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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Improved Regional Hydrological Model Performance Using State-Of-The-Science Data-Informed Soil Parameters

Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF-Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients ( r ), reduced biases, and increased Kling-Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well-established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS-adjusted WRF-Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF-Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO-informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured, r increases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre-calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and ZVS Operation of the Isolated Modular Multilevel DC–DC Converter With a Unified Trapezoidal Wave Modulation

Here, this article introduces a unified trapezoidal wave (UTW) modulation scheme for the isolated modular multilevel dc–dc (IM2dc) converter, which consolidates multiple existing modulation strategies for the IM2dc converter, including the quasi-square wave (QSW) modulation, trapezoidal wave modulation, and sinusoidal wave modulation, into a unified framework. Furthermore, this article introduces the harmonic state-space (HSS) equations to model the IM2dc converter based on the UTW modulation method. The HSS model operates in the frequency domain, enabling it to circumvent the complexities associated with time-domain analysis and seamlessly integrate with the UTW modulation. This article proceeds to analyze the real and reactive power transfer characteristics of the IM2dc converter, as well as the power factor, considering the influence of multiple modulation parameters. Subsequently, it delves into the examination of zero voltage switching (ZVS) conditions for the IM2dc converter based on the UTW modulation and the HSS model. The complete ZVS boundaries of the IM2dc converter, taking various voltage ratios into account, are derived. This article also illustrates the effects of including harmonic orders in the modeling process, modulation parameters, and internal harmonic ripples on the ZVS boundaries. Finally, experimental validation of the analyses is conducted on a down-scaled prototype.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Simulation of Cascading Outages Using an Energy Function-Embedded Quasi-Steady-State Model

Here, this paper proposed an energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model for efficient simulation of cascading outages on a power grid while addressing transient stability concerns. Compared to quasi-steady-state models, the proposed model incorporates short-term dynamic simulation and an energy function method to efficiently evaluate the transient stability of a power grid together with outage propagation without transient stability simulation. Cascading outage simulation using the proposed model conducts three steps for each disturbance such as a line outage. First, it performs time-domain simulation for a short term to obtain a post-disturbance trajectory. Second, along the trajectory, the system state with the local maximum potential energy is found and used as the initial point to search for a relevant unstable equilibrium by Newton's method. Third, the transient energy margin is estimated based on this unstable equilibrium to predict an out-of-step condition with generators. The proposed energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model is tested in terms of its accuracy and time performance on an NPCC 140-bus power system and compared to a quasi-steady-state model embedding transient stability simulation.

Guo, Zhenping [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning of a crystal plasticity flow rule from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations

Continuum-scale material deformation models, such as crystal plasticity (CP), can significantly enhance their predictive accuracy by incorporating input from lower-scale (i.e. mesoscale) models. The procedure to generate and extract the relevant information is however typically complex and ad hoc, involving decision and intervention by domain experts, leading to long development times. In this study, we develop a principled approach for calibration of continuum-scale models using lower scale information by representing a CP flow rule as a Gaussian process model. This representation allows for efficient parameter space exploration, guided by the uncertainty embedded in the model through a process known as Bayesian optimization (BO). We demonstrate a semi-autonomous BO loop which instantiates discrete dislocation dynamics simulations whose initial conditions are automatically chosen to optimize the uncertainty of a model CP flow rule. Our self-guided computational pipeline efficiently generated a dataset and corresponding model whose error, uncertainty, and physical feature sensitivities were validated with comparison to an independent dataset four times larger, demonstrating a valuable and efficient active learning implementation readily transferable to similar material systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient derivative computation for unsteady fatigue-constrained nonlinear aero-structural wind turbine blade optimization

