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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

ClimGen: Learning the Forcing-Response Relationship in Climate System

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is emerging as a potential geoengineering strategy to address the anthropogenic impact on climate, but its effective implementation requires an iterative and large ensemble of highly accurate and efficient climate projections. Traditional climate projections rely on executing computationally demanding and time-consuming numerical climate models. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) aim to enhance these approaches by emulating traditional methods. In this work, we propose a novel framework for directly learning the relationship between solar radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding surface temperature response. To evaluate the feasibility of this direct ML-based projection, we developed a dataset using an intermediate complexity model, incorporating a comprehensive suite of different forcing patterns and evaluation metrics to rigorously assess the ML model’s performance. We introduce a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (cDDPM) for this task, which demonstrates encouraging skill in representing climate statistics under previously unseen forcing patterns. This approach provides a promising pathway for direct climate projections by accurately learning the forcing-response relationship, with a wide range of applications in impact mitigation, emissions policy design, and SRM strategies.

Chen, Tse-Chun [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)] (ORCID:↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation water globally, with this role likely to grow as water demands and surface water variability increase. A better understanding of the future role of groundwater in meeting sectoral demands requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation of its cost and availability. Yet substantial gaps remain in our knowledge and modeling capabilities related to groundwater availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, and associated extraction costs, which are essential for large-scale analyses of integrated human–water system scenarios, particularly at the global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, a physics-based groundwater extraction and cost accounting model that operates at sub-annual temporal and at the coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution with global coverage. The model produces location-specific groundwater supply–cost curves that provide the levelized cost to access different quantities of available groundwater. The inputs to Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets of permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth to water table, recharge, and hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts for well capital and maintenance costs, as well as the energy costs required to lift water to the surface. The model employs a Theis-based scheme coupled with an amortization-based cost accounting formulation to simulate groundwater extraction and quantify the cost of groundwater pumping. The result is a spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based model that produces groundwater supply–cost curves. We show examples of these supply–cost curves and the insights that can be derived from them across a set of scenarios designed to explore model outcomes. The supply–cost curves produced by the model show that most (90 %) nonrenewable groundwater in storage globally is extractable at costs lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half of the volume remains extractable at under USD 0.108 m−3. The global unit cost is estimated to range from a minimum of USD 0.004 m−3 to a maximum of USD 3.971 m−3. We also demonstrate and discuss examples of how these cost curves could be used by linking Superwell's outputs with other models to explore coupled human–environmental system challenges, such as water resources planning and management, or broader analyses of multisectoral feedbacks.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Density functional theory-based surrogate kinetic models for heterogeneous reactions of hydrocarbon intermediates on silicon carbide

The increasing demand for high-performance materials in advanced technologies highlights the importance of achieving a fundamental understanding and potential control of silicon carbide (SiC) deposition processes. However, existing models often lack sufficient theoretical detail, relying heavily on empirical data and offering limited predictive capability. In particular, the complex surface chemistry governing SiC growth remains poorly understood. This study addresses these challenges by employing density functional theory (DFT) to investigate key heterogeneous reactions involving hydrocarbon intermediates on SiC surfaces, including dehydrogenation, hydrogenation, and carbon deposition. Transition state searches were conducted to identify reaction pathways and energy barriers. While first-principles calculations offer high accuracy, they are computationally intensive. To extend the utility of these first-principles results, vibrational analyses were performed using phonon-based statistical thermochemistry to compute temperature-dependent reaction rates which were used to develop Arrhenius-type surrogate kinetic models. Furthermore, the resulting framework provides a more rigorous, physically grounded basis for integrating atomistic insights into continuum-scale modeling, ultimately enabling improved prediction and optimization of SiC film growth in high-performance material systems.

