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DOE OSTI2020

Regional Assessment for the CO 2 Storage Potential in the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The report describes the regional analysis of the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) in Northern Michigan as part of the MRCSP programs Regional Assessment goals. The goal of this task was to perform an initial assessment of the geologic storage capacity and injectivity of the Northern Fairway of Michigan’s Niagaran Reef Trend. This was achieved through three main objectives: 1) development of a reef atlas, 2) understanding the regional trends in geology, and 3) estimating CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources. Data collected across multiple subtasks were integrated into a mappable database that could be accessed from many of the leading software. The reef atlas was used to map the reefs and associated characteristics across the entire NNPRT. Several methodologies were explored to estimate the CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources across the trend which included three scenarios: 1) storage only using fluid substitution and volumetric estimations, 2) CO 2 -EOR which applied proximity analysis concepts and measured performance metrics from the Core Energy reefs to predict performance at all oil reefs, and 3) enhanced storage scenario which combined CO 2 -EOR with fluid substitution to represent maximized storage after completion of CO 2 -EOR.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States (2021 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The latest edition of the report focuses on systems installed through year-end 2020, and is based on data from roughly 2.2 million systems, covering 79% of all distributed PV systems installed nationally through 2020. The report describes trends related to project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership. Median installed-price trends, including both long-term and more recent temporal trends at the national and state levels, with comparisons to other recent PV cost and pricing benchmarks as well as to prices reported for other countries. Variability in pricing across individual projects based on system size, state, installer, module efficiency, inverter technology, and non-residential customer type. The report also includes an econometric analysis to estimate the effects of individual drivers on installed prices for host-owned residential systems installed in 2020.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2022 Edition

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The latest edition of the report focuses on systems installed through year-end 2021, and is based on data from roughly 2.5 million systems. New to the report this year is an expanded coverage of paired PV-plus-storage systems, including details on system design and pricing trends. The report describes trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state, including preliminary data for first half of 2022 -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive and econometric analysis

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends: 2024 Update [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s "Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends" summarizes recent trends in retail electricity price levels and price drivers in the United States. This report is intended to serve as a reference document for the diverse set of decision-makers impacted by changes in retail electricity prices and to provide a factual basis for assessing recent changes in retail electricity prices and key underlying drivers. National, regional, and state trends are reported for 2019 through 2023 using publicly-available data for: -Average retail electricity prices, retail sales, and utility revenues -Utility capital expenditures, operations and maintenance costs, and fuel and purchased power costs -Retail electricity sales impacts from behind-the-meter resources The report also includes qualitative case studies highlighting recent and/or regionally-specific issues contributing significantly to retail electricity price trends

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

The author has identified the following significant results. In the Utah-Nevada area, linear structural trends recorded on ERTS-1 imagery conform in part to previously recognized structures. In addition, the ERTS-1 imagery reveals cryptic structures not previously identified and not readily apparent in other imagery. These structures are illustrated by prominent east-west trending structures which appear to be concentrated in pre-volcanic rocks. This suggests that the structures are older than many of those with other trends which are equally prominent in volcanic and non-volcanic terrain. Since the older east-west structures may have controlled early Tertiary emplacement of magma or the ascent of mineralizing fluids, their recognition is important in minerial exploration. Soil-gas sampling and analysis for mercury content is being continued over structures, and projected trends of buried structures which appear, from studies of ERTS-1 imagery, to be favorable to mineralization. Comparison of ERTS-1 and Skylab imagery indicated that ERTS-1 imagery records more previously unrecognized linear structures than the Skylab imagery. In differentiating and identifying different rock types, the Skylab imagery appears to be more effective.

Jensen, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Diurnal and seasonal trends in the incidence of Sudden Commencements (SC) and Sudden Impulses SI

Based on world data for the period 1 January 1955 to 31 December 1968, reports of 894 SC cases and 2152 SI cases were collected. A study was made of the diurnal and seasonal trends in the incidence of their appearances. It is shown that the diurnal trend is pronounced for all events with a maximum at (06-8)h universal time. The diurnal trend for SC in the resultant period is more pronounced. The seasonal trend in incidence of appearances of SC and SI is absent. Thus, geomagnetic disturbances of both SC and SI are monitored by world time. These results lead to the conclusion that the presence or absence of SC and SI during geomagnetic storms is determined not only by the nature of the corpuscular flux, the presence of shock waves and tangential discontinuities, but also by purely terrestrial conditions.

