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NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRS2011

Analysis of ALTAIR 1998 Meteor Radar Data

We describe a new analysis of a set of 32 UHF meteor radar traces recorded with the 422 MHz ALTAIR radar facility in November 1998. Emphasis is on the velocity measurements, and on inferences that can be drawn from them regarding the meteor masses and mass densities. We find that the velocity vs altitude data can be fitted as quadratic functions of the path integrals of the atmospheric densities vs distance, and deceleration rates derived from those fits all show the expected behavior of increasing with decreasing altitude. We also describe a computer model of the coupled processes of collisional heating, radiative cooling, evaporative cooling and ablation, and deceleration - for meteors composed of defined mixtures of mineral constituents. For each of the cases in the data set we ran the model starting with the measured initial velocity and trajectory inclination, and with various trial values of the quantity mPs 2 (the initial mass times the mass density squared), and then compared the computed deceleration vs altitude curves vs the measured ones. In this way we arrived at the best-fit values of the mPs 2 for each of the measured meteor traces. Then further, assuming various trial values of the density Ps, we compared the computed mass vs altitude curves with similar curves for the same set of meteors determined previously from the measured radar cross sections and an electrostatic scattering model. In this way we arrived at estimates of the best-fit mass densities Ps for each of the cases. Keywords meteor ALTAIR radar analysis 1 Introduction This paper describes a new analysis of a set of 422 MHz meteor scatter radar data recorded with the ALTAIR High-Power-Large-Aperture radar facility at Kwajalein Atoll on 18 November 1998. The exceptional accuracy/precision of the ALTAIR tracking data allow us to determine quite accurate meteor trajectories, velocities and deceleration rates. The measurements and velocity/deceleration data analysis are described in Sections II and III. The main point of this paper is to use these deceleration rate data, together with results from a computer model, to determine values of the quantities mPs 2 (the meteor mass times its material density squared); and further, by combining these m s 2 values with meteor mass estimates for the same set of meteors determined separately from measured radar scattering

Zinn, J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A spatially regularized detector for emergent/re-emergent disease outbreaks

Early detection of outbreaks caused by emergent pathogens, using epidemiological surveillance data i.e., daily case counts, is difficult. This is because the data tend to be noisy during the early epoch of the outbreak. In contrast, the spread-rate of the disease tends to be well-behaved, as it depends only on the mixing patterns of the population and the characteristics of the pathogen, neither of which behave erratically in space-time. In this report, we explore whether the spread-rate can be used for epidemiological surveillance, conditional on case count data. Estimating the spread-rate from case count data allows us to exploit exogenous information, e.g., incubation period distributions etc., which can considerably smooth out any erratic temporal behavior. Further, epidemiological dynamics are spatially correlated, and if case counts are available for multiple areal units e.g., counties, these correlations could potentially be used to suppress noise in the early epoch data. These exogenous information and structure are not exploited by conventional syndromic surveillance detectors to extract a well-behaved latent variable for monitoring purposes. The technical challenge lies in the estimation of the spread-rate field jointly over a collection of areal units; further, the spread-rate varies over time. We develop a method based on mean-field variational inference to approximately estimate the spread-rate field, using a Gaussian Random Field Model for spatial regularization. The method is tested on the estimation of spread-rate in the thirty-three counties of New Mexico and detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave in September 2020. We find that the method is scalable, but underestimates the uncertainty in the estimated spread-rate field. We detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 wave a week ahead of conventional syndromic surveillance algorithms, but our simplistic detection algorithm, based on simple anomaly detection, suffers from a high false positive rate, similar to conventional detectors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating SHmax azimuth with P sources and vertical geophones: Use P-P reflection amplitudes or use SV-P reflection times?