Density Functional Theory↗
DOE OSTI2025

A conserved chaperone protein is required for the formation of a noncanonical type VI secretion system spike tip complex

Type VI secretion systems (T6SSs) are dynamic protein nanomachines found in Gram-negative bacteria that deliver toxic effector proteins into target cells in a contact-dependent manner. Prior to secretion, many T6SS effector proteins require chaperones and/or accessory proteins for proper loading onto the structural components of the T6SS apparatus. However, despite their established importance, the precise molecular function of several T6SS accessory protein families remains unclear. In this study, we set out to characterize the DUF2169 family of T6SS accessory proteins. Using gene co-occurrence analyses, we find that DUF2169-encoding genes strictly co-occur with genes encoding T6SS spike complexes formed by valine-glycine repeat protein G (VgrG) and DUF4150 domains. Although structurally similar to Pro-Ala-Ala-Arg (PAAR) domains, “PAAR-like” DUF4150 domains lack PAAR motifs and instead contain a conserved PIPY motif, leading us to designate them PIPY domains. Next, we present both genetic and biochemical evidence that PIPY domains require a cognate DUF2169 protein to form a functional T6SS spike complex with VgrG. This contrasts with canonical PAAR proteins, which bind VgrG on their own to form functional spike complexes. By solving the first crystal structure of a DUF2169 protein, we show that this T6SS accessory protein adopts a novel protein fold. Furthermore, biophysical and structural modeling data suggest that DUF2169 contains a dynamic loop that physically interacts with a hydrophobic patch on the surface of its cognate PIPY domain. Based on these findings, we propose a model whereby DUF2169 proteins function as molecular chaperones that maintain VgrG–PIPY spike complexes in a secretion-competent state prior to their export by the T6SS apparatus.

DUF2169↗
DOE OSTI2024

A windowed mean trajectory approximation for condensed phase dynamics

We propose a trajectory-based quasi-classical method for approximating dynamics in condensed phase systems. Building upon the previously developed optimized mean trajectory approximation that has been used to compute linear and nonlinear spectra, we borrow some ideas from filtering trajectory methods to obtain a novel semiclassical method for the dynamical propagation of density matrices. This new approximation is tested rigorously against standard multistate electronic models, spin-boson models, and models of the Fenna–Matthews–Olson complex. For dissipative systems, the current method is significantly better or as good as many other semiclassical methods available, especially at low temperatures and for off-diagonal density matrix elements, whereas for scattering models, the current method bears similar limitations as mean-field propagation schemes. All results are tested against the numerically exact hierarchical equations of motion method. In conclusion, the new method shows excellent agreement across various parameter regimes with numerically exact results, highlighting the robustness and accuracy of our approach.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate Free Energies for Complex Condensed-Phase Reactions Using an Artificial Neural Network Corrected DFTB/MM Methodology

Semiempirical methods like density functional tight-binding (DFTB) allow extensive phase space sampling, making it possible to generate free energy surfaces of complex reactions in condensed-phase environments. Such a high efficiency often comes at the cost of reduced accuracy, which may be improved by developing a specific reaction parametrization (SRP) for the particular molecular system. Thiol–disulfide exchange is a nucleophilic substitution reaction that occurs in a large class of proteins. Its proper description requires a high-level ab initio method, while DFT-GAA and hybrid functionals were shown to be inadequate, and so is DFTB due to its DFT-GGA descent. We develop an SRP for thiol–disulfide exchange based on an artificial neural network (ANN) implementation in the DFTB+ software and compare its performance to that of a standard SRP approach applied to DFTB. Furthermore, as an application, we use both new DFTB-SRP as components of a QM/MM scheme to investigate thiol–disulfide exchange in two molecular complexes: a solvated model system and a blood protein. Demonstrating the strengths of the methodology, highly accurate free energy surfaces are generated at a low cost, as the augmentation of DFTB with an ANN only adds a small computational overhead.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Structural Basis for Inhibition of the Complement Initiator Protease C1r by Lyme Disease Spirochetes

Abstract Complement evasion is a hallmark of extracellular microbial pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease. Lyme disease spirochetes express nearly a dozen outer surface lipoproteins that bind complement components and interfere with their native activities. Among these, BBK32 is unique in its selective inhibition of the classical pathway. BBK32 blocks activation of this pathway by selectively binding and inhibiting the C1r serine protease of the first component of complement, C1. To understand the structural basis for BBK32-mediated C1r inhibition, we performed crystallography and size-exclusion chromatography–coupled small angle X-ray scattering experiments, which revealed a molecular model of BBK32-C in complex with activated human C1r. Structure-guided site-directed mutagenesis was combined with surface plasmon resonance binding experiments and assays of complement function to validate the predicted molecular interface. Analysis of the structures shows that BBK32 inhibits activated forms of C1r by occluding substrate interaction subsites (i.e., S1 and S1’) and reveals a surprising role for C1r B loop–interacting residues for full inhibitory activity of BBK32. The studies reported in this article provide for the first time (to our knowledge) a structural basis for classical pathway–specific inhibition by a human pathogen.