Nesmyanovich, E. I.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Analyses of atmospheric extinction data obtained by astronomers. I - A time-trend analysis of data with internal accidental errors obtained at four observatories

Long-term time-trend analysis was performed on astronomical atmospheric extinction data in wideband UBV and various narrow-band systems recorded at Cerro Tololo, Kitt Peak, Lick, and McDonald observatories. All of the data had to be transformed into uniform monochromatic extinction data before trend analysis could be performed. The paper describes the various reduction techniques employed. The time-trend analysis was then carried out by the method of least squares. A special technique, called 'histogram shaping', was employed to adjust for the fact that the errors of the reduced monochromatic extinction data were not essentially Gaussian. On the assumption that there are no compensatory background and local extinction changes, the best values obtained for extinction trends due to background aerosol changes during the years 1960 to 1972 are 0.006 + or - 0.013 (rms) and 0.009 + or - 0.009 (rms) stellar magnitudes per air mass per decade in the blue and yellow wavelength regions, respectively.

Taylor, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Oxidant and precursor trends in the metropolitan Los Angeles region

This paper describes recent historical trends in oxidant and precursors in the Los Angeles region. Control strategies and basinwide emission trends for nitrogen oxides and reactive hydrocarbons are documented year by year from 1965 to 1974. Trends in the geographic distribution of emissions are illustrated by computing net percentage emission changes over the decade for individual counties. The changes in emissions are compared with changes in ambient precursor concentrations and oxidant concentrations. We find that many of the changes in monitored air quality can be explained by trends in both total emissions and the spatial distribution of emissions.

Trijonis, J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Linear trends in Northern Hemisphere tropospheric geopotential height and temperature patterns

Gridded National Meteorological Center data for 500 mb geopotential height and 300-500 mb and 500-700 mb thickness for the period 1951-1978 are subjected to linear trend analyses. The analyses are carried out for each calendar month. Significant geographical and seasonal distributions of cooling and warming patterns are found. An atmospheric cooling trend over the North Pacific during the winter months is seen in a region where oceanic cooling has also been observed, but planetary-wave adjustments rather than ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanisms appear to be dominant in the atmospheric cooling on climatic time scales. Consistently large temperature trends are also seen over the continent of Asia. Comparisons between thickness trends in the layer 300-500 mb and those in the layer 500-700 mb reveal pronounced patterns of stabilization and destabilization.

Reiter, E. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Effects of fractional crystallization and cumulus processes on mineral composition trends of some lunar and terrestrial rock series

A plot of Mg of mafic minerals versus An of plagioclase in cumulate rocks from various lunar and terrestrial rock series shows each series to have a distinct curvilinear trend. The slopes of these trends vary from nearly vertical in the case of lunar anorthosites and Mg-norites to nearly horizontal in the case of gabbros from the mid-Atlantic ridge. Calculations based upon known major element partitioning between mafic minerals, plagioclase and subalkaline basaltic liquids indicate that fractional crystallization coupled with cotectic accumulation of mafic minerals and plagioclase will produce mineral composition trends on the Mg versus An diagram with slopes greater than 1 for cases where An is approximately greater than Mg. Furthermore, fractional crystallization of basaltic magmas with alkali concentrations approaching zero will produce near vertical Mg versus An trends. Therefore, the steep slopes of the lunar rock series are consistent with relatively simple fractionation processes. The relatively flat slope of mineral compositions from gabbros collected from the mid-Atlantic ridge at 26 deg N is inconsistent with simple fractionation processes, and calculations show that periodic refilling of a fractionating magma chamber with picritic magma cannot simply explain this flat slope either.