We compared two methods for extracting the azimuth of maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) from 3D land-based seismic data generated by a P source and recorded with vertical geophones. In the first method, we used the direct-SV mode that is produced by all land-based P sources. P sources generate SV illumination that radiates in all azimuth directions from a source station and creates SV-P reflections that are recorded by vertical geophones. Unless stratigraphy has steep dip, SV-P raypaths recorded by vertical geophones are the reverse of P-SV raypaths recorded by horizontal geophones. Thus, SV-P data provide the same S-wave sensitivity to stress fields as popular P-SV data do. In the second method, we retrieved P-P reflections and then performed an amplitude-variation-with-azimuth (AVA) analysis of the amplitude-gradient behavior of P-P reflection wavelets. We did this analysis in narrow azimuth corridors to determine the gradient of reflection-wavelet amplitudes as a function of azimuth. This P-P AVA amplitude-gradient method has been of great interest in the reflection seismology community since it was introduced in the late 1990s. Each of these methods, AVA analysis of the gradient of P-P reflection amplitudes and azimuth-dependent arrival times of SV-P reflections, can be used to determine the azimuth of SHmax stress. We compare the results of the two methods with ground truth measurements of SHmax azimuth at a CO 2 sequestration site in the Michigan Basin. SHmax azimuths were determined from P-P and SV-P data at three major boundaries at depths of approximately 3500 ft (1067 m), 5500 ft (1676 m), and 7500 ft (2286 m). Two estimates of SHmax azimuth (one using SV-P data and one using P-P data) were made at each stacking bin inside a 24 mi 2 (62 km 2 ) image space. The result was approximately 98,000 estimates of SHmax azimuth across each of these three boundaries for each of these two prediction strategies. Histogram displays of PP AVA gradient estimates had peaks at correct azimuths of SHmax at all three depths, but the spread of the distributions widened with depth and split into two peaks at the deepest boundary. In contrast, each histogram of SHmax azimuth predicted by azimuth-dependent SV-P traveltimes had a single, definitive peak that was positioned at the correct SHmax azimuth at all three boundary depths.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS1984

Beta decay and the origin of biologial chirality - New experimental results

The hypothetical connection developed by Vester and Ulbricht (1959), between the handedness of beta particles in radioactive decay and the (L) sign of biologial chirality is investigated in a radiolysis experiment. The experiment measured the predicted asymmetry in the formation triplet or 'ortho-' positronium (oPs) in amino acid enantiomers by low energy positrons under conditions of helicity reversal. The positrons were focused on amino acid powder samples. By measuring the time between positron arrival and emission of gamma rays, long-lived oPs were separated from other species. It is found that the asymmetry in leucine (0.8 x 10 to the -4th) is consistent with the theoretical prediction of 10 to the -6th. Neither the experimental limits nor the theoretical estimates are found to rule out a mechanism like that described by Vester and Ulbricht as the cause of the sign of the observed chiral polarization.

Van House, J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

A piloted simulator evaluation of a ground-based 4D descent advisor algorithm

A ground-based, four-dimensional (4D) descent-advisor algorithm is under development at NASA Ames Research Center. The algorithm combines detailed aerodynamic, propulsive, and atmospheric models with an efficient numerical integration scheme to generate 4D descent advisories. This paper investigates the ability of the 4D descent advisor algorithm to provide adequate control of arrival time for aircraft not equipped with on-board 4D guidance systems. A piloted simulation was conducted to determine the precision with which the descent advisor could predict the 4D trajectories of typical straight-in descents flown by airline pilots under different wind conditions. The effects of errors in the estimation of wind and initial aircraft weight were also studied. A description of the descent advisor as well as the results of the simulation studies are presented.

Green, Steven M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A piloted simulator evaluation of a ground-based 4-D descent advisor algorithm

A ground-based, four dimensional (4D) descent-advisor algorithm is under development at NASA-Ames. The algorithm combines detailed aerodynamic, propulsive, and atmospheric models with an efficient numerical integration scheme to generate 4D descent advisories. The ability is investigated of the 4D descent advisor algorithm to provide adequate control of arrival time for aircraft not equipped with on-board 4D guidance systems. A piloted simulation was conducted to determine the precision with which the descent advisor could predict the 4D trajectories of typical straight-in descents flown by airline pilots under different wind conditions. The effects of errors in the estimation of wind and initial aircraft weight were also studied. A description of the descent advisor as well as the result of the simulation studies are presented.

