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DOE OSTI2025

Multi-objective surrogate-assisted calibration of CPFEM models using macroscopic response and in situ EBSD measurements of grain reorientation trajectories

Crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) models are widely used to simulate the deformation behaviour of polycrystalline materials, but their calibration is often limited by their high computational cost and the non-convexity of the optimisation landscape. Here, this study develops a multi-objective surrogate-assisted calibration workflow that couples a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) with an adaptively trained deep neural network (DNN) surrogate model to efficiently identify CPFEM parameters from experimental data. The workflow is demonstrated on three crystal plasticity (CP) formulations of increasing complexity — Voce hardening (VH), two-coefficient latent hardening (LH2), and six-coefficient latent hardening (LH6) — using in situ electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements of Alloy 617 under uniaxial tensile loading. The CPFEM models are calibrated against the experimentally observed stress–strain response and reorientation trajectories of eight grains, then validated against eight additional trajectories and overall texture evolution. Across the CP formulations, the macroscopic response was reproduced reliably, while differences emerged in the robustness and accuracy of the grain-scale predictions. Including grain reorientation trajectories in the multi-objective calibration improved texture evolution predictions and filtered out physically inconsistent parameter sets that can arise from calibrating against only the stress–strain data. The workflow also demonstrates good transferability of calibrated parameters from a low- to a high-fidelity microstructural model. These results provide practical guidance for integrating in situ microstructural data into CPFEM through efficient, repeatable, and physically meaningful multi-objective calibration.

Crystal plasticity finite element method↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Autoignition and preliminary heat release of gasoline surrogates and their blends with ethanol at engine-relevant conditions: Experiments and comprehensive kinetic modeling

This work utilizes a rapid compression machine (RCM) to experimentally quantify autoignition and preliminary heat release characteristics for blends of 0 to 30% ethanol by volume into two surrogates (FGF-LLNL and FGF-KAUST) that represent a full boiling range gasoline (FACE-F). Experimental conditions cover pressures from 15 to 100 bar, temperatures from 700 to 1000 K, and diluted/stoichiometric and undiluted/lean fuel loading conditions representative of boosted spark-ignition and advanced compression ignition engines, respectively. Direct comparison is made with previously reported results for FACE-F/E0–E30 blends. Here, a detailed gasoline surrogate chemistry model is also proposed, and chemical kinetic modeling is undertaken using the proposed model to generate chemical insights into the compositional effects and ethanol blending effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial intelligence driven laser parameter search: Inverse design of photonic surfaces using greedy surrogate-based optimization

Photonic surfaces designed with specific optical characteristics are becoming increasingly crucial for novel energy harvesting and storage systems. The design of these surfaces can be achieved by texturing materials using lasers. The optimal adjustment of laser fabrication parameters to achieve target surface optical properties is an open challenge. Thus, we develop a surrogate-based optimization approach. Our framework employs the Random Forest algorithm to model the forward relationship between the laser fabrication parameters and the resulting optical characteristics. During the optimization process, we use a greedy, prediction-based exploration strategy that iteratively selects batches of laser parameters to be used in experimentation by minimizing the predicted discrepancy between the surrogate model’s outputs and the user-defined target optical characteristics. This strategy allows for efficient identification of optimal fabrication parameters without the need to model the error landscape directly. We demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our approach on two synthetic benchmarks and two specific experimental applications of photonic surface inverse design targets. By calculating the average performance of our algorithm compared to other state of the art optimization methods, we show that our algorithm performs, on average, twice as well across all benchmarks. Additionally, a warm starting inverse design technique for changed target optical characteristics enhances the performance of the introduced approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity analysis, surrogate modeling, and optimization of pebble-bed reactors considering normal and accident conditions

