of primordial argon was a valid result and that the mixing of HCl in the lower Venusian atmosphere was less than a few parts per million. Arguments against the sun as the source for excess primordial gases on Venus were presented. Concentrations of other elements such as Ne, Kr, He, S, and O were discussed. Although the mass peaks in the spectrum were real, it was not clear whether all of the chemical reactions (i.e., COS production) actually occurred in the atmosphere. Until further analysis can be made, it will be uncertain how the inlet system, which is at atmospheric temperature, affected the results.

Hoffman, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Stochastic robustness

To carry out stochastic robustness analysis, an expected probability distribution is assigned to each uncertain parameter in the system. The Monte Carlo analysis proceeds by repeatedly assigning shaped random values to each plant parameter, evaluating the stability of performance metric, and performing the binary classification (stable/unstable, etc.). If the system is stable, the state response to a unit disturbance impulse can be propagated to establish whether the response would violate settling time envelopes and whether peak actuator use would violate predetermined maximums. The final estimates of the probability of each form of unacceptable behavior are found by dividing the number of cases in which the overall system had that form of unacceptability by the number of cases run. Stability robustness can be portrayed graphically using the stochastic root locus and by using histograms of parameter values found in the unacceptable cases.

Marrison, C.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Hypersonic Vehicle Trajectory Optimization and Control

Two classes of neural networks have been developed for the study of hypersonic vehicle trajectory optimization and control. The first one is called an 'adaptive critic'. The uniqueness and main features of this approach are that: (1) they need no external training; (2) they allow variability of initial conditions; and (3) they can serve as feedback control. This is used to solve a 'free final time' two-point boundary value problem that maximizes the mass at the rocket burn-out while satisfying the pre-specified burn-out conditions in velocity, flightpath angle, and altitude. The second neural network is a recurrent network. An interesting feature of this network formulation is that when its inputs are the coefficients of the dynamics and control matrices, the network outputs are the Kalman sequences (with a quadratic cost function); the same network is also used for identifying the coefficients of the dynamics and control matrices. Consequently, we can use it to control a system whose parameters are uncertain. Numerical results are presented which illustrate the potential of these methods.

Balakrishnan, S. N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Robust Passification via Optimal Sensor Blending and Control Allocation

Robust passification is considered for uncertain linear, time invariant, systems having redundant actuators and sensors. The approach is to obtain optimal sensor blending and control allocation matrices that maximize the region in the parameter space in which the system remains passive. The approach results in a generalized eigenvalue problem consisting of a number of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Reduction of the number of LMIs is investigated, and a numerical example is given for demonstrating the approach.

Joshi, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Robust Passification via Optimal Sensor Blending and Control Allocation

Robust passification is considered for uncertain linear, time invariant systems having redundant actuators and sensors. The approach is to obtain optimal sensor blending and control allocation matrices that maximize the region in the parameter space in which the system remains passive. The approach results in a generalized eigenvalue problem consisting of a number of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Reduction of the number of LMIs is investigated, and a numerical example is given for demonstrating the approach.

Joshi, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Experiences with Probabilistic Analysis Applied to Controlled Systems

This paper presents a semi-analytic method for computing frequency dependent means, variances, and failure probabilities for arbitrarily large-order closed-loop dynamical systems possessing a single uncertain parameter or with multiple highly correlated uncertain parameters. The approach will be shown to not suffer from the same computational challenges associated with computing failure probabilities using conventional FORM/SORM techniques. The approach is demonstrated by computing the probabilistic frequency domain performance of an optimal feed-forward disturbance rejection scheme.

Kenny, Sean P.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The empirical accuracy of uncertain inference models

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of the domains in which expert systems are designed to function. Research design to test uncertain inference methods for accuracy and robustness, in accordance with standard engineering practice is reviewed. Several studies were conducted to assess how well various methods perform on problems constructed so that correct answers are known, and to find out what underlying features of a problem cause strong or weak performance. For each method studied, situations were identified in which performance deteriorates dramatically. Over a broad range of problems, some well known methods do only about as well as a simple linear regression model, and often much worse than a simple independence probability model. The results indicate that some commercially available expert system shells should be used with caution, because the uncertain inference models that they implement can yield rather inaccurate results.