Davis, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Benefit Estimates of Terminal Area Productivity Program Technologies

This report documents benefit analyses for the NASA Terminal Area Technology (TAP) technology programs. Benefits are based on reductions in arrival delays at ten major airports over the 10 years from 2006 through 2015. Detailed analytic airport capacity and delay models were constructed to produce the estimates. The goal of TAP is enable good weather operations tempos in all weather conditions. The TAP program includes technologies to measure and predict runway occupancy times, reduce runway occupancy times in bad weather, accurately predict wake vortex hazards, and couple controller automation with aircraft flight management systems. The report presents and discusses the estimate results and describes the models. Three appendixes document the model algorithms and discuss the input parameters selected for the TAP technologies. The fourth appendix is the user's guide for the models. The results indicate that the combined benefits for all TAP technologies at all 10 airports range from $550 to $650 million per year (in constant 1997 dollars). Additional benefits will accrue from reductions in departure delays. Departure delay benefits are calculated by the current models.

Hemm, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2019

Schedule Factors Associated with the Use of Controlled Rest in a Long-Haul Airline

Controlled Rest (CR) refers to a short, voluntary nap opportunity taken by pilots on the flight deck as a countermeasure to unanticipated sleepiness in flight. This study explores the profile of CR use in a long-haul commercial airline. Forty-four pilots wore actiwatches and filled in an application-based sleep/work diary for approximately 2 weeks. After merging sleep diary, actigraphy, and schedule data, complete records were analyzed from 240 flights. Sleep was estimated during CR intervals using the Philips Actiware 6.0.9 (Bend, OR) software with wake threshold set to medium. Timing of sleep periods and flight schedules were analyzed relative to home-base time. A mixed-effects binary logistics regression was used to analyze the impact of schedule factors on CR. Preliminary analyses revealed that CR was taken on 45% (n=107) of flights. Average sleep duration within these rest periods was estimated as 24.8 ± 16.1 minutes. CR was more frequent on return flights (arriving at home-base; 58%, n=69) vs. outbound flights (departing from home-base, 31%, n=38; p<0.001). There was no difference for direction of travel (eastbound: 49%, n= 56; westbound: 40%, n= 44; northbound/southbound: 50%, n=7; p=0.272). CR was more frequent on 2-pilot flights (62%, n=81) compared to augmented crew flights (24%, n=26; p<0.001). Of note, 21% (n=23) of augmented flights contained both CR and Bunk Rest. CR was more frequent on flights <10h duration (<10h: 59%, n=78; >10h: 27%, n=29; p<0.001). Flights departing between 12:00h-19:59h (25%, n=23; p<0.026) had the lowest frequency of CR. Data from this airline show that CR is most commonly used as a countermeasure to sleepiness on return, unaugmented, <10h duration, and nighttime flights. The direction of travel did not influence the use of CR. Future studies are required to determine generalizability of these results to other airlines.