This research provides a valuable tool that streamlines the optimization process while significantly increasing its accuracy. This study creates a robust framework for reactor design optimization by incorporating comprehensive modeling using the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). BlueCRAB is the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's code suite for non-light water reactor analysis and includes the Griffin, Pronghorn, and Bison applications. This not only improves the efficiency of the optimization process but also enhances the reliability of the results. Such a tool is essential for advancing the state-of-the-art in pebble-bed reactor technology and is critical for achieving the goals of Generation IV reactors, which aim for safe, sustainable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions. This work presents and applies this workflow on pebble-bed reactors while considering both normal and off-normal conditions. A representative gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor at equilibrium core conditions serves as the nominal design specification for normal operation and is based on previous research. The depressurized loss-of-forced-cooling accident is deployed for off-normal conditions in this work. After defining design-related parameters and quantities of interest regarding reactor safety and performance, this multiphysics model is sampled using the MOOSE stochastic tools module. The result is a comprehensive dataset of configurations, enabling sensitivity analysis and the generation of surrogate models. Subsequently, the dataset and surrogate models are employed in two optimization studies aimed at maximizing fuel utilization and economic profit while adhering to safety and operational constraints. Performing the optimization process with fuel utilization as the metric leads to an improvement of approximately 10%, compared to engineering-judgment-based nominal conditions. The optimization on economic profit leads to an estimated increase of ~300 million USD over the lifetime of the reactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experimental and kinetic modeling study of tetralin: A naphtheno-aromatic fuel for gasoline, jet and diesel surrogates

Distillate fuels contain significant proportions of naphtheno-aromatic components and tetralin is a suitable surrogate component to represent this molecular moiety. The presence of aromatic and naphthyl rings makes kinetic modeling of tetralin very challenging. Primary radicals formed during the oxidation of tetralin can be aryl, benzylic or paraffinic in nature. Using available information on reaction paths and rate constants of naphthenes and alkyl-aromatics, in this study a kinetic model of tetralin has been developed with emphasis on low-temperature chemistry and high-pressure conditions. Due to the lack of high-level quantum chemical calculations on reaction pathways of tetralin, analogous rates from ab-initio studies on benzylic and paraffinic radicals have been adopted here. Some modifications to the reaction rate rules are incorporated to account for the unique characteristics of tetralin's molecular structure. Important reaction channels have been identified using reaction path and brute force sensitivity analyses. In order to investigate the model performance at low temperatures, new experiments are carried out in a rapid compression machine on blends of tetralin and 3-methylpentane. Blending of low-reactivity tetralin with a high-reactivity alkane allowed the investigation of tetralin ignition at very low temperatures (665 – 856 K). The kinetic model developed in the current study is found to predict the current experiments and literature data adequately. The new model will aid in high-fidelity surrogate predictions at engine-relevant conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving E3SM Land Model Photosynthesis Parameterization via Satellite SIF, Machine Learning, and Surrogate Modeling

The parameterization of key photosynthesis parameters is one of the key uncertain sources in modeling ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers a good proxy for GPP since it marks the actual process of photosynthesis; while machine learning (ML) provides a robust approach to model the GPP-SIF relationship. Here, we trained the boosted regressing tree (BRT) and the Random Forest ML models with Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite SIF data and in situ GPP observations from 49 eddy covariance towers. These trained ML GPP-SIF models were fed into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to generate ELM-simulated global SIF estimates, which were then benchmarked against satellite SIF observations with a surrogate modeling approach. Our results indicated good modeling performance of the ML-based GPP-SIF relationship. The ELM model when fed with the ML GPP-SIF models also can well predict the spatial-temporal variations in SIF. We also found high model accuracy for the surrogate modeling. Model parameter sensitivity analysis suggested that the fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (flnr) is the most sensitive parameter to the SIF; other sensitive parameters include the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbbopt) and the vcmax entropy (vcmaxse). The posterior uncertainty in simulated GPP was greatly reduced after benchmarking, and the model produced improved spatial patterns of mean GPP relative to FLUXCOM GPP. Our integrated approach provides a new avenue for improving land models and using remote-sensing SIF, which can be further improved in the future with more ground- and satellite-based observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A linear surrogate for optimising functions of an orthogonal matrix with applications in wave function theory

The technique of surrogate optimisation is to use a simpler function to approximate a complex function that is time-consuming to evaluate. Here we show that the maximum of a special type of surrogate function f(U)=Tr(AU),UϵO(n) is at A T (AA T ) 1/2 , and that there is one and only one local maximum both in SO(n) and O(n)–SO(n). This function f(U) has been found to be useful in various aspects of electronic structure theory, including proving the Carlson-Keller theorem, and localising orbitals. As one other example, we apply it here to optimise the ground state of molecules using the Generalised Valence Bond wavefunction.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A 3D helical filament surrogate model for 3D tokamak equilibria

