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At least 199 records · Page 11

Evidence of CO2-induced progressive cooling of the middle atmosphere derived from radio observations

Reflection heights of low frequency radio waves in midlatitude summer, which are closely associated with the neutral atmosphere isobaric level of 0.0052 hPa, exhibit a statistically significant downgoing trend from 1962 to 1987. This indicates a systematic decrease of air pressure at 80 km height by 10.3 plus or minus 4.9 percent over this period, to be regarded as a sufficient evidence of a true signal of progressive cooling of the middle atmosphere, expected with the growing content of CO2 and other greenhouse bases in the atmosphere. It is quantitatively consistent with a temperature decrease at the stratopause by about 4 K, as predicted by the recent model of interactive greenhouse and ozone processes of Brasseur and de Rudder (1987).

Taubenheim, J.↗

High Reliability Requires More than Providing Spares

It is sometimes optimistically hoped that a space life support system can be kept working throughout a long duration mission by repairing failed components, as long as sufficient spares are flown. It is usually assumed that the components have constant known failure rates. Then the needed numbers of spares can be computed to have any particular probability that all failed components can be replaced by available spares. This approach can provide high reliability if its favorable assumptions, including constant known failure rates, are satisfied. Other favorable assumptions are that the failures are statistically independent, repair will be successful without causing further failures, and all failures are due to internal component failures. These assumptions are not usually justified. The failure rates may be estimates that are inadequately verified because of insufficient testing. Failure rates may change due to materials substitutions, manufacturing changes, redesigns to fix failures, and new failures caused by redesigns. Failures that are not statistically independent may result from one common cause, such as a design or manufacturing error or a cascade of cause and effect, possibly caused by an external event such as a power outage. Repair may be unsuccessful or cause damage. Many failures occur at component interfaces or at the overall systems level, not within isolated components. Other failures causes are completely external to the system, due to assembly, maintenance, and operational errors or to unexpected environmental challenges. Replacement with sufficient spares can compensate for expected internal component failures but may not be able to cope with unpredictable design and manufacturing flaws, human errors, and environmental impacts. Reliability estimates based on providing sufficient spares to compensate for expected failures may be far too high. They are essentially upper bounds on reliability that might be approached if many frequent but often unconsidered failure causes can be eliminated.

spares↗

Amorphous and porous ices in cometary nuclei

The heat flux into the cometary nucleus before and after perihelion and its influence on the nucleus are discussed. The surface temperature and the associated rate of evaporation are lower than usually calculated, and the effect is strongly dependent on the porosity of the nucleus. The surface temperature reaches a maximum after perihelion, in agreement with statistical studies of comae and tails. Delayed heating of the CO2-rich inclusions deep in the nucleus leads to outbursts and splittings as far as 9 AU after perihelion, also in agreement with observation. At sufficiently high temperatures, heat transport in porous cometary nuclei is controlled by vapor diffusion. The presence of CO2 vapor in the pores significantly increases the heat flow in mixed nuclei at temperatures above 140-150 C. Closed pores move up the radial thermal gradient so that the outside layer of a cometary nucleus should become denser.

Smoluchowski, R.↗

Lower limb kinematics during treadmill walking after space flight: implications for gaze stabilization

We examined the lower limb joint kinematics observed during pre- and postflight treadmill walking performed by seven subjects from three Space Shuttle flights flown between March 1992 and February 1994. Basic temporal characteristics of the gait patterns, such as stride time and duty cycle, showed no significant changes after flight. Evaluation of phaseplane variability across the gait cycle suggests that postflight treadmill walking is more variable than preflight, but the response throughout the course of a cycle is joint dependent and, furthermore, the changes are subject dependent. However, analysis of the phaseplane variability at the specific locomotor events of heel strike and toe off indicated statistically significant postflight increases in knee variability at the moment of heel strike and significantly higher postflight hip joint variability at the moment of toe off. Nevertheless, the observation of component-specific variability was not sufficient to cause a change in the overall lower limb joint system stability, since there was no significant change in an index used to evaluate this at both toe off and heel strike. The implications of the observed lower limb kinematics for head and gaze control during locomotion are discussed in light of a hypothesized change in the energy attenuation capacity of the musculoskeletal system in adapting to weightlessness.