Hilditch, Cassie↗

NASA NTRS2021

The NANOGrav 12.5 Year Data Set: Monitoring Interstellar Scattering Delays

We extract interstellar scintillation parameters for pulsars observed by the NANOGrav radio pulsar timing program. Dynamic spectra for the observing epochs of each pulsar were used to obtain estimates of scintillation timescales, scintillation bandwidths, and the corresponding scattering delays using a stretching algorithm to account for frequency-dependent scaling. We were able to measure scintillation bandwidths for 28 pulsars at1500 MHz and 15 pulsars at 820 MHz. We examine scaling behavior for 17 pulsars and find power-law indices ranging from−0.7 to−3.6, though these may be biased shallow due to insufficient frequency resolution at lower frequencies. We were also able to measure scintillation timescales for six pulsars at 1500 MHz and seven pulsars at820 MHz. There is fair agreement between our scattering delay measurements and electron-density model predictions for most pulsars. We derive interstellar scattering-based transverse velocities assuming isotropic scattering and a scattering screen halfway between the pulsar and Earth. We also estimate the location of the scattering screens assuming proper motion and interstellar scattering-derived transverse velocities are equal. We find no correlations between variations in scattering delay and either variations in dispersion measure or flux density. For most pulsars for which scattering delays are measurable, we find that time-of-arrival uncertainties for a given epoch are larger than our scattering delay measurements, indicating that variable scattering delays are currently subdominant in our overall noise budget but are important for achieving precisions of tens of nanoseconds or less.

Jacob E Turner↗

NASA NTRS2011

Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals

Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.

continous descent arrivals↗

NASA NTRS2023

Analyses of ∼0.05-2 Mev Ions Associated With the 2022 February 16 Esp Event Observed by Parker Solar Probe

We present analyses of 0.05–2 MeV ions from the 2022 February 16 energetic storm particle event observed by Parker Solar Probe's (PSP) IS⊙IS/EPI-Lo instrument at 0.35 au from the Sun. This event was characterized by an enhancement in ion fluxes from a quiet background, increasing gradually with time with a nearly flat spectrum, rising sharply near the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) driven shock, becoming nearly a power-law spectrum, then decaying exponentially afterwards, with a rate that was independent of energy. From the observed fluxes, we determine diffusion coefficients, finding that far upstream of the shock the diffusion coefficients are nearly independent of energy with a value of 10 20 cm 2 /s. Near the shock, the diffusion coefficients are more than one order of magnitude smaller and increase nearly linearly with energy. We also determine the source of energetic particles, by comparing ratios of the intensities at the shock to estimates of the quiet time intensity to predictions from diffusive shock acceleration theory. We conclude that the source of energetic ions is mostly the solar wind for this event. We also present potential interpretations of the near-exponential decay of the intensity behind the shock. One is that we suggest the shock was over-expanding when it crossed PSP and the energetic particle intensity decreased behind the shock to fill the expanding volume. Over-expanding CMEs could well be more common closer to the Sun, and this is an example of such a case.

Joe Giacalone↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Preliminary ZEUS Lightning Location Error Analysis Using a Modified Retrieval Theory

The ZEUS long-range VLF arrival time difference lightning detection network now covers both Europe and Africa, and there are plans for further expansion into the western hemisphere. In order to fully optimize and assess ZEUS lightning location retrieval errors and to determine the best placement of future receivers expected to be added to the network, a software package is being developed jointly between the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV). The software package, called the ZEUS Error Analysis for Lightning (ZEAL), will be used to obtain global scale lightning location retrieval error maps using both a Monte Carlo approach and chi-squared curvature matrix theory. At the core of ZEAL will be an implementation of an Iterative Oblate (IO) lightning location retrieval method recently developed at MSFC. The IO method will be appropriately modified to account for variable wave propagation speed, and the new retrieval results will be compared with the current ZEUS retrieval algorithm to assess potential improvements. In this preliminary ZEAL work effort, we defined 5000 source locations evenly distributed across the Earth. We then used the existing (as well as potential future ZEUS sites) to simulate arrival time data between source and ZEUS site. A total of 100 sources were considered at each of the 5000 locations, and timing errors were selected from a normal distribution having a mean of 0 seconds and a standard deviation of 20 microseconds. This simulated "noisy" dataset was analyzed using the IO algorithm to estimate source locations. The exact locations were compared with the retrieved locations, and the results are summarized via several color-coded "error maps."