Garrigues, Ryan J. (ORCID:0000000259233250)↗
DOE OSTI2021

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Importance of Spatially Continuous Urban Surface Properties in Urban‐Resolving Earth System Modeling

Accurate representation of urban properties and processes at higher resolutions in global modeling systems is essential for advancing our ability to capture the complexities of urban systems and informing effective resilience strategies. However, the prescription of coarse global-scale urban properties in most state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) is limiting their potential for capturing urban signals as they advance toward kilometer-scale simulation capabilities. To bridge this gap in inadequate urban property representation and to advance urban-resolving Earth system modeling, this work integrates the newly-developed global 1 km-resolution facet-level urban surface property data set, U-Surf, into the land component of Community Earth System Model (CESM)—Community Terrestrial System Model (CTSM). The land-only CTSM simulations are validated against satellite measurements, ground-based urban weather stations, flux tower observations, and reanalysis data. Results demonstrate that the enhanced urban properties allow improved simulations of urban meteorology and surface energy fluxes compared to the default coarse-resolution categorical urban canopy parameters. Spatial scaling analysis reveals regime-dependent information loss during resolution aggregation, as well as substantial scale-dependent variations in urban surface energy flux representation. Furthermore, these findings have critical implications for coupled Earth system modeling when including the effect of land-atmosphere interaction. This work establishes a foundation for future urban-resolving kilometer-scale ESM development, which will enable systematic intra- and inter-city comparisons that inform urban adaptation strategies across diverse global urban environments.

Cheng, Yifan [University of Illinois Urbana-Champa↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights Into the Aerodynamic Versus Radiometric Surface Temperature Debate in Thermal-Based Evaporation Modeling

Global evaporation monitoring from Earth observation thermal infrared satellite missions is historically challenged due to the unavailability of any direct measurements of aerodynamic temperature. State-of-the-art one-source evaporation models use remotely sensed radiometric surface temperature as a substitute for the aerodynamic temperature and apply empirical corrections to accommodate for their inequality. This introduces substantial uncertainty in operational drought mapping over complex landscapes. By employing a non-parametric model, we show that evaporation can be directly retrieved from thermal satellite data without the need of any empirical correction. Independent evaluation of evaporation in a broad spectrum of biome and aridity yielded statistically significant results when compared with eddy covariance observations. While our simplified model provides a new perspective to advance spatio-temporal evaporation mapping from any thermal remote sensing mission, the direct retrieval of aerodynamic temperature also generates the highly required insight on the critical role of biophysical interactions in global evaporation research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uptake of Pb and the Formation of Mixed (Ba,Pb)SO 4 Monolayers on Barite During Cyclic Exposure to Lead-Containing Sulfuric Acid