Gradient-based optimization offers significant efficiency advantages for wind turbine blade design, but its application has often been limited by the cost and accuracy of finite-difference derivative calculations, especially when fatigue constraints are considered. In this work, we systematically compare and evaluate four differentiation techniques, namely algorithmic differentiation, implicit differentiation, sparsity exploitation, and parallelization, to determine their effectiveness in computing accurate gradients through time-domain aero-structural simulations. By integrating these techniques with unsteady nonlinear aerodynamic and structural models, we develop software designed for accurate gradient computation. We show that combining these techniques addresses memory and runtime challenges associated with long simulations required by design load cases. Specifically, the most effective combination reduces derivative computation wall time by over an order of magnitude compared to finite differencing while maintaining superior accuracy. We demonstrate this approach in a proof-of-concept aero-structural optimization of a wind turbine blade that improves the cost of energy by 12.78 %. This comparative study establishes a viable approach for fatigue-aware blade design that balances computational efficiency with modeling accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generalized Power Flow Model of an Extra High-Power Multi-Terminal HVdc Transmission Grid with Parallel-Connected and Voltage-Stacked Converters

To increase power transfer capacity of high-voltage direct current (HVdc) transmission, a new extra high-power HVdc architecture with multiple standard modular multilevel converters (MMCs) per substation has recently been introduced. This paper proposes a power flow model for a multi-terminal HVdc (MTdc) grid with this innovative substation architecture. The proposed MTdc model can be integrated seamlessly with existing ac-dc power flow algorithms with minimal modifications. The model is applicable to various MTdc grid types and topologies, different numbers of dc buses, dc lines, and MMCs per substation, along with diverse control parameters. In addition, it accurately captures both balanced and unbalanced operations of the MTdc grid. The proposed model is verified using a 5-terminal bipole MTdc grid that spans 4 areas in the Eastern Interconnection system of the USA. The numerical solutions obtained from unified and sequential ac-dc power flow algorithms under different operating conditions closely match the time-domain simulation results in PSCAD, validating the accuracy and versatility of the proposed MTdc power flow model.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep learning for time series forecasting: a survey of recent advances

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, such as finance, healthcare, transportation, and scientific computing. In recent years, deep learning has become a powerful tool for modeling complex temporal patterns and improving forecasting accuracy. This survey provides an overview of recent deep learning approaches for time series forecasting, involving various architectures including RNNs, CNNs, GNNs, transformers, large language models, MLP-based models, and diffusion models. We first identify key challenges in the field, such as temporal dependency, efficiency, and cross-variable dependency, which drive the development of forecasting techniques. Then, the general advantages and limitations of each architecture are discussed to contextualize their adaptation in time series forecasting. Furthermore, we highlight promising design trends like multi-scale modeling, decomposition, and frequency-domain techniques, which are shaping the future of the field. This paper serves as a compact reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand the current landscape and future trajectory of deep learning in time series forecasting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants (Final Technical Report)

This final report describes the methods and results of applying Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity (SSTDR) for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants for DE-EE0008169. The project created a new system for both detecting and locating electrical faults in photovoltaic systems. In this work, we address photovoltaic electric faults that are both common and costly. Based on interviews with photovoltaic power plant owners, operators, and maintainers, three types of faults are common and of significant interest: disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults. Disconnects can originate from many sources. They are often due to everyday events, such as lawnmowing (accidentally running over a cable), animals eating through the cables, or degradation that occurs over time due to corrosion or general degradation. Ground faults occur when the cables (for example, due to frayed insolation) connect to the ground, relaying current into the ground. These faults are particularly problematic since the ground faults are often intermittent. That is, ground faults commonly appear during rain storms due to a change in soil conductivity and then disappear when the rain ends. This makes the ground fault difficult to find because while current systems can detect the overall change in voltage and current associated with a ground fault, technicians are necessary to locate the fault. As a result, ground faults may disappear before the technician arrives at the power plant. Hence, locating and fixing ground faults often require multiple trips. We also study arc faults, which can result when nearby conductors create an arc of electrical current through the air. While less common, arc faults can be extremely dangerous. The energetic electrical arc can cause fires and destroy equipment, costing significant damage. Overall all three types of faults cost owners and operators money, either from the destruction of equipment or from technician time. Furthermore, while devices exist for detecting ground faults (ground fault circuit interrupters) and arc faults (arc fault circuit interrupter), these systems only search patterns of electrical current that correspond to each fault. This information cannot be used to locate the fault. In addition, these protection systems experience nuisance trips due to nearby electromagnetic interference, such as from a lawn mower or other motors that produce significant amounts of electromagnetic radiation. Hence, the overall goal of this project is to create an SSTDR tool that provides photovoltaic power plants with more reliable fault detection in addition to the localization of faults. SSTDR works by transmitting electrical signals into the photovoltaic string. Those signals reflect from impedance discontinuities (i.e., disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults). These faults are then detected by measuring the presence of a reflection at the SSTDR and can be located by identifying the location of that reflection in time. In addition, unlike current protection systems, these systems do not experience nuisance trips since their low amplitude, high frequency, and coded signal can by analyzed without interference from the regular operational voltage on the photovoltaic string.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Cellular Recurrent Network for Efficient Analysis of Time-Series Data With Spatial Information