NASA Discipline Number 16-10↗

Unifying Radiative Transfer Models in Computer Graphics and Remote Sensing, Part II: A Differentiable, Polarimetric Forward Model and Validation

The constellation of Earth-observing satellites continuously collects measurements of scattered radiance, which must be transformed into geophysical parameters in order to answer fundamental scientific questions about the Earth. Retrieval of these parameters requires highly flexible, accurate, and fast forward and inverse radiative transfer models. Existing forward models used by the remote sensing community are typically accurate and fast, but sacrifice flexibility by assuming the atmosphere or ocean is composed of plane-parallel layers. Monte Carlo forward models can handle more complex scenarios such as 3D spatial heterogeneity, but are relatively slower. We propose looking to the computer graphics community for inspiration to improve the statistical efficiency of Monte Carlo forward models and explore new approaches to inverse models for remote sensing. In Part 2 of this work, we demonstrate that Monte Carlo forward models in computer graphics are capable of sufficient accuracy for remote sensing by extending Mitsuba 3, a forward and inverse modeling framework recently developed in the computer graphics community, to simulate simple atmosphere-ocean systems and show that our framework is capable of achieving error on par with codes currently used by the remote sensing community on benchmark results.

Radiative transfer↗

Control of nausea and autonomic dysfunction with terfenadine, a peripherally acting antihistamine

Terfenadine (Seldane) was admisistered to 14 male subjects in a randomized, double-blinded, and cross-over design to assess the efficacy of this peripherally active antihistamine as an antimotion sickness drug. Terfenadine possesses practically no central side effects. A staircase profile test was administered 4 h following placebo or a single oral dose of terfenadine (300 mg). The study revealed a statistically significant therapeutic effect from terfenadine (p less than 0.05). This led to a conclusion that, because the drug does not or only poorly crosses the blood-brain barrier, a selective peripheral antihistamine action may be sufficient in the control of motion sickness induced through cross-coupled accelerative semicircular canal stimulation using a rotating chair. This finding implies that other peripherally acting agents might be found that possess even greater antimotion sickness efficacy. The present research raises additional questions regarding current theories on the etiology of motion sickness, its associated autonomic system dysfunction, and the validity of assumptions that effective pharmacological agents must act centrally.

Kohl, Randall L.↗

Large-Eddy Simulation of Turbulent Wall-Pressure Fluctuations

Large-eddy simulations of a turbulent boundary layer with Reynolds number based on displacement thickness equal to 3500 were performed with two grid resolutions. The computations were continued for sufficient time to obtain frequency spectra with resolved frequencies that correspond to the most important structural frequencies on an aircraft fuselage. The turbulent stresses were adequately resolved with both resolutions. Detailed quantitative analysis of a variety of statistical quantities associated with the wall-pressure fluctuations revealed similar behavior for both simulations. The primary differences were associated with the lack of resolution of the high-frequency data in the coarse-grid calculation and the increased jitter (due to the lack of multiple realizations for averaging purposes) in the fine-grid calculation. A new curve fit was introduced to represent the spanwise coherence of the cross-spectral density.