Barite (BaSO 4 ) is a common additive in lead-acid batteries, where it acts as a nucleating agent to promote the reversible formation and dissolution of PbSO 4 during battery cycling. However, little is known about the molecular-scale mechanisms the nucleation and cyclic evolution of PbSO 4 over a battery’s lifetime. In this study, we explore the responses of a barite (001) surface to cycles of high and low lead concentrations in the presence of 100 mM sulfuric acid using in-situ atomic force microscopy and high-resolution X-ray reflectivity. Here we find that PbSO 4 epitaxial films readily nucleate on the barite surface, even from solutions that are undersaturated relative to bulk PbSO 4 . Despite this, barite (001) proves to be an ineffective nucleator of bulk PbSO 4 , as multilayer growth is suppressed even in highly supersaturated solutions. Instead, we find evidence that Pb 2+ ions can directly exchange with Ba 2+ to create mixed (Ba,Pb)SO 4 surfaces. These chemically mixed surfaces do not host PbSO4 monolayers as readily as pristine barite, and the original reactivity is not regained until a fresh surface is reestablished by aggressive etching. Our results can be partly explained by traditional models of Stranski-Krastanov (S-K) growth, in which monolayer films are stabilized by a reduction in surface energy, but multilayer growth is inhibited by epitaxial strain. Complementary density functional theory calculations confirmed the basic energetic-terms of traditional S-K models, but also showed evidence form more complex, thickness-dependent, energetics than would be predicted from the S-K models. The experimental results can be better understood by extending the S-K model to consider the formation of mixed surfaces and films, which can have reduced strain and interfacial energies relative to pure films, while also being stabilized by entropy of mixing. These insights into non-stoichiometric heteroepitaxy will enable better predictions of how barite affects PbSO 4 nucleation in battery environments.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Complex Dependence of Calcite Crack Kinetics on Salinity: The Role of DLVO and Hydration Forces

Abstract Subcritical crack growth (SCG) plays an important role in many geological processes such as delayed earth rupture and rock weathering. The complex dependency of SCG on the in‐crack fluid chemistry, however, is still poorly understood. In this study, we utilize the newly developed surface force‐based fracture theory (SFFT) to elucidate the relative contributions of surface forces and solute transport to the crack growth kinetics of calcite in NaCl solutions. Expanding on Barenblatt's cohesive crack model, SFFT introduces an effective stress intensity at the crack tip that encompasses all the relevant intermolecular forces across the crack in addition to the external far‐field stresses. The nonlinear system of equations portraying the crack opening profile, the solute distribution in a propagating crack, and the crack growth velocity are numerically solved via an implicit scheme. After carefully calibrating the model for calcite‐water systems, the SFFT is used to predict the SCG response of calcite at different NaCl concentrations, based on various hypotheses. These predictions are then compared to existing SCG data from the literature. We demonstrate that the experimentally observed variation of SCG rate with NaCl concentration cannot be explained solely by DLVO forces (electrostatic and Van der Waals interactions). This can be remediated by introducing an exponentially decaying hydration force with a nonlinear, nonmonotonic dependence on NaCl concentration. Furthermore, we demonstrate that accounting for both diffusive and advective transport of ions is important in explaining the absence of a stage‐II SCG response for calcite in electrolyte solutions. Plain Language Summary Subcritical crack growth (SCG) refers to the slow propagation of cracks in materials under a stress below the threshold for catastrophic failure. SCG is a key process in many geological events, for example, delayed earth ruptures and rock weathering. New initiatives such as underground CO 2 and H 2 storage in carbonate reservoirs further call for better understanding of SCG in carbonate minerals subjected to varying fluid chemistry. This study examines the SCG of calcite, a key mineral found in carbonate rocks, intergranular cement in sandstones, and filling material in mineral veins and faults, determining their deformation and strength. A mathematical model is developed to describe how the crack opens and propagates, how solutes (like salts) distribute within the crack, and how the crack surfaces interact with each other. We used the model to predict calcite SCG in water at different salt concentrations and compared it with experimental data. Our results revealed that the hydration force is the dominating factor in determining the complex, non‐linear dependency of SCG on salinity. We also found that both the movement of ions by diffusion and by bulk water flow are crucial for explaining the SCG rates, especially when the cracks grow quickly. Key Points Surface Force‐Based Fracture Theory predicts the complex subcritical crack growth patterns of calcite crystals immersed in NaCl solutions Results highlight the dominant role of hydration forces in altering the fracture behavior of calcite compared to VdW and electric double‐layer forces Advective solute transport explains the absence of stages‐II and ‐III subcritical crack growth responses in solid‐liquid systems

DLVO↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dissociative electron attachment to 5-bromo-uracil: non-adiabatic dynamics on complex-valued potential energy surfaces