Efficient processing of large-scale time series data is an intricate problem in machine learning. Conventional sensor signal processing pipelines with hand engineered feature extraction often involve huge computational cost with high dimensional data. Deep recurrent neural networks have shown promise in automated feature learning for improved time-series processing. However, generic deep recurrent models grow in scale and depth with increased complexity of the data. This is particularly challenging in presence of high dimensional data with temporal and spatial characteristics. Consequently, this work proposes a novel deep cellular recurrent neural network (DCRNN) architecture to efficiently process complex multi-dimensional time series data with spatial information. Here, the cellular recurrent architecture in the proposed model allows for location-aware synchronous processing of time series data from spatially distributed sensor signal sources. Extensive trainable parameter sharing due to cellularity in the proposed architecture ensures efficiency in the use of recurrent processing units with high-dimensional inputs. This study also investigates the versatility of the proposed DCRNN model for classification of multi-class time series data from different application domains. Consequently, the proposed DCRNN architecture is evaluated using two time-series datasets: a multichannel scalp EEG dataset for seizure detection, and a machine fault detection dataset obtained in-house. The results suggest that the proposed architecture achieves state-of-the-art performance while utilizing substantially less trainable parameters when compared to comparable methods in the literature.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and -IV

Abstract Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year, and surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time (t E) distribution. However, systematics in individual light curves as well as oversimplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and -IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the t E distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and the previous analyses overestimated the number of t E > 100 day events due to their oversimplistic model ignoring parallax effects. We use our fits to identify the hundreds filling a regime in the microlensing parameter space that are 50% pure of black holes. Finally, we have released the largest-ever catalog of Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimates for microlensing events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emerging anomaly detection techniques for electronic health records: A survey

Background Anomaly detection in electronic health records (EHRs) is a cornerstone of biomedical informatics, with direct implications for patient safety, clinical decision-making, and the prevention of healthcare fraud. Once guided primarily by simple rule-based methods, the field has advanced rapidly, driven by increased computing power, richer and more detailed health data, and the rise of machine learning and deep learning techniques. The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of modern approaches to detecting anomalies in EHRs, outlining their strengths, limitations, and relevance to key healthcare challenges. We review traditional statistical methods alongside newer ML- and DL-based strategies and hybrid models, with particular attention to how these techniques support transparency and build clinical trust. Methods This paper presents a thorough and critical survey through systematic review (PRISMA-based) of the latest anomaly detection strategies in time-sequence data domains within electronic health record systems. Results We explore a broad spectrum of methodologies, including statistical models, supervised and unsupervised learning approaches, hybrid frameworks, and state-of-the-art ML-based techniques that collectively advance the precision and scalability of detecting anomalies in complex clinical datasets. In addition to mapping current capabilities, we address the enduring challenges that hinder widespread implementation and provide a forward-looking perspective on the future of anomaly detection in the data-rich landscape of modern healthcare. Summary The advancement in AI-based approaches is reported along with the basic principles of the individual approaches and their applicability. The increased availability of high-quality data, advancements in DL approaches, and enhanced computation power are leading to more frequent adaptation of DL-based approaches. Emerging DL-based approaches that have been adapted in other domains or recently applied in the EHR domain are also discussed in detail. Although DL-based approaches can improve model predictions by incorporating comorbidities, their application is limited in low-frequency data domains (e.g., when the total available data remains in the single digits). Therefore, the user must carefully consider the application based on data availability.