Vaughan, David S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Black-Scholes Approach to Satisfying the Demand in a Failure-Prone Manufacturing System

The goal of this paper is to use a financial model and a hedging strategy in a systems application. In particular, the classical Black-Scholes model, which was developed in 1973 to find the fair price of a financial contract, is adapted to satisfy an uncertain demand in a manufacturing system when one of two production machines is unreliable. This financial model together with a hedging strategy are used to develop a closed formula for the production strategies of each machine. The strategy guarantees that the uncertain demand will be met in probability at the final time of the production process. It is assumed that the production efficiency of the unreliable machine can be modeled as a continuous-time stochastic process. Two simple examples illustrate the result.

Chavez-Fuentes, Jorge R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for improving Space Shuttle engine reliability

Probabilistic structural analysis methods are particularly useful in the design and analysis of critical structural components and systems that operate in very severe and uncertain environments. These methods have recently found application in space propulsion systems to improve the structural reliability of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. A computer program, NESSUS, based on a deterministic finite-element program and a method of probabilistic analysis (fast probability integration) provides probabilistic structural analysis for selected SSME components. While computationally efficient, it considers both correlated and nonnormal random variables as well as an implicit functional relationship between independent and dependent variables. The program is used to determine the response of a nickel-based superalloy SSME turbopump blade. Results include blade tip displacement statistics due to the variability in blade thickness, modulus of elasticity, Poisson's ratio or density. Modulus of elasticity significantly contributed to blade tip variability while Poisson's ratio did not. Thus, a rational method for choosing parameters to be modeled as random is provided.

Boyce, L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A review on the integration of probabilistic solar forecasting in power systems

As one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources, the integration of solar power poses great challenges to power systems due to its variable and uncertain nature. As an effective approach to promote the integration of solar power in power systems, the value of probabilistic forecasts is being increasingly recognized in the recent decade. While the current use of probabilistic forecasts in power systems is limited, enormous amount of research has been conducted to promote the adoption of probabilistic forecasts and many methods have been proposed. This paper gives a comprehensive review on how probabilistic solar forecasts are utilized in power systems to address the challenges. Potential methods to deal with uncertainties in power systems are summarized, such as probabilistic load flow models, stochastic optimization, robust optimization, and chance constraints. Additionally, specific areas where these methods can be applied are discussed and state-of-the-art studies are summarized.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal PV Inverter Control in Distribution Systems via Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization

Distribution systems with high penetration of uncertain solar generation call for advanced control strategies of photovoltaics (PVs) inverters. This paper proposes a data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DDDRO) approach to optimally controlling the PV inverters to improve the system operation performance under solar power uncertainties. In the proposed DDDRO approach, a Wasserstein ball-based method is proposed to construct the distributional ambiguity set to model the uncertainties of PV generation through partial observations of historical data without knowing exact probability distributions. We further reformulate the computationally intractable DDDRO model to a mixed integer second order cone programming (MISOCP) problem. The effectiveness and out-of-sample performance of the proposed approach have been demonstrated on a modified IEEE 33-node system. We conduct a comparative study to compare the proposed method with traditional chance constrained programming (CCP). It shows that the proposed DDDRO approach can provide a less conservative yet robust solution to minimize the worse-case expectation of the total network loss while maintaining nodal voltages in a secure range.

Xue, Yaosuo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Noise: Paths toward AI-Enabled Stochastic Earth System Models and Parameterizations

Some of the key challenges in Earth system prediction arise from an uncertain representation of unpredictable natural variability, across time and space scales. This variability, hereafter referred to as noise, represents the quantity against which the strength of a signal of interest is measured to assess predictability. Underestimating or overestimating this noise in Earth system models can lead to issues ranging between overconfidence in an erroneous prediction and a lack thereof in an otherwise accurate one. Noise is part of the physical processes in the Earth system and can amplify or damp a signal of interest in a complex manner that is not systematically characterized. Specifically, while there has been significant progress in our understanding of multiscale interactions among known modes of variability (potentially predictable signals), how these are impacted by the noise is not clear. Recent effort toward stochastic parametrization schemes that provide a representation of noise due to uncertain sub-grid processes in climate models (Berner et al., 2017 and references therein) has shown promise not only in reducing biases and improving probabilistic prediction but also in improving the representation of natural variability in the model toward what is observed. However, today’s standard schemes for stochastic parametrization are still simplistic as they do not take the state of the atmosphere into account (other than by the use of multiplicative noise for model tendencies). Furthermore they require hand-tuning and trial-and-error testing for the magnitude of the added noise, which is difficult in a chaotic system that is as complex as the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Parameter Uncertainty Analysis of Single Input Single Output Control Systems