A novel approach for efficient representation of three-dimensional (3D) tokamak equilibria is investigated, where a set of helical current filaments occupying the plasma region are employed to resolve deviations from the two-dimensional (2D) axi-symmetric state. A discrete set of 3D filaments, located at rational surfaces for a given toroidal mode number n and following the 2D equilibrium field lines (thus forming closed current loops), are found to provide a surrogate model of 3D equilibria with reasonable accuracy. Specifically, application of the filament model to 3D perturbed equilibria, due to the resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) in DIII-D and MAST-U discharges, reveals that (1) a single helical filament per rational surface is sufficient; (2) 21 such helical filaments are capable of representing the n = 2 3D response field in MAST-U with less than 10% relative error as compared to that computed by a full magnetohydrodynamic code; (3) optimizing currents (both amplitude and phase) flowing in 3D filaments with fixed geometry, the highest accuracy fitting is found to depend on the characteristics of the 3D equilibria such as the coil current phasing of the RMP coils in our case studies. Here, whis filament approach is also applicable for generating surrogate models of other type of 3D tokamak equilibria, including those during the initial phase of the plasma disruption.

MARS-F↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deployment of Gaussian Surrogate Model for Ad-Hoc Adjustments to Elastic Scattering Angular Distributions [Slides]

This presentation is on the deployment of gaussian surrogate model for ad-hoc adjustments to elastic scattering angular distributions. Discussed throughout the presentation is motivation for this lecture. Specifically, the gaussian surrogate models, validation of method with Pb-208, and the application on Be-9 are highlighted. The presentation concludes with a summary.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Combustion of petroleum-based transportation fuels and their blends with biofuels: a new approach for developing surrogates and understanding the effects of blending

Accurate and versatile reaction mechanisms are necessary to simulate combustion of transportation fuels blended with biofuels for improving fuel efficiency, reducing fuel consumption and mitigating the formation and emissions of combustion products harmful to the atmosphere. This project involved a combined effort of simulation and experimentation of liquid fuel burning using a combustion configuration amenable to numerical modeling with a level of detail not previously achieved for blends of biofuels with gasoline certification and surrogate fuels. The configuration of an isolated droplet burning under conditions where gas transport arises solely from fuel evaporation was selected as the platform for experiments and numerical modeling. The spherical symmetry and one-dimensional gas transport that results enabled simulating the droplet burning process with an precedented level of detail. Processes associated with unsteady gas and liquid transport, formation of particulate and gaseous products, radiation, multicomponent phase equilibrium at the droplet surface and moving boundary effects from droplet evaporation, were incorporated in a single numerical framework. The numerical model was based on the open source code OPENSmoke++ (OS) adapted to incorporate the effects noted above. In addition to simulation, an experimental design was developed for the isolated droplet configuration to acquire the data needed for validating the numerical model. Several broad accomplishments of the project were the following: demonstrating generally excellent agreement between measured and simulated combustion parameters for the fuel blends examined that included mixtures of heptane and isobutanol as a model system, and surrogates comprised of up to seven miscible components mixed with ethanol or isobutanol as representative biofuel additives; using a new approach to validate reaction mechanisms of biofuel blends which incorporated fuel evaporation into the process along with developing an experimental design for acquiring data to compare with simulations; and showing that a wealth of information could be obtained on the combustion physics of biofuels from experiments requiring volumes on the order of only nanoliters at a time thus opening the way to evaluating biofuels synthesized by new processes early in development.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Torque Teno Sus Virus 1: A Potential Surrogate Pathogen to Study Pig-Transmitted Transboundary Animal Diseases

Understanding the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of transboundary animal diseases (TADs) among wild pigs (Sus scrofa) will aid in preventing the introduction or containment of TADs among wild populations. Given the challenges associated with studying TADs in free-ranging populations, a surrogate pathogen system may predict how pathogens may circulate and be maintained within wild free-ranging swine populations, how they may spill over into domestic populations, and how management actions may impact transmission. We assessed the suitability of Torque teno sus virus 1 (TTSuV1) to serve as a surrogate pathogen for molecular epidemiological studies in wild pigs by investigating the prevalence, persistence, correlation with host health status and genetic variability at two study areas: Archbold’s Buck Island Ranch in Florida and Savannah River Site in South Carolina. We then conducted a molecular epidemiological case study within Archbold’s Buck Island Ranch site to determine how analysis of this pathogen could inform transmission dynamics of a directly transmitted virus. Prevalence was high in both study areas (40%, n = 190), and phylogenetic analyses revealed high levels of genetic variability within and between study areas. Our case study showed that pairwise host relatedness and geographic distance were highly correlated to pairwise viral genetic similarity. Molecular epidemiological analyses revealed a distinct pattern of direct transmission from pig to pig occurring within and between family groups. Our results suggest that TTSuV1 is highly suitable for molecular epidemiological analyses and will be useful for future studies of transmission dynamics in wild free-ranging pigs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Cyclo-Pentane Impurities on the Autoignition Reactivity and Properties of a Gasoline Surrogate Fuel