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic simulations of temporally and spatially variable Fe cycling within a floodplain aquifer

This data package contains model input and output files for local and global sensitivity analysis (SA) of a reactive transport model simulating redox cycling within a floodplain aquifer. The reaction network is implemented in CrunchFlow and focuses on spatially and temporally heterogeneous Fe cycling, though it contains several other species and redox pathways (37 aqueous species and 7 minerals in total). The package contains data from 600 Monte Carlo simulations (for global SA) and 104 one-at-a-time simulations (for local SA). It includes all input files required to run the CrunchFlow model, as well as limited model output – .csv files containing time series of primary species concentrations at 21 grid cells within the domain. These time series files contain the following species: H+, CO32-, SO42-, Cl-, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Fe(II), Fe(III), HS-, CH3COO-, O2(aq), S(aq), and Br-.These data were used to demonstrate the application of a novel form of global SA, distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA) to a reactive transport model. The 2D model simulates the export of reduced species from pockets of fine-grained, organic-rich sediments embedded in a coarse sand aquifer. Stochastic simulations jointly varied 17 key model input parameters across several orders of magnitude, including the spatial variability of each parameter. DGSA on the model results reveal that the amplitude and variability of exported Fe(II) are most sensitive to the interaction between sand permeability and individual reaction rates. By contrast, the propagation of reducing conditions downgradient from the fine-grained lenses depends most heavily on the rate of dissolved organic carbon and sulfate release from the fines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems

The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.

Zhao, Xingang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Urban Representation on Simulation of Hurricane Rainfall

Abstract Taking the examples of Hurricane Florence (2018) over the Carolinas and Hurricane Harvey (2017) over the Texas Gulf Coast, the study attempts to understand the performance of slab, single‐layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM), and Building Environment Parameterization (BEP) in simulating hurricane rainfall using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model simulations showed that for an intense, large‐scale event such as a hurricane, the model quantitative precipitation forecast over the urban domain was sensitive to the model urban physics. The spatial and temporal verification using the modified Kling‐Gupta efficiency and Method for Object based Diagnostic and Evaluation in Time Domain suggests that UCM performance is superior to the BEP scheme. Additionally, using the BEP urban physics scheme over UCM for landfalling hurricane rainfall simulations has helped simulate heavy rainfall hotspots.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous single-shot rotation–vibration non-equilibrium thermometry using pure rotational fs/ps CARS coherence beating

Here, we report the development of a simple and sensitive two-beam hybrid femtosecond/picosecond pure rotational coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (fs/ps CARS) method to simultaneously measure the rotational and vibrational temperatures of diatomic molecules. Rotation–vibration non-equilibrium plays a key role in the chemistry and thermalization in low-temperature plasmas as well as thermal loading of hypersonic vehicles. This approach uses time-domain interferences between ground state and vibrationally excited N 2 molecules to intentionally induce coherence beating that leads to apparent non-Boltzmann distributions in the pure rotational spectra. These distortions enable simultaneous inference of both the rotational and vibrational temperatures. Coherence beating effects were observed in single-shot fs/ps CARS measurements of a 75 Torr N 2 DC glow discharge and were successfully modeled for rotational and vibrational temperature extraction. We show that this method can be more sensitive than a pure rotational fs/ps CARS approach using a spectrally narrow probe pulse. Lastly, we experimentally measured the beat frequencies via Fourier transform of the time-domain response and obtained excellent agreement with the model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-throughput nuclear resonance time domain interferometry using annular slits