Singer, Bart A.↗

Advances in Raman Lidar Measurements of Water Vapor, Cirrus Clouds and Carbon Dioxide

Narrow-band interference filters with improved transmission in the ultraviolet have been developed under NASA-funded research and used in the Raman Airborne Spectroscopic Lidar (RASL) in ground- based, upward-looking tests. RASL is an airborne Raman Lidar system designed to measure water vapor mixing ratio, and aerosol backscatter/extinction/depolarization. It also possesses the capability to make experimental measurements of cloud liquid water and carbon dioxide. It is being prepared for first flight tests during the summer of 2006. With the newly developed filters installed in RASL, measurements were made of atmospheric water vapor, cirrus cloud optical properties and carbon dioxide that improve upon any previously demonstrated using Raman lidar. Daytime boundary layer profiling of water vapor mixing ratio is performed with less than 5% random error using temporal and spatial resolution of 2-minutes and 60 - 210, respectively. Daytime cirrus cloud optical depth and extinction- to-backscatter ratio measurements are made using 1-minute average. Sufficient signal strength is demonstrated to permit the simultaneous profiling of carbon dioxide and water vapor mixing ratio into the free troposphere during the nighttime. Downward-looking from an airborne RASL should possess the same measurement statistics with approximately a factor of 5 - 10 decrease in averaging time. A description of the technology improvements are provided followed by examples of the improved Raman lidar measurements.

Whiteman, David N.↗

Environment definition, large particles

The orbital debris environment of objects larger than 1 sq met. in low Earth orbit (LEO) is fairly well defined. Objects of this size and altitude are tracked by NORAD with sufficient accuracy that collisions can be avoided by maneuvering a spacecraft away from regions of close approach. However for sizes smaller and at the higher geosynchrnous altitudes, the environment is not so well defined, and must be approached statistically. In order to determine if a significant number of these particles exist, or can be realistically produced, to cause a problem, a combination of modeling and data gathering is required.

Kessler, D. J.↗

M.S.L.A.P. Modular Spectral Line Analysis Program documentation

MSLAP is a software for analyzing spectra, providing the basic structure to identify spectral features, to make quantitative measurements of this features, and to store the measurements for convenient access. MSLAP can be used to measure not only the zeroth moment (equivalent width) of a profile, but also the first and second moments. Optical depths and the corresponding column densities across the profile can be measured as well for sufficiently high resolution data. The software was developed for an interactive, graphical analysis where the computer carries most of the computational and data organizational burden and the investigator is responsible only for all judgement decisions. It employs sophisticated statistical techniques for determining the best polynomial fit to the continuum and for calculating the uncertainties.

Joseph, Charles L.↗

The Influence of Roughness on Gear Surface Fatigue

Gear working surfaces are subjected to repeated rolling and sliding contacts, and often designs require loads sufficient to cause eventual fatigue of the surface. This research provides experimental data and analytical tools to further the understanding of the causal relationship of gear surface roughness to surface fatigue. The research included evaluations and developments of statistical tools for gear fatigue data, experimental evaluation of the surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears with a near-mirror quality, and evaluations of the experiments by analytical methods and surface inspections. Alternative statistical methods were evaluated using Monte Carlo studies leading to a final recommendation to describe gear fatigue data using a Weibull distribution, maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, and a presumed zero-valued location parameter. A new method was developed for comparing two datasets by extending the current methods of likelihood-ratio based statistics. The surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears were evaluated by carefully controlled experiments, and it is shown conclusively that superfinishing of gears can provide for significantly greater lives relative to ground gears. The measured life improvement was approximately a factor of five. To assist with application of this finding to products, the experimental condition was evaluated. The fatigue life results were expressed in terms of specific film thickness and shown to be consistent with bearing data. Elastohydrodynamic and stress analyses were completed to relate the stress condition to fatigue. Smooth-surface models do not adequately explain the improved fatigue lives. Based on analyses using a rough surface model, it is concluded that the improved fatigue lives of superfinished gears is due to a reduced rate of near-surface micropitting fatigue processes, not due to any reduced rate of spalling (sub-surface) fatigue processes. To complete the evaluations, surface inspection were completed. The surface topographies of the ground gears changed substantially due to running, but the topographies of the superfinished gears were essentially unchanged with running.