Electron induced dissociation reactions are relevant to many fields, ranging from prebiotic chemistry to cancer treatments. However, the simulation of dissociation electron attachment (DEA) dynamics is very challenging because the auto-ionization widths of the transient negative ions must be accounted for. We propose an adaptation of the ab initio multiple spawning (AIMS) method for complex-valued potential energy surfaces, along the lines of recent developments based on surface hopping dynamics. Our approach combines models for the energy dependence of the auto-ionization widths, obtained from scattering calculations, with survival probabilities computed for the trajectory basis functions employed in the AIMS dynamics. The method is applied to simulate the DEA dynamics of 5-bromouracil in full dimensionality, i.e., taking all the vibrational modes into consideration. The propagation starts on the $π_{2}^{*}$ resonance state and describes the formation of Br - anions mediated by non-adiabatic couplings. The potential energies, gradients and non-adiabatic couplings were computed with the fractional-occupancy molecular orbital complete-active-space configuration-interaction method, and the calculated DEA cross section are consistent with the observed DEA intensities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prairie State Generating Company Static and Dynamic Modeling

A reservoir modeling study was conducted to assess the feasibility of storing 162.5 million tonnes (8.125 million tonnes annually) of industrially sourced carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the St. Peter – Everton and Knox storage complexes at the Prairie State Generating Company’s (PSGC) site near Marissa, Washington County, Illinois (PSGC site). Two separate models were constructed for the St. Peter – Everton and the Knox storage complexes. The St. Peter and Everton sandstones are the target storage units for the St. Peter – Everton storage complex. The Knox Group formations are the target storage units for the Knox storage complex. The Maquoketa Shale is the primary confining unit for both storage complexes. The static reservoir models used as input to the dynamic reservoir models of the storage complexes were developed from interpretations of logs (e.g., gamma ray, resistivity, porosity, photoelectric, and sonic), structure surfaces using data from 36 wells, thickness maps, well test data, seismic data, and permeability data in PetrelTM.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Substitution Models of Protein Evolution with Selection on Enzymatic Activity

Abstract Substitution models of evolution are necessary for diverse evolutionary analyses including phylogenetic tree and ancestral sequence reconstructions. At the protein level, empirical substitution models are traditionally used due to their simplicity, but they ignore the variability of substitution patterns among protein sites. Next, in order to improve the realism of the modeling of protein evolution, a series of structurally constrained substitution models were presented, but still they usually ignore constraints on the protein activity. Here, we present a substitution model of protein evolution with selection on both protein structure and enzymatic activity, and that can be applied to phylogenetics. In particular, the model considers the binding affinity of the enzyme–substrate complex as well as structural constraints that include the flexibility of structural flaps, hydrogen bonds, amino acids backbone radius of gyration, and solvent-accessible surface area that are quantified through molecular dynamics simulations. We applied the model to the HIV-1 protease and evaluated it by phylogenetic likelihood in comparison with the best-fitting empirical substitution model and a structurally constrained substitution model that ignores the enzymatic activity. We found that accounting for selection on the protein activity improves the fitting of the modeled functional regions with the real observations, especially in data with high molecular identity, which recommends considering constraints on the protein activity in the development of substitution models of evolution.

Ferreiro, David↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Rapid Calculation of Binding Affinities for Antigen and Antibody Design and Affinity Maturation Simulations

The accurate and efficient calculation of protein-protein binding affinities is an essential component in antibody and antigen design and optimization, and in computer modeling of antibody affinity maturation. Such calculations remain challenging despite advances in computer hardware and algorithms, primarily because proteins are flexible molecules, and thus, require explicit or implicit incorporation of multiple conformational states into the computational procedure. The astronomical size of the amino acid sequence space further compounds the challenge by requiring predictions to be computed within a short time so that many sequence variants can be tested. In this study, we compare three classes of methods for antibody/antigen (Ab/Ag) binding affinity calculations: (i) a method that relies on the physical separation of the Ab/Ag complex in equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, (ii) a collection of 18 scoring functions that act on an ensemble of structures created using homology modeling software, and (iii) methods based on the molecular mechanics-generalized Born surface area (MM-GBSA) energy decomposition, in which the individual contributions of the energy terms are scaled to optimize agreement with the experiment. When applied to a set of 49 antibody mutations in two Ab/HIV gp120 complexes, all of the methods are found to have modest accuracy, with the highest Pearson correlations reaching about 0.6. In particular, the most computationally intensive method, i.e., MD simulation, did not outperform several scoring functions. The optimized energy decomposition methods provided marginally higher accuracy, but at the expense of requiring experimental data for parametrization. Within each method class, we examined the effect of the number of independent computational replicates, i.e., modeled structures or reinitialized MD simulations, on the prediction accuracy. We suggest using about ten modeled structures for scoring methods, and about five simulation replicates for MD simulations as a rule of thumb for obtaining reasonable convergence. We anticipate that our study will be a useful resource for practitioners working to incorporate binding affinity calculations within their protein design and optimization process.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Refining water and carbon fluxes modeling in terrestrial ecosystems via plant hydraulics integration