Nuclear resonance time domain interferometry (NR-TDI) is used to study the slow dynamics of liquids (that do not require Mössbauer isotopes) at atomic and molecular length scales. Here the TDI method of using a stationary two-line magnetized 57 Fe foil as a source and a stationary single-line stainless steel foil analyzer is employed. The new technique of adding an annular slit in front of a single silicon avalanche photodiode detector enables a wide range of momentum transfers (1 to 100 nm -1 by varying the distance between the annular slits and sample) with a high count rate of up to 160 Hz with a Δ q resolution of ±1.7 nm -1 at q = 14 nm -1 . The sensitivity of this method in determining relaxation times is quantified and discussed. The Kohlrausch–Williams–Watts (KWW) model was used to extract relaxation times for glycerol. These relaxation times give insight into the dynamics of the electron density fluctuations of glycerol as a function of temperature and momentum transfers.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

SN 2018fif: The Explosion of a Large Red Supergiant Discovered in Its Infancy by the Zwicky Transient Facility

High-cadence transient surveys are able to capture supernovae closer to their first light than ever before. Applying analytical models to such early emission, we can constrain the progenitor stars' properties. Here, we present observations of SN 2018fif (ZTF 18abokyfk). The supernova was discovered close to first light and monitored by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. Early spectroscopic observations suggest that the progenitor of SN 2018fif was surrounded by relatively small amounts of circumstellar material compared to all previous cases. This particularity, coupled with the high-cadence multiple-band coverage, makes it a good candidate to investigate using shock-cooling models. We employ the SOPRANOS code, an implementation of the model by Sapir & Waxman and its extension to early times by Morag et al. Compared with previous implementations, SOPRANOS has the advantage of including a careful account of the limited temporal validity domain of the shock-cooling model as well as allowing usage of the entirety of the early UV data. We find that the progenitor of SN 2018fif was a large red supergiant with a radius of $R={744.0}_{-128.0}^{+183.0}\,{R}_{\odot }$ and an ejected mass of ${M}_{\mathrm{ej}}={9.3}_{-5.8}^{+0.4}\,{M}_{\odot }$. Our model also gives information on the explosion epoch, the progenitor's inner structure, the shock velocity, and the extinction. The distribution of radii is double-peaked, with smaller radii corresponding to lower values of the extinction, earlier recombination times, and a better match to the early UV data. If these correlations persist in future objects, denser spectroscopic monitoring constraining the time of recombination, as well as accurate UV observations (e.g., with ULTRASAT), will help break the extinction/radius degeneracy and independently determine both.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the accuracy of time-fraction and ductility exhaustion approaches for creep-fatigue damage prediction through feature-test validation

Determining creep-fatigue damage formation is critical for elevated temperature components integrity. This study evaluates creep-fatigue assessments with emphasis on differences between creep damage models. Evaluated are the time-fraction model and the classical and stress-modified ductility exhaustion creep damage models. This work extends the domain of stress-modified ductility exhaustion models by introducing and validating such formalism to Ni-based alloys. The fidelity of the assessments was benchmarked against uniaxial creep-fatigue and multiaxial feature tests of Alloy 617. For uniaxial specimens, best estimate predictions rank ductility exhaustion as the most accurate and precise and time-fraction as markedly conservative. For feature tests, ductility exhaustion predictions are within < 4.0 times difference, whereas time-fraction underpredicts life by factors of 7–14. The observations suggest ductility exhaustion models as alternative to time-fraction models in design codes for situations requiring characterization of the design margin. Further work in employing such models to assess other relevant phenomena (e.g., stress relaxation cracking) is discussed.

creep-fatigue↗