Elander, Valjean↗

NASA NTRS2023

Analyses of ∼0.05–2 MeV Ions Associated with the 2022 February 16 Energetic Storm Particle Event Observed By Parker Solar Probe

We present analyses of 0.05–2 MeV ions from the 2022 February 16 energetic storm particle event observed by Parker Solar Probeʼs (PSP) ISeIS/EPI-Lo instrument at 0.35 au from the Sun. This event was characterized by an enhancement in ion fluxes from a quiet background, increasing gradually with time with a nearly flat spectrum, rising sharply near the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME)–driven shock, becoming nearly a power-law spectrum, then decaying exponentially afterward, with a rate that was independent of energy. From the observed fluxes, we determine diffusion coefficients, finding that far upstream of the shock the diffusion coefficients are nearly independent of energy, with a value of 10 20 cm 2 s −1 . Near the shock, the diffusion coefficients are more than 1 order of magnitude smaller and increase nearly linearly with energy. We also determine the source of energetic particles, by comparing ratios of the intensities at the shock to estimates of the quiet-time intensity to predictions from diffusive shock acceleration theory. We conclude that the source of energetic ions is mostly the solar wind for this event. We also present potential interpretations of the near-exponential decay of the intensity behind the shock. One possibility we suggest is that the shock was over expanding when it crossed PSP and the energetic particle intensity decreased behind the shock to fill the expanding volume. Over expanding CMEs could well be more common closer to the Sun, and this is an example of such a case.

Interplanetary particle acceleration↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ocean Variability Beneath the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Inferred From Basal Melt Rate Time Series

Fourteen phase-sensitive radars (ApRES) were deployed on the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) to measure variability in its basal melt rate. Melt rates from sites along the Ronne Depression vary seasonally, consistent with the dynamics of the propagation of seasonal dense water from the western ice front into the cavity. Several sites at the back of the FRIS cavity feature a signal with two seasonal maxima. Sub-ice shelf oceanographic data available from one of the sites indicate that this signal is caused by two different pathways followed by the same source water. Inter-annual variability is strongest along a direct flow pathway between western Ronne Ice Front and western Berkner Island. Highest melting occurred in 1999 and 2018, following anomalously low summer sea-ice concentrations in front of the ice shelf. Inter-annual melt rate variability at the back of the FRIS cavity is limited. If present, it is expressed as a suppression or delay in the arrival of the seasonal melt rate minimum, which can be understood in terms of inter-annual stratification changes and variable inflow pathways toward the sites. Long term mean ApRES melt rates agree with estimates from satellite data over eastern FRIS. However, the satellite estimates overstate the area of active basal freezing in the western part of the ice shelf. Furthermore, the temporal melt rate variability from the satellite estimates exaggerates the range of variability at both seasonal and inter-annual time scales with any correspondence between the in-situ and remotely derived inter-annual variability being limited to a single site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Orbital precession in Hercules X-1

It is noted that the 35-day X-ray high-low cycle of Her X-1 could be explained in terms of periodic obscuration of the source by a tilted and precessing 'slaved' accretion disk, which would require precession of the mass-shedding star and, consequently, a precessing binary orbit. Four months of Uhuru data obtained in 1972 are analyzed to determine whether the orbital precession can be detected as a Doppler modulation in the arrival times of the 1.24-sec X-ray pulsations. The precession geometry is examined, the test for precession is outlined, and a marginally significant indication of orbital precession in the Hz Her/Her X-1 system is obtained. Possible biases in the analysis are evaluated, and the spin-axis misalignment of HZ Her is estimated from the measured tilt of the orbit.

Deeter, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Batch Sequential Estimation with Non-Uniform Measurements and Non-Stationary Noise

Sequential estimation using the traditional discrete Kalman filter typically assumes the measurement time and state update time are coincident. This is often a poor assumption in realistic measurement scenarios where the data can be received from multiple sources at differing times. This paper develops the necessary algorithm adjustments needed for the Kalman filter to readily process measurement data that arrive at varying times and with non-stationary noise. The algorithm is applied to a relevant problem of orbit determination using one-way uplink radiometric tracking of a spacecraft (in the present case a Mars orbiter).

Seubert, Jill↗