Plant hydraulics substantially affects terrestrial water and carbon cycles by modulating water transport and carbon assimilation. Despite improved drought simulations in certain ecosystems through their integration into land surface models (LSMs), the broader application of plant hydraulics in diverse ecosystems and hydroclimates is still underexplored. Here, in this study, we implemented the recently developed Noah-Multiparameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP LSM) equipped with a plant hydraulics scheme (Noah-MP-PHS) across 40 FLUXNET sites globally. Employing the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) auto-calibration algorithm, we optimized key plant hydraulics parameters for these sites spanning eight vegetation types in both arid and humid climates. Noah-MP-PHS significantly improves the simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) by better representing atmospheric and soil water stress compared to traditional soil hydraulic schemes (SHSs, such as Noah and CLM). The augmented Noah-MP-PHS models reduce surface flux overestimation and underestimation, exhibiting an average increase of 0.14 and 0.15 in Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) compared to Noah and CLM, respectively. The explicit consideration of plant capacitance in PHS reveals substantial deep-layer and nocturnal root water uptake especially under dry conditions. We employed eXplainable Machine learning (XML) to quantify the model’s relative sensitivity to newly introduced leaf-, stem and root-related parameters in PHS. The sensitivity analysis reveals a rise in root parameter importance and a decline in leaf and stem parameters as conditions shift from humid to arid. These findings indicate that as aridity states vary, the most influential parameters affecting surface fluxes variation may change in parameter calibration for PHS applications. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating plant hydraulics into LSMs to enhance simulations of terrestrial water and carbon dynamics. These findings are crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to global climate changes and guide the broader application of PHS at larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of the ParFlow–CLM CONUS 1.0 integrated hydrologic model: evaluation of hyper-resolution water balance components across the contiguous United States

Abstract. Recent advancements in computational efficiency and Earth system modeling have awarded hydrologists with increasingly high-resolution models of terrestrial hydrology, which are paramount to understanding and predicting complex fluxes of moisture and energy. Continental-scale hydrologic simulations are, in particular, of interest to the hydrologic community for numerous societal, scientific, and operational benefits. The coupled hydrology–land surface model ParFlow–CLM configured over the continental United States (PFCONUS) has been employed in previous literature to study scale-dependent connections between water table depth, topography, recharge, and evapotranspiration, as well as to explore impacts of anthropogenic aquifer depletion to the water and energy balance. These studies have allowed for an unprecedented process-based understanding of the continental water cycle at high resolution. Here, we provide the most comprehensive evaluation of PFCONUS version 1.0 (PFCONUSv1) performance to date by comparing numerous modeled water balance components with thousands of in situ observations and several remote sensing products and using a range of statistical performance metrics for evaluation. PFCONUSv1 comparisons with these datasets are a promising indicator of model fidelity and ability to reproduce the continental-scale water balance at high resolution. Areas for improvement are identified, such as a positive streamflow bias at gauges in the eastern Great Plains, a shallow water table bias over many areas of the model domain, and low bias in seasonal total water storage amplitude, especially for the Ohio, Missouri, and Arkansas River basins. We discuss several potential sources for model bias and suggest that minimizing error in topographic processing and meteorological forcing would considerably improve model performance. Results here provide a benchmark and guidance for further PFCONUS model development, and they highlight the importance of concurrently evaluating all hydrologic components and fluxes to provide a multivariate, holistic validation of the complete modeled water balance.

O'Neill, Mary M. F. (ORCID:0000000221455165)↗