Krantz, Timothy↗

Quasiperiodic behavior in beam-driven strong Langmuir turbulence

The evolution of unmagnetized beam-driven strong Langmuir turbulence is studied in two dimensions by numerically integrating the Zakharov equations for systems pumped by monochromatic and broadband negative-damping drivers with nonzero central wavenumber. Long-time statistically steady states are reached for which the dependence of the evolution on the driver wavenumber, growth rate, and bandwidth is examined in detail. For monochromatic drivers, a quasiperiodic cycle is found to develop if the driver wavenumber is sufficiently large. The characteristic frequency of the quasiperiodic cycle and the average system energy are both approximately proportional to the growth rate. Broadening of the driver in wavenumber tends to degrade the system-wide coherence of the cycle, but its main features appear to survive on the scale of the coherence length of the driver.

Robinson, P. A.↗

Investigation of geomagnetic field forecasting and fluid dynamics of the core

It was established that the total absolute magnetic flux crossing the core- mantle boundary has been a constant of the core motion for the last 50 years. This provides a scalar constraint that could be added to the geometric modelling procedure. The GSFC 8 8/80 model is being evaluated. The absolute magnetic flux linking the CMB to that model was plotted as a function of time during the span covered by the data, and increasing truncation level. The inclusion of the standard error of each Gauss coefficient derived from the statistics of fit in the GSFC 9/80 model is useful. The magnitude and sense (upwelling or downe welling) of vertical fluid motion adjacent to the core-mantle boundary was calculated using the model. Standard errors were found to be sufficiently small at all but one or two of the 40 or more critical points of B sub r. They do not nearly overlap the value gamma u/gamma r = 0. It is concluded that the core is upwelling and downwelling at an observationally detectable level.

Benton, E. R.↗

Passive microwave observations of the Wedell Sea during austral winter and early spring

The results of multispectral passive microwave observations (6.7 to 90-GHz) are presented from the cruises of the FS Polarstern in the Weddell Sea from July to December 1986. This paper includes primarily the analysis of radiometric observations taken at ice station sites. Averaged emissivity spectra for first-year (FY) ice were relatively constant throughout the experiment and were not statistically different from FY ice signatures in the Arctic. Detailed ice characterization was carried out at each site to compare the microwave signatures of the ice with the physical properties. Absorption optical depths of FY ice were found to be sufficiently high that only the structure in the upper portions of the ice contributed significantly to interstation emissivity variations. The emissivities at 90-GHz, e(90), had the greatest variance. Both e(90) at vertical polarization and GR(sub e)(90, 18.7)(defined as (e(sub V)(90)-e(sub V)(18.7))/e(sub V)(90 + e(sub V)(18.7)) depended on the scattering optical depth which is a function of the snow grain diameter and layer thickness. The variance showed a latitude dependence and is probably due to an increase in the strength of snow metamorphism nearer the northern edge of the ice pack. The contribution of variations of near-surface brine volume to the emissivity was not significant over the range of values encountered at the station sites. Emissivity spectra are presented for a range of thin ice types. Unsupervised principal component analysis produced three significant eigenvectors and showed a separation among four different surface types: open water, thin ice, FY ice, and FY ice with a thick snow cover. A comparison with SMMR satellite data showed that average ice concentrations derived from the ship's ice watch log were consistent with the satellite concentrations. The surface based emissivities for FY ice were also compared with emissivities calculated from scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) satellite radiances. Best agreement was found at 6.7 and 10-GHz, while at 18 and 37-GHz, SMMR emissivities were slightly lower than surface based results. For the three lower frequencies agreement was found within a confidence limit of 95% and for 37-GHz within about 90%.