Longhi, J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Bomber design trends

Some basic trends in bomber aircraft are traced from the pre-World War I era to the present time. The historic review includes bombers of many countries. The primary discussion, however, will be based on U.S. bomber programs and, to the extent possible, on USSR bomber programs. The bomber aircraft will be examined in terms of performance and mission capability.Characteristics will include power or thrust loading, wing loading, maximum speed, cruising speed, weight and weight distribution, and payload. These trends can be used to indicate the rationale for certain design types. Performance characteristics can be used to indicate potential mission objectives. The overall design trends should be useful in revealing the influence of mission objectives, the influence of advanced technology and, in turn, may be useful in predicting likely future trends.

Spearman, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Design trends for Army/Air Force airplanes in the United States

Some design trends in Army/Air Force airplane systems in the U.S. are traced from the pre-World War 2 era to the present time. Various types of aircraft systems are reviewed with a view toward noting design features that were used. Some observations concerning the design trends indicate that some may be driven by advanced technology and some by a need for new mission requirements. In addition, it is noted that some design trends are evolutionary and result in an extension of service life or utility of existing systems. In other cases the design trends may be more revolutionary with the intent of creating a system with a new capability. Some examples are included of designs that did not proceed to production for reasons that sometimes were technical and sometimes were not.

Spearman, M. Leroy↗

NASA NTRS1989

Post World War II trends in tropical Pacific surface trades

Multidecadal time series of surface winds from central tropical Pacific islands are used to compute trends in the trade winds between the end of WWII and 1985. Over this period, averaged over the whole region, there is no statistically significant trend in speed or zonal or meridional wind (or pseudostress). However, there is some tendency, within a few degrees of the equator, toward weakening of the easterlies and increased meridional flow toward the equator. Anomalous conditions subsequent to the 1972-73 ENSO event make a considerable contribution to the long-term trends. The period 1974-80 has been noted previously to have been anomalous, and trends over that period are sharply greater than those over the longer records.

Harrison, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Is it possible to identify a trend in problem/failure data

One of the major obstacles in identifying and interpreting a trend is the small number of data points. Future trending reports will begin with 1983 data. As the problem/failure data are aggregated by year, there are just seven observations (1983 to 1989) for the 1990 reports. Any statistical inferences with a small amount of data will have a large degree of uncertainty. Consequently, a regression technique approach to identify a trend is limited. Though trend determination by failure mode may be unrealistic, the data may be explored for consistency or stability and the failure rate investigated. Various alternative data analysis procedures are briefly discussed. Techniques that could be used to explore problem/failure data by failure mode are addressed. The data used are taken from Section One, Space Shuttle Main Engine, of the Calspan Quarterly Report dated April 2, 1990.

Church, Curtis K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Recent trends in stratospheric ozone - Implications of ozone and temperature correlation

The relation between ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere is used to estimate the drift in the SBUV spectrometer on Nimbus-7 and the linear trend in ozone from 1979 to 1986. The ozone and temperature variabilities are coupled through chemical and dynamical processes. In the upper stratosphere they are anticorrelated through temperature-dependent loss rates, while in the lower stratosphere their variabilities are positively correlated through dynamical coupling. These relations are used to determine the ozone sensitivity to temperature and ozone trends in terms of temperature trends. It is shown that in the upper stratosphere (approximately 2 mbar), the eight-year trend in ozone is a manifestation of dynamical perturbations. It varies from about +4 percent at the equator to about -1 to -2 percent at high latitudes in both hemispheres.

Chandra, S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The NASA trend analysis program

The four main areas of the NASA trend analysis program (problem/reliability, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending) are defined and illustrated with examples from Space Shuttle applications. Emphasis is on the programmatic-trending component of the program and several of the statistical techniques used. Also described is the NASA safety, reliability, maintainability, and quality assurance management information center, used to focus management attention on key near-term launch concerns and long-range mission trend issues.

Crawford, J. Larry↗

NASA NTRS1990

Five basic steps to problem trending

Five basic steps to problem trending evolved from experience in trending problems on Space Shuttle hardware are discussed: extracting data; constructing a Pareto chart of all failure modes; constructing normalized subsystem, component, and failure-mode trend charts; identifying trend direction; and providing a summary assessment. The five-step method has been useful for identifying failure modes of concern, evaluating the effectiveness of corrective actions, and determining funding allocation.

Bombara, Elwood L.↗