The current standards for handling uncertainty in control systems use interval bounds for definition of the uncertain parameters. This approach gives no information about the likelihood of system performance, but simply gives the response bounds. When used in design, current methods of m-analysis and can lead to overly conservative controller design. With these methods, worst case conditions are weighted equally with the most likely conditions. This research explores a unique approach for probabilistic analysis of control systems. Current reliability methods are examined showing the strong areas of each in handling probability. A hybrid method is developed using these reliability tools for efficiently propagating probabilistic uncertainty through classical control analysis problems. The method developed is applied to classical response analysis as well as analysis methods that explore the effects of the uncertain parameters on stability and performance metrics. The benefits of using this hybrid approach for calculating the mean and variance of responses cumulative distribution functions are shown. Results of the probabilistic analysis of a missile pitch control system, and a non-collocated mass spring system, show the added information provided by this hybrid analysis.

Smith, Brett A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temporal performance indicators for an integrated pilot-scale membrane distillation-concentrated solar power/photovoltaic system

Management of concentrate streams in inland applications has uncertain long-term environmental impacts. This study investigates an intensified solar-energy capture desalination system that integrates membrane distillation (MD) with a hybrid concentrated solar power (CSP)/photovoltaic (PV) collector to realize self-sustained zero-waste discharge for effective management of concentrate streams in inland and off-grid applications. The demonstration-scale CSP/PV system can produce up to 178 kWh of thermal energy and 4 kWh of electrical energy per day. The thermal and electrical energy from the CSP/PV system is directly supplied to the air gap MD (AGMD) pilot-scale system producing up to 288 L of distilled water per day. Experiments were performed on the hybrid AGMD-CSP/PV system to evaluate system performance under various operating conditions including AGMD and CSP flow rates, CSP system pre-heating, and AGMD vacuum pressure. Experimental results indicate that doubling the AGMD flow rate results in a 119% increase in thermal energy utilization and a 71% increase in distillate production. Compared to the winter months, operating the system in summer months when direct normal irradiance (DNI) is highest results in nearly double the distillate production (88 L in winter and 168 L in summer) and nearly three times the amount of thermal energy consumption (15 kWh in winter and 43 kWh in summer). Operating with vacuum resulted in a 34% increase in distillate production and allowing the thermal storage reservoir to preheat in the winter resulted in a 61% increase in distillate production. Altogether, experimental results highlight the tradeoff between distillate production and thermal and electrical energy production and consumption under various environmental conditions and the potential for AGMD-CSP/PV to be a stand-alone desalination system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1998

On the Numerical Formulation of Parametric Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) Uncertainty Models for Multivariate Matrix Polynomial Problems

Robust control system analysis and design is based on an uncertainty description, called a linear fractional transformation (LFT), which separates the uncertain (or varying) part of the system from the nominal system. These models are also useful in the design of gain-scheduled control systems based on Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) methods. Low-order LFT models are difficult to form for problems involving nonlinear parameter variations. This paper presents a numerical computational method for constructing and LFT model for a given LPV model. The method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, and uses simple matrix computations to obtain an exact low-order LFT representation of the given LPV system without the use of model reduction. Although the method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, multivariate rational problems can also be solved using this method by reformulating the rational problem into a polynomial form.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Integrated control/structure design and robustness

When a flexible structure is to be controlled actively, optimum performance is obtained by integrated, or simultaneous, design of the structure and the controller, as opposed to the common practice of designing the structure independently of control consideration and then designing a controller for a fixed structure. The primary design objective from the structural point of view usually is to minimize weight, while the control design objectives depend on the application. An important requirement for a practical control system is robustness with respect to uncertain plant parameters. This paper discusses simultaneous control/structure design when the overall design objective combines the weight of the structure and the robustness of the closed-loop control system. For numerical optimization, robustness is represented by the sensitivity of the closed-loop eigenvalues with respect to uncertain parameters. An example illustrates the optimal design of a flexible structure along with a robust compensator.

Adamian, A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Generalized proportional-plus-derivative compensators for a class of uncertain plants

Controller design for a class of systems consisting of a positive-real transfer function P(s) followed by an integrator is considered. A generalized proportional-plus-derivative compensator is proposed for robustly stabilizing a class of uncertain plants represented by a positive-real transfer function followed by an integrator. The novel feature of the proposed compensator is that the proportional and rate gains used are transfer functions rather than constants, which allows more design freedom and offers the potential for better performance with guaranteed robust stability. The results obtained are for single-input/single-output systems. If the results are extended to the multivariable case, they will then be applicable to realistic flexible spacecraft.

Joshi, Suresh M.↗