Surrogate fuels that reproduce the characteristics of full-boiling range fuels are key tools to enable numerical simulations of fuel-related processes and ensure reproducibility of experiments by eliminating batch-to-batch variability. Within the PACE initiative, a surrogate fuel for regular-grade E10 (10%vol ethanol) gasoline representative of a U.S. market gasoline, termed PACE-20, was developed and adopted as baseline fuel for the consortium. Although extensive testing demonstrated that PACE-20 replicates the properties and combustion behavior of the full-boiling range gasoline, several concerns arose regarding the purity level required for the species that compose PACE-20. This is particularly important for cyclo-pentane, since commercial-grade cyclo-pentane typically shows 60%–85% purity. Here, in the present work, the effects of the purity level of cyclo-pentane on the properties and combustion characteristics of PACE-20 were studied. Chemical kinetic simulations were performed to predict the effects of cyclo-pentane impurities on the properties, octane rating, and autoignition reactivity under homogeneous charge compression-ignition conditions of PACE-20. From the numerical results, cyclo-pentane with 85% purity or higher is required to reasonably match both the research octane number and motor octane number of the target gasoline. Finally, homogeneous charge compression-ignition engine simulations show that impurities have only a modest effect on reactivity at naturally aspirated conditions, but cyclo-pentane purity is critical to properly replicate the pressure dependency of the reactivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

ViBRANT Applied as a Closed Loop Flux and Thermal Surrogate

Surrogate testing platforms provide a means to develop a target aspect of a larger system. Some systems target single aspects while others are more wholistic. ViBRANT (Visual Benign Reactor as Analog for Nuclear Testing) aims to be a wholistic system by representing the primary reactor behaviors through an accessible LED driven reactor core, photodiodes, thermocouples, and high-performance software interfaces being developed to the standards required for actual microreactor deployment such as MARVEL. With the ability to drive control drums enabled with full reactor capability (e.g. speed/angle/torque capability/limits for operation and clutch/spring scram capability), drive ViBRANT’s high fidelity 36 pin hexagon core to represent phenomena via LEDs, and capture the analog response of distributed photodiodes/thermocouples, this paper will show the system’s ability to operate in a closed-loop fashion and do well at matching reactor power/temperature distribution in an accessible reactor surrogate environment.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Storage Tanks in Integrated Energy Systems

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification are essential steps for enhancing the accuracy of computational models by identifying and mitigating uncertainties. This study focuses on these steps for the Thermal Energy Delivery System at Idaho National Laboratory, specifically targeting the thermocline tank. Using a Modelica/Dymola simulation model, the study perturbed various design parameters and boundary conditions, including shape factor, porosity, outlet temperature, inlet mass flow rate, and system pressure, to predict and quantify uncertainty in the tank’s ax- ial temperature. A dataset of over 1,000 simulations was generated, and surrogate models were developed using the pyMAISE (Michigan Artificial Intelligence Standard Environment) library, which is an Automatic Machine Learning library for nuclear engineering applications. The optimal model, a feedforward neural network with two hidden layers, achieved an R2 score above 0.99 and a mean absolute error below 1 Kelvin. Sensitivity analyses using Sobol indices and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing methods on this surrogate model revealed that the inlet mass flow rate at initial timestamps and porosity significantly impacts predicted temperatures across all sensors and time steps.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intelligent Surrogate Model Development: Boosting Computational Efficiency for Autonomous Control of Advanced Reactors

Advanced reactors promise enhanced safety, greater efficiency, and waste reductions. To fully realize these benefits, it is crucial to address the need for autonomous or semi-autonomous control systems that require fewer operators. This research primarily supports the MARVEL autonomous control system, which requires real-time operation. However, the current RELAP5 reactor thermal hydraulic transient simulation is excessively time-consuming. Therefore, this study aims to leverage deep learning techniques to develop a surrogate model, providing a more efficient and accurate alternative for real-time performance. The model was trained using a combination of one-timestep prediction and scheduled sampling. It was then used for recursive prediction of the reactor state. This developed surrogate model significantly improves computational efficiency, achieving a 12 times acceleration.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