Grenfell, T. C.↗

Analysis of Fine-Mode Aerosol Retrieval Capabilities by Different Passive Remote Sensing Instrument Designs

Remote sensing of aerosol optical properties is difficult, but multi-angle, multi-spectral, polarimetric instruments have the potential to retrieve sufficient information about aerosols that they can be used to improve global climate models. However, the complexity of these instruments means that it is difficult to intuitively understand the relationship between instrument design and retrieval success. We apply a Bayesian statistical technique that relates instrument characteristics to the information contained in an observation. Using realistic simulations of fine size mode dominated spherical aerosols, we investigate three instrument designs. Two of these represent instruments currently in orbit: the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and the POLarization and Directionality of the Earths Reflectances (POLDER). The third is the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS), which failed to reach orbit during recent launch, but represents a viable design for future instruments. The results show fundamental differences between the three, and offer suggestions for future instrument design and the optimal retrieval strategy for current instruments. Generally, our results agree with previous validation efforts of POLDER and airborne prototypes of APS, but show that the MISR aerosol optical thickness uncertainty characterization is possibly underestimated.

Knobelspiesse, Kirk↗

Wind speed statistics for Goldstone, California, anemometer sites

An exploratory wind survey at an antenna complex was summarized statistically for application to future windmill designs. Data were collected at six locations from a total of 10 anemometers. Statistics include means, standard deviations, cubes, pattern factors, correlation coefficients, and exponents for power law profile of wind speed. Curves presented include: mean monthly wind speeds, moving averages, and diurnal variation patterns. It is concluded that three of the locations have sufficiently strong winds to justify consideration for windmill sites.

Berg, M.↗

Estimation Filter for Alignment of the Spitzer Space Telescope

A document presents a summary of an onboard estimation algorithm now being used to calibrate the alignment of the Spitzer Space Telescope (formerly known as the Space Infrared Telescope Facility). The algorithm, denoted the S2P calibration filter, recursively generates estimates of the alignment angles between a telescope reference frame and a star-tracker reference frame. At several discrete times during the day, the filter accepts, as input, attitude estimates from the star tracker and observations taken by the Pointing Control Reference Sensor (a sensor in the field of view of the telescope). The output of the filter is a calibrated quaternion that represents the best current mean-square estimate of the alignment angles between the telescope and the star tracker. The S2P calibration filter incorporates a Kalman filter that tracks six states - two for each of three orthogonal coordinate axes. Although, in principle, one state per axis is sufficient, the use of two states per axis makes it possible to model both short- and long-term behaviors. Specifically, the filter properly models transient learning, characteristic times and bounds of thermomechanical drift, and long-term steady-state statistics, whether calibration measurements are taken frequently or infrequently. These properties ensure that the S2P filter performance is optimal over a broad range of flight conditions, and can be confidently run autonomously over several years of in-flight operation without human intervention.

Bayard, David↗

A Survey of Logic Formalisms to Support Mishap Analysis

Mishap investigations provide important information about adverse events and near miss incidents. They are intended to help avoid any recurrence of previous failures. Over time, they can also yield statistical information about incident frequencies that helps to detect patterns of failure and can validate risk assessments. However, the increasing complexity of many safety critical systems is posing new challenges for mishap analysis. Similarly, the recognition that many failures have complex, systemic causes has helped to widen the scope of many mishap investigations. These two factors have combined to pose new challenges for the analysis of adverse events. A new generation of formal and semi-formal techniques have been proposed to help investigators address these problems. We introduce the term mishap logics to collectively describe these notations that might be applied to support the analysis of mishaps. The proponents of these notations have argued that they can be used to formally prove that certain events created the necessary and sufficient causes for a mishap to occur. These proofs can be used to reduce the bias that is often perceived to effect the interpretation of adverse events. Others have argued that one cannot use logic formalisms to prove causes in the same way that one might prove propositions or theorems. Such mechanisms cannot accurately capture the wealth of inductive, deductive and statistical forms of inference that investigators must use in their analysis of adverse events. This paper provides an overview of these mishap logics. It also identifies several additional classes of logic that might also be used to support mishap analysis.

Johnson, Chris↗